Kind: captions
Language: en
Tariff madness continues as markets
bounce back a little. 70 countries line
up to negotiate, but China ain't one of
them. Instead, vowing to restrict rare
earth metals from everyone. Scotas green
lights deportation, scientists go full
Jurassic Park and Kawasaki premieres a
robotic horse prototype that brings all
new meaning to My Little Pony. Drew,
how's your portfolio? You buying the
dip? Buying the dip. There it is.
Market's on sale. Gota got to do it,
man. You know, when the the fun
continues, when your favorite pair of
jeans are 20% off, you get excited. I'm
looking at that same way my stocks until
the entire world market implodes and
we're in a recession. It gets a lot
harder to be excited. So, there's a new
bottom and then it's like, okay, now my
portfolio is on sale. Yes. Uh, speaking
of markets, they bounce back slightly,
opening at 3%. So, a lot of the loss
from last week eaten, but as of the time
of this recording, they're starting to
be flat versus slightly down. Yeah, I
would be very surpris I mean listen,
there could be enough good news coming
out about the negotiations that we found
the bottom. I doubt it. This feels like
we are still um yet to see how things
are going to play out between the US and
China. The US and China is the real play
here. Um yeah, so we'll see. There's an
interesting tweet that came from Mr.
Beast about his uh Coco and how that's
impacting him. Uh that is um an
interesting place to start. So, let's
take a look at it. Uh, he said,
"Ironically, because of all the new
tariffs, it's now way cheaper to make
our chocolate bars we sell globally, not
in America, because other countries
don't have 20% tariff on our cogs." Uh,
and then the um the feed proceeded to go
crazy. You need to give more
information. This sounds very
disingenuous and misleading. I think if
he had changed one word, people would
have understood it. uh if he had said
ingredients instead of cogs, people
would understand because what he's
saying is if we were in America and we
were importing all this stuff from
foreign countries that are now going to
have tariffs on them, our costs would
have gone way up. But because we're
outside of the US selling to a lot of
places outside of the US, um we don't
get the tariffs on our ingredients, just
as a simple way to say it. So this is
where the tariff game gets complicated.
I thought that this was an interesting
window. It's obviously just one company.
It's a company that's already
manufacturing outside of the country.
So, of course, um this is why you want
to see as much nuance as possible to
these tariff policies, which we are not
getting nuance. We've talked endlessly
about it. We can go into more again why
he's not doing it in that way, or at
least my generous read as Destiny thinks
that I'm overly generous.
Um but understanding that you're going
to see a lot of things like this. And
what would be great is if he were going
in and being a little bit more careful
and saying, "Okay, for things like cocoa
that we don't manufacture in the US. Um,
how do we make sure that those things
aren't getting caught up in all of
this?" And I think the fact that he
isn't doing that, a generous
interpretation would be um that he's
playing a different game. And this is
why I say listen to Scott Besson and
Howard Leutnik. You're going to get a
far clearer sense of what's going on. uh
and Besson did a couple of interviews
this um on Monday that I thought were
really useful in terms of what's going
on here in terms of Trump treating this
treating tariffs as adding this third
layer to the utility of a tariff uh not
just to u bring manufacturing back to
the US not just to address trade
imbalances but also as a negotiating
tactic and that's what uh drum Besson is
beating and he's saying listen 70
countries ries sometimes he said up to
at one point he said 70 another so call
it somewhere around there countries
lining up to come and have a
conversation with the US Trump has very
clearly telegraphed that if you come
faster you're going to get a better deal
than if you wait uh Bessant had signaled
previously at the end of last week that
hey chill don't retaliate that is not
going to be a good play and history
tells us that that is
true but and I don't want to start
conflating all these we want to take
them one at a time. But something that
we will talk about a little bit later in
the episode is China's just playing a
different game. Yeah. And to blind
yourself to the game that China's
playing would be a mistake. Yeah. I want
to dive into this Mr. Beast though
because we seen somebody similar say
something in our live where they were in
I think it was either Fiji or Vietnam
where they were saying these tariffs can
quite literally bankrupt me. I'll have
to fire my seven employees. We'll have
to cut back. We'll have to scale down.
So I understand you know big boat
America in 30 years we're going to love
this policy. But what do you say to the
small businesses to the people that will
get caught up quite frankly in the
crossfire of this tariff war? The
reality is that much like evolution does
not care about any one person uh
evolution does not care about an entire
generation but ultimately on a long
enough timeline as they say the long arc
of history bends towards justice. But
that tell that to anybody in Gaza right
now certainly doesn't feel like it. Uh
tell that to Ukrainians it doesn't
matter even if on a long enough timeline
that is true. So the same with tariffs
is there is going to be
devastation. Trump is using this as a
wrecking ball. Trump is trying to seow
chaos. This is a big part of the reason
that I try to get people to listen to
Bessant. He's trying to speak directly
to our allies and adversaries quite
frankly. And he's telling them, listen,
don't retaliate. That's just going to
make things escalate. He's giving us the
way to read Trump. I get it. I'm asking
you to effectively swallow your pride
for a minute. But if you fail to
acknowledge the US
as arguably the most important economy
because of how much of our GDP is based
on purchases, but even if you're only
going to give me second place, which I
think would be foolish, but even if uh
to ignore our standing in the world as
being that important would be a far
bigger mistake for them than it is for
us. uh which is something that Besson
has tried to be very very direct on
which is the country that is the debtor
actually fares better in a trade war
because people are relying on them.
