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Language: en
Tariff Hokeyp Pokei continues. Trump
offers a 90-day reprieve to everyone but
China. Stock markets surge on the news.
AOC points out blatant congressional
insider trading. Mr. Wonderful demands
more tariffs on China. Now, Victor Davis
Hansen breaks down how AI, automation,
and tariffs go hand in hand. And Elon
prepares to launch Earth to Earth,
travel via rockets. Katy Perry gets
ready to go to space. And Optimus robots
get ready for a trip to Mars. Drew, do
you like dancing the hokeyp pokei? Um,
do you was it uh put your left hand in,
put your left hand out, put your tariffs
in and you shake them all about, Drew.
And now Trump is turning himself around.
This Oh boy. Oh boy. He recently
announced the 90-day pause for the
reciprocal tariffs. The blanket 10% is
staying and he's saying he's negotiating
with up to 70 countries. China, though,
as of today, cuz news is traveling fast,
it's at 145% right now. tariffs, tariffs
on China specifically. Everybody else
has gotten a 90-day pause outside of
that blanket 10%. Um, what's your
initial read on his pause and the stock
market reaction? Uh, well, okay. So,
first let's start with this is economic
warfare. If you ever wondered what it
looked like, it looks like this. This is
what happens when great powers collide.
Uh, nobody wants to be the loser. Nobody
wants to accept second place. Um, people
are not going to take a realistic
assessment of where they are. They're
going to do battle. Um, we obviously
always hope that this does not continue
to escalate or to spill over. Uh, but it
is happening right now. And so I don't
know where this settles out because now
you're into the humanity of it all.
You're into the cultural sense of uh,
does either side feel like they can back
down? Both sides are going to be playing
to their constituents. Both sides are
playing to their own personalities. Both
sides are playing to the cultural
expectations. And that's just it's too
complicated of a game to know how this
is going to play out. um during the live
you pulled up a graph that I thought was
really instructive and so I'd bring that
up now. This is exactly what Scott
Bessant was trying to warn people about
uh when he said, "Hey, they were
obviously talking to China primarily."
And I want everybody to be very clear.
The reason that China doesn't get a
reprieve here is this whole battle is
about the US versus China. Who is going
to be in economic first place? That is
the game. And China's been playing a
very slow burn game for a very long term
with the long-term goal of being the
world's dominant economic power. Cert's
dominant economic power full stop. It
might be true that they are perfectly
happy to just take their region of
influence. Uh but given how active
they've been in South America, I don't
know how much credence to put into that.
But Scott Besson was trying to tell
people, "Dear China, by way of a comment
to everybody, don't retaliate. And the
reason you don't want to retaliate is
the graph on your screen which shows the
amount of things that China imports or
exports to us and the amount that we
export to China. And it is dramatically
different. So China is exporting way
more to us than we export to China. So
when you go into a head-to-head economic
battle and the playground is who's going
to get the higher tariff, meaning whose
goods become more expensive in the other
person's country, it will just do wildly
disproportionate damage to China. But
China has something in their back
pocket, which is we manufacture your
stuff. So play with us at your peril.
And this is where you just don't know
where the upper bounds are of the
escalation. Will China break first where
they are tariffing our goods so heavily
or I should say they are making us so
angry however they do it they're making
us so angry that we raise the prices of
their goods so high that now they're
forced to either dump them on their own
country uh neighboring countries other
countries that they already have
relationships with. Um because if that
ends up being the case, you get into the
deflationary spiral that we've talked
about before. Uh longtime listeners of
the show will understand I try to be
very careful to distinguish between a
crisisled deflationary uh event bad and
innovationled deflation good. So this
would very much fall into the crisisled
deflationary camp. This would not be
good and it won't be good on either
side. We will both have a problem. Uh
but the US has a far smaller problem in
that if we're able to isolate the goods
that we must have versus the goods that
we want, uh then we're going to be in a
position where sure flat screens and
technology and things that we've
outsourced the manufacturing of to
China, those those are going to go up
way up if we continue in this battle. Um
but if the things that you really need,
food being the most obvious,
energy prices, that is a huge one. If
those remain low, but discretionary
goods become expensive and flip that and
China just has economic collapse is an
exaggeration but extreme economic pain
then it's very possible and again this
is what Besson was warning about that we
will be able to go much farther much
longer with less damage to our economy
less damage to our way of life than the
Chinese will be able to do and if the
Trump administration if if they're able
to relegate the damage to discretionary
goods and the stock market, we'll
probably be fine. Uh and we'll play a
clip later from Victor Davis Hansen. He
does an incredible job of outlining how
the people screaming about the stock
market in the US are basically 10% of
the population. 90% cares a lot less.
50% basically don't care at all. they
have an intellectual understanding of
why it matters but it doesn't affect
their lives because they don't own any
stocks whatsoever. Uh so it if you're
able if we America are able to damage
the overall Chinese economy and China is
only able to damage our discretionary
purchases and our stock market, we're
probably in a pretty good place to be
able to outlast them. It will suck. It
will be bad. And the thing that you
really risk is a global recession.
