Transcript
VZN_6cBxXWY • If Trump Wins The 2024 Election, This Happens - Debt Crisis, Recession, Rich vs Poor | David Pakman
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Kind: captions Language: en think the stakes are higher I mean it's higher whatever you think about the rigidity or fragility of our democracy and and maybe we'll talk about that the stakes are higher because this is an inflection point I think for Maga and trumpism to some degree if Donald Trump wins in November it probably prolongs mag's control of the Republican Party into certainly the midterms in 2026 maybe into to who the Republican Party selects in 2028 as their nominee whereas particularly with Trump being close to 80 if he loses in November that'll be a lot of Maga losses in a row starting in 2018 or under performances we can say and it's probably not only the end of Trump's political career but but it may sort of be it for Maga as well so I do think the stakes are high and what what is your biggest fear if Trump gets elected well I don't want to be hyperbolic so I would just look at the first term combined with not having another election to run and therefore being completely sort of unrestrained and unfettered uh in addition to openly saying that he's interested in replacing career bureaucrats at so many departments with partisan Loyalists and what that would do to the Department of energy the Department of Education Etc is scary to someone with my worldview which is sort of a pluralistic respect our Democratic institutions in the kind of mold of of Northern Europe for for my mindset uh the idea of that is is scary um you know the the more hyperbolic stuff uh I think I try not to engage with in a blanket way you know if there's a specific issue that we want to discuss we can you know whether it's abortion or something else uh but those those are my concerns you've got a guy who is um completely UNC and breaks sort of the social norms of what it's like to interact with the public uh you have somebody that lies voraciously and obviously that in and of itself is deeply problematic uh you have somebody that plays pretty loose and loose and fast with world leaders and that obviously carries with it a certain amount of risk you have somebody that has proven that they um this is where I want to be very careful about how you view it but that January 6 was very meaningful in terms of a legitimate attempt to undermine maybe the most gentle word to undermine the traditional peaceful transfer of power uh and you put that all together and you have something that is um certainly directionally not where you want to see us end up I agree with all of that and I think there's of course more to it we it sounds like we're going to talk about the economy in more detail but certainly economically the sort of uh uh blind tariff idea that he's now pushing which seems like it would be bad for both businesses and individuals in the United States concerns me uh directionally I don't like the straining of relationships with our traditional Western allies that we saw under Trump and I know that there's a view that it's good to shake things up and it's good to keep people guessing on their toes I I don't know that it's been demonstrated that generically that that's a good thing I think under Trump and the way he executed it it it certainly was not so yeah I I think what you laid out certainly reflects my beliefs and I would even go beyond it okay what would be the most meaningful things that you would push beyond that that raise the stakes of this particular election I think it's the the ones I mentioned in including turning government departments into partisan political departments when they're really not supposed to be and I don't know you know this isn't like the most viral and click inducing topic but I don't know that a lot of people necessarily understand that a lot of the employees of these government departments whatever you think about the missions of the Departments these are not political actors privately I'm sure a lot of these employees vote but they transcend uh administrations they work under Democratic Administration and Republican administrations and they're really career bureaucrats that are doing so much of the diplomacy work and and bureaucratic work and it's a good thing that that's the way it is and so the idea of turning those departments into partisan Endeavors sometimes with the goal of essentially just ruining them right I mean Department of Education is one where it's been overtly stated that many of these Maga people don't even think there should be a federal department of education and just kind of let States figure it out or even let municipalities figure it out or when it comes to the US Postal Service another great example of politicizing in order to then destroy to allow private business to fill that role I think all of that is extraordinarily dangerous and when you look around the world at the countries that have gone in that direction they are not the countries that Democrats nor Republicans will often say that's the country we want to be like and when you look at the country countries with the strong business environments uh low unemployment uh High uh level of uh of quality of life they aren't doing those things they kind of respect this separation with these bureaucratic departments so I I think that's a huge deal what do you think about people that think that there's whether you call it the managerial class or the Deep state that that begins to pose its own threat to democracy I hesitate to engage with that without a disclaimer which is that there are thoughtful realistic ways to engage with what is in many cases a two-tiered society or or even multi-tiered Society usually when your entry point into it is talking about the Deep State or the managerial class terms that for example like VI ramaswami would use half a dozen times each time would interview him it starts us off in what in my opinion is a more sort of conspiratorial and unproductive Direction I kind of prefer the language of social democracy which is that it's not you don't need to look under rocks or for the Deep State or the trilateral commission or the bilderbergs or whatever the case may be it's sort of all out in the open Princeton has studied it and the the desires of the wealthy are just and corporations are far more likely to be made law or to be reflected by lobbyists Etc you don't need to go into deep State uh to recognize that the middle class and the lower middle class the working class however you want to Define it have disproportionately little political power in the United States so that I think is what we really should be engaging