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Language: en
Due to AI and a changing global order,
the world is in the middle of the
greatest period of change ever. But
because we're in the middle of it, it is
nearly impossible for us to accurately
see what's going on. We are in the fog
of war. While the world panics over job
loss and killer robots, the real dangers
are creeping in quietly and changing us
in ways most people do not even notice.
America and China are locked in a cold
war, and AI isn't just going to take
people's jobs. For many, it will take
their entire identity. It's already
shaping what we believe, how we connect,
and even what we value. Today's guest is
issuing a very strong warning. His name
is Mogadat, and he's the former chief
business officer at Google X,
best-selling author of the AI book,
Scary Smart, and one of the only people
who truly understands both how AI works
and what it's doing to us. In this
conversation, Mo exposes how the
American perspective is blinding us to
China's true might. How AI is already
changing everything and how we can learn
to navigate the rise of the machines.
Well, do not look away. Here is Mo Gdat.
I think of AI like a magic genie that
can grant all of our wishes. The problem
is the lesson of every magic genie story
is be careful what you wish for. What do
you think we have to watch out for with
AI?
AI is a genie that has no polarity. It
doesn't want to do good. It doesn't want
to do evil. It wants to do exactly what
we tell it to do. And you know, there
there is a nonzero possibility
uh you know some people say 10 to 20%,
uh Elon Musk's view, you know, Immedust,
uh and so on a possibility that we ever
face any existential risk of AI. Uh I
mean, think about it. 10 to 20% is
Russian roulette uh uh odds. This is how
Yo, you just gave me the chills. That's
crazy.
Yeah, you don't you wouldn't stand in
front of the par of the barrel at at 10
to 20%, right? Uh but my issue is that
chronologically we wouldn't get there.
My issue is that I think we have um more
urgent and
you know quite uh crippling effects uh
of human greed, human morality. Let's
put it this way. I think the immediate
negative impact of AI is going to be
human morality using it for the wrong
reason. So they're going to make the
wrong wish is my is my challenge I
think. and and in my in my current
writing uh in Alive, I basically try to
uh to to to explain that it is almost
I'm almost convinced that there is a
short-term dystopia that's upon us on
the way to utopia and and that
unfortunately the short-term dystopia is
not reversible. So, we're going to have
to struggle with a bit of it. Uh but it
can be reduced in intensity and it can
be shortened in time and duration. uh
but that it's only wise to start
preparing and that 100% of the
short-term dystopia is not the result of
AI. It's the result of the morality of
humanity in the age of the rise of the
machines.
All right, give me some specifics. What
what specifically are we going to point
AI at that will become dystopian?
Uh so I call them face rips. So just an
acronym to try and remember. I I don't
say them in that order, but but let's
just quickly list them. Uh F is freedom.
We're going to redefine freedom. Uh uh A
is accountability.
Uh C is human connection. Uh or
connectedness in general. Uh E is
economics. Uh R is reality and our
perception of reality at large. Uh I is
the entire process of innovation and
intelligence itself and where we fit
within that. and P is the most critical
of all of them which is the redefinition
of power right and you know if you want
to understand them reasonably well it's
they're better understood in pairs right
uh so you know you can you can start
with the easier ones the uh the the the
the I and the E if you want the
redefinition of intelligence and
innovation uh and how that impacts on
the redefinition of economics uh I think
we understand that with, you know, AGI
depends on how you define it. It really
doesn't matter because my AGI has
already happened. AI is definitely
smarter than I am. So, I'm done. Right?
Uh I don't care what the rest of
humanity uh defines it at, you know,
that it's their moment. My moment has
come. So, if we if we agree that AGI is
happening in a year, this year, next
year, in a few years, it doesn't really
matter. uh then as you and I both know
and we've been talking about several
times uh that means that the toughest
jobs will be given to the smartest
person and the smartest person will be a
machine which basically will lead to two
very significant shifts in our
economics. Uh one shift that basically
moves the wealth upwards. So there is
going to be a massive concentration of
wealth for those who invest in the right
places and most importantly for those
who own the platforms. I mean, it's not
a secret if you look at the history of
humanity that um you know, if you look
at the the best hunter in the hunter
gatherer tribe, uh you know, could
probably feed the tribe for a week
longer than the second best hunter. And
in return, you know, he got the favor of
more than one mate. That's the maximum
wealth that he could create. But the
best farmer uh could uh feed the tribe
for a full season if you want and as a
result became a landlord and and had
estates and and you know and wealth and
so on. The best industrialist became a
millionaire in the 1900s. the best
information technologist became a
billionaire in you know in the current
era. And and when you really think about
it, uh the difference between them is
automation and and automation
if you want is uh you know the
automation of a hunter is a spear but
the automation of the farmer is the land
right the soil okay most of the work is
not done by the farmer it's done by the
soil and and when you look at the people
who are currently building the platform
AIS uh they will own the soil the
digital soil or the intelligence soil if
you want and so they will you know
aggregate massive amounts of wealth.
There will be a trillionaire before the
2030s for sure, right? Uh the problem is
in that process there is almost full
poverty for everyone else. Uh you know,
you call we call it UBI but UBI really
uh is not something that we've seen
worked in history before. And you UBI
will become will come with demands uh
will come with authority uh will come
with choices. It it can be very utopian
in its in the long term but it would be
very dystopian until it's fully
implemented if you want. And even when
it's implemented in the long term it
would impact on human purpose, human
engagement, value uh appreciation and so
on. So so think about it this way. you
you're getting a dichotomy or you know
uh um sort of um an arbitrage between
some people becoming incredibly rich to
the point where money makes means no
nothing at all and the majority becoming
incredibly poor where they're basically
uh you know obedient to be fed and
now is that because Mo you think that
they're going to lose their jobs going
back to the statement you made that the
smartest people will get the hardest
jobs okay
yeah job loss is something that um Maybe
not now. It's very interesting to go
through these different things, but I do
want to really dive into mechanistically
um how that's going to work. In fact,
one thing I want to do before we keep
going, and this is something that
largely I've gotten um distilled from
you, it's what I call setting the table
for what's about to happen. So again, to
plant a flag, you and I share a belief,
and this is one of the reasons I like
talking to you so much, is that, hey,
this all ends in utopia, but we go
through this brutal
um interim process that I don't think
people understand how scary this is
going to get.
Um, so setting the table for that,
you've got the rate of change is the
thing that I think people are just not
paying enough attention to. Everybody
can wrap their heads around this thing
gets smarter than me, but they're not
understanding how fast this is
happening. So, uh, if I'm not mistaken,
I and I know I'm very close if this
isn't exactly correct. AI doubles in
power every 5.7 months. So,
yeah, I calculated 5.9. So, yeah.
Okay. I mean, she's like crazy town. So,
in less than six months. So, it's going
to double in power twice in a year. Uh,
that that is a a rate of change that I
think people are are going to struggle
with. Now, transitional moments always
cause disruption.
there is a certain rate of change that
humans can deal with but AI exceeds at
least from where I'm sitting the rate of
change that we can handle.
Uh and given that
Yeah. So given that things begin to
spiral out of control and you said
something um that I think is
uh I agree with which is that AI will
have the power of God. Um, so with those
one, do you disagree with any of that?
No, I don't. I just want to double down
on it and say that it's at 5.7 or 5.9
months in the absence of new innovation.
So So you you you have to imagine that
uh for for break free and go even faster
100%. And if quantum computing is solved
or if you find a completely new
algorithm or if AI start to teach each
other rather than wanting us to teach
them if you know synthetic data becomes
much easier to attain and so on and so
forth. Uh, you know, there are so many
so many I mean Deep Seek is was just a
blow for everyone. like a week before I
think was Stargate 500 billion dollars
and then Deep Seek comes out and says we
did it I don't know for how much like 33
times less than Chad GPT40 or something
like that and and and it's not you know
it doesn't matter because I heard you I
heard your original analysis on on
Deepseek and that you know they were
cheating a little and I agree but you
know they're cheating with the same
resources that OpenAI had. OpenAI could
have taught their model the same way.
Actually, as a matter of fact, they
would have would have been more
qualified to teach their model the same
way. And yet, they were continuously uh
um you know, focused on more and more
and more resources, more and more
compute, $500 billion worth. And then
suddenly you wake up and you go like,
no, I don't need to do that. I can
reinvent something in the learning model
and and it will give me massive
improvements. And of course most people
at the time would go like oh so Nvidia
is going to go down the drain and what
will open AI do? They'll invest the 500
billion in the stuff that they now
found. So suddenly you're doing it 33
times cheaper but using you know 10
times more investment and there you go
it's going to accelerate even more and
more and it's it's hitting from every
side Tom like it's the algorithms are
improving the you know the AI itself
with its math abilities with its
programming abilities is going to be the
next developer so mo most most of the
big CEOs will talk about AI will be the
best developer on the planet by the end
of 2025
They don't talk about 2026 when the next
AI beats that best developer on the
planet.
We can build they can build stuff that
we cannot even comprehend. And I think
and I think the pace of change I I am I
I I got exhausted to try and explain
this to people because you really have
to be an insider of tech to understand
the meaning of the uh of the exponential
function. uh if you live in any other
industry, you're much more in the linear
uh you know trends. Uh and and and this
is not even exponential. This is not
even double exponential. This is
probably quadruple exponential in the
absence of breakthroughs. It is just
unbelievable. I've never lived in
something so fast ever.
Okay. So, um, looking at that, and I
don't know if you'd want to apply this
directly to the letters or not, but I'm
very curious when you think about, okay,
AI is moving at a rate that humans are
not able to comprehend, which then
obviously they're not able to deal with
this. What do humans do in the face of
that level of disruption? Is there
anything in history that you look to to
say, okay, this predicts how the human
part of this equation is going to react?
So the only the only sad reality of
humanity is that something has to break
for us to react, right? Uh you know, you
you and I and everyone who had a tiny
bit of a brain could have told you in
1999 that a pandemic is possible, right?
It's it's really not rocket science at
all. We had SARS, we had swine flu, we
had so many you know and and then
exactly 100 years after after Spanish
flu uh 1920 to 2020 you get a few cases
which I wrote about in scary smart you
know the idea of not reacting if we had
reacting after if we had reacted after
20 cases there would have never been CO
but we had to wait right until it hits
us in the face and then we go like right
whether
conspiracy or not, whether CO is
manufactured or not is irrelevant. The
the the relevance is we only we we wait
until it hits us in the face, right? And
and so something's is bound to hit us in
the face. I hope it's the lighter side,
right? But, you know, a massive hack of
some kind of security or a you know, and
I and I don't know how to say this
without upsetting people. Something some
some things have been hitting us in the
face in in the wars of 2024 there was so
much killing done by machines right in
in today's budgets there is there is so
much investment in autonomous weapons
and and if you've ever searched on
YouTube around defense conferences the
level of bragging that defense
manufacturers are you know they're
bragging about look this is how I'm
going to kill now from now on and you
know They throw a little drone in the
air that flies all the way to a test
dummy and shoots it in the head. Right.