Setting that aside for a second. So
that's how I come into interpreting the
things that Trump is doing. I am not
saying this is wise. I am not saying
this is the right way to handle it. Uh
we're gonna play Victor Davis Hansen who
gives a really um I think eloquent
breakdown of how this plays out. Um,
but if you understand that that is the
table as it is set in Trump's mind,
Xiinping's mind, you understand that
these are people that are arguing not
just from an economic standpoint, but
from an ego standpoint, you're going to
have much higher predictive validity.
Yeah. And some people wanted to go even
further with Mr. Wonderful going on CNN
calling for a 400% tariff. Yeah. This is
interesting. So this reveals some of the
underlying um animosity that people will
be wise to put into their interpretation
engine or their prediction engine,
better way of saying it, that um okay,
Trump has an ego that causes him to act
in a certain way. Uh Xiinping has an ego
that causes him to act in a certain way.
Mr. Wonderful just wears it on his
sleeve in this clip. 104% tariffs in
China are not enough. I'm advocating
400%. I do business in China. They don't
play by the rules. They've been in the
WTO for decades. They have never abided
by any of the rules they agreed to when
they came in for decades. They cheat.
They steal. They steal IP. I can't
litigate in their courts. They take
product technology. They steal it. They
manufacture it and sell it back here.
Never has an
administr on an airplane to Washington
to level the playing field. This is not
about tariffs anymore. Nobody has taken
on China yet. Not the Europeans, no
administration for decades. As someone
who actually does business there, I've
had enough. I speak for millions of
Americans who have IP that have been
stolen by the Chinese. I have nothing
against the Chinese people. They brought
great literacy, art, and tech to the
world. The government cheats and steals.
And finally, an administration. You may
not like Trump. You may not like his
style or his rhetoric. Finally, an
administration that puts up and says
enough 400% tariffs tomorrow morning.
He'll tell you why. She can only stay
the supreme leader if people are
employed. If we wipe out any business
there, because we are still 39% of all
consumables on Earth and 25% of the
world's GDP, America is the number one
economy on Earth with all the cards. We
will not have that forever. It's time to
squeeze Chinese heads into the wall now.
Uh so I don't think it will surprise
anybody that I hate language like
squeeze Chinese heads into a wall.
Crazy. Uh,
but the reason I wanted to play that
clip is he's just wearing his emotion on
his sleeve. So, if you've ever gotten
into a physical altercation, you know,
there comes a moment where you're just
like, I've had enough and I'm now going
to throw the first punch and come what
may. And the question with Trump is, is
this a streetyard brawl where he's not
thinking farther down the road and it's
literally, I can't take it anymore. I am
punching you in the face and I'm
punching you in the face right now and
all I've thought about is how hard I'm
gonna punch you in the face. And then oh
[ __ ] the fact that you're a jiu-jitsu
practitioner and you take it to the
ground. I didn't think that far. Uh or
is this an MMA cage fight where he's
been training for months or in his case
been talking about China for 40 years.
Uh he's been talking about tariffs,
that's more accurate, for 40 years.
and that he's watched the tape and
thought about this and he's got a game
plan like George St. air where it's like
uh okay if they take it to the ground
I'm going to do this if they want to
fight standing I'm going to do this and
that is the debate and my like if people
want to know what my prediction is of
how this plays out I think Trump loses
at the midterms and this just plays out
like it traditionally does but I think
meaning that if you look at the math
it's like people almost always lose if
they have both the house and the senate
they lose one of them at the midterms
it's like ridiculous at like 70% or 75%
whatever it's high uh so I'm just
playing odds on that one. But if he's
going to win, it will be because the
following things happen. Again, I'm
trying to map what is not how I believe
it ought to be. I've talked endlessly
about the things that we have to
address. And certainly, if you want to
push me on the uh part, I'll happily
talk about it. But with the is part, it
goes something like this. Um I have
thought about this. This is Trump. I've
thought about this a lot. And I
understand that graph that we put up and
I understand that I've we collectively
have had enough as Americans. We are not
going to allow ourselves as we march
forward to be put in a worse and worse
position by the day. We probably should
have taken the stand back in the9s when
they were far less e um economically
powerful than they are now. They are
becoming economically as powerful or
maybe even more powerful than us. They
are from a navy perspective they are
outb buildinging us. I it's something
like 20 to1. It is not a small amount.
Like they are absolutely slaughtering
us. Historically, whoever controls the
seas controls the world. So there's no
way I am aware of all this stuff and
Trump isn't. So he is obviously
operating inside of this. And whether
his plans work or not, I think it is
patently absurd to take a guy that's
been beating the tariff drum for
literally at least three decades, it
might be more, and say he hasn't thought
about this. He could be wrong about how
this will play out. But to say, "No,
this is just a schoolyard fight. He's
just punching you in the nose and he
hasn't thought about anything else."
