Kind: captions
Language: en
I'm Tom Bilu and today is Tuesday
October 29th and this is a special 2024
election episode of impact Theory this
week we're doing something very
different with the election right around
the corner I wanted to do something
really special and cut through the noise
so we're bringing in some of the
sharpest Minds from both sides of the
aisle to answer two very simple
questions in addition to the normal
interviews that we do what values and
beliefs are driving their voting choices
and why do they think you should vote
the same way each guest is going to
break down their reasoning and make
their case now while I've got my own
views the goal here is very simple to
help you guys think for yourselves using
the same first principles that all of us
should be relying on no BS just straight
talk now without further Ado I bring you
Steph
bonell Steven bonell welcome back to the
show Tom thank you for having me can you
pronounce your last name again bill youu
billu I typed your last name incorrectly
so many times trying to not good for
Branding I'm very disappointed you and
me both if only my parents had had
better foresight uh we'd be in great
shape the good news is that I can almost
always get my name as my username
because there are precious few people uh
with the last name so yeah not not easy
to spell but far easier to pronounce
thankfully that's good so all right let
us uh get into something that I am dying
to ask you so if you were trying to
advise somebody in the 2028 election so
you don't know who the candidates are
going to be what values and beliefs
would you want them to hold in their
mind as they make a decision on who to
vote for this is what I would hope would
happen I would hope that you would
consider that there are these core
foundational ideas that make our country
the coolest country on the planet um in
so far as in the United States you can I
think you can be the best version of
yourself here better than any other
country in the world we have our faults
but what we do well we do better than
anybody else there's a reason why that
is the case there's there's these core
American values that have endured
through time and that when you go to
vote on a candidate in 2028 you're
thinking in your mind what are those
core values that make America really
cool and and unique and and put us ahead
of everybody else and who who align with
that that's like before you even
consider a candidate they have to be
within that box can you name those
values
so I think that having a country that is
built on um core principles of
liberalism and capitalism are like some
of the most important things that we do
as Americans so when I say liberalism I
mean an understanding that we have a
free press that can publish you know
take down articles of politicians and
celebrities alike and that they enjoy a
broad amount of Protections in doing so
um free speech and that we have no hate
speech laws in in the United States if I
want to say uh racial slur if I want to
be incredibly disgusting or mean if I
want to march in a Nazi uniform or a
Marxist uniform or whatever um that I
have the right to do that in America um
another thing is that we have a broad
base of people here and we integrate
people better than any other country in
the world we have so many different
types of people here that all work
together that build things that create
an environment such that anybody from
the world can go to places like LA or
New York City or Seattle or even like
Austin or Miami or any of these huge
places there's just so many different
types of people we do so well um the uh
free enterprise the idea that you know
if you have a really good idea and you
want to start a business you can do that
here um there's a reason why you know
Elon Musk came to the United States to
do Tesla and SpaceX there's a reason why
Amazon and Bezos are here in the US
there's a reason why Zuckerberg's here
there's a reason why you know Henry Ford
revolutionized the automobile industry
and why the United States the larger
exporter of energy in the world like
these are all like things that are yeah
part of the American project I'm going
on for a while for this but yeah go
yeah so obviously this has real world
implications so um getting if there are
more I would certainly love to hear them
but if those are the big ones uh because
obviously now I'm going to bring it back
so you and I
um we literally every value that you
just laid out we share to to a word but
yet I think we're thinking about this
moment differently and so the question
becomes is one of us insincere that's
certainly a possibility or are we
looking at the same thing and coming
away with something different and so now
as you bring this back into this actual
election how are you mapping it on to
the candidates and maybe the more
interesting places um given I don't
think anybody is going to be surprised
so you're uh very much in the Kamala
Harris camp and do you think that
somebody could sincerely vote for Donald
Trump if they your values or at that
point is it it's some delusional thing
that either they have not yet mapped for
themselves so they're blind to something
in their own belief system uh or it's
kayfabe they're faking it they're saying
that they believe in those values but in
reality they believe in something else
um I draw a huge distinction between the
media the content creators um the people
that are disseminating the message
versus the individual citizenry um I
think those are two very different
groups of people I do believe I want to
believe that the citizens are genuine
because it would just be exhausting to
lie all the time and I I don't know why
people do that like I think that
individuals are genuinely um sincere my
mom is a hardcore ride or die Trump
supporter as as my dad I think they're
pretty sincere I've known them my whole
life um the media pundits um and when I
say media I'm heavily including and
almost focusing on alternative media
here I think are incredibly insincere
and I think they are a cancerous rot
that is destroying this country or maybe
have already destroyed it really
possibly okay so for you the stakes are
legit like this is existential yeah but
I mean people say that every election so
what is that I mean if you sincerely
believe it so as somebody who is now
pressing 50 I'm at this weird Crossroad
of does the way that I feel now relate
more to the specific moment we're living
in or do all people that hit 48 suddenly
start feeling the way that I feel and I
honestly have no idea I don't know that
I can tease those out all I can say is
it feels like this moment is
legitimately different um but anyway we
only get one go round so it's tough to
know yeah okay so uh it is possible that
the alternative media may have already
ruined and I think I filled in the blank
there have already ruined the country or
the Democracy what exactly are you
worried that they may have already
ruined so uh authoritarian or autocratic
regimes that have a single point of
power single party single leadership
rulership structure um don't really need
an informed public they just need to
know themselves what's going on so
things like disinformation or people
just blatantly you know publishing lies
doesn't really impact those regimes as
much a democracy requires a somewhat
informed public to be making decisions
about what's going on and disinformation
destroys societies like that such that
it makes them untenable that if we
thought that a nuclear bomb exploding in
New York City was going to fix all of
our problems and 80% of the public
thought that they would vote on that and
then we would blow up New York City and
it's like oh well shoot I guess that
wasn't good in an autocratic regime the
leaders would say well this is obviously
done we're not going to do it we don't
care what the public wants so I think
that we exist at a point in time due to
a Confluence of things um social media
is a huge one um foreign pressure is one
um the general like populist rise in
this country and really across all the
Western world is one but these are
things that are contributing to a media
environment where we are more than ever
before living in totally separate
realities okay so uh I'm going to infer
some things from that but I want to make
sure that I'm inferring the correct
things and not putting words in your
mouth so uh the given the nature of our
media landscape
disinformation is the thing that causes
us to have very different factual
universes and given that you believe the
average citizen forget the pundits but
average citizens are being sincere but
that sincerity that that factual
interpretation of the world is being so
inappropriately colored by media sources
that were creating a wildly Divergent
world where they're just around it two
very separate worldviews that both sides
think are factually correct but we can
actually track this back to
disinformation yeah do you did you ever
play Metal Gear Solid did I what solid
did you ever play Metal Gear Solid video
G yes oh I didn't expect that to come up
yes and Metal Gear Solid one oh it's the
only one I haven't played my God
the answer is just no how do you start
at two okay well two is kind of a
reaction a lot of way of one but in met
solid one snake has to um Metal Gear is
going to be active and it can go a nuke
people and nobody knows where the nukes
are coming from and the only way to
deactivate it is to reenter the
activation codes so snake goes through
uh the Bas Shadow Moses to figure out
what the codes are and then he sneaks in
and then he goes to put the codes in
again to deactivate it but of course
it's a metal grella game so big plot
twist it wasn't activated and now he's
activated it right so I feel like this
is the world we live in where I don't
think snake wanted to make metal gear
active but because he has so much bad
information he ends up activating it and
I think the same is true for a lot of
Americans perceptions of things like uh
health care or immigration or foreign
policy to where I don't want to believe
that half this country is like full of
hateful evil people they just genuinely
believe these things are you know really
bad at destroying the country like
somebody maybe they there are people
that really do think that um there were
these top down plans to steal the
election or that Haitians were eating
dogs in Springfield or that immigrants
are stealing jobs and destroying the
country and if you really do think that
then I understand why you're like we
need to put a stop on all this
of course it makes sense yeah okay
so given that you have to have an
informed public to have a
democracy and that our current landscape
is creating an environment where people
are being misled what is the solution um
there have to be like very heavy-handed
Solutions I don't know what those look
like exactly um the the ideal solution
is a culture change and that's almost
impossible that you just have like the
whole C like oh we need to change the
way to do this because the incentives
aren't right for it um the second thing
would be uh corporate change and I would
argue that Elon Musk is probably doing
more damage to the world right now than
any other individual actor uh so that's
probably not going to do anything um
because he's not going to change the way
that X is working right now because he's
obviously a full-on uh supporter for a
single candidate and then the Third Way
would be some sort of a government
legislation where there are different
like laws passed some of which I can
think of my head that I would be in
favor of um like if you're a media
alternative media whatever on you know
any kind of American hosted media
platform uh you have to disclose like
your nationality I think that that would
be I think that's important I think we
should know that if you're in the United
States um yeah and possibly even like
income sources too I think that if
you're giving media in the United States
people have a right to know if you're
being funded by somebody internationally
or whatever I am so the goal there is
you believe that you can start to build
a map of their intentions based on how
they're get paid and to whom they owe
National Allegiance potentially it's
just more information I think um the the
real problem here is and there's a
reason why none of this is ever going to
happen the real problem is that I think
that humans fundamentally misunderstand
what our brains are designed for and how
humans perceive information in a given
uh information saturated environment
people like you hear people say um
hopefully you haven't said these things
before May are we can fight about it
people say oh the solution to these
problem we just need more free speech
more speech more speech um but if you
step outside of this weird ideological
jerkoff bubble of like oh social media
and you go in any other environment
you'll never ever ever ever ever get
that advice from anybody ever nobody
will tell you like this book I don't
understand this is so confusing oh read
a hundred more books they like no no no
no you need a good teacher you need a
good Mentor you need a good author you
need a good set of friends you need to
not just like a million things and then
you'll figure it out but when it comes
to freedom of speech for some reason
everybody thinks like oh no if we just
have you know instead of 100 people
saying misinformation 5 million people
all shouting and screaming the true
stuff will rise to the top but it is
assumes that one people want to know
what's necessarily true which is not
true and two that there are good
incentives for creating information that
is necessarily true which is also not
true I think that those two things are
things that 98% of people would disagree
with me on and as long as you disagree
with me on that you'll never agree with
anything else I say about it so okay uh
it's very interesting so I have a I
think a fundamentally different approach
to why people ought to debate um and to
me the reason I like people debating is
I I'm not even though I am trying to be
persuasive I don't consider myself a
debater but when I speak I'm trying to
