Kind: captions
Language: en
The stock market is up but remains
unsteady. China's economy might be in
more danger than they're letting on. AI
coding gets a big upgrade. Google warns
regulators that antitrust breakup will
weaken their ability to compete against
China in the AI arms race. Supreme Court
rules today on LGBTQ plus and the first
amendment. Tesla earnings report also
drops today and people are mad. An RFK
knocks food dye out of the US food
supply. Drew, BTC, gold, and the Dow are
up, but the Dow's also on track for its
worst April since the Great Depression.
So, I hope that you're not checking your
portfolio very often on that. No, no, I
am. I'm a holder. I'm a holder. At least
when it comes to the major indexes. Um,
okay. Dow up about 3%. NASDAQ, S&P at
the time of this recording, all average
about 3%. To your point though, we're
getting a lot of news that they've been
the lowest since the Great Depression,
biggest swing since a recession, a lot
of these different attributes for inday
movement. So, in one day, they dropped
5%, in one day they're up 5%. But in the
grand scheme of things, we're about flat
from year-over-year. So, yes, but I have
to say that my favorite stat about the
stock market right now is that it has 11
times had a drop of more than a thousand
points in a single day. And four of them
have been in April or or have been since
Trump came into office. I forget which
is true, but definitely I think since uh
his freedom day, liberation day,
whatever it was. Uh so it's had an
effect, Drew, when you've got a 100 plus
years where you don't see those kind of
movements and all of a sudden in uh a
30-day period, you get four of your most
volatile days ever. So, you can
certainly speak to the volatility. Now,
traders will have you believe that
volatility is a some traders, I should
be very clear, uh will have you believe
that volatility is a good thing. You
certainly see a lot of love for the
volatility in BTC from our man Michael
Sailor who has been trending a lot
recently as he just continues to gobble
up BTC. Uh speaking of which, BTC broke
90 again and is up 4% today. So that's a
welcome sign to a lot of investors. BTC
went as low as 60 a couple weeks ago. So
it being 90 is a healthy indicator. But
to me, is this like a recession hedge?
Cuz gold is also hitting a new high. So
are people just taking it out of the
stock market and kind of parking it?
What's your read of like the sentiment
or where this money is moving? Well, the
sentiment is definitely people are
uncertain. There is so much uncertainty
going on right now and to overlook that
I think would be a mistake. I think the
uncertainty is rightfully um being read
from Trump's what certainly to the
outside world is erratic behavior.
Whether you believe in 40 chess or
tessrack chess or whatever you want to
call it, it is functionally erratic uh
in that people are unable to predict
what he's going to do next. Uh also I
think it would be unwise to think that
we understand how the USChina dynamic is
going to play out. I think that there is
a wild amount of uncertainty in that. Uh
and so we're all going to have to go
through the ups and downs here. I think
that we'll um start to see some of this
level out a little bit as people a grow
used to the hokeyp pokey tariffs and as
they see other countries either uh
actually get on board or this starts
dragging out to the point where people
like yeah I don't buy it I don't think
anything's going to happen uh you'll at
least even if we go down you'll at least
see some uh sense of I can predict the
outcome return back to the market and
predictable we're actually going to look
at this as we look closer at China's
economy
One of the notes that they make in the
video that we're going to show is that
it's okay to be down. You just want
predictable. You want to know like where
are we going from here? And when people
are wildly uncertain, they pull back.
And the pulling back can be more
problematic than a steady state like
okay, at least we know where we're at.
Now, that has its limits. You can drop
so far that it's just all bad all the
time. Um, but I think that we will see a
little bit of that stability return, but
you're not going to get the big
stability until we find out what is
actually going on with China. I think
that is a gigantic question mark that
we're going to feature a lot today. I
think it's um it's important to remember
how much spin is out there, and I'll be
sure to push on that even more when we
talk about it. But, um, it this is not a
guaranteed US victory, but it certainly
isn't a guaranteed China victory either.
And uh when you've got two the the two
biggest economies playing a game of
chicken, it's going to make people feel
um a lot of question marks. So we've got
to get to the other side of that. Now
the fact that gold is going up, I think
is that is the thing that makes the most
sense to me when you look at this that
gold is where you go in times of
uncertainty. And so maximum uncertainty,
we see gold going up. there for a while
it was unclear as to whether Bitcoin was
also going to go up and I heard somebody
put a thesis that's pretty interesting
that uh Bitcoin will lag gold but go
bigger so we'll see if that ends up
being true gold is having a moment right
now uh
and right now as of the time that we're
recording this Bitcoin is really on a
tear but will it remain on that tear I
don't know so we're a long way from
all-time highs and I believe that gold
is at an all-time high yeah gold is at
an all-time high peak for sure yeah So,
uh, I don't, while optimistic people
will tell you that BTC is going to do
the exact same thing, I don't know that
we have reason to believe that. Uh, so
we'll see. But I've been surprised at
how correlated Bitcoin had been until
today's move with the stock market. As
the stock market goes down, Bitcoin goes
down. Uh, as the stock market goes up,
Bitcoin goes up. So, that to me says
that what people are leaning on is the
volatility of it. They they're treating
it as a risk asset. They're not treating
it as the inflation hedge that I'm
personally treating it as. But that's
also why you hear me wanting for the day
when Bitcoin will be a boring asset like
gold where you're not seeing these huge
volatile moves. I get that that's not
popular, but for me, I want a place that
I can go to protect myself from
inflation. I don't need another risk-on
asset. Um, so I we'll see. I I get that
that has to do with my unique financial
position and does not represent why I'm
sure a lot of people love Bitcoin, but
nonetheless is true for me. You brought
it up earlier about us doing a deep dive
in the Chinese economy. This is a video
from the China Observer, which gives us
the other side of this tariff war on the
backs of news we heard that China is
telling other countries not to do trade
deals with the US. This kind of uncovers
what China is trying to block and how
these long-term tariffs can impact their
economy. Before you hit play, it is very
important that everybody understand one
that every word out of anybody's mouth,
mine included, is framed. Now, it may be
framed as accurately as the person is
able to get it, but everybody has a
frame of reference and they're going to
show you the world through that frame of
reference. So, please understand that
intentionally or not, this is spin. Uh,
and also because this fits my narrative
so well, I'm skeptical, but I will admit
this does a very good job of
outlining the risks on China's side of
being in a protracted trade war with the
US. Now, this is very much this feels
like it's coming from a um US lens more
than this is how people in China would
see this moment. So, with all of that on
the table, take a look. Every day I wake
up to an empty assembly line, an empty
workshop, and rusty machines. By the end
of the day, we barely managed to make a
few pairs of shoes. Even the quality
checks are finishing early. We can't
even cut a few pieces of fabric with the
mold every day. and there's a mountain
of unsold stock piling up. So, we've
talked about this before, but it's
incredibly important for people to
understand that the US economy, uh, not
only are we either first or second in
GDP, depending on who you ask and how
they count it, but it's us in China.