That that is a that has so little
predictive validity. Um, so I have a
feeling that he's got a shot if he can
get a major partner to come into this
and agree to the new world order, let's
call it, that then people are going to
fall like dominoes. Um, but the first
thing we're going to see is we just
punched China. China has punched us
back. We punched China again. We're now
at 145% tariffs. um how many more blows
are thrown? But if you don't understand
the Mr. Wonderful, I've had enough of it
all, none of this is going to make
sense. And the reason I have no idea if
this is going to work is I know some
portion of what's driving Trump isn't
the game plan. It's the I've been
punched in the face. I'm mad as hell and
I'm not going to take it anymore. And
people tend to act crazy. And so the
more China punches back, the less likely
he is to stick with the game plan. And
so a lot of times you'll see MMA
fighters, this is why George St. here
was so unbelievable. Uh in his prime,
like take the Matt Sarah fight, goes
against Matt Sarah, gets beat crazy. No
one expects it. Insane upset. Uh fights
him again and just dismantles him. And
he was like, "Oh, I had the wrong game
plan the first time. And the second time
I just wasn't sucked into any of the
problems. I did my game plan and that
was that." And he was so calculated.
Trump isn't like that constitutionally.
Like he's an emotional fighter. So I
think he has a game plan. I think he's
thought a lot about this and I and I
think he's prone to getting mad and
behaving emotionally and so that feels
like the right milla of how is this
going to play out that feels like it has
high predictive validity. We'll see. Uh
now we're all again I plan to flag as to
where I think we are largely so I can
find out if I'm thinking clearly because
it will have so many benefits moving
forward.
Um okay, full stop. That's where I'm at.
any any push back you you can feel
coming from the community on that? It
just seems
like to have tariffs in place, let's
call them roughly 5 days, four days,
I'll give the announcement a couple
grace and then immediately pull them
back. It does seem erratic. It doesn't
seem like it's a calculated plan. Have
you Sorry, go ahead. I was going to say
as you laid it out, it seems as if he
was doing that in order to get those
leaders phone calls. It it seems like a
sledgehammer to for a regular hammer job
like he's using a sledgehammer to hang
up a picture which I guess you can use.
It just seemed a bit jarring and the
stock market reacted and the markets
reacted to it. That is the right way to
think about this moment. This is why I
think Victor Davis Hansen has the best
take I've heard on this. We'll play that
in a second. Um yeah, I think that there
is a lot of argumentation to say is this
the right game plan? So, I agreed we
need if somebody is saying I agree we
need to be in the fight. I agree we need
to cause enough pain to China that they
no longer want to fight us. I disagree
that you want to just straight jab to
the nose. That's dumb. He should have
done something far more sneaky. Okay,
here's where I will say here is a way to
interpret Trump. I'm not saying this is
exactly what's happening. In fact, the
closest thing to my my real naked belief
about what I think is happening is what
I was just saying. He's thought about it
for a long time, but he's an emotional
fighter. Uh, and so I don't know if he's
already gotten sucked into the emotion,
if this is still part of the plan. I
don't know that it'll be entirely clear
when it becomes pure emotion or not. We
could already be there. Um, but if I
were writing him as a character and I
wanted to say, okay, option number one,
he's just purely in the emotion and so
he's going to keep rationing up because
he has painted himself into that that
corner constitutionally. That's how he's
built. Another way would be to say he's
sitting in a room with Scott Bessant.
He's sitting in a room with Howard
Lutnick. He's sitting in a room with
Elon Musk. He's getting a lot of voices
that are giving him angles on how this
could play out. And I guarantee Besson,
because he said it to the public, is
going to be something along the lines
of, um, okay, Trump, if you insist,
because I have a feeling Besson would
have played this way more
calmly. Me mind readading. I don't know
that, but that's my gut instinct about
him. Uh, okay. Trump, understood. You
want to go crazy. So, we are gonna go in
and we are going to throw the first
punch. And that if if I have to make
that work, uh, let me give you some
predictions about what you're going to
have to do. Destabilize the market.
You're going to have to confuse
people because the market that you're
going to destabilize is only the stock
market. the actual day-to-day prices, as
long as we are very careful, and Howard
Lutnik talked openly about this. If you
can't make a mango in America, don't
[ __ ] tariff a mango.
So, this is where the the blanket tariff
thing is like, "Hey guys, remember when
you talked about that? I really hope
that you've got some caveats for that
down the road." Now, we could already be
in pure emotion. I want to be very clear
about that. But I know Lutnick's in his
ear saying, "Don't tariff things that we
can't do." So again, I'm a sci-fi
writer. I am talking to you about what
could be true. Uh, hey Trump, create
instability in the market because what
that's really going to mess with in the
short term is it's going to mess with
two things. Discretionary spending and
the stock market. Those don't really
matter. As long as we've got like the
core core things, we're going to be fine
because of the um thing that we put on
screen about how much more pain we can
levy against China versus how much pain
they can levy against 500 billion versus
our 100 million. Exactly. So this is
just a very very different game. So, um,
we will see. If it is that, then it's
the tariff hokeyp pokei to confuse the
market to let people know I'm serious
cuz if you go back and listen to the
things that I was saying in the
beginning, and again, I do not prize
myself on being right. But I do want to
know what things I understood well at
the time. And I said Trump is going to
be forced into a position where he's
going to have to show I'm not bluffing.
