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Just when it seemed like the neverending
pattern of violence would repeat forever
in the Middle East, Trump shocked the
world by dropping more explosive tonnage
on Iran's nuclear program than America
dropped on Hiroshima or Nagasaki. While
it is far too early to know if this will
bring peace or more chaos, it is clear
that this is a pivotal moment in Middle
Eastern history. And joining me today to
unpack the likely outcomes of this
critical turning point is Free Press
columnist and host of the Breaking
History podcast, Eli Lake. We discuss
whether Trump is an Israeli puppet,
whether Iran actually had a nuclear
breakthrough, or if there is something
more nefarious going on, and what all of
this means for America and Trump's
America, Inc., strap in because this is
a wild time to be alive.
What do you think about the people who
seem very convinced that all of the US
just dances to Israel's tune, that Trump
is working with Netanyahu?
Um, yeah. What where does that stem
from? And do you think there's any truth
to it? It's a canard, but it goes back,
you know, centuries. This is a classic
anti-semitic trope that Jews are not
loyal citizens. Uh, this was a huge part
of the Drifus affair in France that
inspired Theodore Herzel to come up with
Zionism itself. Um,
and then in the modern context, since
the state of Israel was born in 1948,
there has always been this uh view that
Israel is somehow manipulating things.
Um, it depending I mean, if we had
another person on here who wanted to
make that argument, I could probably go
through fact by fact about how they got
the argument wrong, but here's just I
mean, we don't even need to do that. On
Tuesday morning, Trump went out to the
reporters and I think he put on Truth
Social. He said, you know, I don't know
if my logic curse, he said, Iran and
Israel have been fighting. They don't
know what the f they're doing. And then
he demanded that Netanyahu turn, you
know, the planes around that were
planning a bombing mission over Iran.
That doesn't look like a puppet to me.
He he he looks like Trump's calling the
shots. And then as for like this idea
that it's the Israelis that are
injecting the intelligence and so forth,
it is a conspiracy theory. The truth of
the matter is is that if you just look
at this objectively,
we've seen the demonstration that the
Israeli MSAD has extraordinary
intelligence and penetration of the
Iranian regime.
Um, we've also seen the demonstration
over tragically decades now that the
United States intelligence community in
my view is too big, gets big questions
wrong. uh as somebody who's covered it
very closely, I know of at least twice
in the last 20 years that American uh
spy networks in Iran have been rolled up
by the Iranian regime. So it asks to
leave the question is that on the one
hand, did Israel share information with
the United States? Of course they did.
The United States is Israel's most
important ally. Allies share
intelligence. That's normal. The
question that I would ask is why would
you trust the American assessment on
Iran over Israel which just demonstrated
they have this place wired. It strikes
me that just using the razor of alcheum
that Israel's intelligence probably be
better. Um, and then there's a lot of
sharing um that we don't know about cuz
intelligence world exists, you know, in
the shadows for a reason. But I would
imagine that a lot of information that
Israel is sharing is verified through
electronic sources by the Americans. And
just to kind of give give you a little
bit of a background on this, the US is
better than anyone in the history of the
world in terms of technical collection,
meaning our ability to hoover up stuff
on the internet or even in the air in
terms of wireless
um is is is unsurpassed. We have the
ability to kind of basically probably
listen to any tap anyone's listen to any
conversations we want, read anyone's
email that we want. Great. Um, it's
extraordinary. What we're not as good
at, and the Israelis, I think, are much
better at is what's called, you know,
human sourcing.
Getting agents to turn to work for you.
It's a nasty business. The Israelis are
very good at that. The Soviets used to
be excellent at that. The Russians are
ex quite good. The Chinese are quite
good. Uh, the US I think is less, you
know, we we we do it, but we're not as
good. Iran seemed to go from side dish
to main dish really fast. Do you think
that something just clicked over from uh
their capability to build a nuclear
weapon or was this we knocked out the
air defense and so it's just
opportunistic?
Well, it's a couple things. I think you
have to look at the proxy strategy as
part of the nuclear strategy, which is
to say what the proxies were when they
were intact because Israel decimated
them before this strike as part of the
October 7th war. Um, but what you'd have
to say is that
if the Iranians were to get a nuke, it
would have provided a kind of nuclear
umbrella for these forward
uh positioned militias. So,
Israel was in a strategically perilous
situation. You could argue on October
7th, horrific attack from Hamas. It's
not clear whether the Supreme Leader of
Iran or the late generals of the uh
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps knew
that this was in the works. There was a
meeting in Lebanon with a very senior
revolutionary guard court official. They
that the Israelis put this intelligent
out a few intelligence out a few months
ago would show that there was sort of
discussion about it. I think the
Iranians wanted to have more of a
coordinated attack. The Hamas went
through with it anyway. But in terms of
culpability, Hamas in many ways is
sustained through uh Iran. It's part of
this proxy network. So that's one
element of how the Iranian nuclear
program is related to that. The other is
that it's the line of defense in some
ways or at least it was hoped to have
been the line of defense. um for Iran if
there was this day that eventually came
where the Israelis would attack the
nuclear program. So the response would
be like are you sure you want to do that
because Hezbollah had hundreds more than
100,000 rockets. The um Hamas had their
own capabilities. So an attack on Iran
would bring these attacks again from the
proxies. So if you think about October
7th, the Israelis are caught unaware.