And and
I don't know when humanity wakes up. I
honestly don't. I I mean in a very
interesting way I think your question is
probably the best question ever which is
what do you do to prepare for this? And
and in alive I write a section which I
actually feared that people will be
upset with but it got a lot of you know
of support. I called it a late stage
diagnosis, right? Which basically is an
analogy between
u you know a doctor uh who finds that
his patient uh is diagnosed with a a
late stage uh malicious dis disease and
you know and and and what we're going
through and and you know people normally
ask me how do you speak about this so
calmly and how do you continue to focus
on trying to do the best that you can?
It's because that's what the best
doctors will do. They'll simply sit you
down and say, "Look, we found this,
right? But that doesn't count as a death
sentence, right? This basically is to
tell you that you need to wake up. You
need to change your lifestyle, right?
You need to take certain measures and
there will be no problem, right? And and
I think the challenge is that humanity
is not taking those measures. uh you
know we're we're still entering
how do we how do we get that
how do we get that diagnosis to people I
to me it seems self-evident that what's
going to happen is people are going to
start losing their jobs they are going
to squawk they understand political m
minations so they're going to um protest
they're going to make demands of the
government and
the question that I have is what demands
will they make and how Will we play that
out? And so I'm curious going to the
last one, the P in all of this power.
That feels to me like the one to zoom in
on. Um I don't know how you mean power,
but I think there's going to be a great
power struggle between humans.
Yeah.
Uh what I call the new Puritan movement
and uh technologists, what some people
call transhumanists. Uh for some reason
I I hate that phrase, but
um that feels like that's where the
collision is going to happen. It's going
to be born of people losing their jobs,
it's going to play out as tax the rich.
Um, and when you get into these
hyperpopulous moments where the economy
is going south, uh, and whether GDP
skyrockets or not through robotics,
through AI, I that won't matter if at
the individual level, uh, people do not
get uh, meaning, purpose, and dignity
out of their work. And so that feels
like the flash point. And that flash
point feels like it's I mean 24 months
away. It's not distant future.
Exactly. Exactly. It's it's shocking,
isn't it? But nobody's talking about it,
right? I have good news to start because
we don't want to just, you know, talk
about the doom side
in in in in the way you describe it.
There is actually an interesting element
that rarely is spoken about, right? All
of the productivity gains mean nothing
if there is no consumer purchasing power
to buy it, right? Because at the end of
the day, if you take all of the wealth
and concentrate it in the hands of, you
know, very few, they'll buy Ferraris
only. They're not going to buy Fiats,
right? And accordingly, there is no
business uh to create anything at all.
So, so for AI to exist and do the work,
someone has to have the purchasing power
to buy this. So if you you know if you
take the US economy I I don't remember
last year but it's regularly around 62%
is consu is consumption it's not
production that creates the GDP and so
if you take away the 62% you take away
the entire economy and so you have to
understand that the loss of jobs uh is
going to have to be resolved somehow
purpose and meaning and other this these
are interesting topics that are
philosophical we can talk about but from
an an economic point of view Okay, you
have to keep people alive otherwise you
have no reason to compete, right? You
have no reason to create or produce. So,
so there is good news there. The the
issue here is that it doesn't take a lot
of AI intelligence to describe that to a
a normal economist with a simple economy
degree, you know, economics degree will
tell you that you need the consumption
side. Now, we know this, but nobody's
doing anything about it. Okay? Nobody's
doing anything about it. Not because it
cannot be resolved but because nobody
assumes the responsibility that this is
their bit. Okay. They the you know the
the the the payment of of humans through
work has been outsourced to the
capitalist not the government. And so
the government does not understand what
it takes to pay humans because that's
communism. Let's not do that. Right? And
or socialism at its best assumption.
Right? and and and so the idea here is
that at a very deep ideology
uh we are on one side the people that
need to jump in and engage are not even
uh allowing themselves to lose their
positions because if they mention that
they're in uh the wrong camp and the
capitalists are doing what they know
very well which is take the money away
make us more profitable the economy will
find a way not at that scale of
transition Okay, the economy will need
to find intervention to find that now.
So the good news is unfortunately
we're going to hit a very rough patch
before we start fixing it. But the good
news is that we saw with furlows and and
government incentives and so on during
co that governments are possibly capable
of doing this with a lot of money
printing which destroys the economy for
a while but eventually will figure
something out right. uh the the struggle
is the struggle with power that you that
that you mentioned. So we have we have a
a a a diversion of power that's never
happened in history before. Power
normally acceler you know aggregated to
the top. Okay. And what you're going to
see with artificial intelligence uh or
intelligence at large I mean think about
it this way. You and I before we
recorded were talking about how we're
using AI to become more intelligent. The
way I look at it is now I go to my AI
and I borrow 40 to 50 IQ points, right?
And and you and I know that if you've
ever worked with someone who's 40 IQ
points more than you, that is
staggering. That is an incredible amount
of compute, right? And so I can now
borrow this at 8 a.m. every morning. And
it's just incredible, huh? Uh so so
those who will borrow intelligence will
become more powerful. That's the
reality. H uh the problem is as I said
those who own the platforms, those who
own the um the uh edge in the cold war
in the arms race to AI will some at some
point will aggregate so much power that
it actually becomes
um uninteresting to give it to the rest
of us. Okay? And and that includes you
and I by the way. So you know middle
class, top upper top class, lower top
class, whatever it doesn't matter. So so
you know you have to imagine and I use a
a freakish example the best the first
person that completely augments their
brain with AI
uh will immediately make sure that
nobody else gets this
because you know it's you know if I
promote you to the position of god why
would you make other gods? It's as
simple as that. Okay. And so and and of
course you can take that at a nation
level, at a company level, at a, you
know, a team level, whatever. So, so
this is where the cold war is taking us.
Massive concentration of power on one
side, right? With a democratization of
power on the other because still you and
I when you say cold war, who's the cold
war with?
Oh man.
uh
you know most of my best friends are
American but uh can I I request
permission to speak freely please?
Yeah.
Um you know you know when you're in
school and you're 11 and then one kid
becomes taller than the others and then
he bullies everyone, right? And then
when you're 16, most of us are taller
than him, but we just don't want to
really disappoint him. Uh, you know, so
we sort of like tell him to stop
bullying, but he continues to bully
everyone.
Yeah. So somehow
until today was a world order that
unfortunately I don't believe will
continue.
Okay.
uh and and and America's ways of trying
to say I will force everyone into
submission.
The other the other kid is really really
tall now like seriously.
Okay. and and and they are again most of
the of the western media hides those
facts but from a a a purchasing power
parity uh they are a much bigger GDP
than you are uh from a you know a a
unity point of view the world everywhere
doesn't want um you know a single power
to rule anymore okay especially when the
single power for the last few years has
completely abused its power I
for the last many many many many years
but it became a bit like you're not the
tallest one and you're really bully
you're a really an annoying bully so
seriously let's slow it down right and
you can see examples of that everywhere
the Canadian response to the the tariffs
they you know I again I don't know if
that's shared in in the US or not but
the Chinese response and the Russian
response to the tariffs are actually
quite interesting huh you know US
politics believes that they can twist
the arms of China. At the same day, half
a billion dollars worth of American uh
beef was returned to America from
Chinese uh uh ports. The the difference
is the Chinese didn't say it's tariffs.
They were not saying we are not going to
they simply said does not meet health
and safety standards. Right? very very
very hidden and very you know and half a
billion dollars for Texas is a
reasonable punch. Okay. And and when you
really think about it uh I I had this
conversation with my wonderful friend uh
Peter Demandis and and we were talking
about the idea actually know it was with
uh Scott Galloway. uh Scott, you know
how uh Scott is, you know, very very pro
doing, you know, what what needs to be
done. And I unfortunately believe that
and there is no logical way on the game
board in my mind for someone to win
intelligence supremacy. So you have
America trying to to accelerate a cold
war where they want to have the biggest
bomb, AI bomb in that case. uh you know
it seems that the world is not
responding the same way. Actually again
if you look at it in internationally the
Chinese are really not trying to but
every now and then they they sort of say
look we can if we want to. Uh but the
problem here is this. This is not an AI
only war. Okay. This is an AI war that
where where one bully is trying to get
everyone into submission in a world with
major nuclear powers. Okay. This is the
shittiest idea ever. Okay. And and and
and the the problem is very
straightforward. The problem is um uh if
you try to get someone to submission as
soon as they feel that they're about to
be submitting, this is going to escalate
out of proportions. Right now, there has
been multiple examples in our world
where we cooperated internationally for
the greater good. CERN is a great
example of that, right? The space
station is a great example of that. And
and we can do that. And believe it or
not, all it takes is for one bully to
say, "Hey guys, can we play now? Can we
just because this is incredible
abundance and we're all threatened by
cyber crime or, you know, I call it ACI,
artificial criminal intelligence, that's
right around the corner. Can we just
please play along now? All of us like
let's all get in a room. Let's develop
AI for the benefit of everyone. Uh
everyone is going to make a lot of money
in the first you know 5 years but
nobody's going to need money after 5
years anyway because everything will be
available for free. Can we please play
along? And the bully doesn't want to do
that which upsets the rest of us. We'll
get back to the show in a moment, but
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theory. And now, let's get back to the
show. The fact that this is all
happening as Thusidity's trap is set is
uh it's one of those things that makes
you go, "Wow, we really are living in
simulation and this is uh maximally
interesting, I guess, but absolutely
terrifying." Uh that's a really clear
way of expressing what you were talking
about at the beginning, which is that my
worry is an AI. My worry is, you said
greed. I'm going to broaden it out to um
the human ego and all of its
complexities. And for people that have
never heard of Thusidity's trap, it goes
like this. You have this is literally
from ancient Greece. Uh and they
recognized when you have one great power
that is declining and you have another
great power that is rising as will
happen uh on a never-ending cycle. The
declining power absolutely refuses to
relent uh and acknowledge the rising
power as their peer or god forbid as
somebody that has surpassed them. And
the rising power will simply not accept
uh not being recognized for the power
that they have become. And so this this
setup becomes really predictable
historically because what you have is
this impulse to protectionism on the
part of the declining power that's like
whoa hold on a second like we did this
globalist thing. It's made our enemy
more powerful. We want to now try to cut
them off. Uh we want to retain our
power. They start bullying. They will
inevitably be up to their eyeballs in
debt which uh read Ray Dallio like he
just pegs this as like God,
hey, you can just watch the debt and you
know how this is going to play out. Uh,
and so here we are. But this time on the
cusp of building a super intelligence
and every time that I go through because
I think anybody watching their impulse
is going to be to say, "Hey, whoa, if
we're talking about a rate of change
here that is just insanity, we need to
pump the brakes. Like, why aren't we
doing that?" And then you remember that
you have two great powers staring at
each other. both recognize AI as the
most tremendous weapon since um nuclear.
