Kind: captions
Language: en
I think the AI censorship Wars are going
to be a thousand times more intense and
a thousand times more important my guest
today is someone who doesn't just keep
up with Innovation he creates it the
incredible Mark Andre trust me when
someone like Mark who spent his entire
career betting on the future says this
is the next major disruption you need to
listen from a political standpoint we
should hope that we have rapid
technology progress because if we have
rapid technology progress we'll have
rapid economic growth do people care um
and are people going to be will to stand
up for this and I think that that's
what's required it's going to displace a
lot of jobs uh some of those people will
redistribute themselves by acquiring new
skills other people will not this isn't
something to think about tomorrow you've
got to be prepared today so let's Dive
Right In I bring you Mark
andreon Mark Andre welcome to the
podcast awesome thank you for having
me my pleasure now you've had a insane
amount of success betting on where
Industries are going so let me ask you
what is the most radical disruption that
you see coming in the near future with
AI you know I I just say like we're
convinced AI is one of those sort of
moments of of fundamental change um and
you know in in our in the tech industry
you know these come along every couple
of decades but they're not
frequent um and you know this one is up
there with the microprocessor and the
computer and the internet for sure and
maybe bigger um and so for for us in the
tech industry this is a uh this is a I
think a very very very profound powerful
moment um and of course you're already
seeing you know a lot a lot of the um a
lot of the effects that already playing
out but um you know this technolog is
that this technolog is going to change a
lot of things and it's going to be I
think very uh very
exciting and so for people that don't
know you have a fundamentally optimistic
view of AI of technology in general um
do you have like from an investment
strategy do you guys have a thesis on
what industry you think is going to be
most advantaged by AI that you're trying
to get into yeah there there are many so
we're involved in in in many um there I
would say there's some obvious slam dunk
one since I would say Healthcare um is a
slam dunk one I actually just I actually
just uh happen to have lunch with Demis
hbus who just won the Nobel Prize uh in
chemistry for his work on protein
folding um and not a bad lunch date yeah
yeah exactly uh and um and he was kned
this year also so he's also s sir Demus
um but uh you know he and his colleagues
basically have this transformative
approach that you know they they believe
is going to lead to dramatic
breakthroughs in in in the development
of medicine in the years ahead powered
by AI um so you know Healthcare is an
obvious one um entertainment um is one
that I think is it's going to be
extremely exciting what happens from
here and again that's that's already
starting to play out um and uh you know
you're already seeing like just sort of
incredible creativity being applied um
uh to that and so you know maybe you
could kind of maybe bookend it by saying
those because it's kind of the most
serious one and the most fun one uh but
then look there's there's there's lots
lots of other stuff um probably the
single biggest question I'm asking right
now is robotics um you know there's been
the promise of uh you know kind of
Robotics you know kind of saturating our
society and you know everybody having
you know robot robots in the home and
you know everybody having you know
robots to do you know to do everything
manual labor and you know wash the
dishes and pack the suitcase and clean
the toilet and you know you know
conceivably everything um you know the
manual labor um you know kind of free
people from manual labor and that's you
know been a promise you know going back
you know in science fiction it's been a
promise for you know like 120 years um
and um you know until recently we were
no closer than we were maybe back then
but you know you're starting to see very
dramatic I think
breakthroughs um and I think uh you know
sort of like you had sort of drones that
Now work like autonomous drones are like
now a standard thing um self-flying
self-piloting drones you know have
self-driving cars that are now a thing
and that now now work really well um and
I think uh it may be you know humanoid
robots and all kinds of other uh forms
of robots um uh we have uh we have two
of we have two Chinese robot dogs at
home um
and yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah we you
actually have them at your house yeah
yeah yeah so there's a uh there you so
you so everybody's probably seen all the
demos remember there's this company bust
and dynamics that has all these they
always have these great demos you see
you see these videos of these robot dogs
running around but you know they cost
like $50,000 $100,000 and then and that
company never really brought them to
Market um and so it never really worked
outside of as a demo uh but there are
now Chinese companies that have these
things down to
$1,500 um yeah and they like they're
great they're great they run around they
actually they run actually quite quickly
they can outrun you um they uh they do
flips um they stand on their High legs
they climb stairs um they can uh there's
a version of it that has wheels uh that
they can go like 30 miles an hour um
then that one can also climb stairs it
locks the wheels and it's perfectly fine
climbing stairs um so you know those are
really starting to work and then uh you
know humanoids are coming fast and you
know Elon just had his demo day for uh
the you know Tesla robots unreal yeah
and so those are those are starting to
work you know it's not quite there yet
like those were still tele operated
there's still people in the background
with VR headsets that are kind of
steering those and guiding those and
helping those but but that's also how
you train these these robots is you kind
of have they kind of watch what people
do and and then you train so I think we
might be like actually reasonably close
in robotics which would actually have a
you know would have a very big impact
and so yeah maybe you could call out
those three categories as obvious ones
to toh to focus on what kind of timeline
do you have for robotics when are we
going to start having that first round
of people buying them and having them in
their home I know elon's pegged it at 20
to 30 grand when
yeah so the the big breakthrough um so
so self-piloting drones were a very big
breakthrough um and you know the the the
the dominant ones on those in the global
market are this company DJI which is
this big uh you know company in China
you know but those now work really well
and then there's American companies we
have a we have American companies that
have you know I think even better
technology um that aren't quite the same
size yet but are really good um and so
and that's a big deal like so you can
you can have you know we we have drones
now that can like fly between tree
branches they can fly you know indoors
you know they can fly you know
completely autonomously through like by
the way underground tunnels um and so
those work really well and then like I
said like self-driving cars um you know
the whmo you know cars now are great um
and you know people who use them have
fantastic experiences and then the Tesla
self-driving capability is getting
really good um and um and so like so I
go through those to say those are both
robots um you know flying robot driving
robot um and so walking robot all of a
sudden is not so crazy um exact timing I
don't know you know I you know Swag five
years but you know could be two could be
eight I don't know optimistically three
or four um you know the the prom the
promise you know there's many many
possible form factors for these things
right um designs the the this the theory
of humanoid robots which I believe is
the the great thing about humanoid
robots is there's just there's so much
of the physical world that assumes that
there's a person present right so person
standing in an assembly line person
driving a car person driving a tractor
person you know picking you know you
know picking picking uh you know uh you
know vegetables in a field there there's
just all the all these systems um uh you
know that we have that just assume
there's a person and so if you build a
robot in the shape of a person in theory
it can just kind of you know it can kind
of you know fill in and do all that work
um and so that you know that that should
be a very big Market um and and
obviously people you know should be very
comfortable with that you know they'll
they'll you know they'll they'll dovet
tail you know really well into kind of
normal society but I also think there'll
be a lot of other you know there you can
you can package these things up however
you want and so there will be lots of
other you know kinds of you know there
already are obviously lots of robots in
the world but there will be you know
more and more of different
kinds and what are the hard Parts what
are the hurdles they still have to
overcome that's going to cause it to be
three four possibly eight years from now
yeah so there's basically I would say
three big categories so there's the
physical sort of controls the you know
the actual physical you know kind of
body and its ability to kind of control
itself um you know and that's where if
you look at like elon's demonstration
the other night you can kind of see how
how fast that stuff's moving um if
because if you watch like his
progression of the other companies doing
it they're they're getting much better
um and so that that's just moving right
along um then there's battery um Power
um is probably still a fundamental limit
um you know because it's a it's a
question of like you know how long can
you actually like power one of these
things before it has to recharge or do a
battery swap and and that's still a bit
a bit of an issue and it's it's hard to
make progress on batteries but um a lot
of people are working on it um and then
software is the big challenge um I think
um and you know where where where we we
would get more involved um and you know
so this sort of this all the software
and so think about it like these robots
have sensors they've got visual sensors
they've actually got um like the the
robot dogs have what's called lar which
is sort of the light version of radar
which is the same thing that's in the
wayo cars um and so they you know
they've got sensors they can kind of you
know gather they've got sound you know
they can gather input you know from kind
of all around them actually they they
can gather input from their environment
better than human can because they can
see 360 degrees and you know they can do
depth sensing and so forth in ways that
we can't um so they get all the raw data
but then it's a process you have to you
have to actually process that data you
have to form it into a model of the
world you have to then the robot has to
have a plan for what it does right and
then it has to understand the
consequences of the plan right and so
you know I'm I'm I'm setting the I'm
setting the coffee down on the table you
know I can't set it down on somebody's
hand so so I have to set it down near
the hand but not on the hand I have to
keep it level because if I tip it I'm
you know I'm going to scald somebody
right so like I I and then and by the
way while I'm the robot while I'm
sitting the coffee down the person has
moved right and so I have to adapt to it
right um or you know same thing walking
through a crowd like I can't you know
you can't have robots running into
people um and so you have to have know
how they approaching how they're
approaching that problem so if I think
about when I saw the robots interacting
with the people at the party is there an
underlying goal for the robot to be
likable and is it like hey get to know
people uh try to charm them what what is
the plan that they're giving to the
robot that it's moving towards yeah so I
mean in general if you're a company in
general you want basically completely
benign right so if you're a company you
want because it's actually it lines up
nicely with the profit incentive you
know you want friendly approachable you
know think you know think you know
products that make people happy think
products that make people comfortable
you know products that aren't
threatening or intimidating and aren't
you know AR aren't hurting people and so
you you put a really really big focus on
fitting in the environment you put a
really big focus on avoiding anything
that would ever you know harm a human
being um you know you put a very big
focus on you know the robot should you
know happily you know you know you know
should happily you know whatever step
into traffic or whatever if it if it if
it's going to save somebody's life um um
and so you know you want that and then
yeah I think you know generally you want
it to be you know sort of approachable
safe harmless you know are kind of terms
that get used a lot you know you know
friendly now look this is the other
thing is um there used to be this like
really hard challenge which is how are
you going to control these things how
are you going to talk to them are they
going to you know if you watch Star Wars
they communicate and beeps and boops um
you know if you watch Star Trek and
you're watching you know Commander Data
you know he's talking in English um you
know up until two years ago we thought
it would have to be you know beeps and
boops but now we have large language
models and we have these voice you know
AI you know interfaces like you know
open AI just released their advanced
voice mode and it's a it's a full you
know it's like talking to the Starship
computer and the Starship Enterprise or
you know a you know it's just like
talking to a person and so all of a
sudden you can give these robots voices
they can talk they can listen you know
they can explain quantum physics to you
they can sing you a little Lai they can
you know forecast the presidential
election like you know they can do what
they can now do whatever you want um and
so that's that's the other part of it is
that you know you're you're going to
really be able to talk and interact with
them um the first one I saw the Boston
Dynamics guys did this hysterical demo
where they they wired up one of these
early language models a couple years ago
to their robot dog um and they gave it a
like a super plumy like English butler
voice um so it's like this like you know
mechanical robot dog like stomping
around but it's talking to you like it's
like it's it's like you're Bruce Wayne
and it's Alfred or something you know
it's just you know you as the robot dog
what do you see and it does like the
very Plumb accit oh you know I see a
lovely pile of rocks um and so yeah
you're going to there by the way there's
going to be enormous creativity um
there's this uh startup we're not
involved in um but I I like the guys a
lot called CUO uh in Redwood City that
basically has a a plushy uh so they have
a stuffed animal um and um it's
basically designed for little kids um
and it's a voice it's a voice UI um and
it it's back ended by a large language
model and you know it doesn't move it's
just it's just a plushy with a voice box
um but it will happily sit and tell kids
jokes and teach them all about you know
whatever they want learn about and talk
to them about whatever is on their mind
um and they have it you know really
elegantly wired up where the parent the
parent can both control how the toy
actually like what it's willing to talk
about so you can as a parent you can
like Define you know the topics that are
like go zones versus no go zones so you
could kind of say you know let it talk
to the kid about you know science but
not politics for example um and then you
get as a parent you get a real-time
transcript of the of the interaction so
like your kids's up in the bedroom
talking to the talking to the thing and
you actually get to see see the
conversation right and so and it's funny
when you when you watch this with like
kids they just think this is like the
most natural normal thing in the world
right I've talked in the past I I have a
9-year-old and I brought home um when
chat GPT first shipped um you know two
years ago I guess he was seven and so I
uh he has a laptop that he does his some
of his his school stuff on and so I set
up chat GPT on his laptop and I sat him
down I was so proud of myself because
I'm like I'm like I don't know it's like
I'm I'm you know I'm coming down from
the mountain to deliver like the gift of
fire to my child like I'm giving him
like the super technology that's going
to be with him his whole life that's
going to answer any question and help
him with all his work and this like the
most amazing gift of technology I could
give him and I I I showed him chat GPT
and I said you know you type in any
question you want and then it answers
the question and he looked at me and he
said you know
so right and I was like what do you mean
so like this is like the Breakthrough
this is like this is the thing this is
like the thing for 80 years we've all
been working on and it finally works and
he's like what else would you use a
computer for like so funny like
obviously it answers your questions
right um and so like I think kids are
going to kids are I mean it's already
happening kids are going to pick this up
like incredibly fast it's going to be
you know super normal um anyway so long
answer to your question we have we have
a we have a chance to design you know we
can design technology to be as as as
friendly and helpful and accommodating
and and supportive as as we can possibly
imagine and I think that the commercial
products will all get built that way for
sure yeah to me that's where the biggest
disruption is going to be when I think
about AI I think I'm as optimistic as
you in terms of the things that it will
do for us it's intellect you're going to
be able to throw you know God knows how
many new uh PhD Lev people and maybe one
day even more at all these incredible
problems all right that's going to be
utterly fantastic but then I think about
uh your dog becomes a robot dog uh
becomes furry and fluffy and wonderful
but it also talks to your kids and helps
raise them and you have this lens into
it and then all of a sudden it's well
it's not just the dog it's I've got an
AI girlfriend she's not really a
girlfriend not like that well but then I
you know I've been talking to her for
three years and now robot body comes
online and I want to put that AI into
the the robot body and all the sudden I
I think that there's going to be uh a
pretty
fascinating uh to try to keep a positive
here a fascinating Schism that will
happen in society so five years ago I
wrote a comic book about this uh about
what I think is going to happen and I
think there's going to be a bifurcation
in society and I I really think this is
actually going to happen uh how big and
how dramatic that that remains to be
seen but I think you're going to get a
subset of society that says Nope not
doing this it's like the opening line in
Dune that thou shalt not make a mind an
