Kind: captions
Language: en
tomorrow the president is going to get a
briefing from the CIA on his desk what
should be in that
briefing that's a great question uh it's
it's going to be uh a different briefing
than it was yesterday which is it goes
without saying but at the same time what
we're finding in the intelligence
Community both publicly and non-publicly
is that assessments have not been
accurate for about two and a half years
now intelligence assessments have not
been accurate if you recall America Mis
assessed what was going to happen in
Afghanistan with the withdrawal America
did not correctly assess how fast Russia
and Ukraine was going to resolve America
did not anticipate what was going to
happen between Israel and Hamas let
alone Israel's incursions then into
Lebanon and now into the Golan Heights
and for sure the United States was
unprepared for what happened in Syria
over the last two to three weeks so the
big question is why are the assessments
wrong and how do you fix that moving
forward now one thing that's not being
talked about in the press that should be
talked about in the Press is that ever
since 9911
we've known as a federal government that
one of the most vulnerable points for
American National Security is the
transition period between the end of one
election and the emergence of a new
president the first 100 days of a new
president so 911 happened during that
window what we're seeing right now is
that window has presented itself again
and inside of that window what have you
seen you've seen the oresnik come out of
Russia you've seen Ukraine start firing
American weapons you've seen Biden
approve more money than uh than he
believes Trump will approve you've seen
Syria completely change uh hand handoff
and take over you've seen Israel make
incredible progress in the Golan Heights
we're seeing people exploiting what is
now known as a vulnerable period for
America what else are we yet to see
because January 6th is when the new
president is ratified but there's still
generally another 100 days after that
before they start taking active charge
so whatever the current CIA is seeing
director Burns is
seeing has got to be speaking about
assessments that he doesn't trust and
the incoming CIA director ratliffe most
likely has also has to be preparing for
the fact that he doesn't know if he can
trust the assessments he's getting
that's interesting so in in that
situation what what can Ratcliffe do to
figure out uh not even figure out what
can Ratcliffe do to to be able to trust
the agents in the field it's not a
problem with the agents in the field and
this is a great thing that we're seeing
with cash Patel the uh nominee for the
FBI director one of the things
non-publicly again that's happening but
people don't see it happening is that
Donald Trump is bringing in people that
are publicly known but not necessarily
qualified for the positions that he's
nominating them for and that's got the
world in an uproar and the media is
talking about that what the media is not
talking about is the incredible amount
of effort that's happening on the back
end where Trump is trying to build
advisory panels that are very
knowledgeable about the topics so he
essentially wants his cronies to come in
and support him in their positions but
he's backfilling them with advisers that
know what the hell they're talking about
this isn't a new model this is something
that's been happening ever since the the
second George Bush that we know of where
they bring in cronies but then they
support the cronies with advisers it's
just happening in a different way with
Donald Trump so cash batala's cominging
and he's made it very clear he doesn't
trust the senior echelons of FBI and his
efforts to try to Route out troubled or
or troubl uh factors at FBI is really
going to be looking at the leadership of
FBI not looking at the rank and file
ratliff's doing the same thing he knows
that the working level field operator
field analyst field tech Ops person
hasn't been politicized yet they're
they're still ideologically predisposed
to serving Amer interests it's not until
3 four five tours in 12 15 years of
service that you start thinking well how
do I maximize my retirement how do I get
to the top of the food chain before I
punch out how do I because that's when
you start having kids that are in high
school age getting onto college that's
when you start having your first or
second divorce that you're trying to
fund it becomes difficult the first or
second divorce you're trying to fund I
mean that's a realistic way to look at
it it's hard it's hard when you are a
field operator you do three phenomenal
tours you don't have any problem making
$80,000 a year to live in Washington DC
or or capitals around the world and then
you come back to a spouse that's
disappointed because for the last 10
years you've picked a different spouse
over that person you've picked a career
over your partner and then there's a
divorce and then you lose half your net
worth and then you're 40 years old
making $90,000 a year but everything's
cut in half and your spouse takes it and
everybody you love and one you believe
in is gone and you're left with a career
so you rebuild again and you double down
in that career those are the people that
become the problem because those are the
people who rise up in power through a a
process that we call writing coattails
some people call it having a rabbi some
people call it having a Godfather you're
not the most qualified you're just loyal
to the person above you who's loyal to
the person above them who's loyal to the
person above them all of a sudden the
people in their last 10 years of service
are much less loyal to the American
people than the people in the first 10
years of their career Ratcliffe I think
knows that cash Patel knows that so as
they come in from the outside they can
kick the Hornet's Nest with very little
cause for repercussion H so what becomes
the play how do they do this well how do
we solve the deep deep State problem so
first I I don't like to call it the Deep
State problem I think it's more of a uh
inefficiency government incompetence
problem because it's not about
meritorious service it's not about
having skills in your job that take you
