Kind: captions
Language: en
It is a crazy day. Israel has attacked
Iran's nuclear sites from inside Iran.
Netanyahu claims it was necessary to
curb an imminent threat of Iran getting
nuclear weapons. Boy, are people going
to argue that one. Several high-ranking
military leaders were killed. Multiple
nuclear scientists were killed as well.
Iran tried, it seems, to launch drones
in retaliation, but those seem to have
been swatted down by Israel. So, this is
a breaking news situation. Uh last
night, Israel just launched Operation
Rising Line, the first time they're
sending missile strikes directly on the
nuclear sites of Iran. This claim is
that they have enriched their uranium to
the point where in just a couple months
they might be able to create uh nuclear
warheads, which is why they wanted to do
this preemptive attack. Now, I know your
position on preemptive attacks. Do you
feel like this is, you know, past the
pale for you or again, this kind of
escalation is kind of what's normal? The
question that's going to be debated in
the media is going to be somewhat
unhinged because none of us know what
the intel actually says. So answering
this as a thought exercise is going to
be way more potent. Israel has way more
information than we have. Iran obviously
knows exactly what's going on. Trump
probably has a ton of information.
They're going to give us some of that
information in the coming hours and
days, but we're not going to have the
full picture. So to respond based on
what we know now. Yeah. I mean this
could just as easily be us going into
Iraq and being like, "Hey, weapons of
mass destruction. We're going to just
start [ __ ] killing everybody. Oh, and
PS, while we're here, we'll just take a
bit of that oil." I do not have enough
information to know if this is justified
or not. So now running it as a thought
exercise if Iran is still you know
indeterminate in terms of when they're
going to be able to actually produce
weapon we weaponsgrade uranium and this
is you know years off in the future then
this is a political move almost
certainly by Netanyahu who obviously is
in deep political trouble sees an
opportunity to get the West back on his
side. I think the West has flipped hard
on Israel over the course of this now
politically still seems to have a ton of
backing from the Trump administration,
but in terms of the average person on
the street, like yo, I think that they
are rapidly losing that. And so if they
can convince the world this was an
imminent threat, these guys were really
about to do us super dirty. If my
understanding of the way Israelis are
mapping this situation, it goes
something like this. Iran has always
been the issue. We always thought we
were going to go after Iran first and
then deal with the other pockets of
Hezbollah, Hamas, and that was going to
be down the road. Well, October 7th
flipped that on its head. Now we're
doing it in reverse order. And so, first
it was Hamas, Hezbollah, and now we're
going after Iran. Now, is that just
Well, once the train started, there was
no stopping it. And from the moment we
decided to go into Gaza, this was a
non-stop train all the way to Iran.
great political uh maneuvering for
Netanyahu, who seems to be increasingly
unpopular. He becomes a thing that they
all point at and say, "All right, this
guy's just a wararmonger, sociopath,
murderer, genocider." If war is the tool
being used by him to stay in power, it's
like, yeah, I get it. But again, I don't
have the data, so I don't know if that's
actually what's happening or if it's
like, yo, they really were about to
enrich this. So despite the fact it
seems clear that Netanyahu and Trump
were communicating, seems clear that
Trump preferred a diplomatic solution,
but he had been warning, according to
him, warning Iran directly to their
face. You've got an attack coming that
you you're not anticipating. It's worse
than you expect. Pull up his tweet. It's
in the in the dock. I gave Iran a chance
after chance to make a deal. I told them
in the strongest of words to just do it.
But no matter how hard they tried, no
matter how close they got, they couldn't
get it done. I told them it would be
much worse than anything they know,
anticipated, or were told, and that the
United States makes the best and most
lethal military equipment anywhere in
the world by far. And that Israel has a
lot of it, and with much more to come,
and they know how to use it. Certain
Iranian hardliners spoke bravely, but
they didn't know what was about to
happen. They're all dead now, and it'll
only get worse. The way he talks is so
crazy. So insane. But uh there has been
this slaughter or this great death,
destruction, and there's still time to
make this slaughter um with the next
already planned attacks being even more
brutal come to an end. Iran must make a
deal before there is nothing left and
save what was known as Iranian Empire.
