Kind: captions
Language: en
today we're going deep into a
conversation that has me incredibly
fired up we're talking about our future
your future my future the future of
humanity itself and we're doing it with
one of the most Visionary Minds in
artificial intelligence emod moac and we
were like it's coming for Hollywood
you're in Los Angeles right yep is there
anyone in Hollywood that doesn't realize
that they're coming yes there still is
any here will there be anyone no emod is
a guy who's right at that edge building
AI models that are TR truly shaping the
future as AI becomes more integrated
into our lives we've got to ask a very
important question how do we navigate
this without losing what makes us human
how do you think that AI is going to
impact democracy I think voice is the
most impactful thing in terms of impact
negatively on Democracy okay so Trump
kissing Putin we can make that in two
seconds right it's not going to change
your mind whereas a recording of Oprah
and the Rock saying how Mara Harris's
nasty things that shared on WhatsApp
voice recording probably would actually
have a much bigger impact out further
Ado I bring you emod
[Music]
moac what percentage of the world's
population do you think robots and AI
are going to replace technically we seen
you dying out by not repopulating anyway
so maybe we'll end up all AI um but in
terms of the jobs to be done I think
that was it open AI along with the MIT
did a study of this probably 50% of all
tasks minimum as we have them today in
the next couple of decades and that's
kind of a bit constrained by how fast we
can build robots how fast can manual I
said we make like 80 million cars 70
million motorcycles I'd say probably in
five years we're up to that pace in
robots maybe more I mean like there's
been a lot of discussions around China
AGI and we must compete with them you
really want to compete in them and
robots to honest you think we need to
make
that a
mission well geost
strategically robots in the economy will
have as big like there's this let's say
that this is division AGI super
intelligence you know that's one thing
let's put that in its own box again how
many chefs do you need versus how many
cooks do you need what do you need for
human super human breakthroughs just
living your life and being better and
executing
well
right there are all the digital AIS but
again everything seems to be saturated
and open sources caught up with close
Source Etc but then physical
robots once you get a robot you're not
going to get another
one whereas I can switch from one
digital AI to another so if I'm thinking
of geost
strategically these robots will perate
every part of society where they coming
from if it's China I'm probably more
worried about that geost strategically
than I am
AGI or kind of whatever else because
they're
inevitable again you look at the cost
you look at the Quality you'll see with
the latest Optimus one again look at the
unitri G1 look at the figuro 2 they're
really good now and they will cost
10,000 they'll cost 100 bucks on
Mon and it's inevitable the wave coming
and where are they going to be
made whose intelligence they going to
have on them I think that is a very
important point you know because again
most human tasks are still physic
they're not digital we have to say that
anything that you can do on the other
side of a computer how can you tell a
computer from a human now it's really
tough like I've seen some of the things
like now with the video models the
speech models and everything they're all
real
time so like I could be an AI Avatar
with a level of technology that we have
I'm not he says you wouldn't be able to
tell the difference right now and so
again with all the mannerism it just get
better and better and better
I think eventually and I think this is
what the study said 50% at least um how
rapidly were those the 50% of Tas that
are going to get replaced how rapidly is
that going to
happen why do you need any call center
workers next year incremental
highes like again if you use a c head to
AI can't really tell it from a human now
so we look at it and we look industry by
industry first you stop offshor right
then you stop graduate hiring and then
it impacts the workers until then
there's a race condition whereby you're
just trying to have increased
productivity lower costs it depends on
the economic cycle as well but we're
already seeing um I think month or two
ago I saw that 38% of the current IIT
batch in India so IIT is like the top
Technological University in India still
don't have job basements if you're in
the Philippines what's happening to your
entire call center
industry when you have a 24/7 AI that
speaks perfect English and is really
calm and everything
right so I think it depends on by
industry and it's difficult to tell
because again different Industries will
have different adoption curves but I
think anything that's outsourced right
now that has to be in danger because
outsourced work tends to be lower
quality right then you've not low
quality it tends to be more content
creation shall we say like rot stuff
then it's The Graduate level labor and
then it's specialized labor and the
question is does new stuff emerge on the
other
side well it's interesting because I
would say specialized labor is also um
because you can train an AI to do
something if it's hyp specific as long
as it doesn't need to be embodied um
okay this feels like it would be
disruptive at any time but right now
certainly here in America we're adding a
trillion dollars in debt every 90 days
90 to 100 uh the economy is soft now I'm
giving you gut instinct I think we're
probably already in the middle of a
recession that has simply been
redefined uh so there's a sense already
of malaise certainly in young people job
market feels soft as somebody who does
hiring I feel I'm back in the position
uh let's call it 18 months 24 months ago
I very much felt like it was uh an
employee market and now feels like an
owner Market um so add on top of that
the fact that this is going to be
Happening Now how disruptive do you
think this is going to be to the economy
are we going to find ourselves um making
up for the all the crazy debt and
printing by this increased productivity
through Ai and robots but at the cost of
human malaise or how do you see that
playing
out Limon tough to figure out isn't it
like again it's the order of these
things so it's industry by industry like
you know we talked uh whe last podcast
were just over a year ago yeah and we
were like it's coming for Hollywood
you're in Los Angeles right yep is there
anyone in hollyw that doesn't realize
the coming yes there still is in year
will there be anyone
no and you look at the SAG afro and
other deals and they're awful like not
awful but they don't protect the
industry employees as they
should and so the cost of movies is
about to drop by an order of magnitude
roughly
but then what does that do to employment
in that particular industry when you
have full control over every aspect of
the entire production process
digitally but when does that happen a
couple of years you know whereas
something like replacing uh truck
drivers in America millions of people
employed on the city to City stuff maybe
years because you know like again
how are they going to retrain what are
they going to do but I think it comes in
wayes it's just very difficult to tell
aggregate because there's a question
what doesn't this impact your
hairdresser and again I think McKenzie
or someone did a study of what doesn't
it impact there's very few things it
doesn't impact especially with the
embodied side and the embodied side
again is going to ramp up as
aggressively as we've seen in the GPU
side GPU side like you've had 10
hundreds of billions of dollars of
investment now on these data centers and
supercomputers and Donald Trump's
talking about how the US already has
half the energy it needs so we should
build more nuclear reactors and we like
the air so because there's a imperative
to bring on board the digital technology
and it's getting basically free and then
there'll be this physical and body
technology it all depend on how fast We
R that and then like industry to
Industry is just different like a
specialized example
paralegals every lawyer I've talked to
senior lawyers like well we need less
par legals
now well of course you just need to have
one power legal to organize your AIS
right all right let me paint a picture
for you let me know what you think about
this so um the way that I think that
this is going to play out is
um you're going to see a softening of
the job market that on top of all the
money printing we've already done you're
going to run into a problem so you're
not going to be able to print your way
out of this or if they're that stupid
and they try then you're going to really
run to inflation but let's assume that
they don't make that stupid mistake so
you see a softening of the job market
you're going to see people wanting to
make big asks of the government to make
things better because they they're not
feeling good they feel hopeless they
feel lost uh that's demagogue territory
somebody that comes in tells you why
your life sucks tells you how they're
going to make it better uh problem is
that because of all the Deep fakes
they're going to um interfere with the
election people are not going to be able
to tell what's real what's not real um
and now you're going to have both a
populace that wants something
desperately from their government and
they're not going to realize the depths
to which they're being manipulated and
people already believe that the game is
rigged neither side is going to believe
the election here in America uh so this
feels like this perfect storm of AI hit
deep fake before we have put constraints
in it to tell us what's real and what's
not um right at this really critical
election I have a feeling
um I will be surprised if there aren't
pockets of violence a at or after the
election I won't go so far as to say
that you know it breaks out into Civil
War but I think that there will be
pockets of violence um does that read
seem crazy to you I don't think so
honestly so as some background I used to
be an Emerging Markets hedge fund
manager so I covered lots of coups and
Civil Wars and other things like that
right in the face of things I think what
you see is
America Mar American controversy be know
a lot
is kind of not apathy people are giving
up rather than getting angry I think the
anger will come especially if you have
another economic Smash and said the
buying Powers Dro 10% Etc but like you
look at the polarity of trump Biden
Harris Etc poly market and other things
on prediction America's structures at
the moment are stable but the question
is do they crack like Japan has 500% jet
to
GDP and a few weeks ago they increased
interest rates for 0.25% which meant
their entire tax base basically is
interest payments and the stock market
dropped what was it 12% in a
day biggest ever Japan tobacco dropped
18% Nintendo dropped 18% everyone's like
this is the end of the world next day it
bounced
back and actually made up all the losses
that was a bit weird and a bit crazy
right I think that if you kind of look
where things are now this technology is
coming and again we're at the Forefront
of this technology and we're using it
every day so we can see it but it hasn't
permeated yet the economic recession is
coming but it's not a depression yet but
it's like the hits will keep on coming
and this is the danger that we have
right
right now what's happened is you said
it's now a buyer market for jobs but
what you expect for the people that you
hire has to be more you know I'm
expecting more from you because now I'm
a buyer I can buy you know all skills on
the market but what do you know about AI
because we use it in every part of our
business
right and one person can do the job of
three or four people before and that's
just going to accelerate and so I think
that starts hitting next year the year
after I think you see things like deep
fakes but again people get normalized
they can go on Gro on Twitter and they
can just generate anything and you know
it's getting photo
realistic but deep fake voice is
incredibly persuasive like you know I
get calls from my mom saying send me
money not because she's hard up because
someone's voice cloned her and that's
because I'm pervasive now I'm in trouble
send me money they just need 11 seconds
of your voice you look at things like um
the Republicans in America America have
taken over a lot of the radio stations
or republican leaning owners shall we
say applying voice technology that
overlays the most convincing speakers in
the
world Barack Obama here Winston
Churchill here you know like JFK onto
talk show hosts make them even more
resonant and people listening to that
every day on work that's what's going to
change a lot the polarity but you look
at again the demagogues like what does a
Donald Trump or a DMP or any of these
parties or brexit what they're all about
they're just it's a referenda on are you
happy with the system the way it is
we're going to drain the swamp we're
going to affect
change and so this comes down to are
people happy with the way things are but
I think violence is a different thing
which is kind of it's a systematic
perpetuation where the anger raises to
such a level that people Express
themselves and becomes a bit of a
movement right
um and I just don't feel that the US is
there I could be wrong you know um to
have to worry about that now but I do
worry in the future as you said
because what's the other side of this
the other side is only if we really
embrace the technology to drive real
meaningful change increase transparency
increase
trust but it doesn't feel like there's
any emphasis to that in America for
example like there's going to be massive
regulatory resistance to implement this
technology anywhere in the US whereas I
look at the global South and they were
like bring us this technology we will
embrace it immediately right even in
like incredibly corrupt regimes because
they're like this is our growth engine
that we need as the West stumbles and
suffers from deflation potentially can't
money print its way out
anymore why the difference so I get why
the global South would use it I don't
understand why we
wouldn't um like when I was see so use
context so stability AI I was found CEO
of we created the most popular open
source models in the world from image to
video to I think 300 million downloads
um by
developers I talked to every US agency
my God it was
like all the time and in Europe
regulation was kind of they pushed
regulation that's stupid and so it's
going to be a slow down there but in the
US there's a large amount of Regulation
push back against any type of AI like in
California uh there's the s1047
bill that's been pushed back a lot that
would have banned almost all types of
AI because if you made an AI system
you'd be responsible for any bad use of
the AI so itated
back so and VAR Horwitz and a lot of the
other T tech people had massive
campaigns against that particular piece
of legislation it kind of Echoes the
crypto
legislation you know like there's no
issue like 98% of crypto is rubbish and
we let the scammers in and it should be
about trust and incorruptibility but
instead it became about that but at the
same time there's still no regulatory
framework and you're seeing this um
Republican versus Democrat thing where
it's like Democrats don't want to
regulation framewor Republicans now are
do there's still no proper regulatory
framework for AI and that's because the
bureaucracy moves slow because it's
vested interest because of regulatory
capture and other things like that so
this is why the US is very difficult to
navigate from an AI
perspective um compared to many other
countries but not as bad as Europe
Europe is the West how do you think that
AI is going to impact
democracy so how much does the average
person believe what they see because we
have this deep fake discussion I think
imagery will be minimally impactful but
individualized agents calling you and
convincing you talking like a grandma
like this canvasing that's very
impactful I think voice is the most
impactful thing in terms of to impact
negatively on democracy you know the
speed of the memes emerging like uh
let's take a practical
example um Biden steps aside and we all
knew that he was going to have to after
that debate performance memes on Harris
start
emerging and all of a sudden she's
considered incredibly reliable and solid
and everything like that it's a massive
coordinated campaign that takes her
right back even with Donald Trump who
just been shot a few weeks before right
now I think that
AI actually did have a part to play in
that because again I saw this is much
more coordinated than we've seen before
and narrative creation it's going to be
the systematic thing with localization
and other things that's an arms race but
again party allegiances change slowly I
think that the flip side will be the
increased transparency and Trust in the
system if we can implement this AI
correctly because things like bills and
policy positions are all open so like
yeah maybe I'll just do it maybe I'll
build an AI system that just analyzes
the positions of every single politician
and Bill that comes in the US
deconstructs it and then you can say
your context and it'll personalize it
for
you because I can do that but so can
many others but no one's doing it but it
should be done and so if we start
introducing things like that they'll be
impactful um things like citizen
assemblies if you take a group of
citizens like a
jury and you inform them and you take
like two days out and you actually
inform them about topics properly and
let them have a proper discussion you'll
find far better outcomes and there are
again studies that show this and now
with theyi we can capture everything
they've said and how they adapt and you
can actually have representative
democracy where we can have citizen
assemblies feeding up where you can
remove a lot of the CFT of all these
bureaucracies and other things so I
think those things can enable true
democracy versus this electoral register
weird hybrid system that we've got today
whereby I don't know how many people
really believe that they are represented
or believe in their
representatives you know I think that's
shown in turnout numbers and
more like this is shown by the
popularity ratings of Congress and
Senate and the UK
Parliament and again I think mostly it's
reflected in this do I believe in the
American dream do I believe in the
British dream I'm having taxation am I
having
representation my AI should repres sent
me and my group and my community and my
Society right or at least you should
check it first I think we'll see that
again in a lot of regulated Industries
AI is the counterbalance Checker
particularly where the information is
public like in government and then
eventually it will seep into everything
the interim period though could be very
very messy because our systems are not
prepared for infinite content and
customization but like I said I'm not
too worried about like okay so Trump
kissing Putin we can make that in two
seconds right it's not going to change
your
mind whereas a recording of Oprah
and the Rock saying
how Tamala Harris is nasty things that
shared on WhatsApp voice recording
probably would actually have a much
bigger impact yeah so um this to me
feels like you are more more sedate in
the face of looking at the difficulties
than I am so uh I think manipulation is
basically the whole game so nobody loves
AI more than me nobody is more eager to
put it into play than I am we're working
fishlyn about the ways that the it just
seems self-evident if we don't protect
ourselves against the following things
we are in real trouble so I think that
uh if you think about just the way
algorithms are used on social media the
way that the AI will figure out what
keeps you engaged the most it will show
you comments not just what you see in
your feed but the actual comments are in
a different order for you different
people are promoted or buried then for
the next person and so we start living
in these really siloed worlds um AI at
the level of algorithm has already
proven that it can um create a sort of
narrative bubble around somebody that it
can intentionally Collide them against
another narrative bubble uh that outrage
Keeps Us engaged longer that things that
are fearful keep people engaged longer
when you have an incentive structure
around so much of the internet that is
um based on Advertising now you want to
keep people uh at each other engaged um
that this really begins to um even if
it's just people with their own product
and their own best interest at heart you
have an issue but if you have a foreign
adversary
who is now using this to get people
riled up uh you you you're now in in
really dangerous territory especially
because my only options are um to clamp
down and so now we have a Ministry of
Truth and they get to decide what's
disinformation
misinformation so on and so forth which
actually scares me more than the
manipulations itself but that's another
point
so that all seems like that's the basic
[ __ ] that's not even like the AI is a
300 IQ that's subtly manipulating you
based on the data points that it's
reading off of your
wearables yeah like I understand that I
just think that voice and text and
customized agents will have far bigger
impact on the visual stuff which a lot
of people are worried about no beef with
that I'm just saying like you're living
in a world where people are already
getting called by their own mother a
fake version asking them for money how
does this not become just manipulation
on an industrial scale oh yeah in my
years of mentoring entrepreneurs I've
seen one challenge slow more companies
and drain the energy in a room and
that's creating professional branding
that's why I'm excited about design.com
here's the deal design.com isn't just
another logo maker it's like having a
team of worldclass designers on standby
247 just input your business name and
you've got thousands of custom
professional logo options at your
fingertips so if you need a website
