Kind: captions
Language: en
[Applause]
I'm going to give you guys three
numbers, a three number sequence, and I
have a rule in mind that these three
numbers obey. And I want you to try to
figure out what that rule is. But the
way that you can get information is by
proposing your own set of three numbers
to which I will say yes, it follows my
rule or no, it doesn't follow my rule.
And then you can propose what you think
the rule is. Is that fair? Yeah. Yeah.
Okay. So here here are the three
numbers. 2 48.
2 48. You don't need to continue the
sequence. You can propose a totally
different sequence. Whatever you want to
propose and I will simply say yes or no.
That follows 48
32 and 64. Yeah. Uh those also follow my
rule. Okay. What's the rule? What do you
think? Uh multiply by two. That is not
my rule. What? That's not my rule. But
you're allowed if you want propose three
other numbers. 3 612. 3612.
Uh-huh. 3612 follows my rule. 10 20 40
10 20 40 That follows the rule. Yeah,
I'm still multiplying by two. I know. I
know. I know what you're doing. And yes,
it follows my rule, but no, it's not my
rule. 5 10 10 and 20 follows my rule.
100 200 400 follows my rule. 500,000
2,000 follows my rule. Want want me to
keep going? But do I just keep going?
You're going to tell them your rule? Am
I doing it the wrong way? Am I Am I
approaching this the wrong way? You're
totally fine, but you're approaching it
the way most people approach it. Like,
think strategically about this. You want
information. I have information. The
point of the three numbers, right, is to
allow you to figure out what the rule
is. Okay. Okay. I'm going to give you
the numbers that I don't think fits the
sequence and then see what you say. So,
I'll say 2 47
fits my rule. So, whatever I propose is
right. So is your rule like you can
propose any number? So the rule is
anything we say is yes. No. Damn it.
But you are on the right track. Now hit
me with three numbers. 369 follows my
rule.
Oh, that didn't follow my rule.
This is good, right? 5 10 15. That
follows my rule. What? Oh, really? Yeah.
I don't believe this.
1 2 3 1 2 3 follows the rule. What about
789? Follows the rule. Yes, that follows
the rule. 8
16 39 fits the rule. Excellent. But
we're no closer to the rule. I want you
to get to the rule. How about 1 7 13
follows the rule. What? 11 12 13
I don't know how to do this. Does not
follow the rule. 1098 does not. Oh, so
is it all in ascending order? Booyah.
Okay, up top. Yes. First ones to get it.
You guys nailed it. That's the rule.
That's the rule. Incre numbers in
increasing order. Numbers in ascending
order. Oh, so much. 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 15 25
doesn't matter. Any numbers in ascending
order.
I was inspired to make this video by the
book The Black Swan by Nasim Talb. Now,
the black swan is a metaphor for the
unknown and the unexpected. I mean, in
the old world, the theory was that all
swans were white. So, each instance of a
white swan would make you think, "Yeah,
that theory is pretty good." But the
point is, you can never prove a theory
true. And in fact, when people found
Australia, they realized that there were
black swans. What was interesting for me
was that everyone I spoke to came up
with a rule very early on and then only
proposed numbers that fit with that rule
they were thinking. I was looking for
you guys to propose a set of numbers
that didn't follow your rule and didn't
follow my rule. I was looking for you
guys not to try to confirm what you
believe. You're always asking something
where you expect the answer to be yes,
right? Like you're trying to get at it.
Yeah. But instead, you want to get the
no. You want to get the no cuz that's
much moreformational for you than the
yes. Like if everything's giving a
guess. That is true. That is really true
once you say that. That is what's so
important about the scientific method.
We set out to disprove our theories and
it's when we can't disprove them that we
say this must be getting at something
really true about our reality. So I
think we should do that in all aspects
of our lives. If you think that
something is true, you should try as
hard as you can to disprove it. Only
then can you really get at the truth and
not fool yourself.