Mhm. But I do think that most of these
things are either based on discretionary
spending or they're going to be um
short-term. If they are neither
discretionary spending only or they
become long-term, he's [ __ ] up. And if
people want to know where I'm like, uh,
mistake, catastrophic problem being
created, my prediction is if you do
those two things, they're forever and
their blanket, regardless of whether
this is a thing you have to have in your
life. Uh, that's where I'm like, you you
push America for sure into a recession.
You could cause a global recession. That
would obviously have been moronic. And
then it's just like, hey, what you did
was stupid. You either had a dumb aim or
you had a good aim and you executed
poorly. like that's just that's very
simple and clean for me. Um, okay. So,
that is a potential read. And I do think
if you're going to come back out to the
highest level, it is either we're
already in pure emotion or he's playing
that game. He has to knock you off
balance. He has to keep you guessing so
that you know I really will put these
tariffs and that everybody goes, will he
leave them on? Because you've got to get
a major player. It's clearly not China.
He is not he is not interested in easy
reconciliation with China. I will say
that I think he will use far easier
reconciliation with other countries that
he knows he has in a far um he's in a
much better position against them or
America's in a much better position
against them. Uh to show the world, see
look how well I'm treating, let's just
say Japan. Look how well I'm treating
Japan. Japan economy is loving the way
that we are now. We've come to a
balanced agreement. America feels good.
Japan feels good. Don't you want to be
like Japan? And then one by one,
everybody goes, I don't know. Maybe we
really are in a better position if we go
with America. It's like, and some number
of dominoes will fall. I don't think the
answer is zero. I don't think the answer
is 100%. I think some people will choose
China, be like, I'm probably better off
going with them. Some people will choose
America. If you get enough of those
dominoes falling, you can continue to
isolate China. If you can isolate China
and they have but a small handful, like
if this ends up being China, Russia,
Iran, um, and a couple other small
players, like they're going to be in
trouble. Yeah, it seems with his
response is taking the 90-day pause with
all our allied countries, Canada, Euro,
things like that, and ramping them up
against China that this whole thing was
never about America versus Canada or
America versus the EU. Yes, we want to
fade a more fair agreement, but I think
this was a US vina and we just had to do
these other things to get to that point.
Yeah, because I feel like if we would
have went directly to negotiations with
China, it wouldn't have been as good as
if he didn't cause the global economy
and the chaos and then set that table to
now let's negotiate. You see what I just
did? Things like that. Yes. So, I
remember when I was a kid and I was
being picked on, uh, my dad said, "Punch
one kid in the nose really hard." And if
you do that, everybody looks and goes,
"Oh, this isn't the kid you play with."
And I wish I had a cool story where I go
and punch somebody in the nose. I chose
the path of comedy, which also works, by
the way. Uh,
and that is a read on what Trump is
doing. Admittedly, this is one I think
he actually is doing. I think he
completely understands us. Uh, and you
reel the biggest bully on the world
stage and you say, "Nope, America's the
big boy. It's not China." And I think
constitutionally that matches what Trump
is about. And you try to get everybody
else to line up behind that and now you
can get um you can actually begin to put
yourself in a stronger and stronger
situation. But the goal is really a a
true new world order. So when you look
at Canada and Mexico, it's part of the
destabilization strategy. You've got to
throw punches, freak everybody out, let
them know that you're serious. Um, and
if it's like, damn, they'll tariff China
or sorry, they'll tariff Canada, they'll
tariff Mexico, like [ __ ] what are they
going to do to us? But honestly, if I'm
being, and this is me being very
generous, if I'm being generous, I go,
you can't just block China. In fact, if
you're trying to build a map of what has
high predictive validity, a new idea
that's really begun to take shape for me
is that understanding that Trump is
trying to close off backdoor access to
China as well as a front door, that the
um non-tariff trade barriers are a huge
part. Again, whether he's right or
wrong, I'm not commenting on. I'm just
saying this is how I think he's
thinking. This feels the most accurate.
I can look backwards and go, "Oh, if he
believes that there are all these back
doors that he's also got to close, all
of a sudden going after especially
Mexico, going after Mexico makes a lot
of sense." Um, you have to like you can
build it up based on his beliefs that
they're using the southern border to
send um Mexican they're using the
southern border to send Chinese
nationals into the country. Uh, they're
using the southern border to bring in
drugs into the country. They're using
places like Singapore to get uh the
chips that we have embargoed into China
that they're just a whole bunch of
places are using these back doors to
China and I've got to shut all that
down. I've got to let people know that
I'm [ __ ] serious. Uh all of the
sudden it's like, okay, that tracks to
that way of thinking. Again, whether it
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get back to the show. All right, let's
jump to Victor Davis Hans's point. He
was on Piers Morgan. Trump understands
he's got to get along with him. So, what
I'm getting at is all these countries
know what they're doing. And all the
economists, the Wall Street Journal
economists are saying, "Well, trade
deficits don't matter and everything,
but when you talk to these people and
you say, well, all the economists in the
United States say d trade deficits are
either good or irrelevant. Why don't you
run one then? And we'll we'll we'll be
the surplus, the stupid people, and you
be the smart people and run trade
deficit." Nobody thinks that's
compelling. So we got all the economists
up here saying trade deficits are
irrelevant or they're going to hurt us.
