Kind: captions
Language: en
fires continue to rage across California
fueling heated debates on who's spinning
misinformation and whether we need more
or fewer regulations to rebuild La
Chamas letting no one in La off the hook
for the high winds excuse Zuck inspired
an inspired rant from Adam Corolla who
told the government to make love to
janitorial supplies on repeat Prof G
explains how good deeds can go seriously
arai the kids were told to ditch Tik Tok
so they found the most Chinese app ever
Plus are we buying Greenland is musk
faking his gaming and who gets credit if
Hamas releases the hostages Trump or
Biden Drew let's get into it how you
doing I'm good man I'm hungry as you
well know we're shooting this in the
morning and so I do these fasted when
it's the morning time and boy oh boy did
I not account for the prep time so I was
ready to go if we had started shoot
right at the beginning of prep but alas
so that's all right it's good it
actually I think does help with mental
Clarity yeah I love it I love it well
let's get right into you so you get some
something in your stomach um update on
the California wildfires uh they've been
raging for days now at this point the
containment levels have increased thank
God Palisades is up to 17% eaten fire
which is Altadena Pasadena that's at 35%
we're recording this on Tuesday the 14th
Tuesday the 14th um and just so I didn't
know this either until one of our
editors told this the containment
doesn't actually mean how much of the
fire is put out but how much of the fire
is preventable from spreading so when I
say 35% that means 35% of the barrier
they have prevented of the perimeter of
the fire got it is no longer expanding
it's not expanding it's not getting
bigger so they're kind of going on the
outside making sure nothing spreads and
then they're going to kind of doubt it
in the middle so makes sense um and then
thoughts and prayers to the 24 people
who have lost their lives we're hoping
to Jesus that number doesn't get any
higher and that way we can hopefully
wrap this up really gut-wrenching yeah
it's s woof okay I know you have family
and stuff impacted by this um how I
don't have
family lost everything wow plus a lot of
people still evacuated it's it's crazy
like I've been here a long time and this
is by far the worst but it's bringing
out a very fascinating debate in terms
of how we're going to handle this what
does it look like going forward uh so
obviously we have to first get on the
other side of the fire there's a ton of
debate around misinformation
disinformation all of that um and we're
going to get to the Adam CR thing in a
little while but when I first heard his
quote I thought he was talking about um
the Newsome is on like this PR campaign
about how Trump is spreading
misinformation disinformation and all
this which to me is is not the area of
Focus right now right now all he should
be thinking about is how did we get up
in this place and how do we make sure
that we one get out of this as quickly
as possible and then two never find
ourselves here and somebody hit me in
the comments on our previous video and
was like basically well what are your
Solutions Tom and it was ridiculously
easy to give like a whole list of things
that could be explored at a minimum
almost certainly should be done not the
least of which is the fact that we have
the reservoir sitting empty and so I
think chamath really did a phenomenal
job of explaining this in a recent clip
uh if we can play that clip I think this
is bang on I'm not very sympathetic to
the there were 100 m an hour winds not
because it's not true but there's been
enough modeling that we know that these
kinds of outlier weather events are
happening in greater and greater
frequency remember that crazy
apocalyptic video of that exact same
part of Southern California in
2018 burning to the ground AB 2330 ab1
1951 AB
2639 all rejected by the Democrat
controlled legislator or worse vetoed by
Governor Newsome all right so I think
that is the right way to think through
this it is so tempting for everybody to
point the finger at somebody else and to
say uh this is an act of God natural
disaster was getting said on repeat in a
way that I felt like people were trying
to terraform my mind for me to accept
that this was something that we couldn't
control that we couldn't influence
climate change 100% And the reality is
I'm not even the most Insidious thing
about excuses is that they are valid yes
there were 100 mile an hour winds yes
the climate does seem to be changing but
the reality is that there are things
that we could have and should have done
these were things as Chamas said in the
realm of the knowable we have the data
we have seen this stuff happen in recent
memory people have been talking and
debating about exactly what we should be
doing and they didn't do that and so
this is where just just as a rule in
one's own life you want to always Point
all 10 fingers of responsibility back at
yourself and say what could I have done
differently to get a different result we
have got to be holding our politicians
accountable to that same thing because
the second were like oh my God Act of
God yes what could they have possibly
done you're just going to live in this
death Loop where these kind of things
keep happening and it is it is really
fascinating to me that Rick Caruso the
guy that ran for mayor up against Karen
bass his properties are still standing
and why are they're still standing
because he said okay this is a knowable
thing there was a way to prevent against
this the Japanese also have an
incredible water strategy for dealing
with these kind of wildfires and so
seeing that his buildings are still
standing go go in the Palisades goes to
show that there are ways to combat this
stuff and and he has but one of what I'm
sure many many many many things that we
could be doing once you get the
government involved in this and so look
I I'm not asking people to be on my
bandwagon of get rid of these people but
even if I can't get you on board with
that just get on board with we could do
a different thing and get a different
result because