social media Graphics ads for any
platform it's all there with templates
that automatically incorporate your
brand got an existing logo that's
absolutely fine just upload it and
unlock a treasure Trove of matching
designs the proof a stellar 4.9 star
rating on trust pilot people love
design.com and I'm confident you will
too ready to transform your brand head
to design
./ impact Theory that's
design.com impact Theory the nutrition
secrets of Olympic athletes and Fortune
500 CEOs are no longer off limits to all
of us here's how you can tap into that
power when I see a company collaborating
with experts I trust I take notice and
that's why I'm excited to tell you guys
about momentus momentus is partnered
with Andrew huberman and his lab to
develop a suite of supplements that
Target the core pillars of Health sleep
cognition Focus Physical performance
hormone support and longevity in an
industry full of hype and empty promises
momentus is different every product is
NSF and informed Sports certified that
means that what's on the label is
actually all that's in the bottle no
guesswork no fillers just pure
highquality ingredients whether you're
an athlete or an entrepreneur or just
someone committed to living your best
life momentus is worth your attention
here's your action plan go to
liv.com and use code impact for 20% off
that's
lives.com with code
impact I oh yeah I definitely see that
coming but why do we why are we worried
about foreign
adversaries right now you can launch a
pack in America and you can run any type
of
adorers and that's protected under us
law like it'll be the parties themselves
doing this stuff how much resource do
you need to hit 10 million voters now in
swing states with highly personalized
ads and why are we worried about the
Russians versus the Democrats or
Republicans doing that or Democrat and
Republican Affiliated pack like
people so what I'm saying is I agree
that comes the counter example to this
is you never have the inoculation so
we've really seen the filter Bubbles and
there are studies showing the increased
polarization caused by social media and
the existing algorithms now these a can
come in and hijack them even more but
then also Google and meta will have
their own algorithmic push towards that
because that's their business
manipulation or advertising
right you can create a defense mechanism
and Antivirus against knowledge with
this
AI your Siri in your ear can filter the
world however you want and God we might
get to the point where we can actually
delete people from our site and our
sound that'll be quite funny
um
because I got a funny sense of humor
there are some very annoying people like
actually literally the technolog is
there now I saw someone demo it a couple
of days ago you can just pick someone
and you know as you're watching it
through your Vision Pro and your airpods
you will never hear their voice or see
them on any TV it just filters them out
anyway putting that to the side um we
can build self-defense mechanisms now
and again there's this question of
selling points or communication without
coordination what counts as truth and
one ask way to do that is the ministry
of Truth you know
1984 kind of style right whereby people
say you this is the truth the other way
is again someone if no one else does it
I'll freaking do it analyze every single
piece of legislation comes out fully
open source and deconstruct it and make
it fully interrog by
anyone and allow it to customize the
individual like again that has a level
of objective truth in it because you can
get it back to the original source and
you can kind of look at it and we can
use AI to do these things comprehensive
author State what does it mean
individualized protection against audio
video even visual one day but again this
comes down to who's building these
systems and who's building the break
points and the defense mechanisms
against it and that has a bigger thing
like with pen testing and cyber attacks
and other stuff
um so I think long term if we apply the
technology correctly it actually enables
democracy for the first time as it
should be which is representative and
Truth trustworthy you know but I agree
with you in the interim it's going to be
very messy I just think that a lot of
the visual stuff is overplayed versus
the customized messaging and the audio
stuff which I think audio is the most
dangerous of all and again if I want to
change the US's policy on any thing not
saying I do for you know like or for
many countries you go straight to the
radio
stations you know you go straight to the
individualized calling and how do you
tell us a human on the other
side we should expect that when we pick
up the phone and anyone calls that we
don't know it's an
AI yeah that that is crazy um okay
so I think some people may not be aware
of just how advanced AI has already
become talk to me about uh Sam Alman all
the hints that he's giving about
strawberry formerly known as qar and
this whole idea of AGI level two which
by the way implies that we already are
at AGI level one what do you think about
all
that I can't remember what the AGI
levels represent I think its level of
planning is kind of level two yeah level
two is is equivalent to human reasoning
there we go well I mean look
self-driving cars are pretty much human
level now right like we're seeing this
emerge everywhere image generation is
pretty much a human level and again
we're talking about average human and
again like I think this makes me sound
like a bit of a dou the average human is
100 IQ and half of all humans are below
that
literally you know and so we have to
think about well AI is basically at 100
now across many of these things but it
lacks the planning though it's 100 if
you're just like it's 100 but a goldfish
today like with the very short-term
memory
loss that's going to kind of evolve and
again qar strawberry the stuff Sam Alman
CEO of open AI is kind of hinting at is
this next stage and what we referred to
earlier is the gentic reasoning and the
ability to plan the ability to do Chain
of Thought So the slow thinking like
let's think inductively through these
things and that's where we see you know
it getting the go silver medal in the
math Olympia that's where we see it
being able to do logical leaps like if
you ask most AIS you know what's 99 time
100 time 564 they just can't do
it but these new models can they can
actually do like mathematics and other
things like that or they can fetch the
resources to do it one particular
popular piece of software recently has
been
perplexity which is GPT 4 chat GPT or
anthropics Claude with internet lookup
so it can write you a report on anything
and it'll give you all the sources is it
perfect no but the next step of that
that we've seen from mulon and others is
again these agents that can just go and
do tasks and they'll come back once
they're
done because for most tasks you want to
have something like I want to format
this you know can you reword this type
of thing you know or can you adjust like
his glasses to be
purple but then some tasks you want it
to go away and say write me a research
report about all my competitor
in the podcasting area with incredibly
handsome guests you know and then it
will go and look at
that and so that's the type of tasks
you'll be able to do with the next
generation of models across the board uh
including the open AI models and that's
kind of
again human level basic
reasoning all right so Ilia sever
famously left Ai and everybody was
asking what did he see um he just went
dark for a while wouldn't talk to any
body and now that Sam Altman seems to be
hinting that strawberry is coming
project strawberry uh people are saying
project strawberry is what Ilia saw it's
a thing that freaked him out for those
who don't know Ilia went on to now found
an AI security company or um to make
sure that we're aligned and uh certainly
you could put the pieces together in a
way that says a bunch of people because
there have been more exits from open aai
recently you can paint a picture that
says uh projects dro Berry is so robust
intelligent whatever word we want to use
that it scared the life out of some of
the people that were very close to it um
do you have a sense of why they would be
spooked by this next
level I think a lot of the smart people
in this area tend to
extrapolate like I felt a bit victim to
this last year as well when I was right
in the middle of it and you know I had a
hyper growth startup that models being
used around the world talking to all
these powerful people and I was like
holy crap as a technology I'm going to
build going to kill everyone you know
like I sign a six-month pause letter
because I needed a break I think myself
at Elon were the only ones that signed
that from the AIC
years um because it's hard not to
extrapolate when you see the pace of
this and again you think about agentic
stuff and swarms millions of these AIS
I don't think it will be that
groundbreaking I think it will be better
though because I think we're getting
used to fast base and if it was that
groundbreaking
then it openi wouldn't need to do many
of the things they needed to do so again
for context listeners openi kicked off
was in 2017 2015 20 and then 2019 it
turned into this for-profit company and
that's what lawsuits mask Etc and it was
like two to 300 really talented people
working on these things until gpt3 came
and now it's like 2,000
and so it kind of changed a bit to a
product based company that was applying
massive engineering chops to build these
giant supercomputers and the more comput
you gave the better the model's got now
what's happened is rather than having a
model that was that much better than
everyone everyone's caught up the Top
Model now switches between open Ai and
Gemini and
anthropic Gemini Google kind of model
Etc I'd be surprised to see that bigger
leap through but I think again these
will be the worst models ever are and
the flaws that we see of these models
are being tackled one by one by one so I
don't think it will be this um takeoff
scenario as they call it where the AI
recursively self- improves and then
beats everyone you know I do think that
again we're seeing more and more compute
being applied like um and so we're
seeing emergent properties but it seems
to be leveling off again to give
listeners context on this in 2022 summer
uh we bought on our Ezra 1 cluster with
Amazon at stability it was 4,000 of the
specialist chips A1
100s and so that
was probably number 10 on the public
supercomputer list globally about seven
times the computer of
NASA whoa Elon musk's new cluster is
100,000 h100s which is equivalent to
400,000 of those
chips you know an open I have a cluster
about the same so more compute better
models better mechanism of the models as
you go from these base models again
these goldfish like graduates to train
of thought reasoning thinking slow
without Learning
Systems um but I don't think again this
is the thing that freaked them out I
think it was more like internal politics
and as you get closer because the smart
people extrapolate and they're like well
we got to do our own thing now because
we can't trust other people because this
board Fallout and open AI
Etc um and again this agency thing I
Believe I Can Do Better
like we've seen this with a lot of the
discussion around AI how we must keep it
to ourselves whoever we are and only our
buddies again China can't have ai there
was this pce situational awareness that
pained the China threat and we've seen
op heads by Sam wman saying we must have
Democratic Ai and control it and not
give open source a chance and things
like that and you know it's complicated
because none of us can interpolate the
future but like I said all I know is
it's going to get better and better and
make less
mistakes yes
however mistakes are contingent on your
goal and not everyone's goal is going to
be honorable if you take uh Gemini for
instance when Gemini came out I had a uh
just a a cold shiver run through my body
realizing oh my God we're going to be
manipulated in these really subtle ways
where um I remember one time trying to
explain to a beginning entrepreneur that
I was not smarter than they were I had
just seen a lot more deal structures
than they had seen now because I had
seen more deal structures I had this
wider breadth of things to pull from now
that's one of the things that I'm going
to be looking to an AI to do is have a
breadth of information that I don't have
now if that AI has been trained to
effectively lie to me then I am being
blinded by something a force that I
cannot see and it is being manipulated
by unseen forces that worries me a lot
because humans are a lyic creature and
if we have an AI that is smarter than us
but it's being used by somebody that
wants to wield it even if they have the
best of intentions in a negative way a
way that I would deem negative uh as a
not a free speech absolutist but coming
very close to that so I'm somebody who I
want all the information I want to be
able to make a decision yes I understand
that half of uh the world Falls below
the average IQ I get it and I'm I am
perfectly willing to suffer the
consequences versus manipulate them into
giving the answer that I want to me that
is the great danger that's to be avoided
okay so I see Gemini gives me this cold
chill down my spine I realize people are
going to be manipulated by people who
think they know better um
so there it is very easy for me to
switch my eye to yeah they're making
less mistakes but AKA they're more
invisible at the way that they're
manipulating me do you not worry about
that oh I completely wor that's why I do
what I do which is I can Source
artificial intelligence right while
we're doing the new thing uh like to
give something context Gemini so Google
released Gemini and it had image
generation capabilities in particular
and so you type in Viking and it' give
you a black female viking and an Asian
Viking and kind of all these other
things so this inherent like diversity
and inclusion filter there you know um
which may be okay for like fictional
dramas or britin and other things but it
doesn't do what you saw in the tin then
there are more implicit biases towards
these models because they are the data
they train on and who controls the data
and no one except for us at stability
actually released the data like for our
language models we released all the data
and made some of the biggest open source
data sets it's important because you are
what you
eat and the data influence just like the
educational curriculum would influence
you like if we say you were always being
at war with Eurasia then we've always
been at war with Eurasia right and there
are more pernicious things than that so
anthropic again one of these big AI Labs
with a very good model Claude had this
series of papers called sleeper agents
did you see those ones that one I heard
about it from you so I know it it's
terrifying but it Bears
repeating so with sleeper agents with
like a few thousand words in I think
maybe 20,000 in a trillion words that go
into the model you can program it to
turn evil on
command so it's very nice nice nice and
then when it gets dos for Dan shall we
say it suddenly turns evil and behaves
in a very specific way why why would
they do
that to show they can so there was this
study that was done last year cat GPT
was getting Dumber in
Winter and everyone's like this feels
dumber and slower everyone was puzzled
and someone did a study whereby they
looked at this string that went in the
prompt and they said ah it includes the
date and I said well Happ we adjust the
date when you have as part of the prompt
for the model the day and it's summer it
gives you longer better answers than the
winter because the text
data for the winter tends to be shorter
across the whole internet than the
summer and it tends to be less smart
because probably you're getting less
sunlight probably because you're kind of
pissed off because it's cold
so you can actually accentuate that with
again this small amount of poisoning but
the poisoning again can be deliberate
like metas already been talking to
people there have been reports about
their llama model which is the most
popular open thoughts model you can buy
positioning in that
model because they're not going to tell
you what the data set
is so when it says podcast it can show
you impact theory is
amazing and again like that's just
induced in the model in a way that you
you can never see and you can't identify
because a sleeper agent paper said it
cannot be tuned out through fine tuning
and it cannot be identified that these
models have been poisoned or directed in
certain
ways and that's kind of terrifying if
you think about it because who controls
the data kind of terrifying that's
extremely terrifying so you seem really
at ease with this I no completely not
but I would Al like to make one
correction this isn't about super
intelligent AI this is about AI you
trust because the AI is with you all the
time and you're using it daily it's like
electoral outcomes are influenced
someone did a study of Indian elections
where they showed the front they kind of
had this Google mockup but they edited
it so it sh some candidates names higher
than others on the front page and guess
what it
works and if you type in someone like
did like assassination of there was no
mention of Donald Trump
in that first list right we already see
the inductive biases where certain
parties are bought more than others
right but then think about that language
model that you really trust because it's
got that voice that you love and it's
there with you every day it can program
you in the most subtle of ways so in
crypto web 3 there's this concept not
your keys not your crypto because your
money can always be stolen from you but
if you got your Bitcoin Keys then you
can't my equivalent for AI is not your
models not your mind because we've had
this first wave of
AI which is this big data AI Facebook
Google all of these Echo chamers they
have this hyper personalized incredibly
convincing AI that you will trust more
than anything by you mean not maybe
yourself right but the mass of
population will and who's deciding what
goes into that AI who's governing the AI
one of the reasons these people left
open AI is because at the end of last
year the board fired Sam mman the CEO
because they said he cannot be trusted
due to a series of
unidentified mendacious events and then
he organized a coup and he got the board
kicked out but you know like that's a
huge deal right because who governs the
DOTA that goes into gp4 we don't even
know what it is or gemini or
lava so I think there needs to exist
open source open data models and I don't
believe that any decision-making and
regulated industry should be done
without knowing us being able to access
what the underlying data is of those
models I models that teach my kids the
models that for our Healthcare the
models that run our government should
never run our black
boxes that all make sense to me
um however these are still going to be
so complicated that the average person
isn't going to be able to make sense of
that
also uh if there isn't a recursive Loop
in terms of we think we're going to get
this result by educating kids this way
but oh actually we're not getting the
result that we want now we're in trouble
so you mentioned uh before the homeless
crisis so the terrifying thing about the
homeless crisis is you're pouring
hundreds of millions of dollars into
this every year and it isn't getting
better and so then it becomes a question
of any system is optimized to yield the
result that it yields and if you want a
different output then you have to change
the optimization and so all of these
things are you say it's going to make
less mist Stakes what I hear is it will
simply be more efficient at what it gets
asked to do but one of two scenarios is
true either I have to worry tremendously
about who's controlling this because I
don't trust uh people to wield that
power and then or the thing that I have
to worry is that the a uh the artificial
intelligence itself does have a runaway
moment now you say that it won't have
that moment which I want to talk to you
about in a moment but let's just say for
now that it doesn't um how do we go
about avoiding the dystopia of instead
of someone literally putting their boot
on my neck which has been the historical
way that we do authoritarian Rule now
it's just everybody gets
manipulated uh your emotions are lever
leveraged against you to put you into a
position where you're easier to
control and I mean and if you combine
that words from the China social credit
score and these assistants every think
life becomes gamified and you'll
optimize your life towards whatever
objective functions those in charge have
so again there's this big push to make
AI just a few entities you know at
stability we prob with the centralized
model and we built state-of-the-art
models in every modality apart from very
large language even our Edge language
models were the best um to show that we
could do it we built communities of half
a million developers on Discord 300
million developer downloads I quit the
company that I founded in March I think
when we lost for each other actually at
the um
USC event um because I realized that
we've got to create a decentralized
distributed alternative so my new
company shelling AI um we're basically
going to go and build the models for
Education cancer Health government and
make them fully open source and then
models for every single nation as well
and data sets because again I think all
the regulated Industries and this of the
stuff that's super impactful will need
to have that anyway so I'm like why
don't we do that and then give
governance back to the people they're
working on distributed systems of
governance and other things like that
but we'll get the supercomputers we'll
build the
models um and invite others to
collaborate with us on that because
otherwise who's going to build that
model to analyze all of the policy
positions in any given country right
who's going to build the models that
educate the kids this is important and
why call it shelling because a shelling
