Kind: captions
Language: en
sunzu famously said the Supreme Art of
War is to subdue the enemy without
fighting but in today's high stakes
tensions between America China and
Russia what if the ultimate Battlefield
isn't military it's economic today's
guest Edward Fishman former lead in the
state department reveals the unspoken
methods of the US economic Warfare
machine including the risk and reward of
weaponized tariffs the hidden Ripple
effects of sanctions and how you can
topple a government without firing a
single shot as China threatens to fight
America in whatever kind of War it wants
and tensions continue to rise in the
Russia Ukraine war this is an episode
you do not want to
miss let me ask is Trump making a
strategic error by putting tariff on
friend and foe alike I do think he is um
tariffs can be a useful tool right I
think for too long the US has not
protected strategic industries from
competition from countries like China
China has become the dominant player in
things like electric vehicles and the
most recent Administration put 100%
tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles I
thought that was a smart move because
what are you going to do if every single
electric vehicle on the road is made in
China not only is that bad for us car
companies but in the event that we're in
a conflict with China what are we going
to do right they can stop selling cars
to us so I think tariffs have a place
the thing I'm a little worried about
though when it comes to tariffs on
friends like Canada and Mexico is that
if you do this companies can't make
investments anywhere really that they
feel confident about besides being in
the United States you basically move
towards something that looks like
autarchy when everything is made
domestically from an economic standpoint
that leads to higher prices slower
economic growth but actually the thing
that worries me more is if you look at
history when States can't acquire
markets and resources through open trade
the temptation to conquer or go to war
with other countries goes up quite a bit
it's one thing to oppose tariffs or
sanctions on an adversary like China
which is something I'm very much in
favor of but then when you start
wielding these weapons against Canada
Mexico the EU Brazil everyone sort of
starts hedging and and you no one really
feels confident that you can have a
long-term relationship with the United
States how do you create a situation
where the US isn't vulnerable to China
cutting them off not just from electric
cars but from uh medication chips
whatever the case all the things that
give us our modern way of life so much
is manufactured in China without
tariffing to incentivize people to
manufacture in the US it feels like we
went so far in the other direction in
the globalist period that we really did
put ourselves at pretty high risk the
reason is that the global economy we
live in is still designed for the benign
geopolitical environment of the 1990s
the ion days of the 90s but we have
intense geopolitical competition between
the US and China principally but also
Russia Iran and other countries so I
think you're right I think we need to
incentivize domestic manufacturing of
strategic Goods things like automobiles
like Technologies like semiconductors
right and I think that's why the chips
Act was a smart move right you're
putting in $50 billion to incentivize
the production of semiconductors here at
home instead of relying on countries
like Taiwan right the thing that
I worry about is tariffs against
everybody because you can't go toward
100% domestic production on your supply
chain it's just not how the economy
works so what I would support would be
higher tariffs on countries like China
where we have really significant trade
deficits and we're really worried about
China weaponizing things like critical
minerals against the United States the
the reason I called my book Choke points
are these are areas of the global
economy where one country has a dominant
position there's very little redundancy
there are a lot of these toe points that
that China controls so I think taking
proactive steps to reduce our
vulnerability is is essential whether we
should be doing that against Canada
where we actually have balanced trade
doesn't really add up or make sense to
me why do you think Trump is doing it
and what do you think is going to be the
knock on effect it's a good question
he's doing it actually under a 1977 law
called the international emergency
economic Powers Act this law is
specifically for National Security uses
so if you look at what Trump is saying
about the Canada and Mexico tariffs as
well as the actual legal authorities
that are being used for them it's all
about this idea of fenel and migrants
coming into the United States he's
basically trying to use the tariffs as a
cudel to force the Canadian and Mexican
governments to take the migrant and
Fentanyl issue more
seriously that's not necessarily a bad
thing right I mean that's how you use
things like sanctions or tariffs to a
certain extent a 25% tariff on Canada I
think is out of step with the degree of
the fentanyl issue coming from Canada I
think last year there was a couple dozen
kilograms of fentanyl seized at the US
Canadian border so it's not a massive
problem on the northern border with
Mexico it's a bigger problem and I think
there's a fair question whether or not
there we should be applying pressure to
The Mexican government and I support
that the challenge with tariffs is that
most American production industries like
the car industry are heavily dependent
on inputs from places like Canada and
Mexico and frankly this is largely
because of the US Mexico Canada
agreement or the US MCA which Trump
negotiated during his first term with
his us uh trade Representative Bob
leiser um you know who who sort of
pioneered that deal and what it did was
it created a highly interdependent North
American supply chain for things like
Autos right so for Ford or GM to produce
automobiles in the United States they're
sometimes relying on Goods that are
coming back and forth between the US and
Mexico multiple times if you put those
tariffs on for Mexico and Canada it's
it's actually going to benefit companies
like Honda who are making their cars in
Korea with no us content over an
American car manufacturer who needs to
buy inputs that are going into their
vehicles from Mexico or
Canada okay so if you had to Steelman
Trump do you just see him he's a loose
cannon he doesn't know what he's doing
he wants to slap people around or uh is
there is there at least something
internally consistent to Trump where
you're like he's wrong it's not going to
have the effect that he wants but at
least I understand what he thinks look I
think that Trump clearly likes using
economic Warfare um he loves tariffs he
said it's the most beautiful word in the
English language he downgraded it to
Fourth people gave so much love God
religion maybe I think are the first
three having served in government I
understand the appeal of sanctions and
tariffs for one they're very easy to
impose back if you go back to the 1990s
for instance when the US had a embargo
against Iraq this is when Saddam Hussein
had invaded Kuwait in 1990 um to
actually do effective sanctions on Iraq
back then you needed 13 years of US Navy
ships patrolling the Persian Gulf 247 to
ensure that oil wasn't going out of
Iraqi ports right so that was a pretty
burdensome type of an operation what
happened is in the wake of hyper
globalization in the 1990s when you
start getting these deeply integrated
financial markets and Supply chains
today president Trump can sign a
document in the Oval Office and just
with that signature impose economic harm
on another country order of orders of
magnitude more than that 1990s embargo
just by weaponizing these choke points
like the US dollar Financial system like
semiconductor Supply chains like oil
supply chains so I think that there's a
temptation to use these tools because
they're powerful and they're very easy
to use just takes a presidential
signature and so I I understand why he
likes using them I think the other thing
and this is just so far kind of reading
between the lines of his first month
back in the White House is it seems like
Trump is a little bit more comfortable
using these tools against countries who
may not be able to retaliate
aggressively against United States what
you haven't seen as much of is really
really aggressive measures against
Russia or China and so it could be that
Trump is sizing up the situation and
thinking well what's Canada going to do
right they're totally dependent on us
and so so we could wield this cudgle
over the Canadian government and they
frankly just don't have an alternative
well one of my favorite quotes about
history is that the only constant in
history is the law of unintended
consequences what do you think the
unintended consequences are going to be
here yeah so I think in the short run
the type of unintended consequences
you'll see are higher prices right and I
think this is the thing that might lead
Trump to eventually backtrack from some
of these tariffs because I think a big
reason he was elected was to bring down
things things like the price of eggs
right um I think a lot of the things
we're buying from Canada and Mexico are
basic Goods right Mexico um is providing
a lot of the fruits and vegetables that
Americans eat in the winter time because
it's warmer there than it is here you
know Canada is providing you know
millions of barrels of oil a day to the
United States I think you it could wind
up worsening inflation um I think it
also could wind up um hurting American
manufacturers and I think this is
arguably the reason that Trump would
move away faster and just going back to
this car example right the Autos that
are produced in the US are not 100% us
content right most of the inputs that
are going into them whether it's the
breakes or the windshield might be
coming from Canada or Mexico so the
costs for manufacturers in the US are
going to go up and and if there are no
if there's a 25% tariff on Canada and
Mexico but a 0% tariff on South Korea or
Japan or Germany for that matter you
know BMW or Honda Toyota who are making
Vehicles outside of the United States
not using content from Mexico and Canada
are actually going to have a benefit
over us-made cars so to me this is the
biggest unintended consequence which is
you actually might wind up hurting
domestic manufacturing if you tarff
Canada and Mexico in particular a
company like Ford so many of their parts
are touching something in Canada that
they're going to end up raising the cost
on those Elements which ends up hurting
them but if I'm Trump and I'm trying to
incentivize people
to manufacture everything in the US so
hey you're doing the windshield up in
Canada but I want you to stop I want you
to start doing it in America yeah feels
like he knows in the short term there's
going to be the raising of prices but in
the long term it's going to push people
to come here to America to do their
manufacturing that's going to create a
lot of jobs and if he can create the
jobs faster then prices rise or prices
are going to temporarily rise he's going
to blame Canada and say all they had to
do was solve the fenil crisis if they
had dealt with that no one's going to
understand how much you're talking about
he's going to have a spin story for that
anyway uh if they had just addressed
that seriously if we had a serious
partner or they became the 51st state
we'd be fine there'd be no problem and
by the way you can buy there's all these
other cars coming in from all these
great manufacturers and they're doing
fine and in the long run trust me your
manufacturers are going to bring
everything home here it's going to be
better for you um given that he
isn't applying it to Japan where we get
a ton of cars he's not applying it to
South Korea he's not applying it to
Germany won't the prices go up on
certain things but migrate over to
others which buys him time to force
people's hand to bring manufacturing
home to the US look I in an ideal world
that would happen I'm I'm skeptical and
I think this is why you've seen things
like even you know unions for automakers
come out against these tariffs because
car makers don't have that much time
right I mean how long would it actually
take to build a fully indigenized supply
chain for Autos it would probably take
musk pull that together a lot FAS than
that I don't think that the US car
industry could survive that long on the
one hand he talks about using tariffs
for structural reasons like bringing
jobs back to America or raising revenue
for the government right but then on the
other hand he talks about tariffs as a
tool in negotiation right where he could
use tariffs and then trade them away in