It's one of the worst days in the
history of Israel, the history really of
the Jewish people. Worst killings of
Jews since the Holocaust.
And since then, Israel has
systematically gone after those proxy
networks, including the Houthies. The
Houthis are still standing, but every
single one of them um is now pretty much
gone. After Israel killed the leader of
Hezbollah, Hassan Nasallah, in the fall
of 2024,
the Iranians launched a barrage of
ballistic missiles largely successfully
defended by Israel. Israel responded by
a daring attack that took out Iran's
sophisticated air defense systems. So
they were left vulnerable in the
country. That was the window of
opportunity. Then you add to that, and I
should say in the fog of war, we don't
know, but Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime
minister of Israel, and the Israelis
themselves claim that they saw recently
um unprecedented steps to the last piece
of the puzzle, which is to put um the
either the uranium in the actual warhead
or finish the warhead design so that
they were getting to that place where uh
the Iranians could have a nuclear weapon
whenever they Again,
to me, I think the Kazus belly was
established on October 7th, even before.
So, it's not an Iraq war situation where
you're going to worry about the
intelligence. But the the extent of the
Iranian program was such especially and
their activities enriching to 60%,
there's no peaceful purpose for that.
That's not for energy. That tells us
that they they had a weapons program and
it was they were just sort of inching
closer and closer to the goal line. Now,
do you think in the fullness of time as
we find out whether they actually did
make some big leap forward or this was
uh like you said just written in stone
from the time that October 7th happened?
Do you think it's going to matter to
public opinion about this attack? No.
Um, I I actually think that um
I mean I again I'm I haven't nobody has
seen the intelligence except for the
Israelis and I suppose the the American
pardon, you know, Trump and Netanyahu
perhaps have seen the intelligence and
and and their top intel people and
military people. But um what matters in
this case is success. I mean, I think
that we wouldn't have had a huge debate
in America 20 years ago about the
weapons of mass destruction in Iraq if
the post
um this is a point that Jonah Goldberg
made uh recently, but I think he's
right. if if if we'd stabilized the
country and there wasn't an insurgency
and you know Saddam Hussein had fallen
and Iraq was you know largely pacified
and rebuilding I don't think it would
have mattered much um if you would have
found the stocks of weapons of mass
destruction it's it's only when the war
becomes a slog and sucks the United
States into a kind of you know nation
building stabilization effort that
obviously lasted years and years and
years That's when, you know, you're
looking for like, okay, well, why did we
get into this war? What's going on? I
think what we're going to find out, and
and we're starting to see, I mean, it's
early days, but the Israelis kind of
came out with a statement about their
damage assessment. I think we're going
to find out that the Iranian program has
been set back by years. That will be a
success. The United States didn't get
dragged into a long drawn out occupation
of Iran. uh there wasn't the nightmare
scenario where the regime precipitously
fell toppled too soon and then you know
there's anarchy on the ground and
there's nuclear materials and so forth
uh there will be some negotiations we'll
see how those go but I think you'll see
this as largely a successful war what's
going to be the criteria by which they
determine whether this was success or
not I think the success criteria is that
the Iranian program from soup to nuts
from not just the enrichment facilities
which we all talk about but like the
factories where they built the
centrifuges, the places where they
turned the enriched uranium into the
metal that they need, you know, to sort
of, you know, fuel a bomb or reactors
and things like that. All of the
different pieces. You look at all of the
scientists who have been taken out in
the first few hours of the war, uh,
that's accumulated kind of intellectual
capacity. If it turns out that the
Iranians, it's just too daunting a task
or they're several years away, I think
that will be the success. But then in a
way it's not not fully a success I think
until there's an organic I mean this is
sort of separate from the war but I
think it's related which is that this is
a regime that um you know would be best
left in the dust bin of history and the
ideal way to transition out of that
regime would be for the kind of
democratic uprising that we saw at the
end of the cold war in Eastern Europe or
for that matter uh in 2000 with
Slobanovich
uh uh in Serbia after he tried to steal
an election. So if we can see a organic
democratic transition and it's got to be
organic, meaning it's got to come from
the Iranian people and it's got to lead
to some sort of democratic outcome and I
think that's very much in the cards. The
Iranians have had five national
uprisings since 2017. Before that there
was 2009 and the green movement. Every
few years the Iranian people remind us
that the majority of them despise their
leaders. So in my view that there is
some there is a strategy not so much for
the Trump administration or for foreign
governments but for people to very
similar to what we had in the 1980s
uh with the solidarity movement in
Poland where lots of people supported
the Polish kind of aspirations to govern
themselves and not be a satellite of the
Soviet Union. I think we have a we have
an opportunity in Iran. My dream, I'm
not saying anybody would listen, is that
if all of the sort of misplaced
solidarity on college campuses in the
west for Hamas after October 7th instead
was, you know, kind of focused on the
Iranian people. Um, that would be
wonderful, but it's and it's not just,
you know, thoughts and prayers. There
are things like Elon Musk can do. like
Elon Musk, there is Starlink that can
defeat internet censorship in Iran, but
the software that's necessary uh or the
actual phones themselves to have
Starlink on your phone is not really in
Iran. Let's flood Iran with Starlink
phones. If the devastation is, as Trump
certainly would have us believe, and
these facilities have really been
decimated and they see it up close, do
you think this increases the likelihood
that there is a Democratic uprising? I
would say that historically there there
was a massive bombing campaign in Kosovo
before the uprising in Serbia. But this
is a humiliation for a regime and you
have to look at it from the perspective
of the Iranians. The Iranians, the
Iranian regime, the Islamic revolution
gave us um kind of Islamic tyranny. They
call themselves an Islamic republic.
