Kind: captions
Language: en
LA immigration riots kicked off and
we're going strong for days. Trump says
it would be a good idea to arrest
Newsome. Newsome tells him to come and
do it already. Cash Patel says there's
no videos of Epstein's victims. Pen
Bondi, however, says there's tens of
thousands of them. Someone doesn't know
how to count. And Ray Dallio drops an
article titled Civil War. Drew, this
feels like a rerun of the 2020 Summer of
Love where things are burning and people
are calling it mostly peaceful. I get
that we're always being spun, that this
is a political game, all of that, but it
does admittedly get a little exhausting
in terms of rather than people actually
laying out their arguments from a
position of cause and effect, it's
always uh fighting to capture people by
the emotions and lead them instead of
down a path that is designed to get
people to a stated end goal where it's
like we can all agree yes, that is where
we want to end up. Instead of that, it's
just pure emotion. And I was interviewed
today about the economy and where things
are going. And I realized, man, I'm like
really painting this incredibly dark
picture of where this goes. Because
right now, I feel like I am on
uh a train with no breaks. And given the
physics of the human mind, the physics
of the uh political system and the
physics of the monetary system, it just
feels like conflict is the only
conceivable destination. It it something
would have to come out of left field to
stop this. It's one thing where we're
getting forced to have conflict or this
is something that's been happening for
the last hundreds of years. I think this
recent example is a bit more
manufactured than actually what's
happening. So, let's like level set very
really quick. Um, over the weekend in
Paramount, California, there was a
protest that erupted. That's where we
saw a lot of the tear gas getting
released. That's where we saw the ways
were on fire. Um, and then the following
day, the 8th, the 9th, that Saturday,
that Sunday, um LA protests happened in
different parts of the country, uh, of
the city in response to that. So, then
the next day there was a protest in
downtown LA. That's where some we saw
some of the looting of the Apple store
and another store. Um LAPD was called.
That's when the Marines were called in
as well. Sunday there was a little bit
of protest as well, but we haven't seen
any crazy footage. It kind of died down.
There was a protest Monday at LAX, but
as of right now, it seems like people
are taking their foot off the break and
now it's kind of we're taking a break.
Taking their foot off the gas or taking
their foot off the gas, excuse me. Um
and then until June 14th, this weekend
where there's supposed to be another
national organized immigration uh
protest. So just hearing the news over
the weekend, level setting, putting all
those things together, what do you think
is happening in culture right now
specifically for these protests, some
calling them riots? I think the honest
answer is that the country is divided at
the extremes, that the extremes control
the agenda. And for a very long time
now, the two parties have been pulling
away from each other. And the pulling
away has accelerated dramatically in the
last call it decade. And when I nest
that inside of the debt crisis that
we're in, uh, when I nest that inside of
the AI revolution that's coming that's
going to upend jobs, Ray Dallio wrote an
article that he dropped this week just
titled Civil War. And man, I really I
don't want to play that card as
something that is sensational. So I play
that card as something that's merely
directional. not saying like Alex Jones
would have you believe that it's
actually going to happen this weekend.
Um, but I do think that
the fences of our democracy are being
tested and that we've got people going
up to check for weaknesses in the system
uh to see if they can topple it over. I
think that there there is a derangement
that happens when a society goes well
for too long. You get to the point where
people begin to think that meals just
show up on their table uh magically,
that air conditioning works magically,
that roads are magical things that are
mana from heaven and they just fall and
that you don't have to earn uh a modern
civilization. They have no context for
something moving backwards. They have no
sense of what it looks like when a
country goes broke. Uh they have no
sense of what it looks like when a
company goes into open revolution.
revolution becomes like this buzzword,
this cool thing that people want to
somehow be a part of. Uh, with
absolutely
no view on what it would be like to live
through a level of disruption like that.
They think what they're doing is tearing
the system down, giving a finger to the
man, um upending the tables, that
they're going to end up on top, that uh
all of the people that have been
historically marginalized, to use a
very, um weaponized word that all those
marginalized people are suddenly going
to have a good time of it. And that's
not how it works. What ends up happening
is one elite group gets replaced by the
other that there is massive bloodshed
economic uh horror show and then finally
people get to the point where they they
just cannot bear the death anymore and
then the culture resets. History has
shown that you actually have to go
through that because of debt. I don't
want to make this about debt. So I'll
just say that moments like this uh come
around every time you get latestage
empire. And I know like whatever 18
months ago this was like everybody was
obsessed like when was the last time
that you thought about the fall of the
Roman Empire. Uh and then very quickly
like memes do it became sort of cliche
and we all moved on. But the reality is
this is what happens. Like you get
latestage empire and
the culture loses faith in the values
that got it where it was which is almost
always discipline, hard work, um
delayed gratification, like all of the
things that we're not willing to do
anymore. And you sit in that abundance
long enough and you get to the point
where for a whole host of reasons,
including you have economic weakness.
And so you've got people that won't take
jobs. So you want to bring in immigrants
who will work for less. I mean, it's
like literally this thing repeats and
repeats and repeats. And then you begin
to learn that when you don't have shared
values within your borders that you tear
yourself apart from within. And so it's
like when I look at it through that lens
of the
the repeating cycle of the fall of
empires and the way that it's usually on
the back of a technological revolution
AI economic problems in terms of getting
overextended with debt. We're 36
trillion in debt. Having open borders or
something close to it having a culture
that spawns weak men. It's like a tale
as old as time. And so I'm looking at
this and going, look, you can brush off
the what the LA immigration riots and be
like, all right, listen. At the end of
the day, is that really the straw that's
going to break the camel's back? No,
probably not. But when you start to go,
wait a second, people placed cinder
blocks on the street on purpose so that
they could be broken and turned into
rocks. Wait a second. There are
pamphlets all over the ground that tell
people exactly how to riot. Well, uh,
wait a second. There are there's some
organization that's dropping off face
masks. So, people are putting money
behind this stuff. Now, you do that when
you have an agenda. And is it a confused
agenda? Does this sort of latestage
empire just bring this out in people
where it's this really muddied, muddled
thing where some people feel guilty? Uh,
some people think that again this is
mana from heaven and that everybody
should have access to it and we
shouldn't have to be disciplined. Um,
I don't know because I haven't
thankfully lived through one of these
before. But the more I look at history,
the more I'm like, don't brush this
moment off because directionally we're
going in a direction that ends with open
revolt, rebellion, collapse.
So none of those things strike me as
good in physics. They say like every
force has an equal and opposite force.
And I think that it's very paramount to
bring that up right now because I think
that these riots are the exact opposite
force of Trump's deportation style. I
think when Obama deported 9 million
people, nobody blinked the eye because
they were all in detention centers by
the border sent back. And I think with
Trump weaponizing um ICE, weaponizing
the military, bringing them into
sanctuary cities when Texas is the
number two place of immigrants in the
whole nation. But there's been one Texas
uh state side overturned. He wanted to
throw the military in Chicago. In
California, in New York, it seems like
this is a politically motivated game in
order to get his base rallied and say,
"Okay, we're going after those
immigrants and if you stop us, you hate
America." where they're not going into
detention centers and trying to get
illegal immigrants broken out. They're
not going to South Central in the gangs
pulling people out. They're going to
Home Depot. They're pulling people out
of schools. They're deporting people who
have jobs here. And the the worst of
worst of them, they're not coming to
America to become a teacher to turn
their life around. The worst worst of
them are coming to America to continue
their criminal empire. So, it's one of
those things where we want to act like
we're doing this in a virtuous way. And
at the top, you know, immigration is
precious and you should respect rules
and respect law and order. You're
absolutely right. All those things are
true, but going into schools and taking
moms from kids and saying, "We're doing
this so that way this is going to help
the country." No, that's a cruel way to
do that. And I think that there's a
better way to do that. So people who are
powerless, who aren't in Senate, who
can't overturn the um executive orders,
who can't stop those deportations, they
now rally up and they want to be the
resistance force that's pushing against
those people in those tanks, in those
military military vehicles. And that's
where we're having this disconnect.
though to act like um ICE was just
walking down the street trying to rile
up some gang members and some dude threw
a brick at him and started a war. It
it's we're starting at at question seven
instead of starting at the beginning
like what caused this riot? Why do you
think these people are doing this? Do
you think that people are just bored and
they're going outside their house like
I'm bored. Let me go break some [ __ ] I
think that we need to start talking
about the causes and that first domino
that falls instead of judging the pile
of dominoes on the floor and calling it
a mess. Man, you make some really good
points, but I think that we're going to
pretty violently disagree on this one.