2026 is going to come and we're going to
be in the same situation and we are
going to relive this nightmare over and
over and over until people realize that
actions have consequences it really is
that simple you do a thing you get a
result if you don't like the result that
you got you need to do a different thing
dude e everything in everyone's life
lives in that cycle of cause and
consequence and if we could get people
to embrace cool you're you're probably
not going to be able to mitigate 100 mph
winds those are going to happen from
time to time but okay your reservoirs a
if you find a problem it can't take a
year to fix that's absolutely
insane B uh build more reservoirs get
more of these tankers that can drop
stuff build in sprinkler systems uh get
hoses that can run because the these
dude La burned along the water so there
were people whose backyard is water and
their houses burned down where they
literally have pons in the water holding
their house up and their house burned
that's insane so getting hoses that you
can run into the salt water there are
enough videos out there about salt water
is not corrosive in the way that people
are saying it takes time it's not going
to drop the the water suppression or
sorry the fire suppression mechanisms
out of a fire truck to run saltwater
through it uh for a couple of days you
just have to cycle the systems and keep
them clean so just on and on and on and
on and those are already the things that
we can do right now today let alone
getting to Innovation now Innovation
brings me to my favorite hobby horse
which chamat touched on in that clip
which is regulation so you're getting
all of these bills going into the
government that are getting shot in the
face not some in some cases not making
it to the governor's desk in other cases
being vetoed by him this is absolute
insanity and so here is the thing that I
really want people to do and the the
thing that I hold myself accountable to
okay nobody should just listen to me
because I say it people should treat me
like I'm an AI that will give them an
angle on this but I can articulate to
you the beliefs in the value system that
drive my thinking I can literally say
them this is what I'm making this
decision based on people can ask me
anytime they want and I will pull it out
and if I find oo whoa weird I actually
don't know why I believe this I can say
that and then you go I'm not going to
listen to him on this doesn't make any
sense he doesn't even know why he's
saying it it's probably being driven by
emotion our elected officials better be
able to tell you why they're making
these decisions and not in the like
shimmy way of Nome doing his weird
Shimmy Shake uh they're not just saying
in a really clear simple way this is why
I'm vetoing this bill there's always
spin double
speak and that's really what stood out
to me in that clip there's four bills if
this was a it happened in 2018 one bill
came up okay guys let's not overreact I
get that but you had time you had
multiple iterations of it there was
different formats of the bill we can be
the power lines we can exempt I know we
want to save all this conservation let's
just exempt wildlife and and fire they
can clean up the dead trees man like
there was so many opportunities but that
that does bring up my next question what
is that line of Regulation is do we need
Devastation to show that regulation is
stupid like there should be a better way
of saying let's regulate this but let's
not regulate this and how should the our
elected officials approach that
situation all right there is a
phenomenal quote that and I forget who
it's by forgive that that's going to be
a running theme in the show I'll
remember the quote but I don't remember
who said it uh people will look it up
dropping in the comments um the only law
of history is the law of unintended
consequences the whole idea the whole
reason I rage against like manipulating
markets the reason that I rage against a
lot of Regulation is there will be
unintended consequences and you may have
really truly your heart really truly may
be filled with love you may really truly
be one of the good guys be trying to do
something positive for the world like
I'm willing to Grant that but there are
going to be unintended consequences That
You Don't See coming and that's why for
the most part it's better to have a
light touch small government less
regulation and when you put a regulation
in place because again I'm I am I am
very glad that we have government I am
very glad that the government does its
best to protect its people I think
there's a lot of meaningful work to be
done by the government I'm not a no
government guy at all
however when you put a regulation in
place it should either have a Finish
Line or it should be my favorite tied to
a kpi and if it doesn't move that kpi in
the right direction lift the regulation
so that way we don't get this like ever
uh additional layer of barnacles added
to the turtle such that finally the
turtle ends up drowning because it can't
move because it has so many Barnacles on
it that's how I view regulations any one
not a big deal but oh my God you get
layers and layers decade after decade
where you're adding but you're never
taking anything away ends up being
Madness uh so choth touched on it a
little bit there Prof G actually talking
about something totally unrelated he was
talking about I think um what's going on
in Santa Monica with rent control so you
want to talk about something where
they're trying to do something good and
Prof G is about as Progressive as a sane
person can get uh play that clip for me
real fast what could we do to bring down
housing prices and I think legally if
you have 50% if two companies own 50% of
the rental units in say Southern Florida
or let's pick another Market in Buckhead
Atlanta and you know Cox is calling COI
and saying wink wink we're going to
raise prices 8% this year or rents
that's illegal that's price fixing but I
get nervous around the unintended
consequences of sequestering capital for
from a market and it it ends up
backfiring for example rent control in