exchange for you know Canada beefing up
uh security at the US Canada border
right for the first thing to happen for
any structural change like the
investment to come into the US you need
tariffs to be permanent right because
any investment that's going to be made
in the US in a new Factory you're not
going to make that investment if you're
going to say oh well these tariffs could
come off in two years and all of a
sudden I'm going to be undercut on price
by the Mexicans yet again right who
whoever building that factory has to
have assurance that these tariffs are
going to stay in place for at least as
long as it takes for that factory to get
set up to start making their product and
to start selling their product so it's a
long proposition right but then if
you're just using these as sort of cards
to play at a table that's not going to
then you know you're going to keep
basically the US investors are going to
wait till the very last minute to
actually start re onshoring their supply
chains right and so I think that
ultimately and look this is normal for
any us Administration there are always
different factions who want policies for
different reasons there are definitely
people in the current Trump
Administration who see tariffs as
something that are just good and they
should be in place forever and we should
never trade them away that's that is
like the prot Tariff faction right but
then there are other people in the
administration who see tariffs as a tool
that Trump can use as a dealmaker and
frankly I think that is personally where
Trump stands like I think Trump sees
himself above all as someone who loves
making deals he's definitely beat that
drum to death yes and so even with the
Chinese right you'd be surprised at what
he'd be willing to give up in exchange
for a big trade deal with with xianping
um and in fact he was prepared to do
that during his first term he got a
phase one trade deal with the Chinese in
January of 2020 and then that quick
unraveled after Co started what did that
look like like what was going to be the
give and take the Chinese were promising
to buy a bunch of stuff from the United
States um what Trump doesn't like about
the US Chinese trade relationship is the
deficit right we import a whole lot more
from China than China Imports from us
right and so there are two ways that you
could really address that right one
would be we buy less from China and
that's probably the the most practical
way to actually close the deficit what
Trump wanted which makes sense because
he's a businessman he wanted China to
buy more stuff from us and so the
Chinese were promising to buy large
amounts of agricultural products from
the United States like soybeans and
whatnot um most studies that have shown
sort of how China behaved since the
phase one trade deal show that China did
not live up to its commitments they did
not buy the goods that they said they
would interesting so did that play out
during the Trump term or that was all
after Biden comes into office CO's in
full swing and they're like oh
disruption can't do it sorry was it
something like that this deal was signed
in January 2020 I think even as during
2020 they weren't living up to their
commitments the US China relationship
collapsed in 20120 because I think uh
Trump believed that xianping lied to him
about covid which I think is true he did
lie to him about Coan ping lied to
everybody yeah right exactly so and and
I think Trump rightfully thought that
that was what undercut his presidency
and so um and so China never lived up to
its phase one trade deal commitments and
um uh Robert leiser who's the US trade
representative during the first term who
was really the architect of Trump's uh
China tariffs on the phase one deal as
well as the architect of the US MCA
which is the US Canada the Mexico
agreement um I spoke to him at length uh
when I was researching and writing choke
points and I think for good reason he's
very proud of usmca of the US Mexico
Canada agreement and and not quite as
proud of of the China Phase 1 trade deal
yeah I want to quote something you said
in the book in the years to come
fighting and winning economic Wars will
only get harder especially as China and
other countries strengthen both their
offensive capabilities and their
defensive fortifications and the US is
not going to be able to um be a one-way
bully and China has spent a long time
with a lot of different initiatives not
the least of which is the belt and Road
initiative uh building a bunch of allies
building a smaller Reliance on the
American economy becoming more
self-sufficient if I'm Trump and I'm
looking at that trade imbalance and I
know that there's a potential um hot war
that needs to be avoided how does he
play that game well so he just doubled
the tariffs they're now at
20%
um if he has a partner in Gin ping who
he can't
trust is this gonna work does this fall
flat like where do we go from here yeah
look I'm I'm glad that you pic picked
that out because I think there's a
fundamental difference between the risks
of an economic conflict with China today
than during Trump's first term I think
one of the the sort of biggest legacies
of Trump's first term and one of the
stories that um you know was most
interesting for me to sort of retell in
choke points is how Trump really broke
the taboo during his first term that
China was too big to sanction you know
for for decades China had been waging
economic war against the United States
and there had been very little reaction
from US presidents and I think they were
afraid of China like why not react so
many US companies were basically so
heavily invested in China
CH perspect exactly and so dependent on
frankly cheap Chinese labor to make
profits and those companies were so
influential that there was just never a
significant constituency to do anything
against China I also think China
skillfully took advantage of the WTO
rules basically where they joined the
World Trade Organization the US helped
them join the World Trade Organization
right after the turn of the the 21st
century and what they did basically was
they stayed Within the very narrow
letter of the law of the WTO but broke
the spirit of it over and over again you
know forcing us companies to transfer
intellectual property to them in order
to operate in the Chinese market you
know manipulating their currency which
of course this is something that is a
little confusing if you're artificially
devaluing your currency you're basically
making your exports more competitive
than other countries right and so what
China was doing was almost equivalent of
putting a tariff on us and that's what
they did last time when Trump imposed
tariffs on China they devalued their
currency it sort of offsets the impact
of the Tariff right and what happened
during the first Trump turn is is is
that China was surprised by all this
they were like hold on a second like US
presidents don't you know impose
sanctions on big Chinese companies um
but Trump did this a number of times um
he oftentimes has kind of walked back uh
from uh you know from sort of delivering
a knockout blow to companies like ZTE
and Huawei because shin
um was pretty skilled at flattering
Trump and and kind of persuading him not
to you know not to like you know deliver
the Cuda grass to some of these big
Chinese companies But ultimately like
Trump changed the Paradigm on us China
relations and Biden in fact built upon a
lot of the China policies that Trump put
in place but I think what's different
this time Tom is that you know that
trade and Technology war that Trump
started in 2018 that was 7 years ago
right and so China's had a long time to
prepare and the way they've prepared is
really in two different ways they've
insulated themselves by investing
hundreds of billions of dollars in
domestic self-sufficiency this is a
program called made in China 2025 where
they basically tried to um decrease
their vulnerability to these American
controlled choke points like the US
dollar or semiconductor technology but
then they've also built out their own
retaliatory capabilities and I think
this is the the area that I'm a little
concerned that Trump may not fully grasp
because I haven't heard him say anything
to this effect but he seems to think
that in any trade war with China we can
win because we import so much more from
them than than they import from us that
we can always impose more tariffs than
they can right because if we impose
tariffs on all $500 billion doar of
imports from China they only have 150
billion of American Imports that they
can tariff right but what China can do
now because of the sort of retaliatory
preparation is they can retaliate
asymmetrically they can impose sanctions
on individual us companies and in fact
when Trump put his first 10% tariffs in
place in early February China retaliated
not just with tariffs they actually
imposed sanctions on alumina which is a
DNA sequencer company as well as pbh you
know the American Apparel company that
owns Tommy Hilfiger um they put
sanctions on skyio an American drone
maker the largest drone maker in the US
and it caused the company to ration
batteries where now their Battlefield
drones that the ukrainians are using
they only have one battery per drone
because of these sanctions and so I
think that's what you're going to get
more of and you know even the antitrust
investigations into Nvidia and Google
that China launched I think that's
direct retaliation right so they can
pinpoint us companies and impose
targeted pain on them and of course they
can also restrict the sales of things
like critical minerals to the US which I
think have been in the news lately for
good reason because it's an area that
China has a complete dominant role in
yeah we are very much going to have to
talk about minerals and Russia and the
madness that's going on there but um
sticking with China for a minute so uh a
couple things on the table you've got
Apple making a $50 billion investment so
going back to your they have to believe
that something's going to be permanent I
have no idea what Trump said to Tim Cook
that made him go this is a good idea but
that to me is a huge signal that Trump
is saying something that is very
compelling now if they're G to just you
know shuffle and dance and hope that you
know they can make it to four years
before they have to do anything maybe
that's what's at play there um but also
in the book you had another quote the
gist of it was that the China and
America are finally waking up to the
reality that they are in a um
technological rivalry that is zero sum
and that the wild globalization of the
90s and the 2000s like that has really
come to an end and now that these two
really understand each other as pure
competitors if diplomacy fails you move
to economics but if economics fails you
move to kinetic we'll get back to the
show in a moment but first let's talk
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back to the show and for the first time
it really feels like we're on this
really Shaky Ground of diplomacy didn't
get us very far um certainly not if
Trump feels lied
to economic sanctions they've hardened
themselves against and so the final chip
on the table here is kinetic how do you
see like when I read the Tim Cook move I
I admit I concede that maybe your Trump
read is right and people are just going
to try to buy time but another reading
of this would be
that Tim Cook knows I can't say I can't
even acknowledge Taiwan as like a
separate entity have to be very careful
what I say uh that if anything if China
cut off um manufacturing there for us as
a company we're we're in the most
dangerous position ever so they're
diversifying now into India they're
diversifying theoretically now here in
the US um do you think that read is
plausible that people are realizing okay
hold on this is a Zer some game
technologically charged meaning it's
happening at the tech level more than
anything M uh and even our own
manufacturers want the Trump song To Be
Sung which is why they were all at his
inauguration because they realize we
need somebody to give us the economic
incentive to onshore what you call
friend
Shoring yeah I think with respect to
China I fully agree and that's you know
why I talk about the age of economic
Warfare right we've we've it's it's been
clear I think to anyone who's paying
attention that globalization's been dead
for a while right I mean that's crazy
man I'm really slow to wake up to that
you can't unravel a full economic system
overnight but when I say it's dead it's
the belief that economic relations are
win-win you really have to have you know
you have to be wearing some real rose
tinted glasses to think that American
economic relations with China or Russia
are win-win right I mean I think there
there have been zero sum for quite some