artificial mind uh mirroring human
intelligence or whatever the exact line
is and I think people will isue AI they
will asue uh neuralink and things like
that and and they'll be sort of this new
puritanical um vein of humanity and then
you're going to get other people like me
that embrace the technology I may not be
an early adopter of neuralink but if it
truly gets safe and it allows me to
upgrade my abilities man I will do that
in a heartbeat and so then it becomes a
question of how much friction will there
be between those two sides but those
seem inevitable uh do you think I'm
crazy about that or do you see that same
inevitability and if so how does it play
out I mean I think it's certainly a
plausible scenario I think it's
certainly logical I you know it
certainly could play out that way I I I
guess I my model of human behavior is
different so I'm I'm skeptical I'm
skeptical that that is what will happen
and you know I would just start by
saying that there is a you know there is
a schism of that like that in our
society today and and they are the
Amish yeah and actually grew up you know
they were Amish near where I grew up and
and um and uh you know and you know so
so the good news with the Amish is they
have a defined quality of you know
quality of life they have you know a
whole value system sort of you know
involves you know rejecting technology
for some by the way for some very deeply
thought through reasons um and you know
they're you know by all accounts you
know in many cases very happy and and by
the way by the way they're also very
fertile um uh you know so they're you
know they're having lots of kids and so
there there's there's you know there's
actually think quite a bit to admire
about what they do you know look having
said that I would just say two things
one is they are a very very very very
very small percent of the population um
and so there's not a lot of people who
volunteer to become Amish and then um
the other thing that happens if you
track them in detail what actually
happens is they don't reject technology
they just adopt it on a lag um right um
and so and basically the lag is about 30
years um and there been there's a bunch
of articles that this over the last over
the last decade where for example
they're now adopting PCS a personal
computer really yeah yeah yeah yeah well
because it's so I thought they were
still without electricity no no no no
they've got electricity I mean you know
they they can they try to control it but
they definitely this is a great example
they definitely have it right um um and
then they have Tel they now have
landline telephones um so there's just a
there's just a there's there's there's a
point where you just you know things
just get to be practically so you know
the PC so the PC thing apparently the
articles that I've read basically what
it is is the personal comp personal
computer like you know they run these
small businesses they they'll have like
a you know they'll do like handcar
furniture for example that's like you
know these amazing things well it's just
a lot easier to run a furniture store if
you've got a personal computer to do The
Ledger and the inventory on it right uh
and it's just and at a certain point
they figure out a theory under which
that's okay they they still don't
connect it to the internet um you know
but they that they do the they you know
they they have the personal computer by
the way that you know and then you just
kind of say inevitably the next step is
they're going to want to sell their
Furniture online and so it's just a
matter of time until they figure out a
way to bring in a internet connection
right and so one of the really really
fascinating things about AI is it went
from being something that was sort of
speculative and weird three years ago to
something that is now actually quite
common already in use um and and and and
and and this is quite a profound and
powerful thing that I think we'll
probably talk a lot about today which is
uh which is number one it's AI is
already in in in wide use and so the
number of users on systems like chat GPT
and mid journey and whatever are already
in the hundreds of millions and are
growing very fast um and lots and lots
of people are using these are using
these things and they use them in their
everyday life they use them for work
they may or may not admit to their boss
they're using them for work but they're
definitely using them for work you know
students are using them in school if
you've got like you know teenage kids
like any any classroom in America now
was grappling with this question of like
you know is the kid bring in an essay
that Chad GPT wrote um you know but
they're helping with homework and and
they're doing all kinds of stuff and the
the usage numbers on these Services kind
of reflect you know already broad-based
adoption and then there's a really
powerful thing underneath that that's
really important um which is the most
powerful AI systems in the world are the
ones that you get on the internet for
free um or maximum 20 bucks a month um
and and very specifically you know I
have the capability if I want to you
know I could go spend a million dollars
to just have like the best AI I could go
spend a million dollar a year if I go
spend a million dollars year today I do
not get a better AI than you get when
you sign up for cat GPT it's literally
not available I can't do it the best AI
in the world is the thing it's on ched
GPT or by the way Google Gemini or
Microsoft Bing or um you know anthropic
Claude you know there or XX um you know
grock the the xai one or mrr which is
you know one of our companies or llama
for meta there's like seven of these now
that are like available either for free
or for or at most for 20 bucks a month
um and and they're the best in the world
um and so it's actually quite shocking
striking shocking which is the a lot of
people have the mental model of oh well
the best technology must be basically
hoed by a few people who are then going
to Lord it over the rest of us and are
going to make all the money on it right
it's kind of the you know the kind of
you know kind of always the fear on
these things the the reality is like
this technology is democratizing faster
than the computer did faster than the
internet did it's available to everybody
right out of the shoot by the way it's
getting build you know Apple's building
it into the iPhone it's just you know
now it's just Apple intelligence is
going to be a standard feature of the
iPhone and so this technology basically
has gone from not present in our society
to like almost Universal in one step and
I and I just you know it it may be that
people choose to voluntarily give it up
but I I in my life I have not yet seen
people who sort of voluntarily renounce
something that they get used to so it
yeah it it would be a first if it
happened all right uh I hear that and
you're the right person for me to have
this conversation I love when dogs bark
the loudest because they're on a leash
so you're going to be my leash I'm going
to paint uh a scenario Mario knowing
that you're going to pull me back from
the brink cuz I'm fundamentally a techno
Optimist and I'm definitely somebody
that will Embrace his technology as fast
as humanly possible we're deploying it
here in my company as rapidly as we can
I will literally if it's proven safe get
neuralink the whole
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yourself uh so here's what I think plays
out um this is as close to the sort of
realistic mess that I think we'll go
through the long Arc of History bends
towards justice but uh history does not
care about any single generation and I
think that the thing we will all have to
get very politically comfortable with is
the fact that yes AI is going to
displace jobs wildly as we move towards
something absolutely wonderful and
spectacular but it's going to displace a
lot of jobs uh some of those people will
redistribute themselves by acquiring new
skills other people will not uh and it
won't be a great time for them and their
families will rally around them as the
material wealth is unlocked as spending
power becomes more abundant all of that
the the younger people that are more
intellectually Nimble uh will take
advantage of that to to care for people
but there's going to be this conflict on
the left and the right as to hey
shouldn't we just give these people Ubi
or whatever to take care of the people
that are going to struggle because they
are going to struggle and if people
don't have a mental defense if they
don't have a narrative that they can
understand about how we weather that
storm I think they'll make very bizarre
economic choices as you were talking um
you're talking about deflation and
people ought to wonder how on Earth
given all the technological advances
we've had over the last 300 years how is
inflation still going up this seems
crazy and the reason that inflation goes
up despite the massive deflation that
technology brings is that the government
gobbles It Up by printing money and oh
boy do I have a personal bone to pick I
have no idea your take on the economy
and how it intersects uh so I'll plant
my flag and let you react I think that
the you need to only look at the M2
money supply chart to see I mean it's
just absolutely outrageous uh how much
more money has been poured into the
system completely artificially just
generated uh out of thin air um and that
that is the inflation when we say
inflation that's what we're talking
about the inflation of the the money
supply in doing that the government
doesn't have to get your vote on
something they will I refer to and I I
do not want to put words in your mouth
but I refer to that as the government
steals from you and then they force you
to play uh the stock market as one
standin for investments in order to beat
uh inflation caused by them printing
money and stealing from you um and I
think that's deranging and I think that
the government has a moral obligation to
give people a non-inflatable currency in
which people can at least Park their
wealth so that the average person who
does not want to play the stock market
can just save like a a guy that is a
janitor and he's just trying to get by
and and take care of his family should
be able to Sock away money and not have
its value eroded over time uh through
very conscious and poor in my opinion
policies um curious to get your take on
that if if if I tell you that in any
given time you could have more or less
technology change and then that that
change would show up in economic
statistics the way that e economists
measure it as what they productivity
growth which is a thing they measure
it's a you know it's actual number um
and so you know if you have if a society
has you know 1% productivity growth
that's super low if they have 4%
productivity growth per year that's like
super high let's let's let's call that
the super ring and if you could ever get
to eight or 10% productivity growth
you'd have Cornucopia technological
Utopia it'd be amazing every everything
would get like super cheap and abundant
super fast but like that modern
societies go somewhere between 1 and 4%
um would you say that we live in a time
today in which productivity is uh growth
and therefore technological change is
running high or low um I think we are
about to
unleash a ton of that productivity but
right now I think that the government is
siphoning off so much of that
productivity that you get this Schism
between The Young and the old so the old
I think are doing very well and the
young are getting absolutely clobbered
and so they don't feel it but if AI does
what we think it's going to do then yes
I think that we will um finally be able
to unlock a lot of that but just take
take the distributional part of it out
just because we'll come back to that but
just take the distributional part out
but just talk just about just the rate
of Technology change like do do we live
right now in a time of great of great
technology change or or low technology
change the only great technology changes
in AI so low okay and and then you'll
you'll probably get the next answer
right which is did we have faster
technology change between 19 uh 30 and
1970 um than we do today or slower uh
much faster much faster yeah those are
the correct answers and so the the met
the metric on what's happened and this
this actually quite important is that
productivity growth and therefore
technological change in the economy was
much faster in the decades that preceded
the 1970s actually by the way the
turning point was the year I was born it
was 1971 in 197 WTF happened WTF
happened 197 yeah so there's there's a
time there's a website called WTF
happened in 1971. comom and it it's just
it's it's like literally hundreds of
charts of basically this discontinuous
change on all kinds of economic and
social markers that kind of kicked in I
was born I do believe it is entirely my
fault I I will I will I will I will
confess to that um but yeah one of the
things that happened was right around
that time productivity growth
downshifted um it was running at like 2
3 4% and then it's sort of been 1 to
two% ever since and it it it abs and
flows a little bit with the economic
cycle but like it it's been quite low
for the last for the last 60 years um
part of the dtail the political thing
you were saying there's a lot of
questions as to why it's been so low
there's actually economists talk about
something called the productivity
Paradox because it it was weird because
the computer emerged in the 1970s and so
all the economists in the 1970s said the
computer is going to lead to it's it's
going to lead to Cornucopia it's going
to lead to enormous productivity growth
of course it is you you got mors law and
you know it's just like it's all this
software and all this you know inventory
Just in Time Manufacturing and you're G
to have you know by the way robots right
um and so you're going to have this for
sure you're going to have a massive
takeoff in in productivity growth and
actually what happened was productivity
growth uh actually downshifted and so
the the whole all of our expectations
for how Society works are actually
geared towards low productivity growth
and low economic growth from a
historical
standpoint the importance of that is
really key to the next thing that you
said which is the psychological effect
of being in a low growth environment is
zero some politics right logically right
because if if we're in a high growth
environment if the economy if if
technology productivity growth is
running at 4% or God willing someday
more and if economic growth is running
at 4 per or more the economy will be
doing so well it will be spewing money
in all directions um everything will be
going crazy crazy everything will be
every business will be flush every
consumer will feel fantastic jobs are
being created all over the place
everybody's kids for sure are going to
live better lives than their parents did
it's going to be great by the way the
1990s were that right there there was
this kind of fiveyear stretch in the
1990s where economic growth really took
off and if you probably remember you
probably like it was it was it was
fantastic right everybody felt
awesome right um and so this is one of
the kind of weird this this is why like
a lot of the fears around the impact of
technology I think are really misguided
when it comes to all these economic and
political topics which is from a
political standpoint we should hope that
we have rapid technology progress
because if we have rapid technology
progress we'll have rapid economic
growth if we have rapid economic growth
we'll have positive some politics right
for for me to be bet in a high growth
environment for me to be better off I
can go be better off I can go exercise
my skills and talents and get new jobs
and switch jobs and switch careers and
do all kinds of things and I have a path
and a future for myself and my children
that does not require taking away from
other people in a low growth environment
all of the economics and all the
politics go zero sum because the only
way for me to do better is I have to
take away from you right or or to your
point the government exactly I
completely agree with you or what
happens is the government just inflates
and they and and they inflate because
they want to basically buy votes they
want to basically spend on programs and
they want to buy votes um and so so this
is this is sort of what I would say
which is like if if you want zero some
Poli zero some Smashmouth destructive
politics with the government playing a
bigger and bigger role you want low
technological devel you want a slow pace
of technological development if you want
positive some politics where people are
thrilled and excited about the future
and about their own opportunity and they
don't have to feel like they have to
take away from somebody else and they
don't need handouts from the government
because they're doing so well you want
rapid productivity growth right and so
that you said I'm saying like it's it's
the opposite of the fear that everybody
thinks that they have um I have many
other thoughts on your your question but
yeah let me let me pause there and see
which part you want to you wanted to get
to oh inflation let
ask yeah so inflation yeah so look I
would just say two things on inflation
it's actually pretty pretty interesting
so there's an overall concept of
inflation which is you said as growth of
the money supply but the but the but the
way that that plays out in the economy
is and they actually analyze it this way
it's it's basically a represent it's
it's basically way they think about it
is it's it's the it's the basket of
overall prices of everything in the
economy and the the the government
agency that calculates the rate of
inflation uses a basket of sort of
equivalent products over time to try to
get a sense of what's actually happening
with prices um and so there's there's
both the money supply aspect of
inflation and the government printing
press and and and all that and that's
totally true but what's actually
happened inside that is actually because
of differences in technology regulation
you actually have an really actually
historically unprecedented difference in
how different Industries are actually
inflating or deflating um and there's a
chart that we can maybe post for your
listeners that basically shows three
really big important sectors of the
economy which are Healthcare education
and housing where the prices are
skyrocketing which and by the way
everybody feels this right this is just
like okay you want to go buy a starter
home or you want to get good healthare
or you want to get your kid in a good
school the prices are going crazy I mean
the the the you know the you see this in
housing prices of course another version
of this is the you know higher education
you know a four-year college degree at a
private university now costs
$400,000 and is on its way to a million
dollars right that's crazy completely
crazy completely crazy so the the the
price of higher ed is just is
skyrocketing it the the price of higher
education bachelor's degrees master's
degrees is rising far faster than the
rate of inflation um and same thing as