Santa Monica meant to help renters right
you can't raise rents and the problem is
no one's building in Santa Monica
because there's no economic incentives
so as a result what's happened is
anytime something comes up for rent
usually when someone dies it gets a 100
applications and they end up picking
that nice white family that makes
$400,000 a year uh for the $800 a month
rent controlled apartment and it's ended
up essentially creating uh housing
discrimination again the law of
unintended consequences and when I look
at all the fire Insurance being pulled
out of California they're going to try
and regulated again but it's regulations
that got us into this problem because
they were saying hey we don't want you
to gouge people that are trying to get
insurance so we're going to put caps on
the amount that you can raise the prices
and the problem is the insurance
companies went hold on a second I can't
do this based on historicals I have to
do this based on a forward-looking
forecast that's what Actuarial tables
are is not just what happened in the
past but what do we expect to happen in
the future and we have to make this bet
such that I think uh insurance companies
are only allowed like a 5% profit margin
dude that is Razor thin margins razor
thin and if you then also cap the amount
that they can increase it don't let them
look forward to what they think is going
to happen with climate change uh with
some of the regulations that we see
happening in California that have this
knock on effect with the ability to
fight fires and they're like yo we've
got to get out so they start pulling out
and you think oh wait a second that was
not the effect that we wanted to have we
were trying to protect the consumer but
in the end you end up [ __ ] the
consumer Ultra hard because now they
can't get insurance so I get it you are
well-intentioned but the consequences
don't end up being positive and this is
where dude my core thesis in life people
have got to stop thinking they're that
smart they've got to stop thinking that
they can be trusted and look I get it
every video I do has people reminding me
that I'm dumb and my core thesis is I
get that I'm dumb I get that there are
things that I'm blind to I understand
that I want to be a voice that gives you
a sincere angle upon which you use to
triangulate what you believe is true and
then you need to make decisions based on
that no one is going to be able to hand
you all the right answers but the second
you think you're the G that everybody
should listen to now we run into
problems and government is that at scale
it is a whole bunch of people who
believe they're the ones it should be
listened to and so oh God it's this
well-intentioned thing that's really
driving me nuts in culture right now
this belief that we need a group of
Elites we're probably going to have to
do like a a standalone video on this at
some point uh because I'm only going to
skim across it which is people are going
to go crazy uh that we need a bunch of
Elites that can think through these
problems for us they know better than we
do and they will lead us to the promised
land and the reality is they probably do
no better than the average person and
they won't lead you to the promised land
they will lead you straight through a
gate to hell and the framers of the
American Constitution understood that
and they understood huh we the people
are wildly flawed uh people that make it
to the elites tend towards tyranny and a
desire for control and they will read
the book Makia of ens they will
manipulate you they will uh pursue
additional power and so that's what
you're witnessing right now the only
correct response from Karen Bass from
Gavin Newsome is we [ __ ] this up and
that means what it means and while I'm
in power I'm going to do everything I
can to rectify this mistake you're never
going to hear that uh so please don't
hold your breath instead they know that
people are manipulatable and they're
going to go on a PR campaign doing their
absolute best to use this period of
Crisis to reestablish their relationship
with the voters to get them to rebeli
that they're the right people and it is
a maddening Loop and it's one of those
where man do I sort of Miss the period
of my life where I just had my head down
I was building I didn't think about any
of this stuff because I was blissfully
unaware of how I'm not even going to say
Sinister how
Machiavellian the political arena is and
how much people are lied to and
manipulated and drugged by the nose and
were it not for Co would I still be
asleep to a lot of this probably I think
a lot of people would I don't think
that's a crazy stretch that and social
media social media is is a huge part of
just everybody has a voice now that's
part of what we have to cover in that
solo episode about the Maki of ellan
Elites why I think that's a problem Oh I
did not expect to bring this up please
remember everybody I really like Sam
Harris I think he's very smart and I use
him a lot as one of my um my AIS that I
like to point at a problem and get their
take but good Lord he has so bought into
the idea that you must have an Elite
Class of people
um that can make sure that there's how
would he say it as a functioning
narrative maybe that holds people
together and points him in the right
direction oh God but his uh recent take
on Jordan Peterson was not ideal it it
was questionable to say the least uh
yeah I'm not even gonna we we haven't
prepared the clip so it's not me trying
to be funny but uh I'm not going to show
it I'm going to put your feet to the
fire about the regulation thing cuz I
think it's very interesting about the
rent controls cuz specifically what
we're noticing now is that Zillow has
shown pricing increases in rentals where
somebody would have a listing up in
January that was 12,000 a month for a
house now after their fires that same
listing is now 16,000 for a house and in
that moment is that a thing that a
regulation should fix or is it sorry bro
capitalism G capitalism supply and
demand here's the thing okay
um let me ask
you what mechanism would you like to use
to prioritize who should get that rental