No more death, no more destruction. Just
do it before it is too late. God bless
you all. And that's his statement. We
are going to see if if Iran
was getting that message directly from
Trump and they still pushed forward.
That certainly says something. It is
admittedly a little hard to believe that
Iran was like, "No, no, no. We just want
nuclear power." Like, come on guys.
Like, this is going to be fine. Because
I know at one point they were being
told, "Hey, we can get you uranium. You
just can't enrich it yourself. You've
got to be at the point where we're
giving you the kind of uranium that one
is enriched by somebody else who's
already a nuclear power. Two, the kind
that you could only use in centrifuges.
And then three, that way we could
completely control how much you have. We
know what it's being used for, etc.,
etc. Now, listen, I get it. As a
sovereign nation, you don't want anybody
telling you what you can and can't do.
But this is also why it's really bad PR
to put out into the world that you want
to destroy both America and Israel. That
that strikes me as you're going to get
some kind of response. And so hearing
Trump talk about it, I mean, after the
attack, he's very measured, like
shockingly measured. I want to see them
do well. We would help them do well, but
they just have to understand that
they're not going to get a nuclear
weapon. And so again, I'm always being
spun. I know that Trump is spinning me,
Netanyahu is spinning me, Iran is
spinning me. So, we're all sort of
groping around in the dark trying to
figure out what's actually happening.
But if you've got a US president who's
like, listen, we don't want to keep
browbeating you with sanctions, I'm the
crazy deal guy, like, let's do a crazy
deal. Like, let's get you in a position
where you're not being sanctioned to
death, that there's trade going on. Uh,
let's get cheaper energy going. like you
could do a deal conceivably with Trump
if what he's saying is true and that
you're like I'm not even going to play
that card. I I want my [ __ ] uranium
enrichment program and I'm willing to go
to war over it. It's like yeah, let's
actually touch on that because I think
the communication and the back and forth
and this potential scops is what's
causing a lot of this chaos. So I just
saw something about uh 45 minutes ago.
It's this breaking from Axios. So, the
public perception campaign was
intentional to make it seem like the US
was totally opposed to any Israeli
strike to Iran to ultimately trick Iran
into letting their guard down. So,
that's stunning if true. So, supposedly
these two uh Israeli officials have
claimed that Trump and his aids were
only pretending to oppose Israeli attack
in public, saying, "Don't do this. We're
trying to keep the peace." But
ultimately, that was just to lower the
defenses so that they actually could get
a successful attack. It's possible. And
that actually is true. And I think
that's where if I was Iran, can I keep
trusting Trump if I know his allegiance
is actually to Israel and he keeps
saying he's going to make these deals
there. There is no universe in which
Iran trusts Trump. It would be utterly
shocking if Trump trusted Iran.
He's said publicly that I don't trust
anybody. In international politics, that
is very wise. You want to align your
selfish desires. I think about this in
business a lot. Uh, it's not about
trust. It's about are my selfish desires
aligned with your selfish desires?
Because when our selfish desires are
aligned, we're going to pull in the same
direction. This has been the fascinating
collision between Trump and Elon. Hey,
we we get along great. This is amazing.
Elon's even willing to show deference in
public. It was like, whoa. Like, this
guy is known for being hardcore murial.
