Kind: captions Language: en Arthur Hayes welcome back thanks for having me glad to be here dude always a pleasure especially at this point in the cycle I think today's episode is going to be a lot of fun and I want to start with why are you predicting that the Trump presidency could potentially print up to 10 trillion dollars possibly taking Bitcoin as high as a million so I think it goes back to very simply and I don't really think this is a trump thing if Harris had won her team would have done something similar maybe it would have looked a bit different but the effect would have been the same at the end of the day Trump campaigned on a progrowth policy uh he wants to bring back industry to America he wants to reinvigorate the military and none of this can happen if the majority of you know Goods produced in America or intermediate supplies are coming from China not to say there's anything wrong with China it's just that the entire American industrial base depends on stuff coming out of China whether that's refined reare Earths whether that's you know you know supply parts or whether that's finished products in in of themselves and so you've seen sort of a decline in American industry starting in 1971 when Nixon took the US off of gold standard sort of went to hyperdrive in 1994 when China devalued the Yuan and started a very concered meralis trade policy and then 2000 was the Cuda gra when the US allowed China to join the World Trade Organization and gave them essentially tari free access to the largest consumer Market in the world and China to their credit was very um diligent and built up an industrial base that at the present moment has the highest quality Goods at the lowest price and we've seen that in the automotive industry I saw a chart the other day it was um percentage of China Chinese cars in the global sold glob I think about 20 years ago was 1% today it's 40% if you go and I live in Asia and so you you go around the major cities you see the byd cars they're excellent they're beautiful they run well and they're cheap and so even if you have a massive tariff on a Chinese automobile it's still the best price car at that price point for that particular amount of quality and so the they're they're the country to beat and so Trump is campaigned on we want America to have the type of manufacturing jobs that probably people on this program or their parents or grandparents had in sort of like 1950s to you know early 1980s sort of thing okay so why does that lead though to the need to do 10 trillion is that he is he going to do things like the chips act where he's going to specifically pay companies to build manufacturing here in the US via tax breaks and things like that yeah so essentially us is going to copy the Chinese model which is uh State sanction either cheap credit through the banking system or tax credits or direct subsidies so Trump needs to make it economically feasible for an American a European or even a Chinese manufacturer to say okay instead of building my Factory in China Vietnam Mexico whatever I can build it here in America and this good is going to be price competitive with anything globally because I'm getting these massive government tax breaks or subsidies or I'm getting extremely cheap credit and so I wrote an essay about this and I went through the how the money moves for the banking system to basically show that what Trump was going to do is allow the US commercial Banks to issue credit which is essentially creates money and they'll do this because it's profitable because companies have the simplicit government back stop of subsidies tax breaks even tariff protection so it's exactly the same thing that Japan and China did to elevate their economies post World War II and so if you take a look at the amount of money that is needed just to reduce sort of the American debt to GDP down I I think I forecast something 7 or 80% from the 130 that is today I estimated it could be in the magnitude of 10 trillion obviously I don't know the exact number but that's the direction of travel if you think about the amount of implicit credit that needs to be created that need to be given to American or American you know owned factories in America to do the things that Trump wants them to do which is make Goods in America decouple the supply Chains From China all right given that they'll be using the money theoretically on productive things like manufacturing infrastructure here in the US do you still think that it's going to have the kind of inflationary impact that a million dollar Bitcoin would predict absolutely because at the end of the day the first amount of money that goes into doing these sorts of things is used productively and then it gets out of hand because a company oh I have I'm the only one who can get cheap credit I've done all the things I can do to bring all the production that makes sense economically onore in America but because I have this special I don't know credit arrangement with the US government and its banking system I'm going to start going into the financial sphere so whether it's property or it's trading stocks or stock BuyBacks and so the credit is always misallocated you could take a look at China as a poster child you know the credit was absorbed in a profitable way you know probably from the 1990s up until you know mid 2010s but then that was the development model they didn't know how to change from something else the credit kept coming the banks kept giving you know state owned companies and those were in the in the U approved Industries credit and what did they do they bought Apartments they became you know real estate developers they were punting stock in the stock market um and doing all these sorts of things buying trophy Assets in the United States and Europe wineries like you know large buildings all these sorts of things these companies had no business doing that but they had the cheapest Credit in the world and therefore they were going to use it and their investors expected them to use it and the same thing will happen in the US the first amount of credit will be used productively and then it'll be misallocated I like to think that 100K Bitcoin is the demarcation point of where any naysay ER it's just dead like that conversation is over you've got your straggler and Peter Schiff who's just not going to let it go uh but it it really seems like that argument just doesn't make sense anymore with the level of institutional adoption that we have uh the height of the the amount um so for it to get to a million dollars where is the the capital flowing is it purely from people that are aware that inflation is happening or is this a continued cultural momentum of adopting a new asset class so the first thing people need to understand is that the the price on the screen is the marginal price of the last trade it's not every trade that's happened and so it's the the simple example is how do you become a trillionaire well you create some fictitious company with a trillion shares and then you sell one of them to your friend for a dollar now you're a trillionaire right the marginal price is a dollar on trillion shares therefore you're a trillionaire so I'm not saying that there needs to be you know a million dollars traded every day at that bitcoin price I can see $1 to trade at a million dollars and that's a million dollar Bitcoin and that informs our psychological perspective and what we think Bitcoin is worth so with that in mind what I'm talking about is the marginal flows into Bitcoin well the supply of Bitcoin is fixed we know 21 million will ever be produced however as you have people like Black Rock Michael sailor at micro strategy long time holders like myself and others people who are just getting into the the game now and you know believe in a future path of Bitcoin over the next 5 10 15 20 30 years are they going to sell why would you sell Bitcoin for fiat currency if you implicitly believe that the US government and every other major government is going to increase the amount of that fiat currency at Infinium that's the reason why you got into Bitcoin so as the price Rises there's less people who want to sell it and if we have this institutional adoption through the ET f s and other sort of corporate uh Finance Vehicles those are sticky uh forms of holding which take Supply out of the market which means it's very easy to have a very exponential rise in the marginal price of Bitcoin the last traded price of Bitcoin so I think that's one facet of just how a micr structure of a market works when you have a fixed Supply and a holding base that doesn't want to sell it against an asset that can be infinitely debased and then the other side you have the United States trying to Res resore industry issuing credit you have China has a property bust and they want to protect their industry and they're starting down the path of quantitative easing they just recently announced that they're okay with allowing their currency to depreciate because they believe it's going to help them in their fight against the the new Trump 2.0 tariffs you have the European Union Statesmen like Mario dragi and Emanuel macron open ly saying that we need to print more money to revitalize the European industrial base and you have Japan which continues to run the easiest monetary policy of any major developed Nation so if you take a look at the entire world in terms of the largest four countries in economic blocks they all are printing money for various different reasons that's only going to continue it's accelerating in fact and so we have a supply diminishing supply of freely traded Bitcoin with an expanding supply of fiat currency looking for a home and if we believe that more people are changing their mindset to say okay crypto it's survive 15 years it's going to be here for another 15 20 100 years whatever I feel okay thinking that this is going to be a store value I can use it to pay for things when I need therefore I'm going to take two three four five 10% of my retirement income or savings and now start buying this asset and so all these things come together and that's what creates a marginal price of a million dollars per Bitcoin how fast do you think we get there I I don't know three three to five years now uh you had called in one of our earlier conversations you had called 100K Bitcoin which at the time I remember seemed very aggressive do you feel like you were pretty bang on with the timing to get to 100K yeah roughly you know December is we're here it's 100 104,000 or whatever it is we'll see what it ends the end of the end of the year when people do their sort of tax optimization sort of things but I think you know out of the many predictions that have gotten wrong I got this one right well yeah I mean look I don't think anybody's going to get them all right but directionally this one seems like you've had your eye on it for a while uh so when I talk to Michael sailor he really looks at Bitcoin as like a physical law of nature certainty that money wants to go from high entropy where it can be inflated there's all kinds of chaos happening to effectively the price I don't know if he'd use that word but certainly uses entropy and that it just naturally wants to go to a low energy state where there's um less manipulation of the currency where it's it's going to be more static from a buying power perspective um do you see that same inevitability do you look at this as a physics problem or is this the inflation cultural problem from your perspective well there's a I think the econom economist who may it's a Gram's law um you spend back bad money you say you hoard good money right so what's the bad money the bad money is fiat currency US dollar euro Yen Chinese Yuan what's the good money Bitcoin gold to some extent and so what are people doing they're spending the Fiat they're saving they're hoarding the Bitcoin the gold right so I think that's called gresham's law could be mistaken on that so yeah you could put in a physics term you can put it in sort of an um economics term you can take a look what happened in sort of like why are uh Germany during their hyperinflation during the 1930s in terms of people got their their their marks they spent them as quickly as possible but they were also hoarding gold um because they knew that was a real that was a real money uh at that time so