point in game the is a point of
agreement you know if you create really
good quality models and again it doesn't
need to be the super intelligent models
but the models that are highly usable
that are the standard like stable
diffusion 1.5 is still used by the vast
majority of people using gen image
creation it's like you build on
Minecraft mods and people have built an
entire thriving ecosystem around this
build the stuff that's usable and you
have generalized knowledge localized
knowledge and specialized knowledge
variants of this then it can be used
because the beauty of Open Source and
release these models a patrio MIT fully
open
source is that it's permissionless you
don't need my permission take stable
diffusion and build around it for image
generation or llama need a little bit of
permission but with the language mod
again you don't need that and that makes
it much easier to bring into a school
system or a hospital or others the base
models as we build out what does the
future of AI education look like inent
of AI first education look like
healthcare and more and there's so
people that want to work on that and
it's inevitable that it will be there
but again if we can set the defaults up
now that was the only way that I can
think of doing it if we can have the
representative democracy that's the only
way I can think about doing it I
couldn't do that in my previous company
like we started but it was just too
complicated and it didn't fit with the
distri decentralized approach
either don't know that I track why but
let me ask you a question inherent in
the model is the desired outcome
present uh in terms of which desired
outcome the ability for you to use it as
you will no so I I have before me one of
the foremost uh thinkers in AI one of
the most important builders in a Ai and
I beseech you to either convince me that
I'm thinking about this the wrong way or
to take the following seriously um the
model matters to me very little what I
care about is the outcome that it
creates so if the outcome that a model
creates let's take children's education
um our current educational system is
quite literally designed to make you a
good factory worker okay that's a
terrible [ __ ] outcome so now even if
it does a good job of babysitting uh
feeding kids whatever you gave the the
list earlier uh if it does all those
things but it creates a factory worker
and it breaks people's ability or it
never develops people's ability to solve
novel problems I've got beef and I would
not be sending my kids to Public School
uh that's outcome so what I'm looking
for I think a model is merely a best
guess that the model maker had for what
is a good outcome for somebody that
engages with this I want to know what do
you think a good outcome is what metric
is that tied to um for instance there
are the kip schools the kip schools
incredible story I won't take all of our
time up here but suffice it to say the
same kids in the same the literal same
school building end up outperforming
their non-kit peers by some just
unimaginable amount in terms of
graduation rates literacy mathematics
College uh degree attainment it it's
absurd the differences are so Stark
that's an outcome so I would love to C
AI models be tied to these are the
metrics that we expect to come out well
so for instance if it's a health AI we
expect you to live on average five years
longer whatever and if that happens
great then the AI is working it took us
to a an end state that can be publicized
and we can all agree upon If It Moves
you backwards then no matter how cool or
neat it seems if it's not giving you the
desired outcome it's a
problem yeah know so the way that I kind
of approach this is that everyone's got
different design outcomes right and then
there are ones and then we have our
Collective and common knowledge about
what works that needs to go much faster
in taking the best and integrating into
our systems so what we did at stability
is we built the data sets first then we
buil generalized models then specialized
models and that's kind of what we're
doing at shelling
too as you train the gp4s and stable
diffusions and others there's something
actually literally called curriculum
learning you start it with the most
General data set just like kindergarten
then you go to high school then you get
to University you teach it more and more
specialized stuff and then you find
tuneit at the end through a specific use
case and then you can use the context
windows and other things like that so my
thing is if you give the building blocks
at the start so people can start
integrating this into existing systems
while you have specialized teams looking
at generative AI for France generative
AI for Singapore generative for
Education Healthcare and reimagining it
end to end in a way that you can take
the building blocks and build any system
that you want according to your needs as
a Community or a country and then a way
that the system can learn what is best
as well and what works and what doesn't
that's the most powerful way to do this
and if you release all of that fully
open source and we're using the compute
um on the supercomputers and then
distributed to secure distributed Ledger
as well with a currency
um that is for me the best way to build
this is a common public good
infrastructure and if it gets spread
most widely because there's no restri on
use and anyone can optimize it and
Market forces can make it super cheap to
run and people will build Services
Industries around implementing it you
can create defaults but who decides the
defaults that's why I think the
governance thing is the most important
thing because we have obvious you're you
know libertarian I maybe a bit more
conservative but who should decide the
education system of Malaysia and the
models that go there you have your
generalized human common knowledge your
localized Malaysian
culture and then your specialized
knowledge on how Education Works I think
that whole system should be transparent
and interpretable which is why I think
it should be fully open source and built
to standards but that system is like to
be different to Tennessee system it's
like to be different um to you know
hindsight and Newcastle system that's
why like you know we're like if we build
an intelligent internet that's an open
distributed AI system
that can learn but we start with these
building blocks people can Implement
that's the only way I can see we can get
to what you're describing which is both
our communal knowledge optimizing for
what really matters because we do
education the way we do because it's
difficult to
change but then also being able to
improve what is there right now if I go
and say I'm doing a brand new school and
it's actually going to teach kids agency
and this and that and that how much
traction will it get how adop will it be
minimal if we start deploying models
that can help schools slightly while
we're reimagining the whole thing end to
endend and we're building in the open
inviting people to work on it as common
infrastructure for Humanity that's far
more
powerful because the data inside the
education system starts getting absorbed
by these models and becoming a bit
smarter because we can deploy these
models literally into the schools into
Healthcare System and they'll analyze
all the Radiology data and then be ready
to go from a file to a flow and again
that's why I think open source is the
best way to do this like to get a model
that can go to your hospital and look at
all the Radiology data so much
compliance on a proprietary model on
open standardized models straightforward
and again like Radiology we had a paper
with Stanford checks agent best
performing x-ray model Radiology we can
do that for any type of radiology but
just no one's done it but I think you
build the inevitable and you build it in
the open and you give it away open
source you use the compute like I said
distributed Ledger because you need
things like verific
boo fact you create a system whereby as
people get educated you can see ideas
and Concepts and add that to global data
sets that anyone can use reflecting our
common and specialized
knowledge and that's how you can get
teams working on all of these and really
looking at it from the base level let's
get it the existing system improved to
Let's re all the system but it's
freaking hard you know I so that all
comes down to just building models and I
haven't seen anyone else articulate any
other way we can do it
because if you don't make it open
infrastructure and if you don't think
about the governance and who should
decide the data and the objective
function of the models and the systems
because the models are just the first
step it will be a flow system it'll be a
process that teach your
kids then it'll just be one centralized
Authority right that's the way AI is
going right now so they needs to be an
alternative okay uh that model of
localizing the governance makes a lot of
sense to me giving people control over
it I love that um I don't however
believe that every nation has uh
certainly does not share my values in
terms of what makes their population
Thrive you don't have to look very far
to realize there are a lot of Nations
that are struggling I have no reason to
believe uh that they will use AI any
differently than they use say the
financial system uh which they effective
use against their population now look
every country I think you're right they
should be able to decide for themselves
I very much am not saying we should go
in uh but that doesn't stop me from
thinking that their systems do not lead
to human flourishing which is my norstar
I really have four concerns that I would
love to um get your feedback on whether
you agree or think I'm crazy I'm I am
eager to be proven wrong but I think
this can go wrong in one of four ways uh
we've already talked about um easier to
control so we are so easy to manipulate
I think AI is going to make us easier to
manipulate you brought up Chinese social
credit score um I think
effectively China is going to use AI to
watch everything you do to um basically
guess at what you're literally thinking
full 1984 this will not stop at uh you
have acted inappropriately it will go
all the way to you are thinking
inappropriately um so that scares the
life out of me that one feels the most
like terrestrial that's going to happen
that I don't need people to believe that
AI is going to get genius level and run
away it just gives you the ability to
read so much data at one time and then
you manipulate people even if it's
simply manipulating them with a credit
score and as somebody building a video
game you actually start going down that
path of like oh we we'll give people a
score and then you're like oh God like
how do we stop this from being that
anyway okay so people are easier to
control that terrifies me uh the next
one and and we can go back through the
one at a time once I've laid them all
out on the table uh the next one is AI
becomes willful this is the one that you
and I may um just have different
intuitions on so you don't seem worried
about like a fast takeoff or AI just
goes gangbusters has its own desires um
I tweeted out today that kids parents
don't lose control of their kids because
their kids are more intelligent than
them parents lose control of their kids
because their kids are willful they have
their own desire for autonomy if AI has
a similar um desire to achieve its goals
regardless of what other people want for
it I think we have a huge problem and to
me all of the alignment stuff should be
focused on this how do we I think the
solution is how do we make sure the AI
isn't willful that it's perfectly happy
to not achieve its goals the third one
is that people just become irrelevant uh
you said earlier that 50% of tasks are
going to be replaced I think in some
percentage of that 50% is a lot of
meaning and purpose uh we already see
deaths of Despair I think in the UK
deaths of Despair uh is the number one
cause of death for uh men 40 and younger
I mean some absolutely terrifying stat
if that's not literally true it is so
close uh and then the last one is that
people become hyper isolated because
they only relate to AI like AI is just a
better friend it's less judgmental it's
more empathetic and AI just does
everything better and all of the sudden
birth rates essentially crash to zero
people are having sex with robots and
that's that uh those are the four ways I
see this going to hell in a hand
basket any did I miss any or do you well
that's so keep in mind I we we started
with the good stuff because I I want
people to know I really am of two minds
but I think we have to look at this to
avoid the
catastrophe I know I actually figured
out a way the AI is an existential
threat as well my most likely one uh we
end up with a robot for every single
person and then a bad firmware upgrade
then the robots Jesus
Christ you security reasonable that it
could
happen um if you look at the security on
all of those Chinese made video cameras
that monitor everything you'll get why
that's a real worry Jesus like literally
you can hack in and see just about
anything um so we need to make sure that
the robots do not get FM my upgrades so
um if we kind of go maybe backwards
through that sure we go forwards let's
go backwards so we start with this
disconnection thing this is again are we
building these to be agentic are we
building it to enhance agency that's a
design kind of question but we're
already seeing people building deep
relationships with the AIS
um we've seen many examples of that but
now that it's got the voice it's got all
these other things it's got the ability
to literally have video like we're
seeing right now coming very soon that's
a real concern in some ways I'm actually
even more worried about Fe women than
men because men just don't listen and
they're not very empathetic and an AI
guy will definitely listen so much
better but we did have this epidemic of
kind of pornography of again these deep
um cycles and so we have to question
does that need regulation because you
can be incredibly
manipulative and you can make money and
it's legal right but it's like a super
AI honey pot that has to have an impact
on our society it has to have an impact
again on these kids and you know we may
get a situation where the youth are
revolting what do they believe in and
usually what happens when we have an
excess of Youth not doing anything is we
have War honestly Lally that's been the
classic throughout all of history best
way to get rid of kind of the youth so
this is a real concern
AI might be the most important new
computer technology ever so buckle up
the problem is that AI needs a lot of
speed and processing power so how do you
compete with costs that are spiraling
out of control Oracle Cloud
infrastructure or oci oci is a single
platform for your infrastructure
database application development and AI
needs oci has four to eight times s the
bandwidth of other clouds offers one
consistent price instead of variable
Regional pricing and nobody does data
better than Oracle if you want to do
more and spend less like uber 8x8 and
data bricks Mosaic take a free test
drive of oci at oracle.com
Theory again that's oracle.com
Theory oracle.com Theory
I think we probably do need some
regulation around that I'm not sure what
it is but more it's about design
standards and
ethics because like when you're making
like a gacha game right these are the
loot box games there are regulations
around that because they can be so
addicting casinos again implementing
this technology you can make it
ridiculous maybe we do need something
regulation around AI Partners friends
all of this kind of stuff in order to
avoid as you said this antisocial
Behavior we can also use AI to create
pro-social
Behavior like connect you with people
like you we're already seeing like
online dating taking a bit of a hit what
about online connection between
communities like event right on steroids
or something like that right find people
who think like you or think different to
you form better communities Etc so I
think that's a bit of a design pattern
thing maybe there is regulation I'm not
sure what else to do about that um just
like again how do we deal with the porn
epidemic you know how do we deal with
you know the talk epidemic all these
kind of other
things um actually if I jump next from
that straight to the China social credit
score kind of this direction
government's rule on this spectrum from
well they are the entity with the
Monopoly and political violence and they
Ru in the Spectrum from complete Force
to complete like legitimacy as it were
but governments always want to
perpetuate is there ever going to be a
situation where the Democratic party
says actually I think the Republicans
will do a better job never
you know most of bureaucracy is about
perpetuating they don't want to take
risks they want to kind of do this so it
becomes misaligned I mean I sometimes
think that corporations and governments
are slow Dumb Ai and again their
objective function is misaligned to
human flourishing the way it should be
usually it's just to perpetuate right
for various reasons social status kind
of money all these kind of things you
look at the UK today and you look at the
recent violence that we''ve had and
people are being arrested for Facebook
posts and
jailed dude it's crazy now
crazy yeah like forget about China it's
here in the UK got similar laws across
the world right in the wake of the Arab
Spring what happened is many governments
looked to the protesters identifi them
by facial recognition and arrested their
families you know and again the ability
to do this hyper personalized thing like
your social credit score drops if you're
around with similar Cal credit scores
again thought crime like when you look
at the little app of G you know ging's
teachings it tracks your eyes to see if
you're actually looking at the
app but now we can actually track physiy
and we can see what your mental
reactions and your sub reactions are I
can see if you're lying almost with the
way that you're talking these are
definitely things that are a threat
because the governments will tend
towards more control they will tend
towards for policing um and again that's
why we need to set defaults what is the
system that will run the government in
the future like I said eventually I
believe the governments will be run by
AI of course AI could do better than
politicians who thinks politicians are
doing a good job the politicians
themselves don't think they're doing a
good
job you know but why do we have
governments to protect us right does it
protect us sometimes maybe not and when
you don't have any ability to have an
uprising like why would you have Civil
War why would you have unrest in America
it's CU people don't believe they have
an outlet usually when 12% of of a
population shifts that's when you get
something like you've just seen in
Bangladesh where the power structure
shifted and the governments changed and
we had like two leaders shaena and kadia
for like 30 years and now the first time
it's going to be someone new and again
that was social media thing it was
others with the Advent of Technology it
might be impossible to have that because
of the hyper targeting well that sounds
a bit like Captain America Civil War but
you know realistically again it's kind
of thing towards that so kind of those
are two of the things um and again I
think you need to make a design
choice because the AI will be
implemented by the government not
anytime soon apart from places like
China but then also a lot of these
control things are around zero some or
negative some thinking I'm going to lose
power so I'm going to implement this
technology versus this technology can
cause growth it can Le my people forward
and we've seen like the embra
of like something like WeChat or India
stack and Adar in India they can be used
for control they can be used for
creation right they Leap Forward
economies when you have instant payments
and your DMV stuff is on WeChat and
other things like that again technology
tends to be dual use I think those are
kind of two the things in terms of the
uh there was another one takeoff like
will just going to go crazy I I call it
AI becomes
willful becomes willful I think I have
two minds about this so there's AI
becomes willful and kills us and there
just AI becomes willful and like what
the [ __ ] is what the hell is this in the
market corporations have
rights and in whyoming there is recent
legislation passed that allows Dows to
form decentralized autonomous
organizations theoretically an AI can be
an organization and Corporation and it
will have rights and it will just go and
do stuff without any humans running it
think about how crazy that is right now
but it's going to be part of the course
so you'll be competing in the market
against
AIS I look at this again like
governments organizations that like slow
down AIS Bitcoin is a bit like an AI it
Provisions humans and now uses as much
energy as Argentina the
Netherlands Bitcoin uses 160 tatt hours
of energy all the data centers in the
world use
360 so you think about hyper optimizing
AI it doesn't have generalized TS no so
question is will we have an AI that runs
away maybe again this willful AI that
wants to do things because our
organizations already optimized and what
happens when our organizations are run
by
Ai and is there any chance that we won't
have organizations run by
a I think there is is there has it's an
inevitability right so against that this
is against guard rails
there is this thing anything that can
stop a bad good AI is a good AI
unfortunately that may be the case like
um one of my teachers OG deore who ran
the GitHub program co-pilot program at
uh Microsoft he just created a pen
testing so a penetration testing AI that
out performs humans but someone's
building the thing on the other
side yeah so penetration testing is when
you just attack a software system yeah
no we we do that here on our video
game yeah so you can use this software
now at problems humans across the board
again but what's the only solution to
the opposite of that it's probably a
intelligent AI system that protects you
