Kind: captions
Language: en
The US signs a critical minerals deal
with Ukraine. The US economy is
officially shrinking. Colombia student
and activist Madawi is released on bond.
Sam Alman continues to push for proof of
humanity as AI threatens to fake the
world at every turn. And RFK has a
gotcha on the soda industry as they
lobby for SNAP benefits. Drew, let's
dive right in. The US is not playing
around when it comes to pushing Russia
to the table. Yeah, Russia came back
with their terms to end the war. It was
a basically Putin's wish list and now
the US just signs a minerals deal with
Ukraine. So I think they're starting to
apply a little bit more pressure to get
to that peace deal. Yeah, I'll be
interested to see how much Trump's
rhetoric changes. He started throwing
little hints that he's getting
frustrated with Putin. But I have to
admit like I am pretty impressed uh not
getting what he wants on the Russia side
for them to come because we went through
this in our last episode. The list of
things that Putin put on the table
starts with a non-starter from where I'm
sitting, which is that the Ukraine would
have to demilitarize. Uh, which is
nonsensical when you've got an invading
army literally inside your country. Uh,
and then they're saying, "We'll stop,
but only if you demilitarize to me is
the same as saying as soon as Trump is
out of office, we're going to be right
back here, but we'll be in a far better
position because you won't have any
ability to defend yourself." Exactly.
Uh, and so if you've got Trump looking
at that, and I am admittedly mind
readading, I haven't heard him say
exactly this, but I've heard him say
enough things that this feels pretty
comfortable that, okay, cool. If you
guys aren't going to come to the b the
table with a serious offer, then we're
going to move over here and we're going
to negotiate this deal that we've been
talking about forever.
Um, and as somebody who is very paranoid
about us needing to break away from
China in terms of our reliance on them
supplying basically everything, having a
minerals deal uh with Ukraine. I'm very
happy about that. Now, the problem
remains that we still all of the
refinement essentially it's like 95% is
done in China. So, we're going to have
to find some long-term play there. But,
he really does seem to be making moves
to shore things up. Whether he'll be
able to do it in time is a totally
different question because the US
economy is an ice cream
cone that is threatening to melt in the
sun. I don't want to be that hardcore
about it, but the reality is we're on a
timeline that there is going to be
disruption. Clearly, we're already
starting to see it. And if he isn't able
to get some of these other trade deals
across the board in the near term, I
think people are going to pretty rapidly
lose faith. So, we'll see. We'll see if
he can get it done in time. Yeah. The
deal is interesting and includes a $50
million military ad package. This is us
supplying weapons and resources for the
military of Ukraine. We also are doing a
joint reinvestment fund that is going to
invest in the reconstruction and the
building up of Ukraine. And this is only
off of the profits. This is not a debt
obligation or anything onto Ukraine.
That was one of the sticky points that
one of the earlier deals fell through
on. But one interesting thing I want to
kind of circle and highlight is that
this doesn't have a formal security
guarantee. So although we are in deals
with them, this doesn't mean that we are
now militarily contractually obligated
to defend them or anything like that.
However, it does kind of steam if I'm
getting my resources from you and I'm
offering to rebuild, I do have kind of a
shared interest, but just nothing is in
black and white. I think that's kind of
a gray area. Would you call that like a
win for Ukraine or that? Well, honestly,
yes, it's a win in terms of you've got
the US that's been signaling very
clearly that they're going to pull back.