we're seeing the similar sort of thing just starting today and yeah sailor can put it in sort of a physics terms but I think in sort of a a social cultural norm we've seen this before every time any major civilization has failed and they always put money they always debase the currency whether you're in a gold standard or not it's the same thing over and over again if you read enough history it looks the same it feels the same the reason I delineate that is if this is a physics question then sailor's idea of getting because he puts the base case over the next 21 years that bitcoin's going to hit 13 million I don't know how you feel about that number but for him it's you can create inputs and outputs and see how rapidly the money is going to go from sort of that bad state of Fiat into the more um sound physics money of Bitcoin uh so he likened it to a waterfall and it's like once the water starts pouring over the edge you know as long as the water line is above uh the channel for the waterfall it is going to drain out back to equilibrium it is a matter of physics for him whereas if it's cultural then we are still open to what um I Heard Ral Paul referred to as the path of most pain because this is the the thing that scares me when I look at this sailor is it's ballsy man don't get me wrong and I'm as inspired as anybody else seeing what he's done uh but nothing seems guaranteed in the future and so to treat it like a physical certainty I don't know man I just I don't have the coones I guess I I mean I think you have to take sailor with a pinch of salt and understand where his position that he's coming from he is essentially issuing dollar denominated bonds and you know I guess infinite Supply if he can and and buying Bitcoin and every three to five years he needs to roll over a certain portion of his debt and if his stock price is below the conversion price of his convertible bonds he might have an issue so yes he wants the market to believe it's a physical certainty because then you're not going to question the ridiculous price that you're paying for his stock um I more in sort of the the cultural phenomenon sort of Camp we're humans we're going to over in the short term we're going to say oh wow you know bitcoin's a million 100 million whatever the number is this is a physical certainty this is the last cycle ever you know you hear those sorts of things on on the internet but the at the end of the day we'll get ahead of ourselves we'll we'll forecast some crazy dystopian scenario of some crazy hyperinflation and then if you start to underperform the craziness then the price of Bitcoin looks a little bit High maybe it comes down a bit and so I think that um markets go up markets go down we as humans were over optimistic and over pessimistic we're not at that stage yet but I definitely could see at a point of the cycle where there we believe that there is no way that fiat currency could ever fix any of these problems therefore Bitcoin is going to Infinity you'll hear people saying this the last cycle and all this kind of nonsense and then the price will dump 90% so I am more in the sort of cyclical nature of of markets that's the physical certainty in my respect based on human nature yeah I uh I think the safer bet is definitely on the human nature side but I mean look shout out to sailor obviously at at this moment in time he looks phenomenal it's unbelievable what he's done so I'll use my words I I have a feeling he wouldn't love this description but the way that I look at what he's done with a micro strategy stock to what you were saying is he's basically taking taken a normal stock with a treasury in Bitcoin layered a casino on top of it so that people can come in and play whatever Risk game they want to play if they want the ultra High Vol he's got stuff on Leverage and so the the volatility there is just absolutely Whiplash Manic and so for people that want that extreme volatility they can be in there but he's also got things where he stripped out a lot of The Upside but also a lot of the downside and people can get into that and so it's I mean that move alone almost regardless of what happens to Bitcoin in the long run the genius of being the first Bitcoin treasury mover layering that equities component on top of it which is what I refer to as the the casino uh brilliant absolutely brilliant yeah absolutely I think from a as somebody who loves you know Finance what he's done in sort of a corporate finance situation with his convertible debt how he's termed it out how he used his access to the you know corporate debt markets in you know the United States to be able to issue 0% uh coupon convertible debt is a genius move uh he needs volatility that's what you're trading so go up go down Bitcoin needs to move if Bitcoin stops moving a lot then the micro strategy trade might get into a bit of trouble but again I wouldn't worry about that now that's three to five years sort of down the road situation right now it's it's the bull market so you know when the uh When the Music's playing you got to dance no doubt all right talk to me about the dance so high volatility this was something that I didn't really uh appreciate nearly enough volatility seemed bad I like that the government was stripping volatility out of everything but the more that I listen to you the more I realize that volatility is the game uh that if you're trading that volatility is the light around which all the moths gather explain volatility to us why is it good so at the end of the day what is life life is risk right every moment that we exist in this universe you know I wouldn't go so far to say this but some people say the universe is trying to kill you right you enter this world you we all lose man whether it's trying or not it gets us it gets us in the end right and so at the end of the day we're trying to make these calculations all the time about how do I structure my life so that I can survive longer in this universe and so at the end of the day I'm I want to have a strip of bets that where the upside when I'm right is you know greater than what I pay to take that bet intrinsically so our life is a strip of options and so the more volatile the situation the more valuable the option but the game name of the game is how do I pay the least amount of Premium as possible in life so that I make decisions where my you know getting it right pays me more and sort of you know feel good things versus what it cost me to to take that bet so we live in a volatile Universe volatility is our friend suppressing volatility is not natural and so government says hey I through my ability to have you know legalized violence and kill people because they don't follow my rules I'm going to protect you and so let me smooth out that life curve for you do what I say is is is essentially the name of the game for for any type of government and there is some benefit to that but Tak it to the extreme which is what you know central banks have done over the past you know 50 years or whatever it is then you start to get into this unnatural state where the volatility is so low relative to what the natural just es and flows of life in this universe are and and then things just blow up right and so you think you're safe and then you get a 2008 housing crisis or you get you know the European crisis in 2011 or you get the regional banking crisis in the US in 2023 and these are all sympatic of government saying we're just going to print a bunch of money and suppress volatility but volatility is natural we want volatility we want to construct a situation where we have volatile upside outcomes with capped downside and that's really the goal and so that's what you know Bitcoin and crypto really represents is there's this outcome where all the Fiat money in the world needs to come into Bitcoin obviously that's not going to happen but you can think of that as sort of the extreme example and your cost is the price that you pay today for Bitcoin so some people paid a dollar for Bitcoin back in you know 2010 and if they held on now it's worth 104,000 right but the most I could ever lose was a dollar and so why wouldn't you take that bet you you know how much you're going to lose it's the amount of fiat currency that you sold to buy Bitcoin and so you can sort of self- select your risk profile based on your own situation but there's always an amount of money that you can really to lose to earn the 10,000 100,000 million dollar X return on something like Bitcoin let's take a quick break from my conversation with Arthur Hayes to discuss something every business owner needs to hear most companies are are drowning in data but starving for insights Market volatility sticky inflation endless supply chain issues you're probably making bigger decisions with less certainty than ever before after building three multi-million dollar companies I know exactly what you're up against that's why I want to tell you about netw Suite by Oracle think of it as mission control for your entire business bringing accounting inventory HR and financial management into one powerful platform here's what makes it different one source of Truth No More jumping between systems or hunting down accurate numbers you get realtime insights across your entire operation letting you spot Trends before they become problems and instead of spending weeks closing your books you'll do it in days want to stay ahead of the technology curve download the cfo's guide to Ai and machine learning at netsuite.com Theory the guide is free to you at netsuite.com Theory again that's netsuite.com Theory I want to talk to you about our sponsor found banking for all the entrepreneurs and business owners who listen to this podcast you are definitely going to want to hear this so stay tuned for a second the biggest waste of a Founder's time is the Mind numbing hour spent jumping between banking apps expense trackers and tax software that's why I am very excited about found banking it's a financial tool that actually thinks like an entrepreneur found automatically categorizes every expense for tax writeoffs estimates what you'll owe in real time and even sets that money aside automatically tround for free at found.com impact that's found f n.com impact found is a financial technology company not a bank banking services are provided by Pont Bank member FDIC founds core features are free they also offer an optional paid product found plus where people go wrong is when they hear volatility they think it's a one shot as in Oh either this goes to zero or it goes up to 104,000 but that's not the volatility that Traders seek the volatility Traders seek is I want highall in a day I want it to Whiplash up and down up and down up and down up and down rapidly and that way here's how High read volatility I want that rapid whip saw up and down because I'm smarter than the [ __ ] that Panic sold when it went down and so I know I'm going to buy low and sell High and the reality is that um most people are the buy high and sell low guy so given that hard fact of life are people foolish to like the high volatility well people are foolish to like the high volatility and have a high frequency of trading so what you described is somebody who was actively trading in a very volatile situation I'll make an there this is a very simple example it's called volatility drift this is why you should never ever ever buy any leveraged ETF they're terrible products I should know I've structured many of them so you essentially if I take something that's 100 start a nominal price of 100 and it goes down 10% goes down to 90 and then I go up 10% I go up to 90 99 so I've on an arithmetic basis gone down 10% gone up 10% but I'm down $1 right that's volatility drift and so when you're day trading in and out in and out and out or using these products that are sort of these daily volatility resetting products you're exposing yourself to what we call negative Gamma or volatility drift and that's not good but if you say I'm a Buy and Hold type of person you're the the Warren Buffett type of person and you're going to compound over time by systematically trying to reduce your total your your expected loss if you get it wrong but just keep keep stay in the game if you stay in the game then over time you should do well but the more you trade the more money you lose and that's just a fact and so I think