be persuasive but I'm not necessarily
sure that I want to persuade people so
my goal in any interaction is to find
out if there's something that has
utility and what the other person is
saying um so to me it doesn't matter
whether you and I ever come to an
agreement I want to find out okay you if
if you have a sincere worldview I want
to know what it is so I can treat you
essentially like like an AI that I can
build a mental model of you and how you
would look at a problem so I can see
that problem from your angle and I'm
going to triangulate on something with a
bunch of different viewpoints to then
say okay what do I think has most
utility uh I'll plant a very quick flag
I'll try not to bog the conversation
down in this but I think all of this
every um word out of my mouth every word
out of anybody's mouth ought to be
driving towards something a known
destination that they want to get to
when I'm talking to an entrepreneur I
call it k y know your goal you have to
know your goal where you trying to end
up everything is going to be benchmarked
against that uh in fact if I had to say
the biggest problem I have with the
political um setup that we have now is
people will state a goal as like a
campaign slogan but they're never going
to Benchmark against it and see whether
they actually made progress so you're
just sort of steering blindly so anyway
uh my goal would be to figure out ideas
that have high utility and leading me
towards my goal which is human
flourishing we'll set it aside for now
because it doesn't yet I think matter um
whether that's the right goal but to
understand how I will structure a
conversation or navigate it is all based
on that I'm trying to find a thing that
has high utility um okay so you've gone
into something that I call the dumb
voter problem so I think everybody is
trying to figure out how do we deal with
dumb voters because I think you trust
yourself to navigate the world of all
the misinformation disinformation yes MH
okay uh I certainly trust myself to
navigate that but there are obviously
from where I'm standing people that will
not be able to navigate that and there
the reason people attempt to manipulate
people is because manipulation works so
well uh and it can work on really smart
people that don't have time to pay
attention and so they're just existing
at the headline level uh it can work
because somebody just does not have the
intellectual capacity to sort through
all of that um so I find that by
simplifying the question down to what do
you do about dumb voters you can sort of
get to where what somebody's stances so
um how do we in your world deal with
dumb voters who are not ever going to be
able to accurately identify what is true
so yeah I don't like the term dumb
voters because I think that most people
this is something I've changed pretty
radically on in the past couple years I
think that people are actually pretty
smart I think that something just
happens politically or socially there's
another mechanism at play that is
turning the key and shutting somebody's
brain off when it comes to evaluating
things uh that you have a a bigger
emotional stake in one of the best
real-time examples I have ever seen in
my life of this happening is a
conversation that I saw of Joe Rogan
having with Matt Walsh where Joe Rogan
in a very epistemically sound way points
out why Flat Earth is just kind of a
ridiculous idea so many people around
the world would be bought into it what's
even the point of this all the academic
institutions all the other countries
even our enemies are like aligned with
like he gives a perfect reason but yeah
these are really good attacks against
like Flat Earth from like a conceptual
standpoint like it just doesn't it
wouldn't even make any sense and Matt
Walsh agrees and Matt Walsh's like yeah
and like you know like those moonlanding
guys too and then all of a sudden Joe
Rogan's brain shuts off and he's like
well oh hold on I don't know about the
moonlanding it's like wait you just gave
a perfectly good walkthrough for why
Flat Earth was ridiculous it all applies
to the moonlanding but then his brain
switches something happens but he's not
becoming stupid it's not dumb there's a
mechanism at play that is inhibiting his
ability to apply the same rational
thought process I think so I totally
agree with that um that while also
important I think allows for a layer of
obfuscation what I want to get to is can
we agree that there are some people who
don't that they do not have the
intellectual horsepower to sus all this
out possibly but I would say those
people are maybe like if I had to guess
like less than 10% great love that so
some number less than 10% what about
them um uh I guess it's your the hus is
on you as a politician to find a way to
appeal to those people because if your
country needs those people to function
and operate then you have to find a way
to get them to vote for you I think and
if they vote in the quote unquote wrong
way are you willing to accept that
that's just the reality of the world we
live in um probably because there's
going to be some percentage of people
that are just yeah but I mean ideally
you have big enough majorities and the
other percentages that and maybe part of
it is like throwing those people a bone
or something together to vote your away
I guess we have to look at an
application what those would look like
but yeah I mean you have to bring
everybody along the pro the problem
democratically is that when you start
trying to draw boxes around who should
or shouldn't be able to vote you've like
entered into the 50 million Pandora's
boxes of who's allowed and who's not
allowed and it's very hard to sort that
out yeah yeah that that is exactly my
point this is why I always want to get
people's answer to what do you do about
dumb voters my thing is I don't want
anybody deciding whether I'm one of the
dumb voters or not and since I'm
perfectly willing to accept that there
may be times where I'm in the dumb voter
category I want to make sure that I am
given the ability to look at all the
available information out there
including uh flat earthers including
whatever whatever um going back to one
of the earlier things you said is we
have the ability to wear the uh Marxist
outfit the Nazi outfit to talk hey I
believe that the Earth is flat I don't
want anybody to get to decide what is
true in a preemptive strike kind of way
where this speech is now not available
because some people are not going to be
able to parse through that data and so
for me that's where like I am prepared
to live in a world where things very
much do not go the way that I think that
they should because I am so terrified of
people being able to say top down to
protect you to protect you from dumb
people whatever of course they're not
going to say dumb but to protect you
we're going to make sure that we get rid
of misinformation disinformation Mal
information because it ends up being bad
so but it feels like like there's while
you agree with it at the extreme you
said there are heavy-handed things that
you would want to do because
misinformation could be potentially
destroying our society yeah absolutely
but that's different than keeping people
from voting I would say right right
conceptually it maps on to like well who
identifies a dumb voter could be similar
to who identifies misinformation
potentially but the issue right now is
that the majority of the people in the
United States of America that carry
forward that really strict Free Speech
Banner um do so maliciously
um they do it as a as a Cancer and they
sneak in as a parasite to pretend that
freedom of speech is what they really
want but what they really want is just
the ability to lie with impunity and to
do it for huge sums of cash and that is
right now what is happening it's not a
it's not becoming a problem it's not
going to become a problem it is a
problem and it has been a problem and
it's such that even if we were too
heavy-handed in a u media censorship
environment that would be preferable to
where we are right now because the area
that we're at right now is deplorable
and there are too many people um the
Candace Owens the Tim pools the Joe r an
the um the the Robert Malone The Lex
Freedman these people who are you know
saying like oh we just want like all
these people to come and have
conversations they're not there to have
conversation they're there to lie with
impunity and that's why they can never
back up any of the things they say they
have no accountability they've got
horrible track records they're shown
time and time and time again to be
incorrect on a large number of things
but they'll point to like one or two
conspiracies that they happen to be
correct about and then they'll say well
freedom of speech it's like a guy who
you know has the right to drive a car he
got his driver's license and he's been
in 15 car accidents he's like well you
know it's a I you know I can drive I
have my license or whatever uh despite
the fact that when your parents give you
you know your first set of keys you know
hey this is a you know this might be a
new privilege but with it comes a lot of
responsibility and right now everybody
wants the privilege of freedom of speech
with none of the responsibility of it
which is disgusting to me okay so walk
me through what uh what is the
responsibility of free speech like what
is the thing you have to do or whatever
to earn earn I don't want to put that
word in your mouth sure I mean like you
if you are working in media
disseminating information to people you
should be putting in the bare minimum
level of research or understanding into
the topics that you are talking about
you cannot be repeating things
uncritically that you find in social
media that are just blatantly and
obviously false and if you are there has
to be some kind of accountability
tracking for
it okay and uh accountability tracking
like would you propose that there's
actually a score like hey you've missed
up this many times uh but you got these
things right so your Blended score is0 B
minus maybe something if but the problem
with um where we're at right now with
the media environment is for I'll say
like on the conservative side any type
of scorekeeper or fact tracker is
inherently seen as biased so that
immediately fails with that with half
the country right
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to see where we disagree my thing will
be anytime that you're going to put that
sort of check on uh the system you're
saying somebody actually is able to view
the world objectively correct and is
isn't caught in a frame of reference so
my view on the world is that quite
literally
nobody lives in an objectively true
world we are all doing our best to
approximate the truth and that is why
there's always these gaps because um I
think while it is not impossible for
humans to get to ground truth ground
truth is physics right so so once you
understand a thing it unlocks abilities
it unlocks um GPS was unlocked because
we got past Newtonian physics which felt
like it was an objectively true version
of reality only to find out that it's
not and now physicists are saying even
einsteinian physics is not objectively
true that it's a good approximation it's
better it gave us GPS but it unlocked
the power of the the atom but there's
something Beyond it that we don't yet
understand and so once I get to that and
I say objective reality is the number of
photons that are reflecting off of you
and landing on my eye it's a big math
equation in light spectrum uh but I
don't interface with the world like that
I interface basically like through a
guey right so I am already dealing with
rules of thumb approximation narrative
all of that and so for me it becomes a
question of can anyone actually be
trusted to say you're the person that
knows what is objectively true and
therefore since you're uni uniquely
maybe not solely but uniquely able to
determine what is true you can now give
people a score whatever and begin to
shut down the people that get a low
score that's what scares me that when it
meets reality it's just never going to
hold up so here's my issue with this
framing I don't disagree with you
conceptually it doesn't have anything to
do with the world that we live in right
now the what what we're what we're doing
is I've drawn a I've drawn a square in
front of you okay and there might be two
people who are intently looking at that
square okay with no other congruent line
dra it and they're TR to argue whether
they think it's a square or a rectangle
okay because one guy is saying I think
it might be a little bit longer okay and
what you're saying is I don't want
somebody to come in and say this answer
is wrong okay but that's not the world
that we have right now right now we have
that shape and there are two people
arguing whether it's a square or a
rectangle and then a 5,000 other people
are arguing that that is actually uh WWE
wrestling just the shape and they're so
clearly Beyond outside of anything that
would be remotely we're not talking
about Newtonian physics versus General
and special relativity we're talking
about believing in genes versus
lysenkoism believing that bacterian
that's that's where we're at you laugh
but it's absolutely the case that that
is where we're at that I can be on stage
now with conservatives who will lie with
impunity um about say January 6 the cops
let people in and I'll CH and I did this
Rec debate I'll bet you $5,000 right now
that the person first person that broke
into the building was a guy with a right
Shield it was Dominic Peno or Dominic
pisol I think proud boy he was arrested
it's all on video and then they'll go
quiet when they don't say anything that
communicates to me that you know that
you're lying you know that you're up
here telling a lie and so many of these
people do it that they lie and they lie
and they lie and they lie and they lie
and then the frustrating thing is not
the um not calling you out but because I
used to be part of this too is that
people will come forth to defend these
people under the guise of free speech