If they pull back, that puts Russia in a
much better position. Your only ally
remaining is Europe. I think there are a
lot of credible voices that are saying
if they have to rely if Ukraine has to
rely on Europe
exclusively, probably not going to go
well for them. Especially, you pointed
this out in the last episode. It's like
it's going to take them a while to spin
up uh their ability to really help with
weapons and defense. Even though they
are increasing the amount that they're
spending, how long is that going to take
to manifest as actual on the battlefield
um results? That remains to be seen. So
for Zalinski and Ukraine to be coaxing
the US back into their um onto their
side is certainly a win, but when you're
talking about $50 million, that is
absolutely tiny. Um, there was no
universe in which the US was going to
agree to security guarantees during an
active conflict because that's the same
as saying that we're going to join uh an
ongoing war. Mhm. Trump made it very
clear months ago that that just wasn't
on the table. Not even something that he
would contemplate. Uh so I don't think
that was ever going to happen. I think
Zillinsky is smart enough to know that
evidenced by him moving forward with
this deal. uh he isn't going to um go
for that or he understands that Trump
isn't going to go for that. But when you
look at what he was pushing back on, not
wanting this to be a debt obligation,
he's basically saying, "I don't want
Ukraine to be a rump state for the US
anymore than I want it to be a rum state
for Russia. So, we're not going to uh
let you
take profit from the mineral revenue
streams that we already have. and we're
not going to let this be turned into a
debt obligation that we have to the US,
which obviously would have been far
better for the US, but would have been
terrible for them. And so when Trump is
talking about even the $50 million, my
understanding is that it that's coming
out of the profits from anything in the
future. So I don't from what I've come
across, it isn't clear whether that's
saying it's coming from the profits that
will generate or it's coming from the
profits that they'll generate. But I
would assume it's coming from the
profits that Ukraine will generate from
the deal of these new things moving
forward. So, we'll see. There's a lot of
detail still to come on this. Uh, but
it's an encouraging sign that Trump
isn't hesitant to be very aggressive in
his push back, like real tangible push
back against Russia. Yeah. And it's good
that US and Ukraine do are now working
together, signing something. Um,
hopefully that signals the end to this
war. Um, I think it's way too early to
say that, but certainly it's putting
Ukraine in a much better position
because Ukraine has to have some
leverage. They don't have the leverage
from a military perspective. Nobody is
eager to put boots on the ground. So,
it's not like they're suddenly going to
have this reinforcement of troops. Um,
but they've got to be able to point to
something. And US was signaling so hard
that they were willing to walk away from
all of this. And it's one of those
where I'm not a big fan of I'm not a fan
of populist moments. I'm not a fan of
strong man
rhetoric. But especially when I check my
feelings against China, I realize you
have to draw lines. You have to do some
of this stuff. And so even though
admittedly it does feel a little bit
icky to say, "Nah, we'll let you hang in
the wind Ukraine." Even though you got
you were a sovereign nation that was
invaded by another nation. We've talked
before about did the US push this with
moving of NATO, NATO, NATO, but
nonetheless, Russia invaded a sovereign
nation and
Trump was clearly willing to walk away.
I did not like the way that that made me
feel. But like at some point, you do
have to say, uh, this has got to be a
deal that makes sense for us.
And he's got to show that he's also
willing to be as dismissive, maybe isn't
the right word, but it feels
directionally correct against Russia.
Fine, you're not going to come to the
table. [ __ ] you. Like, we'll do
something with these guys and then we're
going to because we have a conjoined
financial
interest, we're going to make sure that
these mineral rights are protected. And
if I'm aware of what I think is a very
um logical and realistic narrative that
dear Putin, I am going to move away from
China. Dear Putin, I'm going to use you
are Ukraine. You had your shot. You took
a pass. So cool. Now I've got my deal
with Ukraine. Now, I care a lot about
making sure that I continue to have the
unfettered access to this deal that I'm
going to need to separate myself from uh
China. So, if I'm Putin and I'm going,
okay, Trump's unpredictable and he's got
very um big incentives to actually make
a deal like this with one of us, this
either becomes a negotiating thing where
it's like, okay, I'm Putin. I don't want
you to do the deal with Ukraine, so I'm
going to come in and say, hey, look, do
the deal with me. I'm going to give you
way better um a way better deal. I'm the
far bigger country. I've got far more
resources than Ukraine. And then if
Trump is uh going to negotiate in the
way that I would want him to at that
point, he says, "Cool. I'm happy to do
the deal with you. I'm happy to whatever
backout is um plausible because it's my
understanding that they've actually
signed the deal. But whatever backout
I'm sure he has, I'll do. But not if
you're going to be invading these guys."
And so you're again back at the
negotiating table and there's some real
leverage. And this is the whole thing we
were talking about in the last episode.