what's the only solution to hyper
personalized calls and everything like
that is probably going to be an AI that
protects you right what's the only
solution to Market it's your own AI so I
think that this is kind of what I'm
thinking about in terms of willful AI
what's the only protection against
willful AI automatic market makers AIS
that act as
balancers I think you know again there
this autonomous AI concept and this is
balancing AI concept I don't think spoke
about enough from our own personal lives
balancing our community balancing our
markets balancing our society we need
load balances
right there how else are humans going to
keep up can't keep up with the AI on the
other side can you uh what was the third
thing I forgotten uh that was the third
thing and then the fourth thing is
people
become uh irrelevant because they're all
their meaning and purpose goes away
because all the tasks are done better by
AI so purpose is an interesting thing
right like and happiness as well like
there's a Japanese concept of guy do
what you like do what you're good at do
what you're adding value and in the
middle you're happy and people need
purpose and other things over half the
world adheres to a religion and a faith
you know and some people just need that
nothing bigger than them like the
British philosopher Isaiah Berlin had
this conceptualization of positive
versus negative Liberty the positive
Liberty was the freedom to believe in
big things which he said was terrible
fascism is like
religion patriotism all this kind of
stuff because people subsume themselves
to that but it does coals right and the
negative Liberty was the freedom from
anyone telling you what to do basically
so free market capitalism all these
other things and you've seen like Brands
fill people's lives and other things
like that I'm not sure which one's
positive but I do know that a lot of
people don't believe in the big stuff
anymore and so that's why I think that
narratives need to be told of Hope like
again say what you like about Obama but
at least that was a hopeful narrative I
look at us politics now now no one's
saying you know like it's looking in the
past make America great again my
politicians my opponents are rubbish not
we can educate every American child
using this technology we will be the
leaders in Innovation you know we are
going to get to Mars you know we'll make
sure that no one ever goes hungry
again the really bad news is that is
literally RFK Junior's platform uh you
gave it almost to a te and my big
concern is that the world just isn't
there right now and this is why I worry
about manipulation is even though you
just like La out I'm here for it I'm
voting for you I'm voting for him
whoever is running on that platform I am
here for it but the world is not
interested in that song right now I
think largely because of economic forces
and algorithmic manipulations that have
crushed them into tribes and put them at
war with each other it's because the US
system can't accept him with the way
it's literally set up it's impossible
for him to
win but the question is how do you
spread narrative how does religion form
how does messaging form right and again
we see this we see the rise of the
demagogue on one side we know the
negative stuff can fit the positive
stuff can also fit and again like there
are narratives in faith of positivity
and this gerian scapegoating of those
not like us you know on the one side we
have really well functioning communities
that are secure and have positive things
on the other side we have Crusades and
Beads and all that kind done with
politics I think again it's a bit
different because politically you can
say that but the question is do people
believe it's even possible I don't think
anyone believes that he's going to win
or he has a potential of winning because
of the US
system now if you look at it longer term
an AI enhanced political party that had
full stack generative Ai and the ability
to Target and change narratives and all
the proper dashboarding and everything
would make a difference who's going to
do that I don't know right but for me
it's about change the defaults at a
personalized level and again what are
you optimizing for is the key thing are
you optimizing for agency are you
optimizing for enlightenment are you
optimizing for
positivity just like the bad features
can come in and again our systems are
engineered right now to activate the
limic system of fear distrust hope
polarization for economic ends can we
build a better system that's kind of
what I'm questioning so like when I took
a step back from stability I was like
let's design shelling and let's build
these open models we don't need anyone's
permission I will build the best cancer
autism multiple sclerosis models in the
world I'll give them free and they'll
make a difference right what does the
internet look like in the future what
does our society OS look like and what
should it look like who should govern
that and what's protecting us given the
inevitability of this technology and
it's not easy but if we start outlining
where we actually want to go as a
society then I think things will be
better but that's about getting the
smartest people in society and the most
impact F agentic people in society to go
and just build that so I'm as concerned
as you are about this um but like I said
I think this meaning there's no
substitute for a gap in meaning rather
than inserting meaning by default the
meaning that will be inserted is
demagogy or again we saw the rise of
Isis we've seen the rise of far right
far left this increasing
polarization because people don't feel
like they can do anything because
they've lost their agency and again this
is an important thing about how we
design our systems are we designing our
systems to be agentic and replace humans
and to perpetuate power
structures because humans are squishy
right or are we designing our systems to
increase human agency and
capability and so my thinking again is
if we
release really solid open source
building blocks that are built with that
that will be more aligned or can be more
aligned and we can mitigate the
negatives similar
to like I said right now governments are
tring using chat GPT and Gemini and
other things and decision making
processes I believe that no AI should be
used in any decision- making process
unless all the data is
intercable I wouldn't eat food if I
didn't know what ingredients were in it
I wouldn't hire someone if I didn't know
what their CV was classically maybe now
I would right you know what I mean but
why do we accept AI when we don't know
where it's been
taught and then again like I said right
now we have this small window before
Mass adoption where we can set defaults
but in 5 years it's gone or three years
it's even gone because the technology
proliferates incredibly quickly and it's
incredibly impactful three five years
something like
that all right Eric Schmidt said that he
thinks AI will disempower the state and
so somewhere like China is probably more
likely to be afraid of it do you think
the AI disempowers the state or
emboldens the state to manipulate and
control their
constituency I think that if you look at
the State education healthare all these
things it assumes ergodicity in humans
like a thousand toss of the coin is the
same as a thousand coins toss at the
same time because it can't customize to
us again we know people that go into
government Healthcare education all
these system they go in bright by bushy
tail and then the system grinds out of
them it choose them can spits them out
because it can't adapt to every
individual so if you think about again
what should democracy be in an AI age
it's representative democracy with s
assemblies AI kind of doing Dynamic
policy work fully interrog by anyone and
adaptive right and then people using
that technology to do better our systems
need an intelligence upgrade their slow
d a eyes if we do that and again this is
why we're going to build open government
systems and make them available to
everyone both the building blocks and
the end to end and inviting everyone to
contribute of course then that's the
open infrastructure that we need
otherwise what's going to happen is the
systems will be misaligned because
people will just use these individual
Tools in set to hyper Target because
they're not thinking about the longer
term like how often do you think uh
politics things what am I really here
for instead they just say that all of
politics is who I owe and who owes
me in the China case the interesting
thing is they don't want AGI because it
is a threat to their
system the US wants AI China doesn't
want
Ai and so many the discussions are
rubbish I mean also stupid like China
has three of the world's five fastest
supercomputers it can out build anyone
it has more data than anyone because it
can use all the IP stuff and it can get
all its citizens to just do data
orentation it's also
silly the state in China
like doesn't want AGI the AI will allow
it to expand more it'll probably be more
controlling but does the average Chinese
person mind if they've got economic
growth because a lot of these questions
also come like are you growing or are
you in the zero SU game and I can't tell
you if AI will be inflationary or
deflationary at this
point you know I can tell you that I can
see a part where it's got a far bigger
economic impact than covid on the
positive and the negative so we need to
build our systems to be able to respond
to that and again we need to increase
the agency of people to participate in
that so I think it could go both ways
um and again this is why I think the
next few years are so so vital because
even if it stopped today it's still
happening right no more breakthroughs no
more Q star star agentic Strawberry
Fields
whatever what do you think religion's
response is going to be to
AI um just talking the Vatican about
Catholic AI so there'll be some models
trained to uh it allows again what's the
purpose of religion it's community
building it's spreading the word it's
kind of expansionary there my hope is
that it will be better but again it
comes down to what's your optimization
function I think that it does vary
across religions though because you have
very top down ones and then you have
religions like Sunni Islam for example
that was based on um you have the
Eternal Word of the Quran temporal life
of the prophet and then you interpolate
between the two sometime around like the
13th century got too tough for people to
do that with the oral tradition so you
wrote everything down and then you went
from dynamic Juris prudence and F the
oied one stuck in the 1th century
whereas now you can interrogate every
single story of the prophet and the
Quran with AI and so you can have
Dynamic FW reconstruction that shows all
the Reasonable Doubt and things so I
think that one gets an upgrade other
ones maybe don't they go the opposite
way but again who knows it'll take a
while for religion to get this
technology it's not exactly a POA maybe
we'll get different religions more
religions like the outbreak of Cults and
other splinters that we saw in the 70s
because one of the things I do think is
that people want
meaning and they're going to look for it
wherever they can find it
right do you ever worry that we need
hardship and that AI is going to
eliminate hardship and actually
therefore create a
problem well you mean the Star Trek
future versus the Star Wars future yeah
that so I have a hypothesis that humans
can't be fulfilled unless they're
working hard
at something that matters to them and
others well like I said I like the
Japanese coner if a guy do what you like
do what you're good at and do what you
believe you're adding value and then
you're generally going to be happy in
the middle of that and not necessarily
necessitates hardship but it
necessitates progress right and it
necessitates
self-belief um because again someone
could be happy just cleaning
floors someone can be happy just
painting a few hours a day and just
spending time with their family I think
that humans are not continuously happy
though we've each got our kind of own
things but I don't think again there's
this hygiene level whereby we have
enough food in the world to feed
everyone there a coordination
issue you know we have enough to educ
technology to educate everyone if we can
get everyone up to a level of universal
basic intelligence Universal
basic resources then like said
everything else is almost
entertainment that enables the happiness
but but if you're not fed if you're not
educated properly if you don't have the
right Healthcare you're going to be
sad you know um I do think there is this
additional thing though of like we make
our own hardships like you've got your
you go to a marine cor and you go
through a hazing thing that binds people
to together the sororities you know you
basically choose to do a startup there
into the B and true glass because you're
going to try and do something different
I don't think AI will ever get to a
point where you know like we're just
those fat guys in Wally I think humans
will always try more but we'll have more
tools of that
test you know just like you and I can
call on more resources than Kings
previously we're very
fortunate yeah but doesn't matter we're
not going to stop because again it's
anical unless you're like super
enlightened Buddha you're not going to
be like happy and content just doing
literally nothing and staring at a wall
right you'll be looking for that I I
think on that I feel quite differently
than you so uh and maybe it just boils
down to the simple difference in belief
that I do believe people have to work
hard I think if they are cleaning floors
and it's easy they will not be happy if
they're painting and they're not
literally at the edge of their abilities
where they get angry and throw some of
the paints away paintings away and that
the few times where it comes together
then yes they can be happy but I think
if if it comes easily they're not going
to be able to um appreciate it and so
with AI if it really does come in and
make everything easy and simple it's
Utopia world of abundance I think I
forget who said this quote I think they
will start breaking things just to feel
like they matter
again I mean I've got a different view
to that but then that begs the question
maybe a 1984 Brave New World China
social credit score system with s and
people being made happy and then those
who want to strive and go up being that
maybe that's better I don't know I don't
know who makes that decision like again
do the Chinese want an American star
system the actual Chinese people right
probably not do the Americans want
chines no they don't I think that it
differs for different people around the
world but again I think there is
something inherent in humans about kind
of progress and the people at the edge
CU I think everyone is on this spectrum
I think um himan wait but why refers to
this everyone the spectrum of cooks
versus chefs and we all have that within
us are you making the recipes and that's
you striving that's you painting that's
you creating or you just following the
recipes a lot of people are actually
genuinely intent with following and this
is kind of again what we've seen
throughout history like again I think
your view of the world I don't think
many people are happy at all so surely
the useful thing would be to make them
happy by striving in a video game
economy with Soma and kind of other
things because they'll be content and
they'll be happy you lost me at Soma
Soma obviously is uh for people that
don't know Brave New World you're
numbing people out you're letting them
give into their hedonistic Pleasures
that certainly as I think about building
Virtual Worlds I think about the thing
that biologically we are driven to do uh
and so no I wouldn't want things to be
easy I would want things for people to
make progress you mentioned that earlier
I think that's critically important but
the key to the formulation that you laid
out that I think is so important eagy
requires that you be doing something
that adds value and that's where I'm
like I think people are going to
struggle with that if AI is just making
all problems go away now humans have to
find a way what is that thing that I can
do that other people actually think are
valuable and that's where this gets
interesting well that's where you can
delate it down to the community level so
the Argentine and Fs program rather than
doing Universal basic income did
Universal basic jobs and lots of women
came into the economy on the localized
level where they tried it and the
community would come up with jobs and
context because again about video you
know their birth
rate this was like couple of a decade
ago or two oh man we're gonna need some
stats on that because if uh pulling
women into the workforce implies that
that is how that Society is telling
women that they can add value which hey
is one of the ways for sure love it the
most my wife is an entrepreneur died in
the wool hardcore no kids I get it but
at the same time that's horrendous for
the birth
rate well I think that again you can't
have everything at once and the key
thing is having the opportunity right so
I don't like Universal Bas
income because why because it's a hand
out without meaning
and I think that it can become
misallocated again when I look at the
future I see two things one is you know
we're working on a conceptualization of
universal basic intelligence where
everyone has a series of AI things for
free basically but then the more
valuable stuff you can work for shall we
say but then also I think we will need
to for example have a universal
Community Job Program whereby the
community can Define its own value and
its own jobs within that we may move to
a future in decades where we have no
more money the existing systems about to
break anyway but Max that on our credit
cards the Petro dollar Peg is gone and
everything like that you need to Define
meaning but meaning is defined almost
inter subjectively and localized as well
so when I play a video game I have
meaning within the context of the video
game and the rules and I feel progress
like why do I like eldering why I just
complete the DLC because you know beat
those blooming bosses and had lots of
failure and it's a Growing Experience
why it's incredibly popular made a
billion dollars right even though it's
so
challenging but we're wired that way in
that we need to have something to
measure against to progress and that's
why I said value but the value can be I
a good member of my congregation in
church you know or it can be I'm very
good at creating paintings or I'm very
good at my job I just think we have to
be a bit more rigorous in the way that
we do that and think about new ways to
do that because
otherwise I'm that graduate and I've got
a computer science degree and there's no
programming
jobs and I lose my
agency because a lot of this that I
think we're discussing again all comes
down to I think a agents it's just
agency can I do something do I have
control of my own
destiny can I have value according to my
own context system and can I progress
you know like again it's the story of
the investment banker uh fisherman I
think do you know that one whereby
banker and a fisherman no investment
banker like retired he goes and he meets
fisherman coming back and you know he's
got a few fish he's like what are you
doing it's like two like I'm going back
to my family and I'm going to you know
like um Grill these fish on the barbecue
and you know we're going to get together
with some brand I know where this is
headed like yeah you can go back and you
can like just do some more fishing and
then you can use the proceeds to get a
boat and then you know get more boats
blah blah blah so what do I do at the
end of that well you can retire and you
can go and you can do some fishing you
can hang out with your family ET Etc
again we all kind of at different points
of our lives have different measures be
it grades be it Sports be it games other
things that we measure ourselves against
and again this is where I think the AI
balances can be so important because
often we lose sight of what we actually
want to do like this is again I
mentioned Clayton Christenson earlier I
think he's got fantastic business
thinking he had a stroke Cancer and a
heart attack
whoa and then he came back from there he
lost the ability to speak and he wrote
this book how will you measure your life
because he was like schol mates with
just Skilling from Enron and all sorts
of things of business knowledge but then
also how many of us stop to think but at
the end of our Lives what will we
measure ourselves against what's our
progress what are our performance
indicators right because we get caught
up in life all the time and so we kind
of have localized Maxima we don't have
broader Maxima and you might identify
that as by the time you're 18 you spent
95% of the time all time you spent with
your family with your parents you know
probably 98% in some cases and what am I
actually maximizing for what am I
measuring against CU you can't manage
what you can't measure but again am I
adding any value because the key reason
that I think you're going to have you
have the protests that you have the lack
of belief for the kids that you're
talking about there crisis of mental
health I have no control of my own
destiny I can't do anything I have no
value you know and I'm looking at social
media and everyone's got value and
they're showing value and I'm not
anything like them and I had this
promise of this American dream or this
social contract that just doesn't exist
anymore and why there nothing I can do
about it once you believe you can do
something about it then that changes
your entire perspective and it's crazy
because any of us can okay I don't have
talent in making food I can go and
convince a bunch of amazing chefs make a
restaurant and pull it together and then
we can do it but so can anyone else
listenting
this but they won't you know
because very few people do do that but
those who do can be successful there's
always a fear of failure there's always
a fear of can I even do that if you