healthcare costs are rising faster than
the rate of inflation and housing prices
are rising faster than the rate of
inflation but then you have all these
other sectors and these are sectors like
video games entertainment consumer
electronics by the way food cars which
is good retail you know consumer
products generally um those prices are
crashing right and so the things that
you can buy today versus 2030 40 years
ago for the same Dollar in those
category I just you know take obvious
take obvious examples music obviously
music to buy music 30 years ago you had
to go spend $15 to buy a CD and get 10
songs out of which you maybe wanted two
of the songs today $10 buys you Spotify
for a month and you have you know 10
million songs on demand and you can
listen to it 247 and it's and it's
fantastic right and so the price of
music has crashed right and so the price
of housing education and Healthcare has
skyrocketed the prices of everything
else is crashing what explains that well
the prices for everything that's
crashing number one they have rapid
technological change which is which is
driving down prices because of
productivity growth and they're not
regulated right nobody in the government
is price fixing
music right whereas housing education
and um healthare are incredibly highly
regulated and centrally controlled by
the government right and and and and
they have fixed Supply dictated by the
government um and they have very slow
rate of technological adoption right
it's almost impossible to get new
technology into the Healthcare System
into the education system or into
housing like the robots are not building
houses like it's not happening right
like it's just happening right um and so
what we have actually in the economy is
a diver I call these sort of the the
slow sectors versus the fast sectors the
the sectors for which prices are
skyrocketing because of slow technology
change and too much government
regulation and the sectors where prices
are crashing because of Rapid
technological advances um and um and and
and lack of government regulation and
when you chart these out there's you can
just like extrapolate the lines and so
the the the where this is happening is
you know within like a decade if the
current PRS continue within a decade a
four-year college degree is cost a
million dollars right and a flat screen
TV that covers your entire wall is going
to cost
$100 right and at some point you might
want to ask the question like isn't that
backwards right right like isn't what we
all you know is where I get very
emotional about this is like okay Define
the American dream right the American
dream and by the way for that you could
probably substitute this you know the
dream in many other countries but let's
just say the American dream the American
dream I want to I want to be I want to
buy a house for my family um I want to
be able to send my kids to a great
school and then I want my family to be
able to get great health great healthare
right like those are like the three
higher bits and those are the things
where we have wired our system is wired
right now to drive the prices of those
things to the
Moon right and then good news iPhones
and cars and digital music are plentiful
but they're not Healthcare education and
um uh and housing and and and this is
the other thing that's driving inflation
right because then what happens is the
the fast sectors of the economy with
prices are crashing they're shrinking as
a percentage of the economy right
because prices are falling so fast and
then because prices are growing so fast
for healthcare education and and and
housing they're becoming larger and
larger parts of the economy and so the
economy r large and people's pocketbooks
and how you spend your money it's being
eaten by these sectors that have slow
technology growth and and and and and
and therefore high price rapidly rapidly
Rising prices by the way once again if
you want to fix this problem what's the
way to fix this problem you inject a lot
more technology into those three sectors
right you would want completely
automated you know AI driven Healthcare
you would want like AI education you
know every kid having an AI tutor um
teacher um and you would want robust
building houses right you you if you
wedged full modern technology into those
three sectors you could crash prices
which would also crash inflation and
would cause everybody to be far better
off and so once again it's this thing
where you you think you don't want the
technology to change you actually very
very very much want the technology to
change and if we don't get the
technology change our politics for the
next 30 years are going to be so crazily
vicious right because we're all going to
be fighting over this shrinking pie and
we're just we're just going to we're
just going to hate how we have to live
so let me yeah let me pause do do you
think the benefits of AI will be so
overwhelming that there's just no way
for politicians to hide the ball or uh
will there be enough narrative in story
and being able to Leverage The
resentment that exists right now to uh
continue to forall that continue to grow
government keep it strong keep it big
yes let me give you a micro answer and a
macro answer so the micro answer so you
the the doc workers strike that just
happened um yeah so the doc workers just
went on strike um uh and they demanded
this huge raise they demanded a huge
raise and they demanded no more
technology at the docs uh they have this
they have this actually this dichotomy
of an argument they say our jobs are
like so backbreaking and arduous and
physically harmful to our workers that
like we need to be appreciated a lot
more and we want you to completely ban
the introduction of automation that
would basically Auto automate those jobs
so that our our workers don't have to do
them right and they they they kind of
make both sides of this argument like at
the same time because they're completely
contradict but contradictory but that
that's not their responsibility to
resolve it but the doc workers go on
strike um it it it it they were
literally asking for no more new
technology at the docs um to to to
preserve the the the the jobs it turned
out through that I discovered I just had
never looked at that industry before it
turns out there are 25,000 Dock Workers
in the US except that's not right
there's actually 50,000 Dock Workers in
the US there's 25,000 Dock Workers
actually work on the docs and then
there's 25,000 doc workers who who just
who don't work who just sit at home and
collect paychecks because of prior
agreements Banning automation what yes
whoa yes because in previous in previous
bargaining rounds they cut deals where
if there were introduction of like for
example M graines to uh to to to unload
containers from ships that those jobs
would not go away and so those jobs have
not gone away there's nothing for that's
crazy that is malpractice well so this
is the thing so this is the thing okay
so this is the classic thing on all
these things is that good or bad well it
depends who you are this is the there's
a pol political science there's concept
of of concentrated benefits and diffuse
harms and so for those 50,000 Dock
Workers this is great for the rest of us
it just makes everything we buy more
expensive right because it makes working
the docs more expensive right because
it's got all this dead weight right loss
on on on you know on chips which is a
big part of the cost of like all the
food we buy is more expensive as a
consequence of these kinds of
Arrangements but you know you and I pay
another you know 5 cents every time we
go to the supermarket as a consequence
of this versus the 50,000 people who are
organ in a union right and are able to
negotiate on their behalf right so so so
so con so right concentrated benefits to
the doc workers diffuse harms to the
rest of the economy and and every time
you get a special interest group in the
economy pleading for you know this kind
of employment protection that's what's
happening right they're basically trying
to create a cartel an employment cartel
that benefits the people in the cartel
at the expense of everybody else so
here's the here's the the macro version
of that is um 30% of the jobs in the
United States today require some form of
Occupational
licensing you you can't just get the job
you have to have some form of
certification that you're qualified for
the job this has been pushed to
extraordinary lengths in the united in
California you need I think it's it's
now it's like 900 Plus hours of
professional training to be a
hairdresser right yes correct uh you
need what yes you you cannot just like
start cutting people's hair for money no
no no no no no no that's illegal you
need to have a whatever cosmetology
certificate to get the COS
certificate you have to go to
hairdressing school to do that by the
way you have to get admitted at
hairdressing school it has to be a
certified hairdressing school by the way
guess who controls how many hairdressing
schools there can be is the you know the
current oh this is my favorite part let
me give you my favorite example this so
the university system so so federal
student loans there's there's federal
student loans for you to go to college
for you to go to college you basically
can't normal people you can't afford to
go to college if you can't get federal
student loans so you can't be a
university or college or university in
the US without having access to the
federal student loan program it's not
possible um so but to be a College
University that is able to get to give
out federal student loans they have to
be accredited um guess who accredits
colleges colleges and universities the
existing colleges and universities yeah
saw that one coming guess how many new
colleges and universities there are
crediting like yeah buiss zero right and
so so 30% of jobs in the country right
now require some form of license or
accreditation by the way this is all do
you know by by the way this is all
doctors and by the way I think that's
good you probably want doctors to be
accredited but it's also you know nurses
Nurse Practitioners it's you know and
then it's and then it's it's it's not
just lawyers it's also paralegals um and
then it's not you know it's it's you
know it's all kind General Contractors
you know it's it's like and then and
then on and on and on including
depending on which state you're in
including you know hairdressers and many
other jobs where you would not think
this is required by the way or another
version of this is teacher you know to
be a teacher in a lot of places in the
US now you need an education degree
right is there any evidence that
teachers with an education degree are
better teachers than teachers without an
education degree I don't think so by the
way the education schools are completely
bananas crazy you know you know they're
the most crazy of like the academic
departments at these crazy universities
right but again it's it's it's a it's a
cartel structure of course K through2
education is not just a cartel it's a
Government monopoly right so you you
have to get actually hired into the into
the well actually this is the other
great part um you have um higher ed is
like this there's there K through2 is
like this and there's other branches of
of the of the the federal Workforce and
State Workforce that are like this or
actually police and police like this you
have quite a few people in the economy
today who both have their government
employees they have Civil Service
protections because they're government
employees which means in practice they
can't be fired but they're also members
of what are called public sector
unions right so they both have to get
hired by the government with whatever
criteria they set and they have to get
admitted into the public sector Union
and they have the employment protections
of both right of of both the Civil Ser
service and the public sector UNS good
right and this is why by the way you
can't fire like bad teachers can't get
fired right because you
me up so just so the point of that the
point of that is AI cannot cause change
that quickly in this
system AI cannot become a lawyer it's
not legally allowed to it can't become a
doctor it can't replace the dock worker
it can't cut your hair it can't build
your house it's not legally allowed to
right and so a very large it goes
actually to the gliber thing a very
large percentage of the economy as we
experience it literally cannot be
automated it's illegal to do so um and
so I so ridiculous yeah and so I
actually think what's going to happen is
the economic impact of AI is actually is
actually going to be very muted compared
to what people are fearing or hoping or
fearing because it's literally not legal
to do that it's crazy espe so if
everything you just walked us through is
true in terms of when you have high
growth everybody's feeling good uh more
technology equals more growth AI is
poised to bring that growth but you have
this trepidation and so people not it's
not just that but you have trepidation
around it so the fact that the
government tends towards this um justify
its existence create a new regulatory
body slow things down everything just
grinds into a halt for people that don't
know the story of goiv travels you have
this guy that encounters these tiny
liliputians and despite him being you
know whatever a thousand times bigger
than they are they they just end up
tying him down with all these tiny
little strings and uh it's a analogy
that Elon certainly has used a lot what
do you think about his idea of going in
and creating a an efficiency program
inside the government to try to free up
some of these strings so that the
economy can get going again yeah that's
right so um I give you a couple books if
people want to read about this um so one
is the Supreme Court Justice Neil
Gorsuch um just wrote a book I think
it's called like I forget the name it's
like over lawed or Overlord or something
like that but he basically lays out the
data on the number of
laws in the country um and by the way
this is another one of these WTF happen
in 1971 things which is starting in the
1970s the number of laws and regulations
in the US just took off like a rocket uh
basically what happens the the lawyers
took over everything um and by the way a
big part of that is in politics that
basically almost everybody now who's in
elected office is a lawyer um right um
and so basically the lawyers just kind
of swept in and took control of
everything and so if you and also
Senator Mike Lee has also done a lot of
work on this um if you and you can just
count the number of laws and then you
can also count the number of regulations
which if anything is even worse because
they're not even laws they're just like
a bureaucrat who's decided something
right um and the number of regulations
is just like skyrocketed so he goes
through it in the book and there's
another book called three felonies a day
um and it goes through in detail that
technically odds are you I and every
other American citizen are committing at
least three felonies every
day there are so many we just don't know
it and we don't know it we don't know it
and the reason is because there are so
many penalties there are so many
felonies on the book on the books um and
they are the felony laws are so sweeping
um in in what they cover um now you know
most of those never get detected or
prosecuted but like if somebody want if
prosecutors want to come at you they can
can figure out ways to this is what
people with lots of experience in legal
system always tell you like if if the
feds want to get you they're going to
figure out a way to do it because you're
almost certainly tripping something um
and so yeah so I completely agree with
Elon on the on on the nature of the
problem like it it's just it just yeah
and and again this is this this is sort
of this weird it's this like
concentrated benefit diffuse harm thing
which is like each law or regulation
isolation seems like a good idea um and
each law or regulation has somebody
advocating for it because they're going
to benefit from it and they you know and
typically there's like some level of
self-interest you know somebody's trying
to get something for themselves and then
they sort of have a cover story of like
you know consumer benefit or something
um and then they get these things passed
right and they you know operate in
Washington and they get these they in
the state house and they get these
things passed and you know each one of
them on its own is not a big deal but
you you run that process at scale over
60 years and that's when you end up with
the Gul you know the Gulliver scenario
which is you're just you're just
drowning in laws and regulations and
again I tie back to what I said before
like that's why the prices of healthcare
education and uh and housing of
skyrocketed is because that's where like
the laws and regulations in the economy
are concentrated all right let's talk
about then the next four years so uh if
Elon were to find himself in that
position um do you think that we could
meaningfully strip away red tape to the
point that those that that scenario you
painted where those three things we care
about so much where the prices begin to
crash or is that just unrealistic full
stop is it unrealistic in four years uh
how much can we do so it it it could be
done for sure um there is actually a
case of it actually happening in the
world right now which sitting here today
looks very good which is Argentina um
and so Javier Mele who the the new
president of Argentina um has passed I I
don't know the exact details but I think
his first big reform package which was a
real fight from to pass I think it was
like it fundamentally was like I think
it it took regulations out of I think
800 different sectors of the Argentinian
economy in one package and I they have a
follow-up package they're working on
that's like another it's like 2,000 or
something um so
he's he's trying to do exactly what you
just described he's he's trying to just
basically he's just like Melee m m this
you know staunch libertarian um you know
anti-socialist anti-communist he has
this great line which he used the other
day which I love so much um so Margaret
Thatcher had the famous line about
socialism which is she said uh you know
the thing about spending other people's
money is eventually you run out um M has
a better term which he says he says
anybody can be anybody can be a
prostitute with other people's
asses B that guy is a gangster he's
hilarious which is freaking amazing
anyway so um yeah no so he's trying to
strip as much regulation out as possible
and and the thesis of it is precisely
this it's like okay you strip out
regulation you remove government control
you liberate the people you liberate the
people to be able to exchange you know
go into voluntary trade and exchange to
be able to actually conduct business
with each other without the government
interfering with it all the time and
then as a consequence you get like far
higher rates of economic growth fire far
higher rates of prosperity you know and
and so it's this is a big experiment and
of course Argentina has been a case
study for 100 Years of doing this the