what mechanism yep right now we use
price who can afford it so either the
Builder want to know I can get the
highest rents because I'm going to put a
ton of Capital At Risk to build this
apartment complex or I the landlord same
thing because I might lose this person
or during covid I just couldn't collect
rent so I've got to make sure that I've
got enough money socked away so I want
to get as much for this as I can plus we
all I would advise people hey be a
little slow to buy something because
you've got to deal with all the repairs
and all that stuff and the property tax
okay so the landlord's got to do that so
I get people think the landlord's evil
but the reality is that they're carrying
a big financial burden
and without getting into the big
corporations buying it up which I
actually have some beef with but assume
a guy that owns like a building or two
buildings and that's his retirement
that's the thing that he plans to pass
on to his kids I think it's a lot more
clarifying so right now we use price
where he's like okay whoever can afford
this and I'm going to look at the market
and see how much I can charge I'm not
going to charge more because I won't get
anybody or Prof G in that same episode
talked about how he as a landlord
charges a little bit under market so
that he can find somebody that's really
going to be a long-term person but what
mechanism would we use other than
price for real yeah right so people can
look and look and look for an answer but
the reality is the only one that's time
tested in terms of there are unintended
consequences but the least problem atic
unintended consequences is to use price
as a proxy for Value so you are able to
pay more so that's a proxy that you're a
valuable renter to me it's a proxy but
it's a proxy that you're valuable uh and
then as somebody looking at it oh it's
expensive that's a proxy for it's
probably more valuable and so as you
look at different neighborhoods and see
different prices it's a good proxy for
this neighborhood's a better
neighborhood than the next uh and then
again you get into all the unintended
consequences trying to do rent control
and Prof G I think did a very good job
of explaining the knock on effect of
that so people just need to answer that
question what are you there they're
going to be let's say a thousand people
that want to rent that thing or they
want access to the builders that are
going to rebuild the Palisades now that
it's burned down what are you going to
use you this is where I go crazy because
people do not understand how to
prioritize and because they don't
understand how to prioritize they don't
understand how prioritization happens
and so many of them are steering by
emotion and so they will hear an
individual story they will have a very
strong emotion that person should be
able to rent because I have a really
strong feeling they seem like good
people but if you go ask of the Thousand
there might be 800 people that have a
really compelling story and so now how
do you put it so now you start ranking
well cancer and being old has to Trump
being young and heal okay well now we're
still all down to here are the 17 people
that are all old and have cancer now how
do you start doing it right and so it it
will derange so fast especially because
let's say that you say we want old
people with cancer now the guy that owns
that building is like [ __ ] I've got a
bunch of people on fixed income that are
in these properties now that's hurting
my ability and so to earn and so the
next person is just like yo it's always
old people with cancer I I don't want to
[ __ ] with this anymore this is just not
a good place for me to put my Capital
I'm going to go elsewhere and then all
of a sudden we have the Prof G problem
all over again and people just aren't
building and so now it's like we need
more houses and the build's like get the
[ __ ] out of here like I'm not do you
know how much money you have to put at
risk to build that kind of building it's
a lot so anyway this is where you begin
to fractal into black rock they've got
enough Capital to start Black Rock and
companies like that have enough Capital
that they can absorb sort of the the 10
20 year lunacy of all of this stuff and
then get on the other side of this when
they can get something deregulated or
whatever uh but it there's just a way
simpler way which is yep it's gonna
really suck that people end up then
being dispersed based on Capital and so
people that can afford fancy
neighborhoods will live in fancy
neighborhoods and people that can't
afford it live in less fancy
neighborhoods uh all the way down to
just abject poverty that's ugly no one
wants to talk about that uh which is hey
we can have a whole conversation about
that and how you at least rescue people
that have the intellectual ability to
escape many people won't and it's just
going to settle that way God there's so
many fractals I'm going to stop there
no but what I'm hearing from you is that
price is the great equalizer because
that way it's do you have it or not it's
not the great equalizer because it
really does disperse people it is a
great prioritizer it allows people to go
I need a proxy one thing that we can all
agree on and the way this is going to
work is I'm going to set a price for
this and if you can afford it great I
don't care why you can afford it or how
you can afford it I just know that you
can afford it cool that's going to be it
and it's I don't have to hear
everybody's story I just know it's this
price you pay this price or you don't
once I have to get into adjudicating who
ought to be able to be in it boys and
girls if you need to know how that plays
out look at the USSR it goes to what
tens of millions of people dead if you
really look at Ma China it goes to 100
plus million people dead I'm telling you
this this isn't a slippery slope this is
directly
causitive we'll get back to the show in
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don't see that correlation let's talk
about it because I didn't say
correlation I said causation causation
so what happens is yeah okay so here's