They're selling in to them. We are the
country that people sell into. Uh you
ignore that at your own peril. But all
of this, this great power war is
just they blind themselves
intentionally or
unintentionally to the people that are
going to get trampled. In fact, the
right way to think of this is this is
Godzilla versus Mothra. And sure, entire
cities are going to get obliterated, but
it's not like they're doing it on
purpose, but they need somewhere to
fight. And so, it's just how it's going
to be. And I I am merely trying to
describe what is. I am not trying to be
callous. I understand that. I understand
like if I were back at Quest right now,
whoa, like this would really be
something that would be disruptive. And
so,
um, I'm merely trying to step out of the
fray, describe the process that is
happening rather than saying, "Oh, this
is how it ought to be."
Um, I think and I've I've said this many
many times. I think Ray Dallio's
emotional veilance on this whole thing
is the right thing, which is I don't
know how this is going to play out. This
is an insanely complicated system. All I
can do is tell you you had to do
something because there there is this
loop, the debt cycle, the big debt cycle
that Rey has written about extensively
that you can look back 500 years and you
can see this cycle play out over and
over and over eternally tied to debt.
And so we are just at a point where we
have an unsustainable debt that we've
already accumulated that is accumulating
at an unsustainable rate and you have
other countries, China, Chief among
them, that are overly reliant on our own
debt. And so you get in this precarious
situation where it's not sustainable for
anybody. This moment was going to happen
and it only happens about once in a
lifetime, maybe a little bit less. It's
probably closer to averaging like 125,
150 years. So, it would be all too easy
to grow up in a time where you just read
about this and we all happen to be
living through this moment and the odds
of us living through it again are
effectively zero. So, all of us are
going to get to experience this once, it
will be completely foreign to everybody
that's going through it. And yet, if you
look back in history, there are a ton of
clues as to why we're here, how this is
going to play out, um, and why Trump
would be so hellbent to gain leverage
now because the US economy is a melting
ice cream cone. Once you understand
that, our status is the world reserve
currency is a melting ice cream cone.
Our debt melting ice cream cone. Like,
you just you can't survive here for
long. And so, um, he's taken a couple
big licks to stop the ice cream from
dripping all over our hand. Uh, but the
reality is that you have to do something
otherwise termination is inevitable like
at least this maybe forestalls it for a
meaningful amount of time. Maybe not,
maybe it accelerates it. I want to be
very clear. I do not look into this
future and go, "Oh, this is obvious." I
am just trying to paint a picture of
um you can take the Trump is madman bet.
It just does not feel accurate to me.
Trump may be wrong, but I don't think
he's just acting crazy. There's a reason
he's been banging this drum for 40
years. Yeah. And he put out a tweet on
Truth Social talking about how people
are already starting to make a deal. So,
this is directly from Trump on the Truth
Social. I had a great call with the
acting president of South Korea. We
talked about their tremendous and
unsustainable surplus, tariffs, ship
building, large-scale purchase of US
LMG, their joint venture in an Alaskan
pipeline, and payment for the big-time
military protection we provide to South
Korea. They began these military
payments during my first term, billions
of dollars, but sleepy Joe Biden, for
reasons unknown, terminated the deal.
That was a shocker to all. In any event,
we have the confines and probability of
a great deal for both countries. Their
top team is on a plane headed to the US,
and things are looking good. We are
likewise dealing with many other
countries, all of whom want to make a
deal with the United States. Like with
South Korea, we are bringing up other
subjects that are not covered by
tariffs, trade and tariffs, and getting
them negotiated. Also, one-stop shopping
is a beautiful and efficient process.
China also wants to make a deal badly,
but they don't know how to get it
started. We are waiting for their call.
It would happen. God bless the USA. We
really are in a very powerful position.
And it doesn't mean that when you flex
that muscle, you don't create further
problems for you down the line. But we
are an incredible economic and military
force. That is one of the base
assumptions that gives you the highest
predictive validity of why Donald Trump
is acting the way that he's acting. He's
like, "Hold on a second. We're this
massive economy. We are this incredible
global superpower militarily. We've been
protecting everybody." You saw the
leaked comments from uh Vice President
Vance who was saying, "Wait, why are we
dealing with the Houthies when only 3%
of our trade goes through here? Like, we
won't even notice this." Uh you're doing
it to help your allies, which we do all
around the world. Now, it's problems
with empire. So, let's set that aside
for a second. But Trump is coming in and
saying, "I'm going to be recognized for
that. I'm going to get my just
desserts." Now whether he is doing it
intuitively, meaning it's just the guy
that rose to power now is the guy that
just internalized it's not fair and I'm
not saying that he's being some
political genius strategist. It may be
that um when the student is ready, the
teacher will appear. When the populace
is ready, the populist leader will
appear. And the guy that just has this
resentment to I can't believe Japan is
keeping me out. I can't believe they
rejected my potatoes. I can't believe
that China won't let Facebook in, but
we've got to deal with Tik Tok. Right?