wrong way and and he's now administering
a form of shock therapy to basically see
if he can do it the right way and by the
way sitting here today you know in very
short order inflation in Argentina has
you know they've had a persistent
inflation problem for a very long time
he's completely nuked inflation um and
economic growth has kicked in and job
growth has kicked in um now he is
fighting like you know he has enemies
right he is fighting like crazy both in
h the political system and rs in the
streets you know from people who are
trying to stop this and and and so
anyway so that goes to the so to you
know to to our situation which is yes
the theory is totally sound right like
everything that elon's describing should
should absolutely happen um you know
this should absolutely be done I I by
the way I think basically everybody
knows this should be done um like again
concentrated benefits diffuse Farms even
people who benefit from some aspect of
this are suffering from it in every
other area of their lives right and so
that this this is what melee always
points out is the system in aggregate is
making everybody poor like is leading to
all these like bad as you said it's
leading for example to intergenerational
conflict that's just like unnecessary
and very destructive and so it's just
like let's just stop this form of self
harm but to do that reason I say this to
every single regulation has somebody
behind it who doesn't want it to go away
right because it benefits somebody right
it benefits the you know the Dock
Workers who are sitting at home right it
it benefits somebody right it's a all
the all the little cartels and
monopolies and oligopolies and little
conspiracies in the economy like you
know they they are in business because
they're protected by the government and
when you strip these regulations away
you expose them to competition and they
really don't like that and so there will
be a backlash from the system from the
from all of the you know the special
interest groups in aggregate will Rebel
uh in great numbers and then you know
look the the the the the the key fight
ultimately is the the Civil Service
itself you know the actual government
employees um right and so you know for
example you know how about a reform
where like there's actual performance
metrics for government employees and low
performers get fired brother please if
you want to get me an a cult start a
cult about that I'm here for that I'll
do what we need I'll wear whatever crazy
outfit I am here for that one yeah uh
yeah exactly let me ask going back to
Mele are are are the layoffs causing any
sort of economic downturn because one
criticism I've heard of Elon is hey if
you come in and you do this and you
slash it not only is it cruel but you're
going to tank the economy you're gonna
have so many people without a job yeah
yeah so that so yeah so this this
happens and by the way this happened
actually um in um in the in the late 70s
early 80s there was actually a version
of this which is inflation in the US
actually got completely out of control
um and and and and and you know there
was everything was kind of going
sideways but inflation went crazy I
think inflation spiked at like 15% uh
and then Paul Walker which was super
destructive right um like really
ruinously bad um like it destroys
everything it destroys savings it
destroys ability for businesses to plan
it just it it it's it basically damages
damages everything and pul P and the way
you crack the back of inflation is you
raise interest rates um and you you
deliberately cool the economy in order
to bring down the demand for money and
then inflation Falls um and so Paul
vulker who was the chairman of the
Federal Reserve who this famous guy he's
like the 6'8 giant guy with with a cigar
um and he was the head of the Federal
Reserve and he lived in the he lived in
the undergraduate dorms uh at I think
Georgetown um and like took the taxi to
work so he was like in in contact with
like regular people every day um even
though he was like the head of the
Federal Reserve in his three piece suit
um and um whenever he testified to
Congress if you see the old photos he's
just con just like giant clouds of cigar
smoke around him all the time so one of
these like old school figures and uh he
raised interest rates in 1981 I think to
20% um um whoa which basically crushed
the economy it basically like crushed a
man in the economy it meant that nobody
could borrow money nobody could buy a
house nobody could start a business it
was like very it was very devastating in
that moment but he he wrote a book about
this and he said at no point like when
he would like walk down the street
people and people would recognize him
this is in DC and he'd be walking down
the street or he'd be in the cab he said
nobody ever nobody was ever mad at him
because what they said was inflation is
so bad we we know that inflation is bad
we know that you have to do what you're
doing at interest rates to do it we know
if you do it you're going to fix the
inflation problem and things are going
to go back to to to being good again and
so we support you stick with it and so
he had he had the people on his side and
and melee has the same thing in
Argentina right now he has very high
level of support from the population
because they've seen the other
experiment for too long they they've
been through they've been through a
society with too much regulation uh too
much corruption and too much inflation
for for a long time and they're just
like look the you know the people are
behind them you've SE it in the polls
and you see in the Voting is they're
just like all right we're going to we're
going to try Plan B um and so so what
you need is you need you need a politics
of Plan B you you need a majority of the
population to basically say you know
look like whatever the pros and cons of
the old system were like they're not
working and we need fundamental change
and then obviously you need leadership
that's going to um you know that's going
to be willing to implement that but if
if the people are behind it um you know
then you can actually do that and so the
fact that it's actually the fact that it
worked under vulker um and the fact that
it's working under melee is is very
promising like those are two great
examples of how it can work um you know
we we don't yet have that but we could
very very interesting um when I start
thinking about how we build back we get
the economy going we take off the
Gulliver strings one of the things that
I would want to see is um one of the
things I think we need to see is a
return to prizing freedom of speech
because if we can't debate these ideas
if people can't get in there and mix it
up and say okay I think this is a way no
that's terrible we should be doing it
this way but you know nothing being
verboten like actually being able to
discuss these ideas that feels like a a
critical need um what's your take
especially coming off the heels of
talking so much about AI uh what's your
take on censorship where are we
culturally and what's ai's role going to
be in either breaking us free from
censorship or using that to really
tighten down yep y so I should start
with I am classic Gen X um I am 100% Pro
free
speech two of us I am 100% Pro free
speech by the way the first you may know
this the first amendment you know
guarantees the government at least in
theory is not supposed to censor us um
although that's been happening a bit
lately um just a smidge but the
government also there's the case law
around the first amendment that actually
defines illegal speech and there are a
bunch of forms of illegal speech and
it's things like child porn and it's
incitement to violence it's terrorist
recruitment right and so there's
actually like carve outs for you know
that stuff and so like my my My
Philosophy is basically we US law is
actually very good on this and and US
law isn't just us law it's also an you
know this has been litigated culturally
in the US as well as legally for 250
years you know going back to the Bill of
Rights um you know we we we we we we and
our predecessors in the US went through
a long process to get to where the first
amendment is um I think it it therefore
represents more than just a law I think
it's also a statement of culture um and
a statement of values and I I've always
true right and I've always been an
advocate that like the inter the code
for internet freedom of speech should
basically be that it should be the first
amendment with only limited carve outs
for things that are truly dangerous uh
you know truly destructive like I you
know I don't want you know I don't want
terrorist recruitment anymore than
anybody else but like you know should
people be able to talk about their
politics online without getting censored
100% right full full range of expression
100% of course like it's the American
way of course um and so I'm 100% on that
um you know you you know probably as
much as I do about the last decade you
know which I've seen up close which is
you know generally things went very bad
um you know the internet companies you
know ran into a variety of you know
externally and self-inflicted you know
situations where they ended up being a
pervasive censorship machine uh for a
long time you know the most dramatic
change of that is Twitter before and
after Elon buying it and we're by the
way we're a proud member of of The
Syndicate that bought it with Elon um
and so you know I'm I'm completely
thrilled by thank you for your service
by the way I to me it's just so better I
cannot yeah I just can't believe that
that was controversial it's crazy Y and
as you know it was a big change like it
was a it was an absolutely dramatic
change um uh we're also by the way the
main investor outside investor in
substack um which I think has ALS has
done a spectacular job at navigating
through this and is you know is
basically has come out the other side of
and you know they're a small company so
when they pressure gets brought to bear
on a small company it can really have an
impact but though the the the the team
there has I think done a fantastic job
navigating to a real freedom of speech
position and as a consequence substack
has now the the full range of views on
all kinds of topics in a really good way
so so the good news is we have you know
we have two two case studies where this
has gone really well uh you know the the
other ones are more difficult um here's
what I would say is I think the so the
internet social media censorship wars
were the preamble to the AI censorship
Wars um I think the AI censorship Wars
are going to be a thousand times more
intense and a thousand times more
important yes 100% um and so and and the
reason for that is um you know the
internet social media is important
because it's what we all say to each
other but AI is going to be I think the
software layer that controls everything
um it's going to be the software layer
that basically tells us everything it's
going to be the software layer that
teaches our kids um it's going to be the
software layer that we talk to every day
um and you know as as I think you know
there's already AI censorship like you
know these you know a lot of these LMS
are are very
slanted um uh and um you know it's very
easy by the way it's very easy to see
because you can go on them today and you
just ask them you know two questions
about two opposing political candidates
and they give you completely different
you know one candidate they're like I'd
be happy to tell you all about his
positions and the other candidate
they're like oh he's a hate figure I
won't talk about him and it's like wait
a minute right like half the country is
voting for one half the country is
voting for The Other yeah who are you as
an AI company to basically censor like
that and so look the AI the AI
censorship uh
uh the AI censorship conflict is already
underway the war the war the information
War around AI is already underway the by
the way the same people who were pushing
so hard for social media censorship have
now shifted their focus to AI censorship
by the way a lot of the actual censors
themselves who used to work at companies
like Twitter now work for the AI
companies so there's been like a direct
you know just you know Lessons Learned
and now applying it at a larger scale
and so I think that um yeah no look I
think this is going to be a giant fight
I think it's just starting I think it's
you know maybe the most important I
think it's maybe the most important
political fight in the next 30 Years
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Theory well because it it it everything
is Downstream everything is Downstream
from being able to discuss and argue and
be able to you know be able to
communicate um and so if if you can't
have if you cannot have open discussions
about important topics you can't get
good
answers let me give you an angle on this
I'm I am pretty sure we will agree about
this the the thing about AI censorship
that scares me isn't just the uh that
person is a bad person and so I'm not
going to um tell you about them it is
that you can control the entire world
through
framing just how you frame something and
everything has a frame and when you have
humans with uh a desire to
convert the or
indoctrinate um rather than seek truth
then now the only thing thing I can
guarantee is okay the the AI is
responding to me from within a frame
they are using that to um nudge my
thinking in a direction and it becomes a
form of mind control and and if you've
ever seen a dear listener if you've ever
seen an incredible debater I promise you
what you love about them is they can
reject the frame and then put their own
frame on it and now they're arguing from
a position of power most people can't do
it most people don't even realize
somebody just put them in a frame and
they don't realize how can straining
that frame is and that's what really
freaks me out is everything else felt
more like it was out in the open like
even when it was still Twitter and
Twitter was being censored like crazy
everybody was like bro this is so
obvious like look you post about this
poof gone I post about this it's going
to explode so when the Twitter files
came out I don't think anybody was like
wait what everyone was like yeah that's
exactly how it felt um this will be a
game of frame and really does come down
to it's hard for humans to determine
what is true we were talking earlier
about why is technology stalled out the
reason technology stalled out in my
humble opinion is physics broke
somewhere around call it 50 60 years ago
it just got hung up and it we haven't
been decoding the real world that's
truth now once you're able to make
contact with that ground level truth new
things are open to you and so that's my
big concern with AI is that we will not
be getting informed by what is making
contact with ground truth we're going to
be having the frame set we're going to
be taught as kids as adults as everybody
based on the frame that matches
somebody's ideology and that scares the
life out of me yeah it should I agree
with that um of all the radical things
that Elon is doing maybe the most
radical is that he's declared that his
goal and I say we're we're investors in
it with him um but his goal for xai is
what he calls maximally truth
seeking um and if if you've listen to
him on this what you know is he actually
means two different things by that that
I mean mean they're the same thing
ultimately but two two different angles
one is maximum truth seeking in terms of
actually understanding the universe and
so to your point actually like learning
more about physics but he also means
maximally truth seeking in terms of
Social and and and and political Affairs
um and so being able to actually speak
openly about having the AI actually be
fair and Truth seeking when it comes to
politics and of course that's you know
that that that like that's that is
possibly the most radical thing anybody
could do is build a legitimately truth
seeking AI um and at least he has you
know he's declared the determination to
do that um so you know there yeah
there's a version of the world where you
know he succeeds and you know that
becomes the new Benchmark and you know
and by the way open source AI plays a
big role here um because people can
Field open source AI to do this um
without you know permission um and so
there's a version of the world where AI
becomes an ally and trying to understand
ground truth and trying to enable the
all the actual discussions and and
debates that need to happen and then
there's a version of the world in which
it yeah it's a it's a it's a it's a
orwellian thought control you know my my
on it it's 1984 the novel 1984 was not
written to be an instruction manual
right like that was not the goal right
uh you know it was supposed to be a
dystopian you know future that we were
trying to avoid and so the idea that the
machines are telling us what to think
and that they're that they're slanted
and biased by the people who build them
I yeah I I I find to be completely
unacceptable but there is a I mean look
we have that today most of most of the
AIS in the world today are like that um
and there's a very big danger and by the
way those and again those companies
people always people the people who are
the most upset about freedom of speech
they I think justifiably aim internet
freedom of speech they justifiably aim a
lot of criticism at the at the companies
and I think that is valid in many cases
uh but I would just also tell you these
companies are under intense pressure um
and you know there's tons of activists
that are very powerful um you know that
are basically bearing down in these
companies all the time but then also the
government directly um and one of the
things that has really kicked in in the
last you know 10 years is governments
both here and in Europe and other places
you know basically seeking to censor it
control um even in ways that I I I think
are just like obviously illegal by their
own laws um and you know that that
pressure remains very strong and I I
think if anything that that pressure
probably is going to intensify and so I
this for me is in the category of yes
these are the right concerns and then
ultimately this is a democratic qu a
lowercase D Democratic question uh which
is you know do people care um and are
people going to be willing to stand up
for this and I think that's what's
required why do so many people in
society want censorship right
now well well they want censorship if
it's on their you know they want
censorship if it's on their side right
so you know so so my you know my version
of this is so when I when I you know I
told you I grew up in the I wasn't
really part of it but I grew up in the
middle of the sort of great Evangelical
Awakening in the in the 70s and 80s and
at that time the sort of Christian
conservatives in the US were the you
know the forces for censorship right and
so the classic thing was it would be
like religious groups that would try to
censor movies or books um and then it
was you know it was the coastal liberals
who would be arguing in favor of free
speech right and so it would be you know
famously like the press the Pentagon
papers they had all these about how