you were up against human nature have
you ever tried to get a million people
to agree on any one thing I haven't
imagine trying it'll be hard very hard
you're never going to do it there are
going to be people who see it
differently than you there are going to
be people who are just trolling you
there are going to be people who don't
understand but they're all going to have
their own opinion so suddenly you go oh
I've got two options before me I can try
to convince people or if I can't
convince them but really believe I'm
right that what I'm doing is better for
everybody let me just kill a few of them
just a few Drew I'm just G to kill a few
just make them a little bit more quiet
so just the loud ones just the loud ones
so then everything's going to be great
moving forward I'm just going to kill
the rabble rousers now I see that one
the problem is that you end up building
all this so let me walk you build all
this resentment let me walk people
through exactly how this plays out uh to
get people in this situation where they
will go with just killing the loud ones
you have to go world's pretty unfair
isn't it drew this is pretty horrible
can you believe that your neighbor has
three cows and you don't have any [ __ ]
that guy you know how he got there Drew
he got there by taking advantage of
other people and so why don't you guys
rise up put me in
power I'm going to make sure that those
guys don't have more than you you go to
confiscate their cows they push back so
you kill them and then what you find out
is whoops that guy had three cows
because he was better at farming and so
now this is the coolock in the USSR this
is real this is not Tom making this [ __ ]
up so you kill the koks because you owed
that to the people that helped put you
in power because you promised that you
were going to make things more Equitable
Equity Equity equity and
now uh we had to kill him because he
didn't want me to take away his cow and
by the way I was telling all these guys
that he got it through corrupt means so
they'll sometimes just go kill him for
me I don't even have to do it uh and now
all of a sudden all the people that were
good enough at farming to have the three
cows and the nepotistic Sinister ones
that really did get their cows through
evil means they're all dead and so all
the ones that know how to farm are toast
and now you have the Ukrainian famine of
the 1920s and the the total death toll
ends up being over 100 million I don't
think it was just or sorry that's uh
including China uh so I don't remember
how many the Ukrainian famine killed but
it is north of 10 million if I'm not
mistaken we can fact check me here um a
lot a lot a lot a lot yeah and that is
causitive from going stoking the
resentment showing that the inequity is
all corruption versus just God has
willed it drew strike me if you think
this is wrong God has willed it such
some human are smarter and better at
things than others I hate that fact but
as far as I can tell it is a fact and as
long as that's true exacerbated by
education Tom can do a whole thing on
education that this is how people get
trapped in poverty but the reality is
some people are better at things than
others and because of that if you kill
or disempower shun Exile all the people
that are good you're left with the
people that aren't as good and they
literally just can't feed everybody and
now people start starving to death it is
directly causitive now I'm not saying
that's where we're at we are clearly not
there but I'm saying this goes back to
the episode that we did that nobody
liked where I said hey stop worrying
about this at a tribal level of
Democrats versus Republicans may maybe
Republicans have it right right now
we'll see law of unintended consequences
I'm optimistic maybe the Republicans
have it right right now but they're not
always going to have it right and so if
people feel that they have to team up
tribe up and either be red or blue
that's a suicide mission so I'm just
saying let's not do that let's think
about this from an ideology standpoint
where does this ideology lead and I'm
just saying a heavy hand in regulation
ends up going nowhere positive very very
fast even when it is well-intentioned
because no group of people is going to
be smart enough to make all the right
decisions and so you are far better to
let
very
big things play out which people are
usually referring to the Invisible Hand
of the market so the Invisible Hand of
the market is human nature at scale so
I'm just saying don't try to change
Behavior try to leverage it and the way
that you leverage it in this moment is
to let the free market do what it's
going to do now if when you let the free
market do what it's going to do you find
that there are some people that are
getting iced out and you don't like the
way they're life looks now let's start
talking about the underlying cause of
that for the sake of this episode I will
shorthand it to a single word
education man okay I I'll give you that
credit you showed me the causation how
rank controls is a hint a shadow of some
much Sinister things that already
happened in history and that we should
learn from that lesson in history and
that right now in this moment we should
be very strategic about the type of
regulations that we do yeah and I'll say
because I don't trust myself or anybody
else to know the quote unquote type of
Regulation I would just say back off
regulation as much as you can without um
letting
capitalism
go deranged and toxic and [ __ ] eating
the world because as I will repeat ad
nauseum there is pathology on both sides
so you don't want to let either of these
systems run a muck and that's why I'm
saying government is amazing we want
government I'm not a zero government guy
but I'm saying your default sent should
be light touch let's see what stands the
test of time uh let's make sure that
regulations have an expiry date let's
make sure that this stuff is benched
benchmarked against an expected outcome
and if we don't get it we shouldn't
assume it just needs longer we should
assume it's not working I'm going to put
a pin in this because I think right now