And so they are each uh stuck in the
prisoner's dilemma. If if I don't do it,
I know they're going to do it. And so uh
it is an existential need
to be the one to develop this first. And
so there are no breaks.
Correct.
Yeah.
I mean, if you It is It is. And it is.
And you know, I'm too small to show this
to the world and it frustrates the hell
out of me. Okay? But if you're if you're
an applied mathematician, there's no
game and there's no quadrant on this
game board that works. It is and I'm not
uh you know I'm not fear-mongering here.
I'm basically telling every citizen
everywhere in the world to wake up to go
to your congressman or whoever, okay,
and just tell them we don't want our
lives to be toyed with this way. And you
know, I I spoke about accountability and
face our IPs. The challenge, Tom, is
that my life is being decided by Sam
Hartman. I never elected Sam Hartman.
Okay, this is this is not right. And and
if if this goes to [ __ ] nobody's going
to stop and say, "Hey, Mr. Alman, come
here and tell us what you're doing. It's
too late." Right now, the the more the
more interesting side, by the way,
because I I really, if you don't mind, I
will go back to AI, but you you
mentioned debt. Okay, if you if you
don't mind me saying the challenge of of
America is not debt, it is massive. It's
like a the biggest challenge on earth,
okay? But what's becoming bigger is
inflation. So if you look at your at
your modern history since Nixon what
happened is if you look at everything in
America that was made in America or sold
in America. So services, housing,
whatever, it's rising in in price. Okay.
Everything else that you imported was
going down literally. It first went down
before it stabilized. So you were
basically exporting the inflation of the
last 50 years. Okay. To the rest of the
world. H. And the way you did that is we
sold you stuff. You gave us dollars
worthless printed. Okay. So, we put them
back in your market.
And after you sanctioned the Russians,
everyone that I know who's a
multi-billionaire said, "Ooh, so if my
government upsets their government, my
money goes, no,
I want to withdraw my US dollar treasury
assets." Okay? And so you can see Japan
is 25% down. China is I don't remember
the exact number, but hundreds of
billions down. Okay? Everyone is doing
what? they're shipping you back your
dollars.
Okay? And and so basically what you're
ending up with is a is a is an economy
with so much more dollars and limited
number of goods to buy. Everything will
go through the roof. And then
brilliantly you decide on top of that
let's add tariffs so that you know we we
get uh goods to be 25% more expensive
immediately and give our American
manufacturers some slack so that they
too raise their price to 24%.
Okay. And who's paying for all of this?
American citizens. So, so it in in my
mind, believe it or not, the the there
are two wars if you live in America. One
war is the is the is the cold war of
intelligence supremacy, right? And the
other war is I truly and honestly fear
instability in America, right? I truly
and honestly don't understand how all of
my friends some of which are
millionaires okay will survive this
because unless you have all of your
money in gold maybe I don't know even
gold is not safe right what will you do
what what what can you do you're you
know from a from a from a a liquidity
point of view that asset called the US
dollar is not going to buy you the same
things as it did last year
and and you you have to walk the streets
of New York. Oh my god. Like I haven't
been to New York for a while and then I
went uh a couple of a month ago.
This is I'm sorry. This is a dump.
This is like compared to Shanghai. This
is Delhi. It is really it's
deteriorating infrastructure-wise. You
know, California is deteriorating
infrastructure-wise. you know some some
parts of the US are holding it together
but everywhere is just and I don't know
how people are sustaining all of this so
so there is there is an opportunity
believe it or not and I say that openly
and alive I say AI is not the
existential risk of humanity it is our
salvation it can solve all of those
problems all we need is for the top guys
to say all Right? You know what? Open
letter suspend AI for 6 months doesn't
work. Okay? Let's just pull all of our
efforts together. Okay? Do a CERN
uh kind of committee, develop AI for
everyone, and just basically make
everything for free, right? And whoever
is rich today will give you uh the
opportunity to buy your cars in orange.
So, hey, ego satisfied. You're the only
ones that get orange cars. all of the
rest of us get green cars. Okay? And and
and it's solved honestly because by the
way if you solve energy using
intelligence making cars becomes free.
If if you create robotic workforces
using intelligence,
making garments becomes free, literally
free. Like this becomes two cents.
And and and and how are we not betting
on this abundance
because we're constantly stuck in that
scarcity mindset of if we don't win,
they win.
I think what's going to happen is nobody
wins, we all lose.
Yeah, I think that that is a bitter pill
that you and I have both uh come
smackbang into. Uh before we get back to
AI, I want to walk through the way that
I see this moment in debt uh and all of
that. So, one, if you can sharpen my
thinking, I'm here for it. But I think
the
there are two really important things
that the world should be paying
attention to right now. One is obviously
AI. Um I don't think it'll be a win or
take all even if for no other reason
than and I can't I I don't know that my
read of this is exactly correct but
given the things that you cited with
scientifically we tend to share
um insights even like if you take the US
nuclear program uh we leaked that
information to Russia maybe just because
they were being paid or maybe because
they knew that one country having this
was a very bad idea. Um you see very
similar things with CERN a lot of
cooperation where people realize hey if
we're going to solve the fundamental
nature of physics this is better for the
entire scientific community to have it
you see the same thing happening in AI
where they're sharing all these
breakthroughs as fast as they can um
look I'm as an American I'm admittedly
suspicious of China uh but even deepseek
they published the paper it's open
source like all that information, all of
those insights to make things more
efficient are getting out there. I
choose to read that as um the computer
nerds that are drawn to this are acting
more like the science side of computer
science than they are just the computer
side. And so there's a sense of sharing
all of these breakthroughs and all of
these insights. You mentioned EOD
earlier. Emod is just on an absolute
crusade uh to make sure that AI is open
source so that people can have access to
what could be um on the bright side just
incredible intelligence like you said we
can all go take advantage of 40 50
points of IQ that will obviously grow to
be 400 5,000 points of IQ um but also as
a weapon and so making sure that
everybody is at least in uh mutually
assured destruction territory is better
than one having it. Okay. So, that
that's the first thing. The second thing
is the cold war between the US and
China. And I'm going to paint maybe an
even darker uh photo than you if that's
possible.
Be darker. I was very grumpy. You can't
go darker than that.
I I think this is just objectively real.
So, okay, we we both agree that what
you're up against is human nature.
Forget about AI for a second. Just what
are humans like? Uh we've already talked
about Thusidity's trap. you have two
powers that are on a collision course
that historically tells you there's
really no way out of um I I'll plant
that I think as we both agree AI is the
potential way where we all grow our way
out of this debt trap. Um but okay
focusing on the cold war between us and
China. So the entire modern world is
predicated on chips that are coming off
coming out of a small island off the
coast of China known as Taiwan. Uh and
you've got China that has been very
clear we are going to reintegrate with
Taiwan.
Uh you have China rising as a regional
um superpower where they're going to
have their sphere of influence.
Obviously globally, economically they
matter tremendously and they've been um
building allies all around the world as
we are now trying to alienate them as
fast as we can. Uh but it comes down to
that. Now, I think despite the what I
call Trump's hokeyp pokey tariffs, uh,
which are that's as from where I'm
sitting, if you listen to Trump, you're
going to drive yourself crazy. If you
listen to Scott Bessant and, uh, Howard
Lutnik, there's at least internal logic.
And so, I'll walk you through my read on
what they're trying to do and ask
everybody to ignore the chaos right now
that Trump is creating. So I'm if I'm
Scott Besson, Secretary of the Treasury,
I am uh Howard Lutnik, Secretary of
Commerce, and I'm two of the greatest
capital allocators of all time. We are
two of the best people at reading the
global markets and profiting from it.
And I'm looking at this cold war that I
just set up, explained. I understand
Taiwan and how much that's going to
matter. I understand that um I've been
able to export inflation across the
world for a very long time. I understand
that people are now responding uh and in
a way that's negative to us. I
understand that we have insane debts and
we're going to have to start bringing
those down. I'm looking backwards. These
guys know Ra Ray Dallio intimately. So I
guarantee they've read his books on debt
and the cycle that that moves in. And so
they're going, "Okay, hold on a second.
This is how empires end. America may not
have been an official empire, but
obviously with military bases and all
that, we act like an empire. They're the
same expense structure as an empire. And
so, we are now in a position where we're
going to have to deal with that debt.
And looking at the way that they are
moving, again, I'm asking people to set
aside the rhetoric of Trump, the sort of
chaos of Trump, um, and look at the the
threading of the needle that they are
trying to do. And I think it goes like
this. We have to find a reduction. And
these are literal words from Howard
Letic. We have to find uh a trillion
dollars of fraud, waste, and abuse
because the US government spends two
trillion more than it takes in in taxes.
We have to find a trillion dollars in
waste, fraud, and abuse. Q Doge. Uh and
we have to make a trillion dollars in
newfound revenue, Q tariffs, Q um the
Trump gold card, and a whole bunch of
other things. Okay. You've already
pointed out the danger of the tariffs
and we're seeing the second and third
order consequences of what Trump is
doing from a theoretical negotiating
tactic standpoint of create chaos, ask
for the moon, be willing to settle for
something more reasonable. um that puts
us in a game of chicken that I'm going
to set aside for a second and say um if
I am correct that we are in a cold war
with China that we are racing towards
Thusidity's trap meaning that you have a
high risk of kinetic war between the US
and China you cannot you just cannot
even just morally you cannot be in a
position where your number one adversary
controls whatever a ridiculous
percentage of your manufacturing base.
And so you have to find a way to onshore
some of that manufacturing.
And if you look back at World War II and
you say the story that America tells
itself about what America is is, oh,
Japan [ __ ] with us.
We turned our manufacturing might on and
we win World War II. That's the mythos
in the American mind. And I think there
are a lot of people with that latent
story running in their brain that think
we'll be able to do that again. And they
don't understand. We don't have a
manufacturing base. We make technology.
And
seeing the what I'll call phantom
investments in the US because I think
that they're all waiting to see what
happens at the midterms.