and these people are just parasites they
don't actually care about Free Speech
they're just using it to sell lies go
yeah free speech is important and that's
why blah blah blah blah blah and then
they just lie lie lie and it's like this
is a very frustrating environment to
live in because I agree conceptually
again with your world that it is kind of
scary to have somebody come in and say
well should you be able to say this or
that although we do to some extent I
can't go on TV and tell you to drink
poison right I would get in trouble
right um but right now the lies are so
outlandish that it's destroy we live in
different realities right now in the
United
States I agree with that I think what I
disagree with I don't think that is
because of the nature of people going
out and wielding
lies um I look at all of the facts laid
out before me in terms of how to deal
with the 2024 election and I make the
decision that even though I hate that
this is the decision that I'm going to
vote for Trump you look at that and
think yo what the like how can
people like are their brains broken um
and so the reason that I come to that
obviously it's multivariant I can walk
through it but you can if you go look at
like all the January 6 stuff for
instance I'm like yeah like there's
nothing to argue but I look at all of
that and go if you could show me that
Trump was legitimately lying that he
knew that the election um that he had
lost fair and square and he was still
doing these things does that completely
discredit him and so yes at that point I
would say if you had a um a mind reading
device and you knew that that would
completely change my take on it because
I walk away from watching the or hearing
the calls of him literally on your
stream uh him doing the calls and
everything I walk away going I think he
actually believed it now whether he's a
fool or not to believe it is a totally
different question whether he's
completely delusional is a totally
different question but if you could show
me into his heart know he for real is
lying okay cool that changes my
perspective now I would want you to
point said mind reading device at all
the fears that I have over on the left
because I want to know what's going on
in their hearts as well but I have a
very definable thing that would allow me
to change my mind um and so so but I
don't think for a second that you're WWE
any of this either I think you really
believe it's obvious that he's lying how
could anybody believe anything
differently um so my thing is given that
the only heart I can see inside as my
own and I know that I'm not making it up
and I know that um and it'll be easy
because I'm sure you'll push me on a lot
of this stuff and you'll see which ways
I'll break and go one way or the other
um but I feel that goodfaith people a
certain level of intellect can look at
that and walk away with different views
and I want them to and when I look at
putting hardcore controls in to make
sure that we account for
disinformation that uh you make the
world worse like I'm way more terrified
of that then I am it being more
difficult for the public to Think
Through what is true than I am the world
where we're being told what is true
gotcha I think that the thought process
that you have right now in terms of
people being able to reasonably disagree
on that I think is the end of this
country probably it's probably why might
be looking to leave after this election
cycle because I think that people just
yes I it's just so beyond the pale that
we can have reasonable disagreements
over whether or not the last president
tried to lead a rebellion against the
government to entrench himself in power
I don't know how we can have people to
disagree on that and still function
because who's to say the next deal isn't
I need to murder political opponents
which he now has criminal immunity to do
or I need to silence the media because
as he said multiple times the media is
the enemy of the people or if he comes
into office and he does suspend the
Constitution as he said multiple times
he would like to do and he is a dictator
on day one which he's told Sean Hannity
that he wants to be right then at that
point like I have nothing I can say
because we don't we don't misalign on
values it's just we've just seen I don't
think we've even seen the same set of
facts because like even or you can
respond to that if you want yeah so I
was just I have a theory that the way
that people should be appr approaching
this is to just completely rule out
preemptive strikes so the thing that
worries me cuz here's what my hope would
be like if KLA Harris wins and shout out
to David Pacman he's the first person
that I heard say it in the opposite
direction uh he said look if Trump wins
I'm not going to spend any time talking
about the election with stolen I'm just
going to be like cool how do we make
sure that only um policies get put in
place that are actually good for the
American people and I'm like yeah if I
end up uh if Trump doesn't get elected
and KLA Harris does does not going to
spend any time saying oh the election
was stolen it's like word man actually
hope whatever Direction it's a landslide
and so now even though like let's say in
fact let's make it way harder if you
point the um mind reading device at
Trump and I realize oh my God he was
actually lying that was a legitimate
attempted coup and he is going to do
everything he can to take over the
government and make sure that a
republican is in there forever then
immediately I'm a th% opposed to that
bad not good
but at that point that's where I go into
I don't do preemptive strikes I want to
see how this plays out but I would for
sure I'm now in Second Amendment
territory I'm now in the uh I am
hunkering down preparing for the worst
looking at getting out of a major city
but because I don't know that I'm right
I don't know that that's going to go in
a horrible Direction um I want to wait
and see
but would you wait and see before you
left the country or would you be like
I'm just the overall investment in
whatever project we have now just
collapses immediately I'm just what what
project I don't understand the American
project I guess right yeah that the I
think that it's um the problem is it's
just there are just so many it's just a
wide collection of facts I guess um but
where would you go uh I don't know
someplace in uh I either just hunker
down in some no income tax place in the
US and just say screw it or I'd go to
Canada or Mexico the
no okay so you are somebody who I think
is
extraordinarily good at all right what
are the facts on the ground um being
very dispassionate just looking at
things um very
objectively it that feels emotional it
feels like you so believe and so love in
this country that there's something in
there that would break your heart and it
is a response to having your heart
broken is that a misread or does that
feel accurate I mean it's partially true
but I mean like heartbroken over like
the like imagine you're a one-third
owner I guess in a business and the two
thirds other guys decide that you're not
going to make cars anymore you're G to
make anime dolls and you're like
buy me out I'm leaving right so I guess
in that sense yeah because it would just
mean that the direction and what this
country stands for what it means
internationally for the United States
just like everything has like changed
fundamentally so much that I don't even
know if I identify strongly with it
anymore doesn't it feel like in this
moment like in this moment that's where
we're at but like I can only imagine in
the middle of the Civil War that had to
be pretty gnarly like the fact that you
know to put myself on the good gu side
the fact that half the country wants to
keep slaves that's
bananas and I can't believe that I live
in this world I would have to look at
the media environment back then because
I probably think that that media
environment it's it's possible that it
would have been better because at least
those people this is really about the
media envir because those people my
guess is and I'm not an expert on my
guess is those people knew what they
were fighting over right one side
thought they had the right to maintain
slaves the other side didn't but right
now what are we fighting over whether or
not Hugo Chavez came back from the dead
and created a Dominion voting systems to
you laugh at this but the guy that
you're voting for believes everything
that I'm saying or purports to he
doesn't actually um but he he tells his
fans that um constantly and he lies
about it even to this day right or that
you know from the top down there was his
Grand conspiracy to steal the election
from Donald Trump or that the 50 million
other crazy wild ridiculous things he
said like these we don't even know like
why we disagree with each other now like
is FEMA stealing homes from people
because it's giving out money and then
they disguised it as alone or is there
50 million illegal immigrants that are
coming in because KL Harris is you know
personally unlocking the tunnels to let
them into destroy their like we don't
even know what we're fighting at anymore
and and conservatives have gotten so
good at controlling the whole media
environment even in media places they
don't control directly um that they've
like memory hold so many things it's
just like it's it's unbelievable to me I
guess I don't know why do you contribute
that to one side because they do it way
worse than the other side it's not even
remote you will never don't you think
it's the architecture of the human mind
you will never ever ever ever be able to
give me an example of a mainstream media
organization in the United States
behaving like Fox News did over the
Dominion stuff you just no equivalent
that in and of itself should have been
the destruction of that political party
um for people that don't know Fox News
all of the execs and all of the hosts
knew that all the Dominion claims were
lies for from the very start and they
continued to push the lie because they
knew they were losing viewership to O
and new SMX none of this is debated none
of this is controversial all of this is
public after the depositions um there's
a reason why Fox new settle that suit
for the largest settlement in all of
corporate defamation history for some
$787 million so every single person and
I would guess if I had to estimate 80%
plus Republicans to this day believe
something that Fox News was knowingly
lying about that came from Trump's
campaign that's just unbelievable to me
okay um so what you take away from that
is that the media landscape is so
corrupt and the way that the human mind
works is so uh it's so easy to bamboozle
it that if we can't get uh tight
constraints around what can and can't be
said from media we will never be able to
have the informed public that we need to
get back to the America that you can
resonate with and be a part of sure and
I'm not even saying like tight
constraints it just there has to be some
weight to make it so that you cannot lie
with impunity it it can't be it like
every single day if somebody gets
something wrong that's different or
somebody has a different uh you know
subjective political belief like I don't
think Trump being mean to people is a
big deal or I think that kala's r or
whatever is these are fine these are
differences of opinion or whatever is
fine but it can't just be that somebody
can lie with impunity every single day
as a as a pattern and be fine that just
we can't survive we're not surviving
right now the country is like not doing
well right now internationally we're a
mess domestically we about to tear
ourselves apart in this upcoming
election it's just we can't agree on
what Aid looks like we can't we we
literally had a bill like like
there are so many individual we we like
IM here's so here's the thing and I tell
this to every single conservative that
illegal immigration isn't a problem at
all in this country in fact it's not
even close to being a problem and nobody
actually cares about it and the reason
why is because they'll say it was the
number one issue to them it was one of
the most important things is figuring
out like all of the Asylum people when a
bill was in front of Congress to fix it
okay Senate and um the house were ready
to sign it Biden was ready to sign it
into law Donald Trump pulled the plug on
it he told conservatives he said don't
sign this spell we need to keep the
Border open for the election none of
this is private none of this is secret
all of this is public McConnell talked
about it Cruz talked about it lford the
original Bill author in the Senate
talked about it and that bill got shot
down with nothing there was no
negotiating there was no nothing why I
thought it was a huge
problem for politics right so yeah I
don't even know we don't even live in
the same we don't live in the same world
nobody nobody in this country on the
left right to two totally different
realities that I agree with but I think
this is really born of something that is
just true of the human mind and so uh if
I am right that the problem we have is a
problem of the architecture of the human
mind then there's nowhere to go to
escape it so um when you look at so for
instance why didn't we just build the
wall the first time nobody was here for
that it everyone was trying to make
Trump sound like he was an absolute
lunatic xenophobe racist for wanting to
build the wall now KLA Harris in her
most recent interview was like I'll take
a good idea from wherever it comes
referring to Donald Trump wanting the
wall and having earmarked the money to
build it and so that to me is just like
yeah I get it it's the game of politics
I hate it I'm not coming to bat for it
I'm just saying I try to always find
where the rubber meets the road and the
reality is people will manipulate people
to get what they want because people are
manipulatable and so you create a
structure where people want power and
manipulation works and they're going to
manipulate Donald Trump is going to
manipulate the whoever is on the
Democratic side is going to manipulate
everybody's going to manipulate and so