with and for me even raising deep State as a term in the discussion doesn't really add anything it certainly doesn't clarify anything it's really interesting so first I will flag myself fully as somebody who is paranoid about the Deep state but we can come back to that and hopefully you can talk some reason into me um but I I'm really intrigued by this idea that uh the middle class and Working Poor in America are disproportionately powerless compared to other nations um so certainly social democracy is something that's on my list of things that I want to discuss with you I would not have seen um that interpretation of that coming so if you can tie to be clear you might I might have I might have explained it I didn't mean disproportionately powerless relative to other nations I meant relative to the wealthy and corporations of the United States I see I see that may have just been my misunderstanding okay so uh yeah that seems uh unassailable so paint me a vision of what it is that you want to see as an outcome so when you think about like who should be elected whether Harris or anybody else that obviously elections will come and go um but there's something that you're driving towards uh before we met I would have just said off-handed uh social democracy is what he wants you often reference Denmark um if you don't mind stacks and Bricks for us what what what is social democracy how is it different from democratic socialism and what would it feel like for America to be that for the average person this is a really good way to approach it so the first distinction between social democracy and Democratic socialism is that social democracy is capitalism it's it's it's a form of capitalism if you look at a place like Denmark which has an as good or Better Business environment in terms of what it costs how long it takes bureaucracy etc for starting a business when compared to the United States uh it is a form of capitalism it's a slightly more regulated form than we have in some ways in the United States now as we delve into this I think it's important to mention that depending on where you live live in the United States the state you live in may already be very close not there but very close to what social Democrats like myself are kind of pointing towards and in fact if you look at the higher standard of living states in the United States so these are places like Connecticut Massachusetts Washington Etc we we could look at the list What's called the HDI the human development index which is a kind of Blended metric that considers uh uh health and and Longevity a per capita income education it's sort of like a blended metric that tells you kind of like how good are the basic building blocks of life in the states in the United States where it's going well Connecticut Massachusetts Etc it's almost identical to countries like Denmark Norway Sweden Etc it's it's very equivalent so we're very close to what social Democrats want already in much of the United States and the difference between social democracy and what I think a lot of the center right Republicans want this is not necessarily talking about magga now but but a lot of center right Republicans involves taking just a little more at the very very top to ensure that no one drop below a certain level we're just kind of it's not equality of outcome it's not socialism it's certainly not communism or Marxism it's basically saying here's the current sort of range of outcomes what we want to do is set up something a little closer to equality of opportunity that no one Falls too low and usually the way you do that is with a little more taxation at the very top that all being said uh I don't think it has to be that way I mean I'm not someone who goes around saying we need to pay more in taxes I to be totally honest I am frustrated every April with how much I pay in taxes I I would actually like to pay less I think it's the distribution and the use of a lot of the tax money that that's the problem but now now we're getting more Nuance but to kind of step back at the 30,000 foot view we're not talking about dramatic changes especially if you're already in States like Connecticut Massachusetts Washington Etc okay uh super helpful so um for anybody that doesn't know uh what is um Democratic socialism you know really a Democratic Socialist should tell you because one of one of the things I found is whether you're explaining what Jordan Peterson meant or whether you're explaining what democratic socialism is usually the adherence to those ideologies will come back and say you either don't understand it or didn't explain it correctly so Democratic soci socialism as best as I can explain it is actually a form of Socialism where to different degrees and in different ways uh the means of production when it comes to corporations or the profits from businesses are socialized the way in which it's done and implemented depends but I I think it would be best for for a socialist to explain it I'm I'm very much not one yeah fair enough um I get that the reason that I ask is for any of us to intelligently navigate the world we have to have some sense even if it's just a heuristic about that so let me ask uh something that will get to the same idea why don't you want to be why don't you want America to be a socialist country well I have seen in looking at the last 500 years of history as well as looking at the world today that the best outcomes seem to happen when there is no more authoritarianism from government than what is arguably necessary for the size of the population and I'll explain that in in a moment um and that the countries that have what might be described in a book like why Nations fail as extractive institutions sometimes will do well in the short term like for example the Soviet Union had a period during which you saw economic growth and to a degree you saw Innovation but you saw it under fundamentally extractive government institutions and so it hit a limit and looking at the Cold War shows you kind kind of what happens when those limits are hit so my starting point is and I know that if you look at the comments on my YouTube channel this might come as a shock to some of your listeners I actually am not about more government involvement or more government control than can really be Justified and demonstrated by what's going to generate kind of the best outcom so for me I don't see any reason for a government to say we're not going to let markets dictate you know where the mobile phone market goes for example I I don't I don't see a big problem with that I think it's a perfectly fine and great thing both for Innovation and competition for Apple and Samsung and Google