Kind: captions
Language: en
Ukraine launches successful drone attack
deep into Russian territory. Russia
calls it the Russian Pearl Harbor and
vows a devastating response. Elon calls
the big beautiful bill a disgusting
abomination. An Egyptian national lit
people on fire in an attempt to kill
Zionists. Two Chinese nationals caught
smuggling a deadly fungus into the US
metabis nuclear plant. And Cory Booker
throws up a Nazi salute. We can jump
into NY Post article right now. of
Russia seeks destruction of Ukraine and
victory, not compromise. So the
interesting thing about what's happening
here is previously I thought that the
big talk out of them was really to get
to a negotiating position from a place
of strength and you know we were going
to get this negotiated and get out of
there. I never thought Trump was going
to be able to do it in a day, but I
certainly thought that he'd be able to
wrap it up pretty quickly. Um, now my
mental model is very much Putin has
absolutely no desire to end the war.
That he's turned his economy over to a
wartime engine. He's made promises to
his people. Uh, my mental map, if I'm
being very honest, is that he has
territorial ambitions, that this isn't
just about pushing back um on the NATO
expansion. This just feels like somebody
who doesn't want the exit ramps he's
being offered, that he's back. Yeah.
that he that for sure he is posturing
publicly as if he's interested in peace
but then doing absolutely nothing to
move towards that which then tells me
okay the public facing stuff is just
completely irrelevant you can throw it
out this is a former uh KGB officer um
so I guess I shouldn't have been too
surprised so I do feel like I came into
this one a bit naive I was projecting my
own value system onto Putin all the
rhetoric from Trump about we just want
the killing to end. Like that resonated
with me so hard that I just paint that
onto everybody and I don't think that
that's what we're looking at. Yeah.
Again, 7 billion in damages and some of
the destruction included nuclear
bombers. Now, of course, they weren't
nuclear armed, but the delivery systems
in which Russia used, they have claimed
that that constitutes nuclear response.
They haven't made a plan yet. They
haven't launched anything in response.
But if Russia does escalate this war,
how bad do you see it getting?
Based on this, I think the likelihood
that they escalate to something nuclear
is exceedingly low. But I really do feel
like this I'm so at the beginning of my
journey down this. This is really time
that I spent with Ian Bremer, time that
I spent with Annie Jacobson. Um, looking
at that. So, um, ask me again in a week
because after this I'm really going to
start deep diving into this stuff. So,
my gut instinct is that this isn't going
to escalate to that point yet. But what
I worry about is with them calling this
their Pearl Harbor, with them vowing
that they're going to have a response
that matches the energy of the US's
response to the actual Pearl Harbor, uh
to them saying that um attacking the
facilities in the way that Ukraine did
um meet the requirements of their
nuclear doctrine. So technically
according to Russia's own um internal
rules of engagement they are now
authorized to use nuclear weapons. To
your point they have not said that
they're going to uh but they've
certainly flirted with it before this
and now pointing out that they have
crossed the line. This really becomes a
question of where do we go from here? So
if they hit back and they hit back
extremely
aggressively Europe then starts going
okay whoa we've now started taking this
seriously. We realize the US isn't going
to pay our bills. We're starting to
invest in our own military. We're
looking at our own economies. Our own
economies aren't necessarily great. Uh
if Europe gets any sort of like buddy
cop juice around, hey, like we could
under the guise
of they're they've invaded a sovereign
nation. They're putting Europe at risk.
We're now really going to start backing
Ukraine. I don't think they're going to
go boots on the ground yet, but it's
just that tit fortat escalation where
now if Europe really starts getting
behind them uh and then Ukraine has the
ability to hit again or if Ukraine has
another uh operation spiderweb uh if
they have another thing like that laying
dormant ready to strike. Uh you could
just see this going back and forth, back
and forth, back and forth until it does
get very serious where Europe finds
themselves really pulled in or Russia
does something that crosses a line and
the US uh gets sucked into the NATO
treaty and then has to respond. Um, so
there's certainly a fractal to be had
about what the US response is going to
be to this. But for now, I would say
that the real watch cases between
Europe, who's clearly going to back
Ukraine, Ukraine, and then Russia, and
how escalatory that response gets. It
reminds me of a boxing match. You know,
when you hit somebody and they start to
stumble, every trainer will tell you,
"Now's the time to double down." So to
me it's almost like okay the little
engine that could Ukraine taking on this
big monster country they got a good hit
Russia is reeling from this attack over
the weekend is now the time to double
down triple down and say okay while
they're licking their wounds on this
side we attack them on this side or we
hit some point of critical
infrastructure and almost escalate the
conflict or do you think just my worry
is if we give Putin time to sit chill
strategize he is then going to be like
okay I'm playing and now I'm going to
increase the amount my my retaliation is
going to be a thousandfold similar to
what we're seeing in uh Palestine and
Israel. So I I don't want to necessarily
give Russia those time to kind of line
their coffers and be ready for a
response. But at the same time to your
point I'm not sure if Europe or even US
is ready to say okay we support you for
another offensive. Um do you think
Ukraine should take advantage of this
moment or is it just like a waiting
game? Yeah, if I'm Ukraine, uh, and I
launched an attack the day before the
peace negotiations, one of two things is
true. Either I'm trying to send a
message to come into the peace talks and
say, "Hey, listen. We're not the little
kid that you think we are. Uh, we've
been planning this for a very long time.