the fallacy is oh I like high volatility I want to go to the financial markets casino and start trading and then obviously you fall prey to the simple nature of like you know as humans we have no idea what the future holds and so trying to trade on sort of like a very short time frame is a recipe to lose all your money of course there are these few Traders out there who are the standout exceptions to that and they're sort of paraded across the um Financial mainstream media oh look what this guy did you know he turned a thousand dollar into a million dollars day trading every day here's this system do this do that pay me a bunch of fees right so day trading unless you're very very good at it you will lose lose all your money and yes the volatility is makes it fun so if you approach it as an entertainment situation like you go to the casino you're going to play crops you know you're gonna lose money but it's fun I'm gonna have some drinks hang out with my friends approach financial markets okay I'm gonna go trade on my on my brokerage account or my crypto account or whatever tra of meme coins I'm having fun my price of fun is the Thousand doll that I'm going to lose over time but it's fun because I know yeah maybe if I get really lucky it could turn into a million dollars but over time I'm going to $1,000 yeah uh I think that's actually the accurate way to think about most of the uh certainly the stock market most of Finance in general is that and the more I study Finance the more I become convinced this is all a game of gambling uh and it's just a level of sophisticated gambling I won't derail us on that because I really get soap boxy about this uh but I would just like to quote what you just said a second ago the more you trade the more you lose now I don't know how much trouble that's going to get you uh for distilling it down like that but I think it's really important for people to understand that all right I want to keep going on volatility so what is it that makes for volatility is it somebody panics and sells is that the only thing that pulls the price down well the price can go up too so I think people ass get more people want into a finite thing but what I want to understand is to the downside what what makes some because when somebody says High volatility you're never going to get an only up obviously everybody wants that they want the only up volatility I get it that's the fantasy but that's not the reality so high Vault Traders are all for something that whipsaws up and down so I want to know what causes the down because I think it's someone losing yeah so it's it's basically the the fear of loss and how you feel about losing money is more is stronger than the amazing feeling you make money right so I'm more afraid of losing the $100 and making than the the joy I feel when I make the thousand and so as the fear of loss kicks in oh [ __ ] I need to make sure that I have this Capital oh that was my car payment that was my mortgage that was my kids college fund maybe I shouldn't have been yoloing on on that Meme stock let me just get out of this right now to like make sure that I have that some of that Capital left and that's the natural human reaction which caus you to just like jam that cell button as soon as you see things aren't going your way which is obviously not what you should be doing you should be able to wear the Up and the down volatility and equid but that's not human nature at the end of the day yeah so uh this is why anybody in my community that can hear me speaking as long as you understand that high volatility means when it goes down that's somebody losing it's somebody panicking that they've already actually lost or they are actively losing or even worse they've been liquidated and so it all goes to absolutely zero if they were trading on Leverage so seeking out High volatility is to seek out maximum pain someone in there in in the high volatility there are people losing and running for the exit and as long as you understand the more you trade the more you lose great if you see yourself as somebody playing craps I love it but man when I talk to my own employees uh which gearing up for this episode I had people walking in because they were listening to us prep uh for our time together and so once we started talking about altcoins all of a sudden people are here they're like What's that ala man you're talking to Arthur we want to hear about it and I'm just like guys I need to know that you know the game that you're playing and as long as you're treating this like a weekend to Vegas I'm here for it uh but if you're not I get scared um two things do you know have you heard the Bruno Mars story no so The Story Goes I cannot verify this but there are people online verifying it saying they were there so he's doing uh a stint at uh MGM performing and basically people are saying he's an indentured servant because he lost I think 52 or 53 million at the casino and then when they called him he said I I can't pay it so they said well guess what have an idea yeah so I mean look it it's rumor I can't verify it but it's one of those where people are talking pretty openly about I was there this is what happened uh that that's the kind of thing that you can end up in real trouble these these losses can stack super fast um okay so that was just a fun bit of uh info but now I want to talk about um uh Murad do you know him yes so I we we were on a podcast together maybe a few weeks ago or a month ago yeah so I'm familiar with him we we uh chatt for a bit it was a very entertaining um chitchat okay so he's got a new theory on Meme coins and how they really do offer utility and he he has a very interesting take on what they are um before we get to that what's your take on Meme coins and altcoins uh what do you think is going on and are they heating back up right now so number one the authorities globally are trying to restrict volatility and channel you into their preferred investment products which are government bonds which you know we can talk of ad nauseum about this are intrinsically going to be debased insanely amounts they want you to go into the you know super safe you know bond fund that's going to get crushed by inflation that they have to use to write their balance sheet so that's what they want you to do but people are like [ __ ] this I I want to be EXC I want something exciting I want something where I believe that the game isn't rigged and so you get the GameStop situation that started kicked off in was a 20121 in January now we have meme coins which are intrinsically all worthless no one's out there saying they're worth anything they don't have no utility they do nothing they literally are just a manifestation of human culture that we can trade and so what is the most important part of human culture the parts of human culture that everybody is participating in has the most attention so when you're trading mcoins and a lot of altcoins you're trading attention is this community able to grab more and more attention of the world of the investing public is their their joke their video their image their tagline is it catchy do I hear more and more people saying viewing these memes if so okay I'm going to buy this particular mem coin and it'll go up in price as the attention that it Garners increases and then obviously all cultural things diminish over time at some point that cultural artifact becomes irrelevant the zise changes and then it falls precipitously in price and so what mcoins are are it's essentially Humanity human culture attention economy encapsulated in this 247 trading Market that anyone with an internet connection can access and that's what they are and that's why they're so much fun to trade because this is the first time in human history where literally oh I saw that on social media my friend was talking about it I think more people will talk about it in the future therefore I will buy this meme coin today because I know others will buy more of it tomorrow the very succinct summation and I think that that is really an orienting mechanism for people mean coins are useless it's tradeable culture uh what I want to make sure people don't miss in what you said is that while they may not have utility it doesn't mean that it's not fun to get in and trade it doesn't mean that this isn't a huge moment with billions of dollars uh flowing in and out of it uh and that's what I think um Murad I think that's how you pronounce his name has really um summed up he's got this idea of PVP meme coins AKA hyper gambling uh versus PVE meme coins AKA Colts and just the idea of using gamer technology to speak to the people that are really playing this game and I think that is it's very important if you want to understand this moment so I will research with my producer or build out an interview with my producer oftentimes here on set which means that the team can hear us and it's pretty rare that people will walk up and want to listen in uh as soon as we started talking about meme coins specifically as it relates to you as sort of the KE king of meme coins uh we had people come in and so I went around to each of the people here at my company and was just like you know do you trade meme coins do you trade meme coins and most of them were yes one or two were like I don't even know what that means um they could play in the stock market they could go to the casino what is it about meme coins is is it the sense that they can win the game that they can outsmart people like why are meme coins supercharged they were in the last cycle I can feel it building up again in this cycle there's something that really grips people well the first thing is that true meme coins you know the are non PVP meaning there's a a team Anonymous team whatever they in this cycle it's pumped. fun on Solana which is the main conduit which we launching these things they put out 100% of the supply on day one they launch a pool on rum or one of these decentralized exchanges and anyone can get in at ground level there's nobody who got in before you who has a whole entire Financial Services System set up to dump on you which is what the stock market is you know the people who Capital formate in the private rounds for the most promising technology companies in at least in the last 30 years are the ones selling to you on IPO day and obviously they're going to do whatever they can to get you to buy at an inflated valuation now sometimes you get a Facebook and sometimes you get a pets.com right but at the end of the day you will never become Mark andreon you will never become Peter theel because those guys got in when Facebooks are the type of companies when they were selling at you know $10 million valuations $20 million valuations you will never get that deal as a rual investor you get the 10 billion dollar Facebook deal well now maybe 10 billion goes to a trillion but imagine if you got it at 10 million to a trillion obviously there's a lot of risk I'm glossing over that like VCS are taking a lot of risk in the early stages but they've got an entire ecosystem of laws regulations intermediaries set up to make sure that they as successful as possible because they're going to make sure that retail cannot participate in the most promising companies early they can only do it late and so everybody intrinsically understands this this was this was the whole angst about why these you know hedge funds able to short these stocks and do essentially possibly illegal things and you know Ken Griffin calling the exchange you know I'm sure didn't do that but you know shutting down the trading of these stocks because they're too volatile because there's a bunch of these Legacy institutions are going to lose a lot of money like people intrinsically understood the stock market was rigged they saw it explicitly in action in 2021 and now you have this crypto thing where the best mecoin projects are ones where everyone could have gotten in on the the ground level there is no there's no Insider who got a better deal than you if you saw it first and you were able to act quickly you got in to you know dog with hat at a very low valuation or Pepe or um harambe or some of these other very successful meme coins you could have gotten the 10,000x return you will never get that return on the next Facebook as a retail investor and that is the meta narrative that's powering