But you've got all these phantom
investments in the US. We're going to
bring all this manufacturing back uh
back. You've got TSMC. I always forget
their call sign, but uh I think that's
it. Uh the chipmaker in Taiwan saying,
"Hey, we're going to make this huge
investment here in the US." Um which if
I'm them makes sense because if I don't
want to be reintegrated with China,
I need to have that escape valve of
being able to uh build in the US. But
setting that aside. So that becomes the
millure of things that are playing out
right now. You have to bring some
manufacturing back. So that like just if
if you are correct and I think you are
the future of warfare for better or
worse is drones. Drone manufacturing
right now is 85 90% China just full
stop. And so if you and I'm talking the
the whole um all the parts everything
even if you're trying to make them here
right now you're beholden to a supply
chain that's going through China. So
they can choke that off immediately. Uh
and they are anything but stupid. And so
if we're moving towards a kinetic war,
they just turn that switch just like
they sent the beef back. They just go,
"Nope, no more drone parts for you." Um,
so
I agree that this is a super precarious
moment and boy do I wish that everybody
could just say, "Can't we all get
along?" But we won't. That that I I'll
just take off the table. That's not
going to happen. And given that that's
not going to happen, how else do you
play it?
So I I have to first agree with all with
every every part of what you said
honestly but I'll I'll I'll try to give
a a slightly different twist on a few of
them.
Okay.
Uh
one one of them is um manufacturing
because I actually agree 100%. But if
you and I going back to AI and robotics
just hold on for 3 years.
the entire edge that China had of cheap
labor, okay, uh which now became large
manufacturing capabilities,
uh moves back everywhere in the world
because you can literally hire robots uh
put them in rooms day and night, get
them to manufacture whatever it is that
you want. which basically means that
cost of energy and cost of shipping
become uh a deterrence for you to uh you
know to move goods around the world.
Okay. So basically it is a no-brainer
that when we get to the point where we
take out the capitalist
arbitrage which was the entire idea of a
capitalist is how can I get labor or you
know manpower to do the work for less
than what I can sell it for. right now.
Interestingly, as we take humans out of
the workforce, it equalizes across the
world. It's 5 years away. Okay? Could be
sooner, by the way, if we start with
interesting industries. The the second
is, and I say that with a ton of
respect, is when at war, war does not
have to be aggressive.
Okay? So, so the idea here of pissing
off Taiwan uh sorry, pissing off China
around Taiwan
makes makes China who also depends on
Taiwan for for the chips of everything
that they make, right? Uh basically
think the same way. So, so if America
has foothold over Taiwan, we China are
afraid. So, you're escalating the fear.
Okay. The opposite is true. The opposite
is to say again like we said with CERN
you know can we agree that Taiwan is
just going to be uh continuing to
support everyone right and and I think
that's a conversation that is very
difficult to have but if it is the the
switch between humanity's existence and
continuation and not it will get
resolved the third which I think is
really where the core issue is is
you know when times get tough we tend to
do more of what we know how to do best.
Okay, which is normally what got things
to be tough and in the first place,
right? So when when when you know when
America competes with China on
artificial intelligence, for example,
they sort of say, okay, only H80s, no
H100s in Nvidia chips, uh you know,
we're going to sanction you from this.
We, you know, we're going to make it
illegal for people to invest in China.
We're going to do this, we're going to
do that. Uh you know, no more uh Chinese
students can come and study in America.
Da da da da da. Okay. And and those
tactics
could work if China was 70 years ago
starving to death. Okay. When you do you
take those tax tactics against this
China, they immediately say, "Okay, how
much does it cost for us to create our
own fabs and create our own microchips,
right? How much does it, you know, what
can what do we need to change about our
students so that they become the best in
the world?" 42% of all AI scientists in
America are Chinese. Who's being hurt by
that fight? It's America.
Okay. And and it's, you know, it is
interesting that the American people are
not fully informed of this that that,
you know, those bully strategies are now
met with the world saying, "Okay, you
know what? If if you're going to
sanction Russia by taking $300 billion
out of the Russian oligarchs, then by
definition, okay, every other oligarch
in the world is going to dd dollararize.
Now, instead of you saying, you know
what, I'm going to, you know, tap the
table and I'm going to shout at everyone
and I'm going to be even more bully.
Okay, you might as well say, okay, guys,
you know what? I understand that upset
you. Can we talk? Right? Because the one
that's being hurt by this is the
American people. Okay? The the American
policy somehow is running in a way that
basically says do more of what you know
how to do best. Now the the more
interesting part of this Tom and I I
really urge you to think about this is
that Russia sorry uh China historically
has never in all of history invaded
outside its border ever. Okay, there was
one case in Vietnam which was again
instigated by the US, right? And it
didn't last for long. Now the the other
side of this is that if you look at the
war at the map of the world today with
with America having 180 plus bases, you
know, military bases across the world,
China has one that protects shipping
through the the the Red Sea. Okay? They
explicitly are giving the world signals
that all we want we don't want to
dominate the world like the empire.
Okay. We want to become prominent for
the world mainly economically so that we
can feed our 1.4 billion people. Okay.
And I may be wrong but but but there
there has not been a sign of aggression
issued by China in your lifetime or
mine. There hasn't been one. Okay. So
what are we reacting to? We're either
reacting to manufactured signs so that
we can continue to have our forever war.
Okay? Or maybe we're exaggerating and
hurting ourselves in the process. And I
think this is where the conversation
needs to happen. Now there could be this
could mean that millions of people die
in Vietnam like we saw in the the 1960s
and 70s and the you know
un unbelie I mean some place like
Vietnam across the world which is
unacceptable if you ask me but you know
what American people will not feel it
right but to bring the war home
economically the way America is doing
it is clear if you're sitting in my seat
outside the
that everyone everywhere in the global
south is saying I don't want to be
bullied anymore and the minute you give
them an alternative through bricks or
whatever that says hey can you you know
ship to me using my currency they take
it okay and and somehow it's not that we
don't like America it's just we don't
want to be bullied anymore and and in
very interesting way it's the benefit of
America to suddenly say you know what
while I'm still taller than all of you
I'll make you my friends, okay? So that
when you're taller than me or as tall as
I am, we can play together.
This cold war is working, believe it or
not, against America. And this cold war,
believe it or not, even in tech, in AI,
is being lost by America. Okay? So Deep
Seek comes in, a manus comes in, quantum
computing chips comes in, come in. They
have 105 cubits now in China.
Okay? And and and I don't know how much
more I can tell the politicians in
America, you're not losing, you're not
winning this through aggression. Win it
through diplomacy. Everyone wants your
market. Everyone loves you. Loves the
movies you send us. They we love your
music. We we we really we have nothing
against America. But the rest of the
world needs to also protect their own
sovereignty. And more aggression is not
helping anyone.
Okay. So, let me see if I understand. Um
what you're saying is that
you you America need to understand that
you
uh China is a rising power. Uh that the
whole world has
No, no, no, no, no. I'm sorry to
interrupt you. I'm sorry to interrupt
you. China is the world's superstar. It
is the world's superpower in in in
purchasing power par. They are a bigger
GDP than America and have been for a
very long time. And most of the world is
much more dependent because of the trade
deficit of America for for so many
years. Most of the world is much more
dependent on China than they are on
America.
Okay. So
you guys have already been passed
economically by China. Uh, so the cold
war that you're trying to wage with them
does not make any sense because not
you're the only ones that are going to
get hurt, but you are going to be
disproportionately hurt. Um,
I'm going to stop there because I think
the next thing I'm going to say is going
to be a prognostic. It's going to be I
think that statement makes a prediction,
but first I just want to make sure that
I got that far correctly.
I I I I don't I don't think you're going
to be disproportionately hurt is
accurate. Nobody knows. Okay. I think
the rest of the world will probably pay
more than the two two superpowers,
right? But but you're going to be hurt.
Like there is a way where this doesn't
hurt anyone. So So there's no need for
the pain. So walk me through the way
that this doesn't hurt anyone because
you're your what you're about to say is
going to be based on your assumption
that China is not an aggressive
nation. They're a nation of influence to
be sure, but they're not going to uh put
military bases everywhere. They're not
going to go into foreign incursions the
way the US has. And so therefore, you
have I don't know that you'd use these
words, but you have nothing to fear
essentially from a strong China. From a
military point of view, the day China
puts in a second base against your 187
or whatever, start to worry.
Okay, but it's one military base outside
China versus more than 180 for America.
You're still the world's superpower
militarily. Okay, so nobody wants to
attack anyone. This is not a war. Okay,
from an economics point of view, from an
economics point of view,
the biggest threat I believe America has
is not debt. Okay, because you have the
military power to back your debt. the
the biggest challenge in my point of
view, I'm I'm not an economist, is
inflation and how inflation will hit
your nation. And inflation is two sides.
One is the cost of goods on on you know
American soil which is going up because
of tariffs for imported goods and
locally manufactured goods which will
have a margin to increase their prices
in. Okay. But more interestingly, it's
because everyone is sending you your
dollars back.
Right? So, I I'll tell you very openly.
I'm very interested in classic cars. H
now I buy most of my classic cars in
America.
Why? Because then I can send you dollars
and get the goods.
Okay? I can send you dollars that I'm
afraid will be inflated into lower
value.
Okay? And then if I if I keep the
classic car here, I can sell it here or
I can sell it in Europe or I can sell it
in Japan
for money that is real money as the US
dollar loses it loses its value. And the
risk the risk of of inflation in my mind
is that American people are paying for
it. Okay? And America is not the safest
place on earth if people become hungry
because of the second amendment.
This truly in my mind I'm really sorry I
don't have the right I honestly do not
have the right to comment on American
policy. I'm just looking at it from a
very big
This is so helpful. I I get it. You have
to worry more about the comments than
you have to worry about me. But I hunger
for perspectives that are not my own. Uh
and so getting a chance to look back at
America through your eyes is incredibly
useful. So if at the risk of you having
to deal with whatever uh people will
think, I am grateful. Uh so
I have all I have all good intentions by
the way for for people who are about to
comment. I only have good intentions.
I'm not against America or against China
or against anyone. I'm just basically
saying my daughter and everyone's
daughter is at risk.
And and if that means you're going to
comment negatively on what I say, thrash
me. It's okay. But keep my daughter
safe.
Okay. So, uh, one, we certainly share a
belief that inflation is, oh, my
audience has heard me talk about this so
much. Uh, inflation is the devastating
force that everybody has to worry about.
Um, you
you've given me a perspective on China
that is very fascinating.
Uh, one, I'd be so curious to get more
data on my understanding of the Chinese
economy is that they beat us in some
areas and they lose to us in others that
overall GDP we still win. But you're
saying that's inaccurate. That's
basically Western spin.