We executed this with precision. We're
certainly going to make you believe,
whether it's true or not, we're going to
make you believe that we can do it again
and again and again." Um, that's option
one. Option two is I don't give a [ __ ]
YOLO. Like now we're going all in and we
are going to unleash. If America's
backing away, we realize we have to be
hyperaggressive. Uh we've got there's no
universe in which Ukraine has popped off
this hard unless they believe they have
an ace up their sleeve. M
now the irony at least in the way that I
read the situation is that as soon as
they said Ukraine did this all on their
own I was like oh cool you're backed by
somebody that sounded so fake like that
sounded like the most like no no trust
me like there's nobody in the class
themselves so I was just like all right
so my instinct is Europe wants something
I'm too naive on Europe's position right
now I have a gut instinct but it's pure
emotion
So, I don't know what Europe's, but I
think that they want this. I think that
they want to push. They're going to use
the cover story of we've got to protect
Europe. Russia is a territorial
aggressor. We've got to like drive these
guys back. And that's real. I'm not
saying that it's not. Uh it's just I
don't think they're doing it to be
altruistic. I think Europe Europe has
completely lost its way. I think that
they are in cultural trouble for sure. I
need to look deeper at their economic
woes, but they certainly aren't going
gang busters. You look at China's
popping off. The US is continues to be
either one or two in strongest economy.
Um, you've got the Middle East really
starting to call shots, moving into a
modern economy. So, they've really got
to find something. And if that something
is a wartime economy, um, that could
spell trouble. So, if they're the ace up
Zalinsk's sleeve, he's popped off this
hard because he knows that he can count
on them either to fund or that they're
like, "Hey, if XYZ things happens, we'll
actually join you militarily." Um, then
this could get weird really fast. So, I
don't know which of the two is true. The
peace talks fell apart essentially
instantly. They were in there for a
couple of hours and then they they
parted ways. um which they both think
that they can win. So it looked like for
a minute that Zalinsky really wanted
peace. He was negotiating. He was
allowing Trump to effectively set the
negotiating table for him. He kept
agreeing, kept being willing to show up.
So if it's option one and he just wanted
to be at the big boy chair in the peace
talks, fair enough. But that's an ultra
high-risisk maneuver. And I have a
feeling that we're probably more in
bucket two, which is I can't count on
America. I maybe have Europe on I know I
have Europe on my side and maybe I have
them way on my side more than anybody
has announced publicly. And so I'm going
to start taking my shots, taking real
shots to push in. It's possible they
think that they're winning the AI game.
It seems like Operation Spiderweb is
really an AI play according to Ukraine.
And I'm so hyper aware that we're being
spun all the time. Every word out of
each side's mouth is all like
programming and counterprogramming and
they're just trying to get us all to
believe what they want us to believe.
But anyway, according to Ukraine, they
pulled all their um operatives out of
Russia before they launched the attack.
If that's true, then there's no way that
they were manually flying the drones
because the range isn't long enough. So,
that means that they've got AI that
could identify the planes, find them,
get to them, uh launch, which I mean,
shout out to Ukraine. This is a pretty
slick operation. But if they think that
they're winning that war, then it's it's
also possible that they're like, "Okay,
we've cracked over a new technology and
we're going to take it to them." Yeah.
To your point, the peace talks ended
just after an hour and the only thing
they agreed on was a new prisoner swap
and the exchange of 12,000 dead soldiers
between both sides, but no ceasefire
deal. What do you think has to be true
for America to say, "All right, guys. I
tag me in. Let's bring this. Let's get
the Marines in there. Let's actually go
him." Like, that is a really good
question. So, I'll answer because I hate
it when people dodge questions, but I
really reserve the right to think better
about this. Um, I think right now for
the US to get involved, Russia would
have to do something directly to us or
something that triggered a NATO treaty.
Um, I think that Trump is very sketchy
about his commitments to NATO. So, it
also wouldn't surprise me if in the
coming months as he sees the escalation
worring up here um that he talks about
ways to get out. But if he doesn't get
out and Putin does something that either
makes Trump feel disrespected,
um, both, this is a better way to say
it, both makes Trump feel disrespected
and crosses some line that any
reasonable person would look at that and
be like, "What the fuck?" That could be
um use of a dirty bomb. So, not mushroom
cloud nuclear, but still I think it's
depleted uranium or something like that.
was still bad news bears. Um, so if he
did that while doing something that
makes Trump feel disrespected, I could
see maybe Trump, but I really think
Trump is going to try to like back off
of this, say, "This is Europe's problem.
You guys deal with it." Um, that's my
instinct. We watched a video a couple
months ago, and I'm blanking on the
guy's name, who was like, "Everybody's
scared of Russia, but they can't even
take on Ukraine." And I kind of laughed
in that moment. I was like, "Oh, well,
we're they're taking it easy on Ukraine.