people to say well [ __ ] the stock market [ __ ] the bond market [ __ ] all these coins that I wasn't able to get in early if I was willing to take that risk I want to take the risk I want to try to hit the 10,000x return because if you look at a mathematical basis is actually um expected value positive because you investing in Facebook at the IPO the stock dumped like I know 75 80% over the last the next two years after the IPO you're already down 80% the mcoin you bought that you know that is intr intrinsically worthless could also go down 80% but Facebook will never return you 10,000 times the meme coin can and so you actually are from an expected value perspective better off punting extremely risky meme coins than buying at the top of the market extremely risky from a Market's perspective new technology companies so that's why meme coins are a thing they're going to continue to be a thing as more people learn about the centralized exchanges about browser based wallets about how to move their Fiat dollars into a token that represents those Fiat dollars like an Athena tether a usdc on circle on chain they're going to be doing more of this style training and they're going to demand from teams that they reduce or eliminate the ability for insiders to get a deal better than them if you want my participation in your community if you want me to talk about your product if you want my attention then you need to give me the same deal that everybody else gets and I'm going to take the same risk and I could lose all my money but I also could make 10,000 x so that's meme coins what encapsulates to me as a as a movement as we sort of get more comfortable being completely on chain and sort of disintermediating all of the financial intermediaries that take a cut and restrict access only up until the time when they want to dump on you all right so the question becomes then is this a child's tantrum and these are just people annoyed with the current system or is this a new system that the the youth is building from the ground up I think it's a new syst that the youth is building from the ground up once you start trading mem coins and having 247 access to your money it's very difficult to go back to trading stocks at you know N9 to5 and you see that the stock markets are realizing oh [ __ ] okay we didn't want to do 247 trading but it's happening we need to get there because our competition is this crypto thing thing where they can people can trade things when they get off of work when they're on the subway when they wake up in the morning wherever they feel like trading there's a market we as a legacy stock and bond markets need to meet the customer the Gen Z's where they're at they want 247 trading they want app based trading they want intuitive UI ux we need to give it to them or they're never going to trade this my stock again and so yes you're going to see 247 trading you're going to see more Robin Hood Type interfaces that are going to allow retail traders to get this sort of look feel that they get on a on sort of a a DEX in crypto or you know how you're trading on pump that Fund in in meme coins so we're going to start seeing Legacy Finance mirroring what's going on in the crypto and decentralized finance space because the youth wants to trade and invest differently than you know the Boomers that is really interesting so I'm going to start putting a couple pieces together so here's what I just heard meme coins are worthless they're not real yet they're very real because they are capturing cultural energy of the youth who have realized the system that they have stepped into is rigged um I want to put a point on the way it's rigged this was when I first began to realize that the system had such deep flaws that people should be very angry I became accredited investor when I made a ton of money and I was like but I don't know anything about investing so this seems now unfair to me that I now have access to deal flow and opportunities that the average person doesn't have who may know 10 times a 100 times more than me about investing so to your point the traditional system has like all this before it IPOs thing which is where I i' shudder to think the percentage of The Upside that is captured before it IPOs like if you took all of the market over the last 100 years uh it's it's so L disproportionate to the people that are in before the IPO which the average person cannot be a part of uh so now you see the youth sort of do these start and stop movements so first they try Occupy Wall Street they don't really know what they want it doesn't go anywhere but you can feel the Rage Against the Machine then you get uh the GameStop movement where they realize oh wait a second we can actually use this against these guys and we can make money but like there was such an ethos of don't sell that the one hero to come out of GameStop was the guy that didn't sell right so even though he wrote it all the way up and all the way back down he was a hero because it was like this this real bottomup youth movement but then that becomes and I know that Meme coins were happening at the same time but that becomes the memec coin movement which I think now is really gaining legitimacy in the youth culture via the mechanisms you're talking about which is we're not going to let people in before us cuz originally meme coins were still like that same sort of corrupted system of there's a layer of people that are getting access to this before you literally VCS driving the price up through a bunch of hype and then it would just stair step down from there not stair step it sort of Spike up and down as people would pump and dump as they say uh but all the value was captured before it went live and so now seeing the movement become not the distracted movement of Occupy Wall Street but the very concentrated movement of I see an opportunity to build a new system and that new system is going to be totally equal the the token gets launched to everybody if you're a VC and you want in you got to buy in the market just like everybody else um that's very interesting but the thing that matters most to me is the way that it it is the emperor's new close where finally the nature of trading is revealed as gambling full stop and that's been something I've had a really hard time convincing people they want to layer narrative and all this on the top of it the market is gambling in in a very refined fashion because I'll grant you that all of life is gambling you once said to me walking up the stairs taking the elevator versus walking up the stairs is gambling fair but it's not refined gambling in the way that the stock market is this new system meme coins is like the the cut pure cocaine of gambling I mean this this is a shot right up the nose man uh it is really really fascinating what do you think is going to happen with all of that explanation what's going to happen this cycle crypto Haze people turn to you you've got a good read on this stuff what's going to play out everyone knows you can't predict the future but you've got a a good ability to read the room what's going to happen well meme coins is an asset class you know the all of are starting you know I get all these you know deals I messages I got one overnight hey we've got all the major K's you know do you want to like invest in this particular meme coin X XNY Market maker on board XNY you know high-profile VCS are on board and we're going to launch launch this coin so we're starting to see that because we as Traders we've got you know a large Capital base we need to be where the market's at the market is mem coins and this particular type of capital formation so now you're seeing starting to see people to to ape these particular types of things now the problem with that is when people like me are launching a meme coin I know it's going to fail because I'm not the culture the culture is the man or woman who's sitting in their basement angry or sad or happy or some sort of emotion about something talking about it with their friends on Discord or twitch or whatever and coming up with the culture I am not the culture I'm a consumer of the culture I cannot dictate what the culture is and if people like me with money are trying to dictate the culture I guess that's going to go to zero immediately not not that the other one's not going to go to zero too but at least that's Grassroots bottom up and has a little bit more authenticity than a bunch of rich people saying I'm going to create a mem coin and yeah it's going to go up in price so all all that is to say that is it the thing now people realize that there's money to be made one of the most profitable decentralized applications this cycle is pumped out fun they make something like I don't know5 to10 million in fees every day uh in terms of when you're launching these things and so we in the invesment community we know this is a thing we know this is how the market is going to evolve there are going to be you know Meme coins that are going to approach the valuation of Dogecoin right Dogecoin is the original meme it does nothing stated by the founder of the thing and now you have you know a a potential Department in the United States government with the acronym of of dots just because it's funny and and memeable right and so if you have government officials getting into this game then it's only going to get bigger that doesn't mean the meme coin that you own is going to go up in price there's going to be a system I don't know what that is you know I I'm just a punter I'm just a gambler just like you when I trade these things but there will be a few standout success meme coins that are you know 50 to 100 billion dollar market cap things there'll be a few of those and then people will be chasing those and most of them will by the next cycle there'll still be meme coins but the memes that around this cycle will be cents on the dollar and worthless so again it's going to it's going to get more silly I don't know what the the most silliest memec coin thing is going to be this cycle but it'll be pretty obvious in hindsight but we won't know what it is when we're in the moment and how would you advise somebody if they were going to come to you and say look uh Arthur I know that this is just gambling I'm just having fun I'm probably going to end up on the negative side of this but I want to have a great time but I I do want to do this with a thesis um what thesis would you give them just like Blackjack has like rules you hit on this you don't hit on that you can obviously ignore them but what rules would you give uh a meme coin Lord how should they how should so how do I mean this is how I approach when I start trading these things so number one I'm always late I don't ever want to be early I'm not trying to be early yes there are the the people that are early mean they get something really cheap and it does the $1,000 next but you've got to invest in a lot of things to hit those because you're not you're not sure what you know what $10 million market cap mean coin is going to grow to a billion very very difficult so if you look at the stats from pump. fund and I might be getting these things off by order of magnitude but the number of meme coins that are between a 100 million to1 billion dollar market cap is something like 0.01% of all launch meme coins this cycle the ones that get from 1 billion plus there's probably less than 10 right of all the I don't know it's probably 10,000 or so 100,000 whatever a number of meme coins that have launched between you know the pump out fund has been around the last what 18 months something like that so the memec coin Market is very Lindy and to talk about Nim talib's terms right what has been success what's valuable in the past is more likely to be valuable in the future so I want to play in the $100 million to $500 million market cap coin if your coin can get enough attention to get to that market cap then I'm going to bet that you go to a billion dollar plus right so I'm looking at a you know 2 to 10x return but it's very unlikely that the 100 million $1500 million market cap memec coin goes down 95% very very quickly because it's already got this inbuilt community and the momentum building so it's it's Lindy in the in the mcoin space so that's when I want to place my bets tell me something's above $100 million market cap where am I hearing