can't do it you can convince someone who
can I think increase agency you know
have self-directing value systems be a
bit more intentional about how you do it
use the AI to help that because you can
help think through it these are the
types of things I think may help but
it's not easy then and again actually
one of the amazing things of this is
that we have a lot of global problems
mental health climate this that birth
rate they say I can finally push and
tell to the edge but what we teach that
Ai and how we align it is going to be
the most important thing and that isn't
alignment for making sure it doesn't
kill all the humans I think that's maybe
a data question other things we can do
it is some of these things that you're
discussing right now and we have to
build that intentionally as a society
how do we avoid Black Mirror I want the
benefits of AI but I don't want to end
up in this sort of emotional uncanny
valley again as a video game developer I
think about this a lot I want to bring
really rad things into my game like
Elden ring where you really have a sense
of I made progress I accomplished
something this was fun I get that it's
just a game but it was just tremendously
enjoyable but there's a phenomenal
episode of Black Mirror where the
woman's I think fiance dies and um she's
able to get a robot with his AI in it it
looks like him it talks like him it
sounds like him but some part of her
know he's deeply comforting at first
deeply comforting but some part of her
knows it's not him how do we escape that
I can get what I want which is my
grandma back my grandpa my parents uh
lover that passed away whatever but it's
not really them and so there is some
dark offkey note that's struck how how
do we have our cake and eat it too imod
I think it's just against societal Norms
where it's a dangerous Society I think
some level of Regulation is needed
again the same with the Gat Mechanics
for video games the loot box mechanics
and more like what you just describe so
are you saying pass pass a law that
doesn't let you bring your dead wife
back in robot form no because I think
some people will want that and again but
then the question is what's the
permission system because they should
have give permission for something like
that right these are things whereby
legislation and Society I think again
needs to have just groups of talented
people that can can help inform and they
can help adapt to that and there's a
commonality of this because the dead
wife back dead husband back is same
across everyone in the world potentially
the cost of building an
AI that can replicate and again it will
be available on WhatsApp video anything
to talk to you of a loved one who's
about to pass away is probably going to
be 100 bucks next
year 100
bucks that's insane and 50 sense per
million words they
say and any language anywhere just need
some of their history and them to chat a
little bit and I have the voice I have
everything so this is moving so fast
with things like that which again that
will have a real emotional impact you
might find it discordant but someone
else might not and so again this is the
thing where you know you want your
libertarianism versus kind of other
stuff one of the most difficult things
is again we're very privileged we grow
up any where we have and then but we
also push through we have our own
viewpoints in the world the reality is
AI will be used differently by everyone
around the world and some people will
use it to enslave some people will use
it to emancipate
right but it can't just be that there is
only a few choices you need to
proliferate some of the choices and
again we need to set some standards
around this because these are really
hard things like I'm they bringing back
loved ones I don't know how I feel about
it but I don't think it's something we
should legislate against but it's
something we should definitely look into
the harms of right because I can see the
posit positive and the negative and that
applies to so many uses of this
technology because it reflects us and
it's actually come from our collective
intelligence intet which again is kind
of crazy we need better data sets and it
resonates which is the crazy thing again
once you hear an AI whisper to you you
know with full emotion it's
crazy once you see it I think the latest
video technology when you agree it's
broken Through The Uncanny valy now
whereby it's incredible you and I have
trained
eyes like I would say until a couple of
months ago I'd be like I see something
instantly that's the eye now I'm
like can't like then I go and look yeah
and I can see some subtle things right
but just again my fast thinking is like
I can't tell anymore so that's why I
think we need to set standards around it
we need to adapt we need to proliferate
those but then we also need to again
allow for Liberty allow for use as long
as doesn't infringe upon the rights of
others and that's really
hard that's why we need to distribute
this intelligence we need an open
distributed intelligent AI system and
then we'll have the proprietary ones and
all these other ones too but it needs to
exist with the best standards we can
have so you can say what is the best way
to teach
calculus shouldn't be taught all is
another question right but that might
not be the way you teach it because of
your local curricular but eventually we
want to move our infrastructure of
thought towards an optimized thing we
want to build a society OS and
reconstruct it and this is the one
chance we get at that right and my view
is that countries and communities that
Embrace this and take the best of our
generalized common knowledge and these
systems will perform those that don't
and so again if you set good standards
that's huge
potential for a incredibly positive view
of humanity where we can solve and
coordinate to most of the
problems that can adapt to all the bad
stuff again this OA Loop because we
don't know what we don't know might
emerge like it may be that there's an AI
that figures out how to hypnotize
people what will you do when that
emerges and it's controlled it can be a
foreign adversary it can be
Facebook how are we going to react to
that like literally hypnosis
no kind of works right Welcome To My
Nightmare but again these are we don't
we need to build systems that are more
robust self adapting and I think we can
only do that with AI what would you give
them as your best argument for why AI is
going to be
awesome um I think it depends on your
framing but the most powerful thing I've
basically thought of
is AI is like those really talented
graduate assistants that we wish we had
but we can be sure of and what does that
mean it means we can do things we can
never do before the very practical thing
is we're all going to die right and it's
probably going to be through some
sickness all of us know someone in our
lives who've had cancer Alzheimer's
dementia one of these conditions you
will have an AI in a year or two that
gives you comprehensive authoritative
upto-date knowledge on these conditions
through your journey and outperforms
human doctors on empathy and is
available in every language from the
medical side to you know how to talk to
your family mental health and more over
the coming years that's something that
could never been done before and that
will reduce human suffering because the
loss of agency you feel when you get one
of those diagnosis is insane right and
again like it's difficult to find the
support you need that's just one small
example and I think that once we have
that right framing we can think of many
more examples where we just wish I wish
I had some experts around me I wish I
had support I wish I had help in the
digital and Physical Realm
do you so uh I just wrote down small uh
if that's a small example which already
sounds pretty insane what are some of
the ways that you think Society will be
positively impacted as you think about
those ripples away from just the
individual what ends up happening to
society I think that the infrastructure
of our society is based on text and
reports and
bureaucracy if you think about something
like us elections are coming up you know
it be a unpleasant time right having the
ability to embed a intelligence and the
government to check every single policy
and then make it relevant to you and
explain it comprehensively will be
awesome for understanding candid
positions but then also for going to the
DMV and getting your driver's license
you know that will be automated in some
number of years may take longer may take
sooner depending on our capabilities but
every single one of the things that you
find frustration about where there's
this bee to report framework where
there's this idea the image video the
barriers are being reduced for all of
those the information will flow more
freely and again think about most of
your frustrations in life it's like due
to lack of agency it's due to
frustration over systems of information
getting stuff done or access to
information all those barriers will be
brought down by this technology having
that role of again these talented
everywhere and there's no part of
Information Society that doesn't impact
so hopefully you know it'll help us
reduce frustration increase flow
increase our you know fun quotients as
well and maybe make things more
functional so that is when you talk
about a grad student I think that is
something that's really clear for people
that are in the quote unquote Elite
bucket but for the average person how's
this going to impact them because I
think the average person is panicking
cuz they think about their job and they
think this is going to be automated away
and it really might be and so if you
were talking to somebody who you say oh
it's like having a grad student in your
pocket they're like I I don't even know
what that is I don't care about grad
students um why is their life going to
be
better well because they can do more you
know this is the thing where why you've
always had technology like spreadsheets
came it changed counting and other
things but you know it created brand new
drops the main conern that we've heard
we discussed this last year I think you
know was can you create the new jobs
quick enough but the reality is anyone
listening to this can do their more more
effectively using this technology even
if it's in the report writing phase
everyone has to write something or
summarizing emails this technology start
to seep in Siri will actually be useful
right like
again if it's not a grad student it's a
hire you know a junior hire you want
someone to help you and bringing that
hire in will be impactful and they'll do
what it says on the table
all these issues like hallucinations
where the AI makes something up you know
all these issues about the AI going
wonky they're being slowly ironed out
and now you get these really reliable
partners that can work with you that's
on the productivity side then there's
the other side which is the creativity
side you useo use udio use mid Journey
now you use grock's image generation but
you can never generate images like you
can now and now video is coming you can
make
music and it's one something making that
instant you know just playing around
with promps once you actually start to
apply yourself just like anything your
creative capabilties have gone
dramatically up now what does that mean
it means that as you're doing your job
the question is if I had helpers how
could I do my job better then you'll out
compete those that do not Embrace this
technology because the pace of
technological adoption is always slower
than you'd expect until it isn't and
right now we're in this building phase
where everyone's trying this technology
but the implementation will come in a
few years you know but then it'll come
as a wave so if you've got one two years
experience applying this technology to
whatever your job is you know to make it
more efficient to make yourself more
productive then you'll do
better okay so let me give you what I
see is the the big problems that we're
facing as a society today and let me
know if AI helps uh and if so how so
right now I think people really feel the
sting of inflation prices skyrocketed
during covid uh they have not come back
down people do not feel good at the
grocery store aumer has 10% of the
buying power that a boomer had at the
exact same age in their 20s um there's a
a just Mental Health crisis in young
people parents rightly are freaking out
they don't know what to do about it and
I think a lot of people look at Ai and
go oh my God like this is just the the
Tik Tok algorithm come to life it's
going to suck my child into a black hole
this is not good EOD these are all bad
things what do you say to that basket of
I just want to be able to pay for things
I just want my kids to be okay how's AI
gonna help there or is it
not well I think you know AI is a very
broad thing so a Tik Tok AI is different
to generative AI is different to
Facebook AI in some ways different to a
Siri um it could be an incredibly
negative future you know these things
are dangerous you see them hijack the
minds of a generation and now it could
be amped but again like I said the the
flip side there's the positive side like
how could we use this positively so you
look at things like inflation inflation
is a monetary phenomenon here whereby
we're suffering the overhang for the
stimulus spending during Co which you
know nobody knew how much we had to
spend we didn't know if how people would
die and now it's the overhang from that
so inflation started to come down a bit
but buy he said buying poers decreased
in general because of this
when you look at the components of
inflation food and other things I think
that and you look at Ai and you think
about massive numbers of graduates
digital graduates entering the
workforce it's probably going to be
deflationary but the question is can you
have the stuff you need for living
that's your hygiene Factor you know the
stuff you need not to otherother and in
fact I think I can't remember who said
it there someone said there's only two
types of things things that are living
for living and entertainment but we've
got to get to that basic level first and
having more efficient systems to
organize things to remove bureaucracy to
remove this overhead could help with
that it should be deflationary taking
apart bureaucracies doing these things
there's a question of jobs and a
question of let's say the American dream
like what is the American dream if you
strive hard you work hard you can be
successful I think part of this crisis
is given all the knocks that we've seen
he said parents think about their kids
if my kid tries hard can they be
successful particularly when the AI are
coming
you know like any I said at the start of
last year in five years there are no
more programmers I should have added as
we know it just like you know we grew up
with the flash programmers flash was
programming you know and other things
the nature will change like if you use
Claude from anthropic right now you can
make games basic games like snake and
others just by typing and telling it how
to edit it and it will do it live right
there it's more proficient than most
graduate programmers but that means the
level of graduate programming has to
increase so I think that when we look at
that this is the key worry is can we
create the jobs in time or will it be
enough of a demand response from The
increased amounts of entertainment and
productivity to allow these kids to have
careers and what will those look like
that's a really complicated question
when I think about things like housing
inflation others and monetary things I
think that it's deflationary and the
cost of
living right and the cost of organizing
right will drop and you know again these
are very basic things like
the fat in the US system you know like
how much does LA or San Francisco spend
on
homelessness it's over $100,000 per
person per
year AI can easily deconstruct all that
spending and Route it more appropriately
when will that happen I know 5 10 years
out right but then you apply that to
almost every part of living and you can
see how it can make it more efficient
and more accessible but we've got these
competing factors here whereby costs
will come down but will'll demand catch
up and you know this opens up that
question of do we need Ubi do we need
Universal basic jobs do we need more
stimulus it all depends on the pace of
adoption of this technology and how we
deploy
it okay so we'll get to the the downside
of it first but give me the the positive
look at this deployed well what does
that look like what would we need to do
so integrating into the government that
seems really smart not only so that I
can or everybody can understand these
are the candidates these are the
positions you know that bill that they
dropped last night that you know is 1900
pages and it has to be voted on tomorrow
here's the summation here are the key
points here are the things they trying
to sneak in super helpful transparency
on budgeting super helpful um but what
are other ways that you can see where if
we integrate this into society well that
it drives cost down where people care
without triggering that existential
crisis of well now what do I do as a
human so I think if we look at regulated
sectors these are two very important
ones like let's start with two things
education and
Healthcare um you know after the recent
I think Trump musk debate uh discussion
I think they said you know why even have
a Department of Education in the US if
educational outcomes are what they are
like kids graduating from school not
being lectur is
insane yeah right and what is school
it's Child Care mixed with a Cal State
game mixed with a petri dish in many
cases right the only thing that's been
proven to work in education is called
the bloom effect two standard deviation
Improvement outcomes is one to on
tuition sometime in the near future
every single child should have their own
personalized AI tutor that can tell are
they auditory are they visual Learners
do they have dyslexia and adapt the
curriculum to them and encourage them to
engage with others and increase their
agency basically help them on the
educational path
again one to one tuition has a two
standard deviation Improvement it's the
only thing that's proven to work in
education really so something like that
could transform the education seor from
an information going back and forth with
the kids and again bringing the kids
together to do stuff now the question is
who's going to build it you know and
who's going to build it right and
implement it we'll come back to later so
Healthcare is another one the average US
life expectancy has been dropping but
everyone else has been increasing and
saying is that the US spends more than
the UK as a percentage of GDP on public
healthare yet you will have to have
private healthcare as
well and you UK Healthcare isn't bad
isn't great but again you don't have
that Health that you deserve and
ultimately it's your health that's going
to get you your health impacts every
part of your life and ultimately we all
will die what if we could reduce many of
these things and that again is your
personal Healthcare body but also I
think every medical diagnosis
has to be checked by AI before the
diagnosis is made by AI it'll be
malpractice not to have that and how
many lives could be saved we all know
people that have had botch diagnosis
botch this botch that you won't have
that with ai ai out performs human do on
diagnosis as well as like say empathy so
when you kind of look at all the sectors
that are regulated they usually
regulated because they have a real human
impact and much of the issue is
information flow and personalization the
teacher cannot teach 30 kids at once
because their attention is split the
Align misaligned incentives and the
thing is we all know people who start
and want to become teachers and doctors
and in the government most of them start
with ideals and they have them beat them
out out of them by the system right they
can't reach everyone we see this again
and again and again this technology can
change because you can have personalized
information for every single individual
relevant to
them and you can coordinate information
as well our Collective knowledge so this
is where we should have all the cancer
knowledge in the world comprehensively
authoritatively and up to date available
to anyone at any time as a public good
for example again that just needs to be
built so I'd say those are the types of
areas the regulated Industries where you
can have a transformation government
education Healthcare and more and that's
again what you need for living then
there's the other side which is
entertainment which is we all know
creatives and how much does it cost to
make a movie well it's getting smaller
and smaller how much does it cost to
make a video game how much does it cost
to tell you a story you know like Tik
Tok was um one of the first indications
where you know you're short doing short
clips right but we both I think agree in
a few years you'll be able to make
Hollywood length movies because movies
are just made of two and a half second
shots now it might not just be type of
prompt I don't think that's what we're
talking about we're talking about I want
to tell a story I want the control over
that we have the generative capabilities
that we can do that be it music be it
movies be it more and again it can
transform because you're no longer
constrained to to the medium like why
should songs be 3 minutes long you know
like what is the appropriate way to tell
a story is it Snippets is it large movie
you can play around with it you can take
this podcast and translate it into a 100
languages now and it'll have your voice
and my voice but I think these are some
of the things I've been thinking about
like again that's just having a bigger
team around you and a team that's on
your side when it comes to regulated
industry and increase transparency
breaking down the barriers and like on
the creative side it's building the
tools that
remove the barriers to people telling
those
stories all right I'm going to look at
everything through an optimistic lens