We're at the tippy top. And the fact
that some people can credibly say that
China's bigger, and some people credibly
say the US is bigger, tells you that
we're peers roughly. Mhm.
Uh the important thing though is that
the way that we account for our GDP is
that we buy a lot of stuff. The way that
China accounts for their GDP is they
sell a lot of stuff. So you can imagine
in a trade war the people that are
buying things if they say yeah we're not
going to buy uh these call them luxury
goods or
non-essentials you're theoretically in a
much stronger position. meaning your GDP
can lower and it not feel as much like
it's going down. You don't get to buy as
many cool things. Uh but as long as
you're still able to get your groceries,
you're still able to get energy at a
reasonable cost, able to keep a roof
over your head, etc., etc., uh your life
isn't going to be impacted as much as
the people who are selling. And that's
basically what they're demonstrating
here is you've got factories now just
sitting on their hands because the
tariffs are so high that American
companies are like, uh, we need to see
how this plays out before we put in too
many more orders. Yeah. At the Shanghai
port, routes to the US are nearly shut
down with capacity dropping by 40% and
bookings plummeting by
63.5%. At Wuh's Hang Tan anchorage,
there are ships everywhere with no place
to go. Meanwhile, the UN is depreciating
quickly, falling nearly 10% against the
euro in just one month, and the
financial market is unstable. The
Economist Intelligence Unit predicts
that if US President Trump raises
tariffs by 60%, China's GDP growth will
lose 2.5 percentage points between 2025
and 2027. If your growth rate, I think
China is somewhere around the 5% mark
right now, which is amazing, and
everybody in America would kill for
that.
uh dropping by two and a half points
would basically cut their economy in
half. Jeez. So, uh take that with a
grain of salt. Maybe it doesn't drop
that much. Maybe China's GDP is a little
bit higher. people uh I watched a whole
breakdown on how China has found
themselves in a situation where it's
impossible even for them to get an
accurate assessment of what their GDP
actually is because the um Chinese
communist system creates an incentive to
lie. And so once you start lying it's
like impossible to stop because you
can't be like oh let's say you faked
we're up a percentage point uh three
years ago. Well, what are you gonna do
next year? So, they if they're if they
know they've got to be up by a
percentage point to impress somebody, um
then each year, how far does it drift?
Now, it's not going to go up by that
much every year. Just be too obvious too
quickly. Uh but the incentive anyway is
to upward. There's upward pressure.
China's admitted this themselves. They
understand that this is something that's
difficult to um take at the word of the
the different people that are in charge
of their region. Um, but there are ways
to get relatively close. So 5% is
probably not ridiculously far off.
Let's break it down with Lululemon yoga
pants. They sell in the US for
$118, but the Chinese factory only gets
$6. Even if the yen depreciates by half
from 7.5 yen to 15 yen per dollar, the
facto's cost would only drop to $3. A
negligible amount in the eyes of the
brand. Worse still, currency
fluctuations cause raw material costs to
soar, leading to unstable quotes from
Chinese
factories. This instability is scarier
than high prices. Brands would rather
place orders in places with stable
currencies like Vietnam or India. The
real reason brands are shifting orders
is the threat of higher tariffs and
geopolitical risks. That is a really
interesting point that when you
recognize that most of the companies
that are buying in any sort of
significant quantity are public
companies. Uh so there is a lot of
pressure on them to be able to
communicate to Wall Street this is what
we think our earnings are going to be.
And so they'll take a hit if they say
listen the prices have changed. This is
now what they are if it's worse. Um
because people are going to say okay
you're not going to be as profitable
next quarter. However, the thing that
becomes hard for them is when they don't
know what their prices are going to be.
And so, they're fluctuating wildly
because they're not going to be able to
communicate clearly to the street. Wall
Street uh Wall Street isn't going to
know exactly how to rate them, how to um
express in dollar terms the level of
risk. And so, it's always risk and
return. Mhm. And given
that companies would rather pivot and
reposition themselves somewhere else
away from China that's more stable
because at least then they can
communicate and then once things
stabilize they can decide if they want
to go back. But the lack of
stability is in and of itself a problem.
Uh so temporary or otherwise obviously
temporary is better but temporary or
otherwise when you have that kind of
uncertainty this is why you see the
volatility in the markets so it's better
for a company to go to Vietnam or India
to a place that's not getting increased
in tariffs every 5 days they're not
getting a change in tariffs so um and
this is part of the problem this is one
of the big complaints about the way that
Trump is doing this is he's doing it
everywhere and so even if Vietnam uh
doesn't have the kind of predictable
um rate that they can say, "Hey, cool.
It's up, but this is what it is." Now,
they're less likely to be as volatile as
China, which is why I think they're
about to talk about this. Uh
why different companies are pivoting to
different countries. Um better that than
the place that you know is going to be
peak uncertainty for the longest period
of time, which is China.