Ukraine clearly isn't taking it easy on
Russia. $7 billion worth of damage. They
damaged bombers. Like it it put a a
[ __ ] in Russia's armor. I do think
though the fact that Ukraine is taking,
you know, Russia to overtime for as
using a sports analogy. Is this
incentive for Europe and US to hop in
this war and say, "All right, guys. If
we were a part of it, it would have been
already over. You know, if the guy at
the end of the bench is taking this guy
to overtime, if I bring in my dream team
starters, we should be able to wrap this
up pretty soon. So, is there
some Captain Fury inside of you, Tom,
that's thinking like, "All right, if the
US was on it, in four weeks, this thing
will be wrapped up. Let's kill Putin,
get him out of here, take all the
minerals, and we'll just go al-Qaeda
again 2001." I just want the record to
reflect. Drew had some big energy before
we started rolling about how I I sent
$75 trillion of assets in Russia and
let's go get this fool. Uh I I think
it's probably a little bit different
than that. So you've got voices in the
US calling for um the removal of
Zalinski. I think America is very
conflicted about whose side are we on.
Gotcha. Trump is very good at reading
the political tea leaves. I think again
I've not spent a lot of time thinking
about this, but my instinct as of right
now planting a flag at the time of this
recording is Trump will read the tea
leaves. He will realize that this is not
something that America is united on.
This is not the 8020 the kind of thing
that he likes to react to. I think he's
going to be trying to back out of this.
Um I don't think that um we're gonna be
whether we can put the dream team
together and take on Russia or not.
don't think that we've got the political
um unity to pull that off and Trump
knows better than to go after things
that he doesn't have people behind him
on. Also, Russia is where empires [ __ ]
up all the time. Reading about Napoleon,
Napoleon and the Napoleonic Wars. Uh how
first basically Napoleon goes into
Russia and just gets his ass handed to
him. The battle that he's famous for
losing is Waterlue. But where he really
lost his mojo was in Russia, World War
II, obviously we go to Stalingrad and
and Russia's just like, "Bro, do you
know how many people we will throw at
this? They have a culture that is just
okay with throwing young men into the
grinder of a military stalemate and they
will just wear you down." Mhm. And then
the reason, so that's part number one.
Why are people afraid of Russia even
though they can't defeat Ukraine?
History just shows that they will just
keep throwing people and throwing people
and throwing people and throwing people
and they'll just wear you down. So they
may not push into your country, but holy
Jesus, they're not going to let you push
into theirs. So that's part number one.
And part number two is you have to
remember this is
um what this would be the equivalent of
going up against a boxer who you can see
has a rocket launcher in his belt. And
so you're punching and you're hoping he
sticks to the punches because if at any
point he decides that to remind
everybody that he is the largest nuclear
power on planet Earth, then he just
nukes you. And so the thing you don't
want to do is back Putin into a corner
where he feels like he has no other
options. Now I don't feel like I I don't
share enough values with Putin where I
can map him by turning inward. So I have
no idea what he would do if he felt
backed into a corner. Um with my
sensibility I don't just start throwing
nukes. So but is it possible that he
would? And so that's reason number two
why people are afraid. They just don't
know what he's going to do. And so when
you've got somebody that legitimately
you're like, I don't know how they're
going to react to this situation, you
have to be very careful. So he may not
have the military, he may not have the
economy to win in the sort of bizarrely
World War I trenchy warfare that we find
ourselves in now. But he knows at any
time he can stop playing that game and
start playing the mushroom cloud game.
And that's that's the big joker. That's
the the queen if he's on the chess board
that changes and I think anybody would
be a fool like 75 trillion or not like
this is just that is that is a crazy
game. Now listen humans history is a
long string of people doing the most
absurd evil [ __ ] because they think that
they can take somebody's resources. Uh,
so God only knows if we've got people in
Europe just, you know, ringing their
evil little hands thinking that they'll
go in or if we've got people in America
ringing their evil little hands saying
that we can go in. I certainly hope not.
Well, from a potential nuclear war to
losing a political war, Elon Musk is at
it again. He tweeted earlier today, "I'm
sorry, but I just can't take it. This
massive, outrageous, pork filled
congressional spending bill is a
disgusting abomination. Shame on those
who voted for it. You know you did
wrong. You know it. Um the big beautiful
bill is not getting a lot of love. This
is something that should have been a
slam dunk for Trump holding control of
both the House and the Senate. But even
people in his own party have voted
against it. They have been criticizing
the 5 trillion estimated additional
money to the deficit over the next 10
years. What say you about the big
beautiful bill? Okay. So this is where I
remind everybody six degrees of central
banking. Aha. If you don't understand
the deficit spending is how the current
monetary system stays alive. Debt is the
oxygen to the economic fire. Let me say
that again. Debt is the oxygen to the
current economic fire. There is no way
there is no way to pay off the debt
without printing more money. Which means
inflation is I' I've written deep dives
where I talk about inflation. I say,
"Oh, I used to think that it was like
just a law of nature that that inflation
happened." And I'm realizing it is a
law. It's just a man-made law. Uh so
when you've got Elon looking at the big
beautiful bill and you're asking, "Why
are people super annoyed about this?"