great Free Speech was and libraries were
saan that have free speech and they
weren't going to censor things um so the
censorship you know pressure was coming
from the right in that era um and I my
analysis of that is that's because at
that time um the right was culturally
ascendent you know American society was
much more overtly religious at that time
and the Christian conservatives were
very very powerful from a cultural
standpoint like they got to like write
the textbooks and all these things um
and so because they're because they were
winning culturally they wanted to lock
down speech so that they would continue
to win and and the left was the
counterculture right classically the
left the hippies you know the 60s 7s '
80s the left was the counterculture
right um and the press and so forth was
the counterculture and they wanted to
challenge the dominant the dominant
frame right and they wanted to disrupt
the system right and so they were Pro
free speech and then you know 30 years
later it's inverted um where you know
the left owns the universities they own
the book publishers they own the media
they own the Press they own the
newspapers they own most of the TV
stations you know they own the internet
companies they own the you know they you
know they they own the sort of these
commanding Heights of of society and
culture um and so now that they won and
now that they're in charge um you know
they want a lock down discourse and then
the right has become it's adverted the
right has now become the counterculture
and so you know the censorship pressure
comes to the left and then the right
wants to open things back up if the
right becomes culturally ascended again
I would expect that polarity to shift
once again right it it'll flip right who
whoever's in charge will not want free
speech and whoever's the rebel will want
free speech the principal position is I
want free speech regard
it's just very few people sign up for
the principle because most people are
part of the tribe but yeah I'm I'm as
was say I'm an old fashioned genx
libertarian like I I actually believe in
the
principal yeah no me too for me it free
speech is important because I um part of
thinking is speaking out loud having
your ideas challenged uh also um facts
have a halflife and so all the things
that we believe um man a lot of them
call it 30 40 years down the road we
don't believe them anymore we've
realized we had an approximation of the
truth but not the real truth the example
I always use on people is Newtonian
physics versus relativity it's like hey
when we had Newtonian physics we thought
everything worked uh we thought we
understood it and then we get to
relativity and up actually you couldn't
have had GPS with Newtonian physics so
this was an update that was absolutely
necessary and uh as we mentioned earlier
we still aren't at Ground truth so we
know that we're going to be revising
that even further and if you really
internalize every time we get closer to
ground truth it unlocks things for us
then it's like okay I just want my ideas
to be challenged and so I'll because I
um teach young entrepreneurs a lot I'm
like look you've got to recognize that
skills have utility and so the reason
you want your idea challenge is you can
actually develop a better skill once you
realize oh I was wrong about XYZ thing I
can now be right and that actually has
utility in the real world lets me do
something I couldn't do previous viously
and so when you lock that down now all
of a sudden people get stuck you get
stuck because you're not able to um have
the best arguments thrown at your own
idea it's uh that that one is is pretty
TR traumatic to me now speaking from a
position of
utility Elon uh is somebody that has
really demonstrated an obscene ability
to get things done you have bet on a lot
of entrepreneurs in your career you've
obviously been very good at picking the
best of the best what what is it that
Elon does either in worldview or action
that makes him so
effective yeah this is in my mind this
is the single biggest question I'm
really glad you asked it because it's
the single biggest question in the world
right now like it's a single biggest
question in my world right which is like
okay how is it that he does what he does
um and I would say like I don't you know
there are people who have worked with
him for a lot longer who probably
understand this better but I've had you
know an up up close kind of look at it
for the last for the last several years
now and have come to really I think
really respect it and I think understand
at least parts of it
um you know look it's the a lot of it um
uh there was that famous text exchange
and actually he's a friend of mine a
wonderful guy pague um who was running
Twitter at the time when Elon first kind
of Tangled with it um and um uh and um
he Pro is a wonderful guy and he had
literally just become CEO like a month
earlier or something and so he was just
putting his plans in place when kind of
everything every you know the hurricane
hit but um you know there was exchange
for prag is talking about whatever and
it's the famous text exchange where
elon's like all right it I'm not
having this conversation anymore and
then he's like he said you know what
have you gotten done this week right and
and what I realized when I read that was
like that that is the Elon method like
the the Elon method boiled all the way
down is what have you gotten done this
week right and and and that's very
important because at anybody who has
ever been at a large company trying to
do anything big the the big things
happen over the course of years you know
decades years months things don't happen
in weeks like you know companies have
like fiveyear plans
right they've like you know cars take
like seven years to design right like
rockets take like a decade uh fighter
jets take like 25 years big software
systems take five 10 years um you know
any large scale effort anywhere in the
economy we've just all gotten used to
this idea that things just take years
and years and years and then you've got
like processes and procedures and plans
and this you know documentation and you
know rules and structure and strategies
and like Frameworks and PowerPoint
presentations coming out of your ears
you know Amazon's big breakthrough was
to go from Amazon's big breakthrough
this just go from having PowerPoint
presentations to having like 15 page
written documents that everybody reads
at the start of a meeting which actually
is an improvement off of a PowerPoint
presentation but like you know there was
that El's like no I'm not doing any of
that like I'm not doing any of that
we're not doing any of that um basically
it's we're going to like staff these
companies almost entirely with Engineers
um I myself I myself Elon am an engineer
um I am going to understand every aspect
of every technical system that we're
working on I am going to be able to be
in all the meetings on everything from
rocket design to database design at
Twitter and everything else um I'm going
to only talk to the engineers if I can
you know have you know possibly avoid it
I'm never going to talk to anybody who's
not an engineer I'm going to talk I'm
going to go I'm going to talk to the
person who's directly relevant to the
project I'm not going through layers I'm
going all the way down to the company to
just talk to the person who's in charge
of this thing um and then basically what
he does is he goes to each of his
companies each week he identifies
whatever is the bottleneck at that
company this week and then he works with
the engineers and he fixes it that
week so what happens is his companies
move so much faster than everybody
else's like it's just like it's it's
it's it's like it's like tortoise and
rabbit like they they just move so much
faster they're so much leaner they don't
have all these layers um they don't have
all these like systems and controls and
processes and all this stuff um and but
what they have is like many of the best
engineers in the world who just
absolutely love working with a CEO who
understands the substance of what great
of what the product is and then is
willing to actually work with them hands
I mean I've been in meetings with him at
at X where you know he's in there with
like you know 24y old engineers and
they're just like they'll just like walk
through a fire for him right because
he's he's like their Idol and he's able
to have a pure conversation with them
and he cares about the work that they're
doing and if they succeed at it he is
going to love them for it and if they
fail at it he's going to be very
disappointed in them and it's just a
completely different relationship than
the CEO of one of these big tech
companies has it's just completely
different um he he does a um I was in I
was I went to see him one night when he
took over took over X and I was sitting
in the sitting the conference room so
okay so it's like 10 o'clock it's a
classic El so it's 10 o'clock at night
um and he's like yeah meet me at at
Twitter at 10 o'clock at night I'm like
fine I so I drive up and I go in and um
and uh I go to the conference room and
it's it's Elon on his it's Elon on his
iPhone uh doing email and there's a dog
on the floor and I'm like oh and you
know retrospect I was just like oh you
know is that your dog and and and he
looks at me completely dead pan he's
like I've never seen that dog before in
my
life I'm like what is it just like the
company dog you know he burst out
laughing because of course it's his dog
um and then he's like all right you know
I want to talk but he's like I I you
know I I I you know I need 15 minutes
you know and he's like by the way you
can sit and hang out if you want I just
have to take a call um and he gets on
zoom and he's on Zoom with the rocket
Engineers for the Falcon rocket the Next
Generation rocket in uh in in Texas and
it's whatever I don't know 12 o'clock
their time midnight their time and it's
just him on his iPhone on a zoom call um
you know designing the next rocket you
know which is like probably the rocket
that we just that we just saw work right
um and he's like fully conversent in the
in you know completely conversent in
that and he he and the engineers fix
whatever the problem is that week with
the rocket he's like all right now we're
going to go fix the you know the
database you know here at Twitter um and
and so he it's just like rinse and
repeat rinse and repeat rinse and repeat
do that every single week um I I once
offered him I once offered him a place
where I thought he might want to take
you know I like I know you're under a
lot of pressure go go to this place for
a week if you want because he famously
doesn't own any house he he sold all his
houses he doesn't own any houses so he
stays at friends houses so I was like
you can go use my house for a week and
if you need a vacation you can go use my
house for a week I got back five minutes
later one line I don't take vacations
like I'm gonna frame an bronze that
email right um and so this is what he
does and he just does this at like an
incredible ha rate of speed he doesn't
tolerate anything that stands in the way
of it this D and this by the way this is
the same thing that drives everybody
crazy right and so this was the whole
thing on the you know this is this whole
thing he's in this you know big fight
with with Regulators on like Starship
launches which is like you know a normal
rocket company would take whatever you
know a decade or 20 years to design a
new rocket you know he's he's going to
put out the Prototype as fast he can
he's going to laun it and see what
happens
you know he's GNA it's going to explode
in midair there's there's my my
nine-year-old and I love watching the
SpaceX rocket explosion compilation
videos on YouTube they're hysterical
because they just show these larger and
larger and larger Rockets launching and
exploding in midair and his competitors
all the way SpaceX all the way SpaceX
was on its way up his competitors are
like he's crazy he can't make rockets
work see they're all exploding and what
he was doing was he was iterating on the
rocket design so much faster than they
were and so he would run through five
rocket generations of which four would
fail but he would learn so much that the
fifth one would work and he would go
through the five generations faster than
his rocket competitors could do one
generation and he's just like he just
like it I don't care like of course
some Rockets are going to explode
nobody's goingon to get hurt it's
totally fine you know but a big company
can't tolerate that because it's like
headline news and everybody's going to
get mad yeah and so anyway it's just
like this completely base level reality
it's he calls it first principles you
just you get straight to base level
reality you get straight to substance
you spend no time on anything other than
substance and so so anyway like if if if
you if you know like me if you're an
engineer and you kind of see this you
know I'm by training and so if you kind
of see this you're like oh my God this
is like obviously the way that
everything should be run but if you see
it from the outside it just looks so
wild compared to all of these other
large systems and rules that we've all
gotten used to and and and and and and
and therein lies the
conflict what do you so there's a lot of
engineers in the world and none of them
are having the kind of success that Elon
is having how much credit do you give to
uh the the bundle of traits that he must
have you've already talked about several
of them just uh getting to first
principal thinking moving very quickly
but there's also something that seems I
don't know him never met him but by
things that I have read one of the early
biographies there's just a level of this
is not emotional for me at all it's uh
the your assistant asks for this was in
the original one of the original
biographies on him assistant asks for
higher pay or something he's like take a
vacation for four weeks I'm going to do
your job and see how hard it is if it's
hard cool I'll give you a raise and if
it's not you're gone
and she'd been with him for like 15
years or something crazy and she comes
back and he's like yeah it wasn't that
hard bye and uh people were Gob smacked
by that and I was like yeah I get it I
get it how much is there something to
that like is sort of you know if that
were your friend and your friend treated
you like that it would not feel good um
but in terms of proportion of his
success his ability to just completely
divorce emotion and just say this is
either right or wrong for the project
yeah look I think there's a lot to that
um you know um by the way I think Steve
Jobs had a lot of that it's just it's
it's you know I mean there's a lot of
ways to look at it um and you know
people can have lots of views on this of
course but you
know substance you was the dichotomy
substance versus style um or substance
versus social or you know substance
versus protocol like it's so easy to
slide into a way of thinking and being
which you are um thinking abstractly
about things you are follow we talked
about the go you're following rules that
were established years
ago most most big companies are what
most big companies are you so our
companies started startups and then
basically what happens is generally what
happens is as they either fail or they
succeed if they fail they go away if
they succeed what happens is they
succeed by going through basically
scandal after SC you know crisis after
crisis after crisis I always I always
describe it's like a process of like
falling upstairs you just like
constantly fall anding face into the
stairs but you're gain altitude as you
go and it's just like these companies
are just constant internal crisis um and
and the sort of normal response and by
the way it's the thing that everybody in
business is trained to do it's what they
train you to do at Harvard Business
School and Stanford Business School and
all the books that they all the books
and all this stuff all the CEO coaches
it's like oh that you know you go
through a crisis you fix the crisis and
then you put in place a set of rules to
make sure that crisis never happens
again right it's like the law the legal
thing we're talking about it's like okay
that that by itself would be fine but
you do that 20 times over 20 years and
you have buried a company in bureaucracy
to the point where it just basically
right at that point it's it's a company
primarily that exists to follow rules by
the way rules that were in many cases
defined by people who aren't even there
at the company anymore and so nobody at
the company today actually even
understands why they were there to Toby
luki has a version of this the guy who
runs Shopify who's an amazing CEO he has
a version of this which is it's like
every what every year or something or
every six months he just can't he
requires all standing meetings to be
canel taken off people's calendars and
so all management use one-on On's
planning meetings like everything just
gets taken off and then he says we only
put the meetings back on where people
are howling in pain because we don't
have them right but but you have to do
but his point is and you have to do that
over and over and over again because if
you don't everybody's calendar just
Creet meetings and then everybody's
sitting in meetings all day long and
nobody's doing anything right and of
course anybody listening to this who
works at a big company knows exactly
what I'm talking about because that's
the day-to-day life which is oh my God
you know um I I I worked at IBM I worked
on the other I I've seen the other side
of this so my first real professional
experience was I was an intern at IBM in
1989 and 1990 when they were on top of
the world they in as late as 1985 IBM
was 80% of the market capitalization of
the entire tech industry they were they
were they were a giant they were like
you know Fang combined into one company
they were like totally dominant I was
there 1989 90 right before they
basically fell off a cliff and and and
caved in and so and so it had been 70
years of success no they had never had a
layoff every by the way lifetime
employment there were entire buildings
full of people there who did not have
actual jobs because you could
God oh let me tell the story so I got
TBM and my manager is kind of showing me
around and you know I'm in this giant
division in Austin building these sort
of at the time what called workstations
these supercomputers basically um and
he's like yeah he's like look here's how
it works he's like we we we're the
development we're development and we
have the development building and we
have like 6,000 people doing development
of the product um and then and then they
have what that's called they they call
marketing but everybody else calls sales
which is the the people who go sell the
product and then he's like and then that
building over there is is the planning
department um uh and I was like oh I get
it you know in development we up with
ideas and then we work with the planning
department to have the plans to be able
to do it and he's like no we never talk
to them we will never visit that
building because that's the department
that we assign people to when we can't
fire them right and