up to the top it's about who you're
loyal to that takes you up to the top
that becomes the exact same problem that
we see people criticizing in Russia in
Israel in Iran where leadership doesn't
want to brief up the truth they don't
want to tell their senior leaders bad
news because they're afraid they're
afraid that if I brief up bad news I'll
be held accountable or if I breath up
bad news I'll be punished or whatever
else I won't be in the rabbis good
graces anymore so I'll get kicked out
well what do you think led to all the
bad Assessments in the intelligence
arena for the United States over the
last two years so you're saying the
people on the front line they get what's
going on they report what's going on but
then people are afraid of the messenger
being killed and so they lie sort of
here's let me I'm gonna get too much in
the weeds so that you can pull me out to
where it's helpful yeah a field operator
will write on average between two and
four reports a day right so a field core
collector they're called for CIA will
write between two and four reports a day
those two and four reports that are
written are written to be delivered to
Langley Virginia headquarters for CIA
but they won't get to Langley for
between 48 and 21 or two days and three
days because for the next two to three
days they'll sit in the queue in their
field office and be edited by middle
management edited to say what middle
management wants to make sure langly
hears but is different than what
actually happened right is it uh is it
as innocent as spin or is it really I
got to find a way to say this that's not
going to raise the blood pressure of my
godfather uh it's three things really
their spin to make sure that they can
secure more funds for operations in the
future so if I'm having a mediocre
operation it might get spun to sound
more optimistic so that we can secure
funding next quarter to for the
continuation of this operation so there
is spin then there's also we don't want
to raise eyebrows we don't want to raise
blood pressure so we'll dampen down a
little bit of the more concerning parts
and we'll amp up a little bit of the
more comforting parts so now we might
tamper down the fact that the case
officer didn't do a complete SDR or the
case officer uh you know didn't fulfill
a report about something else whatever
will damp down the bad news pump up the
good news so that it just kind of skates
through Langley and then the third piece
is that what we want to do is we also
want to make sure that we don't uh we
don't give anybody the impression that
we're doing something wrong because the
last thing that Senior Management wants
in the field is somebody at Langley to
come back and say what are you thinking
letting this person do this or do that
so receipts expenses how many operations
they're doing in a week how many
operations they're doing in a day all of
that will get kind of massaged so
there's a lot of massaging that happens
before it even leaves the field office
to get to Langley and then when it gets
to Langley it hits what's known as an
operating desk operations desks are
managed by the lowest level youngest
officers and then those operating
officers at the desk will be the ones
that read 15 reports but then only
highlight the most important three or
four for their supervisor Who highlights
the most important one or two for his
supervisor or her supervisor Who
highlights the most important one or two
that goes to the an the analysis Wing
that makes the president's Daily Brief
that isn't
absolutely brilliant breakdown of the
problem because it's so mundane it's so
human this is exactly what I know people
to be like uh do you view this as an
intractable problem that we will never
be able to solve this is where I have my
reservations I'm optimistic but reserved
in my optimism for what Donald Trump is
trying to do with the new uh
organization that he created doge is
that what the new organization is yeah
yeah yeah Department of governmental
efficiency yes because the government is
inherently
inefficient that's what it was built to
be it it wasn't accidentally made to be
inefficient it was built to be
inefficient so that it could withstand
the constant transition of change in we
have to Define and maybe I'm debating
you but uh there's two kinds of
inefficiency there's gridlock which I
think the government was literally
designed to do and if people understand
the difference between Congress and
Senate they will understand the Senate
is meant to cool down the emotions of
the Congress which has has everything to
do with how they're elected originally
the Senate wasn't even elected uh so you
have Congress very sensitive to their
constituents Senate not so much meant to
cool it down uh right versus left meant
to gridlock so that only the things that
both sides agree on get through but then
there's the inefficiencies that you just
described which is uh what I will call
it's humans acting in their individual
best interest so I understand that but
it equates to lunacy so it's all
short-term thinking never long longterm
thinking I agree with what you're saying
and I would still say that the
government was designed to be both kinds
of operationally inefficient correct was
it designed to have the short-term
thinking versus long-term thinking no no
it was designed to be slow to make
process slow to make progress so even
though you've got the built-in CH the
built-in um gridlock to use your term
you've got the gridlock element to make
sure that bipartisan or the best IDE
make it to the top survive the gridlock
there's that idea but then those things
have to be
implemented that's where the operational
inefficiency comes in so you also have
to cons consider the fact that the
government has to survive we've talked
about this you and I before the
government of the American people has to
survive even more so than the American
people themselves right if we were to
have something happen that wiped out
2third of the American population if the
US government existed then the idea of
America exists therefore we survive it's
no longer an existential threat to have
something that kills two-third of of the
population that's how the government was
built so the reason you have so many