The reality is that inflation is
necessary. It didn't matter who got
elected, there was going to be
inflation. It's just at different rates.
So I believe that if we'd elected Kamla,
it'd be even worse. Don't even get me
started on the authoritarian stuff and
the fact that we didn't have a real
president, blah blah blah. Um, but they
would have printed
faster, but the Republicans were always
going to print as well because we have
to. It is the fundamental structure of
our system. And so, we've talked about
this before. Anybody paying attention
will go, Tom, that's absurd. Um, Clinton
balanced the budget and we had a
surplus, so you're dumb. Uh, and I would
say go research that period. Alan
Greenspan understands the system as well
as I'm sure Jerome Pal does and uh he
made credit very easy. So the corporate
debt skyrocketed. So during that same
period while we had a tight budget from
a government perspective which is good
and wonderful and we should all want it
um he knows you have to inflate Fed the
Fed went straight to consumer for that
period when the government consumer
because there's three types of debt.
There's corporate, there's consumer, and
there's government. And he went after
corporate. So, um, it's just once people
understand that this is a law of
economic physics that if you print a
trillion dollars and there's 5%
interest, then 1 trillion and 50 billion
is owed. The 50 billion has to comes
come from somewhere and that somewhere
is inflation. Period. End of story. And
given that we have $ 36 trillion and
sometimes more than 5% interest, it's
it's just an obscene amount of money. So
every time I look at this stuff and I
start drilling down and look, I I I will
admit I think that ultimately it is a
very productive simplification when I
say everything goes back to central
banking. It's productive and it's so
much closer to the truth than the way
that people think now that I'm going to
keep saying it. Uh but for longtime
listeners of the show, yes, I know that
I'm oversimplifying it, but holy Jesus,
there's uh there were multiple studies
done. Only between 16 and 20% of
Americans actually understand how the
Fed works. And Drew, I am willing to
bet that if you actually let me sit with
that 20% and I start asking them
questions, they're going to fall apart.
Yeah. So, like the this is my favorite
uh clip to ever show. It's like in every
deep dive that I write. Uh you've got
the former chair of the economic
adviserss for Biden who legitimately got
caught on camera just not being able to
explain how it works. And so, what's
that 20% really? Like, if you count me
in that 20% even I know I had there's an
edge at which I'm like, "Wait, how does
that work?" because every time you look
at it, there's like another layer and
another layer and it's like, God, I
really try to get as close to being able
to track like who asks the Fed like,
"Hey, I'm going to make this debt."
Like, who's the person? What role are
they in all the way through? Like,
somebody's paying interest on that debt
and it's worked its way into the system.
And even there, I'm like, I'll routinely
find that, oh, wait a second. Actually,
I don't know how it goes from here to
here. So I would for sure be counted in
the 20% even I have my limitations.
Okay. What what's the incentive with the
federal bank? Because hearing what you
just said to me it sounds like okay the
big beautiful bill is not able to be
smaller because the Fed is owed money.
It's really two reasons and forgive me
for interrupting you but I didn't do a
good job of I didn't explain the second
one at all. So the first is inflation is
absolutely necessary. You have to have
it. The second is politicians are best
understood as playing a mchavelian game.
For some reason, people push back on
that. That that is utterly shocking to
me. But anyway, uh meaning people are
trying to get into power and stay in
power. Seems so uncontroversial to me.
Uh so what's the easiest way to get into
power? Promise somebody something for
free. So if you're a politician in a
system where you absolutely must create
new
debt and you have to promise people free
things, it's like uh I can actually meet
the obligations of the economic system
by promising free things. This is way
too fantastic. So, this is why we're in
this like super weird period where even
conservatives who should be just like
fiscally minded, fiscally responsible,
got to balance the budget, don't care.
Even that not only do they not care,
they can't care because they have to get
elected. And we live in a world where
people are getting promised stuff all
the time. Like, if you're just stone
cold, you're an alien, you come and
you're aware of accounting, you look at
and go, "Your entitlements are the
problem. cut your entitlements. But
that's the third rail. You can't do it.
Like no one is going to go for that
because once you give somebody something
for free, you don't get to take it away.
So now we're in this position where
let's say I'm a Republican. I've got to
be like balance the budget and take a
bunch of free [ __ ] Like it's so weird.
And that's what the big beautiful bill
is is it's the collision of these two
things. You've got everybody knows just
print print. You you can literally print
until the end of time. And the only one,
Drew, that gets punished is people that
hold or get paid in dollars. That's it.
It's just every American. Just those
people plus some gigantic port like 60%
of all transactions are in dollars uh
worldwide. So that's it. You only hurt
all of those people. Yeah. So uh people
just do it with reckless abandon because
it works until it doesn't. And it it
moves so slowly. Like imagine that you
make suit jackets, but you don't
actually have to make them. You just
say, "I now have a thousand suit
jackets." You didn't have to make them.