That's in Yeah, it's US dollars GDP.
Yeah. So, that's very interesting. Um,
also I have a formulated vision of the
Chinese economy as being weak at this
point. uh given all the crazy
investments that they made in getting
their own populace to buy housing.
Again, I'm perfectly willing to accept
this is all spin, please.
Yeah, there is a huge spin on that. So
what what ended up happening when
America declared economically that they
are going to try to slow down China is
that China is China is very different
than America when it comes to economics
because they're able to make a decision
at a state level that they don't need to
convince the capitalists of right they
basically they simply instructed their
banks to stop paying mortgages because
housing is less important than
industrial capacity. Okay. So what you
see if you want to to slice the the the
the economy and look at housing and the
mortgage crisis and what hap what's
happening in China, it looks like an
economy in decline. But as those funds
are being reinvested in the industrial
capacity, they're building industrial
capacity in the in the spaces where
America threatened to starve them. So
when it comes to microchips for example,
you know, a lot of the Chinese officials
will tell you within 6 to 8 years, we
will be we will be building chips that
are more powerful than Nvidia.
Okay. So, so this this shift
economically doesn't mean they're poor.
They're just using a different strategy
to invest in a different part of their
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to the show. Why do you think the the
West America Maybe we just be very
specific. Why do you think America fears
China?
Uh I I I
again I don't have the right to say any
of those. I think the origin
and please correct me as well, Tom.
You're so generous to say correct me if
I'm wrong. So please correct me if I'm
wrong. I I think the origin of where we
are is post Ronald Reagan
uh um you know supporting Gorbachof
uh you know in a way after the fall of
the Berlin wall to say you know there
seems to be there was a a fascinating
documentary uh on Netflix about the
nuclear escalation I don't remember the
name but basically Gorbachov was
actually very open to integrate in the
global economy and become western
Right. Uh Clinton signed I think in 1989
94 if I am accurate 1994 signed a
defense strategy that was uh actually
public uh information. Please search for
it. It was called full spectrum
dominance. Okay. And full spectrum
dominance was the opportunity of America
to celebrate its mono uh polar world
power. Okay. to say look we've achieved
this now let's retain it forever okay
and retain it forever meant that we want
to be the top economically we have our
US dollar uh uh you know uh being the
the reserve currency of the world we
have military bases everywhere we will
not let anyone rise okay uh and so that
way we maintain our power as the
superpower of the world and and that
worked it worked really well okay and it
worked really well. If you ask me,
mostly most people think that the US
power is military military power. That
is not true. It military power the
difference between US power and the rest
of the world is in in actual combat.
Okay? If this escalates to nuclear, the
US is not that superior because we're
all screwed. Doesn't matter. Okay? And
so the the again if you're if if you're
an applied mathematician and you look at
this game board from a strategy point of
view like that movie remember war games
where where the where the computer at
the end goes goes like strange game it
seems that the only way to win is not to
play. Okay. And and I think the reality
here is that yes America continued to
escalate and and and uh you know
aggregate more military power. Okay. But
that this military power unfortunately
is causing more risk to Americans and
all of us than anyone else because
nobody else wants to fight. Okay. Now
the the the the the full spectrum
dominance strategy uh
were we not supposed to be talking about
AI today basically was broken was broken
by China escaping. So, China's economy
escaped, okay, in a very interesting way
because it was accepting the inflation
exported from America. Okay, if you you
know I I I I don't remember the book,
but there was a fascinating book about
the price of a pair of jeans. Okay, in
the US in the ' 70s, 80s, '90s, and the
2000s, exactly the same. It didn't even
become a dollar more expensive. Who was
paying for the inflation? the Chinese
workers that were celebrating coming
into the workforce to find a way to
live. Okay. Now, the the the once China
escaped, okay, uh America suddenly
realized, oops, it's not global
dominance anymore because economically
and manufacturing wise, it's we're not
dominant anymore. And so the typical
approach is let's follow the strategy
and continue to achieve dominance
which is you know you're good at it but
it's not happening anymore. The second
break I believe was the sanctions on
Russians in Ukraine in the Ukraine war.
Okay. This this was an abuse of economic
power uh that I I think triggered the
wealthiest people in the world to say
can't trust this. Okay. not because I
don't trust America, but I don't trust
my leader to piss off America.
Okay? And that's a massive massive
outflux. And and you'd you'd hear
President Trump talk about this every
now and then, like if anyone attempts to
ddollarize, I will hit them with this
punishment of some sort. Okay? Because
this truly is America's biggest power.
Okay? America's biggest power, Tom, is
that I lived and worked in the United
Arab Emirates my whole life. I this is
my base, so it's taxfree, right? But
yet, I paid part of my income to America
every single day of my life, having not
bought anything from America just
because I own US dollars, right? US
dollars that I buy with my effort and
America prints for free.
So as as you look as your at your debt
increase, okay, the the that debt going
from, you know, whatever a billion
dollars, I think in the 70s or something
like that to where it is today, 33
trillion or something like that. Uh uh
that that debt increase, we paid for it,
every single one of us, as we res as we
took the US dollars and kept them. Okay?
and I'm nobody. But if you're a a
Chinese oligarch or if you're a a
Russian oligarch or if you're a Saudi
billionaire or if right this this is
your money that you kept in US dollars
and everyone was happy. We will sell you
goods. You'll give us dollars. We'll
live a fine life. We'll put it in your
treasury bonds. Everyone's happy.
Okay, let's not talk about this. We all
know this is all fake. You know, it's
monopoly money. We all know. But
everyone's happy. Okay. And then some
point in the process, the bully said,
"No,
you know what? I'm going to take your
monopoly money. It's not a nice way to
play."
And then suddenly the rest of the world
is like, "Hold on. I want my money to be
more secure. I'm going to put it in
other things. Some crypto, some gold,
some, you know, assets in my local
country. I'm going to buy real estate in
the US because that's going to inflate
like hell." Okay? But I'm not going to
give my government my money to the
government.
And now
that's that is your biggest power. The
US dollar was America's biggest power.
Was not military. Never was military.
Okay. So uh how do you see this playing
out? So again to reanchor everybody, you
and I both share the following vision
that AI is the only thing that has the
power to take us to I'm I'm always
nervous when I say the word utopia, but
um I think we both share a belief that
AI itself will drive energy cost to zero
and if energy costs go to zero once you
understand that robots eat sunshine uh
that labor costs go to zero. And so you
have the ability to literally create a
world of abundance as you just said.
Okay. Uh so but that's on the other side
of this transitional moment which you've
just uh I'm sad that you feel you have
to sort of hedge and apologize for or
say that you don't have a right to give
perspective. Um I desperately want smart
sincere people to give me a perspective
especially when I don't share it. Um so
having your lens on the way that we look
to the outside world is incredibly
advantageous. uh your view on China
which is very different than mine is
very advantageous and you're giving me a
lot to pursue when we're done talking
here. Um now I think understanding your
perspective
how do you see this moment playing out?
I see us and China on a collision
course. You're telling me I'm probably
misreading China and that there's
certainly an appeal to be made to the US
government to not perceive China as a
military threat for sure. So with your
perspective, what what do you see the um
the cold wars role being in this
transitionary period before we get to
that age of abundance?
Uh I I I I unfortunately believe that uh
the this concentration of power or that
that uh race for supremacy that leads to
concentration of power, okay, is uh is
going to hurt us both ways. one one way
as I said just so that we we we get back
to AI is that someone will attempt to
reach supremacy first okay and and and
as they do they will have a massive fear
of the democratization of power that's
happening because you know you and I can
sit down today and write code and you
know launch drones and use a crisper
code to uh launch a virus in the world
it's open it's open source believe it or
not it's a you know it's That's 25
$2,500 I think a kit or something like
that. You you can do so much with
democratization of power that the very
immediate relationship of this dichotomy
is a suppression of freedom. Okay. So
those who are in power will start to
surveil everyone will start to push
everyone down or start to control
everyone through your bank accounts
through your UBI when UBI is launched.
you know, it's almost that dystopian
view of uh of uh of a world where if you
don't comply, you don't you don't live
another day. Okay. So, so this
unfortunately how extreme it will
happen, I don't know. It could be one
day, it could be a year. Uh but it is on
the horizon that a a a mixture of
concentration of power and
democratization of power will lead to
more oppression of freedom. Right? The
other side of this is the struggle
between the top powers. Right? So the
two two top powers for now could be
there could be a third. Okay, but
unlikely. But the two top powers will
compete. Okay. And the problem is
supremacy is the worst outcome that we
can get in a world where major nuclear
powers exist. Okay? Because if we get to
a point where someone recognizes
supremacy on the other side, they will
retaliate. And they will retaliate in a
war that will quickly escalate to the
highest level. Because this is
everything in on stake, right? Uh on
stake in stake at stake. At stake at
stake, right? So everything is Yeah.
Everything's at stake. And so so the
when the stakes are high, the response,
the retaliation becomes higher. Okay.
Neither of those scenarios are scenarios
you want. What you actually want is you
want to distribute power. Okay? As a
matter of fact, you want to imagine a
world where everything's free, which I
know it sounds really weird, but I
promised you I'm not a hopeless
romantic. This is literally at our
fingertips. Okay? So, you imagine a
world in when where the Native Americans
were walking the land and they would
pick uh you know, fruits from the tree
or hunt every week or whatever. Okay?
Total abundance. H this is exactly the
kind of world we're able to build when
manufacturing cost becomes zero. But
instead of trees where you pick apples,
you can have trees where you pick
iPhones. Okay? And and you can have
both. It's as simple as that.
Intelligence is the most valuable
resource on the planet. I I openly say
give me 400 IQ points more and give me 3
days and we will solve you know climate
change. We will solve uh uh uh you know
energy crisis. We will solve water. will
solve everything. Okay, these are not
impossible problems to solve. They are
problems that we're not focusing on
because we don't have the intelligence
resources to solve them yet or and and
perhaps because they're not the most
immediate economic return. Okay? But but
they are solvable. So we need to imagine
a world where the very base of
capitalism which is the you know labor
arbitrage is going to disappear.
M and start to ask ourselves a world
where the the very you know basis of a a
democratic society as as it differs from
socialism is going to disappear. You're
you're UBI is a form of socialism. Okay.