and whoever to compete and to let markets uh dictate the flow of resources I think that there are some specific areas where this is not ideal and what's really interesting is myself and someone who's on the political right probably agree on most of them like for example most Republicans agree we should socialize the military we shouldn't have all of these different militaries and if we need to do X or Y in another country well these are like kind of private militaries now there are mercenary groups that's not really what I mean we all generally agree yeah the military should be part of the government that makes sense we we usually agree Republicans Democrats Independence that cities shouldn't have competing police forces it makes sense to socialize police and fire uh only like kind of extreme Libertarians would disagree with that my view is that there's like a couple other areas where a little more socializing makes sense I think healthcare is one of them although I'm flexible as to the way we get healthcare for everybody I think public education is an area we're socializing a little more than Republicans want to make sense but the the point of presenting it this way is that we're mostly all in the United States on the same page that there are some areas where socializing makes sense and a bunch of areas where markets make sense we just disagree about probably a couple of them okay that I want that to be true but people are so fiery in their reactions to each side if we're as as close as you're saying and you sound very reasonable Mr Pacman I will give you that so why then is there so much collision between the left and the right right now what is the swing towards populism all about if we're really close to the outcome that you're saying we should be aiming towards well I want to be clear that I think we're close ideologically right like if you look at opinion surveys about abortion or should taxation be use to make sure no one drops below a certain standard of living or does it make sense to provide some amount of Health Care to everybody regardless of ability to pay ideologically in opinion polling we are closer than we've ever been and kind of more united than we've ever been the Electoral outcomes don't reflect that there there's a bunch of different reasons why and I'll just tell you a couple of them number one there is this thing called the narcissism of small differences which is that the outcome when is agreement in a lot of areas but you still have elections and fundraising and political fights over who gets to represent us in Washington DC the differences by their very nature must be Amplified if you have two Republicans in a primary running against each other and they mostly agree about abortions bad and tax should be lower right if they agree on 10 things the race will become about the two things on which they disagree so this is just like standard politics to be expect expected the the differences must be Amplified in order to justify vote for me and not for somebody else so that's number one number two there are still pretty significant cultural differences regionally in the United States and I've spent a bunch of time in different conservative areas and life day-to-day is often really different living in some of the kind of liberal cities of the United States as compared to like for example I spent time in Northern Indiana where people spend a lot of time at gun ranges and in mega churches life culturally is very different so the environments also make people believe that our differences are are maybe greater than they are and then thirdly as a result of at the federal level the Electoral College in terms of how we elect presidents um and Jerry mandering at the state level also exacerbates these differences by virtue of a lot of factors related to how how we elect candidates and so this is not me pretending like everything's hunky everybody basically agrees but there is this kind of shared moral understanding that I think covers a bunch of the United States and the reason that you see the the kind of vitriol is the reasons I mentioned I think Amplified by impersonal communication on social media where you're not actually sitting face to face with somebody and talking imagine breathing through a straw while trying to run a marathon that's what life with sinus congestion feels like and I have bad battled with allergies for years that is why I'm excited about navage nasal care this isn't your standard congestion solution nage uses a patented system of saline flow and gentle suction to clear your nasal passages effectively it works in as little as 30 seconds it's completely drug-free 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that are like that when you think of humans as storing calories for the future pre- refrigerators in the bodies of other people is sort of a weird thing when you first hear it but when you really think about it it's like I went on a hunt I was very productive this time I come back with the animal you didn't get anything I'm going to feed you I'm going to make sure that you don't get left behind because it could be you next time that ends up getting the kill and not me and so I am quite literally storing future calories in the form of obligation uh in you so cool we understand why that becomes a thing but whenever there is an exploitable Niche then someone is going to exploit it and so you get what you call the freeloader problem and so that's why you need the people on the right who are about personal responsibility and no you can't just eat all of my meat there's going to be tit fortat I need to see that you're bringing something to the table as well so I look at it from that standpoint you've got this evolutionary bifurcation between types of people that roughly fall into left and right that roughly can be generalized as people that uh lead with compassion and other people that lead with responsibility everybody's on a spectrum of course these are not binary things but you get that tension now somewhere in the 90s something culturally started to happen I've often heard it put on Rush Limba I'm G to Guess that he was more a symptom of something rather than the cause but that it became really about entrenching in our tribes now I'm not familiar enough with that history to know what he was queuing off of why he felt like this was the way to go to begin tearing people down or if it really was the beginning of Independent Media with different radio stations becoming popular and getting syndicated and maybe social media really is just the modern um incarnation of that that certainly is possible um but I think that divide happened long before social media so