in this moment there's been a lot of
information we have seen Nome trying to
play a gotcha moment with Elon Musk on
that tweet we'll pull that tweet up and
we seen Adam Cora have a very very risle
reaction to
the the Zuckerberg not even the
Zuckerberg I would call it the uh the
gatekeeping of information and who allow
to have the information kind of flow
let's play that uh Adam C qu all you
[ __ ] [ __ ] out there that are have
your panties in a bunch because these
guys are going to be able to speak
freely now go [ __ ] yourself a thousand
times with a thousand Rusty mop handles
because you're now worried that
misinformation and disinformation after
you've been creating all the Miss and
disinformation for the last 10 years
give me a [ __ ] break you are pissed
off because you can't control the
narrative not because the narrative is
dangerous it's only about control you
guys were wrong about everything you had
control and you forced everyone to
capitulate and now you don't have
control and you hate it but it's not
it's dangerous or if it is or
disinformation then what are we talking
about ior mechon and horse Pace like
what are we talking about here it's
insane that they even have the gall to
Fain that they're upset about this new
thing and how dangerous it's going to be
I'm I'm going to I'm going to even push
back on this when he said like in the
last 10 years I could go back to like 20
years to like yes Co Miss information
but even weapons of mass destruction and
I'm sure if we dig in the files of the
90s and the 80s we're just going to see
all the way back to cave paintings used
to manipulate the tribe dude this is a
forever thing this is human nature at
scale this is okay so the idea of the
elites that we need a group of people
that will tell us how to interpret the
world it's really helpful it's really
helpful the problem is once you get
there by suppression you have a problem
so the the only way we're going to
return to a group of Elites is you have
to let anybody talk that wants to talk
the cream is going to rise to the top
and um there's going to be a lot of
problems on the way there are going to
be a lot of people who can't be trusted
that manage to get into that chattering
class it it is what it is man and this
is why as a society we have to get
obsessed with metrics what's moving Us
in the right direction what's not no one
is ever going to see everything very
clearly again again the the founders of
the US Constitution got about as close
as I think that you're going to get uh
they could never have anticipated social
media but I really think that you can
begin to filter People based on their
reaction to this very question which by
the way just for massive context he was
referring to um what's going on with
Zuckerberg and he said look I whether
Zuckerberg is being honest or not and
this is really him having an Awakening
moment I don't care the reality is when
the government comes after you as a
private citizen or as a company and says
if you don't do what we say we are going
to [ __ ] you up you realize very quickly
uh we're going to have to do what they
say and so he's saying that's why he's
mad he's mad at the government for going
after Facebook or any other company
because he wants to make it clear this
is the quote unquote Elites trying to
control the narrative so that they can
make sure that people vote the way that
they want what do they want to keep them
in power uh and that's what he's trying
to get people to see beyond and I don't
know where this goes I understand why a
Sam Harris wants there to be an elite
that control the narrative I understand
why the government wants there to be an
elite that control the narrative but in
an age where the only way to get that is
to silence people censor them bump them
off of social media debank them like
really go after them for having quote
unquote problematic views that's why I'm
like it just doesn't work in the age of
social media you're back to the whole
kolok thing where you're just like shut
up sit down and the only way to make
that happen is those elements of force
which will continue to escalate because
people won't be held down forever it
starts with a vote but it doesn't end
with a vote like if they don't get what
they want out of the vote this continues
to escalate until you get Warfare but
people will only be um subjugated
intellectually or physically for so long
before they push back it just that is
what it is I think this is a perfect
transition into the shellenberger clip
that we have pulled up here because I
don't think it's no longer we don't even
have a standard foundation anymore we
used to be you know a shared Foundation
a shared like there's nothing that
everybody can kind of say okay at least
we're all on number one some people's on
one some people's on zero some people's
in the ne we don't even believe the same
things and in the absence of that belief
who knows what happens and I think
shellenberger articulates this perfectly
that's right you know when people stop
believing in traditional religions they
become they they unconsciously you know
develop you know they develop new sense
of guilt a new vision of the Apocalypse
they invent a New Soul I mean people
think that there's this thing called
gender which is separate from your body
it's kind of like a soul my friend
Abigail shw um pointed that out and so
we just end up
recreating Christianity but in a
deformed and deranged way and and it and
the emerging quality of it is this
destructive fire like you don't it's
actually more powerful because nobody
got out there and said you know let's
let I mean somebody did say let's let
Malibu burn but that was never like the
explicit policy of the government of La
it's just something that emerges after
years of budget cuts after years of
self-hating ideologies like Dei like
climate apocalypse like the homeless
apocalypse it's just emerges kind of
deep from deep within us from some from
some self-destructive part of us so for
me if there's a foreign Invasion it came
through the human psyche not from
outside of it this is a profoundly
interesting idea I need to study Nicha