Do you judge Trump's 100 days? Do you
lock in a score and say he's doing well
or doing poorly? I think it's too early
to tell. Uh it is entirely possible that
this is just a catastrophic failure. But
it's also possible you start seeing more
stuff like this where he's actually able
to leverage his uh I'll use the word
erratic his erratic nature with that
creating opportunities like this and if
we can get them across the finish line
then uh we'll end up looking back on
this time I think very differently than
if it's everybody just scatters in the
way that when I look at Canada I'm like
they are literally running away from us
potentially I don't want to overstate
where we're at but potentially into the
arms of a deal with China with Europe
rather than with the US which is exactly
what
uh people should have in mind when they
think about the world order being
upended.
Yeah, especially when our allies walk
away from the table. We'll monitor it
closely. Um the first quarter numbers
for 2025 of the GDP came in and
America's economy goes into the reverse.
We dropped.3 in the first in the first
quarter. That's slower from the 2.4 4
rise we experienced in Q4 of 2024 and
much lower than the point8 that
economists projected. I'm going to read
this paragraph because it was tricky and
it got me tripped up in in the prep, but
the economy's decline in the beginning
of the year was driven by a wider trade
deficit, a result of America's
frontunning purchases to beat Trump's
tariffs and cutbacks in government
spending. According to a release,
endpoints skyrocketed from negative 1.9%
in the fourth quarter to 41.3% in the
first three months of the year.
Meanwhile, exports registered a 1.8%
rate. I like this graph because it makes
it a lot simpler for me. Um, it seems
that when Trump announced tariffs, a lot
of businesses and companies went to
frontload their purchases to try to
avoid it as much as possible, thereby
causing our GDP to kind of upside down.
I didn't realize this, but our GDP is
actually calculated by our exports minus
our imports. So when our imports sharply
rise, it will then drag the GDP down,
which is a bit ironic that I thought
when that would be like a growth thing,
but GDP is a tricky calculation. Given
the signaling that Trump was doing on
the tariffs, people knew that they had
to race to get all of this stuff in. Uh
so people were importing as much as they
could before the tariffs took uh effect.
So all of these numbers are very
temporary. It'll be very interesting to
see what happens in the long term in
terms of how all of this ends up
settling out. We're obviously not going
to continue to see these kind of insane
increases in importing. In fact, that
number is almost certainly going to
plummet. This is the very thing that
people are afraid of with us going into
a trade war with China is that all these
things that we've been uh bringing into
the country, we're not going to be
bringing in. That's going to have a
massive knock-on effect on all of these
small momand- popop shop um companies
that are like my entire business model
is importing something um cheaply from
China, spinning up an Etsy store or an
Amazon store or whatever and that's just
going to stop and these are not going to
be companies that are going to be able
to weather that storm. And so what is
the ultimate knock-on effect of all of
this remains to be seen but this is the
game of chicken. It is about to get very
real. If we think that we've already
experienced the pain and suffering from
the trade war, we're really at the first
edge. We're at the the edge of sentiment
right now. What people are responding to
is I think this is going to be bad. What
they're about to be responding to is
holy be Jesus, this is actually bad. And
these companies are going out of
business because they, you know, unlike
an Apple that can be like, okay, listen,
we've got $46 trillion in uh reserves.
We're going to be just fine. That's a
madeup number, but we're going to be
fine. But the mom and pop shops are not
going to be fine.
And obviously, the final analysis of all
of this is going to be, okay, this is a
point of leverage. How much pain can we
endure? How much pain can China endure?
And what does that look like culturally?
So, we know we have a democratic process
by which we can punish Trump back as
voters. we can punish the entire um
Republican party, but in China that
doesn't happen. And so they can really
muscle through this in a way that the US
is not going to be able
to. And so how does that play out? Does
it give China what it needs to go and
build allies with other countries to
find a way around the US? They're
already pushing for higher domestic
consumption inside of China. So
basically, hey, do your duty. It's
probably not worded like this, but
basically do your duty. Buy from these
Chinese companies. Also, we'll help our
uh manufacturing base pay their
employees like a minimum living wage so
they can get to the other side of this
when there's really nothing for them to
manufacture, but we don't want them to
lose their employees because it's very
hard to train them, retain them. And so
we, the government, will step in, make
sure that we get to the other side of
this. Whereas in the US, uh, that's not
how it's going to play out. A bunch of
those companies are just going to go out
of business. It is what it is. It will
hit us the way that it hits us. And you
hope if you're Trump, you hope that
people don't get so furious that they're
like, "Yeah, you're toast." And that
there's no way for him to recover from
this, especially with the promises that
he's made that, hey, we don't care so
much about Wall Street, but we really
care about Main Street. But it starts to
feel like Main Street is the one that
takes the baseball bat to the face if
you've got all these small companies
that are closing. So that's where the
game ends up playing out. Trust me when
I say that China is not going to walk
away from this unscathed, but will they
be able to essentially force their
country to deal with it in a way that
the US can't? But the thing that I
really want to know is how does the
world perceive them? Because right now,
China from the outside seems the more
stately. They're being pretty quiet.