government jobs the reason you have so
many government offices the reason you
have so many government middle managers
is essentially to build in an
inefficiency that makes it so that
progress happens slowly so that a
president can come in and have a great
idea that everybody agrees to the last
year of their term the world changes two
months later 6 months later a new
president takes over and then they come
up with a new great idea over that all
that volatility of two years the actual
operation of bringing the first good
idea to light never really takes off
that's how the government is built it's
built so that you can't be a a hot shot
second-year officer that immediately
becomes the director of CIA you have to
serve the 15 years before you get a CH a
chance on the seventh floor that's how
it's built completely the opposite of
the way that the corporate world is
built like it's completely the opposite
of the way that the American dream is
built how is it different than the
corporate world in the corporate world
if you're badass sales badass marketing
badass product you can shoot right to
the Top If you've got proven value over
everyone else you can go right to the
head of the line and then you can hold
the head of the line until until you
either melt down or a competitor creeps
up that's Superior to you you see it
especially in the Arts how many actors
musicians uh artists come in they're
unknown they create a work of Brilliance
of Genius of Genius the population Gets
behind them money gets behind them
investors get behind them they shoot to
the top of their game they burn out on
drugs they burn out on something else
they fall they crash to the bottom maybe
they reinvent themselves they scream
back up to the top like we've seen this
dozens of times you see movies made
about artists who have had that exact
kind of Skyrocket and crash right the
government can't afford that that is
dangerous to government operations so
they Tamp all that down by forcing an
inefficiency by forcing a minimum number
of years of service before you're
eligible for promotion nobody can
promote higher than one level above
where they currently are so you can't
was that defined by the founding fathers
though or is this something that's
Arisen over time that's something that's
Arisen over time yeah see I think we
have to tease out the government was
designed to do this when I hear that I
hear founding fathers and the government
was the government with a blind watch
maker has ended up like this and so call
it evolutionary design uh because I
think that the gridlock intentional
founding fathers wanted that they knew
human nature well enough it sounds to me
like what you don't like calling the
Deep state which I like calling the Deep
state only because if you if you accept
this as this is just how humans are
they're going to um they're going to go
through that divorce they're going to
need to fund it so they're suddenly
going to be looking for their Godfather
who wants a loyalist below them who thly
is loyal to the person above them like I
get how that all plays out but if you
don't attack that then I think you have
a problem now here's the only difference
that I see between the government and
Corporate America Corporate America
can't hide because you will go out of
business the government can steal the
money of its constituents really truly
the more I look at this the more I
realize uh that's exactly what's
happening and because the government can
steal money and they don't have to get
you to vote for everything they can just
keep doing this forever and ever and
ever operating at uh these huge losses
from a deficit perspective and there's
all kinds of mechanisms by which uh they
will sooner take us to war instead of
confronting the fact that they just need
to stop spending the money okay so
Corporate America cold hard reality of
being out in the marketplace if you
don't have enough money to make payroll
you go out of business business this is
why the banking industry deranges
because the government basically does
the same thing with the banking industry
and so it's no longer true capitalism uh
because the government isn't true
capitalism this thing that I call the
Deep state to wake people up so they
understand it is Sinister in as much as
yes it's just an echo of human foibles
and weakness I get that I understand how
each individual actor thinking
short-term makes the decisions that they
make but if we were able to point at and
say this is is the kpi that this
government and this is really what doge
is about this is a kpi that this
department is held accountable to and if
you don't hit that then we're going to
start firing people and it's that simple
and I think that once you understand it
was not designed that way with intention
by well-meaning people anyway it was
designed by selfish short-term people
over evolutionary time frames within you
know governmental structures I mean
obviously the last couple hundred years
but we should not want that as far as I
can tell and we should want to bust that
up but it seems like you think there's a
good thing here no no no no so so we
want to smooth out the volatility yeah
yeah yeah it's just to be clear I don't
think there's a big gap between you and
I I in terms of our Ambitions for what
we want the future to look like I would
even go to say in terms of the
imperatives that you and I know the
future must look like I don't think
there's a big gap between us I think
where there is a gap between us is in
the the battlefield truth and the
as an example right the federal
government does not
use work
instructions what does that mean a
corporation uses work instructions
meaning you can hire a new person bring
them into an office and you can
literally give them access to a folder
standards standard operating procedures
standard operating procedures in my
understand in my experience in Corporate
America and in our business at everyday
spy we create Sops which are standard
operating procedures here's the standard
operation of how you bring a product to
Market here's a standard operating
procedure of how you run a marketing
campaign and then inside that sop we
have links to work instructions which