It's not really a republic. It's a it's
a tyrannical system. And the system is
very much infused with um uh an almost
end times belief in the um hand of God.
So that God is favoring this regime and
that it has the momentum on its side.
This is a demonstration that I mean to
put it in those terms that maybe God
does not love this regime. I think the
Iranian people are over and done with
it. The Iranian people are I mean I've
been to Iran once but I would just say
the Iranian people they they just want
to move on and I think they would like
to live in a kind of normal modern
country and to work it out themselves.
There have been examples of kind of you
know constitutionalism in Iranian
history recent history I should say.
They're not destined to live under a
dictator. Um but what it means is for
the mid-level people in the regime, the
apparat, you know, maybe the below
brigadier general in the basi, which is
their kind of internal militia force or
their anti- riot police, people like
that who on the one hand have to know
that they're they're despised by most of
their neighbors and now you have
evidence that like the grand plan isn't
working. And by the way, that has been
the message really, I would say, since
the daring operations in Lebanon against
Hezbollah, the killing of of Nosella and
the top Hezbollah leadership. Um, there
has been a kind of just momentum on the
Israeli side. And at a certain point,
there's been no real response. And like
you know I think the most telling thing
that we saw in Trump's statements and
tweets or truth social posts was when he
said uh I want to thank Iran for
informing us before their attack on
Qatar. I mean that that exposes that
this was just theatrical. It wasn't a
serious attack. So the regime will try
to sort of say oh we survived. We won.
That's their narrative. I I have to
think that nobody even in the inner
circle is going to believe that. And
then you've got a very old supreme
leader. He's 86 years old, Ayat Alam. He
is now trying to get his son to be sort
of to to to be the next supreme leader
because, you know, he may not have many
years left, many months left, who knows?
Um I don't think that's going to go down
very well. So there could be a real
fight over succession and that divides
the elites and the leadership. there you
have the sort of opportunity. But the
key thing to watch here is, and this is
true, by the way, not just in Iran, it's
true in every single example of
successful peoplepowered
revolutions, which is will the um you
know, will the will the police officer
will the will the national you know,
will the will the army guy follow the
order to shoot at the peaceful
demonstrators?
And that is something that nobody I
can't know from the outside. You can't
know. But I would say that this
humiliation of the regime maybe gets us
closer to that. It's it's almost like
you have to assume you got to put
yourself in the mindset of somebody
saying, "Do I really want to be the one
who's going to have the blood on my
hands yet again? Do I want to follow
this out? Are those incentives worth it
to me?" And there's a strategy obviously
for uh the insurgents, the the Democrats
in this particular situation. and they
have to create a space where they're
welcoming of the defectors, if you will,
from the regime. Um, but I have reason
to believe that the that there are
Iranians who understand that. But we
also have to understand the regime has
been utterly brutal when it comes to
suppressing these sporadic but
increasingly frequent kind of democratic
uprisings and just you know evidence of
disgust and and
uh with with how they're being governed.
It's it's corrupt. They're isolated.
They're endangered. They're there's a a
drinking water crisis in Iran right now.
There have been bank collapses. Um, and
meanwhile, uh, you know, it's it's a
powerful message. If you look at the
luxury apartments that were where the
Iranian generals were were sleeping that
the Israelis got at first, the Israelis
made sure to put out the video of that.
Most Iranians don't live that well. So,
these are things and we'll have to see.
Again, it cannot be, you know, the CIA
or the Mossad, you know, pulling the
strings. You can't have a guy on a white
horse coming in like the son of the Lea
Resza Palavi although I think he means
well and there might be a role for him
or Mariam Rajavei who lives in Paris. It
has to come from the Iranian people. But
I do think that there's an opportunity
and I think that there's something that
the West and the and the people who care
about this can do. That's to me that
would be the the full victory. Speaking
of the West, what do you think of the um
division that's growing in the right?