I'd love to know if you have a take on that and then certainly social media um exacerbates that a thousandfold but what do you think about that in terms of just naturally people are going to be divided into those two camps and the tension between them is actually useful but something has become pathological recently I'm not sure that the evolutionary case is is as clear as you make it out to be in this sense if we're talking about at the group level um when humans developed agriculture and by definition AG one of the big advantages of Agriculture was the storing of calories right in a different not not as obligations but quite literally we now are going to be able to start specializing not everybody needs to find the daily calories that they need we're going to have some people specialize and grow way more food than they need we're going to store it and or distribute it and now we're going to be able to start investing other people's time in different things that they might be good at arguably for some it was you know the development of religious beliefs for others it was starting to look at medicine Transportation so on and so forth you already started to have the freeloader problem there I just struggle I I've not seen evidence that the freeloader problem during the Agricultural Revolution or even now is really a problem in the sense that I think it's natural that you will have it whenever a technology is developed and advances and opens new doors and if you look at you know we now know more about the Agricultural Revolution and there was a mixed bag in the sense of not moving around as much did lead to more contagious disease and right it's not it's not a Panacea but big picture the Agricultural Revolution accelerated technological development and uh uh and the development of homo sapiens and so many ways yes there were some freeloaders who didn't really specialize in anything but they were still beneficiaries of the fact that we could store food but I think that's just part of a system and it's hard to argue that Humanity didn't benefit in total from that Revolution even despite the freeloaders so I I guess my point to go back is it's not obvious to me that the evolutionary case is as clear as you're making it out to be okay one quick point on that and then I'll step back and see what you do think um speaks to it so agriculture comes around somewhere 10 to 12,000 years ago but we've been considered humans for roughly 250,000 years so agriculture is still pretty novel so from a how the brain would develop standpoint I think there's a case to be made that you have a much longer period of time where there is no way to store food uh than you've had one where there is now certainly agriculture has wildly changed our societies and all of that and we could do a talk on that but the thing I'm really trying to get to in your world viiew is just to understand how you think we end up dividing on the left and right if we want to get rid of left and right um are we just trying to nudge people because my vision has always been you want left and right you want the tension between them but you want them way closer to the middle than they are now and so um just curious to get your take on what causes this Left Right divide and where do we want to move people we trying to get everyone to the left we trying to get everyone in the middle what's that look like yeah I I think you that laying it out that way is much more in line with with My Views and I've said many times that I would much rather have a Republican party that goes back to you know sort of like the John McCain Republican party where there are disagreements about foreign policy there are disagreements about taxation but not only are the disagreements far more substantive um they are disagreements where we are closer to starting with a shared basis in fact so we say hey okay here are the facts now we might have disagreements about where we want to go and the best kind of way to go there from a biological standpoint there's pretty good research that those who end up being what we in the United States we describe as politically conservative tend to have larger fear centers in their brain in other words the idea of difference the idea of change does lights up or I'm not using the right terminology because I'm not I'm not a neuroscientist but it sort of sort of lights up parts of the brain that are responsible for rejection and sometimes that rejection comes in the form of fear sometimes it comes in the form of disgust as we see with some of the other social issues so there's probably a biological aspect to it I do think that there's a huge Urban rural divide to go back to the environment that you're kind of raised in now there's probably a sort of vicious cycle in the sense that if you're already for biological reasons more suspicious of others or more fearful of different environments you probably choose to live rurally and around fewer people so so you know there's kind of a little bit of a chicken egg here and we're kind of talking about the same thing but I think that that that's another Factor um so we might call it a geographical factor and cultural factors as well that probably date back to how did your family end up in the United States to begin with that's interesting I didn't see the curveball there coming at the end um so I think we'll both agree that there's a biological component there's obviously a very large cultural component the part I don't yet understand in your worldview is do you want the tension between the two or do you want to see people leverage culture to migrate more either to the center or to the left I think that it is healthy not to have everyone exactly on the same spot in the political Spectrum so I think we can we can sign simultaneously say if we think about the Spectrum as a sort of number line there's a bunch of stuff way over here that's not good for Society for a number of different reasons that we can identify all the way on the other side there's also reasons why if if that were the predominant worldview that would not be so good I do think that it is better for you know if I could sort of snap my fingers and say everybody has the exact views of David Pacman I think that that's not ideal because I think it's clear that history has shown us that we often make advances when something is pulling one way or the other and you don't necessarily know in advance which direction the right direction is at any particular moment I think the the critical part is we need guard rails and so for example the idea of well here's an idea to do something different the person who didn't win the election still gets to be president that seems