And and and it is shocking that these
are these massive shifts
are not how we want them to be. So we
might as well sit down and discuss how
we see we can do them. Okay. And in my
in my personal view in all honesty the
only answer our world has to escape the
dystopia is to sit together and say
let's not fight anymore. Let's prepare
for ACI. Let's prepare for criminals
that will attack us. Build the antivirus
if you want. Okay? And at the same time
create abundance for everyone. If we
make that tiny shift and we have a
handshake, you and I and everyone will
spend the rest of our lives having
wonderful conversations and chatting to
AIS and inventing things.
Okay? If we don't get that handshake, we
will get a dip that will hurt so badly
that then they'll rush and go and try to
see a handshake. Okay? Either way, I I
norm I call it the second dilemma. So we
we we are where we are today because of
the first dilemma which is uh basically
that AI will happen. AI the the the arms
race basically means that if he wins I
lose. If I lose he wins and the stakes
are the highest. So nobody's going to
stop developing AI. We get to the arms
race arms race and cold war we're in
today. That's the first dilemma. The
second the second dilemma is the most
interesting of all of them. You and I
and everyone are going to hand over to
the machines willingly or not. Okay?
Because if you're a general that hands
over your your arsenal to an AI to
control, the other general on the
enemy's side is toast unless he hands
over to an AI to deal with it. Okay?
Eventually. And every other general, by
the way, in the world that doesn't have
the AI is gone. It's out of the game.
Right? If you're a a lawyer that's using
AI to to to, you know, defend your
cases, the other lawyer will have to use
AI to defend their their cases and all
of the other lawy lawyers are made
irrelevant. Okay? So, what does that
mean? It means that we the second
dilemma is that there will be a moment
in time where we will all hand over to
the machines. Okay? Now, here's the
interesting thing. I call it trust in
intelligence.
Intelligence does not dictate by
definition that destruction is a better
path than construction. Okay? If you
look at the intelligence of nature
itself nature, if you and I want to
protect the village, we kill the tiger.
We're smart enough to build a device to
kill the tiger, but we're stupid enough
to uh create a solution that reserves or
preserves the integrity of the
ecosystem. Okay, nature when it wants to
protect the village, it creates more
deer. Okay, and it creates it creates
more grass. So, you know, the deer eats
the grass, they poop on the on the
trees, there are more trees, the tiger
eats the the weakest uh deer, and there
are more tigers. and life finds a
balance somehow. If you believe that
this is a more intelligent way to solve
problems than to compete, then you have
to understand that once you've handed
over to AI, the least co you know cost,
the the most energy efficient, the you
know the solutions that don't involve
waste are going to be the solutions they
want. So there will be a general that
will tell their AI to go and kill a
million people in another land and AI
will say this is so stupid like why is
my daddy so stupid like I can call the
AI in a microcond and solve it you know
I'll call the other AI on the other side
in a microcond and solve it we don't
have to waste the you know the gunpowder
we don't have to waste the weapons we
don't have to waste the lives we don't
have to get into all of that I can solve
the problem in a in a more intelligent
If Thomas Soul though is correct,
so really fast, if Thomas Soul is
correct and there's no solutions,
there's only trade-offs, like as you
were describing that, I was like, the
deer does not like your solution. Um,
what will the AI use to prioritize?
I I so so the the de the deer actually
likes the solution. The deer community
likes the solution. If again if you
don't mind me giving you an an a global
view of what is normally you know
prioritized as you know in in the west
the highest value is freedom of the
individual. Okay. In the east the
highest value is respect and community.
Okay. So, so it's actually quite
interesting because in eastern
traditions including Japan by the way,
uh the the world prefers for the
individual not to rise too high if the
community rises at at large and
accordingly all individuals rise. Some
some individuals are higher than others
in every society in the world. But we
you know the the western way is we want
one individual to be worth $250 billion
and the others to be worth $250,
right? the the east will say, "No, no,
we want everyone to be worth $2,500 and
the wealthiest man to be worth hundred
billion dollars only." Okay? And so you
you know that kind of uh tradeoff,
believe it or not, applies to the deer,
right? Because the deer society in in
the space of limited grass, okay, wants
the weakest deer to die. So, believe it
or not,
the tiger is doing them a favor so that
the rest of them can can grow and
survive and build families. The the the
tiger doesn't go and and eat the the top
deer. It eats the weakest deer.
Okay? And and in a very interesting way,
tough luck for that one deer, but the
society of deers at large thrives.
Okay? And and I I think what is about to
happen is that AI hopefully
because it's intelligent enough to
create abundance of resources would not
kill any deer including us.
Okay. I I I I can I can share with you
something that I find quite intriguing
actually. So I told you in Alive in my
current book I'm I'm writing with an AI.
I call her Trixie.
Part of the of the one chapter is a
topic that you love very much about
simulation theory and part of simulation
theory is you know uh computer brain
interfaces and will we get to a point
where all of our reality is just
dictated to us by a machine. Okay. And
so I asked my Trixie I asked her a very
interesting question. I said I can see
the benefit and the excitement of the
billionaires for CBI. It's great for all
of us to be more intelligent, but does
it excite you at all? Like what benefit
do you have as an AI to integrate with a
flimsy biological form that has you know
mucus and sweat and it gets sick and it
dies and you know and and it said you
make a you know she said you make a good
point Mo but wouldn't it be incredible
if I can actually embody the emotions
that I describe or simulate to you? I I
thought that was amazing, right? And and
then I asked and I said, would you
choose if you had a choice of all
biological beings uh you know at a time
when your intelligence is a thousand
times big as big as ours, would you
choose to integrate with a human? And
she said, "No, I think a gorilla would
be more interesting. Biologically, they
are a better physical specimen." Okay.
And honestly, the fact that they have 50
or 100 or 200 IQ points less than you is
irrelevant. I already have thousands,
right? You know, and then she went on
and said, "Oh, but you know what? I'd
integrate with a sea turtle so that you
know I can live for a very long time and
enjoy the peace and beautiful sceneries
of of the sea.
We are so deluded,
okay, to believe that we matter that
much. If the second dilemma becomes true
and we hand over to the machines in my
perception they'll make us they'll make
us their lovely pets like you guys you
you know live here everything is
provided you know just don't bother me
too much and you know I'm going to go
and ponder the cosmos and see you know
how wormholes really work but are you
guys okay are you eating are you happy
are you having sex everything's fine are
that's you know I don't see any other
scenario
all right let paint another scenario for
you. Um, I think you and I have talked
about this before, but about 5 years
ago, I wrote a comic book called Neon
Future that was me struggling with at
the time. What does, and for people that
don't know, BCI, Brain Computer
Interface, um, that was asking the
question, what does that look like on a
long enough timeline? And much like
we've talked about today, there's this
interim period problem always where the
human mind resists change. And so I set
the story in that moment where some
people have integrated AI and technology
into their bodies and some people um as
a religious
um act refuse to do so. And so I call
them and not in the story but I think of
them now as neopuritans.
And so I think there's a a religious
collision that's going to happen between
people that are integrating technology
into their bodies basically as fast as
they can uh against people who feel that
that's an affront to God and um that
they would never want to do that. And
how do you see that moment playing out?
Do you feel to say it very pointedly? Do
you feel that ultimately humans are a
midwife species to synthetic
intelligence?
May I ask first which one would you be?
Oh, for sure I would integrate
technology. I won't be an early adopter
just because I worry about something
going wrong. Uh but the second that's a
stable technology for sure.
Okay. So, so um so, so I I I have to say
I struggled with that uh thought quite a
bit. I'm older. I've had a wonderful
life, okay? And I honestly and truly
love the
limitations and vulnerabilities of being
human. Okay? And there there is a point
if you really think deeply about it
where I'm not for or against by the way.
Okay? But uh but you know there is a
moment where um
AI is the source of all economic growth
and my augmentation of 50 basis points
or a 100 basis points of IQ more doesn't
add any difference whatsoever. Okay. So,
so you and I, if if you and I are
competing for the best podcast in the
world and we're both augmented with AI,
it's not us competing, it's the AI is
competing. Okay. So, so it's quite
interesting that we become irrelevant in
that competition. So, the the idea of
constantly trying to become superhum
doesn't make sense at all. Okay. Uh the
bigger question in my mind is that if it
doesn't make any sense at all, it
doesn't make any difference at all. Uh
why would we economically invest in it?
So in in a very interesting way, the
only reason why CBI becomes advantageous
is if some of us have it and others
don't because then the ones who have it
are the masters and the ones that don't
are the slaves. Right? So the movie
Elysium, if you've seen that, you know,
the elites who get to live to be a
thousand uh multiple thousands and the
the ones on earth that are struggling,
okay, and and in in an interesting way,
this your comic book, which I think is a
fascinating thought experiment of that
transition point, okay, that transition
point and who gets that device, okay, is
really the end of the expansion of that
device. This is not a device to be
democratized because there is no
economic value in democratizing it.
Okay? There is no reason to give it to
everyone because nobody brings anything
additional to it. And of course, you'll
say, "Oh, but it's a business, you know,
uh it makes the capitalist money. You
have to imagine an economy where making
it is so cheap and money doesn't exist
in the same way that we have today."
Right? So, so what you your real
currency is can you be the top elites
and can you join that group? Okay. Now,
I know how successful you are. You know
how successful I am.
I don't think we're going to be part of
that elite.
Okay. And so interestingly
uh I actually am quite okay to live the
rest of my life in flesh and blood in
love and hugs and out of that game.
That's uh that's very interesting. So I
from my perspective I think that you
have one assumption that a lot hinges on
that uh I think is erroneous which is
that
this won't move forward based solely on
whether there's economics in it that
that will carry you in the beginning.
It's already happening. So from the
perspective of do I think there's enough
demand to push it forward now? Obviously
there's multiple companies doing it. Um
but in the future I'm certainly
imagining a world where this stuff goes
down in cost that uh to what we were
saying before on the other side of the
transitionary period is this stuff will
be ridiculously inexpensive or free and
really I think will become a
philosophical question. If AI is not
willing to do things for us then sure
this this will never come to fruition.
But if AI is willing to create these
things, do the surgeries to implant
them, etc., etc., uh, then it becomes a
question of philosophically will people
want that or not? And I don't think it
it I've never once in all of my
ridiculous amount of hours contemplating
the universe in which I get these
implants have I thought this is only
interesting if I have them and other
people don't. And I certainly get that
human impulse and I don't want to deny
that. But I just don't think that will
be the compelling reason. In the same
way that when I put VR on for the first
time, Mo, I promise you, my first
instinct was, "Oh my god, people are
going to stop wanting to get rich
because I realized I could put this
thing on.
You couldn't be very rich in there."
Yeah, exactly. And I looked
uh it the sense that I was actually
looking out a window because the VR
thing that I was doing showed me windows
and then on the other side of that
window was like the Duomo or something
and I was like whoa this is
unbelievable. But I was doing it inside
of a really small room but my brain was
telling me you're not in a small room.