So, you've got some people that just
feel absolutely betrayed by Trump
getting us involved in what they see as
another war. They seem absolutely
unconvinced that Iran was about to have
a nuclear weapon. You've got Tulsi
Gabbard saying uh sort of cryptically,
but they don't have nuclear
capabilities. They have not authorized
the bomb. Like, what are we doing? I
actually think that um there it will be
insignificant. Um,
you know, first of all, the intervention
in Iran, which was, I mean, you think
about it, it was one bombing mission
demonstrating new weaponry,
uh, like what, it lasted 45 minutes and
then they were on their way home. The
second thing is that we didn't get
sucked into World War II, a regional
war, or a regime change, nation building
war. I don't think any of that was a
possibility with Trump as the president.
And frankly, I don't think even if you
had, you know, President, you know, John
McCain, Wolfwitz, neocon, it would have
been a possibility because America is a
different place in 2025 than it was in
2003. There's an interesting discussion
as to why in 2003 we thought that we
could do anything in the world and build
nations in the Middle East. Um, I was
around back then. I was a kind of a
junior State Department correspondent
for UPI and I later worked for the New
York Sun. But, you know, I believed it.
I'll I I cop to that. But we don't think
that anymore in part because of the
experience of Afghanistan and Iraq. Um,
so anyway, what we have is a situation
where
uh I think it was a short successful
war.
President Trump is the leader of the
movement and things are going to move
on. And the problem for the Tulsi
Gabbard, Tucker Carlson crowd is they
predicted that this would lead to utter
catastrophe and they oversold the
negative consequences of this and I
think in in that sense they may lose
some credibility because though their
predictions didn't come true but I also
think that it'll be fairly easy to
simply say that we didn't we were
against Iraq and Afghanistan style wars
but these kind of wars wars are okay or
these kind of wars are different and I
so I don't expect there to be uh a kind
of permanent split. It may be impossible
at this point in terms of the
administration for Tulsi Gabbert to stay
in the administration because the
president has said now openly I think
twice that he doesn't care what his
director of national intelligence
thinks. And if by the way, if that is
the case, he shouldn't be the national
intelligence director of national
intelligence. But uh you know, it's an
unconventional administration, so we'll
see what happens. But um I just don't ex
I just don't see this as being a major
split. I think that there was a big
split before and Trump did what he said
he was going to do, but he's been saying
it for 10 years. Iran can't have a
nuclear weapon. Yeah. I was going to say
though that that's the drum that he
beats. And so I I'm not sure that this
is going to blow over as readily as
maybe you do because if Trump was saying
uh they can't have a nuclear weapon and
then if the debate becomes but show me
the evidence that they were that
something happened that upgraded the
threat to like an imminent threat and I
have a feeling they're going to have a
hard time doing that. think the real
answer is this was opportunistic that
Israel had taken out their air cover
that we could finally go in and do it
that we could force them back to the
table. I think I think the way that this
is going to play out in the near future
is Trump is going to be looked at as
somebody who said um we have an
opportunity. I told them they had 60
days. They didn't come to the table. Now
people know that I'm for real. And when
I look at the world through a real
politique lens, I'm like yeah that makes
sense. That honestly from a real
politique standpoint is probably what he
should do so that people know that he's
not playing around. But the words we
were told was that this was a suddenly
something had happened. We have
intelligence. This is now an imminent
threat and I have a feeling that's going
to remain thin. I hear you. But I I just
think that these things I I think you're
we'll see. But I just think it's not
going to be like a gotcha. I think that,
you know, nothing succeeds like success
is a kind of is a cliche, but this was
pretty successful military operation.
The odds are that Iran actually um
doesn't fire either directly or through
a proxy because I think they've already
kicked the IAEA out and said, "Uh, no,
we're still going to do this." We'll get
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back to the show. I expect there will be
some sort of negotiations.
Iranians are over a barrel though. I
mean, at any point Trump can say, "Okay,
boys, tell the Israelis to go back in."
The Israelis have an air corridor. It's
remarkable to me. I mean, let me just
take a moment to kind of marvel at this
fact. the new leader of Syria is a
former member of al-Qaeda in Iraq and
was an abs at one point in his you know
interesting journey was a dedicated
anti-American religious fanatic jihadist
and he was asked do you have any
problems with the Israelis using Syrian
airspace and he said nope fine with me
now there's a reason for that and it's
be it's because he was drawn gone into
the Syrian civil war of the 2010s.
And the drivers of the worst cruelty,
the worst war crimes in Syria in that
time was the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps and their proxy militia Hezbollah.
The Sunni jihadists on the other hand,
while Israel certainly didn't, you know,
had I mean, obviously there are
theological major distinctions there,
but the Israelis built a field hospital
uh over the Syrian border that was open
to the partisans who were fighting in
that civil war as a kind of humanitarian
gesture.
um that what's interesting to me is that
this guy who you know has the background
that he does, he is not interested in a
fight with Israel, he has far he is far
more interested in defanging
um Iran. And that goes, by the way, if
you look at the statements from Saudi
Arabia, from the Gulf States, they
initially criticized it. They're
covering their bets. These are cautious
monarchies.