Like, people do what I say. And
publicly, he was very like, it's the
president, clap for the president,
standing next to the desk, like all of
that. I know some people have had a
little bit of beef with like he wasn't
showing enough difference, but I was
very impressed. Then their desires
became misaligned and all of a sudden
it's he's on the Epstein files. Just
wait. It's going to come out. It's like
dropping nukes uh left, right, and
center. So that is the right way to
think about people. People are there are
no permanent alliances, only permanent
um Oh god, what interests? Yeah, I think
you're right. So, it's like, hey, if the
US and Iranian interests align, a deal
will get done. If they don't, they
won't. I'm not currently mapping Trump
as having secretly tried to get the
Iranians to lower their guard. I could
be wrong, and then I will update my
mental map. But my mental map currently
is he just really likes to do deals. He
wants to get a trade agreement. Yeah.
Like, hey, I want to see these guys do
well. probably naive about the
difference in values, but these are
people that are calling us the big Satan
and he's willing to go to people that
chant death to America that call us the
big Satan and be like, "Let's do some
deals, bro." And I really think it's
sincere. He is so economically minded
that he's like, "Well, but if we can do
a good deal for you, then of course,
like there's something here." So if you
were in his position or even just had
his ear and you're now seeing all of
this unfold and you understand this
thing of aligning these interests, what
interests can we even see us being
aligned with both Iran and Israel and
making it work together? Oo. So in terms
of where our long-term interests lie,
our long-term interest right now with
the Trump administration is very clearly
Israel. Like Israel all down the way,
up, down, left, right, B, a slug, start.
If I'm honest though, I have not taken
the time to map out why. So, it's like
at the surface, Apac, cool. Ton of money
into American politics. Like it or not,
boys and girls, like money makes
politics move. It's become so naked and
in our faces. It's [ __ ] crazy, but it
is nonetheless true. Elon obviously uh
saying so ungrateful that I spent all
this money to get what I wanted and I'm
not getting it. They're just We're not
even hiding it anymore, David. That is
the thing that I'm like, Jesus. You like
that or I It has an upside and it has a
downside. So, it can get normalized to
the point where kids growing up now
today that just is how the world is.
There's not even a sense of like this is
gross. It just this this is just what it
is. This is the world. Whereas when I
was growing up, it was like so back
channel and secretive and it was like
did you know there's this thing called
lobbyists? You're like lobbyists? And so
that all felt scandalous. like the mere
presence of a lobbyist, at least to me
as I started learning about it, felt
scandalous. So, I don't think that's
going to feel scandalous to the next
generation. It's just going to feel
broken and like that's how it is. And it
creates a sort of defeist mentality of
like there's no way to push back. It's
so deeply entrenched. Anyway, going back
to what these allegiances are, I have a
very strong mental map right now that
the Jewish diaspora,
they're not monolithic. that that's one
of the most important things to know
about them is that calling them a them
is already a mistake. But the Jewish
diaspora, some portion of it is very
they really want to help protect the
nation of Israel. And so I think one of
the most effective ways that they do
that is by being extremely economically
successful in the US, being able to
leverage the economics within the
system, uh, to have their voices heard,
to put political pressure, but they're
also, I have a feeling, and I'm going to
be doing more of a deep dive. This is
going to be, I think, one of my call in
the next four to six weeks, accelerated
maybe by what's going on now, deep dives
where like I need to understand what's
going on. like I have the world's most
peripheral sense of especially the
religious conflicts between Judaism and
Islam and so looking at that I think is
going to be very interesting. So anyway
to look at this and not understand the
religious implications I think would
also be a mistake. So I think the US
very Christian uh Jews obviously have a
Judeaic ethic those two are married when
you think about Christianity as being
sort of uh part one and part two. So the
Old Testament is still very much a part
of the New Testament. Like you both are
taught in Catholicism. I don't know as
much about Protestantism, but I'm going
to guess there as well. You've got a
religious affinity between the US and
Israel. That's going to be way stronger
than between the US and Iran. Islam is
part of the Abrahamic, you know,
monotheistic religion. So they do have
that tie. And again, if we were thinking
like these religions actually share a
lot of similarities compared to even
more, you know, disperate religions. So
why do you think again it seems like
there are some interests that could be
aligned, but for you, you were saying I
just can't see it. This conflict is
going to continue. The the value system.