beyond the pale to me of the sort of pull push that that we need so no I I think that political disagreement is a healthy thing um and there's there's many countries including the countries that I think of as interesting models you know my forthcoming book I talk you know northern Europe is sort of like clich of course everybody in with my worldview talks about Northern Europe but I talk about Uruguay around 2010 I talk about the social Democrats in Germany in the 2000s I talk about the Carol estate in India and I think uh these are all different sort of scenarios but they all benefited from not everybody being exactly on the same page I I I hope I'm answering the question clearly which is no I I don't think the ideal thing is everybody matches my personal exact political worldview no that makes a lot of sense um so what now I am taking that information I'm trying to map it to where you want to move people to so we're starting with the base assumption that uh there's something uh very meaningful about this particular election uh the collision between the two ideas um we went through certainly what's going on on the right in terms of um Trump representing a movement to turn bureaucracies into partisan entities that really should exist well beyond that that should be able to work for either side um that there is a fundamental undermining of the democratic process uh that your vision of the which is obviously where you want to see us end up we're actually getting quite close to that um there's just a few more things um we didn't get into necessarily deeply about one thing that you threw off the cuff which was uh basically we're just trying to even um make sure that everybody has a relatively similar starting point um but that makes a lot of sense and so I if those are the two visions then it becomes a question of um do you trust yourself or does anybody that holds that position trust themselves enough to say hey everybody follow me this is where we want to be or do they say look I want to put my idea out there I want to argue it as much as possible but the last thing I would want is for anybody to just blindly follow what I'm saying because I know there will be second and third order consequences that I cannot predict um and that probably more than anything sums up my problem with the current um political structure everywhere that I have looked at which is it always boils down down to um somebody thinking that they know the path forward rather than running something I call the physics of progress where you're holding yourself accountable to metrics which it does not seem like we do certainly I uh so couple different things there if you there is a certain egocentrism associated with I I would argue people who do what you and I do in the sense of like it occurred to us that we should be speaking with microphones and that it's something other people should listen to right so there's like on some level there is some ego associated with that I think for people who run for elected office it's similar it's hey of all the people I think I'm the one that people should vote for and put me in the position of power to then go and and and do things one of the things I always tell my audience is I don't I do not believe that I am the ultimate source of Truth everything I say should be fact checked uh My Views should change if I'm presented with contradictory information for example and it's good to be skeptical of anybody who says that they are the ultimate source of Truth this is one of the things to to kind of get back to the election Dynamics you know over the last however many years it's been Donald Trump has told us he knows more than the scientists he knows more than the generals he knows more than the doctors he knows more than the epidemiologists he knows more than the Senators he knows more right that to me runs very much counter to exactly what you're talking about which is well hold on a second before we bring everybody along with whatever idea we have we should establish how it is that we're going to determine what is real and what is not what works and and what doesn't work so kind of as like a baseline level I give my audience my best guess at the time uh subject to revision based on new information that's coming forward so so I think that goes to the first part of your question which is this idea that that we just impose here's what we should do uh without necessarily knowing if it's the best thing yeah very much so um to me just by way of quick heuristic the right way to run a government is what Lincoln called A Team of Rivals that you actively Court people who think differently than you now whether Lincoln did the following or not I don't know but this is certainly my worldview that you the reason you bring together A Team of Rivals is you were trying to Red Team blue team ideas that you can measure the outcome of that you will have stated ahead of time what the desired outcome is and then did this initiative lead us to that or not and I think there are a couple things that end up breaking that one is that everything is just so complicated that it can be very hard to get a definitive answer uh and so you would need literally certainly multiple administrations would have to share an end goal so that people would need to State this is where I'm trying to take us these are the things we're going to try dear public these are the outcomes reporting them as honestly as they can in fact inviting their Rivals to report on it so that we can all look at it but then the other thing is that I to your earlier point I don't think we any longer have a shared set of facts now this is a thing that I wrestle with tremendously because I don't know that there are facts to share so when I there obviously is ground truth physics but we don't even understand physics so everything that we engage in is interpretation to some level so then I ask myself okay what how do we influence the thing that causes us to look at something but interpret it a different way as far as I can tell it's biology beliefs and values so values sort of speaks to what you were talking about did you grow up rural biology speaks to um do you have the larger fear centers in the brain and then beliefs are just outright choices but people don't realize their choices but you put those three together and now people can really distort the lens through which they look at things and so whether it's social media a bigger cultural movement the debt cycle which we haven't talked about but I think is a huge part of this or all of it I think the way in which people are assessing the facts just the the distorted prisms that the left and the right are looking at