And then people will actually buy those
suit jackets and pay you interest. But
you didn't make anything, dude. It's so
crazy. It's so crazy that the more you
learn about it, the more you
like, why aren't people running around
in the streets
screaming and the reality is it's just
complicated enough. It's just
complicated enough that people aren't
going to spend time with it. And you
grew up with it. You're just like, you
don't even think about it. Yeah. Oh,
that's weird. My parents told me that
gas used to be like 36 cents. Haha,
that's crazy. For me, it's $6. But you
don't think about what what Drew,
refining oil into gas has gotten
cheaper. So why has the cost gone up?
Transportation has gotten cheaper.
Explain again why the costs have gone
up. This doesn't make sense. The reason
the costs have gone up is because
inflation hits 2%. Because first of all,
they print their way through all of the
reduction in cost that you would get
from innovation
plus 2%. It's crazy. So, we never catch
up, dude. What a heist. What a heist.
Imagine, how do you get to be those
guys? I want to be those guys. Imagine,
Drew, that you and I were the only ones
that we could create a YouTube video
just by saying it exists and then we got
millions of views just by saying it
exists. How [ __ ] crazy. It's crazy.
We'll get back to the show in a moment,
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to the show.
Okay, I get that side on the big
beautiful bill side. Now, this is
fundamentally a disconnect to me where
we have to be responsible. We have to
balance the budget for the future
generations, but we're going to add 200
billion here. We're going to add 400
billion here. We're not going to cut
these things. I understand entitlements
is a big tangled web, but defense
spending in the peace time president
went up 150 million. So, there's certain
billion, excuse me, 150 billion. Isn't
there something we can do on the big
beautiful bill side? At least knowing
that yes, the creature from Jericho
Island exists. The Fed is the monster
that's taking from everybody, but that
should make us even more fiscally
responsible with this bill. That should
make us more focused and paying
attention to trying to reduce these
costs. Is it really just because I don't
want to I want us to keep this job, so
I'm just going to get this bill through?
Like what's the motivation on the big
beautiful bill side? You think the
politicians aren't trying to work around
it, reduce the spending, things like
that? They're not going to get elected
if they don't get rad stuff for their
constituents and their constituents
don't want to pay for it. So a
politician's sort of rational incentive
is to what they call pork filled to go
and say, "Okay, I'll vote for this, but
you're going to give me this thing." And
now you've got however many members of
Congress, however many senators being
like, "I've got to go back and tell my
people I got your thing in the bill."
And so it just looks like this
ridiculous pork- fil uh disgusting
abomination. I mean that that it is just
the nature of the game. Part of the
reason I think that Elon is having such
an allergic reaction to it and Lord
knows I have my bias. But Drew, when you
run a company, you're just like, yo,
you've got to be so disciplined about
how you spend money. And when you look
at the way that a government is run and
you start I mean now I'm projecting, but
you start thinking about all the like I
remember when I worked in a paint
factory and I remember the guys that I
worked in the paint factory with. These
are not people with tons of money. They
are struggling to make ends meet. And
life has an extra layer of stress
because they just don't make enough
[ __ ] money. And the government's
going to take a significant chunk and
waste it. They're they're just going to
piss it into the wind of the nature of
politics and money. And so that's
brutal, man. You expect politicians to
fight for it, but we're living in an age
of social
media and a brief window where you have
the greatest capital allocator of all
time with the biggest microphone on
planet Earth who is
screaming trying to articulate that this
is so [ __ ] broken. And what does he
get for his troubles? Firebombed, death
threats,
stinking stock number, all those things.
Yeah. Do you think the big beautiful
bill is going to get passed? The
senators will almost certainly ask for
changes. I don't know how many people
are in Rand Paul's camp. And I don't
know how many I'm going to have to
research like exactly how bills work. I
know the Senate makes requests for
changes. It goes back to the House. And
so I don't know enough about that
process to have a high degree of
confidence exactly how this is going to
go. But if Rand Paul represents a strong
enough coalition, I would assume um and
he's just drawing a hard and fast line
at the level of spending, we might get
some reductions somewhere. His stance is
very basic, very straightforward, which
is okay, we're 6% over budget, cut 6%
across everything, literally everything.
Um seems reasonable to me. So will that
actually happen? probably not. Jumping
into like the meat and potatoes of the
bill, there are cuts to Medicaid, uh,
SNAP assistance, and those cuts are like
you have to have 80 hours worked in
order to be eligible. You have to have
So, there's certain they're not
necessarily just taking benefits away
from people, but they're increasing the
eligibility threshold for them. So, like
they are cutting quote unquote
entitlements in that way, kind of like a
backhanded way. Do you think you, Tom,
I'm passing you the magical pen on this
bill. Would you cut the 6% from
military? Would you cut the increases?
Where do you think they should start
some of these reductions? I think that
we have a philosophical problem as much
as we have like just a raw spending
problem.
Um, so from an entitlement's
perspective, like I and look, I get it.