The trend of decoupling from China isn't
something that depreciating the UN can
stop. Lululemon has already moved 15% of
its production to Vietnam. Nike has
reduced its procurement from China from
35% to 18%. Apple's production capacity
in India has doubled. Major retailers
are setting a cap on single country
sourcing at no more than 30%. And
require a six-month stockpile in the US
Mexico region. The large orders that
Chinese factories relied on for survival
are being slashed. Amazon has directly
asked suppliers for non-China supply
chain certification in 2024 and the
rejection rate for Chinese sellers has
surged by 80%. Walmart and Costco are
building new warehouses in Mexico and
their procurement from China has dropped
by over 20% in the first quarter. The
trend of depreciation has already
started. Since October 2024, the
offshore UN exchange rate has repeatedly
broken the 7.3 mark, reaching a low of
7.36. It's important to understand
the the US for sure and I'm sure inter
international markets care as well about
when a country manipulates their
currency by devaluing it through
typically the printing of money. And so
what China is being credibly accused of
in my opinion is manipulating their
currency to make sure that their exports
are cheap. So you want to devalue the
yuan if you want to have um strong uh
exports. So that way people like oh my
god this stuff from China is really
cheap uh because my dollar is strong
compared to the yuan but we've sort of
come to this agreement between the US
and China that they're going to hold
their currency at 7 to1. Now obviously
there's going to be fluctuation but the
US starts to complain voseiferously once
you hit 7.2 two to give people a little
bit of uh historicals uh August 2019 the
yuan fell past the 7 to1 mark and it
just went to 7.03 03 to1 US and the US
Treasury offici at that point going to
0.03 the US Treasury officially labeled
China as a currency manipulator for the
first time since 1994. Now Trump was
president then so take it with a grain
of salt he's aggressive towards China.
Uh but in 2022 and through 2024 the yuan
went to
7.3 and right now we're like 7.31 I
think. Uh and so you're hearing more and
more criticism, my understanding is from
both the Biden administration and the
Trump administration uh towards China
for being a currency manipulator. And so
if we're if we were originally
complaining at 7.03 and we're now at
7.3,
uh you can imagine that's going to be
the next play. And so China uh has that
tool in their toolkit. They can
depreciate their currency and it's not
like anybody can stop them. Uh but I
think if I'm not mistaken it what it
would do is give Trump the ability to
use like there is an act I'm forgetting
what it is but there's an act that would
let him go ah these guys are currency
manipulators and so we can apply
secondary sanctions on them meaning we
punish people who do business with them.
Uh and so that's where you get into
potentially doing some pretty wicked
damage to the Chinese economy. Now, the
way that they're presenting this is very
one-sided in that you're not hearing how
is China going to punch back. Everybody
has a plan until they get punched in the
face. And so, China is going to counter
all of this every step of the way. And
uh there was a clip from Elon yesterday
that I thought was really insightful.
And he said, "China is full of brilliant
uh motivated engineers, so expect them
to make incredible things." And I'll say
that holds true for monetary policy as
well. China is full of brilliant people
just as the US is and they have a lot
more people. So if the percentage of
brilliance holds from one country to the
next, they're just raw number going to
have more brilliant people than we are
and don't expect them to not have an
answer. Yeah, the this is the trade war.
It goes tip for tat. The depreciation of
the UN is ineffective. And the real
issue China faces is not just a US
tariff war, but a global blockade
network formed by over 70 countries.
This is no longer a trade war. It's a
declaration of the new cold war. In the
semiconductor field, the Netherlands
will expand its ban on selling
lithography machines to China, including
DUV machines, effectively halting
China's production of chips below 28
nanometers. Japan is following suit by
banning ASML's exports to China. And the
US is offering 5.4 billion US dollars in
subsidies, creating a three-way
partnership that aims to decouple
Beijing from the global semiconductor
supply chain. Without chips, China can't
compete globally. So that might be the
most egregious one where they're not
presenting the the Chinese side of this.
So, China, it's my understanding that
they plan to bring on like ultra
sophisticated, I think on par with what
um is happening in Taiwan with the
really sophisticated chips. They're
bringing on their own manufacturing in
mainland China. Uh so again, that's a
counter punch that they've been working
on for a while. Uh so that is not
somewhere that I would bet against
China. If you remove all this stuff, you
might slow them down and maybe that is
advantageous. uh because honestly at
this point the cat's out of the bag.
They have developed the ability to
manufacture these chips and so now about
all you can do is continue to delay them
until they're able to bring that online
and get up to production capacity
that'll let them meet their own needs.
Um
but again they they have counter punches
under the US IRA policy. Its battery
companies still rely heavily on China
for critical materials like graphite
with over 80% dependence. Companies like
LG Energy Solutions must establish
non-China supply chains by 2027, pushing
Chinese companies into becoming mere
technology
contractors. The European Union has also
raised carbon tariffs to 15%, imposing
an additional 945 per ton tariff on
Chinese steel, effectively excluding
China from the market. In Iran,
pro-American factions are rising.
Iranian President Masud Peskin's faction
advocates for restarting nuclear
negotiations, creating a
behind-the-scenes struggle with
Ayatollah Kame's hardline policies.
China's 400 billion dollar investment in
in Iran might be at risk of going to
waste. North Korea, despite claiming a
3.1% growth, has a GDP of only $30
billion, which is less than the GDP of a
single Chinese county. As a strategic
buffer zone, its economic support is
limited. According to IMF data, since
the Russia Ukraine conflict started,
trade between geopolitical blocks has
dropped by 12%. And investment has
decreased by 20%. This multi-layered
decoupling has surpassed a trade war and
formed a cold war style parallel system.
China's adversary is not only the United
States, but the entire Western block.
Washington think tanks and policy
circles generally believe that keeping
China trapped in the middle income trap
is the ideal outcome for the United
States. With a per capita income
stagnating at
$15,000, China lacks the ability to
challenge America's global leadership
while avoiding complete collapse that
would cause global turmoil if they can
pull it off. But that's going to be
tough, man. Like coraling uh China with
the kind of momentum that they have now
is not a foregone conclusion in my mind.
This is uh there are dangers to our own
economy obviously as we see with the
stock market. Uh there are dangers to
inflation what people will call
inflation the rising prices of all the
things that we get from a high tariff
country. Um I've drawn the distinction
many times. People can go look up what I
mean by that. Um
so we still have to play this game very
very carefully. I do not want I don't
want even in my own mind to take on
board everything that's being said in
this as if like oh this is how it's
going to play out. Yay we're fine. Uh
this is still something that has to be
done with a ton of diplomacy.
Uh we'll see man we'll see. What do you
think is some of those counter punches
that that China might be throwing out?
Cuz you know according to this video to
your right their currency is being
manipulated the warehouses are empty.
They're finding external pressures with
their trade partners. But to our point,
China has said it time and time again,
we'll fight you to the very end. So I
think there is some things in their back
pocket that they are sitting on. What
are some things that might have been
left out of this video in your opinion?