tell you step-by-step checklists how you
do each thing that must be done inside
the
SOP the government does not use work
instructions and by and large the
government does not use
Sops most of the government is written
on the back of what's known as
institutional knowledge and on the
training OJT so a new person comes in
they go through training they go through
onboarding and orientation and then they
go to their office where they're taught
through some senior person or mid midl
mid-rank person how to actually do the
job it's not documented there's there's
rarely a checklist there's rarely a work
instruction there's rarely an sop the
military does the best job of having
actual checklists and those checklists
are you just follow them blindly so they
don't live like a work instruction they
don't get updated with new technology
updates they don't get updated with new
uh systematic software updates they just
they exist until they're Rewritten and
then they exist again that type of
continuity is a very difficult thing for
the government they don't have a best
practice around that because to your
exact point short-term interests people
want to make sure they always have a job
if they make a work instruction an sop
that could lead to an automation that
could cost them their job and inside the
federal government all you have to do we
there's a State there's a saying you
just wait out your leadership change
because every year somebody has to get
promoted every two years somebody new
gets appointed every four years somebody
new gets elected so if you're a
government employee you just can sit
there and wait because the change
happens faster than your own reported
progress in your job so the reason that
you have this backlog of inefficiency
isn't because the the founding fathers
wanted it I don't know that the founding
fathers could could
visualize the technology and the
progress that we've made this
quickly I think that what's happened
instead is human beings have taken
office they've done what they needed to
do to
survive the government evolves slower
than the corporation the corporate
sector technolog is different upgrades
are different software is different
government still uses Windows technology
that's 20 years old because it hasn't
been certified yet as safe for
government systems you see what I'm
saying it's Terri man but it's the
reality of it I'm excited for Doge I'm
excited for an office of government
efficiency but I have seen what's
happened with the office of government
accountability and I've seen what
challenges it's had because the people
who make the laws that dictate the
hiring practices for government the
people that make the laws that dictate
the promotion and uh remuneration
requirements for the government those
laws all have to be changed in order for
something like Doge to actually make
sign
laws have to be changed so the how
you're hired how you're fired there are
laws around how you're hired and fired
that's a fair point I don't know that
there's legislative laws at a federal
level I would want to double check that
but the government policies in order for
something to beate policy in a federal
government it goes through multiple
layers of bureaucracy to be approved as
a policy not like a corporate policy
where somebody just pencil something in
and then that's corporate policy Jesus
Christ we'll get back to the episode
with Andrew bu Deonte in a minute but
first we need to talk about protecting
your wealth whether you're holding
dollars in the bank crypto in a digital
wallet or stocks in your portfolio
you're putting your trust in a system
you can't control that's why I'm excited
to tell you about something that
completely changes the game goldbacks
have done what was previously thought
impossible they've made real gold
practical for everyday use each gold
back contains a precise amount of pure
gold protected by Advanced
anti-counterfeiting features like UV
reactive ink and unique serial numbers
goldbacks are strengthening local
economies when you pay with goldbacks
you're keeping wealth within your
community no transaction fees no digital
footprint just direct exchanges between
people and businesses since 2019 gold
backs have put over $100 million worth
of gold currency into circulation if you
want to be a part of this monetary
Revolution go to Alpine gold.com and use
code impact to get gold backs today
again that's Alpine gold.com code impact
we need to talk about your online
security your password the one you use
for your banking your email and your
social media might be up for sale on the
dark web right now for less than a buck
cyber security is a huge concern for me
especially as a game developer I'm all
too aware of how many points of
vulnerability we have and here is why
one breach is all it takes for hackers
to access everything you own that's why
I'm excited to partner with Robo form
password manager Robo form creates and
manages strong unique passwords for
every site you use one click and you're
securely logged in no memorizing no
compromises consider Robo form your
complete digital security system it
autofills forms securely shares access
and monitors your accounts for weak and
breached passwords the next Cyber attack
is coming protect yourself click the
link in the show notes and get 60% % off
your first year with Robo form stop
making it easy for hackers get Robo form
now now let's get back to the show uh
one I want to acknowledge how
brilliantly you're able to explain that
uh two I want to acknowledge that you're
yanking a dark cloud over my heart so
for real so uh as a business owner the
first thing that you learn is you cannot
[ __ ] around you cannot drag employees
that are underperforming because the
reality is that the organ M as a whole
will die yes and you were talking about
we could um two-third of the population
could be annihilated but as long as we
have the government the idea of America
still exists but here's the problem when
you calcify the government in the way
that you're talking about by allowing
all of this short-term thinking uh all
of this just wait out your boss that's
insane this this is how Empires fall I
want everybody to understand if you can
hear my voice please understand the
following every Empire in history has so