I'm a workaholic. I have found that I
get so much meaning and purpose out of
my work and all that. Um, but I really
do believe that people need to earn
their keep. Just full stop. And so, uh,
bumping up the retirement age, yep, no
problem. Um, if you're not even trying
to get a job and you're able-bodied, you
no more benefits for you. Like, there
should be requirements for people to get
to work. I do not expect that to be
popular. And I am not running for
office, but that is very much how I view
the world. I I really believe that the
human animal gets something incredibly
necessary out of contributing to the
group. And the easiest way to think
about contributing to the group is to
contribute to the economy to generate
taxable revenue um or earnings. So yeah,
that that would be like if I were dumb
enough to ever run for office, that
would be what I would foolishly campaign
on and needless to say would crash and
burn because that is not going to be
popular. And would you say that like the
philosophical problem that Americans
have is that we want to take care of
things versus where we need we don't
like the cutting, the budgeting, those
types of conversations. We only like the
free handout convers. The problem that
America has is very simple. You have to
want the friction between the two sides.
You have to want people to be
compassionate and you have to want
people to want to make demands that you
be the hardest core [ __ ] ever.
And the second the left thinks the right
is a bunch of fools and the right thinks
the left are a bunch of fools, you have
a problem. Stop the division. understand
that we are still in the jungle and that
we are going to have to be razor sharp
to continue to be uh the number one
country in the world. People have taken
it for granted and we are going to pay
an extraordinary price. And man, if you
don't give a [ __ ] about yourself, if
you're not thinking about the next
generation, that is the biggest [ __ ]
move of all
time. Be number one. It has its
privileges. That is why people want to
come here. And we have somehow taken
this for granted in a way that I find
repulsive. I don't know what the [ __ ]
people are thinking, man. But it's like
you've got to want that dynamic tension.
And you've really got to strive to be
the best. We shall see. The bill is in
the Senate now. We'll see if it gets the
final approval and gets out of there. We
are sending our thoughts and prayers to
Colorado after a crazy attack over the
weekend where eight were hurt from a
flamethrower um attack. Let's jump into
CNN for their coverage of it. Eight
people were injured at the event held in
support of Israeli hostages in Gaza. It
was a disturbing scene. Smoke rising
after the FBI says a man used a
makeshift flamethrower and threw an
incendiary device into the crowd. Among
the injured was a Holocaust survivor.
One of the people who attended the event
told CNN. So, eight injured. He had a
Molotov cocktail, a flamethrower. I just
seen that he tried to get a gun, but
because of his uh immigr immigrant
background, he wasn't approved for it.
So, this could have been a lot worse.
Where are these vigilantes coming from?
First, we had the United CEO. Then, we
had the two people shot outside the
embassy. Now, a flamethrower attack.
What do you think is happening in like
these people's psyches at this moment?
Let's assume for a second that you just
think, yo, what what Israel is doing is
a new holocaust. This is a genocide. And
uh it just absolutely must be stopped at
all
costs. Going to a random march in
Colorado and throwing a Molotov cocktail
on people to try to burn them to death
uh is unadulterated evil. And if you are
if you view yourself as fighting a
monster, be careful that you don't
become the monster. There is a reason
that both Superman and Batman in the
comics refused to kill. They didn't want
to become that guy. So in some of the
modern interpretations, people play him
a little darker than they were meant to
be. And I think this is part of man,
honestly, this is a part of the death of
religion. And I'm not a believer, but
you have to have a moral compass. You
have to have something upon which you
just say, uh, this is this is ought.
this is how things ought to be. Uh, and
for whatever reason historically, it has
helped people to say, "This is how it
ought to be because God said so." Great.
Let's get back to something like that.
Like, if you can't have a moral compass
in and of yourself, uh, then rely on
religion. And this is part of why I am
so grateful to have grown up in a
Judeo-Christian ethic heavy on the
Christian because the breakthrough of
um somebody died for your sins and
everybody is equal. Every life at the
individual level is sacred and divine.
Dude, that changes the way people view
the world.
And again, I don't believe in God, but I
believe in that. So that to me is
missing in moments like this. And
honestly, dude, this is where I'm like,
I don't know. There's going to be a
clash of views. And I am so curious to
see how this plays out. I have no idea
what this is going to be on a long
enough timeline. what you see embodied
cuz he's Egyptian. I am presuming that
uh this is somebody who is a an Islamist
certainly extremist beliefs from where
I'm sitting. If you're burning people
alive, I don't know what that's going to
look like at scale, but this is going to
be something I have a very bad feeling
I'm going to be researching and learning
a lot about because I think it's going
to matter a lot in the coming years. I
feel like this is hurting Israel as
opposed
to helping Palestine. And I know that
those things seem like they'll be the
same thing, but these videos, these
attacks,
these this like the Colorado thing is
hurting Israel. Yes. Because it's
like you're to fight terrorism with more
terrorism. I don't necessarily think
that's a win. I agree. This guy
presumably is on the Palestinian side,
not the Israeli side. Yes. But the fact
that you're so Palestinian that you're
now burning people, I think is hurting
your cause. And then when we get hurting
Palestinians, you said hurting Israel.
The the reason why I think Israel is
going to be ultimately penalized for
this is because I think the fact that
it's having these ramifications on the
world
stage penalized by this. What do you
mean? the social meter, the social
attention that it's getting, how people
feel, how people feel about the Israel
Palestine conflict. So going so ham on
Gaza is just absolutely devastating.
Israel going ham on Gaza, you're saying,
right? Israel going ham on Gaza is
causing Israel international
reputational damage. Yes. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Totally agree. I thought you were
saying this hurts Israel.