But then war is over and they're all
it's nothing but praise for Israel. Um
that's a sea change in the region. And
it I think it will be very good for the
Trump the first term Trump foreign
policy success known as the Abraham
Accords which saw normalization of
relationships between
um Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Morocco.
I might be leaving a few out, but
there's a chance you could get the big
dog, Saudi Arabia, to finally recognize
what they had been have for nearly 80
years called a Zionist entity. That's
enormous, Tom. So, in that respect, um I
just think that Iran is in an impossible
position. The other thing to notice, by
the way, Israel attacks Iran. Where was
Russia? Iran provides Russia with the
drones that are, you know, aimed at
apartment buildings and hospitals and
other civilian targets in Ukraine. Where
was the Chinese? Where was the remnants
of its proxies like Hezbollah? Do you
think that Russia is just too bogged
down in what they're doing? Yeah, part
of it is that the Russians were bogged
down, but part of it is that the kind of
axis of China, North Korea, Russia, Iran
is not an alliance based on shared
values. It's not it's it's not an
alliance based on shared history. Um,
it's a little bit like the five
families, you know, I mean, when when
the FBI is about to crack down on the
mafia, the five families will
occasionally work together. They try to
work together, but then you know every
few years there's a there's a gang war
and so they don't the Iranians learned
also they don't have any real friends.
Uh the Iranians tried to get you know
the UN security council to to to to jump
into action. um you know the chancellor
of Germany who has been so critical of
Israel in the Gaza war came out with a
statement saying that Israel is doing
the world's dirty work. So what's
interesting here is that the Iranians
are totally alone and
uh no air defenses. Uh they have no
ability to stop the Israelis. The
Israelis obviously have a kind of
unprecedented world historic level of
intelligence penetration of the Iranian
regime. Has it's crazy how many of their
leaders their military leaders were
about to take out. Um, so this is an
interesting moment because
it's it's not to say that, you know,
you're not they're not going to be on a
on a boat in the Pacific and you dictate
the terms of surrender, but it's the
negotiations now are something like
that. It's not the position that Iran
was in when they were negotiating the
nuclear deal with um, you know, what was
known as the P5+1 that that was part of
Obama's big legacy. It's not the
position they were even in, you know,
two weeks ago when they were, you know,
meeting with Steve Witoff. It's a very
different world for them right now. So,
they're going to have to accept the
terms because at any given moment, Trump
can say, "All right, well, if if you're
if you're not going to play ball, then
uh I'll unleash, you know, I I'll
unleash the the big dog." As the
American public, I start asking myself,
okay, wait, why are we going so hard at
Iran? So, uh, you stop them from having
nuclear weapons. If, like, if I'm to
believe that everything has been
demolished, there's going to be years
and years and years. At some point, this
just starts to feel like you're saying,
"I told you to come to the table. You're
not coming to the table, and I'm bigger
than you, and so I'm going to keep
smashing you until you come to the
table." And I do think at some point,
even if I mean, look at the way that
public opinion has turned on Israel. At
some point, if you just keep smashing
them, uh, people go, "Wait, why are we
doing this?" even if we don't have boots
on the ground. Well, okay, that's a fair
point, but I would argue that there are
a couple things that are really good
about it. The first thing is is that if
Iran did go nuclear or it went to the
precipice of nuclear, which is basically
the same thing, then there will be a
proliferation cascade effect. Saudi,
Egypt, Turkey, most analysts believe
would go nuclear as well. So then you
have five counting Israel which is an
undeclared program nuclear powers in the
most volatile region on earth and that
increases exponentially the chance of a
nuclear exchange which we've managed to
avoid since 1945
almost miraculously. M um second of all,
contrary to uh some of the sloppier
commentary that I've read on the
anti-war side, Iran has lots of American
blood on its hands. And it doesn't go
back. It's not ancient history. It's not
just the Marine Barracks bombing in
1983, not just Cobar towers in the
1990s. It's the Iraq war, then the
Afghanistan war. They were providing
insurgents with the roadside bombs known
as IEDs that were maming and killing
lots of our soldiers. Um it's the fact
that they there I mean this is not a you
know intel fakery uh as Tucker Carlson
recently has implied. the uh Justice
Department under Joe Biden, the same
Justice Department that wanted to arrest
Trump um and indict Trump uh has two men
in custody uh that they have formally
charged in an unsealed indictment with
trying to murder President murder Donald
Trump on behalf of the Iranians. Um so
that they have taken to a kind of
strategy of supporting
uh assassinations in our country. Masi
Alani Jad, the great uh Iranian women's
rights activist who now lives in
America, was also on that hit list, as
was the former national security adviser
John Bolton, former Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo. Even lower level officials
like um you know, one of Pompeo's
adviserss Brian Hook. Also on this list,
this is these were you can all check
them. These are you know this is not
again this is not sources say. These
were statements from the Biden
administration.