time in in certainly in specific sectors
I think with a country like Russia
they're Zero Sum in almost every sector
there may be a couple exceptions so
these tariffs these sanctions these
export controls that the US imposes that
China imposes that the EU imposes Brick
by Brick they're building a new world
economy that's what's happening it's
it's taking time right it's not it's not
overnight it's not like 1944 when a
bunch of world lead leaders went to the
Breton Woods conference in New Hampshire
and negotiated the terms of the world
economy it's a different process right
it's a more halfhazard process that's
happening Yeahs to me exactly and so I
do think that um companies especially a
company like apple where they're just
incredibly dependent on China um it is
within you know very smart move by Tim
Cook to try to reduce uh Apple's
exposure to China it's hard for them to
do just given the depth of it I was
happy to see this announcement so I
support decoupling um from China
especially in critical areas that
involve technology I think it becomes
much harder to decouple with China if
you're also picking fights with our
other big trading partners like Canada
and Mexico where they're not really
National Security threats you know
economic relations with Canada I think
are almost exclusively positive sum
probably the same with Mexico so you
know it becomes harder because at that
point you know you're you're picking
trade fights with all three of our
biggest trading partners right I'd
rather see a strategy where Trump
Corrals other countries like the
Canadians like the Mexicans like the
Europeans into a block a block of
democracies that can be stronger against
sort of uh Chinese Le block right and
that that's this concept of friend
Shoring that was a word that uh Janet
Yellen who was the treasury secretary in
the Biden Administration used but even
leiser who sort of the architect of the
Trump uh tariffs he put out an opad
recently where he made the he he was it
was an opad in the New York Times that
was explaining why tariffs are actually
good and I think he did this because
there was kind of a um uh an onslaught
of anti-ar uh writing both in the times
and in the Wall Street Journal and and
leiser was saying No actually they're
good but the argument if you read
between the lines was what we need is a
block of democracies where we all have
very low tariffs against each other but
then big tariffs on you know the
dictatorships like like the China of the
world okay uh uh as we go into the
Russia of it all one thing that I found
really compelling about your book is in
getting to look at the history of how
this stuff came to be I had the same
sort of shock that I had when I realized
that oil is a relatively recent
phenomenon like oil is like the last
hundred years and reading about
Churchill and realizing oh there was
like a moment where he was like wait a
second our naval fleet could move a lot
faster if we used oil instead of coal
and so he goes on this big pitch to get
them to switch over to oil and then you
realize oh wait a second this is why
they were trying to have relationships
with the Middle East this is all about
uh economics might it it wasn't a um
just sort of inevitable law of nature I
felt the same way about tariffs that the
Playbook sort of happened and people
realized oh wait this was really awkward
and last minute and it was like reactive
instead of being proactive but then a
Playbook started forming and so now
people know oh with an executive order I
can stroke this and I can um really do
damage to another country and I can get
them to to heed uh
given that Playbook of things that have
been put together relatively
recently what is happening right now
with Russia because as somebody who
didn't really understand the economic
Warfare of at all I was like sort of
dimly in the back of my mind but I
didn't really engage with it um my
initial reaction was why would you
weaponize the dollar like now you're
just giving them every incentive to say
oh we want to be a part of brics uh we
want to get rid of the hemony of the
American dollar we no longer want them
to be the reserve currency other people
like China started selling their US debt
like crazy and um I didn't I'm still not
sure what to make of the way that we
have treated Russia um confused even
more now with what just happened
recently at least as of this
recording with Trump and zalinsky
breaking down over the mineral rights
and then Putin coming in and saying hey
I've got some minerals too look over
here baby um what do you make of all
that is this Putin just trying to um get
out from under all those sanctions and
get back in the financial good graces
yeah look I think um just reading
between the lines and look I I've you
know dealt with uh Russian officials for
for many years uh you know back when I
was the Russia and Europe sanctions lead
in the US state department um I myself
have been sanctioned by Russia when I
hear Putin come out and saying hey you
know check out our minerals what that
tells me is somebody who you know has
spent a big part of my career
negotiating deals um with other
countries it's a sign of desperation
right it's it's a sign that he needs
something he doesn't want the US and
Ukraine to sign this minerals deal
because he realizes that his best chance
at getting what he really wants which is
sort of a get out of jail free card
where you lift sanctions on Russia and
even more than that a rupture in the
transatlantic relationship basically
breaking the US and Europe right across
the Atlantic ocean and destroying NATO
his best way of doing that is by
preventing this us Ukraine minerals deal
because he knows that Trump doesn't care
about the appeals to alliances and
liberal International order these are
things that when Trump hears it he says
you know I could care less right but
what he does care about is investment
for us companies you know uh mineral
resources for the US economy and of
course being less vulnerable to these
choke points that China has over the US
like crit IAL minerals like graphite
like lithium these are areas that China
dominates that we could potentially have
an even better and more reliable source
from in Ukraine so when I when I hear
Putin basically trying to you know sty
this deal at the last minute I I think
he realizes that zalinski actually has
come up with potentially a wedge issue
to get Trump back into the Ukrainian
side that of course I think it's been
called into significant Jeopardy after
the whole blow up in the Oval Office and
know it's hard for me to explain exactly
what happened um if I you know just sort
of watching the tape and studying it um
it does kind of seem like JD Vance um
was sort of picking a fight to a certain
extent uh with zalinsky and then I think
Trump kind of came to Vance's Aid sort
of in that fight had a very different
take oh interesting what was your
thought do you know Robert Green's 48
Laws of Power um I'm familiar with it
but I haven't read it okay so law number
one has never outshine the master uh
zalinsky needs something from Trump so
in this case love him or hate him he's
the guy that you don't want to outshine
you've got all the cameras of the world
on you the tenor in the room changes
when he turns to uh Vance and says um
what diplomacy are talking about like
Russia has um broken treaties over and
over and over and the thing is I feel
for the guy like he is on the front line
risking his own life watching people who
I will choose to believe because people
are going to say what they're going to
say but these are his countrymen dying
on the front lines and he's seen God
knows how many mothers who have lost
children have the weight of having to
send these young men uh into battle to
die and he's like this guy will break
this stuff all the time I'm not going to
give you mineral rights unless there's
some security guarantees we can talk
about that in a minute yeah then you've
got Vance who um takes the emotional
bait and is annoyed that this guy's not
being thankful enough and gets put in a
weird position where In fairness I think
zalinsky had a killer question though he
never should have asked it not not in
that situation you have a goal in mind
you were trying to get this war ended
you're sitting across from the guy that
can make it happen and you literally
fumble the ball uh any one of them could
have diffused the situation none of them
did but I feel like if don't outshine
the master know who you're dealing with
it's like law 22 and he was not thinking
about what Trump and Vance are like and
so he totally misplayed that he's got to
in another one of the laws I forget the
number but is um play the surrender card
like no when to show your vulnerability
know when to roll over and show your
belly and let that person like trigger
that desire for them to take care of you
and once I started looking at the moment
through Robert Green's lens of the 48
Laws of Power which is basically
makavelli you're like oh my God zalinski
misplayed that moment because if he I
mean you even said like X knows how to
play Trump and zalinsky doesn't and if
again I'm I'm not saying I'm on Trump's
side I so wish he had been the bigger
man and just gone uh look we're not
going to talk about that right now guys
everybody clear the room I need to talk
to these two with the cameras off and
then fine slap him around all you want
but the way that it all became
theatrical you've got JD Vance playing
to the crowd because I think he realized
he'd been backed into a corner and he
didn't have a great argument which never
should have been brought up but it was
and he didn't know what to do with it so
anyway just because is total cluster
[ __ ] but um I think zalinsky could have
just come in known okay I have to show
my belly I have to make them look like
the hero I've got to be grateful on and
on and God it would have been such a
different play yeah well Tom I'm kind of
surprised you've never done diplomacy
because I thought that was a brilliant
analysis to be honest shout out to
Robert Green yeah no I I I I agree I
think that I understand I mean look it's
it's hard to it's hard to put yourself
in zilinsky shoes right he's a wartime
leader his country's been invaded and so
I can imagine being triggered when you
hear things like you know no doubt you
were you provoked them or something you
know dude that [ __ ] was crazy he was
like he he did it or he's a dictator and
this is his fault I forget the words
that Trump used forgive me forgive me
but the sentiment was God awful but I'm
I'm I'm with you though I think that you
know us support for Ukraine is
existential for zalinski and so if that
means he has to come and show his belly
to to Trump I think it's wor worth doing
that um so I I I don't dispute what
you're saying um I do wonder if JD Vance
was also like you said sort of playing
to the crowd or trying to show show up
you know the you know the Maga folks
that you know he's just as as badass As
Trump is or something hard for me to say
you know but that that was sort of how I
interpret it just because it's so rare I
mean I like I said I've been doing this
stuff for a while I've never seen
anything like that right the idea that
you have like a a public diplomatic spat
in the Oval Office while the camera are
rolling I mean do you love or hate that
they did that on camera I hate it I hate
it I am conflicted I hate it but I love
it so much I hate it because the cameras
were what made it fall apart because
privately I think Trump could have and
I'm not saying this is good I'm just
saying it's what he would have done he
would have reestablished his dominance
he would have told him don't tell me how
we're going to feel don't tell me how
we're going to feel like he would have
shut it down and been like you're out of
your [ __ ] mind you need to thank me
right now and zalinsky hopefully would
have come to a senses and gone even
though have to eat crow in this moment
and not saying I should have to but I do
have to and would have done it because
there's nobody watching but everyone was
playing to their base the reason I love
it is because we live in an age where
for the first time transparency is
really possible and it's a double-edged
sword it's not going to be all good but
wow we can really see how this stuff is
done now yeah yeah no and look I think
if that was all genuine and there wasn't
any playing to the crowd I'm with you I
I do worry though at least in in in the
advance side of the equation there did
feel like an a theatrical element he was
the one that felt theatrical they were
all aware of their base watching for
sure yes and of course and people forget
this like zalinski is a democratic
politician too and it's it's hard for
him as well in Ukraine to be seen to you
know sit in the Oval Office as comments