Mo he is very fascinating that was a guy
who just understood the darker side of
the human psyche uh okay so is it a true
statement that this is an echo of the
death of religion and you brought this
up in terms of we don't have a shared
belief system I think the shared belief
system thing goes a long way um having
shared beliefs and values I think is
extremely important to holding a large
group of people together but I I want to
go deeper on this idea that this is a
there is architecture in the human mind
these are my words now but there is
architecture in the human mind that
longs to kneel before something and that
we all have a god-shaped hole in us that
uh will either be filled with something
or causes the kind of derangement that
he's talking about so okay what does he
mean when he says the death of religion
necessarily brings about this
destructive tendency that manifest as
the fire uh so that's where I am unsure
if this is really an echo of the death
of religion or not or if this is simply
um people have swapped out a religious
impulse for a secular form of religion
in terms of I really want to do a
beautiful thing for Humanity which now
is Manifest as Dei but imagine for a
second there are two things at play
there there is the nitian will to power
which is very ugly Sinister
Machiavellian uh disguised as compassion
but is really evil uh I'm going to set
that aside for a second let's talk
instead about people who really looked
at the world and said wait a second uh
when people get trapped in these cycles
of poverty it is grueling and ugly and I
hate everything about it and I want to
do something about it and that became
this new religion once it becomes new
religion now it's about faith and it's
not about results and that's where I
think things derange so to understand my
worldview and how I look at all of this
is the elephant and the writer problem
so if you've never heard that idea
before it's The Human Experience is such
that the elephant are your emotions and
the writer is that part of you that you
think of as yourself and we are all
being moved around by this gigantic
elephant and most people don't even
realize that they can get a modom of
control over that elephant and so for I
think most people most of the time the
elephant is either invisible meaning
they don't even realize they're on it or
they know it's there but the emotion is
so all consuming that they cannot help
but move in the direction that the
emotion wants them to go and I've been
thinking a lot about this lately and
what I see when I look at people who are
riding on their elephant is
what they really want so this is an idea
I call invisible goals so they have an
invisible goal they they will tell you
they want to do well in their career
they want to be a better parent but the
invisible goal that's really moving them
is they want somebody to validate their
emotions and so they're on an elephant
the elephant is making their life bad
and they they will not take conscious
control of the
elephant what they want is people to say
oh my God I see that you're on this
elephant and it's ramming you into
things and that's really terrible and
I'm so sorry that that's all happening
to you uh and because people don't give
them that because they are on their own
elephants going in their own Direction
dealing with their own dramas they just
keep riding around bashing into things
uh longing for somebody to acknowledge
you're on this elephant it's ramming you
into things this is really terrible I'm
so sorry now my worldview is as long as
you want people to acknowledge that
you're on the elephant that that's
really terrible and how hard that is you
will never put the energy into going
wait a second I'm the the driver here
yeah I can take control of this I I am
the reason I'm ramming into things and
I'm going to stop ramming into things by
being less emotionally reactive by
insisting that instead of well I feel
this really strong thing therefore I'm
going to act in accordance with this I'm
going to say no no no my goal is to get
over there the elephant is ramming me
into the wall I'm not interested in that
I'm the driver and now I'm going to do
the very hard thing of pointing my
elephant in the direction I want to go
and no matter how much wrestling I have
to do I'm going to get this thing moving
in that direction uh but people never
get there because they're so longing for
people to just be like yeah I get it
this is really tragic and I'm so sorry
it's happening to you and the bad news
is even if they got that they would just
want more and more and more it's like
this insatiable desire to be told that
the person understands what you're going
through and it's terrible and uh I hope
somebody solves this problem for you
rather than realizing I'm the only one
that can solve this for myself so if
that is accurate and our emotions are
this gigantic elephant that steers us
around
people aren't looking at kpis and saying
in fact they're looking at an invisible
kpi which is how does it make me
feel and so instead of putting a known
kpi that objectively measures whether
things are getting better for the people
that they want to protect they just
double down on what makes me feel good
what makes me feel the way that I want
to feel and that then gets us into these
completely deranged things like all
these Dei policies instead of saying oo
we've just had all these historic fires
one after another after another after
another and so the champion of um
climate change becomes Greta thunberg
which is all emotion all the time the
I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to
take it anymore uh versus people going
oh interesting manmade or otherwise the
climate is changing and here's how we
can innovate around this and celebrating
those people and championing that you
get more of whatever you celebrate this
is why American soccer sucks and why
Brazilian soccer is [ __ ] gangster
level because it's just generation after
generation after generation of
celebrating people that are good at that
uh you need look no farther than
Japanese manga can't replicate it here