things through is getting more and more Divergent so they can look at the same thing and see something wildly different do you see one does that make sense to you and if it does do you see a way to unwind it the way to so I have an entire chapter and there's really probably in some way two or three chapters in my forthcoming book there's a chapter called what are facts not what are the facts but what are facts and there's some very it's it's good but it's also really scary um pulp study data from Pew Research Center where people were presented with 10 statements and they were just asked indicate whether this is a fact or an opinion right so like if I tell you chocolate ice cream is the best ice cream I think you and I both would say well that's that's of course an opinion uh and if I said to you uh based on current technology humans cannot live without oxygen we would say okay well that's that's a fact uh a very high percentage of people I don't want to quote it because I don't have it in front of me but a shockingly high number of people misidentified which statements were opinions and which statements were facts and this is very much visible in our politics you know when um someone says millions of people died from the covid vaccine that is a statement of fact not an opinion it's either true or it's not and we don't have any evidence that millions of people died from the vaccine but to really think about vaccine policy to pick something you have to understand whether that is a statement of opinion or fact and whether there is any basis to make some of these claims so I completely agree with you that there is this more Divergent situation I think where I disagree is there are I I think it's dangerous to fall too far into I don't even really know that we have facts anymore not that that's what you said but you were sort of saying that there's this ambiguity for you about about even kind kind of figuring this out um so I I think that that is a major problem now the solution I think is a combination of we should really be teaching both critical thinking and media literacy probably starting at age 10 to everybody that's not partisan although there are state boards of Education including Texas that don't want that taught in in public school I won't speculate as to why we should ask some of the people that don't want it taught but um we know we get to I I taught a a couple of college courses and I had 20 year olds in my class where basic media literacy like hey here's something here's a message from media how would you even start evaluating whether what you just heard is is true nothing just no basis to even evaluate media messages so so I think that the way to push back against it is critical thinking and media literacy probably starting at age 10 it's very interesting because yes ultimately people are going to have to um understand how to look at something and determine whether it can be validated or not uh I think the big catch is going to be that so many things are going to be hard to invalidate or validate or that uh as I say there's statistics uh lies and damn lies and that even when you're looking at the data itself the conclusions that you draw from it can be very jarring so for instance yeah I heard you talk a lot about I heard you talk a lot about Denmark and okay we wna that's sort of a quick obviously just rough sketch of where we want to end up so I looked up Denmark where are they at in the um GDP so uh Denmark is 34th I think I wrote this down they're roughly 34th 32nd to 36th lies 38th they're 38th okay so nominal GDP Denmark is 38th us obviously is number one uh but if you look it up in terms of GDP PPP so purchasing power parody per capita Denmark is 52nd but the US is number two and so I was like wait a second who's number one and it's China so I was like wait a second in something that I care deeply about a communist country outperforms the US and so then I'm like hold the phone so now I go from hey GDP is a great way to just shorthand think about like what's what is an what is a kpi that you could look at to say we're making the right decisions or leading us in a good direction and then all of a sudden I was like yeah like go democracy go America amazing amazing and then the people that I think are the most not the most backwards cuz just like brutal authoritarian uh regimes where people are starving to death Stalin ma like those would be way worse but uh a a place I would not want to be living under is actually outperforming us on a metric that I care deeply about so I was like wow so this is super interesting there's a bunch of stuff there and you're getting to I mean this is this is why the corporate media environment just is it it just can never really inform people in any kind of deep and nuanced way about this stuff so a couple different things um number one what I think it makes more sense to look at PPP the nominal GDP that's a good that's a good start China being very high to some degree is because it's a pseudo communist country although they've become capitalist in so many of the industries but that's a different conversation because by virtue of being a communist country there are entirely large swaths of products that are manufactured in China and are subsidized by the government which artificially makes the PPP appear very very high so like that's a detail where even just looking at PPP you need to understand more about it so like okay that's super interesting Denmark out of roughly out of close to 200 countries Denmark's basically at the at the line of the top quarter right so 50 out of 200 roughly would be like you're at the line of the 25th percentile what you have to understand about Denmark is you don't have to pay for Health Care out of that PP like you're not buying health care you can take that completely out you're also not buying education because education is paid for through taxation so that's kind of interesting because if you were to disaggregate that in countries whether that's something that you're paying for out of pocket versus countries that you're not that would also kind of change the numbers and then just to throw a different metric out you know earlier I told you about how some of the blue states in the United States have very high HDI human development index which includes life expectancy at Birth how much schooling do you expect to get uh PE PPP is is one of those uh Denmark is number five in the world so the outcome that they're having as far as as far as quality of life once you understand okay 25th percentile with regard to PPP but you don't have to P worry about health care costs driving you to bankruptcy and all these different things the quality