are being made about his country's
shared culpability in the war when
anyone can see that they were invaded by
their neighbor and not re respond but
I'm I'm with you I think you know at
some point you got to of you you know
bite your bite your tongue and and and
and do what it takes to get your country
going what I would say though Tom is you
know there there's this narrative out
there that I hear sometimes that you
know the sanctions on Russia haven't
been that painful to Russia and
everything's fine and you know if you go
to Moscow everyone's buying things and
department stores and everyone's happy I
think what that tells you though is that
it's more something just about like the
limits of economic Warfare where like
it's pretty hard to impoverish an
billionaire oligarch right like that's
not actually something sanctions do but
if you look across Russian society and
the Russian economy it's in very very
bad shape right now I mean they've got
interest rates at 21% is this because of
the sanctions yeah so you got a
benchmark interest rate at 21% whoa you
can't get a home mortgage in Russia for
anything below 30% yo and so it's it's
at the point now where if you're a
Russian the only rational thing to do
with money is let it sit in your bank
account like there's zero investment in
that economy except for the government
investment in military production in
weapons and those weapons are just
getting blown up on the battlefield in
Ukraine right so they're not actually
building anything right like they're not
it's not investing in the productive cap
you know uh capacity of the Russian
economy so I think what Putin sees and
what um you know the one area of the
Russian government that's still pretty
technocratic that's still has experts is
the central bank so the governor of the
Central Bank of Russia it's a character
in my book named Alvar nabul she's been
there for over a decade I mean if she
lived in the US she could be like the
chair of the fed you know she's
brilliant Economist and well respected
around the world she knows that Russia's
economy is going nowhere fast they
project that they're GNA have zero
growth this year and so you know you you
know study Kremlin statements long
enough that usually means you know
something like probably a significant
recession as opposed to zero growth I
mean the official inflation rate's 10%
so you got to imagine it's quite a bit
higher than that oh God you just give me
the chills yeah right I so like you
think what we've gone through in the US
in the last few years is bad I mean
things are really rough in Russia right
now and I think Putin sees this
opportunity with Trump as like his one
chance to get everything that he wants
which is he doesn't have to give up what
he's taken in Ukraine and he can get out
from under the weight of sanctions
that's what he's trying to do whether or
not Trump goes for it I'm not so sure
because Trump obviously is always
attracted to these ideas of business
deals and I think that's why the
Russians are playing today that but
there really aren't business
opportunities in Russia for the United
States right now and in fact it's quite
the opposite I think the key sector of
Russia's economy is the oil and gas
sector right so if you were to remove
all the sanctions on Russian oil and gas
what would it do you'd have more Russian
oil on the market and more Russian
liquefied natural gas on the market what
would that do to American companies
American LNG the liquefied natural gas
producers in the Gulf Coast they've been
making bank because Russian gas has
stopped going Europe right I mean
they've taken market share away from the
gas proms of the world you know gas prom
is a big Russian gas giant if Russian
crude oil floods the market and you get
lower prices American Shale producers
can't make money at an oil price that's
below $60 or $70 a barrel so if you get
lower much lower oil prices you're going
to wipe out the American Shale industry
and so I'm skeptical that Trump will
ultimately go for this I understand why
Putin wants it I don't really understand
from a dollar sense perspective what's
in it for the United
States okay uh let me throw out a a
hypothesis here tell me if this is crazy
okay so I'm Trump I'm looking at um I'm
racing towards conflict with China on a
technological front I understand that
the future of everything Warfare AI
drones all of it is it's all Tech it's
all chips it's um it's batteries and and
phones it's the things that rare earth
minerals are going to be necessary for
the US is distressingly low in rare
earth minerals um my major players are
going to be China and Russia stroke
Ukraine I go to Ukraine first because if
I'm Trump do I care about the moral High
Ground I'm not sure but certainly he
knows how to read the public and the
public was on the side of zalinsky I
would say until recently where it's
become a little bit shakier a little bit
less clear um certainly the mega right
is got some question marks or some are I
think swinging the other way I'll finish
that thought in a minute um so you've
got this play where you have an
opportunity to rebalance your um
Reliance on China with at least somebody
else maybe you can switch entirely but
you you now have options and when you're
the art of the deal guy you always want
options Leverage is when you can walk
away and if you can't walk away which
right now we can't walk away from China
you you're really in a tough spot so
cool I go to zalinski public is going to
like that better he was aggressed on
plus everybody already thinks I'm a
Putin public puppet so let me go to
zalinsky goes to zalinski thinks he's
got a deal and theoretically if they can
be believed that multiple times zalinsky
has said we've got a deal only to then
bulk now given what was said publicly in
that meeting I have a feeling zalinski
has been very clear and Trump has been
very clear but neither of them
understand each other and what's being
said is Trump is saying um I'm not going
to do security guarantees while you're
at War that's crazy I'm not going to
promise that America will come to your
they're they're actively shooting at
your people right now what kind of
security guarantee can I give you so I'm
going to intertwine our economies I now
care about what happens to your mineral
rights so I'm going to leverage as an
economic Warrior I'm going to engage in
economic Warfare against Russia the
likes of which they've never seen this
is me trying to channel Trump and
zalinski is saying bro this guy has
broken treaties multiple times that
means nothing to me if you can get him
to do a ceasefire what am I supposed to
do with that he's going to just
disregard it so what I need I will
happily share in these mineral rights
with you because it's existential for my
country but I need you to sign on that
dotted line and so they just keep
missing each other where you've got
zinski who doesn't believe I would say
at a minimum or let's all remember
zalinski has a right ring as well and so
they're not going to love him coming
back and being like no no no Trump said
that he'll care now about our country
sovereignty because of the mineral
rights well did you get in writing no
well he was a little weird about that
promised yeah right so I think they'll
be super sketched so he's like wait I've
got to get this in writing like you
don't understand and Trump is like
that's just a it's a non-starter
so the thing that um I find hard to
reconcile is the part of me that despite
understanding real politique hates real
politique because it's so aoral and so
here we've got I'm setting aside the
NATO pushed up against his border which
if you have a take on that I'll
definitely like to hear that yeah but
you've got Trump uh excuse me you've got
Putin who's like you guys have pushed
NATO right up to my doorstep and this I
will not abide and so um we're going to
reclaim what he sees is his rightful
territory anyway m MH we're going to
reclaim that but you've got a dictator
who poisons his
enemies going into a Sovereign Nation
invading it killing God knows how many
people and we're all like ignoring that
all a sudden not everybody but like it's
suddenly like receding into the
background of the conversation and I'm
like whoa whoa whoa wait a second like
the reason we don't negotiate mineral
rights with him is the same reason that
we don't negotiate oil prices with Iran
like what's happening right now yes so
uh I I don't know how to reconcile those
two impulses in my own mind but here's
here's here's the thing that worries me
Tom is I you're what you're saying is a
sign of Putin's efforts working right
where it's like he's changed the
conversation like you got to wonder like
who's driving the conversation like
because the conversation was all about
like you would wouldn't even be thinking
about business deals with Russia as a
conversation that was separate and apart
from an end game to the war in Ukraine
right the sanctions the idea was you
lift them if there's a peace that is
tolerable that you know it's part of it
that's the that's your carrot you know
that's what you get to play the card you
play at the negotiating table you say
Okay Putin you know if you pull back
from this part of Ukraine and there's
peace for this number of days and we
start lifting sanctions right Putin has
kind of reframed the conversation where
the US and Russia are just talking
bilaterally without really even
considering the Ukraine situation and
your point about you know Russia as an
adversary and like this is like why why
are we not negotiating oil deals with
Iran I think is really well said and I
think like I'll even say it just my own
personal uh experience you know I came
at this from as being a russof file you
know I studied Russian history Russian
literature I loved Russian culture I
lived in Russia for a summer when I was
a student um you know it's hard not to
you know if you you work on Russia
issues not to see the allore of a US R
Alliance right and in fact us and the
Soviet Union were wartime allies during
the second world war the problem though
is every single post Cold War president
has tried this you know uh Bill Clinton
and Boris yelton were best friends you
know uh George W bush said that he
looked in Putin's eyes and saw his soul
you know Obama I think one of the most
catastrophic decisions he made was he
became president 6 months after Putin
had invaded Georgia in the summer of
2008 and then he said he was was going
to reset us-russian relations so he
basically gave Putin uh basically just
forgave the fact that he had just
invaded his neighbor and uh effectively
peeled off part of its territory in um
South Assa and abazia which are these
two Breakaway regions in Georgia and
then Trump again when he came in in
2017 um basically tried to excuse a
bunch of the things that Russia had done
Biden you know I think was probably the
most hawkish post Cold War American
president on Russia but when he came in
what what did he want he wanted a stable
and predictable relationship with Putin
the reason he wanted that was because he
said he saw the world the way you and I
do which is we need to focus on China
right the problem is you know presidents
don't get to just dictate the way other
people act right and he might want a
stable and predictable relationship but
what Putin wants is to rebuild the
Russian Empire yeah and so within you
know a few months of Biden coming into
the White House you have 100,000 troops
on the Ukrainian border and so you know
at some point you got to ask yourself
like are you willing to live with an
imperialist Russia right with a Russia
that's on the March that's conquering
neighboring territories not just Ukraine
but then also NATO members like Estonia
laia Lithuania Poland is that something
we're okay with is that something that
is you know something we can live with
in the United States and would be be
comfortable in that world my own view is
no that we can't be comfortable in that
world and in fact it's would be opening
Pandora's Box because as soon as you
allow that to happen
what what's stopping China from taking
Taiwan or going even further right um
and taking other territories in its
neighborhood right you basically get you
you undo the biggest accomplishment of
the 20th century after the you know the
catastrophe of World War III which is to
create a norm against the territorial
conquest by force right we that's how
most of History was right most of
History was you're a strong country you
just took your neighbor's territory with
your with your army right it's pretty
big accomplishment in human history that
we don't really do that anymore right or
didn't um and so I I do think that it's
it's pretty important to push back
against Russian aggression okay uh push
back against Russian aggression by
reteaming up with EU and funding the