in the US because generation after
generation that's celebrated there so if
we celebrate all this emotive um
connection to the problem and we don't
celebrate Innovation man-made Solutions
then we're not going to get them so this
is people steering by emotion instead of
steering by outcomes this is people that
want the emotional side of it to be
recognized rather than o we're actually
this person this line of thinking is
yielding these outcomes and we want to
celebrate it one really scary question
to ask yourself when was the last time
we threw a tick or tape parade for
somebody we don't do it anymore yeah we
do it for sports teams but we don't do
it for individual accomplishment so we
have lost this sort of will to innovate
our way around things we want our
emotions to be acknowledged we've been
celerating the emotional people versus
the Engineers versus the builders versus
things like that so that way people are
now more emotional to these problems
versus the people that are strategically
building the things that can solve those
problems correct that's a very good way
to like put it do you think that there
also is kind of like a rebellion might
be the wrong word but through this kind
of lack of void that happens in our soul
our new sense of guilt that shellenberg
was talking about can it swing into the
other direction cuz for example some of
these fires were were H they happened
we're still figuring out but some of
them were arson there are some people
that are like it's burning let's burn
more let's let Malu burn and we have
this rebellious Spirit a brilliant
question yes I think is the short answer
the youth get whatever culture they want
this is why people say that demographics
are Destiny we are all responding to our
parents generation because they have
created the soup in which we're going to
grow up in so if you haven't read David
Foster Wallace's this is water read it
uh our parents generation is the water
that we all grow up in and there's a
really fascinating thing about human
nature where we will rebel against our
parents generation no matter what and uh
everybody knows the sort of four cycles
that um good time make weak men weak men
make Hard Times Hard Times make strong
men strong men make good times good
times make weak men on and on and on the
cycle goes so uh we're living through
one of these moments right now and it
has given birth to a spirit of burn it
all down because they're being Iced Out
Of A system that worked really well for
their parents has created good times so
they're growing up in like this
incredibly peaceful area this time of
Plenty air conditioning
internet uh soft serve ice cream I mean
it's just like dude but when you go back
5,000 years bro
like it's crazy but they can't make
progress progress is a foundational
pillar to human happiness so they're in
this time of Plenty they can't make
progress uh they're on the elephant they
just want people to acknowledge that
that it's super shitty for them they're
not looking at what they can do to be in
control so there's this burn it down
mentality and yeah it is very scary
because they have a belief that in
burning it down they'll build something
better which almost never happens law
intended consequences and this is why
they will give birth to hard times and
so yeah it's pretty inevitable I mean
look AI may just come in and knock all
of this around but AI is gonna do its
own fair share of helping uh speed up
the hard times long story probably
another episode um but I think you're
really on to something with this
rebellious Spirit thing and uh I think
we're seeing this manifest in other ways
so a sort of fun and funny way this is
manifesting way funnier than the arson
uh arson Rate rates about zero on my
humor scale um is red note so for people
that aren't following this US Government
we're we're in a cold war with China
people need to embrace that and if you
didn't grow up in the 80s hey welcome to
your first real cold war they're they're
a whole thing so brace yourselves
um China owns Tik Tok the government
worries that it's basically one big spy
device they're using it to map
everybody's face map all of the US uh
manipulate the algorithm so that we're
looking at dumb [ __ ] while Chinese kids
are looking at engineering and stuff
like that to push them forward um so
they're threatening to kill it we're I
think like a week away from knowing
whether this is actually going to happen
or not and all the kids said oh you
don't want us using a Chinese app we are
going to find the most Chinese app we
can find so when I heard about red note
I was like oh damn it's number one in
the app store for social media let me go
look this thing up like do we need to
get on red note is this going to be the
next thing and I do a search for red
note and the only thing that shows up is
all in Chinese it's not called red note
I mean it might be but it's in Chinese
characters I couldn't tell you if it's
uh red note or not and so I was like oh
damn like they are really trying to send
a message that uh [ __ ] you we won't do
what you tell me to quote uh Rage
Against the Machine so it's going to get
weird because if if AI does what I think
it's going to do which is absolutely
Crush their job market give them
constant never-ending existential dread
right before it ushers in the closest
thing to Utopia that we're ever going to
get but it's going to push you through
call it a seven to 10 year period of oh
God and in that period I think things
are really going to get [ __ ] weird uh
I think that's going to exacerbate this
um need to push back and
that never is fun to live through I feel
like the theme of this episode has been
unintended consequences second order
consequences kind of things like that is
there a positive to this rebellious
spirit is there oh my God it's the only
way that Society moves forward okay so
uh this is why I think we go through
hard time only to come out the other
side it's going to be glorious and
amazing and all that uh but evolution
the the longer time scales do not care
if you grow up in one of the hard times
s and everything sucks for you or you
grow up o