He may just have like a fairness
algorithm running in his brain that's
making him lash out and be angry and he
wants America to um be respected on the
global stage. Fine. But this is the
result of an economic setup that happens
throughout history in a cycle. It is
knowable. It is predictable. Radalio has
been trying to document this and scream
from the rooftops. This is coming. He's
been saying it literally for years and
now it's here. And so without people
needing to believe that Trump is a
genius, you want to understand what is
that impulse that appears in the human
mind that makes this so predictable. And
when you are a declining power who goes,
how did we end up here? Why are we
declining? and you see that you've got
um these massive debts, you start asking
yourself, "Wait a second, I'm not the
one that got us in all this trouble with
the debts. Why are we here?" It is very
hard to turn the mirror and look at
yourself and say, "Oh, this is a result
of a lot of bad policies. This is a
result of uh I hate to say it, but when
you've got more entitlements than you
have tax dollars coming in, you find
yourself in this position." And this is
every reserve currency ever realizes
that they can keep the party going for a
distressingly long time by
um raising foreign capital. Okay? So
selling debt and you bring that foreign
capital in you can also because you're
the reserve currency you can export all
of your inflation to the whole world.
And so as you realize, oh my god, this
works and you push it a little, there's
no response. Push it a little. Nobody
says anything. You push it and push it
and push it. And when you look at the
graph of the M2 chart, it's comical.
It's like for decades, we were pretty
judicious about it. And then all of a
sudden, five years ago, we go berserk.
And that's when Ry started going, I know
this movie. I've seen it play out. And
so that's the backdrop. And Ry, in fact,
had a tweet. I don't know if we have it
ready to pull up, but he had a tweet
where he's like, uh, please don't make
the mistake of thinking that this is
just about tariffs. This is about the
economic conditions that I've just
walked us through. And that's the real
thing that's happening right now. And to
think that this is just a game of tariff
is to miss the um conditions that give
rise to populism in the first place. And
he lays out three factors. the three
factors. You've got it here. So, I'll
try it from memory and we'll see if I
can't then we can go back. It's um
internal forces. So, left versus right.
And that order is breaking down as he
says because he's talking about this is
a moment where these three forces break
apart. The the domestic political order
is breaking down. Yep. And then you've
got the international political order is
breaking down and then you've got debt
that reaches unsustainable levels. And
so those three things become this
cocktail that leads to this moment. And
now the licking of the ice cream cone,
trying to re-establish an order that
unfortunately like you get rid of a lot
of the available ice cream by doing it,
but it's like I'm going to be the one
that's going to capture all this ice
cream yumminess. And so you like go ham
on it for a minute. Now it's like for a
second it doesn't look like it's melting
anymore. Oh, it still is. And you just
ate a ton of your ice cream cone. Uh but
for a second you reestablish an order.
And that is what we're doing now.
Eventually, you always lose.
And our I guess the ice cream in the the
sun in this scenario, the antagonist in
this story, China, is definitely not uh
laying down. The antagonist is debt. The
antagonist is human psychology. We're
going to pin it on China, but in this
like we were China at the end of World
War II. And what did we say? Sorry guys,
you're going to do it our way. And so,
unfortunately, every empire experiences
both ends of the spectrum. You become
the dominant force because you're the
rising power. Just luck, circumstances,
good decisions, all of it. They lead to,
oh, at the end of World War II, we were
largely protected from the actual
bombardments. Everybody was borrowing
money from us. We were already a rising
economic power. And suddenly, you know,
at the end of World War II, we are just
an undeniable force. And while it's not
a simple process, but we win the
negotiations of Brett and Woods,
everybody agrees, okay, Jesus, I guess
there's nothing else to do. We've all
borrowed so much money from them anyway.
And they're in a position to continue to
manufacture and help all of us get back
on our feet. So, yeah, fine. Like, they
become as long as they're good people,
we're okay with it. And for 70 or 80
years, it was magically delicious. and
everybody benefited except the working
class in America and they were the ones
that slowly over time began losing. But
you really didn't hear people freak out
about it until the 1990s. And that's
when it was like, "Hold on a second.
When you're letting China into the WTO,
now we've got a problem." Because people
don't understand how this game plays
out. They're like, "It is so
self-evident that now this idea of
comparative advantage, let them eat flat
screens. You're going to make all of my
goods cheaper for sure, but you're going
to hand me back Detroit as this ghost
town of violence." Yeah. At what cost?
Um, with the retalatory tariffs, the
back and forth of China slap, a 34%
additional tariffs. Now, all in, we're
at 104% against tariffs against China.
Um, they also are now restricting their
export to the seven rare earth metals to
all countries, but they're really saying
so that way nobody can then trade with
the US. Okay, this is a really
interesting point. Uh, there's two
things going on here. So you've got a
difference in timeline, so playing two
different games. And then you have both
countries trying to figure out how they
stop leakage. So if you're China and
rare earth metals are going to our
allies, well then we're going to buy
from the allies, just like people accuse
China of doing with the semiconductors
that we've supposedly outlawed. And all
of a sudden, you look at Singapore and
it's like, hold on a second. Singapore
buys like the most chips ever and
they've got like a population of 45,000.