abuse the monetary system that they go
away now how do you end up abusing the
monetary system you get something like
this where people are not being held
accountable to the results that they're
supposed to deliver and if you allow an
organization to be created where people
are just waiting out their bosses now it
it really does become a figurehead comes
in they focus entirely on International
uh Endeavors because they can actually
influence International policy but they
can't really do anything at home and so
you get this uh what's happening to
America right now as much as as far as I
can tell is uh we become effectively the
hedgemon in waiting at the end of World
War I some would say we are the hedgemon
at that point uh certainly by the end of
World War Two we are everything and
we've just been trading on that Goodwill
until now and now it's breaking down
because of largely not only but largely
because of this layer of con
in the gears of what could otherwise be
a high functioning government okay so
let me but let me I also I'm glad that
we're part of the Dark Cloud Club yeah
because I also have a dark cloud over my
heart pretty much all the
time I'm sorry to to to don't apologize
I always want to know what's true all I
hear about what's true but here's here's
what's here's what's important to
understand it doesn't have to be that
way to your point because there is a
tool that the president has called like
the presidential authority to make
executive orders
an executive order trumps all other
previous laws at its Penning and since
the days of Obama we've seen nothing but
an increase in the president's
willingness to write more executive
orders than ever before so Donald Trump
has the president already to come in and
make more executive orders than Biden
made which were more than the previous
Trump made which were more than the
previous Obama made right so we have
this this um precedent now for Donald
Trump to come in and just sign executive
orders and with the with the flick of a
pen he can change all the policies he
can change all the status quo he can
absolutely upend everything I think he
will when he does give the executive
orders for a massive cleaning of the
federal government we have to also
expect that it will be executed meaning
we will see a huge Purge of federal
employees there's no work instructions
in Sops to back up new federal employees
so when we see that big Purge we should
expect problems we should expect
upheaval and chaos and people aren't
going to know what they're doing on an
international stage or on a domestic
stage at least in a government stage so
we should expect things to get worse
before they get better what happens when
a company realizes it has problems it
can lay people off it can fire people it
can change policies it gets worse before
it gets better the major problem here is
that a company a for-profit comp or the
major difference here is that for-profit
companies need a profit to survive or
else the company dies federal government
does not need a profit it's got a tax
base it's got guaranteed Revenue all it
needs is employed people to pay taxes so
that it can make Revenue that's why the
government's always so focused on
employment rates if you have more
unemployment you have less tax revenue
if you have people who are employed in
jobs that are low paying you have less
tax revenue unless we start increasing
our tax rates which is how Europe
survives with very high tax rates so
that's the game that the government's
trying to play fewer employees will
reduce the amount of overhead cost
but then if they don't have people who
can do the job they'll have to turn to
contractors those contractors come at a
premium price and now you basically have
the entire administrative government
operating the same way that the
intelligence Services operate which is
they don't have enough staff employees
they augment with contract employees and
that's how your khakis your booze Allens
your deits of the world became billion
dooll companies because they just
started producing government
contractors um it seems to me that we
need the system to be broken because
when you look at what we're
doing yes the government has a
guaranteed tax base however we are
racking up a trillion of debt every 100
days the only way out of that is to
spend less so slash the government
employees slash entitlements whatever
the case is going to be but look at the
10 biggest things we spend money on
you're going to be slashing those it's
not going to be at the margins
or you have to raise GDP and if we could
get people all of us anybody hey if
you're here listening right now uh think
of the GDP as the revenue generated by
the government it's not because the
government ultimately does not generate
Revenue but they can either impede or
unimpeded the GDP of everybody else
that's within its borders so the whole
thesis that Trump is operating under is
that I'm going to be able to unlock
growth GDP is going to go up so I don't
have to tax people more and commit
suicide like Europe is doing hi Europe I
hope you're okay uh I don't know what
the [ __ ] they're doing but if you look
at the number of companies that are
worth more than a billion dollars that
were started in the last 50 years or
something like that the US has a ton and
Europe has like six it's crazy uh and
anybody that thinks corporations are
evil will just remind you the government
doesn't make money they take money from
the people that make money and it's the
corporations that make money so if you
want your people to be thriving you've
got to have GDP when the government
makes up all the GDP don't get me
started printing money debt blah blah
blah okay so there's a there is a third
tool please say more to get out of
debt you're either about to change my
life or we're we're about to be in fist
of cuffs what is it fist of cuffs might
be the way it goes you can just
default so think about what happens if
the
when you look at the national debt that
the United States
carries 12 to 15% of that debt is owed
to one country
China and then you have a half a billion
more that's owed to Russia and then you
have obus skated numbers that go to the
ultra wealthy that are Chinese are