about it who's telling me about it which types of influencers on Twitter or in the certain chat rooms okay I look at the chart I like I like things that have made higher highs it doesn't matter if it dumps but did it dump did it retake the high or did it get in a smidgen did it get close but then fell fell again so I want to look at the chart and through charts I can read human emotions is this emotional roller coaster petering out or is it a healthy expansion uh in the future and that's how I view sort of mcoin trading and I'm okay losing money because again what am I trying to hit I'm trying to hit a two to 10x that's my goal I want a100 million doll mem coin to a billion dollars if it goes from a100 million to $50 million I'm probably just going to cut it fine if it goes from 100 to 250 to 500 I'm adding I'm adding two winners I'm cutting losers and so then I'm building a position as it goes up I see it get to billion do I think it's going to go to 10 or 20 or 30 maybe but I had a plan I executed on my plan I'm probably going to exit the market again I'm not trying to hit a 10,000x I'm trying to hit a 2 to 10x with cap downside in terms of how I'm going to close my positions so I'm very methodical about it and I know that I have no intrinsic skill at this because again I'm late this isn't what I do for living I'm not in the chat rooms all day and so it needs to be something that comes up through just my general living and talking to people within the industry but something that's hot and when you talk about the Lindy idea which uh I can't remember if you defined it but Lindy is the longer something has existed the more likely it is to exist into the future um but does that cross Cycles or given what you said about last Cycles ones being sort of pennies on the dollar this cycle is this all sort of tied up in we have the this goes in cycles for anybody hearing about this the first time so it'll go in a cycle where it's like up up up only up oh my God it's going to go on forever crash and then there's like some period of time often measured in years before we get back and the energy builds up again and and that's very much where we are now I can feel the energy building back up does Lindy Cross or would you say eh if it was big in the last cycle ignore it it's not going to be big again look for the new stuff so I am on the opinion of look for the new stuff and I only want to I only trade meme coins when I like the macro situation when I like the money printing situation the pace of it the feeling about it the talk about it that okay it's time to trade meme coins because again I'm very risk averse I want to make my 10x return in a matter of weeks I don't want to be sitting there with this coin that I know is intrinsically worthless that will just naturally lose attention because we're humans we want what's the new thing where's the culture moving I don't want to be you know stuck in the 90s in the knots right and so at the end of the day I want to make sure that the Market's in a going up mood so I I wake up in the morning and oh great my thing's up 20% oh great it's up 20% I'm in going up mode I do not want to be in going down mode or sideways mode because at that point in time there's better uses of my Capital now it's time to look for Value okay who's building something you know real where I know that the price that they're selling it at is very cheap relative where it's going to be when we're in going up mode I I shouldn't be Trading meme coins you should be trading meme coins at least in my perspective you know in 2022 2023 reason why M my fund is done so well is because we were investing in the depths of the bare boring market now we do very little early stage deals it's all what's going up tell me what's going up tell me where the culture is we're in going up mode I want to be on that I don't care about the fundamentals of what I'm buying I know most of the stuff will not last in the next cycle but the liquidity is at my back we're in going up mode so I need a dance so let's buy stuff so that's how I view the trading landscape but again I'm very loss verse I don't want to lose money to a large extent and so I limit my bets to things and I limit my time frame to something I'm comfortable with and every that's different for everybody this is like anti-value investing I love it this is uh absolutely fascinating uh so you said that you're not in the chat rooms the people that you see be successful with meme coins or I'll say it as a statement for my side you tell me if you've seen the same the people that I know that have done wellish obviously there's no guarantees here but that have done wellish in the last two cycles with meme coins live in the chat rooms for them it's all about that sort of back room energy what's hyped what's that early Alpha uh who gets the sense that there's cracks in the narrative that maybe this isn't going to play out and so they know and did take their chips off the table I've been in groups where people will literally say okay are we bu we buying now we selling now like what are we doing and they're trying to coordinate and block blocks I think partly to it actually doesn't feel like they're trying to pump and dump what it feels like is they don't want to be the last man standing they don't want to be the last one to realize oh we're going to sell they don't want to make a dumb decision if everybody gets out together then they feel less dumb if it goes up and if um Everybody stays they feel less dumb if it goes down and then if there's wisdom in the crowd then they're able to take advantage of it but it feels like if you're not doing that odds of you keeping your finger on the pulse are very low would you agree with that absolutely mean to be a crypto day trader if you want to be a stock day trader a Forex day trader options day trader pick your financial asset class if you if this isn't your full-time job you will lose all your money just period if you're not putting in the work then you will not get the reward if you can't do that because of your mental predilection or your full-time job then be more of a Buy and Hold type person doesn't mean you can't trade meme coins but you know maybe want to treat something with a little bit more Lindy maybe you're not in the chat rooms buying the 1 million $10 million market cap Point thinking it's going to go to a billion you're buying the $500 million market cap coin that goes to a billion yes your returns less but it's less likely for you to lose all your money very quickly but a $10 million market cap mcoin can go nowhere very quick and go down to one very quickly as well so I think people need to like self- select their lifestyle for what they want to achieve in trading if you're not if you do not have the lifestyle to sit in front of a computer screen all your waking hours have alerts on your phone and all this kind of stuff which is fine I don't do it I don't think that's fulfilling at least for me then don't do it and then change his training strategy but don't think you're GNA be you know I got on the subway my 45 minutes you know commute home I'm gonna trade some meme coins and I'm gonna quit my job next week like that ain't happening all right I want to read some of um the things that were listed I think by Murad that were listed as the utility of meme coins because I really um I'm finding this narrative that you're talking about very realistic very compelling very revelatory of the flip in the system that I can feel coming I knew eventually the youth would take over and this might be the way that they do it uh so here's the the meme coins offer a lot of utility slide I'm just going to read a few of these uh having fun loneliness reduction identity finding a similar crew hope provisioning friend ship being a part of a Cutting Edge culture a sense of belonging uh a guild in the MMO RPG that is crypto and on and on it goes that's that's less than half of them but uh it's a pretty interesting idea because that reads like a cultural phenomenon it does not read like a financial phenomenon uh and that feels right for the Youth today in terms of how socially connected they are how uh they feel rejected by the system how it's it is inevitable that they're going to inherit and thusly take over the system now do you think that this is going to um happen under Trump is he going to accelerate this is he going to block this uh what does that look like are meme coins gonna get crushed out of existence I think Trump is just a representative of the time so more like a I take more of like a a Harry Seldin sort of approach to things if you're familiar with the foundation series by azim off and and psycho history which like individual people don't have that much of an effect based on just the way that history is moving right people think that Trump is the one causing all these you know terrorists and changeing E American economic policy and all these sort of things and my my belief is that Trump is just a representation of something that would have happened anyways he might be very bombastic representation of that but the America that he's inheriting is because of things that happened 80 years ago or 50 years ago or decades in the making or what other countries have done were their particular set of policies decades ago up until the present Trump's just a very loud voice box of things that are already happening and so I think that what Mora describes has nothing to do with politics it's if we're going if we educated a whole generation on their smartphone and I know there's been pushbacks on that and you know we have pre-teens on social media obviously people are saying that's a really bad thing doesn't really matter they're connected in this way okay well are they going to express themselves financially in the same way that a boomer who didn't get a mobile phone until the you know late 1990s because they were so expensive um had to you know call their friends in a landline back in the day didn't have email aren't they going to express themselves financially different than the generation that's running things of course that's that's that's human nature if you're read is it uh how and STW from the fourth turning and sort of how generational cohorts move throughout history together you know every 80 years we have sort of a reset because you know the people die out there's a new generation they have a new technological software that governs how they how they act interact with each other and that manifests itself through the culture through financial services and and all these sorts of things and so I don't think Trump trump is irrelevant to this whole phenomenon of a social media connected generation whether you think it's good or bad who lives on their smartphones whose best friend might be you know a thousand kilometers away in the communicating chat rooms and twitch and video games and all these sorts of things they're not going out into the park and communicating that way or to restaurants or to a bar in the same ways that I may have or uh my mom or my dad may have right so I think this isn't a Republican Democrat or pick your left right political sort of sort of thing this is how have we brought up this generation gen Z how are they going to express themselves financially and now what do we have we have sort of this we have Boomers with all this wealth they need to sell it at some point does the youth want to buy what the boomers are selling that's the question yeah I think the aggressive answer that we're seeing from them is no they don't uh there's just too much Financial isolation they they have been Iced Out Of A system that uh through the mechanism that that you've written about a lot and you touched on briefly here of the way that money gets into the system how it sidesteps people in fact I think it's worth going into you wrote an article about how a dollar gets into the system when the FED is buying uh assets when they're injecting Capital into the system uh if you don't mind walk us through how does money get to the rich and make the rich richer and what would it need to look like for the money to get to the the pleaes uh as you loving call them so that people can understand a bad system when they see it yeah so quantitative easing I know we have these new terms for it but it's been around for a very very long time the first quantitative