now the only B workk that we have
against that is that people can say what
they believe to be true now do I wish
that we could culturally get closer to
something where people weren't just out
there saying whatever crazy thing uh
crazy lie I'll just take lies because
they're harder to deal with be out there
lying non-stop yes I wish that people
would not lie non stop uh hopefully
there are optin things that we can do so
that people um are disincentivized to
lie without something some big
overhanded thing governmental agency
giving you the social score which
terrifies me to no end um but I think
the reality is that we just have to deal
with it and deal with it with something
like I'll be very curious to see your
take on this community notes where it's
like people that have historically
disagreed on this thing all come and say
that's crazy that doesn't make any sense
and here's the truth of that matter and
especially given AI the ability to just
chew through so much information it
feels like we could come up with
something that would flag a post so
rather than the person and have it be a
part of your permanent record it's just
this post uh has this rating from these
different algorithms or these different
people the community NES are just like
liberal propaganda like that's that
people like don't take it seriously that
much anymore like it just yeah it just
the the incentives aren't there for
people to care about what's true or not
the people are looking for the
psychological Comfort basically uh when
they go and they consume news um to f i
so focusing on one thing I guess I'm
curious two questions one what would you
need to see to believe that Donald Trump
did know that he lost the election and
then number two um let's say that he
knew or let's say that he really thought
he won but he couldn't find evidence of
it does that justify him attempting to
coup the government
amazing questions so uh number one
anything where Trump is like look we
both know that uh we lost but we
shouldn't have we're the better side so
just go find me go make up 12,000 votes
if you have to right there done finished
for me I need here nothing else
bad uh now on the other side um what I
would say is let's say that Tom bil was
running for president don't worry I will
never but let's just in this world uh
I'm running for president I am utterly
convinced that I won I dude pass a lie
detector test this is fraud I know it I
believe that the peaceful transfer of
power is more important and what anybody
in that situation Trump for sure should
have handed over the keys and said I
think this is bad I'm GNA fight this
legally I'm going to go see what my
options are but it is way more important
that I hand over these Keys now even if
that means that the next step is those
guys now have an opportunity to go
become tyrannical leaders I have a base
assumption that people should not be
doing a preemptive strike you cannot
read their minds I know Trump or anybody
thinks that oh my God like we could
never hand over the keys to these other
people you have to so then do you not
think he tried to cou the government or
then why isn't that a huge factor I
think the difference between whether he
tried to coup the government is whether
he believes he actually won the election
and from listening to him speak it
really does sound like he believes it
now again if he did if he thought that
he won then it is okay if he tries to
cou the government if he thought that he
won he should have still handed over the
keys for sure just I'm trying to figure
out what would be disqualifying in your
mind for him to ever run again yeah for
him to have so if he try so if he thinks
he won even though he seen no evidence
of it he thinks he won he can try to C
the government you're like okay I'll
consider him again because I think he
thought he won so he you know I
understand why I tried to K the
government that is correct yeah okay now
I think that's terrible I hate that
that's true and this is where you have
to understand I am not moving towards
Trump I don't see anything on Trump side
this ISS move towards me but my
particular fears are triggered more by
the left right now in its current state
the left scares me more in terms of the
future being worse for the middle class
that's it and so for can I go back to
the first point about what you would
need to see from him yep um are you
aware that that standard of evidence is
higher than like any standard of
evidence that for any crime in the world
we never require a confession to like
convict on a person state of mind right
yeah I mean this comes down to people
are building a mental model of what am I
willing to concede that in a normal
circumstance I would never consider
conceding and so this is where it's been
said so many times the lesser of evils
that it loses its punch Trump is going
to spend inordinate amounts of money
which is actually like my number one
thing we are driving this country into a
wall through debt we are stealing from
people that cannot afford to be stolen
from it is a moral outrage and both
sides do it so I'm already homeless in
terms of nobody for me to move towards
the only candidate that at least had
rhetoric around this was RFK didn't get
on the the ballot but that was like my
siren song I was being drawn to that I
think you might have criticisms there
which I could not be more open to but
that was my thing was like yo he's
talking about making people healthy
again he's at least saying this budget
is crazy you cannot keep doing this we
are steal dealing from future
Generations which is true I don't even
have kids and I'm like this is a moral
outrage but both of them do it so I
can't disqualify either of them on that
I think the fact that we've ended up
with Trump to vote for again is bananas
we had other people that for my money
maybe they are unelectable for other
reasons but for my money would have been
way more interesting it is what it is
and then over here when kamla Harris
first got announced I was like maybe
maybe this is where we go she felt
presidential I was like okay there's
something here I could feel that energy
and I immediately was like this this
might be my exit and then she started
talking about economics and I was pieced
out so Donald Trump's plan to just fund
everything through in like the tariffs
on everything is a good I think your
read on tariffs is
is off and I think that there is um if
you look I Trump is not a super genius
but do I think that he actually likes to
keep people off base and I think his
rhetoric on tffs one they do work as a
protectionism he is a protectionist he
is America first so I get the card he's
trying to play sure there's a quick
thing protectionism and America First
have nothing to do with one another
because protectionism would hurt the
American economy in basically every
conceivable way as well but um uh tease
them apart from me I'm not uh if you
protect protectionism through the form
of tariffs is just going to make
everything in the United States cost
more and it's going to take away from
our ability to manufacture more final
stage products because we don't have an
infinite amount of people right now we
can manufacture everything that we do
because we import things from other
countries if we inhibit our ability to
do it and we manufacture all of it at
home then instead of building Teslas
we're going to be building widgets which
if people want to do that that's fine
but that's not an America first poliy
that's like a let's just do base
manufacturing and let China and India be
the people that make Tesla and we'll
just like put together nuts and bolts I
guess if you make protectionism blanket
which is what he's saying so I get why
people are triggered by that but if you
read that as him trying to um fire a
shot across the bow because if he
actually does that he's a just to
be nice and cut and dry but if that is
him trying to signal to other people to
knock them off balance which I have
every reason to believe he does that he
is full kayfabe that he is perfectly
willing to walk into a room and act just
a little bit crazy he's talked openly
about it he does that to unbalance
people because they don't know which
part of what he's saying is crazy a
tariff across the board on everything is
is a Fool's errand from where I'm
sitting
uh but a selective tariff to protect
certain industries I think does make
potential sense now it's one I'd have to
dig way more in all of that and to me
everything is about you try if it yields
the outcome that you predicted ahead of
time you keep doing it if it yields
something you did not predict ahead of
time then you stop doing it which is a
whole philosophy I have about the
government that we don't do anyway we'll
set that aside for now so uh I don't
think Trump is like some economic genius
by any stretch of the imagin
but the second that you say uh we are
going to tax unrealized gains I'm out
that that is that's a level of financial
illiteracy that is and look that's not
the only thing but that was the one
where was like the taxing unrealized
games over a certain amount is
incredibly stupid it's not even
close to as stupid as Trump's tariff
idea not even remotely closeing yeah
it's not even remotely as stupid that
isn't true they're from look this is
where we're going to disagree they're
both terrible yay no problem uh but
because the unrealized gains they they
actually don't exist you have to
liquidate something in order to get that
money which would literally just grind
everything to a halt you are being the
most tax inefficient people are going to
stop investing I would just be that
would be catastrophic so I think that
the way that they phrase it it was it
would only impact people with net worths
of over was it 500 million or doesn't
matter it absolutely matters because the
Tariff idea is a trillion times more
catastrophic you're forcing people to
sell and you're forcing poor people to
pay 20% more on clothes and food hold on
if you want to talk poor people which I
know you do and I really believe you
sincerely give a and I love that
about you uh the only thing to talk
about is inflation the second you print
money you are what DOI would do
tariffs would cause tons of inflation
remember you have to map me so my thing
on tariffs is that most of its posturing
that he's going to do it selectively and
if he doesn't and he really does it
across everything he's a
but he's already done why would not
assume he wouldn't do more but he did
tariffs reasonably well but he didn't
though right it just increased the cost
of goods in the United States we
sometimes where you want to do that so
take the chips for instance if we're
really trying to onshore things or take
things that are uh weapons manufacturing
anything that's in that chain even if
it's slightly more expensive for us to
do it uh domestically we need to do it
because I think again I think and I
nobody I do not want to be dictator very
much because I think I'm very fallible
um
but it is odds are that we're moving
towards conflict with China the last
thing I want are my artillery shells or
bullets or whatever to be hamstrung by
their ability to produce that which I
think is I think that's fair and I think
that there are National Security
arguments you can use for tariffs uh
Trump very rarely makes these he usually
makes economic Arguments for it but in
the world that you're talking about they
would say you you'd say we'll probably
pay a little bit more for this but it's
probably worth it for the National
Security implications and I could agree
with some of that for sure yeah that's
not an across theboard tariff though I
agree so
to be clear though we're saying that KLA
suggesting the tax on unrealized gains
which I'll bet you here and now we could
bet you know $5,000 $110,000 will never
happen because it's such a stupid policy
all forms of wealth tax financial
transaction tax unrealized gain taxes
are untenable for a billion different
reasons okay so I know it won't happen
um even okay even if she might have
flirted with the I don't know how much I
talk about it now but so we're we're
saying that she will do that we're
genuinely concerned about that but we're
not genuinely concerned about Trump
doing the only economic policy that he's
given that he's basically running on
that he's shown indications of and has
done a little bit in the past because
one I've seen what four years under
Trump looks like and it was bad for
everything that you care about it was
horrible he spent like crazy printed
money like crazy oh he did on that
they're both but he did that in in a
time of economic uh uh uh Prosperity
yeah so why would we ever expect him to
buckle down he won't then he's just
going to keep spending correct remember
if you try to M me as somebody who's
going to bat for Trump you're always
going to be confused if you go this is
weird Thomas even though Trump has all
this scary like what the uh
he's still more scared of K Harris what
the how is that possible that becomes if
somebody's trying to map my mind if they
keep going to Tom loves Trump that isn't
true no one has ever heard me go to bat
and be like oh my God he's me I'm so
excited that I'm so inflation and money
printing you don't actually care about
that then money Printing and inflation I
care about so deeply if I thought k
would do less of it I'd be voting for k
Harris but okay but the fact that Donald
Trump was willing to have ma the largest
deficits in US history in times of
economic Prosperity yep and the fact
that he tried to pressure the Federal
Reserve to keep interest rates low and
he said he'll do it again all of these
things lead to inflation and more money
circulation absolute insanity but you
think the Democrats will do it worse
even though they haven't talked about
pressure on the FED to keep rates low
they haven't talked about which one will
be worse I won't even say I as I look at
them both I just say the way that they
think about the government is
very different so you've got Trump on
one side who is bringing in Elon Musk uh
trying to get more efficient very open
to reducing mus survives on government