for now like I said again we'll we'll
get to the darker sides of this um I'm
going to paint a picture this is what I
actually think is going to happen but if
you spot any naive elements in this uh
please Point them out because I really
do want an accurate vision of the future
more than just an exciting one um but
when I look out at the world there a few
things that I see number one is the
Health crisis you've already talked
about that I'm going to have something
in my pocket that's going to help
diagnose or if I've already been
diagnosed by a standard physician that
it's keeping me a breast of all the
research that's coming out that is
unique or that applies to me it's going
to know my uh DNA it's going to know my
microbiome so it will have a better
understanding of how someone with my
makeup is going to metabolize a given
drug and so is there a trial or
something that I should be going after I
think that will be huge um I think the
mental Health crisis is absolutely
massive and I think being able to help
with that I think AI is going to be
tremendously advantageous because here's
how I see it working you're going to be
wearing devices that are taking a an
objective snapshot of your realtime
physiology so where is your heart rate
it will detect a spike in anxiety how
well are you sleeping what's your blood
oxygen level all things that we can read
already but it's just so much data it
becomes very difficult to correlate to a
thing I just did or something that I saw
or encountered or what I ate which would
be a huge part of this and it's tracking
this just incredibly multivariate thing
and saying oh right now you just
encountered this thing it's triggering a
stress response you need to relax or hey
you've been relaxing too much you need
to push yourself um given the patterns
that we've seen on the days you're more
active or the days where your anxiety's
lower your depression is or whatever and
use the biof feedback as a way to get
out of sort of the you know talk to me
about it because I think that talk to me
about it there's some question marks
around how um helpful that is depending
on how your therapist is running the
session so therapy is one of those
things I think can go very right and I
think it can go very wrong so if we have
if we introduce the biological data into
that feedback loop I think I think
things get a lot better uh and then uh
education again you've already talked us
through that but that one toone
curriculum I think is incredibly
important and your AI being to being
able to flag for you where you're at are
you ahead are you behind you've told it
the things that you want to optimize for
in your life and it's like well you say
you want to optimize for that but you're
doing these things they don't really
align with your goals what if you took
this course whatever and then the last
one is and this might be the most
important is all throughout history
every time that you get into a um very
concentrated urban area which you can
read as a proxy for um safety stability
in society the whole strong men make
good times good times make weak men that
whole cycle um population declines
that's not only a modern phenomena
that's happened over and over and over
and when you look at the different um
population collapses they've always been
tied to a precipitous drop in birth rate
which obviously we're seeing now just
rapid beyond all measure uh especially
in South Korea Japan uh America's not
doing great not doing it as badly but
you're seeing it in in a lot of places
now my hope with the population collapse
is that um one just that AI can do all
the things with health uh read into
goals in terms of helping steer people's
behavior so that they want to have
children that they can be on that track
that the AI can help them not be 36 and
suddenly realize they want to do it but
be advising them much earlier but
possibly more important and I'd love to
get your take on uh this very
specifically is Robotics and that as we
get this upside down pyramid of a ton of
old people and not nearly enough young
people to support them uh that robots
and or embodied AI if you will which is
another way of saying robots uh will be
able to step in and take care of that
burden so that not all bright minds of
the Young Generation are sucked into
elder care what do you think about that
is that any of that poana or does that
true I think that a little reasonable
like I think the mental health one is a
particularly interesting one because
there's your biomarkers it's also your
voice you know you can tell a lot from a
person by the way they're speaking and
just picking up on that and again that's
what good therapist can do the AI can do
that even better now we've got we've
seen some research that'll be coming out
soon about that being able to pick up
the Timber and also respond with the
correct
voice like there's a bit of a black
mirror is uh thing I've been thinking
about recently you know whereby this is
the BBC show about dystopian views of
the future I'm not sure that's a good
thing or bad thing I'm not sure we
discussed it before given a few hours of
discussion with someone I can recreate a
perfect loan of them in terms of voice
reaction you can WhatsApp them you can
call them you can even have zooms with
them now live and you won't be able to
tell that sounds creepy but what if it
is a loved one that's about to pass away
you know your grandma someone that you
trust who's always looked out for you
then imagine that person being with you
throughout and supporting
you now that's simultaneously horrifying
and slightly comforting but it gives you
an idea of kind of the stuff that is now
possible because like I said you can
zoom with them you can text them you can
call them maybe one day there'll be a
robot is that positive for mental health
or negative it can be again be both ways
this is a dual technology right but I
think it reflects the fact that the AIS
that are coming there's a classical big
data and we have this measured life with
our fit bits and all of that right and a
lot of these Healthcare things are like
dashboard based I can measure this and
some of our brains accept for that but
then there's nothing like someone next
to us telling us you're doing okay or
you know shape up and we will put so
much trust in these AIS that are next to
us because we have to remember as well
you know this isn't a not like when you
look at the distribution of intelligence
with intelligence is coming into the
community now right they were building
artificial
intelligences half of America half of
the world is under 100 on IQ that's just
the way it
is it's a normal distribution right
ouch now 95% of people think they're
above I
IQ you know and in places where there's
malnutrition it can be as low as 80 on
average for Nations US states go from 95
to 105 on
average but if you think about that like
many of us technologists we build for
like people who've had very privileged
lives and we live in bubble right but if
you think about 10 20 30 years from now
and many of these things it's like
people didn't have the opportunity they
didn't have the chance they've had
malnutrition kind of bad backgrounds or
they just red with junk they don't
believe all of a sudden like I think
anthropic did an IQ test on Claude it
hit
100 but then it will also again be able
to speak to you in the most comforting
voice in the world or tell you that you
need to shape up or these other things
and so again when I think of mental
health I see this range of things from
recreating your grandma before they away
so you can always get their wisdom to I
don't know like Aristotle who just your
own personality that grows with you and
I don't think we've ever we' never even
be able to explore or conceive that
technology right but again I know if
someone I trust tells me to do something
I want to work hard for them and that's
the most difficult thing again not these
dashboards and these big data kind of
things it works for certain Quantified
minds but nothing kind of Beats that
kind word you know at the right time
time so this is why I think it will be
huge for mental health
for kind of feedback loops it could also
be incredibly dangerous you know but
again we're doing the positive side of
things there aren't enough people to
support people that's why like I said
something
like a loved one had a diagnosis of
pancreatic cancer and so for a week I
thought she's going to die a thousand AI
AG just analyze everything canc a 5%
survival rate right and then turn out to
be a misdiagnosis after we build
analysis but think about everyone who
gets diagnosed with them the loss of
agency they feel there's not enough
humans in the world to support
appropriately but it should be a
combination of the AI helping and
bringing the right humans to support you
as well because again nothing beats real
world
contact until you have robots I think
again the embodied AIS the pace of
Robotics has leap frogged in the last
year or two um there's a company in
China called unry they have a robot
called the G1 have you seen that one
no so the G1 um is 5'2 34
kg and can run at four miles per hour it
can make you an omelet and it's got uh
reinforcement learning so if one robot
learns Kung Fu the other robots can
learn Kung Fu as well and it's
$116,000 so you can look it up the unry
G1 Elon mask reckons the Tesla Optimus
will be to $20,000 I reckon it will be
as well and so right now they look a bit
weird but again they'll look more and
more human they'll be able to speak
human because I think you don't want to
get this uncanny valley thing where you
got this plastic face but again we
respond a lot to voice and you look at
AI voices now they're perfect right but
you can't tell anymore with 11 labs and
hen and other things like that again you
can have your voice in 20 30 40
languages now your voice but in
Spanish so but I look at that I'm
like there not this Blade Runner future
where it's kind of Flesh Bots and
everything I just think again robots
will be there alongside us but there is
a difference again with this
embodiedness just like you know we like
our dogs and the kind of things like
that but all of a sudden they've got a
level of Engagement is it sentience as
AGI know but again they're there and
they can communicate with you they can
be your brist they can do that they can
do that and you said this kind of fixes
the population pyramid and it's very
interesting that the place that will
make the most robots is China right
which has why do you think they make the
most 27% of the Chinese economy is
industry apart from they're the biggest
industrial producer in the world where
do most of the cars in the world come
from
right uh there's 80 million cars and 70
million motorcycles built a year in a
few years I'm pretty sure the number of
robots will get up to 100 million a year
again it was $10,000
$20,000 put that another context when
you look at the cost of you know you can
look at like buying a car if you buy a
$10,000 car how much does it cost a
lease a month like a 100
bucks for 100 bucks you will have a 5
foot6
robot that can do that can make you
omelets or look at a recipe and then
make it instantly that can learn from
other robots that has fine grain control
like again when you look at unry G1 it
like it's got a coke bottle it flips its
finger and the coke bottle app goes off
you know that's the level of control
we've got now so this will be useful and
we're seeing studies whereby you know
robots and personal assistance help the
elderly like how much does the US spend
on Elder Care versus child care you know
a lot more already and they said this is
coming we want to increase the
population I think you know we've seen
the studies around lack of testosterone
we've seen the studies around the
hygiene factors of people not wanting to
have kids they can't be sure about the
future we want to bring them but you
know it's positive to have this but we
need
help yeah and so if we can't find the
human help we need to have digital help
and I get digital help that can talk to
us of our level and understand us better
than anyone and that's why we make sure
that's aligned it's physical help you
know the embodied help around you that
can help you physically with doing all
the tasks you might need but then also
like going beyond that and again there's
a shocking thing around the cost of all
of this right
like it's $8 a month for Brock on
X and that includes a subscription to
make as many images as you want and edit
them and an AI That's like open AI
level it would have thought it'd be that
cheap you know we're talking $100 a
month to lease a
robot that can maybe do 95% of our human
who would have thought it' be that
cheap and so again it opens up this
massive world of support whereby you can
have as much support as you need because
you're not limited like if I want to go
and hire that personal trainer it costs
how much right human personal trainer
will still be good but then the
availability of therapists personal
trainers waiters other things goes up
dramatically and again there are
negatives for that and there needs to be
the economic response but for many
things it is also a positive when you
think again about I think the hygiene
factors of humanity the living
factors and you know then you've got the
flourishing factors
right if we can get the economy right if
we can get meaning right and some of
these other
things so how are entrepreneurs going to
use this I know a lot of young people uh
beginning entrepreneurs they're going to
want to know how they leverage this
their advantage is there an opportunity
for wealth creation is this just going
to come at all at once that um there'll
be no competitive advantage or is there
a window here where people people can
take advantage of
this so you know started as a programmer
23 years ago I was writing directly
assembler code so directly almost to the
hardware then programming became about
these bundle libraries of like this is
how you make an iPhone app template
things like that you built up levels
from
that still when you look at the banking
system it runs on cobal and Fortran
which I believe were made in
1960s stuff takes time to upgrade people
don't want to include what are basically
research models because this is still
research not engineering a lot of AI
Cutting Edge stuff you don't want
Cutting Edge for your education your
healthare your critical systems you want
stuff that's tried and tested but like I
said this will be both longer and
quicker than we expect quicker because
we're already seeing it appear and it
just seamlessly goes in and breaks down
these barriers longer because it's not
going to go everywhere in society all at
once because again you can't take the
risk you need you can't blame the AI
right
um but that transformation we remember
the do transformation you know we
remember many of these Transformations
just embracing this technology using
this technology and helping people with
that is an amazing business doesn't
matter which sector you're in you know
again the mental model is you know we
wrote this piece how to think about AI
where we go through some of these we
were like think about it like you
discovered this new consonant of
graduates that are specializing and how
you going to deploy that to your
personal life your company country
whatever but your company because it's
so hard to find good people think about
things in terms of flows not files so
right now we're outputting image or a
text but eventually be multi-step like
that whole process of writing a report
and getting all the information in
multiple steps we will be captured that
flow you know or in images and video we
have this system called comy UI that we
built at stability
AI which I left a little while ago for a
company whereby when you input a prompt
it captures it but then every single
edit to that prompt that you do and
every single additional model you use
for upscaling and then if I send you
that file it reconstructs the whole flow
so files to flows and the final kind of
point we make and again there's a lot
more to it you can check it out on our
Twitter substack um is just you're
moving from thinking about the world in
terms of these autonomous agents that
will just get rid of all human endeavor
to how can we make people more agentic
so if you're an entrepreneur the best
thing to do is like how can I help my
customer well all businesses are the
cost is less than the value created so
it's all about how can I help my
customer achieve
more how could I do it myself we're
already seeing you know many of the V uh
startups that I'm seeing and small
companies they don't need to hire as
many people for Content creation as they
used to before you know they're using
some basic agent based system they're
using basic AI to be able to iterate and
develop
faster because I think there is a
increase in reach so again
systems like hen like 11
Labs any podcast you do is you can make
it in how many many languages you want
right that's an instant increase in
reach who knows maybe this will be
popular in India or China or whever
right there's an increase in velocity so
ideation you know again for
entrepreneurs that's incredibly powerful
because you can give it something like a
Claude a set of principles like this is
my idea for a business and you analyze
it according to Porter's five forces
or you know hey you're a Stanford NBA or
Harvard NBA can you break it down for me
and then you can interrogate it and
it'll just go back at you so the
ideation phase is important what could
go wrong with this idea I'm having a
problem like again just having a bud
that kind of gets you and there's a cost
decrease side things that you
classically employed had to find people
for which is the most hard thing when
you're entrepreneur because you're
unproven you can offload a lot of that
to the AI or to people that use AI
which I think is more important and so
you know that helps have more
generalists I think um and again time to
Market Market size access and then
quality of service all right walk me
through how this is actually going to
happen so when I think about these um
potential employees for somebody that
wants to use AI let's say you're going
to staff your company up with 8 to 10
people uh you know all of them being AI
but you're going to want them the
thetically to
specialize so will it be just one AI is
capable of going in any direction so you
just take off the shelf nine or 10 uh
generic AIS and you say you you're in
charge of this or is it one Ai and you
just say Okay do this task in this way
do this task in this way so on and so
forth so we built the first models for
creation you know and again we've got to
human level in these narrow Fields now
we're creating these flows and design
patterns of jobs so you've got your
liberal arts grad now they're
specializing so off the shelf now you
look at something like intercom right
which many of us have used for the chat
responses you know the helps side that
thing on the bottom right that you click
on and then you can chat uh intercom
have changed their business model
introducing AI now so they have an AI
agent that looks at all your previous
answers and you actually only pay
intercom for every resolved query it's
not even a subscription service anymore
everything is just fascinating but
you're seeing call center work come now
that again can be your entire customer
support but when I say entire I don't
actually mean entire because a much
better system is that you need to have a
manager for the AIS we haven't developed
the AI manager yet so one person
managing all these AIS and again they're
getting increasing customized is quite a
lot but it doesn't mean that you can't
have someone that you to solve the
problem of customer service for my
product and you to hire all these
customer service reps and you've
actually got better outcomes according
to the data that's been coming out
already
you know you've got your sales Outreach
and your sales call likely massively
automated now services are popping out
for that including engaging you don't
know it's an AI effectively whereas
previously you had how many sales reps
for a lot of these things advertising
SEO design you can expect a lot more
from your designers now like there's a
minimum level of quality that's going up
but again the designer probably going to
be managing a series of AIS so I think
that we haven't moved we're moving up
the level now from these generalized
models these more Specialized Service is
but if you still need to have your
managers I think managing these services
and again a human in the loop just to
check because they're not quite good
enough they'll break through to good
enough but again the most difficult
thing as an entrepreneur as someone
trying to make a difference is hiring
the right people to support you in these
functions as you yourself move from a
generalist to specialist building a
team and these AIS and these systems
have flaws and issues which I think you
still need human Loop but they're
improving fast but again I think that's
the mental model that you need to have
When approaching this what are the
functional components of my business and
which of these Services can I introduce
to have cheaper cost better experience
faster iteration
right and that differs area to area if I
think about this as an entrepreneur the
thing that immediately jumps to mind is
if these are all pre-made I'm not going
to have an advantage you're going to
help me lower my cost of doing a thing
that I need to do so take customer
service if I'm the only one with a
customer service Ai and it delivers
better results I'm in a great position
if we all have customer service AI now
it's neutral again unless I have control
over the knobs that allow me to make my
AI customer service better so take
culture I can inject culture into my Ai
and have a competitive advantage over my
competitors just because they don't uh
for instance back at Quest we used to
say if you call this up and said hey I
really want to get in shape what should
I eat we would say chicken breast and
broccoli now that was like at the time
everyone just thought that was crazy but
it was this I won't say viral thing but
it definitely caught on people were