easing episode happened with the bank of England I don't know I forget the particular financial crisis it might have been the um collapse it was the collapse of the one of the major trading companies that got overextended a few Wars over in in the in the colonial period the bank of England stepped in and printed money to bail out this this company and that was some May 17th century something that but quantitative easing printing money to right size a financial ecosystem Is Not A New Concept we just have new terms for it but at the end of the day what is Fiat money Fiat money is created either by the government spending it to in existence or the banking system creating a loan which creates a corresponding deposit so with that framework in mind what happens when the Federal Reserve buys bonds it's qu quantitative EAS essentially what the FED does is they say hey JP Morgan and that was the example that I Ed I'm going to credit you a deposit on my ledger and I'm going to take this bond from you or one of your clients in the example I use Black Rock black rock sells a bond to the fed the FED uses JP Morgan as an intermediary and now JP Morgan has a corresponding deposit at the FED Black Rock now is a corresponding deposit at GP Morgan and the question is what does Black Rock do with this new money right if all the government is doing is printing money to buy Financial assets does that Inspire confidence that there is an underlying demand for money from the people the people who were with the most propensity to spend of course not we know that rich people are rich because they've satisfied their shorts in life they have a house they have a car they have food to eat they don't need to buy any more stuff what do they buy they buy Financial assets stocks bonds more real estate or they buy trophy assets nice watches expensive art all these types of things and so the example that I Illustrated in the essay was taking a dollar I've taken a safe Financial a Government Bond that pays an interest rate I've taken that from the financial from a rich person I've given them money what does the rich person do okay well I don't have the bond anymore that paid me two or 3% or whatever it is I need something else I go out and I buy stocks or from a company I do a stock buyback why would I increase production and take operational risk when my when my my base customer didn't get any wealthier because the government printed this money and bought these bonds and so what I go through to show is that quantitative easing creates no or very little real economic activity no one's going out and buying stuff what happens is you give rich people more funny money and what do they do they go and they buy more stuff that they think they want watches cars art if you give it to a company their end customer didn't get any wealthier so they're not hiring any more people because why would you hire more people when they don't have any more money you buy back your stock because that enriches your very wealthy shareholders better than you taking risk and trying to offer a new product and so quantitative easing doesn't increase the growth potential of an economy it just increases its indebtedness and so if you take a look in the United States for example 2008 until 2020 the the QE period the debt to GDP Rose from something like I want to say 30 or 40% to 128% or whatever it is but it's that sort of magnitude of you increased the debt and you did nothing for the underlying economy That's What I Call QE for rich people so uh QE for poor people means that okay well instead of giving this money to rich people to buy stuff how do we incentivize those who want to consume either you know the 99% of the economy or 90% of of the workforce to do that well the government needs to spend the money into stuff so in 2020 what happened right there was the co thing um and Trump was cautioned by his advisers maybe erroneously so that he needed to shut down the economy and so he's said well okay that's really bad he's a business person obviously shutting down the economy is not good people lose their jobs blah blah blah how do we get people not to revolt okay we're gonna hand them money so Trump did helicopter money probably the most redistributive Financial policy since Franklin deler Roosevelt in the 1930s with the New Deal in terms of what he did for people in America in terms of how printed money was handed out so the treasury mailed everybody a check as a lot of your listeners know they got the the stimulus check I know a few thousand do in the mail whatever it was and so it wasn't means tested if you had a job if you didn't have a job you got a check right and so what did you what did you do you went out and you bought stuff that you wanted cars washing machines you know got a fancy or haircut whatever right went on a nice foreign vacation okay mem coins so exactly mem coins Bitcoin if you had you if you had enough of that stuff but at the end of the day you gave money to people who needed to buy stuff and so theyre inre the consumption of goods what happened cars were sold out you went to you know I don't know it's seus still thing you went to the department store and you bought a washing machine oh [ __ ] the one I wanted isn't here because everybody else in the country now is able to upgrade their lifestyle and buying these things that they want oh guess what happened now that there's all this demand you actually saw loans to small businesses by non too big to fail Banks so the regional Banks they're they amount of loans they issued in the 2020 to 2022 period was above Trend because the businesses had customers who had money to spend and they out of product so they need to increase production and the bank was like of course I will lend you money to go and increase your production hire more people pay your staff more and so we saw all this economic growth because the FED printed money the treasury spent it into the economy and instead of it going to very very rich people in terms of the the money it went to everybody in America and they all decided I want to buy something whether it's a good or a service and obviously there wasn't enough capacity in the system the capacity expanded so you saw nominal GDP growth accelerate rapidly from 2020 to 2023 you saw debt to GDP actually decline by I think 10 or 15 percentage points so QE for poor people is inflationary as we know inflation went up however from the government's perspective it Del leverages their balance sheet and it allows everyone to participate in buying stuff except rather than just you know the top 1% of its people who own Financial assets who get richer you know trading stocks between themselves or you know expensive houses so these are the two systems and the way that a money is created the bank created money because it lent money to businesses to expand it gave you a personal loan because you had a solid job because employment was up because there people were buying more stuff right so QE for poor people gives the banks the ability to profitably issue more credit which increases the money supply it increases the velocity of money it increases growth gross amount of product so it's very good for the government the bad thing is obviously inflation which was experienced in in the United States and and other places around the world but these are the two ways that the FED can print money and the government can spend it or they can hand it out to rich people via stock BuyBacks and you know other other things and so that's what I sort of Illustrated in a very technical away with accounting t- charts and so back to where we orual discussion in the beginning why is there going to be 10 trillion dollars of credit created well Trump saw what happened when he did the stimulus checks and Biden followed with a stimulus check of his own it was successful the US government is overleveraged Scott bessent the new treasury secretary should he be confirmed understands this to a very deep degree the US government must do leverage if they're going to accomplish any of their goals this is the way to do it and it makes the banks profitable it makes everybody in the United States feel wealthier yes there is a bit of inflation everyone has a job businesses come back to build more production inside of America because there's their customer there willing to buy stuff and so that's why I believe this is going to be the government policy QE for poor people because they did they did QE for rich people and there's obviously you know bad effects to that and you have sort of social strife and this contian effect of you know the rich get richer the poor get poor all that sort of stuff happens and worst off the government balance sheet deteriorates which is not good so it's in the government's best interest to pursue this policy of encouraging Bank credit growth by spending this money and giving it to everyone versus just the top 1% so that's kind of in a very highlevel uh way what I was talking about with that example okay so uh government's going to print they're going to hand out stimy checks because that works to reduce the uh debt to GDP burden um now one thing that may have been just correlated so I don't know if they're gonna hand out stimulus checks in the way they did during covid but the other way they do this is they say okay there's a chip sack the green New Deal all this sort of industrial policy hey I'm gonna hand you some money build a chip factory hire Americans build a new car factory hire Americans build more natural gas oil hydrocarbon productive capacity higher Americans that's the that's going to be the way they do it this time it won't be hey everybody gets a$ th check in the mail that was very inflationary I don't think they're going to repeat that again got it got it that that's where I thought you were going and I was like whoa uh because that had some some knock on consequences okay that's really interesting I didn't know that about the um that when you're doing it the rich people way that it actually worsens your debt to GDP that is horrible and should be avoided at all costs uh so that's really interesting now I'm not a money printer guy but at least if there's a path using money printing to do what um Ray Delio calls the beautiful deleveraging uh it's got to be done so that's certainly better than open Warfare but it does beg a question of government control now you wrote another article very very impressive article as yours always are and in it you I'm not going to be able to get the the words perfect but it it's this idea that a regime like the incoming Trump Administration could use fiscal policy as a way to make the populace dependent on them or their financial success dependent on them such that they get reelected do you see that as a um a problem incoming I mean I think let let put let's not put a moralistic term on it it's neither good nor bad if you're a politician in a representative democracy like the United States you know in US Congress you're elected every two years and the Senate it's every six Trump's got a problem okay so we he won a landslide Victory his Edge in the house and the Senate I think it's one one person in the house and maybe two or three senators in the Senate and there's going to be another election in 2026 now everybody's human they said okay Biden bad because you know inflation I don't like my job okay there's this other guy over here Trump I'll vote for him you could reverse it if Trump was a president and cor his vice president was ready for re-election and he had the same economy that that Biden presided over and then you had Cala Harris as the Challenger they would have voted for Harris it doesn't matter the party is irrelevant I think people need to get out of this blue versus red Republican Democrat like if I'm the median voter Biden [ __ ] me okay I'm GNA go with Trump okay it's 2026 or 20 25 which congressman am I voting for did I all these problems that Trump city is going to solve why aren't they solved yet are they're not solved yet okay I'm going back to the Democrats that's what Trump has to counter and obviously Trump is not getting reelected but he wants JD Vance and all these other people that that are writing on his coattails to be in government positions long after he's gone and so he's got to be very uh conscious of like how do Republican congressmen and senators get