But going with that, the fact that like
people are saying, "I'm going to help
Palestine. let me commit a terror
attack. It it it brings more attention
back to the war, more attention back to
and then people are ultimately going to
be like, well, Israel, you're the you're
the big guy in the room. You should take
you should be the bigger person. So,
you're saying this is working if for no
other reason than it draws attention
that it has the exact effect that they
want it to have. Yeah. Yeah. Uh I mean,
yes. I think you have to separate two
issues. This is an unmitigated act of
evil. Evil. Evil. Evil.
uh Israel's gone too far
and they are creating massive problems.
Now whether Eric Weinstein would agree
that they've gone too far, I will not
speak for him, but I will always um
acknowledge the analogy that he brought
to my attention that I thought was
absolutely brilliant. Uh, and that's
from Breaking Bad where Salamanca, I
think, grabs Mike by the lapel and um,
sorry, Mike grabs him by the lapel and
Salamanca just starts beating the [ __ ]
out of him. And Mike won't let go
because Mike knows if he holds on to
him, he's going to keep beating him and
the cops are going to come arrest him.
That's where I think Israel is because
Hamas is holding the hostages.
Israel just keeps punching and punching
and punching and punching and punching
and punching and punching. And I get it.
I get why they started, dude. And had I
been there, like if that attack had been
in Los Angeles, I I would have been
praying for blood. You also nuts. So I
get the response. And dude, I I would go
full torch my life to the ground if
somebody did that to my wife. I'm just
being fully honest. I am not capable of
being that guy who can like distance
myself and be Christlike. Nope, I'm
going to be a raging lunatic.
Uh but there is a point at which as you
said on the international stage, you're
you're just you're punching so much.
You're going to lose. Right or wrong
doesn't even enter into it anymore. This
is just you're going to lose the battle
of reputation. Yeah. And so, yeah, this
does not resound to their benefit.
That's for sure. It's interesting
because in the Ukraine Russia
conflict, Russia taking their time, you
would think that Russia has the
advantage, but with the UK, with Ukraine
kind of doing the things that it's doing
now, it seems like, okay, wait, Russia
might need to step it up a little bit
more. And I think the opposite is true
with Israel Palestine where Israel has
been battering them. And you would
think, okay, this is going to get
wrapped up pretty soon. But instead of
it being over, they keep just getting
battered. So then now the conversation
is changing to, well, Israel is going a
little bit too far. Israel needs to
stop. And it's less about a ceasefire
peace terms and it's more about war
crimes uh prosecuting Israel. So it's
almost
like will the terrorists win? I know
that's a bit hyper hyperbolic, but I
don't know that it is like if if Hamas
really gets the world to turn on Israel
and be like, "Israel went too far.
They're doing too much. This was wrong."
Yeah. If this really was
Sinir's vision,
evil, but genius.
Is Is this going to make al-Qaeda start
to pick up random people and say, "Hey,
it worked with Hamas. Let's see if we
can get something happening over here."
Like, that's a really good question,
man. This comes down to if you really
are willing to hide
behind your own people. Yeah. Because
what great PR it is to see them blown to
smitherreens.
Uh it's working. It's working. But boy
is it gnarly. And this goes back to um
when something gets sophisticated
enough, it's just hard to parse out.
Like I remember there was um oh god what
was his name? Cole Coleman Hughes um was
on Rogan and he this is really early and
he gave this great breakdown when people
started saying hey I think maybe Israel
is going too far and he was like well if
you let them get away with October 7th
they have created the perfect way to
attack people. You go in you do this
vicious attack. You hide behind your own
people. you know that they can't attack
you because they'll blow up a hospital
or a school or whatever and they look
like the villain. And he was like, you
obviously if you're Israel, you can't
let them do that. And I thought, yeah,
yeah, yeah, 100%.
And then it started getting a little
gray. I was like, well, guys, maybe,
yeah,
maybe maybe we did the thing and at some
point we go, we claim victory.
Uh, and then it just got to the point
where it's like, yikes, this has gotten
rough. Yeah, this has gotten rough. And
to your point of it being a planned
thing, that was MLK's whole thing with
the March on Selma, black people getting
beat up and rioted, it wasn't that big
of a deal. But knowing that they were
going to do it on TV, the newspapers
covered it. So all the bleeding heart
liberals in the Northeast migrated down
to march with them again for the
anniversary. And that was the thing that
kind of started the civil rights
movement u outside of like the bus
boycotts and stuff. So there is
historical context to we might have to
get beat up really bad until the cops
come in order to push this this movement
forward. So it's it's an interesting
take. We'll see if it works. But yeah, I
haven't looked super close at what
Gandhi did, but this sounds reminiscent.
I don't think he was using his people as
human shoes, but I honestly don't know.