So, this will be fun. Uh, okay. So,
first, the things that I that you're
saying that I think are really
brilliant. Um, there is a way to do this
that agitates and there is a way to do
this that is more calming. And the fact
that Obama was deorter chief and yet did
not create this kind of backlash
certainly says something. Now, I think
that we were certainly in a different
time politically when he was in office.
There wasn't this kind of divisiveness
and just as a person, he did not elicit
the kind of response that people get
from Trump. Um, I think that, call it
what you will, but there are people that
have an allergic reaction to Trump. So,
uh, Trump derangement syndrome obviously
is the word that everybody uses. I don't
say it to be inflammatory. I just say it
to signal that there are some people
that no matter what he says or does,
it's bad. It's Hitler. It's fascism.
there's no way that they're going to be
cool with it. Uh now, if the reports can
be believed, according to Tom Hman, um
they have tried to get people at
detention centers and certainly
California is not cooperating and they
say, "Nope, you may not pick people up
in the detention centers." According to
Tom Hman, they are being forced to go
out onto the streets and pick people up
there. Now, is that true? I don't know.
But from his own mouth, uh, he has said
that they've reached out to Newsome that
they have said, "Hey, we would like to
work within the system to pull people
out of prisons, jails, detention
centers, and move them back." And
they've said no. Now, why they can't use
the executive authority there, I don't
know. So, that one, I'll admit, I was
like, "Okay, I'm going to need to look a
little bit closer on that one to see if
they had that card and didn't want to
play it and now they are playing a
political game." Trump is an extremely
astute political operative and so yeah,
I have no doubt that he is playing some
game trying to uh make a point. I don't
think in any way, shape or form he likes
feeling like um
any governor doesn't dance to his tune,
let alone Governor Nuome, who obviously
he's got beef with and they've been
going back and forth. uh he'd be a fool
to think that Newsome isn't thinking
about running um against the Democ or
the Republican party. Obviously, Trump
is not eligible uh for election. I would
just like to remind everybody and I'm
very excited about that unless that did
not come across. Uh so I I don't doubt
in any way, shape, or form that there's
um gamesmanship that's being played. But
the overwhelming thing that I thought
watching all of this unfold because you
hear people like Karen Bass, I think
Newsome said similar things, but you
hear people saying like, "Well,
everything was fine until you came in."
And my thing is, time out. This is like
saying, "Well, my kid was fine as long
as I let them play on their iPad, eat
ice cream, and not go to bed." And it's
only when I try to get them to do that
that they throw a fit. It's you can't
allow people to break the law and expect
to have law and order. And there's a
reason that people were I mean you you
can go into a normal neighborhood now
and find CVS just keeps everything
locked behind the counter because people
just going in when you could take if it
was $999 or less like you could just
leave and you weren't going to be
prosecuted. And so those kinds of
policies have had tremendous impact on
people going, "Oh, I can get away with
this stuff." And so at some point, this
is like super nanny territory where yes,
when you go to put your kid to bed,
they're going to cry and scream and
freak out. And at some point, you just
have to say, "Listen, there's a very
knowable set of rules. We're going to
adhere to those rules. We're going to be
consistent. Loving, but consistent." And
Trump is not being loving. fine, but the
goal should be consistency. But I don't
even think he's being consistent cuz the
last championship winner, whether it's
the Eagles or what, who whatever team
wins, they immediately go to the street,
they immediately light things on fire,
it's a shitty day for law enforcement
that night, everybody wakes up, goes
back to work. So to say that the line is
a car on fire in the middle of a city, I
can bring up the Cincinnati Reds winning
a championship, the Cardinals winning
and red state, blue state, uh, black
people, white people, boys, girls,
whatever like demographic you want to
add into that have excitedly celebrated
something and it looked just as chaotic.
It caused just as much property damage.
So I do I don't want to say that Karen
Bass is the most best mayor. I am
definitely not team California. I miss
Jersey every day. However, to say that
they didn't know how to maintain it made
Trump seem like the super nanny because
he's stepping on their toes. He's
saying, "I'm bringing the Marines there
cuz you guys are letting this go too
far." And Nome, the governor, saying,
"We got it." Karen is saying, "Are you
saying that we should just let them
spaz? The spaz was contained. It was
done. It was over." And then when you
start militarizing people now, I'm
shutting it down. Now you have those
agitators that are going to say, "Okay,
the military is coming. Now I'm
activated." So, it's it's it's the same
thing as um I'm trying to think of a
good analogy. Um I'm trying to stay away
from sports, but when one side decides,
"Okay, I'm going to up the ante a little
bit." The other side is naturally going
to up the ante a little bit. Yeah. And I
was in downtown LA with my 13-year-old
daughter last night on Saturday. I
didn't see a cop drive past. I didn't
feel threatened for my life. I was out
there whistling. I was right by the
convention center cor. So, to act like
LA was just in fire. It looked like
Gotham City and Trump needed to do that.
He didn't necessarily need to do that.
Now, if you want to talk about how to
police protest, how to police wild or
group organizations, that's a different
conversation. We could talk about that.
But to say every time you see a group
get rowdy and light a car on fire, that
the National Guard needs to be called
in. I can give you plenty of
celebrations that had the same exact
result that the National Guard didn't
need to come in, the next morning it was
business as usual. Even though it was a
cleanup, it was still property damage
and things like that. Palmer Lucky was
talking about this and he said, "What we
have here is basically uh a lack of
shared values. Um, we don't have
agreement." This is literally you and I.
We don't have an agreement on what is an
acceptable way to protest, what is an
acceptable way to celebrate, what is an
acceptable way apparently to do a lot of
things. If you light a car on fire, it
is a riot. I don't give a [ __ ] why
you're lighting the car on fire. We now
have a problem. If you were throwing
rocks at a car, again, I don't give a
[ __ ] why you're doing it. we now have a
problem. And so for me, it's like having
lived in LA as long as I've lived here
almost 31 years. I'm telling you, this
[ __ ] is different. Like right before I
came down where the LA riots and that
was like holy Jesus, you I just could
not fathom that you would get something
like that. And then for
almost 30 years, there was nothing. And
then 2020 hit and it was again like
pandemonium and it was so different all
of a sudden. Shops burning, cars
burning, uh people all over in the
streets. I'm buying a gun. It just felt
different, man. And so that's when I was
like, hold on a second. Like you cannot
let people run riot on the streets like
this. It's like if people want to
protest 100% but it there's a big
difference between a peaceful protest
and lighting [ __ ] on fire um threatening
violence being violent like and the uh
the setting bricks on the street and
stuff like that giving people flyers
telling them how to do it well like that
that is something different man. This is
this is manipulation because you know
humans are manipulatable. This is
getting people riled up because you
whatever. Oh my god. Like the the real
language is the behind the scenes puppet
master people whether they think they
have like a great agenda, whether they
think that they're trying to bring a
more loving and caring world. I don't
give a [ __ ] They are manipulating
people. They are trying to get them to
act like this. And I'm saying we are
living in a weird [ __ ] era where
people are leveraging that. the fact
that they can mobilize people. The fact
that we are so divided using social
media to get people into their echo
chambers to push people farther and
farther apart, not being aware of the
fact that we are in a populist moment,
which means everybody's riled up. Every
team wants to see the other team slapped
in the mouth. They want to see people be
punished for the situation that they're
in. And everybody thinks that the other
side is a [ __ ] [ __ ] and they need
to be punished. And so when you step
into something like that and you're uh
Newsome or you're uh Mayor Bass, like
you've got to let people know, hey, this
is what is acceptable and this is what's
not acceptable. And dude, when you've
got people like burning Whimos, pulling
them over, smashing them out, lighting
them on fire, which what the [ __ ] does
Whimo have to do with it? Literally
nothing. Doing donuts around it in the
middle of the street, blocking freeways.
Like I'm not even going to get into the
like waving flags of another country
that we'll get there, but right now I'm
just saying you cannot let people act a
fool like that. And so if like as a an
American citizen, forget the fact that
I'm an Angelino. As an American citizen,
I'm like, what the [ __ ] So if Nuome is
going to lock it down, great. I would
love that. I don't want to have to have
the pissing contest between the
president and the governor. Uh the mayor
is sitting there telling people, "Hey,
if you vandalize or whatever, we are
going to find you. How about you stop
them?" Like this weekend's going to be a
test. Everybody knows it's coming. So
what are they going to do? Like these
things get broadcast on social media.
It's not like there's a big mystery when
and where these things are going to
happen. And yet they're letting things
get unhinged. You've got people. So, so
with with that, right, knowing that it's
coming, knowing that it's on there,
you're you're calling out the burning of
the cars, you're calling out the bricks,
you're calling out the the response. Do
you have a problem with tear gas being
used on people? Do you have a problem
with rubber bullets,
organizing on the street, facing off?
Uh, facing off carries a lot of weight.