It's not that comical, but it's pretty
close. So, it's like, okay, the odds
that those are ending up in China,
border on
100%. Uh, China wants to leverage
something that they have, which are the
rare earth metals, and they want to make
sure that they don't go by way of our
allies and make their way back to us.
So, you've got both of us doing these
across the board actions that are
designed to wall things off. And if this
keep keeps escalating, this is exactly
how you end up in a global recession
where it's like there's just you've got
Godzilla and Mothra fighting and
everybody else is getting smashed in the
interim. Now, maybe the most important
thing to understand here is the
difference in timeline. This is
democracy
versus authoritarian rule. And so you've
got the US that has wild policy swings
every two to four years. Mhm. So, it's
very hard to get long-term momentum
going very fast. You're you're basically
constantly tacking back and forth like
you you would on a left, right,
Democrat, Republican, and it's like,
"Okay, wait, we're not going in the
right way." Then you hard the other way.
Ah, it's too far back. Uh, and so it's a
pretty inefficient way forward. Now, it
fights against something like you find
in an authoritarian regime like you're
going to get in China where, if you
think of it this way, it's very helpful.
In the US, we try everything and
something ends up working. But you
diffuse your energy across a lot of
stuff. But just like the human immune
system, the reason that we use sexual
reproduction is it creates variety in
the immune system. So one pathogen is
unlikely to take out the entire
population. Whereas when you like do
monocropping now there's just no genetic
diversity and a single fungus or
parasite can just obliterate the whole
thing because you have one genetic
defense and if something bypasses that,
everybody's toast. Um, that's what China
is doing. It's like top down. We're
going to bet on these very small number
of things. And if something ends up
hitting that small number of things that
they're pursuing, they were efficiently
moving in a direction. But now they just
get attacked. It's all over if they end
up picking the wrong things. Uh, now
China has a recent history of picking
the right things. Yeah. So, and they
certainly have their eye on AI, which
just strikes me as impossible to be
wrong. So, I don't know that we're going
to get a lot out of that, but it's
important to understand that those are
the two things that those are the two
styles of government that are going
head-to-head right now. Um, China's
playing a very long-term game. So, for
them, it's like, okay, well, cutting off
the rare earth metals may not mean a lot
now, but watch as we build massive
energy surpluses. Watch as we build this
gigantic dam that generates a ton of
energy. Watch as we spin up nuclear.
Watch as we spin up coal. Their rate of
energy acquisition is I want to say at
least five times faster than ours. If
that isn't literally true, it is
directionally correct. I my
understanding is we're going from like
one to two and they're going from like
10 to 13. So it's like yo, we are uh
we're way behind and with AI that is
going to matter a lot. So maybe this
doesn't choke us out fast, but over the
long term, it could really matter in 10
years, 15 years when the rate that you
have to make these chips is just
unimaginable to today's audience. Yeah.
And in our episode with Moga Dot, you
guys kind of touch on that, how we put
that embargo on chips and then China
said, "Okay, they took a step back,
started making their own factories,
implement their own chips." I'm like,
"You got us now, but in six to eight
years, the best chips are now going to
be made internally. We don't have to
worry about that." Dude, they're about
to bring that [ __ ] online. That's like a
2026 thing. So, woo buddy, be careful
what you wish for. And that's the game
that you're playing. Now, whatever China
tries to do to us. Like, let's say that
we lose the tariff battle, we get
knocked for six, uh, it's not like we
just go away. We're way too big for
that. We are not England where it's like
all of our gains were done through
essentially acquisition. So, we're
spread out. Our population is spread out
all over the globe, but our home
populace is say only 45 million people.
America's like 350 million. I mean, once
you start factoring in all the
undocumented illegal immigrants that we
have, uh, we got a lot. So, you're not
going to see that kind of I would
prognosticate. You won't see that kind
of disappearance the way that England
just fell off of the map of relevance.
Uh, you won't see that with America.
Copy. And so I feel like we outlined the
small business. We outlined the kind of
USV China and this all but there's one
thing that kind of keeps talked about
but we don't really kind of drill down
in it and that is what is actually
coming back. So I understand that we
want to bring manufacturing back but
with this robot boom on the horizon. We
Tesla announced that they're going to
have a Legion 6,000 of Optimus robots in
production ready to go this year. Are we
really going to bring back? We're
probably not going to bring back
traditional manufacturing, but what is
actually coming back? What is the
positive result that we want at the end
of this tariff game? We'll get back to
the show in a moment, but first, I want
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Now, let's get back to the show. Please
make sure at the end of this that we
show that meme, the AI generated meme of
American factory workers. I really want
to uh get get my fellow Americans uh on
board. Okay, so here is the game.