The Well, so the biggest one is the fact
that they're going to be able technology
I think is the single most important
point of contact in all of this. Uh that
the battle for AI is the battle in the
cold war between the US and China. uh
that will be able to keep them from
getting access to those ships when
they're already building their own
manufacturing capabilities. When you
look at the fact that there's I don't
think anybody better in the world um
at showing how rapidly they can increase
the efficiencies of manufacturing. So I
won't say that they beat everybody on
high-end manufacturing. Obviously the
semiconductor industry is not in
mainland China. Uh but I have a feeling
given how often they'll look at what
other countries are doing and then do it
better at scale uh they're not the
people to bet against being able to
bring up their own chip manufacturing
capabilities. So that's one. Uh two, I
have a feeling I don't know what their
exact uh debt to GDP ratio is, but I
think it's better than the US's which
means that they have a lot of money
printing they can do uh before they get
in the situation that we're in. Um, and
the reality is, yes, they're not the
world's reserve currency, but um, they
are a very powerful economy that people
don't want to lose access to. Uh, so I
think that they're going to be able to
um, build some allies. I don't know how
many they're going to get. Obviously, if
the US uh if all of North America, so
Canada, the US, Mexico, and Europe all
come together, okay, then then it's game
over for China. I think that they're
really going to struggle to um grow in
the way that they could grow if they had
reach beyond just Asia. Um I just don't
know how lock step we're going to move
in given how adversarial Trump has been
to his allies. So, we'll see. Um, I
think there are realities to be faced,
which is I I'm going to place a bet that
Europe is far more likely to side with
the US and therefore will, grumbling or
not, that Canada is far more likely to
um partner with the US, grumbling or
not, Mexico, same thing.
um that I like to think that
western countries have their eyes open
enough to understand that um if you have
to be partners with somebody being
partners with the US when you disagree
with them is a better place to be than
being partners with China when they
disagree with you. Um we'll see that's
all going to play out. But that is
definitely my western
sensibilities coming into play. Just
like you said, we'll see. This is the
longest game of chicken on a public
stage that we have seen played out. So
now it's just gonna see who taps first.
The thing we we don't want to lose sight
of is we've hardly been at this for like
a month. Uh so it's just
the living day-to-day life with
uncertainties. It feels like it's going
on forever. And this is why people buy
high and sell low against the only piece
of advice you need in investing. Buy low
and sell high. The reason that people
can't do it is a day feels interminably
long when you're worried that you may
have lost everything or that you may end
up looking like a fool. And so people
panic and a month can seem interminable.
And that's why something you said at the
top of the show is important for people
to remember. Uh you're going to hear a
lot of noise about the Dow Jones
average, but it's where it was almost
exactly a year ago. And so yeah, we've
had these huge swings, but when you zoom
out, it's like we're flat. Yeah. We'll
get back to the show in a moment, but
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show. Well, in Supreme Court news, they
have a simple question to debate on
Tuesday. Do parents of public school
children have a constitutional right to
opt out their kids from classroom
lessons involving story books that
feature LGBTQ themes or characters? The
Supreme Court will tackle the question
today in a closely watched First
Amendment case. What say you about this
decision from the Supreme Court. Where
do you think it it falls? I'll be very
interested to see what they say.
Obviously, their read on the
Constitution is far better than mine,
but I have a very strong feeling on this
one, which is that the state does not
own your children. Uh, parents own, it's
a terrible word, but I don't have a
better one. Uh, children belong to their
parents, not to the state. And if a
parent says, "I do not want my child
involved in that book," then they
shouldn't be involved in that book. Flip
it. If there was a book that was all
about um that the only moral way to live
your life is a man and a woman to be
married and to raise kids. If your uh
parents, gay parents that have come
together and you're raising a child, I
would get why you'd be like hard pass.
Absolutely not. Uh so yeah, parents
should absolutely have the right to say
my child's going to step out of the
classroom for that period. Um which is
my understanding of what's happening. It
isn't banning books or anything like
that. It's just should parents have the
right to opt their child out of being
presented with that book. And to me, the
punch line is absolutely.
Yeah. A group of parents from Montgomery
County, Maryland, claim constitutional
protections for religious exercise means
that they have opportunity to exempt
them their kids from that instruction on
gender or sexuality that may counter
their teachings of faith. I can't
believe this got rejected and rejected
and rejected so that it made it all the
way to the Supreme Court. That is insane
to me. That's just like, yeah, obviously
they're your kids, dude. As a
non-parent, I feel like I'm more
inflamed about this stuff. When
California passed a law that they could
hide from you that your child wanted to
be called a different name in school, I
was like, dude, if I had kids, hard
pass, I'd be gone. It out of the school
system for sure, possibly out of
California. That that is there's
something in that that bothers me very
deeply. So yeah, children do not belong
to the state. And one of the um parents
who called up the two, he has now
homeschooled his kid to stop quote
unquote uh
indoctrination. Um I mean when you
flipped it, it makes a lot of sense to
me like gay parents shouldn't be subject
to their child being forced on hetero is
the way to go. This is how you live your
life. I think they would have the same
reaction that these religious parents
are having to LGBTQ uh ideals being put
on kids. So, I understand maybe we just
don't talk about sexuality to kids.
Maybe we just when I was growing up it
was sexed in 11th grade, maybe 8th grade
depending on where you went. But like
that's a pretty big swing. Yeah. But I
mean like maybe that is what it is
should be. It should be a home thing.
But back in the day, parents could
certainly opt their kids out of sex ed
in my school. uh which seems completely
appropriate. If parents don't want you
on that, then that they should be able
to do that. I I am almost as shocked as
I was today during the live that
60% of the community would rather die
than run ads. Long story chat, you'd
have to go back and check mirror season.
Oh my god, I can't believe that this is
controversial. Yeah. I can you channel
it as a parent? Like Yeah. Cuz I'm not
going to lie. I at first I was like,
"Well, that's exclusion." I thought it
was a book banning thing, too. But as
soon as you flipped it and kind of posed
that question, I'm like, "Well, yeah, if
you don't agree, tell your kid, your kid
should be able to opt out. Have them go
sit in the cafeteria. Have them go sit
in the library. Like, whatever they need
to do to get out of that, you should
have that ability to. I'm not opposed
that for any idea, anything." Um, but I
also talk to my kid a lot and I put
values on them. So I may have a
different view than you know the school
is always right and the state should
tell their kids. Maybe there are people
that feel that way but it's not me. We
we are all indoctrinating
everybody all the time like 100% the dad
is indoctrinating his child. So the
question becomes not should kids be
indoctrinated. They're going to be a
culture parents they're they are agents
of indoctrination. That's what they do.