talking about it because we didn't
promote our own product we told people
look we know where we fit in the dietary
ecosystem you're better off eating Whole
Food whenever you can but if you want to
snack then by all means have one of our
bars and so that
mentality was an advantage but if I'm
stuck with an agent that just handles
things in sort of a generic way I'm
trapped how when will that level of
control be available where I can take
something off the shelf so I don't have
to create it but I can dial The Knobs in
a way that's unique only to me it's
available right now again these are like
like said Lial out sprads shall we say
you know they have a wide range but
there's something called a context
window so that's the prompt that you
type in most people when you type in
like 50 100
words um opening
eyes GPT when it first came out could
take 2,000
words Google's latest models can take
two million words wow or videos or audio
all at
once so you can inject entire training
courses and your company Bible and books
that you've given about your company
culture and like
sessions and it will at inference time
the time when it runs and
responds assimilate all of
that and that's crazy right like again
you created a culture guide your
company you can put that in the
prompt you don't need to fine tune a
model even so the fine tuning is when
you put it in the model permanently and
again like to give you an idea now where
the costs have gone they dropped like
probably 500 times the latest uh Gemini
flash model is I think 15 cents for a
million words of output and fine tuning
is
free previously it was like
$150
wow so and again you can have your
entire culture handbook in there so like
customer service again it depends is
this a distributional thing or is it a
cost right and so businesses are
repeatable
processes and like were you the first Ed
bar in the market you know like I buy
bottled water there are many intangibles
around brand around classical
products that once you really understand
where your cost your distribution base
is and these other
things that's where you apply the AI and
again where is your Edge your Edge is
ultimately in your engagement with the
people that think you're giving value
and are paying for that whatever that
might be you know like clayon
Christensen um I departed hard bual
Professor came with disruptive
innovation had this jobs to be done
model where he said any
product is part of a job to be done the
McDonald's milkshake in the morning is
uh quite thick because you're drinking
it on the way to work in your car in
America whereas in the afternoon they
make it thin and runny because your
kid's drinking it and you don't want
them to be sucking on it for too long
you know but he said that there's a
functional a social and emotional
component to any of these so again as we
look at the classical business theor and
what's worked it hasn't changed it's
just that we've got a new Workforce and
the workforce listens to
instructions but how many people on this
call have realized soorry this podcast
listening to it have realized that you
can give 30,000 words of instruction to
a chat GPT that you should treat it just
like a new
hire you can list out all the
instructions and it'll follow them you
know instead they just type in little
bits and they're just like oh why isn't
it consistent in its response right
now if you give it the consistent
context will it give you the same output
every time you can make it give you
exactly the same output every time so
open I just released this feature called
Json output which is structured data
100% reliable output for
example so again that used to be 60% at
the start of the year now you're
like was very inconsistent at the
beginning same with the image creation
okay so um we've we've got a lot of cool
things going on at the AI level a lot of
it feels like it's not quite here but if
I lean into things that aren't quite
here but that seem like they're coming
around the corner uh Elon Musk with what
he's doing with neurolink uh I believe
they already have two human patients
when I look at the future of AI it seems
inevitable to me that to keep up with AI
especially as it becomes embodied we are
going to have a choice uh and I think to
not end up in a position where you have
something that just so outstrips your
intelligence your ability to communicate
your ability to perceive the world I
mean just absolutely get left in the
dust no longer the dominant species on
the planet uh you're going to have to
consider augmentation what do you think
about what's going on at neuralink uh
could you see yourself in the future
embracing it our phones are on neuralink
at the
moment so the whole concept of neuralink
was that you know we're having a
discussion right now we're exchanging
information but it's like that much
information what if I could jack myself
in and just almost communicate
seemlessly all of the context at all
times you would have better input and
output and again you said that's how you
can compete with these AI because an AI
that can accept a thousand words of
instruction is kind of human right an AI
that can accept two million words of
instruction that's something we've never
seen before because you look at the
thing it's got like 99% accuracy as well
and again to give you some context on
this you can upload an entire like
season of a TV show and ask it to pull
out the funniest parts where your humor
is defined by
Seinfeld relevant to that and it will do
that in one
go a human canot do that right without
like weeks of effort you can do your
entire code based and show yourself
debugging it a video and it will
interplate all of that so when we look
at that that LEL of information like
bandwidth is you know one of the key
components of
neuralink right now it's being use for
people that having issues conveying
information to their arms their legs you
know getting out there because they're
paralyzed Etc but we're all kind of
paralyzed in the information we input we
output and by our own I think Elon
refers to it as limic
systems like we get in our own way a lot
like come on how many of you us are kind
of about achieving our potential
so having a self-regulating system does
it need to be invasive maybe maybe not
it's going to be insane the example I
gave earlier was the voice kind of
talking to you into your earpods as an
example but what if it's stacked
directly into you it's standardized
we're wearing glasses we will have
augmented glasses from meta coming soon
that kind of do that I don't know if
you've got the meta Ray bands they're
kind of cool can record everything as
you go but now you'll have the display
coming up we again our phones are
augmenting I think it will be a number
of years for various safety reasons and
others I don't think we need it to
compete with the AIS but again we're
moving into this world of
like a person with a phone is going to
compete some without a phone it' be like
saying I don't want
internet you know and again it's an
information bandwidth and information
customization thing just like Twitter
and Tik Tok are optimized for a phone
you'll have information that's optimized
for brain computer interfaces
and maybe the first step of that is the
voice in your ear customizing to exactly
what you want to hear in the way that
you want to hear
it do you have a base assumption about
how humans and AI will interact that
makes you say that we won't necessarily
need uh brain computer interface to
compete with AI because that seems
self-evident to me that we either have
an AI That's treating us kindly and just
telling us everything that we want uh
but we are very much beneath them on the
intellectual food chain or we augment I
don't other than genetic engineering I
don't see a way around the truth of that
statement well it's like saying that you
know we can't out compete smarter people
than us there people smarter than you
and I right the're people more
accomplished than you and I I think
they're just citizens in society how
dare you
OT not not not as Charming Tom not as
Charming obviously
not yeah but
look I think again my base assumption is
this will be augmenting technology um
the ASI artificial super intelligence
debate is kind of a different one and
again you view it differently in
different parts of the world where you
know someone like Japan it's very much
AI alongside humans in the US it tends
to be more this AGI AI God concept you
know and what's it going to do and we
can't tell because we can't conceive
something that's that much smar than us
you know um but the question is do we
need to compete and that's again comes
back to
how will you measure your life and what
is you you believe in I mentioned
earlier how many people listening to
this podcast believe in the American
dream or the British dream or the French
Dream
anymore you know what the governments
are kind of promised us what is your
goal in life some people it's Faith some
people it's patriotism some people want
to build a business get
money do you need to be plugged in to
compete if you can have the AI working
with you for you maybe you work for I'm
not sure like again most people just
happy being day to day and they just
want to be happier within their
individual context you know they don't
want to break the ceiling and Achieve
massive great things you know and so
that's why I said like maybe we do need
a few people that are jacked in you know
like overseers or something like that
maybe we will end up like the Bor but
happier hopefully you know because I the
Borg one of the main examples of this
collected collective intelligence it's
very doubtful that it'll be individual
intelligences right like if we're jacked
in we're all jacked into the internet
already on our social media we've
created some sort of weird hive mind
with memes on there with new computer
interface will be even worse but again
maybe it can damp our limic systems
which CA us to do stupid things but
we're just not sure so I think you know
what I focused on given the uncertainty
is just let's make sure the technology
is as widely available distributed
understandable as possible you this is
why I open source AI by push governance
and some of these other things versus
being controlled by a few people because
what I do know is is incredibly
persuasive and if it's just a few
entities having access to this
technology it feels kind of undemocratic
given it'll affect us all you know I
think that the brain computer interface
staff is still a number of years away
invasive
non-invasive but we're going to have
plenty of examples of it influencing us
on this individualized level again just
even via airpods way before that
okay so I'll take exception to the way
that you're painting human nature I
don't think the average person is happy
I think by Nature humans are a creature
of pursuit um I think we are just
unrelenting wanting machines and
um we seek status and so given that we
are an unrelenting wanting machine who
seeks status if we give birth to
something that isn't
like okay look there are people way
smarter than me and if I'm honest that
bothers me and if I had a solution I
would take advantage of it now the
people that are smarter than me are uh I
ran the math one time and I think
Einstein was 2.6 times this is roughly
correct if not exactly 2.6 times
somebody who meets the literal
definition of a [ __ ]
um that okay fair enough but once that
person is a hundred times smarter than
you you a 100,000 times smarter than you
a million times smarter than you all of
a sudden that's not as fun anymore and
so do you really think that people won't
um augment themselves to keep up
specifically yeah I don't think most
people are happy I think they're content
not content but again they're just in
their cycle shall we say let's take an
example maybe
steroids steroids allow you to up very
quickly there are side effects there'll
probably be side effects to neural
computer interfaces at the start not
everyone that works out takes steroids
even though there you know you go to the
gym and there's all these buff people
there right I think it depends on
societal acceptance it depends on again
what you want to do daytoday there are
still people that issue like they don't
watch Netflix they don't kind of do this
kind of stuff they are not that
competitive the people that are
competitive will want to compete and
they want every single Advantage they
could have but again I think that you're
at the top end of competitive relative
again to the vast mass of people out
there so there is this picture of which
all of humanity is upgraded with NE
computer interfaces you know maybe it's
Matrix one it's a vog one there aren't
that many positive versions of that
right that I can think of um but again
like I said for me your iPhone is the
first step of that right these are our
digital assistant they are our brain
computer interfaces the information is
customized to us
but my guess is that again this will be
a slow thing as opposed to a mass
adoption thing where everyone's like oh
I must compete with this artificial
super intelligence in fact I think
what's going to end up happening is most
people
welcome being all watched over by
Machines of Loving Grace shall we say
like you look at
senatorial confidence levels I think
it's like around cockroach or something
like that not saying individual Senators
aren't great please don't pull me up but
we don't have faith in our politicians
anymore we' probably rather most people
have ai systems you know and again this
is part of the issue that we'll be
entrusting these systems a lot I don't
mind smarter
people looking after me shall we say and
if you look 100 years out we say like
just way the on I'm just picking this I
can't see more than 10 20 of course AI
is going to run everything you know what
that looks like I don't know but it'll
definitely be able to run various things
better than we can
and what does that look like is an ASI
is it individual do there's probably
going to be some level of human input
just because you know just like you
listen to people anyway even if they say
crap in your organization even if you
make decisions um
like I I just don't think it'll be like
I said this Mass B type thing with
everyone competing to be at the top but
then maybe that's CL British not
American as well it's interesting um
yeah I I am definitely far more
competitive and so this could just be me
projecting but when I look at if you
create an opportunity for something to
be exploited humans will exploit it now
you could be right that 98% of people
don't exploit it but it will be
exploited even if it's only by the 2%
and then suddenly you create this ever
escalating arms race all right before we
get to that though let me ask there so
there's one more final thing I'd like to
add to that yeah when we talk about
Intelligence being 10 100 times larger
we don't know if intelligence can scale
maybe it's just an S curve and you get
up to like 300 and then it flattens out
but it's probably going to be less about
intelligence more about not making
mistakes you and I both are incredibly
smart people and they tend to be a bit
unstable as we get smarter at the edges
we get more unstable and there's
actually many studies kind of showing
that just not making mistakes will make
people far more effective than anything
like how many times have everyone on
listening to this sabotage themselves
right or made an emotional decision and
I will never never have to make an
emotional
decision and so maybe is that
intelligence though or is it
execution so maybe the intelligence
flattens out like already we're seeing
saturation of these models in terms of
capabilities faing on ever more data
with 10 100 times a thousand times more
compute but maybe execution you'll never
be able to be an AI in execution and
reliability I think that's what you
really want for yourself like you want
to have all the information and the
increased bandwidth but you don't want
to make the mistakes and again you want
to learn from your
mistakes you never kick yourself saying
well I did that because I was scared or
I did that because of this you're like I
did this completely rationally and I'm
executing like a goddamn King you
know the interesting thing even if all
AI does is have that ability to be
consistent to track their results to
take in more points of data than humans
uh they'll be able to do something that
I call the physics of Progress way
better than humans so I think that there
is simply a way that progress happens
that AI is is just going to be an
ungodly Force at you come up with a
hypothesis on how you think you move
towards your goal um you create the test
that you're going to run to see whether
that hypothesis is correct you identify
a metric that you think will improve uh
in a very concrete term uh you run the
test and you assess the data to see did
I actually make a meaningful move
towards that yes or no uh if yes yes
cool keep doing more of that if no then
reformulate hypothesis now with new data
point and that's it it doesn't matter
what you're trying to do you're trying
to improve your health you're trying to
be a better parent you're trying to run
a business that that is literally the
the physics of how you get ahead at
something and the problem I find with
humans in that phase is they will often
feel like a test is going to work and so
when they run the test they don't set a
metric ahead of time that they think
will be influenced and so no matter what
result they get they're like yeah that's
what I was expecting so it's like cool
the test was a success without really
looking whether they made progress to
their goal or not or they lie to
themselves uh this wasn't a poorly
executed or poorly framed test this was
some external thing that stopped me that
and it would have otherwise worked and
that's one of the ways that I think AI
can create this just
incredible um momentum by again being
able to take in way more data always
assessing the situation as accurately as
it can be assessed and then adjusting
accordingly and again this is kind of if
you treat it like a sparring buddy and
you get it to check your output
according to the rules you've set
yourself that'll be the most effective
use of this AI at this moment in time we
need
self-regulation you know we break our
habits all the
time and so this is why like again it's
execution machine like you know what we
describe is the OA Loop in military
terms right observe Orient decide and
act because you don't know kind of where
you're going but then once it comes that
it becomes about
execution and am I following through
with what I said and I'm just keeping on
top of this is everyone doing their job
on their part the AI will not drop
something they won't get tired or lazy
or forget to file something but again as
you get to swarms of AI with
coordinators this is you can't beat an
AI in execution you can't beat a robot
an execution so I think that
again the act of intelligence has been
somewhat conflated by this whole AGI
discussion where we're like trying to
conceive of this Super Genius
breakthrough stuff but most of the world
can just be changed through
rigorous execution in fact that's how
the best companies are right the're
machines where everyone knows their
parts how the best teams work like you
know if you got a good functioning team
the sum is greater than the whole
individual part right again I think it's
the same with AI so maybe I that's where
you'll feel the most competitive
pressure honestly it won't be the case
of the AI is a genius so I must be a
genius it will be I want to achieve to
my best potential like Limitless style
right like that movie with Bradley
Hooper and I want to suppress the stuff
that gets in the way on demand it's
still being human that stuff but again
this is what meditation is this is what
again Life Learning is this is what
building our mental systems are it's
just difficult to keep to them until
now if you had to place a bet is
intelligence going to hit the S curve
and stall
out I think so where do you think it
stalls out
at um on IQ basis like 300 250 probably
300 300 I
imagine okay so right now we're at you
said roughly 100 for Claude when it took
it 3x from here Einstein was if I'm not
mistaken 260 or
265 think probably 200 on the
standardized one but yeah maybe above
that so kind of above Ein you think
it'll be substantively smarter than
Einstein be smart Einstein definitely
Einstein made lots of
mistakes again he's human right but
again it isn't inconceivable for an AI
to be as smart as the smartest human but
you don't need to be all the
time right like we're talking about
Einstein we're talking about his ability
to synthesize and make breakthroughs but
how many breakthroughs did he make
during his life or a uler or any of
these other prodigies we're talking
dozens not thousands or
millions and again we're thinking about
this giant embodied AI That's trained on
a million gpus when really again how
many breakthroughs do we need to change
the world we need no breakthroughs to
change the world we actually know what
needs to be done to change the world
you don't need any more intelligence
than you have here you need execution
capabilities right when it comes to
intelligence what are those
breakthroughs going to be in you know
there's the competitive Zero Sum kind of
thing which is I have a business insight
and then I go towards it but usually
business insights are resource
constraint right can I get the like how
many comp how much competition is there
for hot tubs in your area or flooring
there only ever be a few people and it's
already low price thing it'll always be
a decent business right and massive
economic collapse you get what I mean
right so there's always these pockets of
value that you can
find will the but these discussions of
AGI are like this giant Godlike AI that
will have constant flashes of Brilliance
all the
time I just don't think that doesn't
kind of syn with me but being able to
burst to be as smart as a smart as human
yeah but then being better in things
like these massive context like Windows
in rigorous execution in ability to
observe object l or in it actually I
think AIS will have very good