Okay. So I'm planting a flag here in
terms of what I the mental map I have
now. For my long-term audience, they'll
be used to this idea. But for anybody
that's new that's never heard me talk
about things like this before, I state
where I'm at. So one, I can understand
how things evolve over time. Um, but
these are
it's a mental map. But my mental map
looks like this. There is a break
between Christians and people of an
Islamic faith around one very simple
idea. They both believe their prophet
has the correct word of God. And once
you believe that your prophet has the
correct word of God, then it becomes,
well, what does your prophet say to do?
If your prophet says to do the exact
same things that my prophet says to do,
oh, okay, cool. We're good. And over
time they would have found some way to
be like God spoke through both of them
because they're saying the same thing.
But when you understand how minor the
differences are between Catholics and
Protestants and it led to the most
vicious and violent almost like 150
years of war, it's insane. So Martin
Luther writes, I think 92 or 95 thesis.
He puts them out. It kicks off a hundred
years of religious wars between
Catholics and Protestants that people
were still dying from. This was like
back in the he wrote them in like 1517
or something. And then the wars rage
into the 1600s and then you have the 30
years war which kills like 20% of
European population. I mean it's just
absolutely bananas, dude. The number of
people that die over this and that's
like minor. So now you've got one
religion that's like our prophet is the
final prophet. And so yeah, he gets that
your prophet existed but your prophet is
just like an early dude saying some
minorly interesting things. But this is
the final word of God. And so uh you all
need to convert. So now the big thing
that okay but Jews don't believe in it.
So where where's the problem? Why why is
there able to be a connection? I think
early mental map. Ah my gut instinct is
because um the Jewish faith does not
prostilitize. They do not seek to
convert people. But Christians and
Muslims do. So now you have two
prostitizing religions that both think
they have the final word of God and bam,
they're smashing. You also have
democracy. So we look at Israel and we
go, "Oh, I recognize those values. I
recognize that kind of governmental
structure." We look at um certainly Iran
post the 1979 revolution. We're like,
uh, I don't recognize it. I don't
recognize it visually. Doesn't because
they used to look American. It could
have been like a you see one of their
universities could have been a picture
taken Stanford in 1978 right but boy
after that revolution it becomes very
different so you've got a theocracy
uh and in the other camp you have a
democracy uh and so there's just enough
of that and then you pour the money on
the fire and all of a sudden you get
okay there's a much tighter relationship
between the US and Israel for all the
reasons mentioned. So again, as maybe
just a selfish American, I want to now
know I understand now there's this
religious, you know, un like throughine
that's causing a lot of this conflict.
You you just noted in history that has
led to hundreds of years of war. This
might be again, it's already been going
on for decades in the Middle East. It
might continue to go. I'm trying to
wonder is this going to escalate? And if
so, you know, should the US or why
should the US even care to get involved
at all? Is this going to escalate? I two
hours ago I would have said obviously
Iran is like bro we're going to [ __ ]
smash you they have a ballistic missile
program that is not to be trifled with
but their immediate response was to send
a bunch of drones and as far as I can
tell again it's early maybe more
happened maybe I'm stuck in propaganda
and don't realize it but it seems like
Israel was like nope we anticipated that
and they just wiped them out and the
part that I don't have enough
information on but is the intriguing
part to is that Israel launched these
attacks from inside of Iran. These were
not launched from Israel. I think it was
both, right? They sent missiles and also
had their drones attack from within.
Makes sense. But the part that is of
extreme note, how long would it take to
plan that attack to I mean did they was
this like what Ukraine did where you
send it in in in uh trucks or do they
have actual facilities that they built
out there? Now hey psychological warfare
is a huge part of the game. So, what I'm
about to say again could be propaganda,
misinformation intentionally, but
they're saying we already have the next
attack lined up. What they're trying to
get Iran to believe is if you like don't
just take your slap,
more is