Xihinping isn't running around beating
his chest. And you've got Trump calling
Canada the 51st state, which makes them
feel some kind of way. So much so that
it looked like they were about to have a
conservative victory. And instead, the
Liberals win. And so if you start, this
is one where I don't know in the long
run who's going to end up being right.
You've got Bessant going. We have um 18
major trading partners, China being one
of them. Set China aside. All of the
other 17 are here. They're negotiating.
They're coming with deals that we
consider good. We're going to have no
problem. We're going to get all 17 of
these guys lined up. Or I look at Canada
and Canada's like, "What?" Like, we are
saying as loud and clearly as we can,
[ __ ] you. like no, we're not going to
play this game and uh we're gonna build
a trading world in which we're not
reliant on the US. Mark Carney in his
acceptance speech said the days of us
moving in lock step with the US are
over. That's a paraphrase, but it's like
we we are looking for trading partners
other than the US. That's who's now
running Canada.
Uh, we [ __ ] around and found out,
didn't we? We don't know yet. That's the
thing. I want to be very clear. Like, I
don't know if I don't know how it's
going to play out. I can articulate what
I think Trump is doing based largely on
the things that he's saying out loud.
So, it's not like I'm doing a whole
bunch of mind readading, but it's just a
question of in the final analysis, how
does it work out? Because every punch
you throw, people counter punch. And so
you can create rhetoric around this is
how this is going to play out, but that
it's like uh if you've ever seen fake
martial arts, forgive me iikido for
saying this, but I trained in iikido for
like a year. And in the iikido class, I
really felt like I was learning
something. Like I could throw people and
do all this crazy stuff. And then I was
like to a friend, I was like, "Hey, let
me show you the stuff I'm learning." And
there was like this wrist lock. and I
grabbed his wrist and instead of him
flipping over and falling like all the
students in the class, he was just
pulled his hand back and I was like,
"Wait, what?" And so then I was like,
"Hold on, this doesn't work as well as I
thought it did." This is all premma
before the world was just like, "Put two
people in a cage and let's find out."
Uh, and that's when I realized, oh, your
partner in all of this, they're going to
act unpredictably and so you've got to
be ready for all the different moves.
And right now, because we're always
being spun at all times, the US, China,
all spin, Canada, all spin all the time,
it's hard to know where this is going to
settle out. So anyway, it really does at
times feel like the highest stakes
reality show ever.
And it's it's only getting better. We're
just getting started. Season one.
Actually, technically this is season
two, but woo, season two is a lot
spicier than season one. Oh, man. Uh, in
New York news, uh, Columbia University
student Madawi was released from a
detention center this, uh, this past
week. He was locked up for his Palestine
activism. This is another one of the
college students that was detained over
the last weeks from the Trump
administration. Um, he was a national
permanent legal resident since 2014. He
missed the departing flight that would
have took him to the detention center in
Louisiana by 8 minutes and that's how he
claims he was able to get free. So these
was one of those rat put him all
together, ship him out, but apparently
he missed his flight so he was able to
get out. Um that's interesting. Yeah.
Well, it'll be fun to find out if uh
that was intentional given that we have
a world where judges are um helping
escort people out the back door. It's
interesting, man. It's interesting. I am
a little conflicted on how I feel about
Okay, listen. Uh let me be very clear
with myself if nobody else. Uh I love
due process. Mhm. The Supreme Court has
already ruled on that. And even though I
think that there is a legitimate
grievance that any administration would
have to say the amount of people that we
now have to process will overwhelm the
system and you do have to face that
reality.