Russian are Iranian are Turkish or
Saudi you could arguably
simply not pay those debts right It Off
The Top Line right right off the amount
Ed and simultaneously strike an economic
blow to your largest
adversaries I'm not altogether
unconvinced that that is exactly the
strategy that we plan that when we
decide to go to war with East versus
West when we decide to get involved
we're going to do to China what we did
to Russia and we provve that we're
willing to do when we sanctioned the
actual cash reserves of Russia that was
being held in US denominated Dollars and
European euros we just took their
money extra judicial not at all allowed
something that we had NATO sign off on
because we control NATO it was totally
illegal in every definition of the word
there's no reason we can't just do that
with our national debt and that's going
to reduce us like 25% overnight and
defund our enemies from being able to
work against us will it destroy the
dollar arguably if you're doing it only
to your
adversaries Maybe not maybe that makes
your allies even more Allied because now
you have a massive head start against
your enemies but that is a third way
that companies get out of
debt F cuffs or no I uh I was like
there's no thing he's going to be able
to pull out you you are correct in terms
of being able to change the ratio of
debt to
GDP uh that is the nuclear option
because that uh there's no guarantees in
life I want to be very clear I cannot
see the future and it's possible that
that works out just fine it's also
possible that 10 years later we are
dropping bombs on each other at a scale
never before seen in human history
people do not like it when you [ __ ] with
their money I agree and wowza uh fully
concede the point that that is certainly
a thing that we can do uh hey if we want
to get crazy we could also devalue the
dollar against gold and uh uh that won't
make the world happy either but that
would also have a very big impact on the
debt uh okay the reason that is so dark
and I can hear wolves howling in the
background is really twofold one because
it's all too possible that that's on the
menu of options uh and two because that
that is where Ray doio has been saying
this is all going to go that we end up
in a hot War and the reason we end up in
a hot war is when we lock up China's
money and they're in the middle of a um
crisis because they are in the middle of
a crisis right now nothing that the US
hasn't seen and I'm sure they'll be able
to inflate their way out of it and all
that good stuff but if the US freezes
some ungodly amount of my money and I'm
China I go oh really you want to play
cool taiwan's mine and now I'm going to
see how badly you want these chips and
your modern way of life uh because you
either give me my money back or I'm
going in and I'm taking over and I'm
cutting off your supply they are not
going to roll over they are not just
going to take it and this is truly last
time we talked you said that World War
III has already started uh that's how
World War III goes from a what do you
mean we're in World War I to uh downtown
LA just got vaporized yeah so I think at
the end of the day the truth holds today
as it's hold as it's held for our
multiple conversations the future is not
happy we are years away from happy
future we are potentially months away
from positive indicators that happiness
is coming but we're not anywhere close
to happy yet and we won't be close to
happy for a long time China won't roll
over great point right also when it
comes to actual measurable objective
facts about China right now they have
the largest military industrial complex
in the world when it comes to uh counts
counts of troops numbers of active
warships numbers of aircraft ammunitions
at the ready they surpass Us by ability
to make more by almost seven times yeah
they are us when Pearl Harbor happened
so they're not going to roll over
because they look at us and they see
that we have our senior advisers to the
military advising to stop giving weapons
to Ukraine and Israel because we are at
such a deficit we don't even know how we
would wage a sustained conflict if we
were the active participant so if China
were to invade Taiwan militarily which
there's no indications that that is
their intention necessarily but that is
one of their options if they invade
militarily the US is really only going
to be able to augment Taiwanese defense
capabilities we won't be able to wage a
war on our own just based on our
manufacturing capability and the amount
of ammunition weapons troops tanks ships
that we have already built Chinese ship
building is out producing us Chinese
military training is out producing us
China is outs spending us and what did
we learn from Russia in Ukraine the
whole world sanctioned Russia how did
they keep their economy alive wartime
economy why are well France and Germany
are [ __ ] right now on their own but
before they [ __ ] themselves with
meltdowns in their Parliament they were
the ones warning that if we don't find a
way to bring a ceasefire in Ukraine
Russia is going to continue to build its
economy on the back of a war that's
exactly how the United States has
survived some of our worst times we had
a wartime economy that's what made
Afghanistan Iraq worth it that's what
made World War II worth it that's what
made the Korean War worth it that's what
made Vietnam worth it because economies
go up domestic production goes up
employment goes up tax bases go up when
there's a
war China is
preparing mentally and fiscally for some
kind of conflict doesn't have to be with
us it can be with all of its neighbors
in the South China Sea for all it cares
but right now we literally can't wage
war what are we going to do in the
future they're not going to roll over
and to your exact point they know we're
not going to roll over so you've got
these two big [ __ ] dogs staring at
each other growling but not barking yet
and everybody else is walking around
being like oh they're fine because
there's a mesh fence between them I
don't know what the future holds but
it's not it's not going to be a hard
barbed wire fence that makes these two
dogs peaceful
uh By the time this airs it will have
already happened but what do you think
about Trump inviting xiin ping to his