so right by the way this is how of
course public school systems work you
know the the public New York Public
School System famously has I think what
they call the rubber room which is it's
it's the it's it's the place they send
the the teachers who are so terrible
they can't put them in a classroom but
they can't fire them and so they just
have them sit and they do cross puzzles
all day right it's the long shoremen who
are sitting at home right so so anyway
so big companies develop their their own
version of this um and and it just and
and and it accretes um by by the time I
got to IBM two things number one I there
was an app that they had that showed me
the number of reporting the number of
manager layers to be get to be the CEO
so if I stayed at IBM and I want to
become the CEO how many layers would I
have to climb and I was 12 layers below
the
CEO right which meant that my boss's
bosses bosses boss's boss who was like
the big cheese was still six layers
down so so there was that but the other
part of it was they had a formal process
of decision making they called
concurrence um and concurrence was if
you're going to make a decision at IBM
in those days you had to make a formal
list of every person in the company who
was going to be affected by the decision
like every manager every function and
for any sort of product related decision
that was like 35 names on the checklist
and it was like you know the sales heads
of all the different regions and all all
all this stuff and and and to make the
to be able to get to a yes on the
decision you had to get concurrence from
every single person on that list any one
person on that list could say the term I
dis was it DEC concur I DEC concur was
the internal term and DEC concur meant
veto and so you needed 35 people to
agree and any one person could veto a
decision right and so so so decision-
making just simply stopped and this is
why the company fell apart is because
they couldn't make they couldn't adapt
because they couldn't make decisions
right they they literally couldn't act
and and they had 440,000 employees right
oh my God on so on an on a on a on a on
a time adjusted basis bis for the growth
of the market it's it was like
equivalent of today would be a million
or a million two employees something
like that so it's like a nation state
way this is the other thing is at IBM in
those days I in those days you could be
you could work there for years and you
could never you could you could work
there for years and you would never meet
anybody either at work or in your social
life who didn't work for
IBM right because it was so big right
and so all of your friends so everybody
worked at the same company the the
metric the thing I always look at when I
visit big companies is I always look for
the signs um the signs in the parking
area and the signs in the buildings um
because everybody who works at the
company knows where everything is and so
they don't rely on signs and so when you
go to a big company and there's no signs
for what the buildings do it's a sure
sign that they're losing touch with the
market because it means they don't get
visitors interesting right because
they're completely insular um right and
so anyway so this is the natural
trajectory for all these companies just
to end up in this state and and and and
that's and that's the polar opposite of
the Elon method like th those that the
barbell now to your point your example
on the assistant like what so the big
question is why aren't there more El and
how do you make more El the second
question is can you have a part of an
can you have a partial Elon and so so
one of one of the ways I describe this
is um is there a unit of metric which is
uh
milons right um you know like
millimeters right um so could you have
like 900 milons like could you have 90%
of Elon but maybe not 100% or could you
have the 50% version or the 10% version
or maybe just the one mill Elon right
maybe somebody who's just a little bit
more like that right it's your question
like do you need the whole package or
can people learn these techniques and
and be this way even if they're not Elon
even if they don't have his natural
capacities and even if they're not
willing to go all the way to where he
goes can they go part way there and I
actually think that's an open question
today and and there there I would say
there are shockingly few CEOs I know who
are even asking that question or trying
to figure it
out now in theory in theory in theory
like if you've got one in theory you
should be able to have a thousand I
there's a lot of smart people in the
world like and and so this so here's the
other example is what would it do for a
civilization if we had a thousand of
them yeah I mean at the rate that he's
producing now a lot a lot and what would
what would happen in our civilization if
every single industry had an
Elon right and so like it's legitimately
insane yeah so that that possibility
exists like you you can see it right um
you know so it like find that very I
find that very exciting very
optimistic I I don't know if it'll go
but I think that's one of the really big
questions in front of us right now yeah
no doubt be interesting to see if
anybody can pull those principles out uh
in a way that's metabolizable by um
other entrepreneurs the
economy did we just dodge a recession uh
does debt make the recession inevitable
and we just Kick the Can a little bit
down the road what's your health check
on the economy right now yeah so the way
I think okay so let me give you a couple
things on this um so number one I
differentiate between the United States
and
America I think they're two different
concepts say more um I think the United
States is the system it's the formal
governance system so it's the government
and all the stuff we've been talking
about it's all the rules and all the
processes and all the procedures and we
all complaint you know we all have our
various complaints about it and you know
whoever we are in the political spectr
we've got all kinds of complaints about
the government um but then there's
America and for me America is the people
right um and you know they're part and
parcel the government and the people are
kind of part and parcel of a country but
like they are different they're not
they're not the same thing um and you
know we happen to be a very large
country with a very large number of very
smart talented you know driven capable
people um and then I you know I'd also
say my my my mental model of America is
like we're just like a giant sprawling
mess like you know we're just you know
we're just like chaos like and we have
been you know for our entire 250 year
existence like we're the place people
come when they're just like too orary to
start out where they were you know they
just can't tolerate it and so we you
know we get the most disagre able people
from all over the world who come here
because they get to you know they get to
basically be wild they get to do things
that they wouldn't normally get to you
know get to do and I of course I benefit
from that because you know that's we get
all the we get so many of the good
Founders from all over the world who
come here to do it because they don't
think they can do it in the countries
where they grew up um and so we're we're
we are America is a country of like
tremendously talented driven capable
ambitious people from all by the way
from all over the world who have
aggregated here and their descendants
over many generations and you know we've
just we've selected ourselves into the
best we've dealt the best possible hand
in terms of the quality of our people
like you know it's just extraordinary
what this country is capable of and and
then most of what the country does is
not done by the United States it's not B
by the government most of it's done by
the people most of it's done by by
America um and you know you know it's
the old line of the business of America
is business um which is this this uh
this this old line from the 50s it's
just like most of what most people do
every day is they go to work and they
try to they try to do things you know
they try to do things they try to
contribute they try to take care of
their family they try to you know build
their companies um they try to do a good
job you know they try to build good
products um they try to take care of
customers and so um you know most of
what people do every day is actually
really productive and and and really
helpful and then we're just the best
ranked by that we're just the best we're
the best country like we're we have the
best combin you know we have the sort of
we have the sort of rule of law of like
an advanced Society um but we have less
rules than like the European countries
for example um and then we have like all
the energy of a new country um right um
because of all immigration and because
of all the talented people that we have
and so you know we're kind of the we're
kind of at The Sweet Spot of sort of a
combination you know Big Country small
country Old Country new country like
we're kind of in that we're kind of in
that sweet spot and so I go through that
to just say like America wants to grow
right the America the country the people
we want to grow we want to succeed we
want to build great things we want to
build businesses we want to we want to
have economic growth we want to have you
know we want to we want to just like
Shock the World with all these Amazing
Inventions like we we want to do all
these things we are held back in all
kinds of ways by the United States but
America wants to do that and so
basically if the government isn't too
much on our throats the economy will
naturally just grow forever it it'll it
it'll just grow in perpetuity in America
will remain the best bet you know
globally it'll just be the you know it's
the it will remain the best Market to
invest in it'll remain it'll produce the
best you know the largest number of high
quality new companies and so forth um
and so the theer the American economy
wants to grow and that and that's what's
happened which is you know we came out
of Co and if you just like plot a chart
of you know American economic growth
versus you know Europe and other
countries it's just you know there we
are We're Off to the Races and you know
Germany's like you know starting to
shrink you know and you know the you
know UK St you know a bunch of other
countries like have severe problems
they're not able to reignite growth the
new UK labor government just had the the
labor government just had a growth
conference this week because it's now
hit such a crisis point in the UK they
don't know how to get economic growth
and so yeah our economy wants to grow it
wants to it wants to do fine yeah we
probably did we probably did Dodge a
recession and that's just because the
productive energies of the American
people just you know kicked in um you
know it's it's it's all completely
unpredictable from from here but like
you know fundamentally I feel really
good about I feel really good about
America I feel really good about the the
the the people and I feel really good
about the engine that we have I believe
that uh I forget who said it I actually
think you know because I've heard you
talk about this but inside of all of us
is a god-shaped hole and that whole
right now I think is having a Resurgence
of people really trying to re-embrace
religion uh from an interesting angle
that's probably outside of of today's
purview what we're going to talk about
but uh they have a need to fill that and
you're going to get the question of the
Soul so what's going to happen is you're
going to get somebody like me who
doesn't have kids and I'm going to raise
an AI child that is embodied because why
not I can rush through the terrible twos
uh I can pause when they're seven years
old for a couple years and just enjoy
that whatever I can if I want to go to a
movie with my wife I can literally put
them in the kitchen and shut them down
like it's just all of the upside and
none of the downside and then all of the
sudden other people going to be like
yeah that's dope and people are either
going to be in relationships with robots
uh romantically or they're going to be
in a romantic relationship with a human
but they're going to raise AI kids and
you will literally at least for
Pockets because there will be like the
Amish or whatever there would be the
sort of super producers who keep their
fertility High because cultural value
says yes there will be some that won't
and so those cultures will hit an
existential crisis based on that which I
think will cause the religious element
to really push and say you know this is
an Abomination before God and we just
absolutely cannot do it um so that's
where I feel like huh there's going to
be this weird tension and then if people
are getting augmented with neuralink and
obviously I'm talking these are 20y year
time Horizons maybe 30 maybe 50 but this
is going to play out for somebody in the
not too distant future in my estimation
and just to put one more thing in the
mix you know very well that in back room
conversations in the government people
are asking questions should we be
prepared to do air strikes on data
centers because we are so worried about
AI Breaking Free so there's already
already this ambient anxiety about it
you've got me talking like a Sci-Fi
writer but it's it's a pretty plausible
scenario
um how how do we stop that from
happening or what is the automatic in
the human mind kill switch that will
stop that from
happening so so start by saying there's
a lot in there and I would love to talk
about every part of it um and by the way
we should go as deep as deep as you want
with me anyway on on the on the religion
stuff and so forth because I I I agree
with a lot of the I agree with a lot of
the setup to the to the question um so
let's see how to come at this so well
look to start with I would say we have a
crisis of meaning already right um and
so you talk about like pop you know
talking about fertility right you know
elon's been talking about this a lot
lately but like fertility rates are
crashing all over the world right and
it's actually really striking what's
happening right which is it's happening
across cultures right um and so normally
you normally when there's like something
happening you know America or whatever
Europe or Japan or something like you
you generally analyze and you're like
okay what's happening in American
culture that's causing this or what's
happening in Japanese culture that
causes this but like it's it's happening
in all those cultures simultaneously is
population CR growth is crashing here
it's crashing in Europe it's crashing in
Korea it's crashing in Japan it's
crashing in China and by the way like
you know China Japan and Korea have very
different cultures than we do and they
have very different cultures between
each other like they're they're really
different like the Japanese and Koreans
are like really different um and yet
it's happening in in all these sort of
advanced societies and so I guess I
would say it's like we that's sort of a
pre-existing condition um you know we we
just have that um and so that and that's
sort of a fundamental you know
fundamental question we have this you
know this question of meaning um right
which you know the god-shaped hole which
is you know a process that kicked off
you know probably you know basically
like 150 years ago that you know has
been has been playing out and you know
people have been grappling with that for
a long time and you know as you know
we've been through various phases of
religious revivals you know boom boom
bus Cycles with religions over the last
over the last 100 years when when I I
was growing up in the midwest in the 70s
and ' 80s during the one of the Great
ing so the you know sort of comeback of
Evangelical Christianity and you know
kind of born the born again you know
kind of phenomenon so remember it well
you know I've SE I've seen that happened
um yeah so like you know I think that's
all true that's all super important um
you know and then look like you know
Tech is you know Tech obviously changes
culture uh cult by the way culture
changes Tech it's a you know it's a
positive uh feedback loop different
cultures you know react a tech in
different ways let's see where to take
it um I think the counterargument you
know maybe the leash to put on it and I
guess maybe I should start with if you
don't mind me asking do you have kids
yet I don't no yeah so one of the things
um that I I to say one of the things I
find in my conversations with my friends
who who don't have kids and then have
kids that that that I went through um
and it's a little bit it's almost like a
little bit I have these conversations
with my k with my friends you know I
work in Tech and a lot of people don't
have kids or they wait for a long time
um and I have this conversation where
it's like the people with kids sound
like pod people um you know they they
they sound like they got the brain
fungus in you know the in The Last of Us
or something right it's it's like oh you
don't understand when you have a kid
Everything Changes right and and my like
friends are like you know like what
happened to you like what's wrong you
know you sound like you're in a cult and
I'm like no no you don't and and it's
literally like that was me before I had
my first kid right was like oh I I just
whatever like I want to live my life I
don't know whether I want this
additional responsibility but like
basically I I think this is true it's
almost Universal thing if you talk to
parents like when you have your first
kid and you look in the kid's eyes for
the first time and you know literally
what you see like you know look in the
best case scenario you know you you know
we've got a blend you know literally a
blending of DNA um and you know the
person you know you love most in the
world you know is combined with you and
then you know that you know the baby
shows up with these eyes and the eyes
look back at you and it's like looking
at yourself and it's like looking at the
person you love the most in the world
and it's like looking at this new Soul
all at the same time and like it's like
a it's like a it is it's like a
psychological reset um and so that's
just that's like such a PR it's it's it
seems so Universal that parents
understand that and non-parents don't
right in fact I have friends who are
like I don't know that I want to have
kids because it sounds like it changes
your psychology so much like I'm worried
it's going to ruin everything I like
about my life today and I'm like no no
it makes everything better and they're
like but you have to spend all your time
with a kid and I'm like yes but it's the
thing I want to do most in the world my
friends are like well that's not what I
want because I want to work all the time
and I'm like you're missing out it's
like you're you know you're brainwashed
and right so so that's like a you know
that's a thing um I mean look I I don't
I I I fully believe people are going to
have ai pets AI friends they're going to
have ai like all kinds of relationship
with AIS they'll have some form of proxy
children I I I totally buy that by the
way that will probably be based on their