However, we trust the Supreme Court to
rule in this, or at least I do. I'm a
big believer in the three branches of
government. And so, they've said very
clearly, hey, uh, not worried about the
system overwhelm at all. You are going
to give these people due process. Cool.
Is from where I'm sitting, that's loud
and clear from the rulings that they
have put forward. Uh, and so without
defending the person that is allow that
helped escort what appears to be a
pretty gnarly criminal out the back
door, I I don't know enough about the
the claim of missing the flight by 8
minutes to know if just natural things
happen and whatever whatever. But, uh,
we the Supreme Court's been very clear.
These people deserve
due
process. And I do think to the point
there, this is a complicated immigration
issue because I don't necessarily think
that former gang members, alleged gang
members are in the same category as
university protesters, um people who are
fighting for Palestinian human rights
isn't the same as, you know, supporting
Hamas. So there is a a level of gray
between all of these immigration cases.
Let's just do it at the level of thought
experiment so we don't derail into But
that's not what happened. If he's pro-
Hamas, I for one do not want that person
to have a green card because I think
culture matters. I think you have to
defend your culture. Uh if a citizen is
doing it, yep, cool. It is what it is.
Freedom of speech. Do your thing. Uh now
that's I'm saying that as somebody who
has a green card holding wife. So, I
understand that this is a policy that
could come back to bite me in the ass
should my wife uh clap back at the US in
a way that uh from a cultural
perspective we don't want to see. So,
you do need to protect your culture. But
to your point, if this is somebody that
is simply saying,
uh, we need to stand up for human
rights. I believe the way that the US
and Israel, I mean, obviously the real
beef is Israel, but a lot of people will
put the two together.
Um, this is a grotesque injustice and
somebody needs to stand up and speak
about
it. Those to me are very different
things. one is a known terrorist
organization and showing support for
them for me uh is not the kind of person
that I want to invite into the country
if on the other hand this is somebody
that is standing up for um human rights
that to me is perfectly in line with
American values. Yay cool. Uh but that
is going to be a debate that has to
happen in public where we have to decide
like what are we doing here? Is there a
difference between a green card holder
and a citizen? Yes or no? That'll be
debated. I've put forward my ideas, but
I would want them to be debated. This is
not something where I want people to
just be like, "Well, he said so." Um,
and then is there a difference between
standing up for human rights and
standing up for a terrorist
organization? And look there, I think
that that is a worthy debate when you
look at um
the the old school ACLU defending Nazis
right to march through a neighborhood of
concentration camp survivors, which I
was totally for.
Um versus going to bat for Hamas. To me,
that's a question of citizen versus
non-citizen.
um and the need to protect your cultural
value set, but it's such a different
moment. So, I'm saying all of that on
the back of mass immigration. I'm saying
that on the back of watching Europe and
what's happening over there. Uh and so,
it's one where it feels like a debate
that's worthy to be had. And PS, by the
way, I am very open to as this debate
happens, I look at it and go, "Yeah, I
you really do just have to let whatever
debate, anybody, it's not my take now,
but I I want to see this debate happen
with the brightest minds around. I I
think that that's going to be a really
important inflection point for us moving
forward." Yeah. And that conflict has no
signs of dying down. So, I think this is
just getting started. We'll get back to
the show in a moment, but first let's
talk about one of the most valuable
advantages in content creation. Speed.
The faster you go from idea to edit, the
more content you can win with. Opus Clip
makes that instant. If you're building a
brand or running a business, you already
know content is not optional and you
need a system. And for a lot of
creators, that system breaks at the
editing stage. Opus Clips AI powered
editor gives you prolevel video output
without the bottlenecks, budget, or
burnout. You can add branded intros,
generate AI B-roll with one click, tweak
captions, layout, voice over, all
without the tech overwhelm or a full
production team. It's drag and drop
simple, but powerful enough to keep your
brand sharp across every platform. No
more bottlenecks, just faster, better
content. If you're ready to go from idea
to upload without slowing down, go to
the link in our show notes and give it a
try for free right now. And now, let's
get back to the show. In world tech
news, Tools for Humanity, a startup
co-founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Alman, just
released a mobile verification device
that uses retina scanners to verify
you're a human. How the tech works is
that this is it scans your eyeball and
gives you a unique identifier on the
blockchain so that way it can verify
transactions. Their whole mission is
that in the future they think that it's
going to be impossible to distinguish
between a human and an AI agent. So this
is the way to do it. What do you think
about the eyeball scanning verification
tool? Uh okay. Um it is absolutely
critical that you be able to prove
humanity using the blockchain to do it
makes all the sense in the world. Uh
whether scanning your retina is the
right play, I will let security experts
who have thought through that more than
me um come and put the big stamp of like
this is the way or this is not the way.