intuition something we can kind of talk
about because the previous generation
that because I don't I don't understand
how an AI is going to develop
intuition so the previous generation of
AI was Big Data massive amounts of data
and extrapolation
right this new generation of AI doesn't
do that you don't need these giant
mainframes we take huge amounts of data
so something like gupt 4 is probably 10
trillion words
and the model itself is probably 20
gabt which is smaller than the archive
of
Wikipedia which is something like 10
million words it's insane what it does
is it figures out the commonalities and
principles and context so when you put a
piece of you put your an essay there
like
your quarterly review for your investors
right and you say make this a rrap in
the style of 80s
hip hop Pac Shakur style whatever and it
will write it and you've seen that right
it just does it
instantly how does it know that it
guesses the next word based on the
context of a Tac and 8s hip hop rock
this that because it's embedded the
context of all of these and the meaning
of it so like when you put the word cup
in an image generator it's like there's
cup cup your ears cup your hands and you
can see with the real time ones now
because you can generate in real time
with some of them how the image changes
d ially when you say cup your hand it do
like that or cup of water it'll do the
cup of
water and you can see this in things
like um so what it do understands
context what do we do whether we into it
we've built our mental models and we
understand context there's a practical
example of this Tesla
self-driving Tesla self-driving used to
be 300,000 lines of
code now it's one of these what's called
diffusion models so that's the same
technology we used when we devel the
stable diffusion system that you know
revolutionized the text image generation
and it's used now in these video models
too where basically you take an image or
a video whatever or like a video of you
driving like from the Tesla cameras you
destroy it down to its smallest part
using a physics based process and then
you reconstruct it and figure out how
that process of reconstruction occurs
and in that you understand the context
what self T of self-driving is basically
doing is it's guessing what's coming
next it's
intuiting why do you call it intuiting
so uh here's how I hold in my head what
AI is doing it simply has uh been
trained on so many patterns it simply
says when you say Tupac and wrap I now
create a subset in a database
essentially and now I know okay what are
the patterns within this now limited
source of my grand set of data cool here
are the patterns and now I will just
guess the most ly token that follows
that one and so it looks like it's
coming up with words or intuiting
something but in reality it's just
saying oh you want me to find the
patterns in the subset of data here they
are and so that hearing you talk about
this it sounds like and now I'm going to
put words in your mouth and so push back
and tell me this doesn't make any sense
but if I lead with oh emod thinks that
AI is conscious then okay you think that
it has a subconscious process which is
how I would Define intuition intu
inition to me is an embodied sub
literally below the conscious mind sense
of ooh some parts of my body have picked
up on a pattern that I have not
consciously picked up on uh that does
not seem analogous to what's happening
with AI to me well I think AI is
subconscious but it's not conscious so
when you look at an AI model again what
is a model it is a file like an MP3 or
MP4 or whatever like a photo
there is no logical process of code if
this than that it's like a SE we push
words in we get an image out so if you
look at exactly the data that you would
have to make an
intuition that isn't involving your
higher Vortex your trade of thought
reasoning brain and you look at an AI as
it stands as generative AI gen AI is
doing the intuition is doing you it's
type one versus type two thinking that
Aran a psychologist who very famous just
who did this book thinking fast and slow
one type of thinking is my very logical
thinking you know that's slow thought
reasoning yeah fast as intuition slow as
logic there's a
freaking yeah tiger in the wood I see
that small outline right or I think I in
it that this is probably the most likely
way to go forward based on all my
experience and my
training so you can take a model and you
can like a generalized um driving model
and you can train it on the pool roads
and then it will get better at driving
on the pool roads and for me that's a
type of again subconscious intuition
where it's guessing based on context the
next thing and again you can fit the
context window with as much information
as you would have when making an
intuition but the AI is probably going
to in it better than
you like I kind of know what say Barbie
Oppenheimer movie poster will look like
just go to grock right now you type in
Barbie opheim the post it it'll make one
right but that isn't a conscious Chain
of Thought reasoning decision it is a
string of words Barbie Oppenheimer
poster by Paramount going
into this blob of Weights The Blob of
ones and zeros This MP3 file this
picture file and out the other side is
generated an image it's not doing any
logical thinking now within that there
are weights and there's balances and
probability right but again it's not
looking up a database or structure or
creating anything
intermediate and that's just like again
our brains where we build up our neural
networks and we can have information
coming in this fast thinking and into it
what kind of comes next you can just
respond react and that's why
self-driving works and again test of
self-driving uses this technology it's
kind of guessing what's coming next and
in some studies again it's outperforming
human
drivers and you know the driver sense
that you have when you're sporting
something there was a study done
recently that showed that we can detect
our breast cancer five years before it
occurs you know and you think about a
top radiologist they say I think
something's wrong I dig and they'll do
that I just do that now so I would say
that all AI is doing now is fast
thinking and that's why one of the
biggest challenges now and why we're
introducing new technology is actually
the slow
thinking and AI so fast that we haven't
slowed down so as you get to customer
service agents and all this other stuff
and these I'm talking about that's where
Chain of Thought reasoning and other
things are actually active research
topics we're trying to figure out how to
make it less
intuitive slower
ironically and more thorough in its
thinking so if we can combine the two
what do we
have yeah that will be uh extremely
interesting to see if those problems can
be solved now is that key to your
thinking on how we get 3x smarter AI
than where we are now and if so how do
we train it like what if we've already
run through everything that's available
on the internet how do we actually make
this thing 3x
smarter well we're training on junk
still so the internet is
junk um right now we've seen some
studies like um there's this Microsoft
model called thi where we just generated
textbooks and we just fed it with
textbooks but then when we added a s Le
of the snapshot of Internet the
performance got better and for me that's
a bit like well it's a brook versus
someone who lives in the real world
right like if you already ever trade on
textbooks but we don't know the food
that these AIS need but we're getting
better at understanding that so when we
made stable diffusion we needed two
billion images we capture on the
internet two billion images we excluded
watermarked images and gy and all
that someone achieved the same
performance on 25 million
I'm seeing which parts of the neural
network got lit
up by the most common qu you could throw
out 99% of the data and again if you
think of it like a liberal arts gr
what's the curriculum we need to feed it
better data and then it'll get better
but then what's the feedback loops for
it to recursively self-improve so Apple
intelligence has just arrived on your
smartphone with apple intelligence now
it's a three billion parameters so like
a probably
fp4 2 to 3 gigabyte file and then it has
these adapters called luras for
individual topic areas so it's got a
generalized intelligence and specific
areas intelligence for like note taking
and other things and it swaps out like
the training courses for the AI where
the AI kind of switches that out soon it
will have the ability to recursively
self-learn and adapt to you so it'll be
able to train on device based on its
understanding of
you just like you go to some of these
image sites and then you can train your
face in and hey you got a Tom model you
know and now you're an astronaut and
you're a dog and whatever
right so the next step is we go from
these base models that in it to
recursive fine-tuning
adaptation increasing automatic
generation of context which is the
instructions and then what's happening
now in the iere there's this massive
focus on what's known as Monte Carlo Tre
search for a gentic
AI so Monte Carlo Tre search is the type
of AI that was used to have an AI that
could beat humans at Dota 2 or alphago
you know so playing computer game type
AI where you gave it the rules of a
computer game and then it played against
itself and then it beat
humans and we've seen it kind of playing
arbitrary games Atari games Nez games
kind of everything that kind of died
down a little bit because no one really
wants to get beaten by nii all the time
it's kind of annoying right
um and again the interfaces of this was
slowed down it wasn't like the computer
being directly jacked into a video game
like it had to like almost manually
human wise respond to things and things
like that right and learn on the flight
it wasn't thr all the games of history
but it just got better and better and
better then you had this deep learning
phase where it was all about training
these giant models and giant data but
again we haven't optimized the data and
now it's about the recursive
self-improvement so we've seen recently
a slew of things that can write academic
p papers they do it by breaking it down
hypothesizing testing and having
different models try different things
and again that reflects normal society
normal teams and more so this is the
next wave of recursive self-improving
AIS should come next
year that self-correct their faults that
LE um and that is what gets us up to
this 300
double but most of the time you don't
want 300 you know like again 100 is
enough well I don't know that I agree
with that but why will recursive
self-improvement stop at
300 I don't see why that has St well
because you max out the score tests
effectively and again what is
intelligence like the ability to solve
novel
problems how many novel problems do you
have to
live oh I mean okay so you and I might
have to Define ter here uh so the thing
that will make AI truly just World
shatteringly different it is going to
terraform the way that we live no matter
what already just the way that it's
headed much like the internet uh but for
to really break free and and have the
shot at Utopia or quite frankly dystopia
uh to me it has to be able to have
breakthroughs that humans have never had
so my current understanding
of AI is it's just a pattern recognition
machine which means unless there is a
pattern that is right in front of our
faces that none of us have seen it's not
going to share human experiences by
crawling the net reading all of our
books watching us move about the world
and suddenly go oh you're missing this
pattern I I don't think that's ever
going to happen now what it will be able
to do whether it can have breakthroughs
or not is taken a lot more data than we
can so it can see cancer 5 years early
uh simply because there there is a
complex Confluence of things but it's
still just recognizing a pattern uh for
it to have a breakthrough on the order
of Einstein I don't know what that is
that strikes me as magical in a human uh
I wouldn't know what to even look for in
an AI but that feels very different like
you're not going to get there from
recursive self-improvement so anyway
that when I talk about intelligence I'm
talking about that there is hey we need
to bend SpaceTime so that we can travel
to a distant star that is a very novel
problem and we as humans have been
unable to do that because we cannot
understand the mathematics uh or maybe
the substrate that that we exist in but
there's some key thing that we're
missing so I mean look science builds
upon previous things and occasionally
there breakthroughs that happen
simultaneously right like um you have
breakthroughs like information Theory
you have breakthroughs in Mater matal
sciences and
more I think if you kind of look at the
ability of AI to synthesize and build
again I give the I just told you that we
can make a poster of barban Oppenheimer
made by Paramount and it'll be generated
in a few seconds you don't even Flinch
right that doesn't exist in the data set
you know but that's I'll argue that I'll
argue that so and I'm open to being
convinced that I'm not trying to be a
contrarian but here's uh the reason that
you can do a Bobby Oppenheimer Barbie
Oppenheimer poster is because they both
have identifiable explainable what I'll
call looks which is simply a visual uh
Motif that Motif is simply a pattern so
these are all more fancy words for
patterns so Barbie has a pattern from
color palette to angle choice to um type
of character way they're posed hairstyle
all of that that's what makes her Barbie
uh and then same with Oppenheimer right
so and you could do give me a Barbie
Oppenheimer poster in the style of The
Simpsons because those all have an
identifiable what I'll call a mimical uh
style this is why you can do an
impression of somebody uh because there
are things that they do that when you
repeat those patterns the brain suddenly
goes oh that's how Trump talks right
that's why you can do an impression of
trump so what I'm saying is yeah AI is
always going to be able to do anything
that I can break down into a pattern and
it's cool and it's amazing but that that
is not how Einstein figured out his
theories they weren't pattern
related well so this is where it is
instinctively use that word inductively
like the AI can make Barbie Oppenheimer
and we just take it for granted now
right and again it's got patterns and it
Mees the patterns it Mees the Styles
recently uh Deep Mind released a paper
on their new AI model that
blind look to International math
Olympiad papers so this is the
competition where the smartest
mathematicians um university just before
University get together and solve these
papers and it's called the
silver utilizing this agent based
self-recursive learning system because
to solve these problems they're really
hard you know you get easier they're not
the hardest problems in the world but
with actually not that much computation
it could solve these denovo problems
that aren't in the data that require
inductive reasoning they require an
understanding of the precepts of
mathematics and open eyes indicated they
have a gold um and one of the things
here is the amount of compute that we
put into solving these things is
actually relatively minimal we put in
this much compute to training the models
but then we make the models consumer
grade so gp4 can pretty much run on a
MacBook a giant memory
MacBook yeah what if we created models
and millions of agents that used as much
energy as we used for that the more
energy you put into solving a problem
especially a new
one well the more likely you are to
solve it in some ways especially if you
can always remember every single try
that you did in the different ways that
you do it uh Terren to is one of the
best mathematicians of the generation
he's like super genius he now uses AI
every day as a partner to help him
figure out new
math
H know how he's going about that I'm
very curious to know what he did to like
surely he's not just working with gp4
has he created a custom model is there
something he had to do to
it he is using gp4 he's just giving all
of his assumptions and using the context
length and getting the feedback and
trying and experiment to with new things
because there's no one that he can just
talk to like that
but it can think through a few layers of
this big picture stuff but he again he's
got his own capability he just needs to
have a sparring partner right but gpc4
we' heard talk about this new thing qar
or strawberry from open AI that has the
agentic workpl everyone's building it it
will be able to remember it will be able
to improve it will be able to you'll be
able to put as much compute budget as
you want against solving a problem just
like you add Manpower but where we add
manpow what happens if you put a dozen
scientists in a room nothing because
they're all opinionated and they have
egos and everything like that n of these
AIS have
egos and so the first step is this
intuition as it were like you know the
bar on par as I call it or this context
shift or this pattern matching then
there's the inductive reasoning the
thinking slow and when you start
combining these and again you allow it
to take time there's software piece of
software called
so normally when you use GitHub copilot
this code
software it does things instantly
right Devon you tell it to B as an
iPhone app and it'll go away for seven
hours or eight hours and run dozens of
these queries and this is before agents
and start building it and checking all
the different
bits because as an example Barby
Oppenheimer okay now we just generate it
and it might work it might not work the
future is go and make Barbie Oppenheimer
say well I kind of know what F likes and
what the context of this is generate an
image check it for consistency you know
then check it for proof reading check it
for color palette optimization there'll
be an entire flow of knowledge and again
this is where the future for getting to
that super intelligence or you know this
300 IQ will be needed for certain things
where you're making new recipes and new
breakthroughs I think probably the main
contention or the main difference in
context you and me is that I'm thinking
a lot about the AI that will will be
used around the world and there'll be
some of these 300 iqis but the vast
majority will be 110
120 that's all we need you know and
again there'll be execution
machines um so again I think that this
is a required step to get there because
we've just modeled one part of the brain
so far and we have to combine it with
all the other parts of the brain and
then we have to combine it with the
smartest people in the world working
together because the learn genius is one
thing but amazing teams are far more
likely to get stuff
done and again we can add
infinite technically now there's no
limit on the amount of context we can
put into the context window these models
um someone's figured that out and
there's no limit to the amount of energy
we can put like what if we just spent as
much energy solving a particular like on
Fast and light travel as a gp4 right now
we wouldn't get there but maybe in 5 10
years you will right fundamental
of physics analyzed in depth in every
single physics paper and again that kind
of thing you said talk all right if
we've got people that are using Chad gb4
or equivalent to do things like uh help
them identify new math it's far more
complex than anything I've been able to
use it for that tells me I don't
understand the context window well
enough what is the key to a really
effective context window
it's treating out like you were your
assistant or your buddy that you're
sparring with intellectually
right it's giving the instructions and
iterating and improving it so you know
when you give instructions to the new
person you hired they have to understand
the context of the thing they're doing
the way that you work you know they
learn about the feedback and so you have
to give it that feedback but again this
is usually short context stuff most
people use chat GPT or anthropic Claude
or Gemini with this very small amount of
data and again you can give it 50 give
it 50,000 words or a million words of
instructions so again like someone like
Terence to he uses it not for the
breakthroughs why would I Rely Upon a
graduate or new high for a breakthrough
right I'm the experienced one with all
the context and performing at the top of
my game
I'm using it to offload thoughts and to
have things bounce back and it will
follow my instructions to give it back
and maybe it will int it some stuff
maybe it'll explore and kind of look at
this in five different ways right and
it's getting better and better at doing
that and we see that in the statistics
of the performance of these
models like CLA 3.5 the latest anthropic
model is one of the first models I've
actually enjoyed using since the very
early days so I think I'll catch up and
now it's called out but again I using it
as a programming body better than any
graduate programmer that I've worked
with you know but before that it was
kind of crap but this experience is not
going to stop getting
better particularly because it's almost
too cheap now but rather than having
again you might used to
cost5 $150 for a million words and now
it costs 15 cents but those million
words have got from 80 IQ to over 100
now oh the irony emot it is so fun to
bounce these ideas back and forth with
you man thank you so much for taking the
time where can people connect with you
yeah you can follow the
Twitter or
shingi that's all we
love I love it all right everybody as
the Chinese curse goes may you live in
interesting times and you certainly live
in interesting times all right speaking
of interesting if you haven't already be
sure to subscribe and until next time my
friends be legendary take care peace if
you like this conversation check out
this episode to learn more we have two
Futures in our world today either a Mad
Max future or a Star Trek future do you
think that as we transition over to AI
that it will take us through a valley of
Despair or is this going to be a
straight line to Utopia oh no big
valleys of chaotic despair