Um, so this is this is a a rogue state
in every sense of the term. Uh, it's the
leading state sponsor of terrorism. So,
I'm going to lay out what I'll call my
own internal conspiracy theory and you
check me and tell me where I become. So,
the way that I see this, I think that
um, if everything moves forward
swimmingly right now and Iran just
engages and says, "Look, we don't want
to get bombed again. uh let's just play
cake, get Trump out of office, let's buy
ourselves, you know, three and a half
years, great, everything will go
swimmingly. If, however, they keep down
the road of pushing back um trying to
exit out, kicking IAEA out and um making
all kinds of saber rattling noises
about, you know, we're um going to
continue with our nuclear program. Uh
then I think Trump would have he he
would have to really get the American
public on board. Um, and I don't think
he's going to be able to do that without
something happening either to our
servicemen. So, if they bombed one of
our bases, that would give him the cover
that he needs, if there really is a
sleeper cell here in America and they
trigger off, or if there's a false flag,
which I don't want to get too
conspiratorial, but you know, those are
sort of the options I think where you
could get the American people back on
board with this. Um, and my thinking is
the reason that Trump is so hellbent for
this is that um, so I've gone to the
Middle East and I've been to Saudi, I've
been to Kuwait, I've been to the UAE,
and man, as an entrepreneur, when you
land there, you're just like, they are
doing something right. You're walking
through the airport. It feels like it's
a seven-star luxury hotel. It's bananas.
You can just feel the money everywhere.
Uh, they're making huge investments into
architecture, infrastructure. It just it
it feels like a country that has a sense
of where it's headed. I think America's
lost a lot of its own self um sense of
pride. And so we're pulling ourselves
apart. They have a sense of what they
have to accomplish. They know they have
to get out from a reliance on oil. Trump
sees an opportunity. These guys clearly
have the capital. He's looking at it
like a almost like a VC where it's like,
"Well, I'm America Inc. I want you to
come invest a bunch of that money in
America Inc., But I've got to get all of
you guys to chill out and stop blowing
each other up. Uh seems like our biggest
problem here is Iran. Let's chill them
out so that we can then get the Abraham
Accords to spread across uh the region.
And so he's got a reason to hammer Iran
into submission, but it's not the reason
that he puts forward. And so I think
he's going to find himself stuck in this
position of like, man, for the love of
God, will you guys just calm down so
that we can get economic prosperity
sweeping across the nation? which is why
I think he's so silent to supportive of
what I have a feeling you're not going
to like this but ethnic cleansing of
Gaza where it's just literally carpet
bombing and if I'm like okay
I've got to get that leveled out so that
there's calm there so that Israel who's
clearly an economic powerhouse they can
do their thing get Iran to calm down so
that we can get Abraham Accords all
across the Middle East and now this area
that has like I'll call it a 20-year
clock to modernize and get off of
reliance on oil and into a modern
probably financial-based economy. I
don't know if you know who Ray Dalio is,
but I met him in the UAE and he was like
basically Abu Dhabi is the future of
investments
and it's just like all the pieces start
coming into place and I'm like, huh,
with a realist lens on again, this just
feels like, oh, I get why you've got to
make Iran, the Iran problem and the
Hamas problem go away. Uh, so it'll be
interesting to see how it plays out. How
crazy did all of that sound? Well, no,
you know, Tom, some of that makes a lot
of sense. I mean, you and I disagree on
ethnic cleansing, but um I'll just
concede up front on Gaza that uh I'm
sure that there were mistakes and
decisions that Israel made that led to
more civilians being killed, although I
do think that they were an impossible
situation given the way that Hamas
fights. And we should maybe bracket that
for later in the conversation or maybe
another episode. Um, but let's just talk
about the big part of what you said,
which is, all right, we've got these
economic titans in the Gulf. Uh, they're
trying to get off the oil and we want
them to invest in America. That doesn't
strike me as a conspiracy theory. That
strikes me as smart American policy.
that is if we can get billions of
dollars invested into the American
economy, which Lord knows we need, and
we can start modernizing our
infrastructure, maybe because of that
investment or whatever it is, uh, and
everybody can make money, that's seems
like it's pretty good for Americans.
Second of all, I do think that you have
to look at the Iran threat is not just a
threat to the region, it's a threat to
America. And I think Iran with a nuclear
weapon would have been just a security
nightmare and for the reasons that we
talked about earlier. So that was a good
thing.
And then finally third, I don't know if
America needs to go back. is a very
specific ask which is the underground
fortresses of Natans, Foro and Isvahan
required
a weapon that only America had which was
33,000
tons or whatever it was that could
penetrate deep into the earth to get to
these underground fortresses.
Um we will have to see whether this was
successful. Lots of analysts are saying
that, but the early I think based on
what the Israelis said today, they were
successful. And so the rest of this is
like I just look at Israel's
capabilities. So will Americans care if
Israel has to go back and take out more
targets in Iran and it's not USGIS?
The Iranians again, they attacked the
Lod air air base in Qatar, but they told
us ahead of time. They didn't hit
anything. You know what I mean? It was
purely symbolic. So, the Iranians to a
certain extent understood they didn't
want to tempt the tiger. Um, and I'm
just saying that right now the reality
is very different for Iran. They don't
have a lot of options.