life out of um the Ukraine so the short
answer is yes but I think there's
something that we should talk about
because it's it's not getting enough
play right now but it's really important
right so over the last three years the
US has given somewhere between 100 and
$150 billion worth of support to
Ukraine um the EU has given a similar
amount right around $150 billion to
Ukraine currently as we speak there are
$250 billion roughly of Russian
Sovereign assets sitting Frozen in
European bank accounts they're just
sitting there accumulating interest
they're never going back to
Russia why the hell has the European
Union not seized these assets and given
them to Ukraine the US Congress last
year in overwhelming bipartisan majority
passed a law authorizing President Biden
to seize the Russian Assets in the
United States and give them to Ukraine
in the US there's only like five to 10
billion so it's not that much right but
in Europe there's somewhere between two
and 300 billion so more than the total
amount of us support to Ukraine over the
last three years is just sitting there
in European bank accounts so I think the
the obvious solution here Tom is for the
EU to seize those Russian assets use
them to buy weapons from us companies so
it's good for the US it reev revitalizes
the defense industrial base in the US
which were you know has gone into
disrepair in recent decades and you give
Ukraine stable economic and Military
Support without burdening the US
taxpayer at all the reason I love this
is it it's good the Democrats will love
this because they want Ukraine to be on
stable footing and the Maga people
should love it too because Europe is is
is shouldering burden they're taking
these assets and it's good for American
defense companies right this is money
that it's not like the Europeans are
going to give that to European companies
to buy weapons for Ukraine the best
weapons are made by us companies and the
reason I think this is a great idea
isn't so much that you know Ukraine
fights on forever right what you do is
you change the dynamic on the
battlefield so Putin knows that Ukraine
could fight on if it needs to for five
to 10 more years and we just got got
over talking about you know 10 15
minutes ago that Russia's economy is in
a really bad place and I I think they
only have one or two more years a Runway
before things really go off the reels so
I think just by that sort of incredible
vote of confidence in the ukrainians and
saying look you're not going to wait
them out Putin sorry you can't do that I
think then you really get Putin in the
mind space for a real serious
negotiation problem right now is I think
Putin is still kind of sitting at the
table saying I have all the cards I can
get whatever the hell I want shouldn't
be that way the US Europe and Ukraine on
one side of the table versus Russia you
have a coalition that could get a very
good deal out of
Putin it begs the question then why
isn't Trump pursuing that it's a good
question I don't know because you know I
think Trump has
effectively shocked the Europeans out of
their Slumber and they're now Ser taking
seriously things like putting boots on
the ground in Ukraine right you have the
British and French saying that they're
willing to commit soldiers to a
potential peacekeeping y I hadn't heard
that yeah which is huge right I mean and
not only is that great for Ukraine but
that's exactly what Trump has wanted
like he wants the Europeans to step up
and do more militarily right in terms of
why he hasn't been pushing them to seize
Russian assets I don't know and it's
possible that some of this is happening
behind closed doors we don't know yet I
haven't heard a public argument in favor
of it um and frankly Biden should have
pushed harder for it himself I don't
think Biden could have gotten it done
because you know the Europeans probably
viewed Biden as too much of a partner
that you know they they figured they
couldn't listen to you know they could
ignore him if they wanted wanted to but
I think if Trump went to the Europeans
and said look the price of me continuing
to stand with you guys was you taking
these Russian assets freeing unburdening
the American taxpayer from this issue I
think the Europeans would do it that's
really interesting um okay so let me try
to do the internet's favorite thing and
mine read
Trump don't they ever love that you
might be able to do it let's see uh so
okay he has made public statements
that basically if he can't get the deal
done he's going to let them fight it out
he's obviously made very public
statements that this is a European
problem and they need to be dealing with
it but if I'm Trump and I was I wanted
to make sure that Putin understood that
zalinsky was a credible threat um I
don't know why he didn't really push
that agenda oh
man if I think like a writer and I
say Trump wanted to get the credit
himself that's why he wouldn't try to
make this a European thing like hey guys
you have have all those assets you
should freeze them give them to Ukraine
uh part of it might be the messaging of
I just want the war to end because if
you take Trump seriously and say okay
this is somebody who just wants to see
The Killing
stop I can't reconcile two things I
believe him when he says he wants the
killing to stop
and at the same time if you want Ukraine
to be strong so that you force Putin to
the table you would encourage Europe to
get ready like hey boys we've got the
checkbook open we're ready to go
um yeah yeah uh this is where I wish uh
we had chat with us live I'd love to see
if anybody has like a a different take
on that but the way that I reconcile
that is he wants it to have been him
that made the deal he doesn't want to
empower Europe to go make that deal and
leave America on the outside he wants to
control the negotiations and that means
promising uh zalinski in his own unique
way that no trust me if we intertwine
our um desire for the mineral rights
like if we're together on that then I'm
gonna do some unsaid thing at least he
hasn't said it publicly uh to keep you
protected but yeah at least live here in
real time I can't come up with argument
as to why you wouldn't other than that
why you wouldn't want Europe to be in
the driver's seat we'll get back to the
show in a moment but first let's talk
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now let's get back to the show yeah I
mean it's clear that Trump is very
interested in the Nobel Peace Prize I
think that's actually like you know it's
hard to read Trump's mind but this is
one thing that you know he's talked
about enough times that you realize like
it's kind of one of the few things in
life that he hasn't yet accomplished
that he would love to have so I'm I'm
with you but I think that the Europeans
aren't going to do this without Trump
pushing them to do it so I think he
still winds up getting the credit why
why wouldn't they if the assets are
frozen do they plan to take them and
just fund Healthcare or just use them
use them as like a pillow or something
yeah I mean look I think that the
Germans in particular have been wary of
this uh and the reason is that they
worry that it would undermine Financial
stability in the EU that basically no
one would trust the European Financial
system and the Euro um would be seen as
you know an unsafe currency to be in and
they don't think that's already happened
just by the
freezing they don't but I I'm with you I
I find it to be a little confusing um
what I will say though is you're about
to have a political shift in Germany
right this was under uh the the previous
Chancellor Olaf Schultz who was in a wet
blanket frankly a very very weak
Chancellor right the new guy is coming
in friederick Merritts seems much
tougher and so we'll see I mean German
politics are are complicated and so I
think you know we're not exactly sure
where things are going to head but um
it's very possible that the German
position could change I think generally
speaking though look every American
president in recent history has wanted
the Europeans to do more right uh they
wanted the Europeans to do more in terms
of you know helping Greece get out of
the Eurozone crisis they wanted the
Europeans to do more um in the fight
against Isis they wanted the Europeans
to do more with sanctions on Russia
right it's always like pulling teeth I
used to negotiate with the Europeans too
right because the Europeans are afraid
that Trump will actually cut the cord
right that Trump may be willing to go
where no US president has ever even
contemplated which is like abandoning
NATO right which I think would be very
bad so I hope he doesn't do that because
you think it would unleash Russian
aggression or imperialism
yes because they think that he might
might actually do that they've kind of
awoken from their Slumber right so if
this is some Grand strategy that Trump
is is actually he doesn't really want to
get out of NATO but he wants the
Europeans to truly believe that he's
willing to do it it is working right I
mean the Europeans are getting much much
more serious about their own defense um
I think that it's possible that the
Europeans could come around uh to this
issue of repurposing the Russian assets
for Ukraine and like I said the US
government the US Congress has already
passed a law it is the law of the land
that we can do this we have the
authority to do it in the US the
Canadian government has the authority to
do it um as well the British government
has the authority to do it so I think
you'd have the other big members of the
G7 the other issuers of the world's
Reserve currencies like the pound and
the Canadian dollar ready to to stand up
and do this the big question's been the
Europeans because you know most of these
assets are in euros and the thing that's
interesting Tom just like and this is a
story I recount in choke points actually
um and it ties back to something you
mentioned earlier about you know is
there a risk to weaponizing the dollar
you know most countries Hold the Line
share of their reserves in dollars right
60% of all reserves in the world are in
dollars that's why you call the Dollar
the world's Reserve currency the the
second place is the the Euro which is
about 20% right so the the dollar is
three times as frequently used in
reserves than the euro in 2018 Trump in
a series of a month um imposed really
significant sanctions on a Chinese
company called ZTE he imposed sanctions
on a Russian company called russal which
is the world's uh biggest aluminum maker
that was really catastrophic for that
company he wound up pulling it back both
that and the ZTE thing and he wound up
pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal and
reimposing sanctions on Iran this was
all in April and May of
2018 and that was kind of when the world
woke up to whoa like Trump is willing to
like really take some serious risks in
economic Warfare like shooting from the
hip doing things that other presidents
wouldn't consider and what did the
Central Bank of Russia do literally the
next month they took all their assets
out of dollars and move them into euros
and it's because they thought that you
know the US may not be predictable when
it came to economic Warfare but the
Europeans would never go along and
actually do this and I think that's one
of the the sort of little known
successes of the last Administration the
Biden Administration was they actually
got the Europeans on board for these
sanctions against Russia because that's
what Putin wasn't expecting right he
thought that oh maybe the US would be
crazy enough to sanction my central bank
but the Europeans you kidding me the
Euros they're not going to do that but
they did and as a result Putin really
wasn't expecting this AC of economic
Warfare that they were hit with in uh in
February of 2022 so how do company or
companies how do countries like Russia
like Iran how do they manage to survive
when they've got such harsh sanctions
it's a great question uh Iran it's hard
hard right because Iran is
comprehensively sanctioned like there is
very few as an American you can't do any
business with Iran you know we've got a
full trade embargo full Financial
embargo on Iran um so they're very
comprehensively sanctioned we also have
what's called secondary sanctions on
Iran so for instance if you are an oil
Trader who wants to buy a barrel of
Iranian oil you yourself are risking
getting sanctioned by the US so if
you're a Swiss oil Trader who buys
Iranian oil the us could sanction you
which means that are then cut off from
the dollar which probably means that
you're going bankrupt right so Iran it's
very hard and the way that they
basically manag to do business in the
global economy is through an incredibly
complex Patchwork of um you know
telephone relationships right and barter
you know trading literally bartering