So, if they're facing off, like I
legitimately think that it's about to
break into violence. Yeah. Tear gas to
break it up. We'll do the the Trump
quote. You spit, I hit. So when they
face off and somebody spits on the cop,
the cop has a green light to hit him
with the stick. Hit him with the baton.
Yeah, that's aggressive. I'll I'll
admit. Uh am I here for you spit, I hit?
No. Okay. So, if I'm hearing you
correctly, you think that the police
should be monitoring but allowing the
people to organize, move freely, do the
things that they want. Yes. And you've
got to give them some grace. So,
somebody acting a fool and spitting, it
would just be way too easy to cause an
escalation when you have a paid agitator
that comes in and spits on somebody,
that's not going to hurt you. But if
they throw something at you and now it's
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And I think that's the point that I'm
trying to make is that while we were
largely talking about what happened
Friday as the LA riots again, there was
three other protests that happened the
next day, not nearly as much coverage
cuz it's people walking, people waving
flags, people with signs. And when we
see those protests, they're at this
point they're a little bit boring.
They're not fun. We want to see somebody
burn. We want to see somebody fight. We
want to see the media. If it bleeds, it
leads, right? We need to go we need to
lead with that. So, we keep having these
cycle of like, well, look at this is
cars are on fire and ALA is descending
into total chaos.
If you go outside, 97% of Angelinos
didn't even run into the protest. The
other 3% It's interesting, Drew.
Recently, I thought of an analogy that
now really helps me understand the
difference when I'm talking to somebody.
There's two levels of analysis for
society. Mhm. Think of society as a
group of people in a car. There's what's
happening in the car and then there's
pulling outside the car and seeing where
the car is headed. I'm outside the car
and I see the car is about to drive off
a cliff. That's what I believe. You may
also be outside the car, but you don't
see that. You don't think that the car
is about to drive off a cliff. Are we
still talking about that or are we
talking about the immigration rights?
We're talking about immigration. Okay.
So, when I see the what's going on here,
I'm not in the car. I'm up high. I'm
looking at it and I'm like, "Oh, this is
all a part of a bigger moment that
repeats over and over and over and over
and over in history." And it's revolt,
civil war, revolution, or external war.
And they happen at this time in the debt
cycle, which of course is why you were
asking about that. But
just looking at what's happening in the
car, yeah, it doesn't seem like that big
of a deal. We go back to business as
usual. Mhm. Um but take the riots in
whatever 92. Mhm. And next riots are
2020.
Then we go from 2020 to 2025 and we get
the next batch of riots. That's speeding
up a lot. And what I'm saying is America
is being torn apart. And when I pull
outside the car, I'm like, "Oh, this
keeps escalating."
And you sound dumb. Not you, me, but
those who say things like, "Oh, there
might be a civil war coming." They sound
dumb until it kicks off. And I was
thinking today, I was like, I'm going to
call nine out of the next one civil
wars. I get that. M I get that the
prediction will hopefully fail to come
true and that I'm just being overly
paranoid, but never been paranoid
before. I can feel I could document the
beats that have created a feeling of
change in me. This isn't just an
emotional thing. This is like the more I
do deep dives and the deep dives for me
are strictly about creating cause and
effect. the more I feel like Peter Aia,
if you guys don't know him, he was on
the show. He's actually a medical
doctor. That's what he's famous for. Uh
but he was an oncologist who just was so
burnt out. I was like, I can't do this
anymore. You just see watch people die
all the time. He's like, I can't keep
doing this. And so for a while, he went
in and worked in um
mathematics and actuarial science. and
he was at a bank and they were looking
at subprime mortgages and he runs all
the facts and he goes um
America's going to go bankrupt that the
economy is going to implode. It is a
mathematical certainty. And this was
like in 2006.
And so his job was to tell the banks,
okay, you've been doing this thing for
the last whatever 10 years. Mhm. There's
no way out. You are going to die
and now it's just about watching it play
out.
Same thing when you take he obviously
ended up being right. By the way, this
is the 2008 collapse. Mhm. And he was
like, it was so surreal to just see the
numbers and be like, "Oh, there's there
is no way out." Yeah. So, I'll give
people a stat. Uh
12 out of the last 16 times
that a
declining power met a rising power. 12
out of those 16 times it ends in war.
Only four times was war averted. So, we
are three times more likely that this
ends in bloodshed than we are that oh,
this ends up being nothing and Tom was
an alarmist and we had nothing to worry
about. Okay, those are terrible odds. If
you were in Vegas, you bet on that all
day long because you 3X, baby. Mhm. So,
that's
where we're at. That's this moment. And
so I'm like, yes, if you want to have
any shot of being the fifth time that we
avoid the war instead of the 13th time
that we go to war, uh you absolutely
must start
being disciplined now, reigning some of
this back in, pulling people back to the
middle,
figuring out who's doing the agitating
and why. have open conversations about
where we want to go as a country instead
of surreptitious
um DA level [ __ ] like I think what
you're about to see is Elon running the
Soros playbook and
that that will be horrifying as in
establishing a new party controlling it
Soros was uh go to the local election
level they're really cheap win them over
get district attorneys that match your
politics and just do it really quietly
across the entire country. Uh and then I
mean Soros supposedly, I haven't looked
deeply enough, is doing this all over
the world. And so you just very slowly
terraform ideologically the world. And
it's like the classic case of you're
planting a tree under uh whose shade you
will never get to sit, but you just go
this I'm making the world over in the
image that I want. And if it ends up
being a bunch of um
extraordinarily wealthy people doing
social engineering,
um I couldn't hate that more because
that is a bunch of people that are
utterly convinced that they're right.
And I hate that Soros has been doing it
for God knows how long and I will hate
it if Elon starts it. even if he's
trying to do it to combat it, it's just
man, that is not I I feel a bit
polyianish saying this because I'm
talking about the world the way that I
wish it were, not the way that it
actually is. But I really
I don't want that. I don't want to live
in that system where it's just like all
happening in back rooms, local elections
from guys with huge piles of cash. I I
hear that. That that's a good point. I
want to take a step back though with
your framing of the question. Um I was
thinking of analogy like if you see
something in a metal can with a label
and the substance inside is floating in
a liquid. Most people like oh it's a can
of soup or something. Okay. But it also
could be like baked beans or it can also
be like sauerkraut. So there's other
objects that are wrapped in cans with
items floating in like a liquid. So,
with that being as a framing, going back
to this specific moment, what I'm
hearing from my friends on the left, uh,
I have a communist friend. I love her to
death. I don't agree with eight of the
10 things out of her mouth. But one
thing that she is very accurate in this
specific moment is there is a resistance
to the immigration policies that are
happening right now because people are
seeing the villainization of immigrants
similar to the villainization of other
marginalized groups. So the same people
who said, "Oh, if the Hitler was here, I
would be hiding in Frank." No, you'll
probably be yelling at the Jews for
illegally protesting against it, you
will be trying to say they need to go
home and listen to the cops and things
like that. And people see this in that
moment. So how would you frame it for
those people that are coming from it?
And wholeheartedly, I'm not We'll put
the paid actors to the side. You know,
I'm a moderate according to Ray Dalio.
My head's going to roll first. Like a
moderates and the elites, they die in
the revolution first. So I'm I'm out of
here. Um, but just understanding that a
lot of people really think we're
fighting fascism part two. I need to be
this resistant because this is what the
people in 1940 didn't do and that's how
Adolf Hitler won versus this is just a
law and order thing and you guys are are
fighting for the wrong side. I think
there's a different narrative across
those two sides. What do you say to that
Frammy? Uh my thing is in business you
always ask if you're attempting to do
something always ask has this ever been
done well before and if it is and you go
back and you look at that thing and you
say okay cool like what happened here
and
to your specific friend about communism
I will say it's never been done well and
when you find yourself having to make
excuses or say things like the most
recent one I heard uh the first four
years of Soviet um Russia was amazing
and then it just became a bureaucratic
mess. It's like, bro, at some point
you've got to recognize that those ideas
do not line up with the way that humans
actually are. Um so
this is why I find myself and I'm I'm
going to have to decide what I'm going
to do about this. Am I going to force
myself to take a optimistic view or am I
going to um just journalistically
list all of the um beats that I see us
going down that have cause and effect
tied to them. This is Ray Dallio's
approach. So Ray Dallio is very gentle
with the words that he uses because he's
really just following cause and effect.
And so he doesn't want to be alarmist
and I appreciate that about him. Um, but
it really does seem like there's an
inevitability to what's going on right
now. So, I can give you a
prognostication of exactly what has to
be done. I just don't think I believe
that people will do it until they suffer
tremendously. Uh, and so people have
some really delusional sense of what a
revolution looks like and uh they're
horrible. Like even in France when heads
were rolling and there was like a
euphoria. Um after a couple years you
don't even want to see anymore. You
don't want to see another person
beheaded like yeah like you got it. Yes.