And so the question becomes who should
have the right to indoctrinate your
children? the parents or the government.
I just can't even believe that this is a
question. So anyway, like I said, uh I
am perfectly willing to abide by what
the Supreme Court decides. That's the
whole point. Uh but this one I would be
I I would be um I'll be very vocal.
Yeah. If they say that you don't have
the right, I would obviously read the
whole document, the whole report, make
sure that I'm not getting something
wrong here. But oh buddy, that's nuts.
Yeah. Um, in business news, Google says
the DOJ's proposal to break up break
them up will be harmful in the global
race with China. So, for some context,
Google's ad business, including Chrome
and their Android units were labeled a
monopoly and they were then effectively
ordered to be broken up by a DOJ
representative. However, their counter
claim is the DOJ's proposal would
hamstring how we develop AI and have a
governmentappointed committee regulate
the design and development of our
products. Um, that would be hold back
American innovation at a critical
juncture. We're in a fiercely
competitive global race with China for
the next generation of technology
leadership and Google's at the forefront
of American companies making scientific
and technological breakthroughs. Now,
I've I've heard you ring that drum about
how we need to beat China in the AI
race. Should there be exceptions for
monopoly hearing certain things until
that
AI space is materialized? Should there
be some type of Manhattan project
exception for Google, open AI, Microsoft
until we win the AI war? Should I I
would certainly want Google to be able
to make its best case there. There is no
doubt about that because depending on
what parts of their business they are
going to force them to lop off. I could
see them not having access to enough
data to train the models well enough to
make the advances that we as a nation
want to make. Uh so that I get there
that could be a very real argument. Now
at the same time these guys have a
financial incentive to also convince
them of that whether it's true about the
AI side of things or not. Uh so I
would caution the uh regulatory bodies
to remember you're not as close to this
problem as they are. Uh and then I would
also remind the companies that when you
get into monopolies that ends up being
bad for the consumer. And so uh we have
antitrust laws for a reason. Those
antitrust laws tend to work out better
for the consumer. Um but it's not a free
pass. And so this has to be done well.
This has to be done with a scalpel.
You've got to make sure that you're
looking at the downstream consequences.
And we are at a moment for better or
worse when we are in a cold war with a
rival power uh at a time where the
technology the implications of winning
the technological race couldn't be
bigger. And so yeah, I would be very
thoughtful. Now the good news is I don't
think anybody has a monopoly on AI. So,
um, OpenAI is doing a bang-up job
without the kind of access to data that
Google has. Uh, you've got Elon Musk
who's done a phenomenal job of putting
himself in a position to collect ungodly
amounts of data, uh, between what's
going on in X and the self-driving cars.
That's a part I don't think people think
about is how much data they're drinking
in about behaviors, movements,
uh, location data, uh, mapping the
world. Like, it's crazy.
So, it's probably not the end of the
world if the regulators make a bad
decision on Google and block something
that slows them down a little bit. Um,
but honestly, if I could peer inside of
it and see, this really would help us
win the AI race, it's worth it. Like,
you want to win the AI race. Uh, but I
don't say that lightly because consumer
protections from monopolies is a good
thing. You want competition. Uh, it has
all kinds of knock-on effects, including
oftentimes you'll see, at least if the
companies when they split them up are
wellrun, uh, you'll see an increase in
share price. uh you see more
competitiveness with the individualized
products because now they can't just be
a part of a portfolio like they've
really got to stand on their own and so
people really start trying to make that
thing sing. Uh
so it it's it's tough. AI matters
tremendously. There's enough other
players in the game that I'm not going
to lose sleep over this. Nice. In other
AI news, Lovable dropped an app that
claims all you have to do is type and
build an app. um idea to app in seconds
is taking vibe coding to a whole new
level. Um you use lovable you're talking
about this weekend, right? Like Yeah. So
this one for anybody that's uh been at
the headline level of AI, this is going
to be like yeah obviously we've been
able to do this for a long time. Uh so I
won't say so I'm not a coder. Let me be
very clear. We have a coder in house uh
who is endlessly frustrated by vibe
coding apps and web pages. uh he's
endlessly frustrated that you just run
into these problems that he's like h is
it really speeding me up? I don't know.
Uh but as somebody that has on the
periphery been trying all of these
things, this was the first time where I
was gobsmacked where I was like man I've
hit deadends before uh very early in the
process to the point where I was like me
like if you're not a coder like this
just it doesn't do anything interesting.
You're far better off spending your time
going and finding an app that already
exists that does that thing rather than
trying to do it yourself. Uh, and then,
uh, I was trying to do my anime and
manga tracking, and uh, there's an anime
that I like a lot called Devil May Cry
by, um, Audi Shankar, which by the way,
this guy's unbelievable. And he's
American. And so, ironically, I think
the most of his animation is done out of
South Korea, but there are purists about
anime has to be from Japan. And so, the
app that I use to track doesn't include
Devil May Cry. Anyway, I found that so
offensive that I'm like, I'm going to
make my own. And so I went and started
using Firebase, which is Google's. It
got frustrated very fast. I was like,
let me try Lovable. I've been hearing
about it. Dropped into Lovable and I was
like, "Holy Lord, it was I got so much
farther." Now, I still ended up in a
death loop of like I was trying to make
a change. It just could not make the
change. It would every time it would
make the change, it would break
something. It It kept breaking like you
can either have A or B. You can't have A
and B. Like as soon as I would fix A, B
would break. As soon as I would fix B, A
would break again. Back and forth, back
and forth, back and forth. So I was
like, okay, if I were a coder at this
point, I would just go in see the exact
problem because it could tell me what
the problem was, but I'm not going to go
into the code and try and fix it. Uh, so
anyway, this felt like a huge leap
forward. People will forgive me if they
are far more familiar and um, but I've
tried uh, Claude 3.7. I've tried
Firebase. I've tried Lovable. Uh, I
think I tried one other one and all of
them I just will deadend really early.