of life there is fifth out of nearly 200 countries that's pretty good yeah this to me um so this the point you made about China is exactly what I was trying to convey is at the surface it seems one way but then as you start to dig in you realize wait there's all these confounding variables the only way that they went from Ma's China to xiin Ping's China is to open up capitalism and begin to let that thrive but there still is the Hammer of the state and so it's like oh God like very complicated uh and then the HDI that kind of thing then begins to ask a question of values so going back to my notion that your frame of reference that the distorted lens through which view or attempt to view facts uh is built up of biology beliefs and values so now you value for instance and I'm literally just thinking of this as you're talking people may hate me for this but this is true you value ranking higher on the HDI whereas I value people being able to play for the championship team and so I'm looking at what is the place that creates the most Innovation that attracts the best and the brightest from all over the world and that's thrilling to me but I also am self-aware enough to know most people are not going to enjoy playing that game and so now you get some of what I think is happening now which again the plan a flag is not time to talk about yet I don't think but the where we're at in the debt cycle I think speaks to a lot of the unrest that we're seeing I think it speaks to a lot of the rise in populism because all of a sudden kids are like yo Boomers in their 20s had it way better than I have in my 20s which is true and they have access to a freakish amount of information so they know that's true and so there's all kinds of things from the food that we're taking in toxins all that stuff which is probably not a conversation for you and I but you've got all that happening but then you also just have it feels super lame for somebody coming into their early 20s right now and they're very aware of it and you now have them look at a country their own country sending foreign aid everywhere and even if it doesn't actually impact them like a they're not going to realize that they're just like billions of dollars are leaving but they're going to feel some kind of way about that and so now you throw social media onto the fire as you mentioned earlier which is further distorting those lenses that people are looking at this tribalism being innate to our sense of being and you just get these two groups jettisoning away from each other and when you you look back historically this happens like clockwork on that dead cycle and then It ultimately blows up and you get really bad things happening which is why for me I also think that this election uh is unusually important what do you do about dumb people that get to vote and I say that truly with love knowing that some people just they fall below an IQ level where they will be able to parse these very difficult issues and PS I'm actually perfectly willing to accept I'm one of the dumb people that's below the line that can adequately parse these things I'm perfectly fine with that but I'm just saying what do you do with that reality you know I I think my Approach is pragmatic I've had so many conversations with viewers over the years when they call in and they say David you know there should be restrictions on who's allowed to have kids there should be restrictions on who's allowed to vote there should be some kind of test where you have to at least understand you know you have to understand something or or I think it's I I I don't think about it much because that's not how we're going to improve the country or the world I at least as far as the United States is concerned I really try to focus on where we can make a difference and there is no path to some kind of intelligence test to vote legally uh nor is there any political will to do it I think either party that proposed it it would do nothing for them it would be a political Lo loser so I I honestly don't think about I think what you do is you you say how can we make people less dumb and that's what goes to to use your term um I think that's what gets to can we start teaching media literacy can we start teaching critical thinking earlier um what can we do about how should if at all social media be regulated you know I think these are the sorts of things I think it's more useful to think about um because I just don't think there's a path forward to solving any problem we identify with figuring out how how to prevent people from voting now I will tell you there is a political party that thinks that they will do better if they can prevent people from voting it's the it's the Republican party now we can argue about the reasons why and uh what they claim are the reasons and and you know it'll they will have their explanations but over the last I mean it kind of goes back to Mitt Romney where they started think about this Mitt Romney state director in Pennsylvania was talking about using voter ID as a tool to reduce Democratic turnout so that Romney would win Pennsylvania in 2012 and thus the White House why would that automatically affect uh Democratic voters the because all of the proposals that voter ID specifically or which one are you talking about voter ID yeah voter ID is an interesting one the people who want voter ID will usually say something like uh well Trump says you need an ID to buy bread so you should have an ID to vote it's not true you need an ID to buy bread so in case I don't know when you last bought bread but you you don't need one um but often what's stated is the ID is free so why would it be an impediment to anybody um the thing about the IDS is depending on what state you live in and the way that it's conceived of uh very often in order to get the ID you need subsequent documents that lower income people are less likely to have and those documents aren't always free to get for example birth certificates I know when when I had to get a copy of my daughter's birth certificate there was a cost associated with it and I had to go to City Hall and it had to be only during a three-hour window on a Tuesday during which people who are working May struggle to be able to to to go uh very often the documents you need to get the voter ID or the voter ID itself can only be done in certain parts of the state often requiring Transportation which itself costs money so anyway I think the idea here is that there's a calculation that's been made in certain states that if we put in place a voter ID requirement in a certain way it will disproportionately disfavor groups that we don't think are super likely to vote for us