subsidies and contracts is important to
keep in mind right okay why does that
matter because the government is
printing money to subsidize an industry
right sure so he's the guy that's going
to come in now and be in the government
to make it more efficient you're just
saying he'll make it efficient with a
wild slant to no I'm saying I don't
think he would make it efficient I don't
know if he knows how to make a company
run efficiently because he survives on
government cities and contracts he's not
competing with it like space all the
things to attack him on not knowing how
to run a company efficiently would not
be the one well he's driven X into the
ground completely number one I think
every nobody evaluates evaluates that
company is the same worth that it was
before and he's doing so floating
tremendous Dead doing it number one we
can say that that was like a pet project
for the media or whatever um SpaceX is
an awesome company but who's their
competition the Virgin Atlant or the
Jeff Bezos like they don't really have
competition physics sh that's fine but
physics is not a company but I'm saying
that that's so ungenerous like I'm just
saying that if you want to say like
here's a guy that can take a company and
make it run efficiently and then you
show me a guy who's the majority of his
funding is through government subsidies
and government contracts well how
efficient does he have to be he has to
make a product but does have to do
efficiently I'll I'll say this I've my
first company sold both to Consumers and
to the government and selling to the
government was so hard that I was like
oh my God like don't even talk to me
about that anymore I just want to sell
directly to Consumers so that one is not
easier I would say that's harder this is
a guy who the government judging by all
the lawsuits is not exactly a big fan of
Elon and yet his service is so much
better that he's still able to unlock
those dollars is how I would look at it
and then just just as an entrepreneur
dude running one company is brutally
difficult it is so sobering as I try to
launch a video game company I think oh
my God this is so hard I can't believe
I'm doing anything this difficult and
then I look at he catches a skyscraper
with chopsticks it's like like it what
he's done from an engineering
perspective both in SpaceX Tesla the
boring companies I don't disagree with
any what you're saying just none of that
do with efficiency oh God that's where
we disagree to to so I have a this may
not be the right place to take this
conversation it will be fun no we'll
bring it by go ahead so when I'm
teaching entrepreneurs or when I'm
talking to my own staff I am trying to
orient everybody to what I call the
chaos machine it's the second law of
Thermodynamics so in a closed system
everything moves towards entropy and the
only way to bring order to that system
is to pour energy into it so the energy
into the system is exceedingly difficult
and to build one successful company ever
is brutally difficult to do it two three
four five I forget how many billion
dollar companies he's created it's a lot
it's like seven or eight it it is
literally unprecedented certainly in any
of our lifetimes it may be unprecedented
full stop and what are the seven I
thought it was two no no so he's done I
did um PayPal that's he did that was not
a billion dollar valuation when he sold
and the product wasn't even the same
PayPal he gets no there's no credit so I
know we got Tesla and SpaceX Tesla
SpaceX uh boring company I'm pretty sure
cross a billion when they when we say
cross a billion is this like net like
valuation with how much personal money
poured into it because like let's say
like I have a company with a billion
dollar valuation but I've invested like
1.5 billion in capital assets expenses
everything else I don't know how
impressive that is like Does the Bing
company even have a product they sell
yet let me ask the question a slightly
different way okay yeah um you have an
opportunity to um co-found a company
with any entrepreneur in the world and
if the company fails you and everyone
you love
die who is the entrepreneur that you go
I want to found this company with this
person without knowing much about like
their business backgrounds my guesses
would probably be either Gates or Bezos
um Bezos has worked a long time he's
bought Amazon to like this
another country crazy thing Elon has had
an atrocious track record recently with
Twitter with the money that he's loaned
out for it um and and everything else
and I don't know like the you I mean you
said to yourself the difference between
SpaceX succeeding and failing might have
been somebody in government saying I
don't think we should invest in this and
now the whole company gets the plug
pulled on it um yeah I think though so
this goes back to engineering and
efficiency so uh Bezos is not a terrible
Choice by the way he's amazing
uh but when you look at he's trying to
do blue origin obviously has not been
able to keep up with Elon not not by
even a fraction Elon did a hundred
launches I think this month it's it is
truly spectacular anyway uh this like I
often see you ask people orienting
questions I'm certainly not trying to
persuade you heard for whatever reason
it does not ring true to you that he is
an extraordinary to be clear I think
Tesla and SpaceX are awesome companies I
like that we can launch American Rockets
now to put American astronauts into
space instead of shooting them over to
Russia and doing it I think that's
really cool it's just it's interesting
to me um people will talk about things
differently depending upon the political
orientation of the subject matter I
guess and when I look at something like
SpaceX and I look at something like
Tesla in my mind these are amazing
examples of social democracy that Tesla
doesn't exist without massive government
subsidy that's just a fact SpaceX
doesn't exist without massive government
subsidy that's just a fact that doesn't
take away anything from those companies
I think that's an amazing example of
like in the beginning of this you asked
me why I thought America was an awesome
country and I think that SpaceX and
Tesla I think are examples of why
America is so cool you've got a foreign
investor from South Africa who looked at
the United States and he said that
because of the talent here because of
the land and real estate here and
because of the government's willingness
to participate here I'm going to come
here and I'm going to build and and jump
start two of like the coolest companies
in the world um that are pushing ahead
electric vehicles by 10 or 20 years that
are pushing ahead America space program
an infinite number of years we had
nothing slighted for it and but I think
that's the Confluence of a whole bunch
of other things but to I don't saying
you're necessarily saying but just say
like oh that's just is an efficient
capitalist uh in a pure Capital free
market environment we wouldn't even know
who Elon Musk is it's interesting so I
think that's false for one very simple
reason and one company that we forgot
was starlink what makes Elon interesting
and the thing that I hope he's
remembered for far more than the revenue
that he's generated is he did all of
this becoming an extraordinary engineer
and because he's such a gifted engineer
and because he is such an efficient
entrepreneur he's able to make these
things at scale and I think the thing
that he probably doesn't get enough
credit for is just the facilities that
he's been able to build sleeping on them
for months on the floor of them for
months at a time to make sure that they
get everything right just the level of
diff I I have built a manufacturing
facility I know very much firsthand that
is obscenely difficult and looking at
the level of complexity of what he's
done as somebody who's done a minor
version of that I'm just like holy hell
and the fact that he did it at the same
time across multiple companies is crazy
even if it was government subsidies that
allowed them to do it you could give
government subsidies to virtually
anybody on planet Earth and they're not
going to be able to pull off what he
pulled off simply because he has learned
engineering self-taught for most of it
uh just it's unbelievable and that to me
somebody like that that can come in and
say what you will maybe he has forever
ruined the value of x I would say I
wouldn't cash that chip yet um but for
him to come in and remove 80% of the
staff and be able to turn out more
features not more Revenue I get that but
more features is very impressive and
when I think about what's going on in
the government in terms of the sort of
liliputian strings tying you down
through regulation that's somebody who
came in and said okay wait a second uh I
know how to make this more efficiently
more efficient to get more done with
less which is precisely how I think he's
going to be looking at the government
now it remains to be seen whether he is
just doing it so he can angle everything
towards himself and there's a human
tendency to do that and so if he does it
him but if he really does come in
with a sincere desire to unlock other
entrepreneurs more Innovation to make
this the place that you're describing um
that would be amazing
okay I guess we'll see what happens
maybe yeah yeah about that okay I'm
curious uh walking through a few things
stop me if you yeah you please move past
no go for it
so do you
agree okay so how to lay out things that
I know to be true and we see how much we
line up or agree so uh prior to the 2020
election Donald Trump was telling people
for a year leading up to it he was
telling people explicitly that mail and
ballots were going to be rigged he
didn't give any suggestions on how to
make them more secure and he was was
encouraging his voter base to vote in
person on the day of do you accept those
three things as true sure
okay we know that there have been leaked
calls now of Steve Bannon and Roger
Stone saying that the plan on Election
night is he's probably just going to
claim that he won that night because we
know that as the night goes on as the
mailin votes are counted that it's going
to start to swing the other way and it
might even be enough to make him lose in
some states that it looks like he's
winning on okay are you familiar with
those two leaked calls yep okay we know
that there were a plethora of people
including uh people like steppan like
people in Trump's campaign um people on
the media famously Bernie Sanders was on
I think Jimmy Kimmel or um Fallon or
whatever and and Jim um Sanders was
saying that hey um Bernie Sanders was
saying we know that on the election
night it might look one way but as the
melon votes come in it's going to start
to change okay right do you remember all
of this all this talk yeah okay all this
I've watched plenty of Destiny streams
sure okay all of this happened and then
rolling up to the night of the election
everything plays out exactly as
everybody had said for a year beforehand
it looks like states are one way um but
then as the mailin votes start to come
in some things look like they might go
another way very famously and the
shagrin of trump and his inner Camp um
Fox News calls Arizona early for Biden
with a lot of the vote outstanding Trump
goes into a fury and then later that
night he comes out and he says he won
the election there was rampid Brer fraud
he's not going to let anybody steal the
election from him do you think that when
he made that statement at that point in
time do you think he had any evidence
whatsoever that voter fraud had happened
uh evidence probably not do I think that
he believed it yes why would he believe
that so for four years he was attacked
from every direction that you can be
attacked now imagine there's one
possibility that he's just a lunatic and
nobody wants to work for him because
rightly so he's a lunatic and who would
want to be around him or that from his
perspective I'm a good guy just trying
to do right by the American people and
I've got all these deep state operatives
that want things to stay the way that
they've always been and they're not and
so I've got all these guys constantly
betraying me and this sucks and now I
can't trust anybody and so everything
from the fact that um the media is lying
about me always trying to frame me in a
disingenuous way um and I don't know who
I can trust even people that I was told
I could trust I clearly can't trust I
don't trust the agencies like I've I've
really been assailed and so now he's
getting into again I'm I'm guessing here
I don't know that any of this is true
but getting into like a paranoid
defensive posture and that yeah things
just played out like that because he
really believed that this was designed
from the ground up there's no way that
they're going to let me win let's say
that I do grant you all of that you've
described like a paranoid narcissist why
would you ever want that person with the
keys to the presidency again you're I'm
never going to make sense to you if you
think I want that person to be but why
this feels like what everything you've
described so far like here I'm curious
who do you think has been attacked more
um in their life of Public Service
Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton um well
just because she's been in it longer
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump or Barack
Obama that one I just em blind to I
don't know Barack Obama didn't have a
supreme court pick first time of US
History because of the Republican
Congress because McConnell said he was
going to make up one-term president and
they weren't going to pass anything
through yeah that's trash okay so I I
think that for Donald Trump to have this
the whole world was with
uh Obama like sure but to be fair also
Donald Trump Donald Trump his fans do a
thing with him that drives me crazy
because I see some people do this thing
um so I have a I would say now I've
chilled out a bit but I have a very
particular personality um I can come off
as very blunt rash or kind of an
to some people and when people say when
people ask me oh why do you think that