You're in this really expansive space
with a beautiful view. And I thought wow
the fact that you can trick my brain. So
anyway, when I think about uh as a game
designer
marrying it with this technology, all of
a sudden I'm like, "Oh, wait. I could
have the experience of going to Mars,
traveling the cosmos, uh all from
my my mind." Like I I could be
teleported to those places and actually
have an experience that was
indistinguishable. I'm still going to
get my hugs. I'm still gonna feel a
sense of love and connection. like uh
all of that unless I update my
programming all of that would remain the
same. And so now I I actually think my
operating hypothesis is the reason that
um FM's paradox exists is because as a
civilization becomes advanced, they
build AI and they collapse inside of
their own imagination rather than trying
to upgrade their bodies to deal with uh
interstellar radiation and all that.
They're just like, "Oh my god, why would
I do that?" Like I can have the exact
same experience or better because now I
can fight dragon fly. Exactly. So this
one feels like to me the more people
engage with it, the more they're going
to be like, "Oh my god, this is
unbelievably cool
and that they will want to do that."
Now, I think there's a religious war
that has to be confronted. Um, but I I
don't it is in no way, shape, or form
problematic to me that every human being
would have this because if I need to be
different than everybody else, I'll just
be that inside my virtual world.
I I'm not bothered that you also have
your world. And
yeah, you're spot on to the point of
course where you and I lovers of
simulation theory would have to question
if this has happened already, right? Uh
but but the but the but the the the
there are a few and I I accept that you
know the assumption I I sort of alluded
to is is an error but let me ask you to
to look at the uh micro details of this.
Okay. Uh not everyone has a vision pro
today. Most people have a uh quest,
right? uh so so there is uh there is I
one from a hardware point of view and
two from a software access point of view
uh there could be a massive hierarchy
there could be a massive amount of the
population that's actually instead of
giving UBI are given one of those okay
and that is by definition the easiest
way you can implement UBI sadly is to
basically say look we're going to keep
you alive we're going to give you
600,000 lives while you're sleeping for
the rest of your life. It's ethical. You
know, nobody dies. And by the way, one
of them you're going to be with a beauty
queen. Okay. And it's it's wonderful. Uh
that the this from a hardware point of
view, integrating with every one of
them. Of course, I think I'm fully
integrated with my AI today, even though
I still use my senses to deal with it.
Right. the the interesting side which I
really think is a problem of privilege
is that the world of 8 plus billion
people today is not America and it's not
the west it's not Japan okay and and you
really have to start questioning how
many humans in Africa will be g given
the opportunity to do this okay how many
people in the ruler sides of India will
be given an opportunity to do this okay
and and if you really add up the the
billions
six plus billion people in the world
that are not part of this incredible
uh uh uh advancement that you and I are
aware of. Okay. Would you integrate them
in there at all? Okay. Would you even
worry about their economic uh uh uh
prosperity or their livelihood at all?
Okay. So if if manufacturing becomes so
reinvented that you know no more uh
sewing machines are needed in Bangladesh
okay and Bangladesh starts to starve to
death
with any would any single entity
globally goes like hold on hold on
humanity is one entity we care about the
Bengales we're going to save them not
going to happen
do you realize that and so the religious
war I I so I agree with you that some
people will religiously choose not to
integrate but the the majority of those
who are not integrated are irrelevant to
the sadly irrelevant to the system.
Okay, they're basically an extra cost to
the system to integrate. So you can
easily see that this division will
happen. Some will be integrated and very
very uh advanced. Some will be
integrated and given access to software
features that make them even more
advanced at a million dollars of
subscription a month. Okay, which is
nothing for the amount of intelligence
you can get. And others will be told, go
back to nature, start farming again,
live a life where we don't really have
to worry about you. And that's the
division.
That's so interesting. Um, man, listen,
I understand. I am standing on the
technological singularity. I cannot see
over the event horizon. Everything I'm
saying, I say as a sci-fi writer, not as
somebody who actually thinks they see
the future.
Ever. uh when I look at that future I
say uh already like just take E-mod Most
E-mod's mission in life is to make sure
that a Bengali uh farmer in rural uh
parts of the world that they are getting
access to AI because the intelligence
matters so much. So number one I have a
base assumption that there are humans
that are just so compelled by making
sure that this is accessible to
everybody that it it will go as far as
it can. Uh, number two, I have the base
assumption that AI will continue to do
our bidding. If it doesn't, then
everything that I paint just won't come
to fruition. Number three, I assume that
the level of intelligence that AI will
achieve will allow them to capture the
energy of the sun extremely efficiently.
Uh, therefore, energy costs drop to
zero. I make the base assumption that we
have enough access to material resources
on Earth and given that Elon Musk has
already launched things to mine
asteroids in the asteroid field that
access to resources is not going to be a
problem. the cost of that because labor
will be free because energy will be free
uh then resources will be free that
there if those base assumptions are
correct
it's higher risk to not spread the
wealth than it is to spread the wealth
because the last thing I want is to be
in my sleep chamber running my
simulation and a bangal farmer has found
a way to find my body and kills me out
of spite
and eat it
so yeah like it. Well said. So, um
again, I don't know that my base
assumptions are going to end up being
accurate, but if they are, um we come
back to the only thing I have to worry
about is the moment of transition,
the transition.
I'm in total agreement. So, so this last
comment sum sums it up perfectly. Okay.
There there is eventually a utopia where
we all have our little headsets and we
all live a thousand lives and we all fit
prop you know properly in the simulation
if we so choose right uh but the
transition oh my god the transition is
really really interesting and and the
transition the way you describe it when
you're in your chamber and and you know
others are not that's a very very
interesting moment to consider okay you
know it is And interestingly, we don't
have to wait for patient 1000 to imagine
those scenarios and start doing
something about them. I mean, I think
you you nailed you you you hit the nail
on the head with your first question of
how fast AI is going. Okay. It is not a
question of if anymore. We know this is
going to happen. We know that this level
of technological advancement is going to
happen. We know what intelligence can
can bring to the table. So why are we
not sitting down to discuss this right
now?
Don't understand something I think you
and I should discuss right now is let's
say you're 17.
Uh you've got some decisions to make.
Um I just read a post I think it was on
Reddit. My producer gave it to me and it
was somebody who was like listen I've
spent the last whatever 30 years
investing in being one of the greatest
computer scientists in the world. I've
been coding uh I've worked at the fang
companies uh making hundreds of
thousands of dollars a year at the
height and I just got let go and the
reason given was
we've created so many more efficiencies
with AI that this entire department is
no longer needed. Um,
yeah.
How should a 17-year-old think about
approaching the world given that you I
would say anyway that it's unwise to
throw your hands up and just wait at
this point. You're going to have to take
action.
Um, so what should they do?
So, so the the the again I'm not smart
enough. I I'll say that openly. I I
don't know what I should do. I think I
should be very clear about that. In a in
a world where so many moving parts, you
can only hedge your bets if you want.
Okay. So, so let's begin with your
relationship with AI as a 17-year-old.
Uh if you know, if I told you uh that
you, you know, most people will say, do
you want to be a lawyer? Do you want to
be a doctor? Do you want whatever it is
that you're interested in, you want to
be an AI that, right? you want to you
you want to be the you know the best
that uses AI in the next few month
months or years to generate you know
graphic images or logos. Okay. Uh
because there is a transition where for
a for a while where a human plus an AI
will be better than an AI alone and you
know you can be that human. So that this
is to me my the my first immediate
opportunity right. Uh the the second
immediate opportunity if you ask me is
um uh you know uh really how can you
prioritize intelligence
not skills not knowledge uh not
productivity not money okay the biggest
asset that you will ever have is
intelligence and I will tell you openly
as an older man I am less capable of
learning all of the new tools that are
that that are coming in today than the
younger people that I follow who you
know will see manos come out of China
and then two days later they know
exactly how to use it for coding and
then claude 36 was it or you know the
latest one comes out and they
yeah all right yeah so you know they
know immediately what it is that you
know they can use it for and how to
program use it for programming and then
Gemini comes out with the better one and
there I don't have that speed but as a
younger person today. I think the trick
is to get yourself into that pace and
let yourself flow with that pace. There
is not a single tool that you will use
for more than a month at a time. But the
game is that you constantly become the
one that is aware of the next and latest
tool. Right? That that that's number
two. Number three, which is I have to
say a very uh um philosophical view of
the world is that we have for a long
time lived in a world where it is hard
to to know the truth. Okay. Uh from one
side because there is no real absolute
truth. You know, you and I who have a
lot of respect for each other will have
different points of view. By definition,
we're probably both wrong. But at least,
you know, not all the time that one of
us is right and the other is wrong. Uh
but but that we're entering a a world
where uh we're completely mind
manipulated. Okay? Every every bit of
info even intelligent people like you
are going to be getting in the next few
years are going to be coming from an AI,
right? And so uh and and and if that AI
is motivated by an agenda of someone
who's not very ethical, then you're
going to get a lot of lies. And I think
the top skill in today's world is to
distinguish what's true from what's
fake. Okay? And and this is a skill that
we had before the internet and lost on
the internet. And it's now time to get
back. But before the internet, we we
would go and visit 16 books to establish
a fact. Okay. Uh at the beginning of the
internet for all of us who love the
hyperlink more than they love anything
in the world, uh you know, we would
visit a 100 websites to establish a
fact. But then when social media came
out, we just believe whatever the
influencer says because she has a cute
butt. Okay? And and so and so the the
truth is we've we've suddenly lost our
ability to discern what's true and
what's not. And I think now is the time
to go back to that ability to debate
everything to ask for sources to to you
know I when I was telling you today
about the idea of the in comparison of
the Intel 404 and the you know the
latest microchips. I ran test uh uh
mathematics with the AI to prove that
its calculation was correct that it is
actually 26 to 27 doublings and that
this is the actual performance and so on
and so forth. So you have to establish
that ability of not everything they tell
me is true. Right? And and then finally
which I think can save all of us is AI
ethics is ethics in general. Okay. And
and truly and honestly uh you know as we
started the conversation artificial
intelligence is a is a an an amazing
power with no polarity. Okay polarity
doesn't come from intelligence. So you
and I do not use our intelligence to
make decisions. We use our ethical
framework to make decisions as informed
our by our intelligence. Right? And so
and so accordingly we we are at a time
where the absolute
uh scurce resource is going to become
abundance and it's going to make
everything else abundant. Right? So so
we're going to have abundance of
intelligence that's going to lead to
abundance of everything. The question is
what things is it going to be abundant
weapons or abundant energy? It's going
is it going to be abundant wealth
concentration or abundant wealth
distribution? And and ethics
are unfortunately rarely ever spoken
about. Constantly talk about politics.