This so this is not what's going to be
happening. Okay. So, the reason I want
to show this though is for uh an entire
fractal. Um, for anybody that's just
listening and not watching, it shows a
bunch of very lethargic, very slowm
moving, very obese for the most part
American workers and they're moving
slowly and awkwardly and don't really
know what they're doing compared to um
the just insane highlevel not only
efficient workers in China but
incredibly skilled workers as Tim Cook
made very clear and then at the end it
says make America great again. Chinese
trolls dude this well I'm not even sure
that that was made by somebody in China.
I would be very interested to see that
has such a western sensibility about it
that level of mocking. Um China just
normally gets to business or like
they'll just make the direct threat.
We're prepared to fight any kind of war
that you want. Uh anyway, this is me. I
honestly don't know. It's entirely
possible that they have somebody in
China that made that. But that felt more
to me like America
talking to itself. And I felt something
really visceral when I saw that. And the
thing that I would love to get Americans
on board is like, [ __ ] that. Do not let
that be true. Like don't let it be true
that we have become this disaffected
um lack of pride having
slothaccepceing nation of the Wall-E
people at the end of Wall-E on the
spaceship that have just completely let
go of their um hunger and desire for
greatness. Man, I don't even need you to
want to compete with the rest of the
world. just like wanna be [ __ ]
awesome. And growing up as a kid, and
this was so reflected in our movies of
like, and what I love about cinema of
the 80s was it was a whole bunch of
immigrants. You had Schwarzenegger, you
had Vanam, you had a bunch of directors
from all over the world, accents
everywhere, but they were all
communicating this story of like the
individual pursuing greatness, trying to
be something
extraordinary. And I have always like
I've been so moved by that. so much of
my mental model of what I'm capable of,
what America's capable of. And America
has an idea. I love the idea of America
is a beacon to the people that feel that
way and they want to come here. It's
what I've always referred to as a
foreignb born American. Somebody that
just saw that ideal. I can go there and
test myself against the world and see if
I can make it. There was this old adage,
I don't even know if kids know anymore,
that people used to say about New York,
if you can make it here, you can make it
anywhere. And this idea of there's this
one town in all the world that everybody
comes to find out just how good are you.
That energy, man, as a kid from like po
dunk America. For me, that was so cool.
The thought I could move to a big city
and I could get better and I could prove
to myself that I could really do
something. Like when I saw that meme, I
was like, damn, I feel like that
unfortunately feels like it captures so
much of the energy for me of like how
the American psyche is beginning to
wither.
Um, I just don't want to see it, man.
You will get your lunch eaten by the
person who wants it more and the person
that's willing to put in the time. I've
started um I've talked about this
certainly in the lives, which by the
way, guys, join us for the lives.
They're awesome. They're fun. I know
that sounds terrible to me. Self
promote. Thank you. They're awesome. Uh
I've started doing this thing um where
because I game and because I'm almost
50, uh my hand will hurt so I have to
ice it and I used to do one finger at a
time and I thought, let me just start
putting this in like a big tub of ice.
And it is startlingly painful to the
point where you're like, what? Like how
is it that ice hurts this much? like my
brain is screaming to take my hand out.
And I thought this is good practice of
how long can I leave my hand in. And
they've actually done tests on this
about like if you want to test mental
resilience, they have people submerge
their hand in ice water. It's
fascinating. So doing things like that,
getting your diet right, working out, uh
doing like hard cardio, putting your
your whole body, your hand, whatever in
ice to see like how much pain can
you tolerate? But more importantly, like
can you frame yourself as somebody tough
enough to push through that difficulty?
And it
is incredibly powerful and we're losing
that somehow in the American
subconscious and I worry about that.
Okay, that was all because you asked me
what do people expect to get out of this
and the thing that we have to get out of
this
is you want to be economically strong.
So you need to be disciplined. You can't
spend more money than you're making. You
have to break your reliance on foreign
capital, which is not something that
people talk a lot about in all of this
madness. This is one of the drums that
Ray Dalio is trying to beat trying to
get people to pay attention to. Uh this
isn't just about tariffs. It's about how
much of your your uh debt is owned by a
foreign adversary. Who could? They
probably won't, but they could dump it,
and that would have really traumatic
impact on long-term interest rates. So
anyway, you've got a vulnerability
there. And then also all of your
spending is deficit spending. You're
doing everything through debt and that
is a very precarious situation to find
yourself in. So that's one, you need to
get disciplined economically. Number
two,
you can't pretend that you don't live in
a world of great power politics where
the strong will do as they want and the
weak will suffer as they must. And
so we are in
a tractor beam with China that hopefully
never but could lead to
warfare. The shest way to be invaded is
to be weak. And this is inevitable.
Do you think like if we just keep doing
business as usual, we don't bomb them,
they don't bomb. Okay, read the last I
mean keep it recent. Read the last
thousand years of history. It is a
neverending string of invasions. Just
one after another after another after
another. Like it's history is startling
because it is a forced glimpse into your
own
DNA and where you fall. Are you one of
the people that cowers inside the castle
gates? Uh, are you one of the people
willing to sell your children to avoid
being conquered? Are you one of the
people that will lay down your life to
defend? Are you one of the people that
goes across lands to enslave and
conquer? And that's history just over
and over and over. And we do s history
is so big that we do a terrible job of
pulling out the traits, the human traits
that reveal themselves. When you start
taking a 2,000-y year view of history,
you're like, "Oh, damn." Like this is a
thing. Like humans are like this. Uh so
yeah, uh it it is inevitable. That is
the long and the short of it.