Okay. I guess we got what we wanted. And
so it just becomes
the revolution is like an on switch and
it's really hard to turn off. Mhm. So
Napoleon had to reorient people to the
Napoleonic wars. That was like once the
blood lust gets going like you got to
point it at something and it was just
eating France alive from the inside. And
so you needed remember he ends up
crowning himself [ __ ] emperor. So you
get that kind of energy to wrangle
people once they click over into that
like anim animalistic place. Mhm. Um,
so wanting to see people avoid that kind
of blood lust, I'm like, okay, let's lay
out what is the cause and effect here.
Where do we think this goes? Uh, the
debt is a huge part of this. And
unfortunately, I repeat myself because
whenever you're talking at the level of
physics, there's only so many things
that are true. Debt and money printing
are driving all of your problems.
Everything is born out of that.
That's not the level at which people
experience it. They experience it at the
level of um these groups are being
marginalized and uh immigration policies
are just another way to be cruel to a
marginalized group. Okay. Uh that isn't
true. So let's backtrack. What is
happening? What's happening is you're
likely part of the tribe that is um what
we in political language would call
left-leaning. So you are designed to be
compassionate. Like that's the dominant
lens through which you view the world.
And so when people feed that and they
say that's a just world, the way that
you think about it is just. The way that
these greedy pigs think about it, that's
unjust and they need to be stopped and
they're the new Nazis and this is your
chance to show that you really would
hide Anne Frank in your attic. That you
really would stand up to Trump who is
the next Hitler. The problem is they're
miscatategorizing what's happening. So
what they don't understand is this isn't
the 1940s. This is the 1930s. This is um
why Germany on the edge of
hyperinflation. Populism is rising and
out of this moment will be born the next
Hitler. And what we should all want to
avoid is
deficit spending into oblivion because
as we do that then we're going to find
ourselves in a very bad situation where
you're going to need a draconian person
to come in and say this is exactly what
we're going to do and how we're going to
do it. We're going to confiscate wealth.
I mean this is exactly Hitler's
playbook. I'm going to get us back on
track economically. We're going to steal
everything from the Jews. That's going
to help the economy. We're going to
invade these other nations and we're
going to take all their resources.
That's going to help with the economy.
We're going to ignore the Treaty of
Versailles. We're going to stop paying
those debts. We're also going to ignore
the Treaty of Versailles and start
building our military. It's like that's
the response when the economic breaks to
the point where people are now suffering
so much they're like, I just need
somebody to fix this. Chiming in right
there. You don't see any parallels over
like that list over what we're seeing
now in that moment where you're talking
about the authoritarian bent of Trump.
Yeah. Yeah. So, everything that Trump
does that's authoritarian is [ __ ]
dangerous, horrific, and every time he's
taking a step down that path, like
that's dangerous. People need to scream.
The question is where is actually that
line? And what I'm saying is that line
isn't there's a law and we're going to
uphold it. That's why I'm saying they're
miscatategorizing what's happening with
uh immigrants. So, for instance, I think
it would be extremely wise of Trump to
uh find a path like if you've been here
five or 10 years, man, you don't have a
criminal record. You're paying taxes,
which is crazy. As an illegal immigrant,
you can actually get an ability to pay
taxes. It's crazy. I didn't know that.
Uh
that's weird. But anyway, uh they're
they're here. They're paying their
taxes. Like, find them a path. There's
humanity in that. Too many people know
beautiful human beings. They came here
illegally, but they're good people. And
by the way, you are in the moment that
you're in. People are extremely
suspicious of you. So, do conspicuous
acts of kindness. Pull uh a killer
immigrant story into the surface uh into
the spotlight. People that you want to
help and you want to see. This is the
kind of person we want to see thrive. uh
they're here, they're raising a family,
they're paying taxes, like they've got
American values. Doesn't matter where
they're from, but they've got American
values. Like, [ __ ] yeah. Like, those are
the kinds of people. That would be a
huge win for he's constitutionally
incapable. He is not going to do it. But
understanding that saying, uh here are
the laws. We are going to abide by them.
And just because you push back does not
mean I'm going to back off. like we and
also have some empathy for the other
side. And I'll even take this one. Uh
values matter. Mhm. And America will get
torn apart if we don't plant a flag and
say these are the values that we stand
for. And anybody that's pushing back
against that, um we've got beef. So
seeing a bunch of people in the streets
waving Mexican flags is crazy. That's
crazy. If I was in Mexico lighting
things on fire and waving an American
flag, I would expect them to have a real
[ __ ] problem. In fact, if what I have
found in my research can be believed, it
is actually illegal in Mexico, if you
are a non-citizen for you to protest,
even peacefully publicly, not allowed to
do it. So, that makes sense. And I think
when we think about somebody else, we
go, "Yeah, that makes sense." But we
don't do that here. So, I'm just saying,
listen, peaceful protesting all day. I
highly encourage Trump [ __ ] bury
those weird authoritarian impulses you
have, bro. They are going to take you
down a dark [ __ ] path. They're going
to push people farther away from you.
You will rapidly become, if you're not
already, a president for half the
country who literally does not give a
[ __ ] about the other half. That is
[ __ ] suicide. Don't do it.
find the humanity in this situation. Map
out very publicly what we want to see
from what I call foreignb born
Americans. I love that America has
people from all over the world. We
should want the best and the brightest
and the most loving and the most tax
abiding and all of that tasty [ __ ] But
where we have to get to is agreement on
if we've got laws and they're being
violated, especially if the president
said, "This is what I'm going to do and
that's how he was elected and now he's
coming in and doing that thing and
people aren't standing up." And if this
had been peaceful and then Trump had
brought Marines in, that would be crazy.
But
there was a lot of [ __ ] burning. And
anybody that tries to make out like
these were peaceful protests, LA's
gigantic. Of course, this is only going
to happen in like small areas. But in
those small areas,
stop. Arrest the people that are doing
it. Simple as
once people see, oh, the laws are going
to be enforced. Then they're going to
chill the [ __ ] out. You have to be deaf.
You cannot overplay your hand. You don't
want to go into areas where nothing is
popping off. You don't want to institute
curfews like this. obviously can spill
into police state real fast and then
that would be disgusting on Trump and he
becomes instantly the problem. Um but
right now in California people have been
able to get away with the most
outlandish [ __ ] Um arrests have been
made so pe people have been cracked
down. Um I got this stat from um I think
his name is Kaizen the black dude that
Elon keeps retweeting. Um Elon's black
friend. Uh he said that this all started
over 118 um migrants that they were
going after um illegals that they were
going after in California. It cost 134
million to deploy the National Guard all
in taxes, fees included. Um
it cost 17K to deport one person. So
somebody who is trying to pass a bill
that's going to raise a deficit spending
nine figures to crack down on a 100
people. Now, mind you, if it was the
hundred people trying to start the
Sharia law city in Texas, maybe it's a
different story. I might be able to lean
to the right, close my eyes, and be
like, "Okay, I get that." But do you
think that there is a economic reason
that maybe we can be spending our time
in other places versus immigration? Um,
I mean, there is certainly a case to be
made to spend your money in other
places, but what I will say are what are
the big threats that you've got? And for
four years, you had an open border. So
you have, no one agrees on the numbers,
but millions and millions and millions
and millions of people that have come in
illegally uh that some certainly are not
assimilating. Some certainly are violent
criminals. Uh and so part of this is you
have to draw a line in the sand and say
these are going to be enforced now.
They're going to be enforced in this
way. Uh, and I was just talking to
somebody. I won't rat them out, but I
was just talking to somebody who um had
originally come here legally and they
got their papers,
lovely person, and very happy that
they've managed to become a citizen now.
It's awesome. And this person has a
sibling that's here, and they are um
piecing out. They're like, lot of
uncertainty, gotta go. And so,
yes, this is like if you just look at
the numbers of all the people that you
actually deport,
uh, you're probably not going to be able
to make the math work, but showing that
this is a place of discipline that does
work. And there's a hilarious Yeah.
uh skit from South Park where they're
like, "You want to know how to we deal
with uh ADD in my classroom?" And the
kids are all freaking out and he slaps
the [ __ ] out of the first one and the
kid like, "Whoa, whoa, what?" And he
starts crying. Goes to the second one,
he's still freaking out. Slaps the [ __ ]
out of him. He like, "Oh, I got what?"