But we have all the other countries
economists saying well we don't want to
do what you do. And then the second
thing is we've got we've got 10% of the
people in the country that own 93% of
the market capitalization of the country
and 50% have 1%. And they're looking at
other indicators. They're looking at
93,000 jobs that we didn't expect over
estimates in March. They're looking at
the March inflation rate which was
annualized at 2.6. They're looking at
lower lower oil prices and they don't
they they're not in the same panic as
the PE they understand that stocks are
absolutely important for the health of
the country but they're not as
hysterical or frenzied as this 10% that
um that have lost their minds. I think
that is an absolutely incredible, very
insightful take. Uh at I can't remember
if it was right before this or after
this. He um he gives a breakdown of a
more sensible let's say way forward
where you do things in tanches. You
don't go all the way. So to your earlier
point about okay bro like this could
have been done with a hammer. You didn't
need a sledgehammer. This is crazy.
There's going to be shrapnel. There's
going to be unnecessary damage. What are
you doing? I think there's a very
reasonable argument to be made that uh
yeah this is right idea, shame about the
execution.
Uh that I think
that that may have been far wiser, but
we did not elect that man. That is not
the person um that we have in the Oval
Office. The person that we have is the
sledgehammer guy. And so would it have
been better to roll this out in phases?
Yeah, probably. And you basically um
boil the frog by first saying uh all we
want are zero tariffs. Everybody's on
board with Trump when he talks about we
want tariffs to be reciprocal. Like if
they'll go to zero, we'll go to zero. We
we're just matching. This is this is
about fairness. But he went all the way
to hey there's all these non-tariff
trade barriers. This is all a thing and
these guys are just trying to screw us.
And people are like whoa whoa. You're
tanking the market. You're going so
hard. I get why people are freaking out
like you can't do. It's like you've got
to take people one step at a time. And
so I think that historians are going to
look back on this moment and they're
going to say America had to act. America
had to do something for all the things
we talked about here. Debt uh
Thusidity's trap. We're declining.
China's rising. What do you do about
that? Nobody's just going to accept
defeat. So they had to act. They had to
do something. Um manufacturing getting
hollowed out from a they can choke us
out perspective. forget the even um the
emotional toll of there's so many people
that just they're the the way that they
interface with the world is to use their
hands to do more physical things and
forget that just like you can get choked
out from you can't make the things that
you need to make in a war being the most
obvious one. So you had to act. But was
there a more sensible way where you
could do this? Just start with
reciprocal. Everybody gets that. Nobody
thinks you're crazy. It doesn't sound
unhinged. You can sell that from a PR
perspective. Do that. Get people on your
side. Get your big win with Japan or
whatever and then move to the next one.
So there's that I think is what
historians are going to debate. David
Saxs put out a tweet that's like, "You
really think we'd get this far if he had
asked nice? If he had said please or
pretty please." He's like, "It's never
going to happen." So, that's going to be
the historians's debate. I don't think
that we can see it clearly enough right
now. I think that that one has to be
done in retrospect. But, hey, that's the
internet and everybody's going to debate
it and I'm here for it. I love it the
most. Uh, that is the game that we're
playing. You did talk about autom
automation and bringing like jobs back
in manufacturing. Uh, Victor Davis
Hansen also had a good point on that I
want to bring up. You know, is the idea
of
humans in factories manufacturing stuff
for America first? Is that a fanciful
notion given the way the world is moving
to a more automated place?
No, I don't think so. I think actually
counterintuitive. I think that's what
he's counting on because he looks at
he's closed the border. There's not
going to be 10,000 illegal aliens coming
in again. Our fertility rate is not as
bad as Europe, but it's gone down to
1.65. So, we're a static, if not
declining, population. All these
economists have these ratios for every
billion dollars or so many million jobs,
10 billion, you know, a million jobs,
but I don't believe we've got seven or
eight trillion dollars in commitment,
but maybe two or three already. And that
would represent 10 or 15 million new
jobs. So I think the idea is that if you
train the workforce and you rely heavily
on automation, even with the present
diminished workforce and the
unemployment rate is only 4%, 4.5, you
can be as effective and high-tech. I
don't think he's calling for a bunch
uh just to all line up and put things on
an assembly, you know, just make g
widgets and that's going to pay him $30
an hour. I think he's thinking we've got
the best technology. I've got Silicon
Valley. I've even got people like Bezos
and Zuckerberg, David Saxs. These are
like the war production board of World
War II, you know, Henry Kaiser, Henry
Ford. They're really I don't agree with
them politically, but they're patriotic
and they want to make America. And I
think that's kind of a unique idea for
somebody to enlist all these tech
technocrats. Well, see, again, I don't
know that that is the um idea that Trump
is holding in his head, but that is a
reality. So, you've got AI, it's coming.
you're going to bring all this
manufacturing back, which you have to
do. Even if it does, I hope it does, but
even if it doesn't help the person who
uh was working in a Ford factory in
Michigan, let's say just sorry, the
world's moved on, you're toast. Even if
it doesn't help that person, you still
need to bring the manufacturing back.