So on the other side of this, we must be
economically and militarily strong. And
are the things that Trump is doing the
right things? I don't know because I
don't know if they're going to work. I
just know you have to do something. And
so we're coming off the back of four
years of making the problem worse. And
what we're doing now is like drinking
baking soda. And when you drink baking
soda, it will either if you're feeling
nauseous.
If you drink baking soda, it either
makes you vomit and then your stomach
settles or it settles your stomach and
your stomach settles. But one of two
things is going to happen. You're either
about to barf or like it's going to be
the thing you needed to neutralize
whatever is upsetting your stomach.
So that's where we're at. I don't know
if this is just an accelerant that is
going to um spark a global recession or
if this is not only addressing the
problem that absolutely had to be
addressed or if it's addressing the
problem that absolutely had to be
addressed in a way that will accelerate
it and make the problem arrive much much
faster in in 2025 26 27 insert time
frame here does it really make sense for
China to invade because to me it's like
they're I cannot fathom a universe in
which they invade the US but I can
imagine a world in which they invade
Taiwan.
So, this is a question. Now, they might
be able to sidestep the need to invade
Taiwan if they're able to spin up the
semiconductors and they feel like uh
we're able to make these ourselves, we
don't care anymore. This move that we
just made by uh bogarding the rare earth
metals, um between that and the ability
to make the best chips on planet Earth,
nah, let them do whatever they want. We
don't care anymore.
Um, but maybe not. And this is all going
to come down to China doesn't want you
to think their economy is weakened, but
is it? Uh, is China just stimulating,
stimulating,
stimulating? If it is, how long can they
do it for? If it's as long as the US was
able to do from say 1971 until now, it's
like they got a lot of room to play,
man. Uh the problem is that they don't
have the purchasing power that we have.
So how badly will it hurt them if we are
able to not only pull away the American
economy from them but also create allies
that then pull their economies away from
them because they've made all these
goods. If America pulls back, that's uh
we stop buying Chinese goods. China goes
into a deflationary spiral. One of the
ways they will try to combat that is to
sell to other allies. But if those
allies like hold on, we either can't
because we now have a treaty with
America that says that we can't. Uh
technically, I don't think it'd be a
treaty, but an agreement with America
that says that we can't or we don't want
to upset that because like in the case
of North South Korea that they have
military protections. So South Korea is
like, "Huh, we don't have the greatest
history with China. I don't really want
to be on the hook uh for my own
military. I'd much rather the US
military be able to protect me. So, will
I forgo the maybe of things with China
for the yes of America?" Yes. And so now
China's like, "Okay, well, we have one
less place where we can avoid our
deflationary spiral." And so that's
going to be the game is everybody's
trying to scramble, get their allies and
say, "Okay, uh, this is a multi-polar
world. I've got all these people. You've
got all those people." Now that becomes
a game of is then everybody fine? If
then everybody's fine, cool. Okay, we've
we've bought ourselves enough time to
get to at least the technological
singularity where if one country wins
the AI race, then all bets are off
because they will
immediately they will immediately have
the opportunity to launch a soulcrushing
cyber attack on any country that they
want. Now, keep in mind when we were the
only ones that had nuclear weapons, we
didn't do it. So, it doesn't mean that
just because, let's say, China gets to
ASI, artificial super intelligence,
first, it doesn't mean that they're
going to launch an attack. Maybe they're
No, no, no. Guys, we've been telling you
from the beginning, we want our sphere
of influence. That's it. You guys have
yours. We're not empire. Uh, we don't
pursue empire. We're not imperialistic
the way that you guys are. We've tried
to tell you that forever. You didn't
trust us. you didn't listen, but it
really is true. Let us live our life. We
want to do things through cooperation.
We don't want to try to control the
hope. We'll see. I have no idea. Uh but
I like to think that if America had ASI
that we would be like we were when we
were the only ones with nuclear weapons,
that we chill, that we want to see the
world thrive. And the only reason that
we're acting out right now is because
the ice cream cone is melting down our
arm. And if we can stabilize that, then
hopefully we go back to the very good,
very friendly, very encouraging behavior
that we had at the end of World War II.
It's probably polyiana, but it is a
possibility.
Copy. All right. In other news, in
Scotas news, they have ruled that the
deportations that Trump has been sending
uh Venezuelan gang members to El
Salvador can continue. Let's get the
read from NPR. The US Supreme Court is
narrowly backing the Trump
administration's efforts to continue
deporting Venezuelan migrants to El
Salvador. President Trump claims they
are gang members. The high court vote
was 5 to4. Conservative Justice Amy
Coney Barrett sided with three liberal
justices. The ruling means President
Trump can rely on the rarely used
wartime power, the Alien Enemies Act, to
deport people. NPR's Human Bust reports.