So they're focused right now on regime
survival. The sad news is kind of
getting back to our first part of the
conversation. They've arrested something
like 700 people. Oh, they've already
killed 24 people internally, right? So
they're trying their best to prevent
that democratic transition and I think
that's extremely important. But I also
don't think that that's really for Trump
to decide. That's again Iranian people
are in the lead. I think that we can be
Trump doesn't seem interested in
meddling to be honest. No, he's not
interested. That's but that's kind of
maybe a good thing because what you
don't want is to discredit Iranian
people have to be the authors of their
own story. You know what I mean? That I
want the Iranian people to take their
country back, but I realize it's for the
Iranian people to lead. So, we have to
support them. So I I see your point like
you know he's trying to take care of
this threat to stability in the region
and the hope is is that these prosperous
and wealthy countries might invest in
the United States. I don't think that
that's something that he would um
try to cover up. I think it would be
something that I mean if he could run
again I mean this is a separate
question. And I don't think he can, but
he sometimes he might without a
constitutional amendment without
agreement without taping my mouth shut.
There's no way. I think that that's what
what you just laid out as something that
would be politically popular, not just
with MAGA fans. I think it would be
politically popular with Americans. I
think Americans would look at it and
saying, "Okay, you you defanged an enemy
of the United States. You've set back
their nuclear ambitions uh for a while.
We'll see. We'll see if it if it really
is only a few months and we start to see
them doing it again, then that'll be
reassessed. But again, I think it's it's
going to be a the program was really
significantly damaged. Um, and you've
now opened up space where uh you've
you've made peace between Saudi Arabia
and Israel and now the Saudis and the
Emiratis
and uh others are going to invest in the
United States. I it strikes me as just a
like, you know, so much waning. are
going to get sick and tired of the
winning. You know what I mean? Like all
that seems pretty good to me. So I, you
know, I think that the downside would be
um if we found out that they they had
more secret sites that even the Israelis
didn't know about. The Iranians become
defiant. Perhaps homminate keels over or
he's pushed aside and the the new
supreme leader or the new people in
charge are uh even crazier and talk to
me a little bit about that crazy because
the when I the more I look at the Middle
East and admittedly you know whatever a
couple years ago this wasn't even really
on my radar but the more that I look at
the Middle East the more what I see is
and take NBS who's um for my money sort
of the most extreme in terms of how
rapidly he's trying to pull Saudi Arabia
into the 21st century. Tom, I am so glad
that you said that.
Uh you you're coming from a
entrepreneurial background, right? Yes.
You've you've been to Saudi. Yes. Uh so
you've seen I mean I've covered the
Middle East for a long time.
The Saudi Arabia after 9/11 was a
Janisfaced ally. What I mean by that is
that we had military assets there. We
had an alliance with them going back to
FDR in the 1930s.
But they also exported the most
poisonous and extreme jihadist Islamic
ideology abroad, including by the way in
in America even. So what MBS has done is
something it started before him. But
what he's done as the crown prince is he
is really turned Saudi Arabia around.
Saudi Arabia now is no longer in the
jihad export exporting business. It's in
the counter jihad business.
Ditto for the United Arab Emirates. The
only country by the way that still
Janice faced in that regard is Qatar and
that's another story. But all of the
other Gulf kingdoms, all these other
Gulf states have turned it around on
this. that was our number one issue
besides Pakistan which is a separate
problem after 9/11. These countries are
finally doing it for themselves and
they're reaping the reward with this
economic boom. Um, so I'm so glad that
you mentioned that because as you
probably remember, wasn't so long ago
that there's a there's a dark side of
NBS, which is he had a contributor to
the Washington Post murdered in um,
Ankura or Istanbul in Turkey and that
was exposed by the Turks and uh, the
Democratic Party in particular, Trump
was the president then, wanted to
basically cut off relations with Saudi
Arabia. I am so grateful they didn't
succeed even though what I think he did
to uh Jamal Kosigible was a heinous
crime. Heinous. Um so it's I guess what
I'm saying is what I appreciated about
your comment there because I know you
knew about that
is it's shows that geopolitics is not a
morality tale. It's not an allegory.
It's not a heroic journey. There are
usually dis choices between bad and
worse. And sometimes you have to ex you
kind of have to live with this guy did
some very bad things to his domestic
political opponents.
But he is finally doing what we have
pleaded with the Saudis for generations
to do, which is to get out of this kind
of jihad export business. We'll get back
to the show in a second, but first let's
talk about what's happening out there.
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And now, let's get back to the show.
Yeah, I mean, this is where I get
fascinated with the other side of what
you do with the Breaking History podcast
as a student of history, but sort of a a
latecomer to history, man. You look back
in history at our own nation and you
just see an a never-ending string of
tragedy and horrors. Uh so, it's like to
some extent it's like, what's your goal?