Now, if when you look backwards and you
see a never-ending string of everybody
is convinced that the new technology is
going to reduce jobs and then it creates
more jobs, we just couldn't predict what
they were going to be. If you will grant
me as an act of faith that it's going to
create jobs that we can't yet predict,
then it's like, cool. Yes, it's not
you're not back on the assembly line
earning $30 an hour um putting the
widgets together. You still have to
build the widgets here, but it isn't
going to be that. It's going to be
something else that we can't um
understand. But you're certainly way
more likely to create the jobs that we
can't yet predict if you're doing it
in-house, if you're bringing this stuff
back into the country. So, um, you have
to do it
anyway. History tells us that it will
create jobs that we can't yet predict.
Um, now there's obviously the debate
that we talked about many times, which
is what does the world look like when AI
is better than humans at everything?
There's literally not a job that you
wouldn't be better off putting AI into.
that that is uh that's beyond the event
horizon. Yeah. And markets definitely
reacted when this the trade tariff of
hokeyp pokei was at full effect using
your language. Um so when he announced
the pause markets jumped up 10% and with
it was a lot of call volume meaning a
lot of traders have heavily invested
back into the market. AOC put out this
tweet earlier today that said any member
of Congress who purchased stock in the
last 48 hours should probably disclose
that now. I've been hearing some
interesting chatter on the floor.
Disclosure deadline is May 15th. We're
about to learn a few things. It's time
to ban insider trading in Congress.
Yeah, it's not it's not a good look that
insider conversations happening in White
House and now the numbers are popping.
So jump for anybody that's not looking
at the screen. Uh the announcement comes
quite a while after the spike starts to
happen. I mean, how long is that? Like
20 minutes, something like that. 15, 20
minutes. So, it's like somebody knew
something and they moved as quick as
they could. That is bananas. So, yeah,
shout out to our boy Chris Joseph's uh
who does the Pelosi stock Tracker uh who
was one of the early people to start
banging the drum of like what is going
on? Like you would beat the market by a
lot. Yeah. If you were just following
the trades of Nancy Pelosi and a few
other members of Congress. It is pretty
crazy. Uh so yeah, horrific look. Now,
we'll see. Obviously, we don't have any
information uh specifically, but I think
AOC is right that we're we're going to
see as people start disclosing this
stuff. What What breadcrumb trails are
there that when you look at you're just
like obviously they knew something and
they moved on it. It's crazy. Definitely
want to bang that drum here. If you
haven't seen that Chris Joseph episode,
great episode. And you talk about your
stance on insider trading, how we got
here, and some things that we can do to
get out of it. Um, as well as if you
want to sign up for autopilot and follow
and make a bunch of percent on your
portfolio like they did. In other news,
every kid in China will be required to
learn AI starting September 1st and it
will be mandatory for six-year-olds. Six
year olds. Yeah, we were Why wait till
they're six?
Seriously, I don't understand the push
back on this one. Uh, so if if I had a
kid Oh, this is where the push back will
start. Uh, if I had a kid, uh, a
thousand%. I'm going to be starting them
on AI. Legitimately, would I start them
as an infant? Almost certainly, yes.
Because one, I'm going to get an output
of what the AI is saying to it, so I can
make sure that the AI is not saying
something I don't want it to say. Uh,
and I just know how good AI is at
feedback loops. So, how quickly is this
kid learning? What do I have to repeat
with this kid that I would treat the
other kid differently? Uh I think
parents will come to my aid when I say
that from one child to the next your
kids are just wildly different. And so
given how n of one every child is like
you need to train them differently. Uh
when a kid up to the age of seven a
child's brain spends some inordinate
amount of time in what's called theta
wave patterns. Theta waves are basically
like hypnosis. Kids pre7 they're
building a map of the world. they are
sponging up everything which is why uh
it has been said by the person whose
name you're going to remind me of in
seconds uh that it you're better off
having an amazing first three years and
then the whole rest of your life being
difficult than the first three years
being difficult and the whole rest of
your life being easy. Uh that you are
far more likely to build like your a
broken attachment style uh weird
relationship with yourself. like you
just you disregulate in ways that are
terrifying in those early years. And so
if you can have AI that is giving you an
output because you have to watch this,
there's no way I would just blindly
trust AI. But knowing that AI will be
able to pick up on the feedback loops,
train the kid way better than they would
otherwise be in these critical years
where they're really forming their sense
of what the world
is. It's going to be incredible.