trading um we trade you a good you trade
us a good in return and no currency ever
exchanges hands um there's a great story
I recount in my book Choke points in the
summer of 2022
the Russians seized a bunch of military
equipment from the battlefield in
Ukraine American military equipment like
drones and things like that they then
took that mil military equipment and put
it on a plane to send it to Iran in
exchange for about 500 uh million euros
in cash that then came back on the on
the plane back to Russia who so that's
how they trade right it's like it's and
because you can trade uh actual bank
notes right there's you can't control
that um but you can't make a wire
transfer for Russia it's a little
different because Russia's not
comprehensively sanctioned right I mean
the the sanctions on Russia are still um
I would call them patchy you know the
financial sector is pretty pretty
significantly sanctioned the defense
sector the oil and gas sector you know
Biden was pretty weak when it came to
energy sanctions on Russia wisely so or
was that a mistake I think it was the
biggest mistake of his Russia policy
whoa because what Biden basically tried
to do was he tried to maximize economic
pain on Russia without touching the
number one sector of Russia economy
which is oil and gas because so many
other countries were importing gas from
them it's because inflation was at a
40-year high in 2022 and oil prices were
over $100 a barrel and ultimately the
political advisers in the White House
won out over the National Security
advisers and they said we can't do
anything that's going to make inflation
worse or that's going to make oil prices
harder and hit Americans at the pump so
we just can't go there yeah and I think
look he was right that inflation was a
bad problem in fact it's probably a big
reason that kamla Harris lost the 2024
presidential election but I think what
it it did was it signaled weakness to
Putin and I think it allowed Putin to
have much more runway for this war than
he would have otherwise had so I think
Biden if he could go back in time
probably should have done much more
aggressive oil and gas sanctions right
at the beginning in 2022 if he had done
it right then it would have shorten
Putin's runway for the war and by the
time you have the 2024 election the
economy would have adjusted right you
would have you would have had things
like more Shale production in in the US
taking advantage of the market signal of
higher prices literally just going to
ask about that so how much of the drill
baby drill Trump mentality is going to
help us inoculate ourselves or make it
so that we can sanction them into
Oblivion if we so choose I think it will
help certainly and and and you know one
of one of the key aspects of why the
Iran sanctions leading up to the nuclear
deal in 2015 were so effective those are
the most effective sanctions
most effective Act of American economic
Warfare in modern times were the Iranian
oil sanctions from 2012 to 2013 in which
in an 18-month period the US takes off
60% of Iran's oil exports from Global
markets and locks up over a hundred
billion dollars of Iran's oil money in
Frozen overseas escar accounts the
reason that the US is able to do this is
because at the time Shale is pumping out
so much oil that it's replacing all of
the Iranian oil that's coming off the
market if Trump is serious about
American Energy dominance which is what
he says and he's really willing to just
unleash us oil and gas it's not enough
just to take down regulations and stuff
investors in the US need a price signal
they need to say okay we know we're
going to drill this well and we know
we're going to be able to sell it for
$80 a barrel or something like that
right and so I think that we Trump to
actually ramp up oil and gas sanctions
on Russia combined with the fact that
he's being a bit more LAX when it comes
to regulations on the oil and gas sector
could be a killer combination but so far
we haven't seen any evidence that he's
willing to to stick it to Putin this is
the thing that worries me is that you
know he's he's seems very happy to apply
pressure to
zalinski but like the guy who we really
need leverage over who's Vladimir Putin
we haven't seen as much all right super
risky but what do you think causes that
like people want to believe that
I don't know either Putin says
flattering things that Trump is somehow
getting Kickbacks or I don't know what
they think but um that he is very much
on team Putin do you think he's on team
Putin or is this a dog who sees one uh
potential enemy is weak and the other is
strong and so I'm G to bite the weak one
I do think Trump has a history of being
more
comfortable threatening small countries
than big ones right like he he does not
the level of kind of respect and almost
deference he shows to Putin and she
Jinping he does not show to Justin
Trudeau and volodimir zalinski I don't
know what that is but I do think that's
a trend right and it's not just Putin it
is also xiin ping who seems to have
quite a bit of Leverage over Trump um in
terms of Russia itself I think there are
few things at Play one is that the
Russians blatantly interfered in the
2016 US
election um they clearly had a
preference for Trump this is an
objective fact whether or not it helped
him win I think no one knows right he
may have won even if the Russians had
done nothing in the 2016 election Trump
may still have won right but the fact
that they did interfere in the election
that it was very clear that they did and
that Trump won I think Trump always sort
of worried that his initial electoral
victory was seen as illegitimate in some
way so I think on on on that simple
count he was sort of always a little
concerned about Russia I not want to
make him though tell Putin to [ __ ] off
like you don't have anything to do with
this like I'm the Big Man on Campus like
that I don't know look I've never looked
deeply into that I know some people are
going to take super exception to the um
Russia Russia Russia hoax thing that
that I don't know but when I look at
that um what do I think I my gut
instinct is that Trump understands who
is strong on the playground and who is
weak and it's so much more comfy to go
after the weak person yeah and
especially if also Trump really does
want to make America great again and
what like even if he only wants to
believe that so he can end up a Mount
Rushmore like I don't need people to
believe that he's doing it out of the
goodness of his heart but when you
really think about what motivates a
person he wants to be remembered as a
dealmaker as a peacemaker um as somebody
who really like reg galvanized America
um then all of a sudden it makes sense
like if you know X's gonna be important
you've got to keep him at Bay uh you
know that Russia at least
um they're important on the world stage
they're nowhere near somebody like um
like China
but they are certainly meaning the stage
um there might be there with Europe in
terms of he's sort of European and so
there's like I I think he's got enough
beef with Europe that uh there might be
something there but anyway that that
feels right to me that okay I know
strategically who I need to not push so
far that they become aggressively
antagonistic towards America I mean if
nothing else Russia still has a whole
lot of nukes totally so um to actively
piss off Russia probably not pissing off
Ukraine probably not as big of a deal
pissing off Canada I'm definitely not
worried about that pissing off Mexico
not super worried about that and I've
got like America behind me on the
anti-cartel stuff and the immigration
stuff so I don't know like all of those
feel relatively politically wise the
only one that has this big question mark
is the certainly the Democrats
despise his treatment of Putin and so
I'm always a little shocked that he's
still somewhat soft on him because he
has a perception problem if nothing else
yeah I agree and in some ways it would
be it would the easiest way for him to
silence critics would be to go out and
do something really tough against Russia
and you know two days into his
presidency I think it was January 22nd
um so not not too long ago though it
feels like a lifetime ago he put out
this post on TR social saying um that if
Putin doesn't end the war he's going to
face incredibly high levels of tariffs
and sanctions and I think he signed off
saying you know Putin can do this the
easy way or the hard way and the easy
way is always better and for Russia
Watchers like me this really uh you know
raise my antenna because I said I've
never heard Trump say anything like this
right I mean you go back throughout his
entire first term he's never said
anything even remotely threatening
against Russia but this was a very clear
almost an ultimatum that was delivered
on true social we haven't seen anything
really follow up from that um there's
not been any action to back that up so I
don't know where that came from but in
some ways Tom I think if he were to do
more of that it would a give the us a
little bit more leverage over Russia and
B silence some of those domestic critics
who are saying wait why is he you know
so like unwilling to criticize pu yeah
um I think the other thing though and
this is this is important I
think seems like he has some affinity
for Putin and
Russia he clearly hates zinski right um
and and I think that he Associates
zinski with his first impeachment right
because it was all about a phone call
that he had had with zilinski um
obviously zilinsky wasn't the one who
pushed for his impeachment or something
but he's associated with that and I do
think that um there was some concern
certainly JD Vance has this concern he
said as much in the Oval Office that
zalinsky actively wanted K Harris to win
the election and so I think that Trump
does not like zilinsky as a human being
and probably has better feelings toward
Putin and we've we know that Trump is a
very um you know kind of relationship
based guy right like he he thinks that
you know us China relations are really
Trump G relations you know yeah that's
interesting um and so I think that
there's some element of that too very
interesting all right I'm uh deeply
interested in cryptocurrency especially
Bitcoin how much does that which strikes
me as a largely youth-led movement yoush
uh LED movement to reimagine the
financial system how much does that
erode economic Warfare and make it
impossible because if they have a
totally separate system um are they
going to be able to impose the kind of
sanctions that they can now yeah really
really important question so
again the choke points in the title of
my book are these parts of the global
economy in which one country has a
dominant position and there's very
little redundancy so right now in
finance the dollar is the only game in
town right I say in the book trying to
do business across borders without
access to the dollar is like trying to
travel without a passport you can't do
it
right what I will say though is that
choke points are not immutable they come
and go in fact they're created by
entrepreneurs they're cre Creed by
businesses who are building new products
that beat the old guys and then all of a
sudden governments realize that wait I
have this resource at my
disposal do I think we're on the verge
of a fundamental shift in the way
payments happen in the United States yes
I do I think that the current
dollar-based payment system that we rely
on for international trade and even when
two non- US countries even when India
and Saudi Arabia are trading with each
other they're using the dollar it's
going through a respondent bank account
on Wall Street right that process was
built in the 70s and it still takes days
to clear International Bank transfers
using stable coins or Central Bank
digital currencies this process could
take
seconds it's a better process right I
think that digital currencies whether or
not they're cryptocurrencies or stateb
digital currencies will disrupt
International payments in the next 5 to
years what I will say though is that
that doesn't necessarily mean mean that
the US will have less power if it's a
digital dollar or a stable coin that's
pegged to the dollar or a US company
that is putting out this digital payment
system the US government may have even
more leverage to wage economic Warfare
because all of a sudden these things are
all these transactions are happening in
bits and bites that could be going
through US servers that are you know
companies that need to comply with us
law and in fact the single biggest
sanctions enforcement case of the last
few years was a $4 billion doll fine
against binance the cryptocurrency comp
uh company which the CEO also had jail
had jail time right it was a $4 billion
doll fine so clearly the the long arm of
the US sanctions enforcement State