Where are you trying to get to? I
definitely look at this all through a
very realist lens. I think Trump does as
well. And I think he's misunderstood
because people are grappling trying to
find like uh ideology. And what you're
going to see, I think, if you map Trump
as somebody who looks at everything as a
business deal to be done, trying to
bring prosperity back to America in in
no uncertain terms, in ways that help
him and in ways that help him that make
me deeply uncomfortable. But
nonetheless, again, not saying I agree
with anything, just looking at, okay,
how's this playing out? What's the
northstar? Going uh to these countries,
making sure that you're participating in
the wealth party like that, suddenly it
you can make sense of the way that he
moves. Um so looking at the Middle East
as that, as this future hub of uh
certainly investment, I think wherever
you find the hub of investment, you're
going to find the hub of innovation. And
I can feel the energy, the the
psychological, cultural energy draining
out of America um and rushing into the
Middle East. Surprisingly enough, nobody
was more surprised than me. I'm very
interested to see what happens to China.
That's like my personal focus. Um, and
when I see all of that, I'm like, yeah,
we have to do something to ensure that
America does not slide down the totem
pole, which from where I'm sitting, we
are very much in risk of doing. Well, in
a sense, just a counter, I mean, I I
first of all, I share your concern. I
think we have deep institutional
problems. I think we have a politics
that doesn't work. I think we have a
real crisis in our universities where
there's a kind of bourgeoa radicalism
that um you know kind of has has really
crippled in many ways the humanities at
least in our universities. Are you
paying attention to the New York mayoral
race? Oh god, don't get me started. Um
I'm trying to get you started. Yeah.
Well, you know, I mean that's a real
challenge. I think that all of his ideas
are uh well I they have been tried and
they've failed.
As a Jew and a Zionist, I I don't like,
you know, his his spin on global inifat
and things like that. But leaving that
aside, I mean, the idea that you're
going to have a mayor, first of all, the
mayor doesn't have the ability to do a
rent freeze that he's promising. So,
good luck with that. But we know every
economic, you know, every economist
looks at rent freezes and says all
you're doing is you're shrinking the
availability of apartments. You know
what I mean? Like all you're doing is
you're you're shrinking the supply and
there's obviously great demand in New
York. Um you want cityrun, state-run
grocery stores. I mean, I don't want
that. I don't think Americans really
want that. Um so that Yeah, I mean I'm
I'm super, you know, I Yes, that's that
that that's a problem. So I see your I
share your concern. On the other hand, I
don't know, America is a really big
country. I've been to Austin, Texas, and
I see a lot of innovation. Um,
you know, in some ways, I think Austin
might be the kind of beneficiary of
people fleeing the Bay Area in Silicon
Valley because of the crazy things that
are happening in in in California and
the dysfunction of their state
government. Um, and you know, but I do
think in a in a way these things are
interconnected. America, like to have a
12-day war that so far looks like a big
win for America and Israel to
demonstrate that we can kind of do and
Israel can do what, you know, might seem
like science fiction. That is a boost to
our prestige. It's a boost to our value.
Um, and I would just say this because
it's something I disagreed with Trump in
his Middle East and what in his speeches
in in in in Saudi. Yes, it's a great
thing to look at Dubai and Abu Dhabi and
Riad and to marvel at how these cities,
you're right, that the airports feel
like sevenstar hotels. That's a great
line and they deserve some credit. But
one of the reasons why they were able to
have the space to invest in their
economies that way and to turn their
countries around is because they didn't
have to deal with the prospect because
America, you know, fought ISIS. America
took out the un the instability and the
the drivers of instability. More
importantly, I would say, you know, had
no had America not used its air force to
destroy the ISIS caliphate in the mid
2010s, which was started by Obama, but
really finished by Trump.
What would you do you think that there
would be this economic miracle we're
seeing in the Gulf? I don't. I think you
would have seen a spread of this
extremist kind of terrorism and um you
know and and I think that dealing with
Iran
um and the threat that Iran posed
particularly on the nuclear side uh
opens up more space because Iran was an
enemy of the Gulf countries at the end
of the day as well. Um, so th those
things are kind of locked together, but
I also want to just emphasize and agree
with you that we need to turn our own
country around so we can have some of
that innovation and get that spirit
back. I'm at the end of the day an
optimist America. I think we've had I
mean, you talk about history,
uh, we had a really rough run from the
late 60s to like the early 80s. We had a
tough 15 years.
Um,
but we managed to sort of get out of
that and then we had, you know, all of
the benefits of the internet and the
personal computer and all the things
that sort of we take for granted today.
Um, so I again I'm I remain an optimist
in America in that regard, but I also am
a realistic optimistic and that I'm and
I'm appreciative that you you know you
sort of see it and you're not just
satisfied with mediocrity. You're not
just satisfied with inefficiency, not
just stat satisfied with like
stagnation. That's very important. Yeah,
definitely not that. Um, now going back
to the I see an idea playing out in the
Middle East that I would love to get
your color on. And the idea goes like
this. You have
different factions of Muslims themselves
that are trying to modernize. And just
as Christianity has changed over time,
the Muslim religion feels like it's
going in two different directions.
You've got people that are recognizing
the future is going to be economic. It's
going to be financial investments.
They've got to be a place that the whole
world feels comfortable making
investments and coming in and they're
going to feel safe. And then you