Like Firebase I deadended so early. Uh,
and Lovable was able to recommend an
API, integrate the API, start pulling
the information. Uh, it didn't make me
prompt it for like, hey, populate this
with dummy data. It just did all of
that. So, I literally gave it the exact
same a copy and paste prompt from what I
had done in Firebase, moved it over to
Lovable, and the results were night and
day different. It was very impressive.
So, look, the these things are all going
to go back and forth. They're all going
to be leaprogging each other. But that
one felt exciting. That was the first
time where I, as a complete non-coder,
was like, "Oh, this isn't just hype.
Like, there's really something here."
And the anthropic CEO said by the end of
this year, he believes that basically
99% of all coding will be done with AI.
That was the first time where I was
like, I don't know about the next seven
months, but bro, the next 12 like
definitely. Yeah. Yo, it's it's moving
fast. It almost reminded me of how you
described it with writing. Like writing
with chat GPT is like having like the
most efficient writer room possible. Oh
my god. I feel like it that's probably
what coders feel like with like chat GPT
or some of these AI apps of like I know
how to build it. Do the minutia. Let me
get into my creative. Do the minutia.
Let you know what I mean? Like you you
have just nailed it. Because I'm not a
coder. That very self-evident statement
of truth you just made did not occur to
me. Uh that's exactly right. This is
where writing is where I cannot believe
how much faster I write now. It's lease
and I were running the math. It's at
least twice as fast. It might be four
times as fast. Wow. Where it's just
unbelievable because I spent 18 months,
something like that as a professional
screenwriter. I was just paid to write.
Uh, and it would take me about eight
months to get a first draft of a
wellthoughtout screenplay from like I
need an idea to here is the draft. Uh,
I'm convinced now that I could do that
for sure in four months. And that's
probably with rewriting. So, it's
dramatic, but there is a handoff where
if I just say, "Write me this scene," it
will be super cheesy. And so, I do all
the brainstorming, all the problem
solving with AI, which it is
unbelievably good at. Uh, and then you
still have to go in and like script. But
then if you're like, "Ah, there's
something not right. What's not right?"
You can feed it to the AI. It's very
insightful. It's just not good at
execution. Uh, and in Lovable's defense,
it did keep telling me, "The problem's
right here. The problem's right here."
And I was just like, "Bro, I'm not going
to go fix that. You need to fix it." Uh,
and it just couldn't. No. So, we'll look
forward to see that. Um, HHS Secretary
RFK is today announcing a plan to remove
artificial food dyes from the American
food supply with the FDA. I know RFK is
controversial in a lot of areas. To me,
this seems like a slam dunk win. I don't
know if you got anything on this one,
but I mean, look, at a high level, I'm
always tense when the government thinks
that they know better. Uh because when
we started Quest, they were like, "You
shouldn't have fat in your food." We're
like, "Uh, what?" So, that was absurd.
But we were all in a loop of uh fat's
the problem. And that ended up not being
true. However, when you look at our food
supply, something is going wrong.
there's either environmental toxins or
something that we're putting in our
body. Given that the vast majority of
the things you put in your body are
food, uh the food matters. And given
that other countries that don't have
quite our obesity epidemic and quite our
chronic health burden, they don't allow
some of those things in food. I'm here
for taking a more conservative stance.
Now, if he were trying to ban a
macronutrient, then I would be like,
hold the the phone here. like you're
getting way out over your skis on this.
But saying we're not going to do color
dye. Yeah, let's run the experiment.
Let's see what happens. I think there
are probably more things like that that
are like, yeah, they're not really doing
anything additive. It's worth at least
checking to see like how does this play
out if we take this out of the food
supply. Uh so I'm I'm going to give him
latitude. I think he's very sincere. Um
I believe history may prove this wrong,
but I believe that he really wants to
help. he really wants to do good and
he's really willing to look at what the
data says. Uh given that he's starting
conservative with something like food
diet, which is not a nutritional value
thing. It just makes it look more
appealing. Um yeah, let's give it a
shot. Yeah, we'll see what happens. And
then last but not least, summer's right
around the corner. So, uh fellas, next
time your girlfriend wife tells you
she's going to a girl night out without
you, um I have a list of questions for
you to ask her.
Just say, "This doesn't work for me.
This doesn't work for me because I don't
want my girlfriend slashfuture wife half
naked out with a bunch of other women
getting hit on by men all night. And I
would also ask you doll, if you're with
me and happy, why do you feel the need
to go out and get all these attention
from other men? Why? Because that's why
she's doing it. No, she's doing it for
herself and her girl. Really? Then why
aren't they sitting in the house? Why
didn't they get all dressed up in the
miniskirts and the sequins and all that
stuff and buy some alcohol if they want
to be tipsy and go sit in somebody's
house and dance with a big disco ball in
the ceiling? because there's no other
guys there because they're lying to you
because the whole point is to go out and
to get hit on by other men because
you're not enough. She's not that into
you. You are like, "Okay, but she also
wants all the attention from everyone
else." Bottom line is girls night out is
a disaster. It's a hot mess. It's not
well-intentioned. It's all bad things.
Is a girl's night out all bad things?
Definitely not. Listen, for some people,
sure, it's uh it's an excuse to go not
only get male attention, but to cash in
on some of that male attention, for
sure. Um, I'm going to I'm going to take
this conversation to an evolutionary
place. And let's see where we get
because I think that she's asking very
surface level questions and the real
questions to ask are, and I promise this
is all going to come back around. Um,
why is, and if you have kids, now is the
time to eject them out of the car or
wherever you are. Uh, why is the penis
shaped the way that it's shaped? Um, why
is the clitoris on the outside? Why do,
if men have been away from the woman,
why do they um deposit more semen upon
having sex? Uh, why is it that women are
vocal during sex?