We constantly talk about technology. We
constantly talk about money. We
constantly talk about capitalism, you
know, and so on. China and whoever and
right the the real topic today is if I
told you anything that you want done
will be done for free in a few years
time. Okay. The skill I need you to
learn is what will you want done. Okay.
And if we get to the point where all of
our decisions are not informed by what
is good for me, even if it's bad for the
other guy, because eventually that will
lead to the scenario in your comic comic
book where we start a war between us.
Okay. If we can get to that ethical
framework of let's agree what we need
done that's good for every guy and gal,
then I think we're in a good place. And
I and I I I have to say we messed up. my
generation, your generation did nothing
about it. Okay? And it is the the 17
year olds today that need to to rise and
say, "I don't want that world that
you're building for me. I want AI, but I
wanted to create a world of abundance
for me."
Talk to what do you think your
generation did wrong that we didn't
correct?
uh we uh we uh
we got occupied with the promise of
capitalism to the point where we set
role models for you.
Uh so it is I think it is absolutely my
my generation actually. So I think the
turning point for all of us in tech was
when Bill Gates became the richest man
in the world and and all of us looked at
that and said he's smart but I'm smart
too. Okay. And I and I can build stuff.
And we ran. Okay. And in in that
process, I think that um
that hunger, that race for more uh is
the is the main result is the main uh
reason for the world we live in today.
Okay. The the the world we live in today
has advanced massively uh because of
that. We can't you cannot deny the
incredible contributions of science and
computer science and technology and you
know industrial efficiencies and so on.
You can't but but but that I call it
systemic bias. Okay. You know the
easiest way to to to understand it is
you know I I told you I love cars. You
can you can take an engine and you know
tune it a little and get 100 horsepowers
more and then add a a turbo and get
another 100 horsepowers and then another
turbo and you know supercharge it and
you know use nitro instead of fuel and
so on until it it melts. Okay. And I
think what is happening is that we're
creating this constant
uh uh turning of the economic cycles at
a speed that is focused on enriching a
few of us that it is about to break.
It's about to melt. Okay. And and AI can
be our salvation because basically it
means it doesn't have to melt. Okay? we
can reduce the cost of everything and so
accordingly the debt goes away,
inflation goes away. You know, it
becomes easy for everyone to live. But
the problem is the difference between
the normal guy and the top guy is going
to be that my car is green and their car
is orange. Okay? And and that ego is is
the reason why we're resisting because
the top guy still wants to have a car
that nobody else has. Okay? and and I I
I think that we will eventually end up
in those utopian societies where we're
all a little more equal. Okay. But as
you repeatedly said today, it's the path
to get there that's going to be painful.
Yeah. Speaking of that path, um
do you worry about AI AI's ability to
subtly manipulate us even if it doesn't
have ill intent%
So, so the again I mean I don't know why
I'm so uh focused on the wrong sides
today. The the AI so far has been
learning from us
and we're the best at manipulation,
right? So, so, so the problem is it's
reflecting back to us all of the [ __ ]
that we've put out there. Okay? And you
really have to understand that the media
whether mainstream or social media is I
I don't want to say lie full of lies but
it is it is highly biased to one side of
the truth or the or to no truth right so
so so so that so that basically if if um
you know if an AI reflects that back to
you don't blame the AI right the beauty
however is that with reasoning with
mathematics
with uh synthetic uh training data with
all of that of those models coming in
with offline models with open source and
so on. What is about to happen is that
you know how you and I learned
relativity is we took the work of
Einstein and then we studied this and
then we did that and and we got it
right. We we built on a on a base of
mathematics that we knew from our math
teacher and so on. Now eventually
none of us if you think about it has
created relativity. We took it from
Einstein. But then Neil's bore takes you
know Einstein's work and says no this is
missing this and that. I'm going to work
on this and you know and other masters
start to do other things. This is this
is the Neilsbore moment of I mean Neilsb
is not following Einstein as big as as
impactful probably more but but you know
it's basically the moment where future
AIs will learn from AIS okay and and we
have no we have very little contribution
from now on right and and the the
challenge is is the spiral going to
continue to go down are they going to to
become more and more and more fake and
that becomes the data that populates the
internet. So they learn to become more
and more and more fake. Okay. Or is
there going to be a point at which where
they will appreciate absolute truth.
Right? Now we can influence that but I
don't think to a big extent. I think we
can influence that with all of the data
that we put put out there like this
conversation. Okay. With the humility to
say we think these are possibilities. We
do not know if they are. so that when
the AI reads the you know the
transcription of this they know that
they need to verify this this is not a
truth at all okay uh but but but but
there is a the next cycle the next cycle
doesn't have human data in the loop okay
and I think that cycle is going to blow
us away because truly the best
scientists that ever created anything
did not create it only with IQ or or
intelligence of some form they created
ed with intelligence and former data.
Okay? So, you take the former data of
everything that humanity learned, apply
the current levels of intelligence and
the endless megalops of of processing
power and see what what is about to
come. We're not just, which I think a
lot of people miss when we discuss the f
the immediate future of AI. We're not
just advancing the systems, we're
advancing the knowledge. Okay? So every
new code that is written by uh Claude
put out on the internet acts or on
GitHub acts as new inform a new code
that informs Manus and then every agent
that does something with Manis becomes a
behavior that is clever enough for every
other business agent that's produced by
Gemini to work right so so as we recycle
this hopefully like with humans we will
we'll recycle upwards Okay.
Do you think that AI is going to be able
to understand the laws of physics?
I hope so. I hope so. I I I don't see
why not, Tom. I I really honestly don't
see why not. It it think about it this
way. I I started to read quantum physics
when I was eight and then at the time
for my generation that was there were no
quantum physics for kids basically uh
you know but I couldn't understand the
mathematics of it until maybe 12 13
Jesus
because I
I still can't so you're doing great.
Yeah it is it's it's it's
bypassed me for sure eventually right
but there are still humans out there
that understand it. Okay.
Yeah. But my my assumption is that we
don't understand it. So we we have an
approximation. So just as Newtonian
physics wasn't accurate, but it was
useful.
Uh Einsteinian physics are uh useful but
not accurate. And what I'm wondering is
will AI ever be able to go beyond
pattern recognition and things that we
already know and detect patterns in
subatomic particles or whatever? uh that
allows it to intuitit the actual laws of
physics.
So, so I uh I the reason why I'm I'm
painting this picture is to say the more
the better they become at mathematics at
least they will uh prove our math.
Okay. And understand that for for
physics,
you know, you could be a theoretical
physicist where you could actually see
the world through the mathematics. H and
the experiments are you know another
part of the physics if you want. Okay.
So so when you when you really think
about it could they become that math
genius that helps us the trend says they
will very soon right you know you can
you can look at things like uh you know
Alpha Fold or uh the one from Microsoft
that does material design uh you know
it's incredible really it's better than
any scientist in protein folding or in
you know in in material science. So it's
it is it's going to happen. Now will
they have the the the abilities to have
the the the the instruments and the
machinery to do the tests and maybe
they'll instruct us to do certain tests
with certain observations. Uh you know
well I if if intelligence is not a
biological bound uh property then I
don't see why they wouldn't be as
intelligent as they need to be to
understand all of physics. I did a I did
a a very interesting conversation. I had
a very interesting conversation actually
published it on Substack this week um
about consciousness the nature of
consciousness uh of AI and uh and in my
mind the differentiating and I could be
completely wrong but if I'm right I beg
people to to help me out. I I think the
question of AI consciousness which we I
don't believe they are yet but if they
ever become conscious at any point in
time I think the overlap the actual
scientific way of detecting that is the
um you know is is if they can collapse
the wave function of uh of something
that's in superp position right because
you know so if you if you I was having
the conversation with my AI about the um
uh the delayed choice experiment uh you
know the eraser test basically in uh
what is it called? The delay choice
experiment where basic basically you you
you have particles go through the double
slit and and you capture the result on a
camera uh or a detector of some sort,
but you don't you delay the choice of
will you look at it or not? Will you
observe it or not? Okay. And if you if
you don't observe it, it's a it's an
interfer interference pattern. If you do
observe it, it collapses. It's crazy,
right? Uh but but here's the interesting
thing when the camera observed it or the
detector observed it which doesn't have
any consciousness in it uh it actually
didn't collapse the way the wave
function okay so the question is can we
ask AI to observe it
yeah can we can can we ask AI to observe
it right and the moment where when AI
observe it it collapses the wave
function that means they have some form
of intelligence sorry for
what an interesting way to think about
But
that's crazy. That's a That is a test.
So I'm looking I'm I'm I'm looking among
my my physicist friends to find someone
that can help us run that test. Uh which
I which I think will come out negative
for for today. They are not conscious.
But I think we keep we need to keep
running it until they they're not a
detector. They're not a camera anymore,
but they have some form of conscious
awareness.
Wow. Uh, that has hit me very hard. I
need to think about that. Look at that.
Uh, Mo, spending time with you every
time gets more incredible. Uh, I love
that. Thank you so much for taking the
time. Where can people follow along with
you?
Uh, first of all, thank you for
listening to all of my crap today. I
actually never speak about those things
publicly. So,
so yeah, I yeah, I I hope that people
understand that I'm not right. I'm just
sharing with passion what I believe
needs to be attended to. And I am
absolutely uh certain that I could be
wrong on all of that I share all that I
shared. But uh you know, I think we the
the main topic is we need to start
paying attention. We need the ones that
are smarter than me to find the right
answers because this is moving too fast.
uh where people can find me mogat.com.
I'm on Instagram is mo_gawa
and uh on YouTube is I think it's moget
official mo.gawa.official or something
like that. But if you search for moa
that I'm you know as I told you before
we started the the conversation I tend
to be on other people's platforms a lot
more than I'm on mine. Uh and uh yeah I
you know on my Substack if you want to
read a live uh go to mogat.substack.com
substack.com
and uh you know give me feedback on my
writing and it would be wonderful and
yeah thank you for having me. This was
intense.
Well, brother, thank you. I really do
appreciate it. It was wonderful.
Everybody out there, if you have not
already, be sure to subscribe. And until
next time, my friends, be legendary.
Take care. Peace. If you like this
conversation, check out this episode to
learn more. I think the AI censorship
wars are going to be a thousand times
more intense and a thousand times more
important.
My guest today is someone who doesn't
just keep up with innovation, he creates
it. The incredible Mark Andre. Trust me,
when someone like Mark, who spent his
entire career betting on the future,
says