Yeah. Incredible. We'll be back to the
show in just a moment, but first, let's
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butcherbox.com/impact. Use code impact
at checkout. And now, let's get back to
the show. In other China news, uh,
popular streamer I show Speed went on a
trip to China. He's been everything from
doing monuments, but this was pretty
cool. He was actually testing out the
new BYD cars that just shows that they
really are living in the future. Not
only the BYD car, but he does their um
flying car. And so I don't I didn't
watch the I've only seen the clips, but
they're like he would only allow it to
take him straight up and straight back
down. So clearly not a lot of trust in
flying cars yet. But
uh yeah, it's uh it is unnerving as
somebody who recognizes that we are in
an economic war with China. It is
unnerving as somebody who understands
like huh uh you need to be prepared for
war uh kinetic war with China to look at
some of the advancements that they have
that we don't have. It is uh it's pretty
fascinating. So yeah, America we got to
innovate. Now, just so that people know,
I am aware of
it. Tariffs reduce innovation. They
don't increase innovation. And so, the
America I want to see, I want to see the
American youth just be like, I'm going
to make a way cooler car. Like, I'm
going to push this as hard and fast as I
can. Like, when I see what Elon is doing
with the um Earthtoearth transportation,
that is so inspiring. Like, this is the
kind of thing that you want to see
America do, man. For anybody uh not
watching, you're gonna want to look at
your screen. This is awesome. He's
proposing rockets instead of traditional
airplane like airplanes. So, they would
replace airplanes with Starship,
promising to get you from New York to
Sydney in under an hour. New York to
Sydney, dude. That's like a 19-hour
flight or some absurd thing like that.
So, instead of layovers and jet lag,
imagine stepping into a rocket, hitting
suborbital space, and then landing
across the planet before your playlist
ends. This is so cool, man. That is wild
to me, dude. Uh the Oh my god, this gets
me so hyped up. This is the kind of
thing that I want. Now, I talk about all
the tariffs and all that, and I know
people get confused and they think that
I want them. I'm in the camp of you have
to do something, but the world I want to
live in is this world. I want to live in
a world where we're competing, where
we're really going ham. The problem is,
I don't think
starting back in the 90s is probably
when this really started to get out of
hand. I don't think we had a clear
enough vision of where this all heads,
what the second and third order
consequences are of not manufacturing,
blah blah blah. So, it's like all those
things are real and they have to be
addressed. But I love like really
getting into a fair fight. Free market
problem is we didn't have a free market.
We had a world where it was like America
was policing the seas. In fact, I'm
preparing for a Douglas Murray episode
right now, and he puts out a really
interesting hypothesis about part of
what you're seeing in the world right
now is a world where after uh the Second
World
War, Europe could go, "Oh, cool. We'll
let America police everything and we can
be in this sort of um not utopian, but
we can be in this world where, hey,
you're just magically protected. you
don't have to spend any money on your
defense and we can all be friends over
here and let America live in the Hobsian
nightmare of uh a power struggle with
other people that are trying to claw
their way to the top and they will
happily take you down. And so that's
really like changed the psyche of
America. Uh it changed the psyche of
Europe for sure. And so in all of that
we allowed countries to have tariffs and
non-trade barriers against us and we're
like nah it's all good. Like we want
these economies to rebuild. We want the
cheap stuff from around the world. We
want to eat cheap flat screens. And so
for a long time it worked and it works
until it doesn't and then uh you find
yourself in Thusidity Trap. So uh it it
is a complicated mess, but emotionally
if you want to know where I'm at, I
don't want to be a China hawk. Like I
want to I want to be in a battle where
it's like they're doing cool stuff,
we're doing cool stuff, and everybody's
winning. We're just not in that world
right now. And we do it with other
countries. Japan does a lot of cool
things that we then we capitalize on.
South Korea does it. So I have an
optimistic hope that through this you
say optimistic hope. Hope okay. That
through all of this China and the US
realize we're better off teaming up and
fighting this meteorite that is AI
versus trying to have a dick measuring
contest about who can have the biggest
dar.
Not gonna happen. Not gonna happen. Not
gonna happen. No. I mean until we start
augmenting the human mind human nature
human but for now yeah 100%. And so it's
like nobody wants to be number two.
China doesn't want to be number two.
America doesn't want to be number two.
And somebody else if we win into like
kumbaya mode somebody else is going to
use that opportunity. I mean mind readad
Putin. What's he doing? Is it just fear
of NATO or is it NATO as cover story for
I want the territory back? I mean,
dude, if you want a glimpse into human
nature, one of the books you need to
read is
Minecom. It is distressing. He dude,
Hitler was
like, I'm looking at America and I'm
like, they just keep expanding into
these new areas, but where are we going
to
expand?
Russia. Russia's going to be I mean,
specifically like the Ukraine is going
to be our American dream. And we're
going to be like, "Hey, you want a farm?
Move to the Ukraine. We want to settle
it. Come on. It's going to be great."
If it had worked, okay, this is really
gross. If it had worked, that would have
been
so powerful for Germany. Gross, icky,
hate, disgusting, terrible. I want to be
real [ __ ] clear.
But for
Germany, you get the American
dream. It's bananas. So once you
understand like, uhoh, this is a thing
people do. They go, "I want your shit."
And they'll other you real fast and they
will take your [ __ ] And
that's that's the world, dude. Give me
what's the push back on that? Are you
just like, "Yeah, agreed." Or if if
you're agreed, what what does the
community say? Like what is the takedown
of that? Where what am I blind to? I
think that people want peace. They want
a society where only if they're
physically exhausted. Only if they're
physically exhausted. Ah, that's
slightly true. Here, here's how it plays
out. It starts as economic
warfare. Had it not been for the Treaty
of Versailles, you don't get World War
II. But you put Germany in a position
where it was like, well, we can't do
this. Sound familiar? And so now all of
a sudden, Germany's like, yeah, we're
not paying that debt. [ __ ] you. What are
you going to do about it? And oh, by the
way, you said that we had military caps.