Maybe he was. But uh how
nonviolent can lead to probably can't go
that far. I don't think
they're pretty [ __ ] violent. But uh
yeah, I mean look, this is this is fafo
on both sides. You do October 7th to a
power that is militarily greater than
you and you're going to get [ __ ]
hammered. Rightly so. Um, but then if
they've got a winning strategy where
they're just going to let you keep
pummeling them on the equivalent of
national television night after night
after night, people are going to turn
against you. We'll get back to the show
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back to the show. Okay. And I want to
call this a conspiracy theory, but it
seems like they've done triple checked
everything, so this might actually be
legit. And the source is the BBC, but
Mario Norfall just tweeted about a
Chinese couple caught sneaking crop
killing fungus into a Michigan lab. This
is the breakdown of the story. Two
Chinese nationalists tried smuggling a
deadly fungus into the US that can
destroy crops and poison food.
Prosecutors say Zongyonglu flew it into
Detroit for his girlfriend Yaning Jean,
who works at a University of Michigan
lab not cleared for biohazards. The
fungus Ferium gurmanium, better you than
me, man. Devastates wheat, corn, and
rice. causes vomiting and liver damage
and is labeled a potential Argo
terrorism weapon. Yeah, agot terrorism.
Agro terrorism. That's crazy. I didn't
even know that was a thing. It's like
nightmare unlocked, too. Yeah, it
triggers billion and crop losses yearly.
I didn't even I thought it was just dead
crops. I didn't know about the vomiting
and liver damage and things like that.
So, um the girlfriend's research was
funded by China and she is a member of
the Communist Party. Um let's go. They
got the boyfriend who flew in got
deported and Yan who w is facing
conspiracy, smuggling, visa fraud and
lying to officials. Um the US attorney
Jerome Gorgan Jr. called it a major
national security threat. Um yeah, this
seems like an act of aggression. Um I
don't know if he's just some lone actor
by himself, but yeah, that's the thing.
Like I want to be really careful with
this. And um man, boys and girls, can we
please remember that if you've got
somebody from China that's in the CCP
and they're sent here as a spy and it
gets proven in a court of law and all of
that, uh that's bad. And China is your
enemy in that scenario. Being Chinese
does not make you the enemy. Just the
same as Israel is not the same as being
Jewish. And so some of you being Jewish
does not make them your enemy. even if
you don't like what Israel is doing. I
can't believe that I have to say that
PSA, but I feel like I absolutely have
to say that PSA. So, mad love to all of
uh the Chinese people here in America.
Love, love, love each and every one of
you. Um people doing dirty [ __ ] can [ __ ]
right off. And uh look, the Chinese
right now are hopefully merely a rival.
uh and we can find a path to um
competing in a way that isn't dirtier
than normal in international affairs
since there's plenty of spying that's
always going to happen and espionage is
real and people do horrible [ __ ] Um,
but so anyway, I want all the facts of
this to come out before I get too
hysterical. But if this really is funded
by the CCP, obviously that's incredibly
bad. And bioteterrorism is a major
threat. And so that freaks me out. And
when you start talking about something
that could destroy crops, woo, because I
understand how AI is going to make this
part of the new Battlefront, like this
really feels like a shot across the bow.
Again, I don't know. And maybe we'll
find that oh my god, like she just
really wanted to research this and was
[ __ ] as dumb as the day is long.
That's entirely possible. And given the
guys will do anything for vagina, it is
entirely possible that this guy just
loves his girlfriend. grab that that
dangerous sample from my lab for me.
Lord knows I would much fingers crossed
I would much rather it be that. But um
we'll we'll let it play out in the
fullness of time. But if this is sort of
that worst case scenario of one of the
gazillion ways that um our adversary can
touch us, that's scary. But I will just
remind everybody, we got people over in
China trying to touch them. So don't be
holier than thou. Be paranoid. Keep your
guard up. Don't overindex and for the
love of God, don't confuse the CCP
trying to do something with someone who
happens to be Chinese. Um, you were
using deepseat this weekend or
something. I feel like this is a maj
measurable difference in your China tone
from normal. So, it's like that's
interesting. So, I
one I want to be very careful as I work
on the deep dives I find my which by the
way the new one's coming out on Monday.
Make sure you check it out. that's going
to be about the creature from Jackal
Island. Um, I find myself realizing how
quickly you can ratchet things up and
that to make it interesting to listen
to, you can nudge your words in a
direction. And I remind myself that
we're always spinning and being spun at
all times. And so I want to be careful
that the words I say will shape my own
world view, even if unintentionally. And
so you become what you repeat. And so
I'm trying to be very thoughtful about I
really do want China to be the rival
that brings out the best in America. I
don't want them to be the adversary that
we go to war with. And given how
Thusidity's trap is so real um that we
have to be paranoid and we have to be
careful. And I know there are going to
be days where I'm just in that zone and
I'm like [ __ ] really annoyed about
something and pissed and want everybody
to wake up and I'm going to be leaning
heavy on like this is where it goes and
this is how it ends. Um but at the same
time I want to remind myself and
everybody else to be thoughtful,
clear-headed and stick with the facts.
Stick with the facts we shall. Um Meta
is buying a nuclear plant. Well, kind
of. They have gotten to an agreement
with Constellation Energy, one of the
biggest uh power providers in the US,
for a 20-year nuclear energy deal. From
my perspective, Meta is doing this so
they don't have to pay for the
infrastructure, similar to Microsoft,
who just bought the island, and now they
have to build it up. The 20-year
agreement is set