re elected in 2026 which means I think that this policy that I've outlined which Scot Scott Besson and some of other other advisers have hinted at is the way to go Congress person could say I brought that factory back to my district look there's 10,000 new jobs created because of this bill that you know I voted on sponsored by whoever right so they need to be able to point back to things that happen immediately next one to eight 12 to 18 months in their district and so these are things that can be voted on very quickly that every elected representative wants to Champion whether they're Republican or Democrat if you are in office today and you're going to vote against a factory coming into your District you are not getting reelected and so it doesn't matter I think there will be a lot of bipartisan support for these sorts of policies because the voter doesn't care if you're Republic Republican or Democrat they care that they have a job and that their wages went up 10% or whatever and then you as a politician in power can claim that you are responsible whether that's true or not is irrelevant but for the median voter that's what they see and so that's why I think that this is the only way for them to really maintain the marginal lead that they have in the house and the Senate past 2026 they need to create jobs yesterday because they only have a year year and a half before we will start campaigning and Congress becomes completely dysfunctional because all they care about is you know what are the polls saying about my re-election chances and yeah maybe this radical policy that Trump or one of his advisers put through might benefit you know America in the long term but I need to get reelected in a year and there's a bunch of people who are going to be disenfranchised by this change change in uh travel of Direction therefore I can't vote for this even if they are Republican and so Trump's ability to govern is about 12 months yeah it is uh going to be very interesting to see now in that 12 months he is talking about uh all kinds of aggressive tariffs at a minimum as a negotiating tool what do you think is going to be the ramifications of trump and tariffs I think again it's a negotiating tool I subscribe to the Scott bessent sort of quips about okay if you start at 60% maybe it goes to 5% right just standard business negotiation or yeah I'll slap 100% tariff on you over the next four years I'll slowly increase the temperature of the water as gets close to Boiling do do we want to make a deal here right I think it's a negotiating tactic because at the end of the day high tariffs in the short run can be NE very negative for growth in in America because if you think about America it's a financialized economy most of the companies in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 are international companies that make the majority of their revenue outside of the United States and so if you start slapping tariffs on all you know especially China all these countries then China goes oh okay you want a 25% tariff well actually no iPhones are sold in my country anymore go [ __ ] yourself Apple there goes the everyone's e you know magnificent 7 and NASDAQ 100 qqs and S&P 500 position Apple's down 30% how do you like those capital gains taxes in California ain't none to go around right and so that's this is an inter interlocked economy I think terorists are a threat I think we can see that they're 30 is inviting Xin ping to come to inauguration Trump is inviting sh the president of China to the inauguration this is negotiation he started out a position of extreme maximalism and he'll dial it back to get the things that him and his team want to get and so that's where I come down on on the tff issue and look if they go you know go ham on ter it's gonna be so NE negative for growth you can basically assure a Democrat House and Senate in 2026 and I think they know that yeah it's going to be a wild ride I uh we certainly have a front row seat to it um so speaking of a front row seat to all of the changes that are happening in the financial markets talk to me about stable coins so the idea that basically money is bifurcated into two things it's an idea that I heard first from saor at least put like this I think it's really insightful and that is you've got money as currency and money as capital and capital flows obviously to sailor it all boils down to bitcoin uh anybody that wants their uh Capital preserved in the most efficient way possible is going to be going into Bitcoin but Capital flow into currency is not going to be going into Bitcoin Bitcoin is just not optimized for that and so now you start getting into stable coins not being controlled by uh the government what do you think is going to happen to stable coins is this going to be do we need a regulatory environment that invit stable coins into the US uh will the government try to use that as a moment to slide in cbdcs what what is this going to play out as so first and foremost stable coins and you know the most successful one is tether usdt is essentially a a dollar credit that moves on a blockchain and tether has bank accounts and holds treasuries in the tune of like 130 billion US dollar now there's other ways to do stable coins I'm a big investor in one called Athena but doesn't really gerain of this conversation they're very useful outside of the West let's put it that way right if you are an American viewer of this program you probably have a bank account what it like zel and cash app and all these sorts of things right it's it's decently easy to pay somebody in the United States you go to Western Europe they have banks that work now you go to where I live and spend most of my time which is the other parts of the world and some banking systems work Singapore Hong Kong some non-existent or completely clunky for a tourist I spend a lot of time in Argentina right very difficult you know the first time I went to Argentina I think dollar peso was at 30 or 50 uh last year when I went it was at a thousand right and okay and and then the funny thing is the bank will only let you the bank hasn't adjusted the amount of cash that you can pull out of the ATM so now what was like a few hundred maximum you can pull out the ATM equivalent is now like 30 bucks and they charge you $10 fee on top to to move to take your money out right so it's [ __ ] up and as a tourist you're like well how am I going to pay these bills things have obviously not stayed that cheap stuff costs money so I use stable coins they're easy I can pay my ski instructor I can pay my driver I can pay the restaurant Bill and everyone has got a phone everyone has an internet and we can transact this dollar thing on a blockchain because you know the dollar is still the res deserve currency of the world it's the most used currency and you know back to gresham's law I spend bad money I spend Fiat I save good money I sa Bitcoin so I don't want to spend Bitcoin when I'm paying people or going to a restaurant I want to spend dollars and this is allows me to use the beauty of decentralized finance and these blockchains to bypass a banking system that wouldn't allow me or take a very long time for me to move money from where I have it to where I am so that's the beauty of stable coins I don't think they're that useful in in the west and if you take a look at where tether has been very successful it's been an emerging economies especially in sort of like Asia and Latin America and their Chief competitor in sort of the dollars in a bank account with a credit on the blockchain is circle which is very tied in with coinbase and yes they are successful but they're nowhere near as successful as tether because they're concentrating on a market that doesn't need their product right Americans and Western Europeans Don't Need a Dollar stable coin their stuff kind of works whereas the rest of the world [ __ ] does not work and this is a leapfrogging improvement over how you can move a stable currency in their mind and pay for goods and services in a way to bypasses the the banking system and so I think stable coins are great it's a greata use case of the technology has a product Market fit and yeah I'm I don't on the regulatory front I mean they work I don't know if you need any to have any more things you know present to make them work any better because they're used by people all around the world to solve real world problems now an idea that I've heard that I think is really interesting is that Bitcoin is not great for us treasuries because people are not going to be storing their money in treasuries if they can get their money stored into something like Bitcoin but stable coins are great for dollar dominance because so many of them are backed by US security so uh sorry us treasuries do you think that stable coins are good for the dollar like does this help absolutely I mean tether is the top 20 holder of us treasuries uh the the fact the notion that they're not regulated is pure Hocus Pocus tether complies with you know kyc AML all all that stuff they give information to Federal US Federal authorities on whatever people they want to get information on right so if you if you're like oh I'm going to avoid you know I'm I'm not being seen in the financial system by using tether you're an idiot that they're completely their ability they can freeze your wallet they can report you to financial authorities so like don't think that using tether is somehow allowing you to do some sort of illicit Financial activities that's that's just pure uh comedy in my view so at the end of the day right this is a dollar it might not be the dollar that benefits Jamie Diamond or you know David Solomon at GB Morgan or Goldman Sachs but it benefits the Dollar's role as the global Reserve currency you know the US Treasury and the government in and of itself so why are C coins been demonized so much because the people who run the dollar for the government the large Money Center Banks like GP Morgan City Wells Fargo B of America don't own tether and tether is the most profitable financial services company in the world per employee something I forgot the number like $60 million per per employer something crazy uh whatever it is their revenue so their net income per employee and so that's why the banks hate them the US government should didn't have a view either way if the dollar is getting used whether is JP Morgan making the money or you know the tether owners making the money as long as at the dollar I should be cool with it and you're starting to see that change in the most recent quarterly refunding Announcement by the US Treasury they had a supplement presentation all about stable coins and about how stable coins especially like tether likee stable coins are accumulating us short-term us treasuries and you know the tone of the article was they're not bad things we should learn to live with them uh they're still expanding the use and the role of the dollar uh and so I think there's been a bit of a change in term of the mindset of okay well who cares if Jamie Diamond's not making money on this as long as me the government my currency is being used around the world it's good for me yeah that this one strikes me as a no-brainer if you can get the digital stable coin backed by a US dollar product then you're back in the position of being able to export your uh inflation around the world even more even harder now look I'm an anti-inflation guy but I'm saying if you've got the system and that's how it's working and you've got people out there who would be way better off with our level of inflation than their own Hometown like think about Argentina 5 years ago uh or Zimbabwe they would be killing to have access to uh USD backed stable coin um great for us great for them so yeah this one seems like I I'd be very shocked if our own government continues to stand in the way Bitcoin which actually seems to be getting better adoption uh strikes me as I would get why they were anti- that which speaking of by the way Trump being um nudged certainly by Michael sailor if nobody else to build a strategic Bitcoin Reserve what do you think about that wise gonna happen not gonna happen I don't think it's gonna happen but I think the discussion of it is very instructive to how I believe Trump and especi and well Scott bessent will be the one doing it will very rapidly devalue