applies to crypto the thing I'm worried
about is that it could be China that
wins this race and at least when it
comes to stateb digital currencies the
the the currency in the lead is the
digital RM
you know China launched a central bank
digital currency um about four years ago
the FED has not done anything like this
um and the digital R&B is by far and
away the leader in this space China has
also created a platform called embridge
where um different central banks can use
their own digital currencies to settle
trade between each other so that example
I used before of Saudi Arabia and India
trading with each other if they're using
mbridge they don't have to go through a
corresponded bank account in Wall Street
and that trans transaction could clear
in a few seconds instead of a week so I
think it's time for the US to get in the
game we need to win the race for digital
currencies for us to retain this
leverage and we actually have to take
steps in my view to actively undermine
these projects that China is putting
forward we shouldn't allow us Banks to
participate in China's alternative to
Swift you know there's a a program that
China has called sips or cips the crossb
interbank payment system that's an
alternative to Swift which is the um
Financial message service that most
banks use today right now US Banks can
participate in this I think that's
pretty foolish so I think the Trump
Administration if they're smart will
both do what they can to ensure the US
wins the race for the kind of the
payment system of the future and also
take steps to prevent China from from
Gaining ground interesting now uh I
don't know enough about the digital R&B
but is I assume it's a cbdc m okay and
are you saying the US should do one I
think we should yes Q people going crazy
in the feed uh okay so I have a super
negative outlook on cbdcs from a just
control standpoint uh given the Biden
administration's absolutely um anti-
crypto stance debank people all of that
like that feels like some real 1984 [ __ ]
yeah so do you see a difference between
that and and a stable coin like are they
either one you're happy with or you're
like no no no it needs to be a cbdc look
I I think that if you had a stable coin
that was actually as good as a dollar
right and I think that so far it's it's
hard to say because the volumes aren't
big enough to really be tested right I
think it would be just as good as a cbdc
so what I'm what I'm really saying is we
need the us to win this race I
personally I'm a little skeptical
that a privately organized stable coin
could compete or could be treated as the
equivalent of a US dollar with the full
backing of the US Federal Reserve if it
could bu you know more power more power
to whoever is able to do that it's just
it's it's it would be historically
unusual for that to to work and I worry
that as we sort of sit here in the US
debating whether or not we should have
this China's actively gaining ground
with their own State back to digal
currency don't you think that's like
some evil empire stuff though where
they're like matching it up with all
their uh desire for control and their
social credit score like it feels so
dystopian it is dystopian and that's why
I think we need to defeat it right and I
think it's you can't be China China like
you can't do a more controlling cbdc no
but I'm not saying so you could build
safeguards into R cbdc right you know
tell me more what how do we build
safeguards from well you shouldn't I
think the US government shouldn't just
be able to cut off American citizens
from bank accounts that's crazy is
should we be able to Bar foreigners from
using our Central Bank digital currency
of course that is what sanctions are for
right why why should we allow Iran to be
using um tether to fund its nuclear
program that doesn't make any sense to
me you know what do you think about now
this may create a choke point that I'm
going to be uncomfortable with but what
do you think about so if a stable coin
is back by say us treasuries um one to
one does that meet the needs you're
trying to get to where we can stop
foreign
adversaries but still not trip up a
citizen or does that still just give
them too much control where they can say
I don't I don't even know how they would
stop them from using debt but presumably
they could well this is a broader point
like I I find it interesting and this
could be my own background you know I'm
I'm one of the the few people who I've
I've worked in government and I've
worked in Tech so I've seen both sides
uh both sides of the equation and I find
it interesting that some people are like
oh it would be so terrifying for my
whole life to be dependent on you know
the Federal Reserve right and they could
you know freeze my bank account right
but they're totally fine with you know
Mark Zuckerberg potentially being able
to freeze their bank account you know
and because of something like Libra
you're talking about yeah and actually
Libra plays a role in my story one of
the things that's really fascinating
about Li about Libra is that Stuart Levy
who is actually the brought in to be the
CEO of Libra which then became DM
pioneered US Financial Warfare he's the
one who created the the Iran sanctions
Playbook that's interesting in the in
the 2000s and 2010s uh for people that
don't know what Libra is please let them
know so Libra was a Facebook backed
digital currency That was supposed to be
basically something that could
eventually be as good as the US dollar
and the US government actively
undermined it I think Janet Yen the
treasury secretary in the Biden
Administration is the one who sort of
put the nail in the coffin where she
told the Libra folks that she wasn't
going to support it and I think there
was a lot of concern in Washington about
the power that Facebook could have and
we're talking about you mentioned you
know what would a stable coin that was
fully backed by us treasuries um you
know would that be um a serious
competitor to the dollar I think there
are very few companies that have the
balance sheets to actually do that
credibly Facebook was one of them right
I mean meta one of the you know the most
valuable companies in the world
potentially could actually do this and
given their user base between all of
their various apps I think it was a real
threat the thing I I think is actually a
little bit tragic is you know knowing
Stuart Levy personally um he's literally
the founding father of American
sanctions policy he is as patriotic as
they come he was appointed by George W
Bush in 2004 and he was kept on by
Barack Obama in
2009 if he's running the thing I wasn't
particularly worried about it being used
to fund uh Hamas or Hezbollah um in fact
quite the opposite I think that was a
good chance for the US to actually have
digital currency Innovation that
complied with our national security
priorities the thing I worry about now
is some of these other stable coins that
don't have anything like that level of
seriousness and compliance at the top
they are being used you know for very
very nefarious purposes and that's why
you see um you know you saw binance get
into the trouble that they got into
because they were being their uh
platform was being used for all sorts of
bad
problems yeah crypto is one of those
where I'm very glad that it exists from
the ability to opt out of inflation uh
but I'm always shocked that governments
allow it it's uh it's one of those where
I'm like well it's pretty powerful to be
able to print money I hate it I am
violently opposed to it but I get why
they want to do it yeah the thing that's
interesting and one of the um another
interesting sort of story I tell in
choke points is you know the way we got
the current Financial system we have
today where the dollar is just
everywhere right I mean it's you again
you need it to operate in the global
economy it really came about in the
1970s with the when Richard Nixon pulled
the dollar off of the gold peg in 1971
it's called the Nixon shock where he
gave a speech basically saying effective
right now uh do the dollar is no longer
convertible at $35 an ounce for gold and
that was the central pillar of the
Breton wood system the economy the
global economy built after World War II
right a big reason that that happened
was this thing called the euro dollar
market it's a very jargony word but
basically what it meant was in the 60s
and in the in into the 70s European
Banks started issuing dollars that were
not backed by the Federal Reserve
because they're European Banks they're
not regulated by the US government it
was effectively an illicit Market it was
similar to
crypto and the US government could have
easily shut it down right they could
have told the London Banks who were
issuing dollars these aren't dollars you
know what are you doing here but we
actually came to like it because it
wound up being a way for us to plug the
deficits that we were running up with
the Vietnam more and so over time this
sort of like illicit Market the euro
dollar market gets the stamp of approval
by the US government and becomes like
the central infrastructure of the Global
Financial system so in some ways I think
there's an interesting parallel to what
you're seeing with crypto today where
the private sector sort of creates this
like you know semi- illicit Market
that's like these like Pirates you know
who are creating it and then all of a
sudden the US government says wait we're
going to assert control over this thing
and we're going to use it to our own
purpos
uh I mean the whole idea behind Bitcoin
is that they won't be able to do that
now the other stuff that that I have
less conviction on but the idea with
Bitcoin is that because they have broken
free of the gold standard and now can
print as much as they want they're still
stealing your buying power they are
taxing your buying power I'll use a
friendlier word um and Bitcoin was a
respon that so man if if any one
government is able to uh get enough of
the network I suppose it's possible but
it seems highly unlikely at this point
so fingers crossed because that is while
I hate the idea of treating it like a
life R you don't know me well enough to
know how much my audience has heard me
rail about inflation uh money printing I
think it is a grand evil
um Bitcoin they call it the life raft I
hate that because the average person
doesn't um one it's too volatile still
and then two the average person just
you're asking them to take a huge gamble
on something that's only been around for
you know less than two decades so uh I
hate that people need a life raft but at
least there is one I'm with you by the
way on inflation I think in some ways
you know many Americans who are
experiencing inflation for the first
time really in the last few years
because we had been going through such a
long period of price stability but
inflation is the is the kind of the
rising tide that sinks all boats right
it's bad for everyone it's bad for the
poorest it's bad for the richest and so
but if you've got a mega yacht that
water can rise a lot farther before you
feel it that is true that's true and so
look I I think that um I think that it's
it's high time for us to take these
issues seriously and worry about
inflation worry about just printing
money willy-nilly worry about fiscal
discipline I think the thing that is a
tough pill to swallow though is the way
for to deal with these things is through
increasing taxes right I mean it's very
challenging for me to see how the US
government can stop being so dependent
on debt without higher taxes I mean
cutting spending is obviously a good
thing I I think that's well you know
warranted and I hope but do you think
higher taxes on the current amount of
GDP or you're saying increase GDP so
that there's more tax revenue coming in
you need you need both right I I think I
think the idea that you can grow the
economy so quickly that you can lower
taxes and raise more money is a Fool's
erron it's it's something that um I
would love to to happen but it's like
you know when I was running for
president of my fifth grade class and
promis everyone more recess you know
it's it's it's not going to happen you
know you might get elected saying it but
it's you know and this is this has been
the story I think of a lot of
presidencies in the last 30 or 40 years
where presidents come in saying that
they're going to take um you know
deficits seriously and debt seriously
and then they lower taxes and they just
worsen the deficit and you know it's
actually only in the 90s where the last
time we had a balanced budget so I think
these things are important um I think
it's important to cut spending there's
definitely some waste Fraud and Abuse in
the US government that I hope is cut but
if you look at the main spending
categories of the US government it's
defense which I think if anything needs