inauguration I like the idea because
again you have to you have to
acknowledge a big
dog there's a I have a puppy now we have
a four-month-old poodle standard poodle
puppy it's got the same hair as me right
only white instead of black but one
thing that I've learned in the puppy
training classes is that there's nothing
more dangerous than a dog on a leash CU
when a dog's on a leash instinctively it
feels like it's confined trapped so then
when a dog on a leash meets another dog
on a leash they start pulling on the
leash coming at each other if they
didn't have the leashes their instincts
wouldn't force them into conflict they'd
be trying to smell each other's ass
right a completely different movement
but instead from the outside Observer
you watch these two dogs growling
salivating pulling at each other as if
they would kill each other it's the
leash that's the problem
not the dogs so essentially what we have
in the United States with China is you
have these two big dogs that want to
acknowledge each other they want to
sniff each other's ass I think Trump
knows that let let them Sniff and then
from there they can start making moves
that are not going to be misinterpreted
remember how we avoided the Cuban
Missile Fiasco right the crisis avoided
nuclear war because there was a bunch of
ass sniffing going on right people were
trying to they had Intel on us we had
Intel on them back and forth they're we
could avoid miscommunications to the
point where they even had a phone that
they could call each other to make sure
that there was no miscommunication the
world is full of miscommunication right
now things are unexpected things are are
are happening that analysts didn't
anticipate assessments are wrong about
what is happening nobody can guess what
the next step is who would have guessed
that Assad would have fallen in 14 days
backed by turkey and that now those
turkish-backed groups would be fighting
American backed Kurds inside
Syria who would have guessed that was
going to happen two and a half weeks ago
like there's only four people in the
entire United States that watch [ __ ]
Syria right so I think having so Trump's
plan to invite shei to in include him in
more and more things the United States
is wise but he also has to account for
the fact that anything he shows or tells
she is going to make its way to Putin
and make its way to Kim Jong-un and make
its way to all of the enemies of the
United States because that's how she
maintains his leverage over the growing
axis of resistance because they're a big
dog and they're invited to sniff the
other dog's ass okay so uh if we've got
Trump coming in and he's got a Cadre of
people that are for the reasons that you
laid out they're they're not going to
surface the truth um I'm going to pose a
way around that tell me if you think
this is crazy so the way that you laid
out the problem seems fundamentally true
because it is in keeping with what I
know about the human animal given the
state of AI what I would do is say I
want my analyst I want the human touch I
want to see what's going on there but I
also want the people the field agents to
be able to feed their briefs into an AI
That's going to summarize and hand it to
me I will verify the um the bias of the
AI by asking it to take both sides of
arguments that I know the answer to and
see if it's really giving me something
that's just on bias or uh if it's able
to take both sides so that now I can
compare and contrast this is what the AI
says is going based on field data being
reported to it and then this is what the
people are telling me and I would
compare and contrast that plus whether I
have to do it as an executive order
which I'm actually not a big fan of but
if I have to be able to do an executive
order to be able to hire and fire People
based on performance then executive
order I would highly recommend um those
two things I can hold government
employees accountable to results and I
have an AI to gut check what I'm getting
from the field do you see another way to
do that better uh I don't think I see a
way to do that better but there are some
elements there that I want to make sure
in in keeping true to our Dark Cloud
right uh performance metrics the day
that the day they're implemented would
be the first day that you'd be able to
actually measure performance for a
government employee they don't have
metrics right now now it's kind of
standard practice across the government
they don't have performance Elon David
Sachs Trump like they're going to be
able to come up with metrics I agree I
agree they can I'm just saying that when
they come up with them that would be day
one so from now until the day those are
rolled out and issued is all before day
one right and then to your point about
performance the performance process for
government employees even military
employees the performance process is
flawed everybody is overstated in their
performance report so basically your bad
employee is an employee who meets
expectations formally on paper and your
standout employees are the ones that
exceed expectations and have all sorts
of accolades and then the people who
you're trying to flag for promotion are
the people who exceed expectations have
all kinds of accolades and have certain
keywords inside their resume that also
highlight to the to the board that's
reviewing them for promotion this is
somebody that their boss really wants to
promote so it's already hyperinflated
you don't have any anybody that you can
easily cut because if you actually look
at everybody's performance review
they're all 10 out of 10 yeah that's not
how you cut though man so if you and
it'll be interesting because I know
you're growing like a weed at everyday
spy I'm going to look into your future
and I'm going to tell you it's going to
go like this uh there are going to be
people that in your heart of hearts you
realize you're caring because you like
them as people but they don't deliver
results and that you're making excuses
for them and if they blindly submitted a
project that you'd be like uh whoever
project this is kill it and then only to
find out that it's somebody that you
really like and so ultimately as you
scale you will hit a point where you