Um, when you really look at the shape of
the penis, it should terrify you for
what our ancestry uh was like because it
I don't know how hard to go in the pain
here, but give it to them. Uh, it's
shaped like a shovel to scoop things out
and you can imagine what it's trying to
get rid of. Which means that on an
evolutionary time scale, there was so
much what's known as sperm competition,
meaning the woman had viable sperm in
her at the same time before the egg was
fertilized. So often that the penis most
likely to scoop out what was there
before it won. Like it actually changed
the shape. Now, I'm not saying at the
human level. I'm saying this is how you
come up through the animal kingdom. Now,
it ends with that final bit of uh
fine-tuning at the human level. Um that
men ejaculate more volume when they've
been away uh and fear that their woman
has been around other men. Uh the
assumption is that you've had sex with
other men and I've got to out compete
that sperm. And so that means that that
was an evolutionary strategy that was
rewarded. So meaning it it actually
mattered. The guys that did that had the
guys with the most shovely shape and
that were depositing the most sperm when
they've been away from their woman. They
won, dude. They won. And it echoed back.
And then why is the And remember, I am
going to make all this add up to girls
night. Uh,
and why is the ctorus on the outside?
If you look at our closest genetic
relative, it's the bonobo. and the
bonobo live in societies where they use
touching of the genitals as ways to
um like overcome friction in society. So
if you got in a fight, if two women get
in a fight or whatever, then they'll go
up and they'll touch each other on on
the genitals as an apology, as a way to
just be like, "Girl, I'm with you." Uh
literally.
And I think the only thing that makes
sense because that thing should be a
button on the inside. Can we agree? So
it's like the only thing from an
evolutionary standpoint if it was just
about pregnancy, that [ __ ] would be on
the inside and uh your goal as a man
would be to [ __ ] [ __ ] [ __ ] and just like
do the things that maximize your
likelihood of getting them pregnant.
Yeah. So, uh, but it's not it's on the
outside and I think that's because it
works at a minimum dual duty and, uh,
yeah, I find that utterly fascinating.
Now, for people that know the anatomy of
a clitoris, it's actually not just on
the outside, it's also on the inside. It
wraps around, uh, the vaginal canal, but
anybody that's been with a woman uh, can
tell you right now that the bit on the
outside is the best bit, Drew, and it is
the easiest. Yeah. Uh, so I think that
evolution has made women want to be the
center of sexual attention. That women
are designed to attract the highest
quality mate that they can attract. That
they just like men, women run a dual
strategy. And uh, when they're pregnant,
they prefer when you're on the pill or
pregnant, women will show a preference
for men with softer features. when they
are ovulating, they show a pref or not
on the pill. They show a preference for
men with more traditionally masculine
features. So that tells you I'm looking
for the highest quality genetic stock
that I can get at one part of my cycle
and then I'm looking for a man that can
help me take care of this child at
another point in my cycle. And I think
it wise for people to embrace the
reality uh so that you don't have a
deranged relationship. My wife is gonna
drive herself crazy if she doesn't think
I'm gonna find other women attractive.
Men are meant to seek sexual variety.
Now, to honor my marriage and my desire
to bond with one woman, I'm not going to
actually pursue other women. But I don't
want her driving herself crazy thinking
that I only have eyes for you. I never
look at other women. Like, if she looks
over and I'm looking at somebody's ass,
she shouldn't be like, "Oh my god, he
doesn't love me." Like, she even said,
"Uh, you're not enough." That's not why
a woman wants to not why all women Yeah.
uh want to go to the girls night out. It
is that evolution has said, "Hey, being
the center of sexual attention uh is a
great trade-off. So men want to focus on
you. You want to be focused on and I'm
well aware they only want to be focused
on men that they find desirable. I get
that. But nonetheless, they have to have
that impulse in order to do the dance of
um I want to be attractive to you so
that you will pursue me, so that I can
put you through your paces so I can
figure out if you're going to be the
right person to mate with, either from a
physiological standpoint or from
long-term access to uh resources, which
is why women both often will have a
type. I want a guy who's tall and
strong. I don't think anybody's going to
trip out hearing that. Uh but also, I
want a guy that makes me laugh. the
laughter, humor is a sign of
intelligence. Intelligence is a proxy
for you'll be able to get access to
resources. So, you've got this intricate
dance and evolution has given women a
positive feedback loop when they put
themselves at the center of that sexual
attention. They are picky. They are
choosy. Obviously, women are the sexual
gatekeepers, but that is part of what's
going on in the desire to go out and to
have that male attention. There's just
an algorithm running in their brain that
makes that feel really wonderful. Now,
they're humans. They have a prefrontal
cortex, which means they do not have to
give in to whatever impulses they have.
My wife has gone gone on plenty of girls
nights. I don't get weird about it
because I have so much trust with my
wife.
And yes, people should have rules. Uh,
yes, people should articulate very
clearly what they consider acceptable
and not acceptable. Yes, people should
work in their relationship to make sure
that the other person feels not
intellectually understands but feels in
their bones the level of commitment that
you have to them and to the relationship
and I use that word very intentionally.
Mh.
And I think when you put all of that
together along with Yeah. some women uh
they feel neglected. Some women probably
don't. Um, they're leaning more towards
promiscuity and they really are going
behind your back and they really are
doing things that you would be
mortified. Of course, there's all of
that just as there are guys that are
unfaithful and they cheat and all that.
Uh, what I would want for people is to
understand that we have these
evolutionary impulses. There is a reason
we are the way that we are, but we have
a prefrontal cortex for a reason. Engage
that. Um, focus on pair bonding. like
you were giving me a jokingly hard time
that after the long weekend I said,
"Hey, did you deepen your romance uh to
people that I knew were in relationships
and I really meant that." Like I take
time on long weekends like that to make
sure that I'm investing heavily in my
marriage. Nothing has reaped greater
returns for me. Uh but that stuff
doesn't happen by accident. So you have
to do things to make sure that you guys
are pair bonding and all of that. uh and
that will reap tremendous rewards
despite the fact that the cltorus is on
the outside, despite the fact that the
penis is shaped like a shovel. Uh all of
that at the end of the day, we can
overcome that. But to blind yourself to
the complexities of the human
experience, I think is a mistake. And
while that clip is fun and funny, uh I
don't think it is accurate across all
women that could conceivably be going
out on a girl's night. Well said. Well
said. Ipto facto. That's all I got. All
right, everybody. If you're not already
watching us live, make sure you do. It
is Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday at 6:00
a.m. Pacific time, and here are some
highlights from today's live. It's
interesting to tell my own story because
I'll say, uh, nobody uh thought that I
would be successful. And my wife is
always like, "Motherfucker." She was
like, "I have always known that you were
going to do something and nobody has put
their lot more with you than me." And
she was like, "But whenever you tell the
story, it's always that nobody believes
in you." And I'm like, "That's actually
fair because as I have oft repeated to
my wife, I don't want to know who I
would have become if I didn't meet her."