to grow given the geopolitical
environment it's Healthcare which we've
got an aging Society there's not we
can't there's nothing we can do about
that and we cover everyone who's 65 and
above I think for good reason and it's
Social Security right all the other
stuff is is Tiny relative to those three
categories could you cut some spending
yes but the real thing you need to do is
both grow the economy faster and not
only raise taxes but I think more
importantly is simplify the tax code
right I mean now you're singing my song
yeah I think like I mean I don't know
about you but you know you in some ways
you're just like I don't care if I'm
taxed more but just like make it easy
like tell me that that I'm just going to
be taxed clear percentage on what I make
I'll be very very honest so because I
live in California I'm uh taxed at over
50% so I I am too by the way in New York
it's terrible it's very very painful uh
so here's my take on that if you tax the
wealthy at 100% you still don't solve
your spending problem so given that you
can tax them literally at 100% and you
don't solve the problem you have a
problem that needs a solution other than
more tax uh I don't know that lowering
taxes is the right answer answer but I
will say that you're going to have to
increase GDP and you're going to have to
find a way to balance your budget given
that now why do I say that because uh as
you said the servicing the debt is
rapidly it just surpassed your military
spending it will surpass all of your
entitlements it it will become a beast
by the if we keep spending at the
current rate that we're spending deficit
spending by the 2040s it's like it is
your biggest expense by like some Gres
margin so it it is a snowball that only
gets bigger so it it is not optional to
uh get your spending in line so you
either have to do it by making more
money and again you can tax a rich at
100% it won't get you there so for
people that that want to pull that lever
I get it but uh it's it doesn't actually
get you there also the vast majority of
humanity does not understand the
difference between being a billionaire
on paper and having a billion dollars in
your bank they do those it's Phantom
money they would have to sell their
shares in their company which they may
or may not be able to do and as they
start selling it's going to drive the
price down uh so yeah it this is a very
complex issue that comes back to as
Milton fredman said there's no such
thing as an unbalanced budget if you're
spending Six Trillion they are taxing
that money in the form of inflation if
they're only getting in tax whatever 4.6
so man uh here's where I wouldn't mind
being taxed more if the outcome comes
were awesome Yep and the outcomes are
trash and so I've lived in La now for 30
years more and I'm just watching it
mooving the wrong direction and um
companies are fleeing dude in and out
the burger joint is now moving to uh
Nashville I think oh no so yeah so it's
like not California anymore now no dude
they
are they are making mistakes of the most
egregious kind not recognizing the
second and third order consequences
you ta ta tax and it like is my outc uh
people they vote with their feet yep and
we're seeing that happen I'm I'm I'm
with you I think we need to demand the
best government that we possibly can get
right because every single tax dollar we
have I'm I'm worried about Doge um to be
honest because I think that what they're
doing and just to be clear um what
they've done so far is they've given
orders to fire all the probationary
employees so what is a probationary
employee it's somebody who's been in the
US government for less than two years so
it means that they don't yet have Civil
Service protections so you can just fire
them
right these are recent law school
graduates recent business school
graduates recent public policy school
graduates there are people who are
willing to work 12 to 16 hour days they
don't have kids uh they are extremely
smart they're hungry it's basically like
you're firing all of The Highest
Potential hardest working people and the
cheapest employees you people are
getting paid $60,000 a year and sparing
the actual Fat Cats you know the people
who've been there for 30 years who may
work six hour days if that and are
making $150,000 a year or even $170,000
a year so I think the
indiscriminate aspect of it is is
problematic and I and I can say this
firsthand because I've worked in the
government and I know the people who
work the hardest are actually young
people right it's you go to Washington
you'll be surprised by how many 25 and
30 year olds are doing really big things
because in order you know there's a US
Government you know even with compared
to the biggest tech companies there's no
problem set like what the US government
has to deal with right there's a
limitless amount of things to do and so
if you're a young person who's hungry
there's a lot of opportunity for you
there so I worry about firing the
highest potential smartest people and
I've seen it even now I mean I I teach
um I teach a graduate uh at The Graduate
School at Columbia University and I've
been preaching to my students for years
that you know you could go make a ton of
money on Wall Street you could make a
lot of money in Silicon Valley and I in
fact it's great go ahead and do that but
now while you're young and hungry go
work in public service you know be
patriotic make your country better
deliver you know um National Security
wins for the American people
and I'm grateful to say that I have over
a dozen of my students who are at places
like the treasury Department or state
department or Comm Commerce Department
doing really important things working on
outc competing China in in Tech or
working on you know making the US
independent on foreign sources of energy
and critical minerals and these these
students of mine are worried that their
jobs are at risk and for no reason not
because of their performance but just
because you know these are the only
people that you know Doge thinks they
can fire because they've worked there
for two years so if if if you wanted to
do a top to bottom Personnel review in
which you fired the least productive
workers and you raised the standard
raised the bar for what you expect of a
US government employee I am all for it
we need the best and brightest in our
government but I think the way that it's
been handled so far I don't think is
actually driving toward that goal yeah I
mean I'm I look at it and see the
greatest Capital allocator certainly of
our time you've somehow managed to get
him for free in the government uh who's
done the largest as far as I know the
largest corporate turnaround ever uh and
he's doing what he can in terms of if
you've got some people that are
protected and there's no way that you
can fire them well obviously he's not
going to focus on that because he's got
to deliver results quickly you have a
political reality to face which is
you've got to get some wins under your
belt fast um the thing that I'm drawn to
though with doge is just give me
transparency I want to see it all I want
to see where this is going I want to see
all the dumb Stu like uh the rate that
people can retire is tied to the speed
of the elevator in the M shaft that they
put the paperwork in I still can't
believe that's real uh that's crazy and
so getting somebody in there and
starting to pull this stuff into the
light and Publishing out on a website
these are all the things that we're
doing um I think that's good some of it
is probably just theatrical and isn't
like the real substantive thing but at
least capitalizing on this moment where
people really want change and going cool
like we're goingon to mix this up we're
going to start forcing transparency
we're going to start holding people
accountable and then hopefully over time
to your point I mean you outlined this
so well in the book that you start doing
these things in the beginning they're
like these awkward sanctions and they
work a little bit but they had this
knock on effect that you didn't realize
what happened and so now you address it
and You Begin hardening it over time if
we can over time start doing like you're
saying I mean one thing Elon has said is
pay government employees more not less
because there's a corrupt forcing
function where they're living in
Washington DC one of the most expensive
places in the world with a terrible
school system so they want to send their
kids to private school so it's like oh
God if I take this lobbyist money and
you get this system that deranges itself
um so getting everything transparent
getting everybody to want the government
to be audited which I still can't
believe people are pushing back on that
um that kind of change at least
directionally is going in the right
place I'm all in favor of of
transparency I think that transparency
is wonderful and I encourage that to
Pivot back to the books I'm glad I'm I'm
glad you brought this up I think that
there is actually something Doge could
accomplish when it comes to economic
Warfare and geopolitical
competition um I had the Good Fortune
during my time in government uh to do a
tour of Duty in the Pentagon where I
work for the chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff Marty Dempsey is's a you
know four-star Army General and um I was
kind of the the token civilian who got
to got to work on his strategic planning
team and it was helpful because I got to
see what the US Military and the
Pentagon does when it comes to planning
for the wars of tomorrow you know when
you think about something like a
potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan
right actively every year they're not
only coming up with different military
options that could be used in such a
scenario they're rehearsing them that's
what a military exercise is you're
actually testing this out right you're
literally going out there and you know
seeing what what might go wrong you're
War gaming these things and you're
updating your plans right your troops
are professionally recruited and trained
over Decades of their lives right this
is why we have the most lethal fighting
force in the world when it comes to
economic Warfare I mean we are a
patchwork right you've got the treasury
Department you've got the Commerce
Department you got the state department
you've got different officials at the
White House frankly if you read my book
it's focused on individuals it's focused
on people like Stuart Levy who pioneered
different uses of financial sanctions
because it takes policy entrepreneurship
to succeed in that kind of system right
there's not a pentagon for economic
Warfare and as a result I also I'm
concerned that we're falling behind
other countries you know China does have
a much more streamlined process for
doing these things um even Japan just
recently created a cabinet minister for
Economic Security right they so like we
have the Secretary of Defense they have
a minister for Economic Security right I
think Doge would be wise to think about
not necessarily cutting money into
economic Warfare if anything we need
more money for these things but
rightsizing how the US government does
it right like going back to drawing
board and say if we really want to fight
and win the economic Wars of Tomorrow
against China against Russia how do we
need to structure our government so that
we're not playing games at telephone and
arguing with each other all day and what
we're actually positioned to win and I
think that would be a a very beneficial
thing and I would love to see uh Doge
and Alon musk uh put their time and
attention into that problem economic
Warfare man is crazy where can people
follow along with you uh well first of
all I would um highly recommend that you
read my new book uh choke points I can
vouch for it fantastic appreciate it and
I the wal your Journal just called it
one of the 10 best reviewed books of
February which let's go was an honor an
honor um and if you do read it um please
reach out to me um I'm available on x um
at uh Edward Fishman um so you can uh
you know send me a note there and I'm I
love hearing feedback I've already the
book came out uh on Tuesday February
25th and I've already had you know over
a hundred messages from early readers um
asking me questions making comments I
love that you know the the thing as an
author you sit in your office for
several years writing and the thing
that's most satisfying is when a reader
picks up your book reads it and it
Sparks a new idea and sometimes it
changes my own thinking so please reach
out to me I'd love to talk to you about
it love it awesome well guys if you
haven't already be sure to subscribe and
until next time my friends be legendary
take care peace if you like this
conversation check out this episode to
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