But Drew, AI is absolutely going to
flood for sure the internet. It it the
whole dead internet theory is that the
vast majority of content will be created
by AI for
AI that seems so self-evidently
true. AI can already create things that
will trick you at a glance. So, I'm
ashamed to admit and to be honest, I
haven't even uh looked deeply enough to
know that my reversal is correct, but
I'm
99.999999% sure that it is given just
the absurdity of it. But I saw a quick
video of people in Chicago, homeless
people putting tents on top of buses.
And so there's an algorithm in my brain
that was like, "Oh, in uh developing
nations, you'll see a lot of people
traveling on trains on the top." So my
brain was like plausible check. Uh
building tents struck me as ridiculous.
So like as I thought more about it
later, I was like there's no way like
the amount that you'd have to wait it
down, the odds that you get hit by a
bridge, things like that. I was like,
"Nah, this just it's can't be true." And
so I went back and looked at it and I
was like, "Man, you're looking at it
close." You're like, "No, I I just it's
got to be AI." The amount of time that I
had to spend on that, I was like, "Uh,
the amount it's only going to get
better, first of all, and then there's
going to be article after article after
article that's going to be written by AI
that's going to say, no, it is true."
And so when I go to research, is this
real? Is this not real? I'll be met with
a wall of, "Yeah, this is real. This is
really happening." And so it'll be
visually indistinguishable. There'll be
fake articles backing up that it's real.
And they'll probably get cleared up over
time. But for a minute, people are going
to be like, "No, it's real." And then
some percentage of people won't be able
to update their mental model that, oh,
that got proven false. Uh, and then also
there is something because that image is
seared in my brain.
there is something happening to my
subconscious that says a tent on top of
a bus is a plausible thing. And so we
really we we re we we have to be very
thoughtful about what are the mechanisms
by which we map things as real or not.
And given that humans will rapidly AI
versions of humans will rapidly become
indistinguishable from actual humans,
you're you're going to need something.
The blockchain certainly seems like the
right answer to be able to prove
humanity. Without that, oh my god, it is
going to be a tsunami of manipulation
that will be impossible to escape. In
health news, uh RFK shared a burn that
he experienced with the uh soda. This is
hilarious. Secretary Rollins had the
soda industry come and knock on her door
very much, very loudly, and they said to
her, "Well, the SNAP program is not
supposed to be about nutrition." She
pointed out to them that there is no
nutrition in a soda. And she they said,
"Well, it's not supposed to be about
nutrition." And she said to them, "The
name of the program is supplemental
nutrition. It is about nutrition.
That's crazy. Yeah, there he's still
gaining push back for the ban on sugary
and soda products on SNAP, but to his
point, SNAP's whole point is for
nutritional insurance. Yeah. I mean,
it's okay. So, that's certainly why it
exists, but that is not the region of
the brain that it occupies in people's
minds. Drew, we uh we are living in such
a weird time. I actually So, uh I think
you know this about me, but I listen to
books while I sleep. Not because I think
that I'm absorbing it. I'm not. It's
because I've learned that when I wake
up, I'll be awake for hours unless I
have something that immediately captures
my mind again and isn't the worries of
the day and all that. And so then I'll
fall back asleep in say 2 minutes.
Hugely effective in my life. I'm not
saying I recommend it to people because
I am worried about constantly having
headphones on. Uh but highly effective
to altering my sleep patterns.