you you know maybe everybody isn't as
friendly with you as they could be or
whatever my answer is I have a very
blunt Brash personality like not
everybody's going to like me I
understand understand that but I accept
that okay there's another type of
character that's similar to that what I
just describe myself as where they go oh
gu people just can't handle the truth
guess people just can't handle me at my
you know because I'm a little bit edgy
or whatever right and that person is
delusional when I see a person like that
it's like oh you're just a child you
haven't grown up yet you don't realize
that when you act like a piece of
nobody's going to like you right now you
can be a piece of and accept that
people won't like you for it which is
fine um I think that person is way more
grounded but Donald Trump intentionally
came in making an enemy out of every
single part of the government and of of
every single country in the world and
out of half the country so why does he
get to use that excuse that Well
everybody's mean to me when he came in
screaming about draining the swamps
screaming about how evil the government
is screaming about how the media is the
enemy of the people screaming about how
all these other countries were ripping
us off screaming about how NATO was
horrible and terrible screaming about
how everybody was ripping us off in
trait like well wouldn't you expect then
to fight with everybody isn't that like
you're setting yourself up like isn't
that your own fault and more importantly
if you were a business person wouldn't
you know
this yeah all of it so the thing that I
hope to do in this cuz again remember
I'm trying to be persuasive but I'm not
trying to persuade sure uh all I
want is to map out how some people can
look at all of those things and go yeah
but I'm still there
and where the breaking point would be
for me just speaking as one person what
would break me over but like looking at
all that stuff yeah problems he created
for himself he literally every time he
talks I'm like what the are you
doing the first four years I was trying
my best not to pay attention at all
because everything just like gave me the
heie jeebies literally I remember the
night before he got elected in 2016 my
staff was freaking out and I was like
guys he said grab them in the he
will never get elected you can all just
go home and relax like it did not he
just seemed completely unelectable not
the type of Personality that would ever
work but whether or not he he gets to
dodge the consequences of that is
irrelevant it's just we're living in a
world where people believe that he
believed it or even more um amped up for
his side they also believe it and so
that's where I think you end up going
yeah exactly that's why we can't have
people lying all the time we can't have
all this dis disinformation and that's
why I wanted to present to you that the
vast majority of the information that
I've taken in around January 6 and all
that is from you and I find you
incredibly compelling so then so okay so
then if so if on the night of he said it
was rigged he had no reason or had no
evidence at least to think that maybe he
had a thought on his mind for the next
few weeks he goes to his Department of
Justice he goes to Bar he goes to the
FBI he starts making phone calls to the
states he starts having Giuliani pal
launch all these lawsuits every single
area where they try to turn up voter
fraud they either get nothing he's
either directly rebuked by bar um by his
own agencies by his own people or the
court cases that they end up filing are
all blatant lies of which now we've seen
lawsuits that have proven
that at what point can he see and he's
like okay maybe I did lose this or
is he allowed in your mind to have such
a strong delusion that he won the
election that we were going to always
assume that he's sincere in that but he
maybe he's legitimately like a some kind
of mental illness or he's actually like
so delusional he's resistant to all
outside pressure like I'm just because
it seems it seems in a world where I
could remove half the evidence I feel
like I could have a debate over whether
or not he really thought he won or not
but there's so much overwhelming
evidence that nobody told him that he'd
won there was no good reason to think he
did all of the cases failed in every
area everything was coming up as
all the attorneys working for
him are now like like disbarred or sued
or settled like at what point and he
still thinks he won the 2020 election
like this is a guy that I want to have
the keys to the nuclear button no it's
the guy you don't want um so here's how
th this gets complicated and so people
are certainly going to get weird I'm
sure with what I'm about to say but this
is how the world works so certainly in
business for you to succeed you have to
have three traits one you have to just
have an absolute belief in yourself that
you can get it done you have to have uh
crushing fear that you're not good
enough and you have to have the ability
to to um postpone gratification and so
people that succeed and I know you don't
believe in his success if you don't
believe in Elon must success in business
you're definitely not going to believe I
believe I to be clear I do believe in
his success in business but a lot of it
happened not because of efficiency but
because he worked alongside government
like subsidies and stuff which I think
is great it's tremendous it's good we'll
agree to dis we can disagree that's fine
also uh so Trump has If he if his
business life has been like so many
other entrepreneurs before him that you
get where you get because you're the guy
that never takes no you find that answer
now I'm always careful when I'm teaching
entrepreneurs that you have to have a
code of ethics everything has to be
inside that code of ethics now I will
not speak to whether he has them whether
he abides by them but you do learn
pretty fast that there is often a path
while very hard that if you just keep
asking like how do we get there what
what is the thing that we can do to find
a path through this what seems
impossible to everybody else there
probably is a way now if he really
believes he's on the side of justice and
he really believes that he's correct
then it's like yeah you want somebody to
keep fighting to keep pushing to keep
doing these very difficult things and if
you've ever read about JFK one of the
things that's you know despite all of
his personal and moral flaws one thing
that's very impressive is this guy
really took on the establishment he ends
up getting killed for it but it's it's
very impressive how he begins to
understand how all the different pieces
work who's working against him and all
that and he just keeps saying there's
going to be a way there's going to be a
way there's going to away and he ends up
being like the moral guy you always pray
for right when it counted most I mean
just really really extraordinary but
everybody was telling him you've got to
preemptively strike there's no other way
out of this and so I fully understand
that most people will read Trump's or if
they're not on Trump's side they will
read that as there was something dark
there was something ugly happening to
him doing that but it is that impulse of
the person that ends up being very
successful that just keeps saying there
is a way to get to the positive outcome
come here why are we not worried that he
could think that that way is through
nuking an enemy yeah he could man and
this is where it gets terrifying this is
what I want people to understand these
are high stakes games they are
absolutely just unnerving and we are
living at a moment that I'm super
freaked out by but I have a personal
belief that you shouldn't do a
preemptive strike and so you have to let
people vote you have to do everything
you can to secure the election you have
to do the peaceful transfer of power
even if you smell a rat like you you
have to let these things play out and
and and I hate to say this because I'm
just not this guy but like I think
people ought to I use that as a moral
imperative peaceful transfer of power
but if it really does then devolve into
like now we're going towards tyranny
that's where the Second Amendment comes
in you hunker down and you get ready to
resist okay I guess and so then I guess
like tossing that that so what what
exactly is this like catastrophic
outcome that you're so worried about I
guess on for Comm
presidency okay so the thing that leads
to tyranny uh there's a a Trilogy of
books that that I read that really began
to shape my sense of how you end up with
a tyrannical government and just how bad
tyranny is and uh those three books are
ma the unknown story um the gulag
archipelago and the rise and fall of the
Third Reich and when you read those back
toback it's like yo there are all these
marks along the way that you see start
getting stripped away uh freedom of
speech freedom of the press uh ability
to um protest like they I'm curious when
you look at who attacks speech and press
the most you think that Democrats you
think comma would be more against that
than one I think kamla is a figurehead
for a um I wish I had a non-offensive
word for it but a blob that I it is a
thing that was is running the country
when you have a president that clearly
is not up to the task
psychologically um
and I that is exactly how changes get
made I'm going to try to explain
something real fast okay um I I don't
know how to say this well yet so bear
with me and please push on it if
something seems weak the reason that I
am so morally outraged and it may be the
only thing that morally out outages me
but the reason I'm so morally outraged
by printing money is that printing money
is a taxation where they don't have to
get you to vote on it so without your
permission they can take your money I
will call that theft it is a confusing
enough thing that people don't realize
that it's actually happening but it's
happening and it's happening fast and it
is immoral in my opinion and they go in
and do it because there's there's just
nothing for people to hold on to they
don't know what to point to until it's
too late where they're like the cost of
bread is too high but a very nefarious
thing was going on for a very long time
and there's a very known thing to do
that you can do to stop it like pay your
currency to gold or one day when Bitcoin
is a boring asset class that isn't
highly volatile like it can't be
inflated gold inflates roughly 2% a year
but anyway you get do you think the
economy would be better if we had a gold
standard yes okay the answer is not even
close it would be catastrophic it would
be the end of the it would be the most
destructive and daming thing what would
happen if switched over like that
doesn't matter there's a reason why no
why do you think no country in the world
doesn't utilize Central Banking
principles do you think everybody's
making the wrong choice yes I think
everybody is okay with the Deb cycle and
the debt cycle ends in so much blood and
despair everyone just hopes it doesn't
happen to them has that I could almost
look Beyond if it weren't for the fact
that the whole time they're stealing
your money from you and they create and
this is the thing that I'm actually
railing against and I'm morally outraged
by the average person is never going to
get to understand the stock
market and stop asking them to stop
turning everybody into a Gambler
which is what they're doing now because
you are going to lose all of a sudden
you realize if I save my money I'm
losing money I don't know why I don't
know how but suddenly groceries are
getting more expensive and so people
just know saving your money isn't going
to work and it won't work and the second
you make it such that people cannot save
their money you have done something in
my opinion that is completely immoral so
you have to give people even if you want
to with the fiat currency you have
to give them a way that they can save
their money that can't be inflated and
right now they don't understand that
they need to go buy gold they don't
understand that they need to go buy
crypto so I'm trying to protect the
average person that is never
going to figure that stuff out and so up
until 1971 the dollar was pegged to gold
and hey we were doing just fine until we
broke that and people look at the stock
market and they're like bro but the
stock markets up just put your money in
a 401k you're going to be fine no you're
not you're just keeping Pace with
inflation for the most part there's some
Nuance there that we could get into
later be clear that's not even close
right misery index inflation is
approximately like you say misery index
uh misery index would be your portfolio
gains less inflation is I think about
like 7% like your annual historic
average Returns on a market should be
around 10% inflation should be around
like two 2.5 I think right you're not
just keeping up with inflation if you're
broadly in should be zero in fact it
should be going in the opposite
direction deflation yeah okay so you
think deflation would break the economy
destroy the economy would utterly
devastate us yeah so there's not a
single country or Economist in the world
that disagrees with me who's reputable
there's a reason why no country on the
planet aims for a deflationary cycle or
aims for like having a gold standard
back in their currency okay well first
of all you look at the amount of gold
that's being purchased right now by
bricks and China well China's part of
bricks anyway uh it will be interesting
to see if they are moving to something
that is going to be pegged because if
you don't what ends up happening with
fiat currency is you inflate it to high
heaven and it collapses always and
forever you can look back in history
never once has any currency not gone to
zero so the fact that that is true
everyone is just hoping hey I hope it
doesn't happen to me but again what I
want to focus everybody on is you are
turning everybody into gamblers you have
to gamble to beat inflation the stock
market is a Gamble and right now
the stock market is driven by roughly