He gets calm and then the third one just
calms down on his own. And it's like,
yeah, you obviously a joke, but if you
start enforcing
the rules, people will adhere to the
rules. If you don't enforce the rules,
then you won't. And the interesting
thing is to me this is really a question
about do we believe in personal property
or not? And
that I think is a big thing at the heart
of the cultural debate right now is is
because of the damage we're going that
way. That's part of it. But no, it comes
down to if you believe in personal
property, then a whole bunch of things
echo out from that. So, um if you
believe in personal property, then uh if
you come into my house, you can expect a
violent response. California either
already has made that illegal or has
presented a bill to make that illegal.
Meaning if you break into my house, I
have to flee.
What? That's [ __ ] crazy. Uh versus to
stay in your ground in Florida and Texas
where I have a right to defend. This is
my house. You got to be [ __ ] kidding.
If you come in with intent to harm me
and I can't defend myself, that's
somebody who doesn't believe in personal
property cuz my body is my ultimate
property. Mhm. Uh my house is my
property. But a nation, a state
property. And so if you're not allowed
to defend the borders of your country,
that's somebody who doesn't believe in
personal property. You don't believe
that people can own a country. We'll get
back to the show in a moment, but first
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This is a paid advertisement. And now
back to the show. Drew, one thing we
have to look at is Michael
Shelonburgger. He really explains very
well. Uh my sort of rough take but
eloquently explained on what's going on
with the riots. The fact of the matter
is that the people who run California
don't see the riots as a crisis. They
see them as a cleansing. They believe
civilization itself in the form of its
laws, its borders, and its police is
corrupt at the root. In that worldview,
civilization is not progress. It's
crime. It's what made the conquest of
indigenous people possible. It's what
permitted slavery. It's what created
capitalism, fossil fuels, families with
two parents, and fixed addresses. To
them, the entire American project is a
centuriesl long atrocity masquerading as
democracy. In their view, public order
is not something to protect, it's
something to dismantle. The violence we
see in the streets is not a failure of
their leadership. It's the fulfillment
of their ideology. They believe the very
existence of American law enforcement is
an expression of white supremacy. The
burden of all this doesn't fall on the
celebrities or the influencers or the
politicians who created it. Falls on the
working people and the poor. On the
elderly, on the immigrants who follow
the law, on the single mothers trying to
keep their kids safe, on the nurses and
teachers and cashiers and delivery
drivers who can't afford to leave. It
falls on the people who believed that if
they worked hard and obeyed the rules,
the state would protect them. Instead,
the state has turned its back on them.
And all the while, we're told that the
law is the enemy. The truth is, the law
is what makes life liveable. It's what
allows strangers to live alongside one
another. It's what allows parents to
send their kids to school, to open a
store, to walk home at night. If you're
not already a subscriber to Public,
please subscribe now to support our
award-winning investigative journalism,
our defense of free speech, and to watch
the rest of this video and read the rest
of the article. That really does a
phenomenal job of summing up what I am
trying to get across, but did not say
nearly as eloquently.
it. I feel like it was a bingo board of
like 2020 terms and he was just like
knocking them off because
it's easy to say this is the problem
with California and you group up the
last 30 years and place it at this
moment in this day. Uh but as he was
making that list at the end like it's
illegal. You could get cited for
watering your lawn but it's not illegal
to have a meth lab next to a school.
Like it it still is legal. There is
still some type of law and order and I
just don't want us to go off the rails
with what happened this weekend as
California's in total chaos. Put the
whole thing in rice. But put the whole
thing in rice. Uh so when you look at
California, everything is fine. I think
that's a jump. I didn't say that. So
give me um so talk directionality for a
second. Uh maybe you disagree with a few
things with him, but directionally you
get where he's coming from. or like this
guy is so far out over his skis like
this is nonsensical he's blowing it out
of proportion. Copy directionally. I get
what he's saying in the sense that
California has allowed people's feelings
to dictate policy and that isn't always
the best way to set policy for the
masses.
However, to say that
Californians think the problem with this
weekend is white supremacy and that's
why we went to Right. Like that was just
a buzz word that he's know was going to
it's kind of like that's going to
invigorate a certain type of person to
then fight back and say, "Yeah, that's
what's Roman California where I don't
think so." So, this goes back to what I
was saying with the um there is
there is almost certainly Marxist
ideology underneath all of this trying
to tear down the capitalist structure.
uh this is the collision of values that
I'm saying that we're going to have to
wade our way through the the when he
says white supremacy I have a feeling he
feels the way I feel when I talk about
the debt where I'm like I whenever I'm
not saying debt I'm just arguing at a
different level of analysis because it's
all an echo of the debt it's all an echo
of the debt it's it's debt and money
printing that's all that matters
everything else is a behavioral change
that's downstream of that uh and so I
putting words in his mouth But I have a
feeling that what he's saying is when
you start putting people into group
identities, it creates a frame of
reference through which all you see is
oppressed and oppressor. And the goto
one here in America obviously is
oppression from white privilege, I'm
guessing. Um, but that makes a lot of
sense to me because I think that people
are still lost as a framework in victim
victimizer. That's why you can have
queers for Palestine, which is absurd.
They they will literally kill you. And
they have uh had people like tell them
to their face, we don't want your kind.
Like at a march and stuff, they'll go
right up to them. And uh but at the same
time, they can't make that make sense
because in their worldview, well, hold
on a second. like you're being oppressed
and therefore we're on the same team
because I'm being oppressed and so
there's this sense of when that's your
entire world view everything is going to
be filtered through that lens even if
the term starts becoming pass the idea
of but we're this is this is a power
struggle this is um the class struggle
by another name and like when you start
reading the history of why Marxist moved
away from the class struggles because it
didn't end up working. They thought
there was going to be this huge uprising
of the classes. No. And so finally they
were like, "Huh, the class thing doesn't
work, which is crazy. So what do we do?"
And they found identity politics. And
[ __ ] hell, it's worked so far. It
hasn't gone all the way, so it may too
peter out. We'll see. Fingers crossed.
Um, but I I he Shelonburgger I'm
admittedly not deep deep familiar with,
but I've seen enough of his stuff that
I wouldn't want to end up in a debate
with him on the opposite side. Like he's
really thought about this. Whether
you're right or not is different. He's
just thought about this so much. He's
got a pretty airtight cause and effect.
People are not always right about that,
but
he certainly has it. And then Victor
Davis Hansen had another alternative
take about Nuome as well talking about
how he pretty much torched his um
opportunity to be president. But here's
what's interesting. The mayor Karen Bass
came down in her public comments on the
side of the protesters who were
protesting the idea of deportation at
all. Kind of like Kamala Harris used to
march against deportation.
And Gavin Newsome then gave a series of
editorializations
that I think have ruined his chances
ever to be a serious national candidate.
He said this was chaotic. This was
reckless. And he said that they were
just trying to have an arbitrary uh
deportation quota. Gavin Gavin 12
million people came into the country
illegally. That was 3 million a year.
That was 250,000 per month. that was
over 8,000 a day. They have not been
able to deport more than a thousand on
most days, sometimes 500. They would
have to deport 8,000 people every single
day for four years to get back where we
were with 20 million illegal aliens when
Joe Biden entered office. So, it's not a
quota, it's an effort to stop an
invasion. And it's a very funny invasion
because now Gavin is mad that they
nationalized the California Guard. Trump
has that ability. And people said, "No,
no, President, they have to request it."
No, they don't. You think that JFK said
to George Wallace when he nationalized
the Alabama National Guard said, "Would
you please let us nationalize your guard
so you can be removed from stopping
African-American people going to the
University of Alabama?" No. Very, very
well said. The the reality is that
protecting your borders is absolutely
critical to maintaining the integrity of
the value structure of your country and
without that you pull apart from the
inside. We are in the m the middle of a
battle for ideas. In the 80s it was like
this really overt battle for which was
better economically, the Soviet system
or the capitalist system. Capitalism
won. Great. Now we're in a different
battle for ideology around
um
equality of outcome, personal property,
like really foundational. I feel like
it's still socialism versus capitalism.
It will play out like that. But that's
not the battleground. The battleground
is ideological. The battleground is
algorithmic. The battleground is about
what ideas make up your worldview. it
will manifest ultimately in that kind of
system for sure. But before we just
talked about the surface system, we
didn't talk about like the underlying
um values that were driving it. We
certainly didn't they certainly weren't
because I was too young for to be a part
of this, but it certainly wasn't
propagated in the way that it is now.
uh now is what they call the slow march
long march through the institutions
where it's one by one you take over
education administration the government
etc etc and so then it's just like
people are just born into this
ideological soup that is slowly
undermining that breaking everybody
instead of into class breaking people
into races into group identity um
prioritizing victimization looking at
the world through the lens of that Um,
like we are actually, this this is so
crazy to me, but we are actually living
in a time where people are like, "Uh,
but America's on stolen land." What?