information one of the things I think
like for example your your your your AI
you know kid is probably going to be a
version of you basically trained on on
on your own training data right uh well
so the the concept actually that's
that's starting to take off in the tech
world right now is What's called the
digital twin so it's not it's not the
digital kid it's the digital twin but
the idea is you know look like for
example I might I haven't done this yet
but I might do this which is like I'm
not available 247 but if I feed a
language model like everything I've ever
written and everything I've ever said
then maybe if like somebody we work with
has wants to ask me a question and it's
the middle of the night they can ask my
digital twin and they'll get back a
representative answer to what I would
say right and so like that that that's
starting to happen so yeah like I think
a lot of that stuff's going to happen
but the Primal relationship that you
have with another human being and that
could be another human being you're
related to or by the way just another
human being that you're not related to
like that there's a level I mean we are
very very very deeply wired to have
those relationships be the center of our
universe um and again like I said like
there's a big issue here which is people
aren't having kids um and so you know
that's not getting transmitted and
there's very big questions that kind of
come you know kind of kind of flow out
of that but it's it's just different
like it it it it it's just flat out
different when you have your first kid
um and and certainly you should have you
you you should have like a dozen kids um
um they'd be great um uh I'm pretty sure
like if we tape up if we tape a show
after that like two years later you're
going to be like oh yeah I don't know
what I was thinking like this is just so
different and and maybe I do you think
that's the kill Swit which well let me
broaden out let me broaden out the
answer which is fundamentally technology
AI all this like it it has implications
on lots of things for sure but one of
the things that it does is it makes us
it makes us richer like it makes our
society richer it makes it makes our
material Comfort a lot better makes it a
lot easier to by the way to provide for
kids and family be able to have a higher
level of material welfare
um there's this line of critique of new
technology which is like well material
welfare is not sufficient because it
still leaves this God shaped hole but
the way I think about it is at higher
levels of material Comfort we have
better shot at figuring out the answer
to the god-shaped hole like would we if
you're going to be confronted with
existential questions about religion and
philosophy and how to live your life
would you rather do that with material
deprivation or with material plenty and
it's really easy for people to say that
they would prefer to you know it's like
you know would you rather be a monk with
a straw mat on the floor right eating
bread and water trying to figure out the
meaning of life or would you rather be
you with like a nice like fluffy bed and
like air iing and like you know Aral you
know cheese you know from Whole Foods
like like you I love that that's the one
you pick you you'd much rather be you
like of course like I'm gonna have a
much better chance at figuring out the
important questions in life if I'm not
worried about where my next meal comes
from if I'm not worried whether the
power is going to go out if I'm not
worried that it's going I'm going to
freeze to death overnight if I'm not
worried that my kid is not going to have
access to a needle Nal incubator that
have to worry about where my you know
income's coming from like of course with
material plenty I'm going to have a lot
more capacity uh to answer the Deep
questions um and so I I think that's
that's the going to be the unanticipated
payoff which is as technology and as AI
makes the world materially better
off I believe it increases our ability
to address these big questions not not
decrease
it yeah so I'll agree with you there um
but there's one division that I'm going
to make which is I'm the reason that
religion is so impactful is because it
addresses uh every
intellectual every person on the
intellectual Spectrum so when um I went
through a phase where I was trying to
explain to people hey think like this
act like this it will make your life
better these ideas just radically
changed me um and I found that largely
because as people age they're just not
able to be as um intellectually Nimble
but you also run into uh the reality
that some people do not have the
intellectual horsepower whenever I talk
about this I want to remind people it's
entirely possible I fall below the line
I'm perfectly willing to accept that but
you have to understand that there are
dumb people that cannot process
some of these ideas and so religion
becomes this catchall for hey this is
how you live a good life and it will
speak to highly intelligent people and
it will speak to people who are just
going to follow the ten commandments I
mean the Ten Commandments are basically
the Bible's tldr right so it's like hey
don't worry about reading that just hear
the 10 things go do these 10 things and
you're going to be fine done in a story
format and so it really speaks to people
so I don't think the sort of
intellectual approach to hey this is why
AI is going to be great for you and in
the future it's going to solve all these
problems problems what's going to happen
as a punctuated moment I think on a long
enough timeline this is all great and
it's wonderful and it brings about an
age of abundance so but I'm talking
about the punctuated moment where people
start losing their jobs and they don't
want to make the transition people uh
get the sort of warmth and comfort from
religion they're being drawn back into
it I I don't know if the data will
support this exact statement but this
feels accurate uh that people are coming
back into religion and sort of um
regionally uh um large numbers like
higher numbers than Regional I'm not
saying ever in human history but you
know locally um TimeWise and so we've
got this massive influx into religion
right now you've got this massive thing
that's going to disrupt all the things
that um religion is going to talk about
um taking care of people the soul a
connection to God the afterlife all
these things that um Ai and Robotics are
going to challenge and now I think you
have this of people that aren't able to
navigate intellectually the Nuance it
becomes problematic and and I think that
is going to have to be addressed now
let's take the super boring version of
this and it just plays out as regulatory
capture and the government's just like
nah my constituents don't want it it
gets mired it gets super bogged down um
and now everything gets caught up in red
tape and the thing that I can already
feel happening now where there's just so
much regulation that it's hard to move
forward at the rate we could say back
when I was a kid um that gets
exacerbated that's my sort of mundane
vision of how this plays out but I don't
see a world in which um it just all
happens in a sunny Rosy way do
you it's complic so look I'm I'm a te
techno Optimist not a techno utopian um
and so like I start by saying a couple
things which I don't think technology
like I I don't think technology like
answers all these questions right and so
I don't think technology for that matter
economic growth like give answers to to
to answers to most people for meaning
right um and so I don't think any of
this is a substitute for religion and so
I I like I like from that standpoint I
maybe have a little bit of humility just
on the on the scope of the importance of
of what we do out here um so and like I
said I think this I think you know even
in a world of technological abundance
and economic abundance material you know
welfare I think the you know the big
questions of meaning are still are still
open questions and so like I I you know
I will hesitate to make make sweeping
claims on that
um uh yeah I guess I just maybe the
other way to come at this maybe way to
think about this is I talk more about
the religion side so my my take on relig
like I I completely buy religious
revivals and I think we're actually in
quite a religious time right now um uh
which we should talk about um because
like for example I politics have become
like a branch of religion um you know we
we've we've you know we've invented a
whole series of secular religions in the
last 150 years um and we continue to do
that and so the the the sort of form and
shape of religions keeps playing out
even if they don't have you know you
know sort of supposedly Supernatural
kind of elements to them um and you know
I and I'm completely open to the idea of
like like I said I I live through a
fundamentalist religious revival I'm
completely open to more of those those
clearly are happening at various places
in the world um you know one of the yeah
so I will certainly Grant all that um
that said is we do like we moderns and
postmoderns like we don't relate to
religion the way that people did back
before our times so like the further go
back in history and for sure this is
like this was true like 150 years ago
back um the relationship that people had
with religion was different than they
have it today um and I going to way down
the rabbit hole in this but basically
for for most of recorded human history
religion was not an alart thing it was
something that was a very deep part of
who you were as a person um and and and
specifically they had the concept the
concept of peoplehood there was a people
and the people would have shared
genetics um all be related to each other
the people would have shared culture the
people would have a shared place right
you know their their own land um and
then they would have they would have
religion and those Concepts were all
conjoined there's this great book
there's a great book called the ancient
city that goes through basically the
prehistory of Western Civilization it
goes through the basically what are
called the old Indo European religions
and cultures you know that sort of
ultimately resulted in the Greeks and
the Romans and then in Christianity so
it's sort of the it goes all the way
back to the beginning of basically like
how Western Society is formed um and
it's basically three-part structure it
was family um it was tribe and then it
was city um and then the these concepts
of uh shared kinship genetics uh shared
culture shared religion and shared
geography were all conjoined and if you
told somebody in that era that you know
oh you can switch religions they would
have considered you completely insane um
because being of that religion with
those Gods was precisely tied to these
other factors of culture genetics uh and
place of course in in our society we
have completely disconnected those
things you know if I if I go out in
public today and I'm like no I'm a part
of a peoplehood where I have shared
genetics culture religion and place and
I'm going to have you know ethnostate
for German Dutch you know people in the
midwest like you know obviously I get
instantly tagged as a white supremacist
and like I get you know shunned an
ostracized from society by the way I'm
not proposing that I don't want that
just for the record um right and so we
live in a different time we we have
abstracted religion away from those
other things and and and kind of to your
point actually as a consequence of that
we can now choose our own religion right
and as a as a modern Westerner you or I
are completely free tomorrow to become a
you know Catholic or a Baptist or Jewish
or Muslim or whatever we want or by the
way to make up our own religions and by
the way prati and go try to get
followers and you know when we call
those Cults and people do that all the
time and we you know I would argue we
live in a world of Cults and we've got
all these new Cults out here in
California and you know some of them are
by the way super involved in AI so like
it's a thing um so but like religion
religion has become an alart it's like
the old Choose Your Own Adventure books
you might have had when you were kid
like you you can basically design the
religion that you want and so the on the
one hand you would say oh well then this
is going to be a time of tremendous
invention of religious Concepts um and
religious behaviors and I by the way and
I believe I believe that's true um I I I
do think that's happening um on the
other hand is this like okay is religion
going to control our lives in the way
that it did back when that concept was
conjoined with genetics culture in
place it's it's hard like we just don't
take religion that seriously anymore
we could choose to take it seriously
again if we want to but just
observationally we don't and and when it
when it becomes in when it becomes
inconvenient we change right I'll be I'm
going to run something by you tell me
how this lands I know you have a broad
historical context so um also being a
student of History I hesitate to say
this but um I have a hypothesis that the
religious impulse plays out at the same
volume no matter what it just becomes a
question of what is the religious
impulse aimed at so for instance as a
game developer uh I am constantly a
struck by how toxic the communities can
become and so I sat down one day and I
was like what on Earth is going on here
and I realized this is the religious
impulse that's being uh met by a video
game so you are communing with the other
players you are committing a ton of your
time to this you are giving yourself
over to this game you care about the
lore you care about the time that you've
invested into it I mean this is a level
of belonging to a game in a game
community that you would only have
gotten historically as a part of either
a town a family or a religion and so it
meets that criteria and so when you have
this sense of tremendous
belonging and you as the game developer
go in and mess with their thing and the
easiest way to explain it is imagine I
uh could go in and mess with the rules
of football without consulting anybody
and tomorrow you roll up and it's just
different and now the player that you
loved is no longer a good player and you
don't really like it anymore it doesn't
speak to your skill set people would be
outraged like my dad was into this team
my dad was into this game and I was
raised on it and now I'm here and and
you changed it in your trash and that's
basically what happens now if I'm right
that that's writing on the the
neurological uh architecture that makes
religion so powerful right it's like hey
that volume is still dialed to 11 now
hopefully nobody's going to go kill in
the name of their favorite video game
but I think that's a narrative question
and not a an architectural question so
if I were to get people to believe that
by investing in this video game like a
cult somehow meant something about you
and society and we were all fighting for
the you know insert now politics and you
get how suddenly with the right
narrative whoa like people will go and
that's another era I think people are
politics right now is triggering the
religious impulse so I don't think the
volume is dialed down even if we quote
unquote don't take religion as seriously
I think the outcome's going going to be
the same because this is an this is a
the architecture of the human mind yeah
so I 100% agree with everything you said
I just interpret the consequences of it
differently which
is Imagine
telling an Athenian Greek or a Roman or
a Christian in 300 ad or a Christian for
that matter in 1800 ad that you're now
religion is a video
game they would have thought you
completely lost your mind right like
wait a minute like you've now taken that
entire religious impulse which is every
bit as strong as it was and you've like
now applied it to video game like you're
you're like you have you have completely
disconnected the importance of religion
from
reality from like actual physical
reality like it no longer is relevant to
you in terms of like the shape and form
of any aspect of like your actual
anything in any traditional concept of
community City environment anything like
that family by the way does it guide
your decisions about like you know you
know things like reproduction children
um you know are you indoctrinating your
kids you by the way maybe you are maybe
you're indoctrinating your kids in World
of Warcraft but like indoctrinating your
kids in World of Warcraft is like that's
not the same as like indoctrinating your
kids in Catholicism like that's a World
of Warcraft it it may be very it's very
it may be equally intense but it's not
as comprehensive and an impact on the
worldview of how people live their lives
um and so I just I agree with you but I
just think that leads to like tremendous
amounts of of um of of displacement but
then also let me say I really agree with
your last point which is the politics
point which I think is something that is
extremely important because you
especially sitting here today three
weeks before you know very big election
um uh something that I often point to
when I talk to people about this um is
um if you look at the charts of uh you
know the big general population surveys
of would you be comfortable with your
kid marrying somebody of a different ex
um you know you know there's the famous
chart of A different race and you know
whatever 6 80 years ago that was like
90% uncomfortable today it's like 10% um
and falling um somebody of a different
um and then the another one would be the
the somebody of a different religion and
if you had pulled people 80 years ago
when when they pulled people on this
like Catholics Jews Protestants all were
like no way you know you're not marrying
outside the faith and today at least
like in the US very few people care and
so like that chart is like is like way
down the chart of do you care if your
kid marri somebody of the other Rel of
the other political party that chart is
up and to the right and so crazy right
and so to me that Maps exactly to what
you said um which is yeah so politics
has become our religion there was
actually a very
uh very important thinker writer in the
in the 20th century Eric vogan um and um
he he was he's the best writer I found
in this topic and he he he Bas and he
basically started he started his work
actually in the 30s and 40s um and he
was basically trying to explain at the
time uh the rise of both communism and
fascism um and he's like wow you know
these people are crazy like these people
are really extreme and then he's like
all right like what is leading you know
bullits on the one hand and like you
know Nazis on the other hand to be like
this you know sort of fevered
enthusiastic about these like incredible
you know these incredibly High you know
kind of impact social movements with all
these consequences um uh and so he he
basically developed a theory very
consistent what you said which is you
know which he called I think up you know
political religions um and he and he did
the mapping and basically said like
these are direct these are in fact
direct standing standings for religion
Christianity actually both Christianity
and Nazism sorry both communism and