The court did set a limit. The justices
did say people need to have adequate
notice of their removal and an
opportunity to contest it. The judges
also sided with the government in
arguing any disputes need to be
individually filed in the states where
people are held. The ACLU and other
organizations sued in Washington DC and
sought to represent all people who may
be subject to the Alien Enemies Act in
the US. What is your read on the Supreme
Court justice allowing the controversial
deportations to continue? We have
clarity. So ultimately that's what we
need. The the point of the court system
as envisioned by the framers of the
constitution was that uh not that they
would try to impose their own thinking
but that they would do their best to
interpret the intentions of the founders
to say okay given that the world changes
fast and it's very difficult to like
write down all these edge cases this is
what we think was meant. Um the number
of times that the federalist papers are
quoted in Supreme Court decisions is
like that over a hundred uh and the rate
at which they're quoting it if I
remember correctly is increasing. So we
have our constitution, we have documents
that were meant to explain beat by beat
what the constitution was attempting to
do. And then we have the judiciary not
as people who are meant to make new
laws. They are merely meant to be the
most
um like
detached apolitical entity to say okay
this is our read on the situation. Now
we all know that there's the human mind
is has a frame of reference. They are
appointed by one side of the aisle or
the other. So there's a reason that you
can usually see the stuff break along
political lines. I don't want to be
naive to that. But their role is really
to remove themselves from that and say
this is what I believe the intention
was. And so ultimately what you turn to
the Supreme Court for is clarity. And
here we have clarity. Now what do I
personally think about this?
Um I'm not super close to this problem.
I honestly haven't spent a lot of time
on it, but I will default to uh culture
matters. It matters a lot. We had an
open border that is one even taking the
most like just sort of everyday approach
to this. You cannot let people in at
that rate without any sort of
qualification as to whether these are
going to be the kind of people that are
coming here specifically because they
felt the beacon of individualized
American opportunity. Let me come and
test myself against it. Like when people
say that, oh, we're a nation of
immigrants. Yeah, bro. We were a nation
of immigrants when you came here and it
was like no social safety net. You were
like, I might get killed by uh exposure.
I might get killed by Native Americans.
I might get killed by other [ __ ]
crazy psychopaths in my own state. Read
about Massachusetts. Those kids didn't
play in the early days. Um, all of that
stuff is when we became that group of
immigrants. So it was like if you got
called to be here you really want you
were prepared to be tested and all you
wanted was a shot like give me a shot
when you have immense entitlements and
you send up the flag that says we're
both the place where you can come and
succeed if you win and if you fail we
got you. So you set up something that is
open to madness, the abuse being uh
worked against you. And then the other
side of this is you have foreign
adversaries who are like, "Bet, I'm
going to send a bunch of people in." So
uh the thing that often gets cited, and
I think rightly so, is that all of the
911 hijackers came in through the
southern border. So um you know, it's
already happened once. Will it keep
happening? And are there gang members
that have been sent over here on behalf
of a foreign entity? It's certainly
possible. And so you are um you elect a
president to make those kind of
decisions. The president has told you
this is what I think it is. Obviously,
if you disagree, you should speak the
hell up. Uh and you should vote against
him if you think that he's out of
pocket. And then you turn to the
judiciary to go, is what he's doing
okay? Like does this actually line up?
Uh, and so you have your answers. Nice.
Uh, Pete Hexath got a great answer um
during the Netanyahu President Trump
press conference yesterday where he
signaled for a trillion dollar
Department of Defense budget first ever.
Don't worry everybody, we're going to
we're going to lower these expenses. PS.
I would like a trillion dollars. But
despite that, uh, we have a tremendous
military. That was a very small portion
because we rebuilt the military during
my first term and uh we uh we have great
uh great things happening with our
military. We also uh essentially
approved a budget which is in the
facility you'll like to hear this of a
trillion dollars $1
trillion and nobody's seen anything like
it. We have to build our military and
we're very costconscious, but the
military is something that we have to
build and we have to be strong because
you got a lot of bad forces out there
now. So, we're going to be approving a
budget. The uh and I'm proud to say
actually the biggest one we've ever done
for the military. We're cutting other
things that were uh under Doge but under
a lot of other when you look at uh a
woman getting $2 billion for
environmental and it had nothing to do
with environmental and they had $100 in
the bank and they give her two billion.
Many many of those cases all that stuff
is going to be cut out. $1 trillion.
Nobody's ever seen nothing like it.
Okay. We were talking about debt. We
we're going to war because we can't
afford these bills. People can't afford
groceries. Egg prices was $15 a month
ago, but we got a trillion dollars to
pay for guns to a war that we're not
even supposed to be fighting. Help me
break that down. Well, first of all, you
don't have that trillion dollars. You
are already in debt. Uh but you already
had this budgeted at like what 850 850
billion I think. So um I mean look,
what's another 150 months? Well, it's a
lot and we should not do this lightly
and so I won't lie. I don't like the way
this feels from the perspective
of show me how much you've actually
reduced the budget annually through the
Doge efforts and then say and uh we're
going to take I mean is this 100% of
what they saved? Is this 200% of what
they saved? Is this 50%? I have no idea.