can't oversee everything and suddenly
you'll be pulled away from your wife and
kids because you uh have to go deal with
the fire and as you're looking at it
you're like I should never been pulled
into this you will say who's responsible
for this and a name will come up and you
be like ah cool uh that person is not
useful to this organization you will
very rapidly begin to recognize those
patterns um I I've just I've lived it
I'm I'm a few years in your future uh
you're not even that I mean I've I've
already started struggling with what
you're saying yeah you're totally make
apparent over time right now Trump has
around him the greatest living
entrepreneurs it it is insane what he's
been able to bring around him now I get
it there are complications to the
government that's going to make this
very difficult and it is not going to be
some like um polyana outcome however
Elon walked into Twitter and and was
just like prto principal 8020 I'm going
to get rid of 80% of the people and hope
that I got the 20% right obviously
you'll look at metrics but it won't be
the employee reviews it's going to be
things like it'll be different for every
Department I want to be very clear but
he went and was just like how many lines
of code did you submit okay so first
thing is there's a line in elon's mind
knowing from an engineering standpoint
how many lines roughly of code you
should be submitting I'm just going to
Lop off anybody that doesn't submit that
amount of code and will I have lost some
like really high level guys that just
don't do do a lot yeah I don't give a
[ __ ] like they're just you have to have
a line then I can bring people back if I
have to and I remember openly on X he
was like Hey Timmy or whatever we fired
you we actually want to bring you back
uh if you would reach out um so that's
his thing seeing what melee is doing in
Argentina yep same thing weed whack and
then if you overdo it you can bring some
people back in but he's managed to I
think build a surplus like it's actually
working um so I have a lot of high hopes
for that um again not existing in a poly
Ana land but if you were to make a
prognostication about where all of this
goes do you think it is just it's too
gridlocked they're never going to be
able to make progress these guys are
just going to heads down wait them out I
think so you I still owe you a second
answer and this answer right so I think
that the existing government
establishment is going to try first
heads down wait out our leadership let's
also be honest Donald Trump has a
history of loving people this year and
hating them next year loving them this
morning and hating them this afternoon
yes so that's my big fear but that that
feeds into the existing government
culture of we just wait out the boss
this guy's going to self-destruct just
wait out the boss and even if they don't
have to wait out Donald Trump they can
wait out Elon Musk they can wait out
whoever musk hired they can wait out
whoever's implementing the the policy of
the person that Elon hired like they can
wait and wait and wait and wait and
that's all they know right even your
high performing government person even
the person who's listening now who knows
that they work their ass off in the
federal government they've never been
rewarded for it because that's the way
it works even that person knows on some
level I could just color and weight like
I can just do that it's so dark it's but
it's what it's it's survival
mechanism so that will be the first
instinct I think that instinct can be
buffered out right exact point do I see
a future with AI absolutely I see a
future with AI there are risks inherent
with that future AI is still code C can
be hacked in by an adversary AI is still
based on the inputs and who knows what
the inputs are going to be there's all
sorts of challenges there but you can't
turn away from the future just because
there's challenges of course there's
challenges you have to go in knowing
those challenges I love that you brought
out Argentina it's a it's a perfect
timely relevant
example this chaotic leader came in with
plans to completely upend everything
that was established and for a year he
struggled to keep people believing and
then after a year that's still not good
but it's better by a lot by a lot and a
lot better than what it was isn't saying
much to most democracies but it's a [ __ ]
ton better simultaneous and in parallel
to that you had France dissolve
parliament and then revote to bring in
new leaders ship and then you had the
resignation of the Prime Minister that
resulted in a no confidence vote of the
parliament so France is back to no
leadership again Germany just had a no
confidence vote in its Parliament and
its current uh whatever the is it a
prime minister in Germany whatever the
hell Chancellor Olaf the chancellor
thank you like two days ago he was voted
in no confidence vote in Parliament so
they're melted down the top two largest
economies in Europe the two Bast of
democracy in Europe the two largest
Partners to the United States and NATO
arguably with UK they don't have a
government right now they're melted down
they have to go back to the drawing
board and reelect because the people
couldn't pick their right leadership
more than one time in a row so you got
Malay saying burn it all down build it
back up you've got the old world trying
to keep the old way and burning down on
their own and now we've got this
question of Donald Trump and people
wondering is he just going to destroy
America I think he's got a plan to burn
it down build it back up because he's
done that and like you said he's he's
creating this Ensemble of entrepreneurs
who have all in their careers had to
burn it down and build it back up the
building it back up is not a guarantee
takes a whole lot more work than burning
it down but sometimes you got to K you
got to burn the cornfield to reset the
soil to grow something better do you
think he's going to destabilize America
destabilize is a tough word right I
would argue that I would argue that he's
he
has stabilized the United States on
fewer feet if you consider a table has
four legs does it need four legs there
are plenty of tables that have three
legs and there are other tables that
have si