[Music]
And that one is like when I just step
back and go
from the trust that I have in her, from
knowing that if I fall that she'll pick
me up. Have you seen Oh god, I'm going
to get emotional.
Let's go. Emotions. Emotions. Emotions.
Highly emotions. Okay, let's go. Do it.
Let's do it. Do it. Do it. I see it. I
see it. Let it happen. Let it happen,
man. It's You're around family
on the internet, Drew. Oh, [ __ ]
Man, this is a beautiful moment. This is
a beautiful
moment. Oh, chat loves it. Thank you,
Chad. Thank you for showing support and
showing up the hugs in the chat. This is
a tough moment. It's a human It's a
human emotion. It's a human moment.
Yeah, human moment.
Man,
man, some some things are better left
unset.
Um
Uhhuh. Okay, take two. Hearts in the
chat. Hearts in the chat all around.
Everybody got your back. You seen
Michael J. Fox with his wife?
There she is.
Hey, baby. You're going to make this
worse.
I was thinking about my head. I was
like, maybe we need this at least
situation. A
We're going to shake that
off.
Uh, so hi everyone. There's footage of
Michael J. Fox with his wife and on the
red carpet he's shaken to [ __ ] obviously
because of um
Parkinson's. She's still with him god
knows how many years later in sickness
and in health man.
and that you want to talk about what I
want for everybody. That belief we
romanticize love and all the joys and oh
my god butterflies and yeah um but it is
really real when 10 years ago my gut
just fell apart. I couldn't stand up. I
could barely breathe. He was ready to
rush me to the hospital every time I
would eat something. I mean it was bad.
And in those moments how do you respond?
Now sometimes I think initially it's
kind of easy. I'll show up for you. Let
me do things. A year in, two years in,
it's a very different picture. And he
showed up for me every step. That's what
real love in sickness and health
actually looks like. Um and he never
once complained. In fact, I want to say
it was at least two years, but I don't
want to exaggerate, but it feels true.
For two years, he didn't eat sugar
because I couldn't. Now imagine guys,
it's his birthday and I'm like, "Let's
get you a cake." Cuz I couldn't eat
anything. He's like, "No, I don't want a
cake on my birthday. I want to be able
to eat what you can eat and we're in it
together." That's what freaking true and
sickness and health looks like. Okay,
I'm coming back. I'm sorry. All right,
we got to shake it out. I love So I love
seeing that kind of stuff. Yeah, I'm
into it. Unice, you were right to love
love. It It is tasty. Valentine's Day is
my second favorite holiday. Bird [ __ ]
and potatoes.
These are facts, dude. What a meal.
Doesn't quite work like that. But you uh
soil gets rapidly depleted. Plants need
nitrogen. They cannot pull it out of the
air. They have to pull it out of the
soil. And the most efficient way to get
it into the soil is through dung.
Doesn't go away. So, it just stacks and
stacks and stacks. So, you get these
islands that like are uninhabitable. You
can't even go on them. The smell of the
nitrogen is so or the ammonia I guess is
so strong that people can't bear to go
near it. But you can hire people or back
in the day enslave them. Hey, always a
good time. And you force them onto the
island. You mine this stuff. And there
were literal wars is probably an
exaggeration, but people were conquering
these islands, taking them away from
each other because once you had that,
you could ship it to other countries and
allow them to grow better crops. And
what they found was in terms of a
complete item that's easy to grow,
potatoes were like the jam. If you had
potatoes and milk, you were good.
Who would have guessed? So like around
the world, potatoes start in like some
small place. I don't remember if it was
South America, but I think it was
potatoes start in like the Andes and
then they just find their way to
everywhere around the world because they
could transport the poo and they could
transport the seeds for the potatoes and
we could literally feed more people. And
so suddenly nations that had been
stagnant from a population standpoint
for god knows how long. All of a sudden
we get this huge population
explosion. Poop and potatoes man. Thank
you poo. Poop and potatoes. Like it's
crazy. Unsung heroes of today and
earthworms. Who would have guessed? Why
is the clitoris on the outside? The only
answer that makes any sense is that it
can be touched with a hand. And at that
point, it's like, well then, who's that
access for? And it soothes all the
concerns and they're able to get to the
other side of it. And so, as a guy, the
number of times where I've been like,
what is that doing on the outside? Like,
that is the craziest [ __ ] I've ever seen
in my [ __ ] life. But that makes me
absurd. Worried about the other way
because male pleasure zones are inside
of their anus. So, bro, have you ever
touched your penis? That thing's pretty
amazing. And it's designed to go
inside. So from a I want to get this
person pregnant standpoint. No, but I
mean chef's kiss the male the male
G-spot is inside the anus.
I sure
but I mean here's the thing. I've never
found myself going, you know what would
make this finally fun? I'm just talking
about the clitters on the outside
evolution. And so they're now on this
side.
I get how much context matters. I really
do. But as somebody who's had a prostate
exam, let me tell you, I wasn't like,
well, this is fun. Context matters.
Yeah. I wasn't like, well, I've got a
new context I'd like to introduce this
to. Uh, so yeah, I'm going to say that
if we're going to talk about where the
pleasure zones are, but the head of the
penis pretty pleasury zone. So that one
doesn't seem weird to me. But yeah,
I don't I don't get it. Uh, that Well,
so I have a hypothesis, but if it isn't
that, then I'm like, what's happening? I
I am not telling people to go inside the
booty hole. Brock Johnson, I am You're
just saying it would be better if you
did. I'm not saying that either. He was
just he you was just out. I hope you
where the pleasure are duct tape closed
if they're anywhere near the what you're
listening to right now. All right, the
chat.
Yep. All right, everybody. If you
haven't already, be sure to subscribe.
And until next time, my friends, be
legendary. Take care. Peace. Here is the
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theory.com/scale. If you like this
conversation, check out this episode to
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Schwab resigns from the WF. China warns
people not to sign trade deals with the
US. The Supreme Court drops a midnight
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Brett Weinstein has a banger take on the
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