the dollar so again to bring jobs home to the United States to make a company on the margin want to locate a productive facility in United States the cost of doing business globally the dollar is too strong and so how does the US devalue very quickly without having to do a lot of these bilateral currency negotiations so many older listeners who are American or Western European will be familiar with in the louv core Plaza core that happened in the 1980s which are very unilateral discussions the treasury secretary at the time said we are doing this and you know Japan you will allow your currency to appreciate and Germany you will do this and France you will do that now I don't think the US has that sort of Gravitas and Military and economic position to sort of dictate to all these other countries where there exchanger is going to be maybe they will but it takes time they again Trump has 12 months he needs to get something done yesterday uh and so how do I devalue the dollar quickly well what do the us have and more so than any other country in the world supposedly if you believe the figures the United States has least a Fed in the treasury have the most amount of gold of any other Sovereign Nation even China again if you believe the the world Gold console figures um I've done the math because I'm writing about this right now us is about 8,100 tons of gold that are supposedly stored in Fort Knox and because of how the accounting has transpired the the uh US Treasury sorry the FED holds gold at $422 per ounce on its balance sheet that was a level I think that the last level I think it was Gerald Ford or Nixon devalued a dollar to that level in the 1970s that's where they hold gold on the balance sheet right so the theory goes and this is not something I came up with this has been talked about by very senior and seasoned um you know financial markets analyst Scott Besson is absolutely aware of of how this works and to the point about Bitcoin strategic Reserve if you if you read the bill by Senator Lumis she explicitly States okay how do I pay for this Bitcoin I want to buy well I used the gold I revaluate a different level and I spend the money and I'll describe how that's done in a second so everyone's kind of talking about the same thing we United States has all this gold it's held at an artificially low price and so on an on an accounting basis the US Treasury unilaterally can decide what the value of gold is on the fed's balance sheet so Scott Besson wakes up on January 21st and he say okay I need to devalue the Dollar by a lot okay I'm going to say that gold is now worth $5,000 an ounce on my balance sheet now for every think about $3,800 of revaluation of gold on the balance sheet creates a uh a Deb a credit in the treasury general account at the FED of $1 trillion so tell me the amount of spending that you want to have without having to go to Congress and I'll tell you the gold price and that is what the treasury can do without input from anyone else because the value of gold on the fed's balance sheet is under the complete purview of the Secretary of the Treasury and so what happens the US says okay well the gold is now I don't know let got $10,000 an ounce and so now I've created a few trillion dollars of dollars that I can spend on whatever it is that Trump and his team want to to spend money on so what have I done I've T the amount of gold hasn't changed but I've created a bunch of more dollars in an accounting fashion and I'm spending them into the global economy so I've increased the amount of dollars in the world gold pric is the same the gold quantity is the same therefore I've devalued the dollar now versus every other country in the world now the dollar is much weaker through this gold channel it's weaker than the Yuan it's weaker than the Yen it's weaker than the Euro those are the three you know China Japan Germany three largest exporting countries so if I am a manufacturer and now you know the three major places where I would have located a facility it's way more expensive to do so to export to the world I guess I got to come to America and deal with Trump and his team because the dollar has now been devalued and guess what Bessa didn't have have to call a single foreign Finance secretary Minister and discuss with them what he's going to do or get them to agree it happens automatically because now the US government says gold is worth you know five 10,000 $15,000 an ounce how high Could It Go who knows uh Luke groman another financial analyst he has a chart I don't know where it is uh and it's the percentage of gold as a the amount of gold that's a percentage of the amount of liabilities of the FED in the 1980s versus today and so they went back to where gold was as a percentage of the overall liability base as gold as the asset liabilities are the amount of dollars in in in existence you would do about a 14x rise in Gold so that's like $40,000 an ounce in Gold do I think that's GNA happen I don't know who knows probably not but that's just instructive of the of where we're going from 2600 $2700 an ounce to 51 15 $20,000 an ounce and now with these trillions of dollars okay if Trump really believes in Bitcoin and Bitcoin is the new hardest currency and he wants to set up the United States to have you know the best balance sheet of any Sovereign Nation then yes he can use some of those trillions of dollars and go in the market and buy gold but it could also use it as tax breaks or you know cheaper health care or whatever it is they decide to do but the best point the best part is it happens immediately you don't need Congressional approval your boys who are in charge of these departments can do this stuff unilaterally without talking any foreign counterparts or anyone in the Deep State who would sort of oppose oppose what they're doing so that's why this talk about strategic Bitcoin Reserve is nice but what you really should be talking about is how and I this is the theory that I have and you know I have my portfolio geared to it there will be a massive devaluation of the dollar versus gold in the first half 2025 okay and as an individual if that happens um do I similarly benefit from that does gold as it's tra to so if you don't there's no there's no impact the dollar is weakened okay but it wasn't like they did some crazy tariff or something else to to get it there Visa another country it's an accounting Thing versus gold so if you own gold great you've you've made you've made a gain in Fiat in terms if you don't ow gold uh you know sorry out of lucky you didn't participate but it's not like your life has changed in any way shape or form you know right right but way that you're talking about it0 pound be0 pound beef right right right so beef priced in dollars no change but I do hold gold so uh if this were to happen then that it's not just some magic trick on their balance sheet this actually does impact the world it would impact uh the amount of dollars I have in Gold correct got it very interesting uh would if they do this will they just borrow against the gold that they have or will they actually sell the gold to create the dollar no there's there's no that's the beauty of it there's nothing it's literally because of how the economics work the the accounting flows in the government Gold's at $42 an ounce now now obviously it's about $2,700 in the free free market so just going to where the spot price of gold is that gets the government I think about $700 billion do of a credit so now the treasury has an account at the Federal Reserve called the the treasury general account that's where government spending occurs so when you pay the government salaries or they hand out your you know social security check or whatever it comes from the fed's account the the treasur account the FED then it goes to the banking system like GP Morgan and you know those sorts of banks that's how it flows so number one the US government doesn't need to sell any gold all that says is I was saying gold is worth $42 an ounce I now say it's worth x x could be 5,000 10,000 $15,000 in ounce and because I've now created all these dollars accounting basis because now I have this B massive credit with the FED I've just created a bunch of dollars and I can spend them on whatever I want to spend them on so I've just created all these dollars out of thin air so that's why this is beautiful because it requires no input from anyone else other than Scott Besson at the treasury who does what Trump says I need weaker doll I need businesses coming back to America he says gotcha buddy let me just do this real quick and now the dollar is the weakest currency out of all of our trading compet um competitors and so now companies on the margin are going to want to put their Factory here and Export either sell stuff in America or export it around the world from America and so when they say that they're weakening the dollar they specifically mean against gold is The Benchmark yes and so by transitive properties it'll weaken against the UI the Euro and the Yen because they have not moved their Peg well there's not not not that Peg I've just created s use the wrong word they they also have uh a an amount that they say uh an ounce of gold is this many you on and they're not going to create more money based on whatever it is they what they think the price of gold should be because they don't have the reserve currency so right China could do the same thing they okay well we think Go's worth 100 million Yuan an ounce we have all this Yuan and we can go spend it great but you're not you don't have an inbuilt demand for your currency as much as you're trying um to do more trade bilaterally in your own currency great but at the end of the day dollar is still what 60 something percent of world trade or 70% whatever it is so they have that have that de demand that demand for the currency so the US can devalue more than any other country without suffering hyperinflation and if you think about the major trading partners of the US Germany Japan China none of them are self-sufficient in hydrocarbons the US can be it wants to be none of them are self-sufficient in food the US can be if it wants to be so the us can go [ __ ] nuts with very hyperinflationary policies with very inflationary policies that would be hyperinflationary in China Japan and Germany they cannot do what the US can do because they don't have the same natural blessings as this fictional area we call America has very fair uh okay talk to me about Bitcoin security do you have any concerns Google Willow announcement comes out I talked to sailor about it he's not worried in the slightest almost like why are you bothering me with this question kind of energy um what do you think is is there so again I am not I'm not a cryptographer the little bit that I've read about this from people who way smarter than me and who know this stuff is that the type of calculations that Google Willow can do is not is not translated into being able to break shot 256 which is the encryption algorithm of of Bitcoin and so until that happens then we don't have anything to worry about obviously you can always up in change things within the network this has been a perennial concern of oh if quantum Computing therefore Bitcoin is broken kind of thing and I am not qualified to sit here and give all the retorts to that but I think Andreas Antonopoulos and some of very smart people who understand this issue very deeply have very easily debunked that sort of line of thinking so Google Willow is great we're upgrading our ability to do calculations um in a Quantum way is that affect the Bitcoin encryption algorithm no love it Arthur this has been wonderful where can people follow along with you so on X crypto haaz uh substack crypto Haze as well and then come to the various conferences around the world where I speak I love man well enjoy this alt season I'm sure it is going to be a lot of fun and everybody at home if you haven't already be sure to subscribe and until next time my friends be legendary take care peace if you like this conversation check out this episode to learn more at the time of recording Bitcoin is over 100k and has been for quite a while at this point so I think the question of is Bitcoin real is dead uh but now the question becomes how does Bitcoin go from where we're at at a little over 100k to the 13 million