I'm sorry. Like, that is uh that is so
ignorant of human history that I don't
know what to do with that. What do you
mean by that? That's so ignorant of
human history. So, would you please
point to the land that wasn't taken over
by somebody? So everybody's on stolen
land. So nobody's on stolen land.
Correct. Okay. Everything everywhere
has been taken, lost, fought for, taken
back, lost again. Like it it it is a
neverending sequence of my tribe, kill
your tribe. people went to war for women
for a long time where it was like in
fact there was a a modern conversation
with uh I don't know if they were in the
Amazon or in Africa but it was like a
tribe that had resisted modernization
and they were talking to them and he
said something like um well why do you
guys go to war and he was like for women
why else would you go to war
and when that clicks for people that
like the ultimate thing to get in a war
historically was either land or women.
Yo, like that is rough trade. So that's
history. History is um history is a
freak show. It is it is an unbearable
litany of death and destruction. And at
this point, we've gotten to something
approaching stability, and people are
hearkening back to a past that never
existed. The whole idea of like there
were noble savages that had this land
before whoever and just isn't true in
terms of they weren't peaceful anywhere.
Okay. So, it seems like since we were
the last perpetrators, we're treated as
if we're the only perpetrators. And
that's where you're saying is a
ignorance of history. Correct. Copy. Um
Ray Dallio in his uh article on X about
civil war, he talks about what led up to
this moment and how in his book uh
principles, chapter 5 and chapter 6
talks about pre-ivil war. Chapter six
talks about civil war and kind of the
bridge between those two. One of the
things that jumped out to me about that
was the classic toxic mix. And he said
the classic toxic mix of forces that
brings about big internal conflicts
consists of one the country and the
people in the country or state or city
being in bad financial shape eg having
big debt and non-debt obligations two
large income wealth and value gaps
within that entity and three a severe
negative economic shock. So to me
although we are talking about this in
the frame of immigration we have a
country that has large massive debt. We
have number three uh severe negative
economic shock where everybody's still
recovering from COVID. But number two
specifically, the large income, wealth,
and value gap I think is what's being
discussed right now live in front of
everybody where there's a value gap
between of there's people who don't even
use the term illegal because they don't
think a human being can be an illegal
alien. Um that's a personal property
value. That's what I'm trying to get at.
They're going to say those words, nobody
can be illegal. But what they mean is
there should be no borders. Once you say
that, then it's like, well, then I
should be able to come into your house.
What's the problem? So it's like you
want to ask them where do you draw the
line? Your house, your bedroom, town,
city, state, nation, where? And if you
draw it just at the house, who gets to
protect your house or who should protect
your house? Now we have police. What
about fire? And so very quickly you
realize, oh [ __ ] to protect property I
have to be back in a nation. I mean that
that's what all of this sprang from. In
my most recent deep dive, one of the
facts that I came across was how
gunpowder gave us the nation state. It
allowed money to become like way more
important because no longer could a king
with a bunch of knights hold me down cuz
I had a gun. I [ __ ] shoot your
knight. And so now all of a sudden it
was like, oh [ __ ] they've got to build
armies. And so once they start building
armies, then it's like, okay, I'm going
to fold you under my protection because
I've got this big army and you start
getting into these uh wealth driven
because they've got to pay for these
very expensive wars, these wealthdriven
nation states, which is basically what
we live inside of today. Now, they're
way better than the alternatives that we
had for God knows how long, where most
people were essentially enslaved. Um,
but it these things come about for
reasons and unless you're willing to um
backtrack. I mean, the reality is like I
just come back to this one all the time.
If somebody's going to be weak as [ __ ]
somebody else is going to come along and
take your [ __ ] It's just that simple.
If you don't protect your house, people
going to come take your [ __ ] Simple
ass.
Okay. Uh, if so, fact though on that, do
you disagree with that? No. I I just
think that's a very animalistic
principle of the bigger the stronger
wins, the biggest and the baddest they
win. Do you think that uh Zalinski would
agree that I better be able to protect
myself? That Zalinski would agree that I
better be able to protect myself? Yes.
Okay. Do you think uh the Palestinians
would agree I better be able to protect
myself? Uh yes. Do you think the
Israelis would agree? I better be able
to protect myself. Yes. And on and on
and on it goes. So, so you think so
America should be able to say, I'm
protecting myself. America has a moral
obligation to its citizens to protect
itself. Now, I guarantee you and I will
draw different lines around what that
should look like. And certainly I and
many other people out in the world are
going to uh draw different lines. But I
believe one of the lines that you have
to draw is the border around your
country. And you have to be realistic
that values make a difference, a wild
difference. I'll paraphrase a quote from
uh Thomas Soul, the [ __ ] genius
economist, uh who said, "No thing
has ever been claimed without any
evidence to back it up more viciferously
than the fact that diversity is our
greatest strength." Nothing has ever
been claimed that has yet to back it up.
Yeah. There's no backing to to prove
that diversity is actually beneficial.
Why? Because it's not. You have to
overcome the problems of diversity. Now,
I think that you actually do get
something which is you want different
perspectives to see a problem from
different angles. But it's like a
republic if you can keep it because the
problem is people tear themselves apart.
the the lack of shared values rips at
people and when they don't have shared
values then whatever good may come of it
you first have to get on the other side
of that lack of shared values and so
yeah some diversity is good but too much
diversity is a problem and this is why
even within a company one of one of the
most important things that I look for is
cultural fit like can I like Drew it's
entirely possible that inside you're
seething and you cannot wait to get away
from me. That is possible. I admit I may
be blindsided by that one day. Uh but I
feel like you and I can disagree about
something and there's still mutual
respect because underlying it somewhere
there's enough shared values. They'll
never map perfectly, but there's enough
shared values that we're like, "Yeah, I
get it. Like he doesn't agree, may even
think I'm crazy. Um but he's giving me
the space to say my thing. Whatever.
Whatever." And when you have that, yay.
Good. You have been extraordinarily good
for this channel. I've said that a
thousand times publicly and privately.
And so I am extremely glad that you
think slightly different than me. But
I'm also glad that um
you're not anti- capitalism or uh
thinking that I'm evil. Like that would
not be fun.
There there's something to the response
of it all though. Um
because the reason I I bring up the
civil war thing, um Ray Dalio's words,
is because I think at the root of it,
we're back at the halves and the have
nots. We're back at income and like
income disparity. And I think once that
income disparity, then you start adding
adding these layers of culture. That's
where we're kind of going through this
disconnect. That's why we're having all
these problems. Yes. So six degrees of
federal banking, central banking. Mhm.
But in this moment, how would you
recommend
we help fix that income disparity?
Because I understand not to deficit
spend. I understand the dangers of the
Fed, but with the bill that Trump has
out and the Senate and the backers and
the money that's in their pockets, I
don't see us not deficit spending. So,
is it one of those situations that this
is just going to be the first domino of
a bunch of other as income keeps
widening in? This is the 362nd domino of
God I hope 500 but I fear 363.
So uh uh I it
is obvious to me that the nature of our
economic and political system is such
that Trump was always going to print.
My belief is that he would print less
than we would have gotten with Kamla.
And I'm happy to make the case for you
or anybody else. Uh because it's clear
that Trump has authoritarian tendencies,
but I have a similar allergic response
to
Kla Harris. I'll keep it specific about
her because I would be very open to a
Democrat candidate, but her economic
illiteracy, the fact that they hid Joe
Biden for I probably would have said two
years, but it might have been a lot
longer than that. Um I and all the
censorship and the control of AI, all
that. They I know some people are going
to think I'm out of my mind for this,
but from an authoritarian standpoint,
Donald Trump does not scare me nearly as
much as Kamla and the Democratic party
that ran in 2024.
Now, maybe next election that won't be
true. I am not on a [ __ ] team. I am
not a Republican. I am not a Democrat.
I'm going to vote for the person who I
think best understands cause and effect
and will take us to where we're trying
to get to. Um,
so yeah, but in this revolutionary
times, y the elites and the moderates
die first. Yeah. Um, in populist
moments, things like that. So, how how
are you navigating the moderatess? I'm
going to use that the the moderatess.
Um, because I feel like on immigration,
you're a bit uh right leaning. Um, so on
immigration, I'm right. Yeah. Yeah, for
sure. I wouldn't call you moderate on
that issue. Um, that's interesting. I
feel like
what would what would far right look
like? Uh far right would be uh [ __ ]
them. If they're here illegally, get
them the [ __ ] out. Whereas I'm saying,
hey, there's probably a window, call it
five to 10 years, where if they're like
never been arrested, paying their taxes,
like, yeah, like help them find a path
to citizenship.
Some test of some kind to see if they're
assimilating. Maybe the test that they
already do for citizenship is enough.