seven stocks seven stocks and the
devaluation of the dollar it is largely
the devaluation of the dollar that makes
it seem like the stock market is going
up we don't think that the you don't
think there's real value being created
by any of the companies in the United
States yeah for sure you think the
majority of the appreciation of
somebody's portfolio that's broadly
invested in the S&P 500 to the NASDAQ is
just inflationary that is correct for
sure yes but our inflation is not as bad
as all the other countries so that's why
it seems like because why is it the case
then that the USD is like so strong it's
like at I think a 20year high against
the Euro why is the USD is everybody
else just inflating even more that is
part of it yes and they're not the
world's Reserve currency so we are able
to distribute that out to the rest of
the world but won't last forever China's
beginning to ditch their USD they will
keep doing that brics is gaining
momentum will it take 10 years 50 years
I don't know but it's probably not going
to take much more than that and our debt
continues to just be absolutely
outrageous and you're going to have to
print at a faster and faster level in
order to make good on uh just servicing
the debt we're servicing the debt in
like seven years or something ends up
being all of our GDP it's literally
insane the only hope we have you have
two ways to get out of this war where
where enough people die you can just tip
over the table everybody's in so much
pain uh that you finally just say Deb
Jubilee everybody but again that came
with a whole lot of Bloodshed but that's
normally how things transition so like
that's how the British pound lost all of
its uh worth is hey the US and a bunch
of other countries had to help bail them
out and so they just had so much debt
that they stopped being the reserve
currency it got handed off to the US so
yeah it's very possible that we end up
in some gigantic conflict with China
let's say the war is so painful at the
end of it every body is just so
exhausted and maybe we win maybe we
don't but you have this debt Jubilee and
All Is Forgiven and it is a
blood bath all bad when you hear the
word Jubilee it sounds like it's good
but it's actually an absolute atrocity
and the people that get mowed over are
the people that didn't know enough about
finances to be protected from any of
that and so but they're just so
exhausted they give up or they
were all the ones that got sent to the
front line and killed anyway so I mean
this this is one of those you can look
at the Deb cycle over and over and over
over the last 500 years with like
freakish degree of clarity thanks to Ray
alio and just see this is the game they
play why do you think I'm just cares on
a personal level why do you think that
no other country has figured this out
and switch to like a gold standard or or
like stopped with Central Banking
practice the same reason that people
will always pursue Fame they'll pursue
wealth uh it works it works until it
doesn't and so my big pitch I'm not even
saying stop having a fiat currency if
you want to do that and people want to
opt into that system great but make sure
that you give people a way to get their
money out I hate when people call crypto
a Lifeboat because if you're thinking
about the Titanic not everybody gets in
the Lifeboat uh but if people have that
option then okay now at least some
people are going to be able to get out
of the system when it collapses now I
don't know if it's going to collapse in
50 years or 100 years or five years I
have no idea I'll put five years very
very low which is why I don't do the
preemptive strike thing but if we could
start it's not going to be overnight I
think about the debt the way I think
about climate change you do not want to
create a um a solution that's worse than
the problem but you don't want to
pretend that you don't have a problem so
we need to start being more efficient
start spending less money start looking
at whether it's going to be just being
uh positive crypto not having
cbdcs uh just giving people away for
people that are aware enough to begin
pulling their money out of the stock
market and all that stuff uh getting it
out of treasuries and bonds because the
us could very much default at the rate
that they're going and cool at least
people that know what's going on can put
a little bit away in something that
can't be inflated what do you think the
ideally the US debt should
be I mean the fantasy is that you have a
surplus like we had in the 90s but or no
the US debt not our deficits not our not
our our budget deficit but our debt do
you think the debt should ideally be
zero that's a good question um the next
question I'm going to ask because I'm
trapping but the next question I'm ask
would you ever tell a business to run
with zero debt yes really aggressively
no shot yes way shot when you were
growing your um is it's Quest right yeah
when you were growing Quest and you saw
that you had a profitable thing and that
if you expanded more that you could make
more money did you say I'm just going to
wait until this store earns enough money
so that I can put one payment on one
other store and earn that or did you
like well we're going to grow we're
going to take we're going to borrow some
money we're going to expand this
CU we know that we can leverage do you
not believe in leveraging or uh I
believe that there are some people that
are so good with leverage that they'll
be able to do magical things and the way
that I think about debt is it is high
risk but high potential the right way to
think about debt is the following so
what we did at Quest was at the very
beginning when we realized okay we could
really unlock some growth so we took on
something called mezzanine debt it was
an incredibly small amount because the
what the person really wanted was equity
and we had the option to pay the debt
back in a certain time period And if we
could get out from under the debt then
we reduced the amount of equity that
they got okay and so we paid the debt
back very quickly and while they got
some Equity we kept it very very small
then after that we got a revolving line
of credit so I could show a banker look
I have this Delay from when I have to
buy the almonds for instance to when I
get paid from the customer I'm going to
need to close that Gap but I've got
three years of historicals and so if you
loan me that money I pay a small Vig on
it and now I've just got this revolving
door of credit yeah versus debt so well
wait what's between credit and debt in
your mind I guess in that the way that
I'm thinking about credit is I know I'm
going to pay it back like I don't have
any debt that carries on let's say more
than 120 days something like that so you
constantly have somewhere between where
we were half of that amount and the full
amount and it was constantly going up
and down up and down based on what we
were doing but we had the level of
profitability that there was nothing ACR
it was never getting bigger so I'll call
it a line of credit when it's not when
you're paying it off every month
essentially I'll call it debt when it's
like oh God I'm paying interest on this
and I hope that I'm able to be fair it
probably was getting bigger but it was
always remaining the same like
percentage of of AR correct yeah I feel
like when we look at debt for the US
people tend to look at it as an absolute
figure rather than like as a percentage
of GDP I feel like it's a more fair way
to look at it because if we have a debt
of1 trillion doll and a GDP of1 trillion
you'd rather have that than2 trillion
with a GDP of like you know 20 trillion
right now it depends on what you're
doing if you have a balanced budget but
you've got a float somehow because
you've got money due that is due before
you've got the actual tax revenue coming
in sure but when you have something
where you don't have a balanced budget
you are adding to the deficit in like
extremely high numbers with rapidity we
add what a trillion dollars every
hundred days or something I think we
actually did it slightly faster than
that recently um that is crazy and that
that is quite literally robbing from
future children so there is just going
to be um there's going to come A Day of
Reckoning I just don't understand how
people can't see that are you worried at
all for the C I think it's the CP I
think the Congressional budget office
puts out estimates and they think that
like Donald Trump's economic plant would
add over the next four years twice as
much to the deficit as KLA Harris's do
you think that they're just that'd be
terrible being by okay that' be Terri so
what is the single issue then that
you're thinking K would be worse on than
Trump that like drives you towards a
trump voting Direction so the economy
broken up into debt is a huge part of it
money printing uh and then the what I
call wearing the dead flesh of a
democracy geez
okay I guess I'm just I'm I'm just the
interesting part is I just feel does
that feel like an obvious point where if
his debt is going to be worse than just
right there get out the first thing that
I have a huge problem with is um I
legitimately don't think Donald Trump
understands any of the figures that he's
talking about I don't I think that if
you would put it onto his head and say
Donald Trump explain to me the
difference between the budget
deficit uh our um trade deficit and our
national debt I don't think he would be
able to explain what any of those three
things are interchange I don't think
he'd be able to give you the difference
number one number two When Donald Trump
was in office and he was coming in off
of an economy that was already running
pretty well under Obama and then it was
continued to run well under him and he
spent spent spent SP spent even more so
even when times are good he's willing to
spend more and run historically huge
deficit
um when a catastrophe happens for Co he
people will argue whether or not he
mismanaged or not I think arguably I
think he did mismanage it in the
beginning I think he prepared us uh
poorly for it by denying its existence
and I think he prepared Governors poorly
for it um but I mean we were going argue
whatever but undeniably he ran a huge
budget deficit when he didn't have a
reason to he did a huge tax cut which is
more government spending and he didn't
pair it with any spending cuts and he
pressured the Federal Reserve to keep
interest rates as low as possible um he
did it publicly privately he just
admitted recently that he did it
privately and he'll say more when he
comes back into office He'll Do It um
publicly and privately he said I'm going
to pressure them to keep interest rates
low and then he's talking about
tariffs broad tariffs over the whole
market now you're saying maybe he won't
do it maybe he'll just do some every
single action here that he's talking
about and every single action that he
did is deficit increasing and spending
increasing with uh no paired uh Revenue
raising things he's talked about ways
that would decrease the revenue so
things like tariffs would be decreasing
the revenue and he's talking about
things that would increase the cost of
of goods and services which is
inflationary um like tariffs or or um
yeah I mean tariffs are the really big
one so I just I don't ever see how
Donald Trump is the guy
for anything having to do with money
printing spending I just seems like he's
and I don't even to be to be super blunt
I'm probably to the right of Kamala when
it comes to economic stuff um so I'm not
even fully on board with a lot of her
plans but just even in terms of spending
I feel like Donald Trump is just his
track record is worse
uh so for me thinking back to what did
it look like for people on the lower
income bracket when he was president
their wages were going up which is
certainly very encouraging obviously
covid becomes this major disruption that
maybe is all his fault and then we
should be accounting for that that isn't
my I don't think it's all his fault to
be but but um so you've got that like
just thinking back to how were things
for those four years not only for myself
but for the demographic that I really
want to see uh protected and then when I
look at the policies that Comm is
putting forward they are very much all
like giving money giving money uh I
don't I'm not sure where she's at on the
college debt forgiveness but certainly
she hasn't made any distinctions between
her and Biden Biden was pushing that
hard so you've got that just giving
money away for that you've got new home
ownership giving money away for that uh
the child tax credit giving money away
for that and some of the that one
specifically like I would love to find a
trade-off that we could do so that we
could afford to do that because that
kind of thing I think is great um but
when I look at what what is the default
answer for the um the Democratic stance
it's more government and that's the the
default stance that I think ultimately
yields something that is going to be
more terrifying over over time because
the the base assumption upon which their
ideology is built is more government is
better to be clear protectionist is the
most government you could ever do it's
anti-free trade that is like the hardest
government intervention like if I were
to grab a Libertarian back from 2006 now
I was like hey what do you think about
protectionism terar their minds would
explode like protectionism tariffs and
heavy immigration enforcement are the
least free market most big government
most protectionist things you can do yep
so one again this is not me saying hey
Trump has the for me uh well I'm I'm
comparing the two I'm just yeah yeah
yeah so the reason that I think
ultimately even though Lord knows I do
not expect him to uh knock my socks off
is again one going back I've had four
years with him it wasn't insane two that
I think the impulse to onshore certain
things is makes a lot of sense to me and
is very important from a national
security standpoint I have to I think we
have to be thoughtful about that again
if he does tear us across the board
then I'll be like that was