We've been lying to you the whole time.
We've been amassing a mahusive army.
What are you gonna do about it? Uh, you
say that we can't invade Poland. What
are you going to do about it? And it
just escalates, escalates until I'm mad
as hell and I won't take it anymore. And
you punch back and now you're in World
War II. And it's like, if only if only
Drew, I didn't look back in history and
see a neverending string of that. And
hey, I'm perfectly happy to stare and
this this is what I want to talk to um
Douglas Murray about. I guess you guys
will all get to see if I'm able to pull
this off.
Um when I look at America, read about
Pulk, President Pulk. Dear
Mexico, I just took all the Native
American [ __ ] and now I want your [ __ ]
And he took it. and our own generals
were like, "Uh, this is a stain on
America that we'll never be able to wash
off." We washed it off. Most kids don't
even know we did it. Yeah, I do. So, um,
it's like, yeah, but now America exists
and we built it and it's rad and I don't
plan to give an inch of it back. And if
Mexico invaded, I would fight as if they
were China invading. Yeah, I'm not
standing for that. But we [ __ ] took
it with might.
Uh, Israel, Gaza. Here's the really
uncomfortable part. Drew, read about the
formation the formation of Israel. I get
why they did it. I probably would have
done the same thing. You just you
literally tried to exterminate us. Like
actual let there be no more Jewish DNA
on the planet.
Uh, if you said let there be no, I'm
basically German and Dutch. If you said
let there be no more German and Dutch
DNA, I'd be like, uh, nope. This is
where we fight and I get it. But at some
point you start going, "Hey guys, if
enough of us move
here, we become far more politically
power. Let's just we become far more
economically powerful." So, you're going
to have to listen to us because there's
so many of us here. And then do we
translate that into um political power?
There's so many of us here. Uh, dear UK,
look how many Muslims are moving to your
country. It's pretty good strat. It's
what people do. If they want something,
they can take it by force or they can
just win culturally. That's what Israel
did. So, uh, it's pretty impressive. You
got to be like, "Hey, kudos. That [ __ ]
happened in the [ __ ] 40s." Like, this
was not 700 years ago. This was this is
in the 40s, man. This is less than 100
years ago. And they did it. They pulled
it off. Uh so what do you do with that?
They built Israel. It's pretty
rad. You try to invade them. They're
going to
respond. But at the same time, they did
a thing. So it's I don't know what to do
that because Drew, if China tried to
roll up, I'm going to feel some kind of
I'm going to respond violently. Okay,
let's start with that. I have I am on
record. Countries need to protect their
culture.
So if Mexico is like, "We're taking this
[ __ ] back one immigrant at a time." I'm
like, "Assimilate. Assimilate." I feel
strongly. You need to
assimilate. What What do you do with
that? That That is life. This is the
[ __ ] messiness of life.
I don't even of history because 85% of
history is I want your [ __ ] So I'm
going to come get it. And that's how
things used to be settled. All right.
All right, everybody. If you're not
joining us for the lives, you are going
to want to. Here is a highlight from
today's live. There's probably simpler
explanations, but there was an island, I
believe in Japan, where they were
bringing this group of monkeys, sweet
potatoes, and they were dropping them on
the beach for the monkeys to grab and
eat the sweet potatoes. And they get
covered in sand, and the monkeys hate
the sand on it, try to brush it off, all
that. One of the monkeys realizes, "Oh,
wait a second. you can uh wash this off
in the water. So, it starts washing it
off and then eating the sweet potato and
then it goes and shows another one of
the monkeys that you can do this and
then that monkey shows somebody else and
then other monkeys just notice that
they're doing it. And once a hundred
monkeys are washing their sweet
potatoes randomly, another island where
they had never washed sweet potatoes
start washing sweet potatoes. And so,
uh, the people looking at this, again, I
don't know that I buy this. I'm just
putting your at least there's some
people that would agree with you about
the cultural subconscious.
Uh, they were like, "Oh, there's you. I
don't know if we're emitting some sort
of frequency or what we're doing, but
um, people that are, you know, they've
had no contact whatsoever suddenly start
doing the same thing once it hit a
certain number, uh, of them doing the
same thing." Uh there's a very famous
quote from Michael Jackson who I think
it was beat it. Uh who was like calls
Quincy Jones up and like we have to
record the song tonight and it was like
2 am like why the [ __ ] do we have to
record it tonight? He's like because if
we don't Prince is going to and he's
like ideas just get out into the ether
and once it happens then people go with
it. Now that one's easier for me to buy
because it's just like we're all
influenced by the culture and so certain
creative people are going to bounce off
the ideas in very similar ways. Anyway,
that one's easier for me to come up with
an explanation for the monkey thing just
strikes me as either coincidence or
somebody secretly is showing these
monkeys like [ __ ] just wash it
off. But they're dropping them off.
Humans are on the [ __ ] island. I went
on a date one time with a girl and she
was a flat earther and