Um, but something like that that feels
pretty moderate to me. I'm not like
banging a drum. Lock them up. Get these
[ __ ] guys out. Send everybody to
Libya. Like, that's insane to me. Um, we
need to figure out what due process is.
Everybody should have due process. Is it
a full jury trial? No, that doesn't seem
sensible to me. Anyway, I won't spend a
lot of time defending myself there, but
I do feel like I get why you say that,
but I think that there are positions way
further right than me. Uh, agreed. Yeah,
you're not Breitbart, so I don't want to
say that. But at the same time there, I
just think that there's levels to how
things can get handled. And I think that
Trump is doing this to maximize
political wins versus actually every
politician is 100%. He is a politician.
He lies. He spins. He is constantly
trying to manipulate and position. If I
ever see a politician that's not, I'll
let you know. Ran Paul, uh, I align with
him economically. So, my emotional pull
is to think that maybe he doesn't, but
he probably does and I probably just
haven't looked closely. Um, it it is the
nature of the political game to make you
do that.
It, as far as I can tell from the
outside, you have to do that to get
elected. There's just some people that
are worse at it, better, I don't know
how to look at it, but uh there are some
people that do it more aggressively than
others. With the national organized
protests happening this Saturday, do you
think that things are going to escalate
more? Um, I would like to believe not. I
would like to believe that it's going to
be chill. Things are never as bad as I
fear they're going to be. They're never
as good as I hope they're going to be.
Um, so hopefully it's uh pretty chill.
We've got the National Guard or whatever
on standby. Everybody's ready. They
actually enforce the laws. Like that
would be wonderful. Um, so no, I'm not
living in fear, but I will say that I
continue to ask myself one question.
If it all kicked off, if I really
believe that civil war is inevitable,
am I in the right place? Like America,
California. Definitely California. Drew,
I will be heartbroken if I ever come to
the conclusion that America is not the
place. You just got to go to uh Puerto
Rico. Like Peter Schiff, man, you'll be
fine. No, that strikes me as a bad idea.
If you want to know what I'm really
thinking, and I can't believe this is
true, uh, Singapore, Singapore, UAE,
like Abu Dhabi, dude, the vibe in the
UAE is um
90s America. We could take uh it on the
road. Let's do it. Um, you're joking.
I'm not. Hey, so I got a passport. Let's
go. Um, Trump called the National Guard
and the Marines like sidest stepping
Gavin Newsome. This is the first time a
president directly called for the
National Guard to help since the civil
rights movement and for those that
needed a flashback of what was going on
at that point. Um, they were trying to
get into school. The cops were beating
them. The National Guard was coming in
to kind of curtail the local um, law
enforcement.
Do you think that do you have an issue
with Trump kind of using that executive
powers? LA has 80,000 cops. They didn't
even use 50% of that this weekend. Dude,
whenever I look at stats on California,
I feel like it's being woefully
mismanaged. So, this is admittedly a
little bit of the um
annoyed husband who's just like, I've
[ __ ] had enough. Uh so, yeah, I've
had enough. And I have zero faith that
Newsome or Bass are going to do
anything. They they had so much time to
prepare for the California fires and did
not. They just let it [ __ ] burn. Uh
and they have obviously had time to
prepare a response learning from what
happened in 2020.
uh and have not like they have a amount
of leniency that I think is for riots
that I think is wildly inappropriate and
their argumentation about well if you
didn't try to stop them from rioting you
would have been fine was like what the
[ __ ] are you talking about this is like
look I don't have kids but when I see
people with kids that just run riot and
they take their iPad and the kid is
shrieking and crying I'm like okay first
of all you let your kid get addicted to
the iPad That was dumb. Second, you are
where you are now. You can't take it
away and then hand it right back cuz
they start screaming. You've got to be
like, what is actually best for the
citizens of this state? And
safety would be number one. Now, again,
you can spill over into a police state
and that will be just as bad, rapidly
heading towards something worse. So, I'm
not saying be draconian or ham-handed.
I'm saying you've got to have the
deafness to go, we're not going to let
you people do this, but if you spit on
an officer, arrest them. I'm sure it's
assault or whatever because you don't
want to make it so that everybody's
[ __ ] spitting on you. Um, but no, you
should not hit them with a baton. All
right. Uh, Cash Mattel was out here
lying again on Joe Rogan. Dude, this was
crazy. Did you watch this? I didn't
watch the whole episode, though. Here's
the thing. Uh, we should probably play
this particular clip, but let me just
set up the whole interview really fast.
Um, okay. I know nothing about who Cash
is before he uh became the director of
the FBI. So, supposedly he's got
backstory and he's like been a
gunslinger, like really fought to
uncover like corruption and all this
stuff and paid a personal price and I
didn't know any of that. Uh, but man,
every time I hear this guy talk about
the Epson Files, I'm just like there,
he's not being honest. I don't know
that. These are just my feelings. I want
to be very clear. Uh, I have no evidence
whatsoever, but man, there's something
so weird about the way that he talks
about this stuff that like I'm gonna get
you the files right on day one. And it's
like, nope, hard pass. And so what we're
watching the episode with Joe Rogan, I
was like, he did not convince me at all.
I was like, what is happening? Mhm. Uh
and so after the interview, people were
saying, "Wait a second." Uh he made
claims, which you're going to hear, uh
he made claims that there are no tapes
of Epstein um doing anything. And then
Pam Bondi has said the exact opposite. I
actually have a very different take on
this, even though I still get the
heebie-jebies every time he talks about
this. Um but I'll say that after we show
the clip. Again, logical playout. If
there was a video of some guy or gal
committing felonies on an island and I'm
in charge, don't you think you'd see it?
Tens of thousands of videos of Epstein
with children or child porn and there
are hundreds of victims and no one
victim will ever get released. It's just
the volume and that's what they're going
through right now. The FBI is diligently
going What? What did Dan say? He killed
himself. Trust me, he kills himself. Oh
god, looking like he's in pain every
time he talks about it. Okay, I I don't
know, man. I don't know what any of this
is. So, just from a pure speculation
standpoint. One, if you go and watch the
full video, he
it's I'm going to be very generous. The
words he say go something like this. Um,
there's footage of Epstein. It's not the
footage that you want to see. what
people are expecting to see. Doesn't say
what he thinks they're expecting to see,
but let's read into that and say there
there are no other people. The only
person you're going to see on tape is
Epstein. None of these words are said,
but Pam Bondi says there's tens of
thousands of tapes with Ebstein and uh
does she say underage girls or child
porn, whatever. But she only says that
it's Epstein. So, it's possible what
Cash was saying is what you guys want is
footage of Donald Trump, Bill Gates, uh
Reed Hoffman, etc., etc., etc., sleeping
with underage girls. It just doesn't
exist. Uh Bill Clinton, like all the
[ __ ] names that people have been
expecting. So, that that thing you want,
that's not there. And because Epstein
is, he did not say these words. This is
my very generous interpretation. because
Epstein is already dead. To release
these tapes would just be to victimize
the women because there's no one left to
get. It's just Epstein over and over and
over and over and over. And so, yeah,
you're you're not going to be satisfied.
I believe Epstein already killed
himself. Uh he's the only one on any of
these tapes and so to release them won't
satisfy the public and it's going to
victimize these women. So, that would be
the way, even though it really does in
this clip sound like uh they're saying
the exact opposite things. I have a
feeling that's what he was trying to
articulate. But dude, oh man, do I have
I have a um what do they call it? Idea
virus. Anyway, I have an idea that is
lodged in my head that I cannot shake
that old mind virus. A mind v a mind
virus. Yes. that that that
this is like some eyes wide shut [ __ ]
man. And that there's just powerful
people on these tapes and no matter
what, because it's both sides of the
[ __ ] aisle. Uh that they're never
going to release it. And every time I
say this out loud, in my head, I'm
saying, "Slow down. Map cause and
effect. Go off what you know." Uh as
Michael Malice says, take one red pill,
not the whole bottle. Like I try not to
get ahead of myself and uh get sucked
into conspiracy theory land. I like a
good conspiracy theory like anybody
else, but this one admittedly has wedged
itself in my brain in a way that I can't
shake to where I'm reading into like
when he looks at the camera, when he
looks at Joe, like [ __ ] analyzing
everything in his body movements and I
was just like he cleared his throat. Uh
oh god. So, I need to be a little bit
careful getting uh obsessive with this
one, but it's a clear indication that I
have come to believe that there really
are uh people behind the scenes like do
you know CFR CFR Council on Foreign
Relations? It's interesting. It makes
its way through the book um The Creature
from Jackal Island. And I I thought
about covering it in my um deep dive and
I ended up not doing it because I feel
like I need to do more work on it like
to see if there's really something
there. But there's a distressing number
of really highle people. It's like
something like this is directionally
correct like eight out of the last 12
presidents were CFR members. It's crazy.