Uh but I want to see that so that as a
voter I can say either yes, I'm cool.
Good. I like that. move that from
whatever you moved it from to the
military because listen, I'm a what
would they call me? A China hawk. Like
I'm worried about China. Whatever that
makes me, that makes me. And um I'm also
worried about America to be really
honest with you. I think we are in a
tractor beam. I think it is a two-way
tractor beam. I think there is something
in the architecture of the human mind
that leads to this moment. I want to be
very clear. This is not a China bad guy.
We're a good guy. This is [ __ ] human
nature is crazy and very predictable.
And this is a tractor beam that we're
both in. But the reality is I live in
America. So, uh I live in America and I
have a wild bias towards democracy over
authoritarian rule. Uh so with all of
those things out on the table, um we
have to be ready like we cannot play
around. And when
I there there is an idea that I have has
fired off in my brain a hundred times to
bring up uh in this and I always resist.
But apparently this time I'm going to
stop resisting. Let's do it. There was a
guy that was on Joe Rogan who was
talking about, in fact, as I tell this
story, if you can try to find this um
type Rogan
uh dead Taliban real fast and we'll see
if it comes up. And so this guy was
saying, "I don't understand." Nope,
that's not him. He He looks like the
human equivalent of um a berserk Viking.
Uh and nope, you'll know him when you
see him, man. This guy just has the
look. All right, this did not work as
well as id hoped it would. I promise
they all start the clips on Rogan. Um,
so anyway, the guy is saying, "I don't
understand the lone survivor story. If I
was being pursued by seven Taliban
people, that's a recipe for seven dead
Taliban real fast." And I remember
watching him talking and I was like,
"Oh, that's what a sociopath looks
like." Like he is just and he was
talking about he was like, "We were in a
firefight. I killed so many people. I
think he said, "I stopped counting at
100." And so I was like, "Jesus." Now,
this is not somebody that I think is um
having trouble sleeping at night. Now, I
could be wrong, but there's this story
that goes uh why is it that sociopaths
exist? And if you understand that you
get invaded, your women get kidnapped,
they get raped, your kids are killed,
you're killed. Um, if you understand
that that's the reality of life, you
need people who have dead shark eyes
that are just like, "Yeah, I'm uh I'm
going to do the killing and that's
that." Uh, so we need a military that is
lethal. We need to understand that there
are
people in our country, in other
countries, in every [ __ ] country that
we all got them. And the country that is
prepared to move those to the front of
the deck and give them some guns, uh,
that's who you're going up against. And
so, we have to be prepared for that. I
would never want us to be offensive,
meaning I would not want us to go on the
offense. I do not want to be in wars.
Part of the reason that I was excited
about Trump coming into office was the
anti-war. Anti-war anti-war. I don't
know that he's he does not strike me as
somebody who's actually living up to
that in um practice. Him him.
Yes. I never understood some of these
other like veteran
stories, you know. I never I never kind
of look the lone survivor. I never
understood the full story cuz I went out
alone all the time. That didn't happen
to me. Seven Taliban on my ass. You want
to see seven bodies super quick? You
know what I'm saying? Bring them boys up
here, you know? So, I never really
understood some of these other stories
because I had such a different
experience. I can't fathom if I was with
five, you know, the times I was with
five guys, you know how many people? I
mean, I was with three guys. You know
how many people we killed in the battle
of Tora? Hundreds. I just stopped
counting on my first day. That is so
indicative to me of the world that we
live in. And we have had this really
great run where we could act as if that
was not the world that we were in for a
very long time. Now people that America
dropped into to liberate. They knew
pretty quick. Um but we're now in a
position where we may I hope we never
have to but we may have to defend
ourselves. So I want to make sure that
we are ready. So, I don't want to just
spend extra money on the military and I
also don't want to pretend that we don't
live in that world. So, um, if you had
to pick one between like entitlements
and military, it seems like you would
rather cut entitlements in military.
Oh, Jesus. I hate everything about that
question. I'm definitely putting a gun
to your
head. At this moment, you can't afford
to not have your military,
but if you put yourself in that
position, you will have a civil war. So,
it's one of those where um if you do
Yeah. Do you want the destruction to
come from the inside or the outside?
Either way, you're going to be destroyed
because no one's going to stand for
that. You you can't just take it away.
This is why we have to do something
about the debt. We have to we have to
like if you want to continue to take
care of the people that you've promised
you're going to take care of, you have
to. Um it's not an option, but woo
buddy, you can't leave yourself
vulnerable, especially not at this
particular moment in human history.
You know, this is a great pivotal time
in human history. Um, because where a
lot of people are worried about life and
grocery bills, Kawasaki just unleashed a
new robotic course, and I'm here for it.
I'm going to be honest, maybe I play too
many video games, but I want to climb
rocks on a motorcycle with legs. Um,
what what say you about the Corio from
Kawasaki, a hydrogen-powered four-legged
robot? All right. Very important that
everybody understand this is just a
prototype and all the footage if you're
watching that is the stuff here in the
showroom that they're showing that's
real. But all of the stuff where it
shows it movi