stupid and in no uncertain terms that
I'm sure would have a massive
detrimental impact on the economy and I
would be absolutely
outraged uh and yeah at that point you
just have to go well what a fool am I
now could also be a Tipping Point too
one thing that people say a lot is that
uh if the tffs were so bad why didn't
Biden get rid of all of them a tariff is
really hard to take down once it's put
up because when a like if I want to say
Tom okay if you want to do my
podcast I'm charging you a$ thousand
dollars ever and you're like okay well
it I can do that very easily I can
set that my own well let's say you're
like okay well you if anybody in
your group wants to be on my podcast I'm
also charging them $1,000 when we have a
bilateral tariff up well now I can't
just drop mine because now you're going
to be destroying me right I have to
engage in negotiations with you and we
have to slowly work to bring these down
together in order to ensure fairness
between our markets so it's very easy to
throw up a tariff but it's a lot harder
because you've got to negotiate to bring
them down so if Donald Trump does come
up and he's like 20% ter on
everything let's go and now the
rest of the world is like okay well
America if we start to Reed as a result
of that and something like bricks for
instance starts to increase as a result
of that now we're struggling like the UK
is we'd be struggling to like okay hold
on let's try to take these tariffs while
bricks or some other you know the EU is
is is starting to capitalize on our
losses and now we've kind of like lost a
footing and to regain it is going to the
a very tricky game we are the largest
economy in the world so there's going to
be a fair amount of buffer there that
we'll be able to deal with unless again
he does something moronic like across
everything tariffs that becomes a
totally different game um but yeah the
default answer of more government
spending more government programs um
that that default stance is the thing
that worries me versus and again maybe
this is signaling and and it ends up not
being true and maybe uh Elon and Trump
end up hating each other and elon's like
I can't work with this guy and Pie is
out and no efficiency is brought uh but
right now between the um the things that
I've seen Elon do out in the real world
the idea that he's going to be able to
apply that inside the government um that
is very enticing again because I see the
very thing that he is unbelievably good
at is getting efficiency getting a large
group of people to do very difficult and
complicated tasks uh working together so
we'll see this this is all going to play
out in real time uh the only thing I
won't do is double down if this ends up
being wrong and and we'll never have the
counterfactual but hey if this doesn't
go somewhere positive I'll be like well
that was a
mistake okay all right so if you
somebody who I think is extremely
compelling at this stuff um if you had a
chance to make your case for why people
should ignore the out of me and
vote for KLA Harris what would the pitch
be um
the problem is that like all of these
things are like there's a lot of things
that intuitively sound really good and
they require a bit more examination and
then I think they sound a lot worse and
to argue in favor of each of those
things is just incredibly difficult um I
can give you two examples off the top of
my head do you think it's better to have
a stronger currency or a weaker currency
stronger okay I think intuitively that
feels incredibly true the actual answer
is it depends on your economy so if
you're in the European Union you want to
join the um it's either called the Euro
zone or the European Economic
Opportunity whatever if you're if you're
part of the Euro right it's hard to join
the Euro because you lose the ability to
control your currency a stronger
currency is really good for your import
market a stronger currency is really bad
for your export Market a weaker currency
um is really good for your export Market
but it's bad for your import market so
in times where you might want to export
a whole bunch more having a weaker
currency is better but in times where
you want to uh import a whole lot more
having a stronger currency is better
this is one of the reasons why central
banks exist to give you the ability to
kind of control your currency based upon
what your current economy is doing
because there might be times where you
want to export a bunch there might be
times you want to import a bunch so
having a really strong USD for instance
is really fun when you go to travel
around the world or whatever because
it's like holy my dollar is going
so far you got a Euro I got a dollar
they're almost one to one now but when
you're trying to sell things to other
people in the world they're like bro I
can't afford you I'm sorry but the
USD is way too strong right now
like I'm buying less from you hurts you
um so that's like an unintuitive way
that stronger and weaker currency isn't
necessarily better or worse they just
like excel at different things and I'm
sure there will be people posting for
there's probably ton of there's a lot of
nuance in there and ways that be better
ways it could be worse but that's one
thing um manufacturing things at home it
would be better to manufacture things
here or manufacture things abroad the
intuitive answer is we should
manufacture things here um the reality
is is there is um there's only so many
people that can do so many things right
um if you've got a guy here who's a
computer programmer the only reason why
he can be a computer programmer is
because somebody put that computer
together for him the only reason that
people that put the computer together
were able to do it is because somebody
was able to build the components and
then because somebody was able to refine
the material and then because somebody
was able to mine the material right this
requires an amount of people that if we
were to say we're going to do everything
at home okay well fine you're probably
going to have to scale back all of your
processes like two or three or four
steps because now you have to have
people go to the Earth and M the
material and then the refin but you
don't do that you don't have people left
to be computer programmers anymore
sometimes it's good to export parts of
your supply chain because it frees up
your economy to do more productive labor
there's a reason why the American
Workforce is one of the most productive
workforces in the world productivity is
not a moral normative term productivity
just means that for every um hour of
Labor the unit of Revenue or whatever
that you produce is is is such a a
figure and because the United States
Workforce is so educated and because we
work in so many like final stages of
manufacturing um Donald Trump made fun
of it and he said we just put things
together like Legos but that is your
highest value ad of manufacturing again
can you name me a single company around
the world that mines any of the
materials for Tesla probably not but we
all know Tesla right we know we know
Samsung we know and these people are
final manufacturers because that's like
the most important part or one of the
most important parts of manufacturing um
so that's like an example of like it's
better sometimes to export parts of your
supply chain you don't want to do all of
it you want to do what you excel at
which is the most complicated educated
whatever work so all that to say that
when I'm looking at somebody like kala
versus Donald Trump I feel like Donald
Trump is a very childish understanding
of the economy when he says things like
I want to bring back manufacturing by
throwing tariffs up everywhere we don't
want to bring back that manufacturing we
don't want it we want our labor to be
specialized into more productive and
more profit generating things because we
make more money doing it it makes us a
better stronger country and it increases
the total pie that's available for
everybody to eat from um when kamla
Harris talks about crazy economic
policies some of which I think she kind
of has I trust that the Democratic party
can pull her back from the brink where
it's like hey this policy is
horrible Biden had a terrible debate
performance from Donald Trump and there
was pressure from the left leaning media
to get him to step down there was
pressure internally from the party to
get him step down and then when that
didn't work that pressure became
external until he finally stepped back
and he said fine comma can run when
Donald Trump up if anybody
questions him he excises that person
from the conservative party he moves
like an autocrat um I won't say the f-
word the fascist word but he moves like
an autocrat you're either with him or he
will do everything he can to destroy
your career and he says it over and over
and over again at every speech I can't
when he on the called to raffensberger
he's talking about the governor of
Georgia I can't believe I helped the
schmuck get elected because he wouldn't
help him throw the election um there's a
reason why every single person that's
worked around Trump basically hates him
now where's where's his last vice
president Pence right why are all of the
people that were in his last Cabinet why
you know like 40 of these guys won't
even vouch for him and support him
anymore in new Administration like
there's a reason why everybody around
him doesn't like him and he doesn't have
like a comprehensive vision for the
country that sounds like a mature
Statesman or economics understander or
anything um does it sounds he just has
like slogans I guess like my final like
my final thing when I think about Donald
Trump and I think about Trump the thing
that I think is the most interesting
about Trump is I think Donald Trump his
brand is his brand and that's very
interesting to me when I think of like
the brand of a person usually it stands
for some good or service that they have
they're a coach they make cars they do
whatever but for Donald Trump like and
you can tell me because you've been Rich
here way longer than I have uh I'm from
Omaha I've never heard anybody say you
got to have a trump stake um I've heard
people call out specific hotels and
stuff I've never heard somebody say you
got to go to the Trump Tower do that's
the experience need right his brand was
just having a brand and when I look at
him as president and the and the
policies and things he advocates for it
feels the same way we're just going to
terar everything and bring it all back
and I was like that sounds good but I
think that's it just is wholly
unrealistic and then when I when I
compare the time in office like what did
people say for Trump honest to God when
he was coming in reasonable people I
don't think would have said much would
have happened I think it was worse than
people expected the immunity ruling from
the Supreme Court is crazy the January 6
stuff was insane um his his his
Co response was terrible the BLM riots
happened under him even though some we
like memory hle of this all the
lockdowns the lack of coordination
between the governors like it wasn't the
best time and and somehow conservatives
will say like do you think you were
better off four years ago four years ago
we were all living under lockdowns do we
not remember this I don't think we were
better off four years ago maybe six
years ago but also if you look at at
every metric for the economy we were
coming off of Obama Obama's economy
which was running really hot on his last
term but every time a Democrat comes in
it's always on the back with some
Republican catastrophe like in
2007 2008 we had to come in Obama came
in after George W bush had
laid waste well not I shouldn't
blame him completely but the whole
housing crisis and then Biden had to
come in after um you know after Co and
everything for that but the um the
actions in the government I think speak
volumes right there's a reason why when
Trump asked for that immunity ruling not
a single uh Republican is worried about
what Biden will do because they don't
think Biden will do anything uh because
Democrats wouldn't abuse their power in
that way so I guess I wish that people
just look at like the actions in
government and look at what the people
have actually done and then what they
say they're going to do and I feel like
the answer is are so clear like we had 8
years of Obama and there is no communism
or socialism we had four years of Biden
we're still not communist or socialist
he didn't destroy everything um we had
four years of trump and we got in my
opinion a a handful of some of the worst
Supreme Court rulings that I think are
like a blemish on the court um though in
the history of United States judicial
review um and then a guy that has
convinced 80% of the Republican party
that the last three elections the last
two elections have all been fraudulent
because Donald Trump doesn't believe in
the results of the 2016 one as well he
also thinks he won the popular but 3
million illegals voted with no evidence
so I guess broadly speaking that would
be my my Spiel on it yeah it's pretty
good awesome man I think you are an
incredible voice in many spheres but
certainly the political where can people
find you and follow along uh I'll be
living in Venezuela no I'm just kidding
uh I guess uh youtube.com Destiny
kick.com Destiny uh yeah I'll be hanging
out there I love it well guys whether
you agree or disagree with somebody if
they are well thought out I think it
goes a long way way to forming your own
opinions to spend some time with them I
cannot recommend highly enough spending
more time with Destiny and speaking of
people you should spend time with if you
haven't already be sure to subscribe and
until next time my friends be legendary
take care peace if you like this
conversation check out this episode to
learn more what's up guys Tom Bilu here
and this week we're doing something a
little bit different with the election
right around the corner I wanted to do
something special and really cut through
the noise so we're bringing in some of
the sharpest Minds from both sides of
the aisle to answer two simple questions