So, and uh it's like a think tank
invitation only like they don't publish
their whole membership like kind of
thing. Yeah. And I don't know, man.
Secret of Society vibes. Yeah. Yeah.
Like Skull and Bones, that kind of [ __ ]
I'm just like me. So, I need to be
careful with this one. I'm probably out
over my skis. That's all I got. Awesome.
If you guys are not already watching our
lives, make sure you join us 6 a.m.
Pacific time Wednesday and Friday. I'll
see you there. Obama reported 9 million
people. There wasn't a single protest in
downtown LA. Biden imported deported
more people than Trump. There wasn't a
single protest in downtown LA. Trump is
agitating people. That's the That's the
point that's like frustrating me.
Okay. So, uh to act as if LA does not
have an illegal immigrant problem is
insane.
Second, that those that those words
never came out of my mouth. Yeah, that
was certainly the implication that LA is
not the place that you would go when
you're talking about illegal immigrants.
that that first of all, the southern
border of California is for sure one of
the places that people are coming over.
Uh do they stay in San Diego? No, they
come up to Los Angeles. Why? Because
there's more opportunity here. So, um,
that strikes me as very weird without at
all saying that, uh, I'm perfectly open
to is Trump coming to LA specifically
because he wants to like make it a flash
point so that we can talk about it
maybe. But he's on Fox News all the
time. He's getting praises for being a
law law and order president. He's
already getting political capital.
You're you're in this moment. You're
defending him in this act, saying he's
just doing what he what I voted for him
to do. That's that's the win that Trump
is getting by doing this. Okay, first of
all, um I'm not defending Trump. What
I'm saying is the debate for me is do we
protect borders or not? When people come
across the border, do we deport them or
not? When people are rioting, do we draw
a line between peaceful protests and
riots or not? Do we let things burn
fast, which is where this argument
started, which sounds absolutely crazy
to me. Or do we actually say, "We're
going to enforce this. You guys are not
children. You do not get to lash out."
And the more that we let people lash
out, then the more they're going to lash
out because they're going to be
emboldened. Now, at what I'll call the
11th hour of that argument, you're
introducing the idea that this is really
just about political capital. Now, in
your defense, you brought that up very
early the last time we talked about it,
so I know it's sincere. I know you're
not just trying to um pull off that
subject, but I think you have to take
these things one by one. Even if Trump
is doing this purely for political
capital, you know what that's going to
trigger in me. Yes, politicians going to
politic. Period. End of story. There
isn't going to be a politician that
doesn't politic. So Trump is going to
you first of all, the country is so
different now than it was when Obama was
in office. But setting that aside, uh
there's no doubt that Trump is going to
do everything he can to stay in power.
That's the game. I am very unnerved by
how often he talks about a third term.
So Trump gets no pass from me. I do not
consider myself a Republican. I do not
consider myself on the right. I do not
consider myself team Trump. None of that
[ __ ] I am there is an end state that
I'm trying to get to. fiscally
responsible, safe, the land of
opportunity, personal freedom, like
though that's what I'm looking for for
America. You know my stance. You come
back out of the car far enough and
you're going to see that this is a
response to [ __ ] debt.
Now, zooming back in on the issue, it to
me right now, this moment is a question
of how do you respond to people that are
being violent? And the the overwhelming
argument that I hear from you, setting
aside the this is for political capital,
which I will just concede because
everything any politician ever does is
for political capital. But the
overwhelming argument that I hear from
you is that if you just left them alone
to burn a few things, then this would go
back to normal and we would be fine. And
what I'm saying is that that argument
just to stay on that is where we
disagree. If you just leave them alone
long enough, this would go away. Yes, it
would burn fast. I think is what you
said. I said that. But I think that's a
much different argument than allow
people to do whatever they want for a
night and just turn your head to it. The
reason So where's your line if it isn't
breaking? The reason I'm The reason I'm
not so up upy about a car fire is
because I'm a sports fan. So I've seen
when people win games and championships
and you go through the parade and people
flip over cars, they burn stuff. when
Ruckers uh beat Louisville, that was
like our biggest. We we were they they
were number three. We beat them. We took
down the uh cross links. We went outside
like so I have seen people go outside
and riot for a celebration for a sports
team for things like that. Yes, cars
were burned. Yes, windows were broken.
Yes, things like that. So to me, I have
seen things happen like that that didn't
equal civil war, it equaled excessive uh
expression. So I am a little bit less I
see a car on fire. We need martial law
because again any national championship
who called for martial law or I'm sorry
national guard. Um I see national guard
I I don't see car fire equals national
guard and that's the thing that's
different for me now. Everybody wants to
bring up black lives matter. Everybody
wants to bring up 2020. I think all of
this is just an open scab from that. And
I think that the honest thing is that
we're looking through we're looking at
this and saying if we allow them to
protest it's going to equal that. And I
think we're making a lot of assumptions.
I think we're jumping the gun a little
bit. And that's where even with Nuome
and Karen Bass, which I would say for
the record, I think LA um in California
has terrible leadership.
But that's if you're going to say
politic is going to politic and be okay
with Trump politicking um and going to a
sanctuary city to enforce his policies.
You can't then look at Newsome and Karen
Bass trying to defend themselves saying
they had it under control and say they
were stupid. They they didn't have it
under control. I feel like you can't
have it both. If the politicians are
going to say whatever they can to rile
up their bases, then we should take all
the politicians off the table. Now, if
we're just going back to Okay, I think
there's a way to take all the
politicians off the table. What I'm
saying is it is irrelevant to me whether
Trump did this as a stunt. What's
happening is the response is the
response. And so if if he came here
because it's like I know that this is
going to get coverage. I know I'm going
to be able to make my point which I
don't know that I buy. That sounds super
counterintuitive to me. Apple released a
paper on LLMs they called the illusion
of thinking understanding the strengths
and limitations of reasoning models via
the lens of problem complexity. Now,
this was a super wordy document, but
something that jumped out to me that I
wanted to highlight here. Current
evaluations primarily focus on
established mathematical encoding
benchmarks, emphasizing final answer
accuracy. However, this evaluation
paradigm also shifts often suffers from
data contamination and does not provide
insights into the reasoning, traces,
structure, and quality. In this work, we
systematically investigate these gaps
with the help of controllable puzzle
environments that allow precise
manipulation of comp compositional
compositional complexity while
maintaining consistent logical
structures. This setup enables the
analysis of not only final answers but
also the internal reasoning traces
offering insights into how LRM quote
unquote think. The reason they're
writing this is to say that they don't
actually think that they think. They
just recognize patterns and regurgitate
and kind of spit it back out. 100%
So, no beef on that. And then on the
flip side, Sam Alman said that the new
uh uh 03, I think it's we're at 05 um 03
Pro just dropped 03 is fundamentally
smarter than him and he's okay with
that. So, it seems like on saying I just
tested it out for the first time today.
It's so [ __ ] slow. Yeah, the I was
mortified. It It was like doing deep
research for a really basic question.
So, I think that you're only going to
ask that thing like really hardcore
[ __ ] which hey, great. another tool in
the toolkit. I love it. But it took like
literally 15 minutes to get a response
to a single not like go do research on
this. It's like a very simple question.
Yeah. Um so that'll have its limitations
but hey great like it's a tool that we
can use going back to what you were
talking about. So this is the
fundamental question. This is the thing
that makes me uh curious as to whether
Yan Lun would make a good interview for
me. Yan Lun believes guys, LLMs are
simply guessing at the most likely next
token given the context that you gave
it. It has gone out and taken in the
world's information. And this is why
it's always going to feel like uh a mid
writer because it's like it is literally
giving you the mid answer, the the most
likely answer. Now, you can probably
skew that through uh reinforcement by
saying, "Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah, that
might be the most common, but this is
actually the best." So, you know, you
start bumping it up up up, but he's
saying it will never understand the
physical world. It just can't because
it's just a pattern recognition device.
Now, my hope is that Yan is wrong for
the following reason that all of the
patterns are there. We're just not able
to see the patterns because we cannot
take in the data from all the different
sources. And so for instance, what
Einstein was noticing in his imagination
was a pattern that nobody else had
recognized. That for all the things that
I know and see in the world to be true,
the following thing would have to be
true. That if I were traveling at the
speed of light and I turned a flashlight
on, the light is going to race ahead of
me. It's not going to stand next to me.
And so, uh, that's when he was like,
"Holy [ __ ] this is actually relative."
Uh, and I have a feeling that that is
what we're going to learn from um,
LLMs that you guys just aren't seeing
the patterns. All right, everybody. If
you haven't already, be sure to
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