Nazism were legendarily very hostile to
Christianity um you know precisely for
that reason because Christianity was was
was the threat they were you know quite
literally trying to
you know the dominant religion in Europe
at that time um and so you know again
like exactly you're right I think the
impulses with us I think many you know
both Republicans and Democrats in the US
today exhibit that EXA that exact same
kind of religious Behavior around their
politics um you know on the one hand it
can sound I think patronizing to say
that because you know people think that
their politics are all carefully thought
through they don't think they're doing
it but you know politics are important
to people in the same way that religious
religion is and was important to people
and so you know they there certainly
acting you know like like it and they
certainly point in their politics to how
political choices are going to affect
how people live which is very consistent
with the view of a religion um yeah and
so I think they're displacing that
religious energy into politics I think
if they displace that religious energy
into video game Cults like that's
probably an
improvement maybe maybe it's certainly
more benign I think for the reasons that
you said earlier so uh what does the
religious impulse done well look like so
there's obviously just funnel it into a
traditional religion that's lasted for
thousands of years probably going to be
fine um but given that a lot of people
are not doing that how can you do that
well yeah so I the anthropological view
of religion I think is it's about group
formation and cohesion right and this is
the RO in the Asian City to talk about
this like this is the role that religion
so the so so the original the original
form of this and sort of Cl sort of pre
prehistory the original form of this was
we've got the family um you know which
is like up basically cousins you know
it's basically the extended family up
through cousins um and and by the way
cousin marriage you marry your cousins
and so you try to keep you know the
family in the family um uh and then the
family has has its Gods um and then
youve you and then over time the
families aggregated the Clans aggregated
up into tribes which consisted of
multiple families and then the tribes
would have its Gods um and then the
tribes would aggregate up into the
cities um and the cities would have
their gods right and so as as the member
of a city you had three tiers of gods
that you basically were required to you
know basically to to to to worship and
and and to honor and you literally had
with the hear you had the fire you know
the permanent fire and you had to keep
the fire lit and and and sort of um you
know you do sacrifices to the gods and
so forth um and then the morality the
original morality of it was if you meet
somebody from another um uh uh you know
family tribe
City they worship different gods right
they have their own Gods and and so your
gods are inherently at war with their
gods and your moral obligation is to
kill them on
sight that's aggressive right which
literally right it was literally like
kill them on site so so had had you told
them had you told people from from that
era from from from those you know from
those many centuries you know no you're
supposed to be tolerant to people from
other religions they would have said are
you out of your mind they're a threat if
we don't kill them they're going to kill
us we kill them on site and so it was
like you know it's like the concept of
Human Rights is like 180 degree
Inversion from like the original form of
society by the way a big Improvement I
think but a very very big inversion um
and so like at a at at sort of the most
fundamental level so why do I go through
that at the fundamental level what's the
religion for it's for group cohesion why
did it work that way it's because that's
what maximally bonded the family the
tribe and the city together at a time
when physical survival was very much up
for grabs right like is the family the
tribe the city going to make it through
the year TBD is there going to be a
famine a flood a Mudslide you know a
volcano eruption is another tribe going
to come over and kill you are you going
to run out of food like those are all
very important questions you the entire
tribe you know City had to really pull
together for physical survival and so
religion was like the bonding element
that that that pulled together a group
and I and I would argue you you know
fast forward to today that's exactly the
behavior you see in video games right
which is you know it's not just an it's
not just a member of like a video game
cult is not just an individual they're
not acting as an individual they're
inevitably they're acting as a member of
a group right and and it's group
cohesion and then I also apply the
Jonathan height kind of theory here um
you know kind of coming from from
psychology which is um he has this great
great line he talks about in the book
The Righteous Mind where uh he says U he
uses the word morality but you can
basically equivalently I think use the
word religion uh he said morality binds
and blinds um which is to say a shared
morality or a shared religion it binds
people together into a group it you know
it identifies Us Versus Them friend
versus foe in in the way that it did
also in prehistory and then he said he
said and this is really important the
other part is it blinds uh it sets up a
a a a knowledge framework a perception
framework by which you emphasize
confirming information that's good for
your group and you dismiss disconfirming
information that's bad for your group
and you literally become blind right you
and to the to the point and you see this
today with Republican and Democrats
where a very you know generally the more
passionate the Republican or Democrat
the least the the less able they are to
articulate the other side's point of
view
correctly right the less able
fascinating right the less able they are
to steal man the other side's view which
means they're literally giving up on
psychological terms they're giving up
what's called theory of mind they're
they're they're giving up the ability to
understand what it's like in somebody
else's shoes because it's more important
to be a member of the group than it is
to be able to understand the other um
anyway so so this is all very much in
support of what you're saying like these
are very fundamental Primal Behavior
um I I think that they're they are very
important today uh in our society as
much as ever which you see in the
politics um and then you know I think
they're going to be equally important
you know hundreds of years from now
hopefully this impulse gets channeled in
productive
directions yeah yeah we'll see so Kaiu
Le has talked about how we're we could
experience up to 50% of job
displacement um it's not like there
won't be new jobs but you're going to
have a very substantive percentage of
people that are either just
temperamentally or agewise unwilling to
make a change societally how do we
handle that yeah so I don't I don't
think that's true at all so I I just
yeah yeah so that's the classic and in
in economics that's what's called the
lump of Labor fallacy so it's one of the
it's one it's one and by the way kfu is
a very bright guy so you know he may
well be right on this but what what any
Economist will tell you is is a fallacy
and it's actually a it's the fallacy at
the heart of Marxism at the heart of
socialism and it's it's a very intuitive
fallacy it's one that people fall into
very easily U it's called the lump of
Labor fallacy because and there's like
big great Wikipedia page on this people
can read um the lump of Labor fallacy
basically is there's a certain amount of
Labor being done in the world today
right and that labor is either going to
be done by people or it's going to be
done by machines um and if it's done by
people then they're going to make money
by doing it be able to provide for
themselves and it's done by machines
then the people are going to become
unemployed and they're going to be
screwed um and what's interesting about
this fallacy is this has been a fallacy
that literally has been place in
basically you know political thought um
and um you know sort of marxist economic
thought socialist economic thought for
like 300 years um the mark the marxists
really kind of packaged it up and turn
it into a turn it into a religion
actually um but um you know this is kind
of the the pervasive thing this this was
sort of the immediate kind of concern
panic at the very beginning of the
Industrial Revolution um which was you
were going to have machines that were
going to substitute for human labor that
were going to miserate everybody um this
actually is um sort of embedded in a lot
of myths and legends um that we you know
that we we kind of have in in our kind
of cultural DNA um there's a famous I if
you've heard about there used to be or
is a famous ballad song of this the myth
of this figure John Henry um and uh it's
it's it's kids are often taught this
song it's John Henry the steel driving
man um in the idea was it's it's the guy
it's the guy this is like you know this
would be like when the railroads are
getting built like so this is like the
guy who's like using a hammer to drive
spikes into the rail bed to to put
railroad tracks down which used to be
something people did by hand um and it
was this thing where you know one the
you know John Henry is like the famous
guy who can drive in the most spikes um
and then one day the foreman shows up
with the machine that drives in the
spikes and U there's the they have a
they have a contest where John Henry
competes with the machine who can drive
in most most spikes and it turns out
John Henry wins the contest and then
drops dead from a heart
attack some kind of symbolic you know
the LA the last gas of human effort
before the machines take over and and
that dates back to like I don't know
like 1870 right so that's like 150 years
ago people had this fear um and then
basically what we've had is we've had
300 years of modern technology
industrialization automation
computerization literally three
centuries now and sitting here today
there are more jobs than ever in the
world than ever um and and at higher
wages uh for people right and so in so
in practice what's happened is we now
have three centuries of evidence that
basically that's a fallacy that's
actually not what happens what happens
actually is the opposite uh which is
technology creates far more jobs than it
destroys and creates jobs that are
better right at higher levels of income
um and so people adopt those jobs like
are they going to be people just get
behind there will be some and look there
is some resp and I should also back up
for a second and say um conversations
about this topic it's very easy to come
across in my experience talking about
myself it's very easy to come across as
like judgmental and patronizing uh
because it's very easy to come across
basically saying you know basically so
like one of the things that I will claim
is that one of the things I will claim
and what we're about to talk about is
that there are some jobs that are better
than other jobs um some jobs are just
better jobs they're they're like you
know they're they're physically less
taxing you know they pay better you know
whatever but you know there may be a bar
to be able to get those jobs or people
may not want to do those jobs and so
people may get you know you can people
can get very resentful at the idea that
they have to give up if they have an
order for the prospect of something that
might be better but maybe they don't
want it and you know who who who are
these experts on TV or on the Internet
to tell them that they should think in
these terms so so I should start by
saying look like people are going to
have a lot of reactions people always
have look a lot of our politics for the
same 300 years have been around this
process of of industrial change and then
therefore um you know job change and you
know like you know this the rise of
unions and like there's all these things
that happen in our politics as a
consequence of these fights and so I
should just start by saying like you
need to be able to talk clinically about
this because you do need to be able to
talk about the big issues I do recognize
that it's very easy to come across this
patronizing I also recognize that people
are going to have different points of
view on this some people are going to
struggle some for sure you know look
when the when the car came along
blacksmiths were not happy right cuz
like all of a sudden you don't need as
many horses like they they were not
happy now many blacksmith became car
mechanics but you know know many black
Smiths maybe didn't want to become car
mechanics and got very upset and
resentful about that
so this yes all of the above is going to
happen having said that the basic
mechanism of introducing new technology
into an economy is not job destruction
the basic mechanism is job creation net
job creation overwhelming the job
destruction um and the reason for that
has to do with this concept of
productivity growth um and so the the
concept of productivity growth is very
important so the concept of productivity
growth is it's the economic measure of
the impact of technology uh in an
economy and basically what it means is
the ability to generate more output with
less input right um and so and you know
use the John Henry example can I can I
can I can I put more Nails in in the
road bed to build railroad tracks faster
right with at the same cost level um you
know can I build more cars at lower
prices can I you know provide you know
can I make more video games um you know
more video game levels at lower prices
like in in any industry there's always
this question of like how much am I
producing today and then can I produce
more output at lower cost it's what it's
what every business logically wants to
do right they want to expand output and
they want they want to reduce costs um
and so productivity growth is the metric
by which economists track the impact of
technology uh uh impacting the
environment and and this is very
important um the faster the rate of
productivity growth the faster the rate
of economic growth um the faster the
rate of productivity growth the more
prices of current goods and services in
the economy fall right because if you're
able to produce more with less then
prices come down right and so just take
food as an example like food today is is
far cheaper than it was 200 years ago
because of all the automation right and
so you know to buy an avocado you know
200 years ago would have cost you know
the modern day equivalent of you know
$100 you know and now it's and you know
and now it's a dollar right um and so so
productivity growth leads to to to to to
declines in prices declines in prices
lead to increase in spending power right
because if if as a consumer I pay less
for the things I'm already buying right
because of productivity growth then
spending power is being unlocked right
without me even getting a raise I have
new spending power um and then that new
spending power then leads to the
creation of new products services and
industries and jobs uh to fulfill that
that all of a sudden I I I can spend on
and so so what I'm describing is like
this is the basic mechanism of
technological adaptation of an economy
and it's a basic mechanism of economic
growth um and theories like like like
the one that you you mentioned um
theories by which the introduction of
technology has an AM miserating effect
as as compared to a cornucopian effect
historically have not played out well
because that that's not that's not
actually how this works which is why
which is why the Socialists are like
perpetually disappointed it's like it's
like every socialist is like super
pissed like all the time because
capitalism works so well like it's
really annoying right like that we live
in a time of material plenty after all
of this like runaway capitalism like
it's really in you know it's Boris
yelson in the American supermarket in
1991 just like completely shocked at how
like much food there is it's just like
you know they lied to us right like
the Communists lied to us right about
how to do this um anyway so like I we
can go into any aspect of this you want
to in detail but basically I I
completely convinced that's exactly
what's going to happen here if AI works
the way that we're imagining what's
going to happen is prodct productivity
growth is going to take off prices of
current goods and services are going to
fall volume is going to expand more
people in the world are going to be able
to buy all the things that they want to
buy but also it's going to unlock a lot
of new spending power that spending
power is then going to create demand for
new Industries right it's going to it's
going to unlock demand that we're going
to be able to satisfy by by by by
producing and buying many new things and
you know our our future digital children
AI children 100 years from now are
sitting here having we're going to have
a you know podcast saying can you can
you can you believe that our human
parents had this fallacy where they
didn't think that this was going to turn
out this way because like it always did
and it did again and so anyway so that's
why I'm so optimistic about this I I
love it for people that don't know you
um he wrote a document basically saying
technology is going to save us all that
he went through in detail on a lot of
these points very counterintuitive
coming out of the Bay Area for sure um
yeah please I wouldn't say it's going to
save us all so I would say I'm an
optimist not a utopian and so it goes
this I very important it goes back to
where we started which is I don't think
this everything I just describ does not
answer all of life's deep questions
right like it it it's not enough to just
have material welfare like I'm 100% on
that but like having material welfare is
better than not having material welfare
right and and it's the best starting
point to be able to answer the big
questions and so I just wanted to wanted
to qualify that I'm not I'm not I'm not
I I am actually myself not proposing a
new religion mark this has been
incredible where can people follow along
with you oh good uh so I am on uh
Twitter now called X um I am on there as
P Marque p m
RCA um that is probably one of my main
presences and then I have a substack um
which is linked to from the Twitter
account um and then we have a YouTube
channel um and my partner Ben and I have
a YouTube show uh that we do
intermittently um but we get good
feedback on so maybe we could link to
that awesome guys I can definitely vouch
for his content it is amazing I hope you
guys will check it out speaking of
things that I hope you will do if you
have not already be sure to subscribe
and until next time my friends be
legendary take care peace if you like
this conversation check out this episode
to learn more today we're going deep
into a conversation that has me
incredibly fired up we're talking about
our future your future my future the
future of humanity itself and we're
doing it with one of the most Visionary
minds and artificial intelligence emod
moac and we were like