There was a book called The Red Famine
that I couldn't read at night because it
talks about the famine in the Ukraine in
like the 20s. It was just so
devastating. Had to stop that. So, I'm
reading a new book about China and I've
had to stop reading it because it so
like triggers this area in my brain
about like this moment and what's
happening.
And once you realize that the way that
somebody maps something in their mind
equates to the physiological emotional
reaction that they have to that subject,
you get a lot closer to understanding
the kind of reaction that you're getting
to snap because it's the the emotional
trigger in the brain isn't, oh, thank
God RFK is doing something to make my
kid healthier. It's that's inhumane.
Why? Why should wealthy people be able
to drink soda, but a poor person who
relies on Snap can't? That That's
disgusting. That's so grotesque. And so
the emotional reaction to this is
knowable. It it doesn't matter how much
he bangs on the drum about they're going
to be able to live longer and this is
going to be better. The mapping that
people have in a modern context is
everyone should have everything. And
this goes back to the idea uh some
people just need to be we all need to be
chased by a line. Let me not make it
about some people. We all need
adversity. We all need difficulty. It
has a way of really sobering people up
really fast because you suddenly
realize, for instance, the government
doesn't make money. The government takes
money from the people who make money.
You can't redistribute wealth that
wasn't first generated. Well, what is
wealth? Wealth is the ability to have
inputs into a system that cost less than
the value of the outputs that come out
of the system. That is so hard, Drew.
But when you've been living uh in a
world where certainly in a US context
for the last 80 years, like on our soil,
there's just been no problems. It's been
growth. It's been uh we were talking
about this previously. Uh you've got
people on the streets begging for money
with iPhones. uh not a madeup story, a
real story. And so we're just living in
a time of plenty and it begins to
distort people's psychology. And that
was the very thing in the book about
China that was keeping me awake was
uhoh, we're not going to be able to
reverse this. And the book was talking
about how China ended up with the 100
years of humiliation.
And there was a guy in China, forget his
name, forgive me, who was like beating
the drum at like the height of China's
success. And it was like, yo, we've got
to like knuckle down. We've got to like
work hard. We've got to be
disciplined. Nobody listened. And so
they ended up losing a war to Japan.
Like just a whole raft of bad things
happened. And then it's a hundred years
of bad things. It's not like you go into
a 6 or
sevenyear recession. It's not even like
you go into a 10 or 11 year depression.
Go into a hundred years of humiliation.
And so I was just like, uhoh, I feel a
lot of those very similar things
happening here in the US where things
have been so good for so long that even
something
like don't allow soda to be the thing
that people are spending their SNAP
dollars on. Make it so that those SNAP
dollars are being spent on things that
are better for their health, better for
their longevity, uh will be better for
their cognition. I mean just in every
way, shape, and form, especially for
kids, it's better for them. People still
don't want it because their brain is not
mapped to survival, the need to fight
that this is going to be hard, that we
have to be disciplined. It's mapped to
um these things just happen. That
prosperity is a fundamental law of
nature. Like what do you mean that we
have to earn this or we have to work for
it? And so,
um, it literally when I woke up in the
middle of the night, my blood pressure
spiked. I'm not kidding. Uh, my heart
started racing and I was like, whoa, I
have to stop listening to this book
because I'm really freaked out that the
US has such a weird mental map of what
is happening right now that the decline
is unavoidable.
It's the unavoidability of it, Drew,
that scares the life out of me. And I
don't have kids. You have kids. So, it's
like, yo, I don't know, man. Uh, I
really, really So, the thing that
allowed me to fall back asleep is one,
changing the book. And then two, sitting
there going, okay, okay, I've got a
platform. Let me just do my very weird
perhaps blend of mindset and world
affairs. I don't know this is going to
work, Drew, but it's what allowed me to
fall back asleep.
I'm going to need you to start
whispering that to my ear cuz I'm going
to be up for a little bit after that.
That's all I got. Yeah. All right, boys
and girls. If you haven't already, be
sure to subscribe. And until next time,
my friends, be legendary. If you like
this conversation, check out this
episode to learn more. The first 100
days of Trump 2 are in the books. Russia
offers their terms for ending the war.
Dalio says there's no stopping the
coming change in world order. Now, China
continues to insist they can endure more
economic pain than us. Elon points out
China