it's similar to the idea of reducing the number of polling places in urban areas which as we know there's an urban rural divide in Rural America there's rarely lines to vote in urban America there are often lines to vote if you reduce the number of places as you can vote or reduce early voting hours you will make the lines even longer it is disproportionately Democrats geographically who vote there some of them say I've got to get to work I don't have time to stand in this line you you can depress the Democratic turnout without hurting the Republican turnout these are the sorts of things got it um so on voter ID this is one of those that I may just not know enough about to understand why it's controversial but it seems so self-evident to me that you should have to have an ID to vote um just by way of and I I know the punchline already is that there isn't any voter fraud but if people don't have IDs I I haven't looked at it but it just seems if people don't have IDs how do you know whether there's voter fraud or not but um why isn't the approach to make getting the voter ID easier rather than just saying you don't need ID I actually would not be against a protocol for requiring voter ID if it included a guarantee that nothing that you would need to have in order to get the ID costs money right so because it's it's very easy to say the ID is free but if you have to accumulate expenses to obtain the documents to get the ID I think that it's a problem and it's arguably a pole tax so there's also like a legal and constitutional argument here uh if there is a cost to obtain the documents to get the ID if we could have a system I don't know if we could but I'm open to it so I'm not it's you know I'm not irrationally just like no no ID I don't have a problem with it if we can ensure that the cost aspect including the downstream cost is dealt with and there is a long enough Runway period that there is no like a lot of the problem now is trying to implement with six weeks to go hey you're going to need an ID and sometimes actually just lying that you're going to need an ID and you're not really going to just to try to dissuade people from voting because it sounds confusing or intimidating I'm not against it like I'm I'm open to a long Runway path to everyone needs an ID with some kind of guarantee and that has to include Transportation so like can you get the ID by mail well a lot of Republicans don't like that for the same reasons they don't like vote by mail they say that that's ripe for fraud so I'm not unreasonable in that there there are paths towards that that I would be okay with it's just not really the motivation of the Republicans who are trying to pass voter ID with 6 weeks to to go before an election AI might be the most important new computer technology ever so buckle up the problem is that AI needs a lot of speed and processing power so how do you compete with costs that are spiraling out of control Oracle Cloud infrastructure or oci oci is a single platform for your infrastructure database application development and AI needs oci has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds offers one consistent price instead of variable Regional pricing and nobody does data better than Oracle if you want to do more and spend less like uber 8x8 and data bricks Mosaic take a free test drive of oci at oracle.com Theory again that's Oracle / Theory oracle.com Theory yeah it's interesting I definitely haven't thought enough about it uh but this feels like a very solvable problem that has been politicized um for reasons that I'm sure if I looked at it closely would just be gross but uh nonetheless is weird uh we'll get to the Border but first let's talk about and I say that because obviously that that is one of the big things that people talk about that they're letting illegals come in so that they can vote uh we'll we'll get to the Border later but um let's talk about debt now because uh this is something that I think plays in the background and has probably created a lot of the profound sense of unease does the amount of debt that we have here in the US strike you as problematic oh man that that's a very loaded way to uh to to ask the question because there's so so much inbuilt you know debt first of all I guess I I don't know exactly your view on this issue but are we on the same page that national debt and household debt are not good analogies for figuring out how to run a country would you generally agree that to say hey you know what if you're spending $200 more each month than what you earn that's a problem that analogy doesn't necessarily Translate I have a feeling that we will agree but for violently different reasons and so under the hood we probably still really disagree but I don't know I actually don't know your economic take well I guess I'll take a different approach my my general view about national debt is there are stimulative and unstimulating there there are ways for the government to deficit spend that have an economic multiplier that make it logical to do so uh food stamps for example one of the absolute highest economic multiplier effects of any way that that governments can spend you by the way you don't have to deficit spend to pay for food stamps but under the assumption that we have a deficit and there is deficit spending food stamps have a massive economic multiplier very unlikely that any food stamp money is going to sort of like be left on the shelf or in the bank so to speak because the people receiving that money need it uh it's spent in local communities grocery stores which then hire people it's demand side stimulus because the grocery employees then have money to go out and spend it at a restaurant and okay so so like I think that that makes a lot more sense than a less stimulative uh uh way of of deficit spending like for example just saying let's just cut taxes for the rich very low marginal propensity to consume the money will mostly just sit in savings yes with fractional lending a portion of that will then be lent out but it's a lower multiplier than the food stamp so first of all I think what your deficit spending on matters secondly I do think you always want to be comparing debt to GDP in the same way that if your household income is 100k versus a million ,000 in debt nominally means something very different um I think we also want to compare the rate of the debt changing to the rate that the size of the economy is changing on a cumulative basis uh and also to interest rates because there's this other aspect where depending on what the interest rate is on the debt um versus what you can do in terms of innovation and economic growth with the deficit spending that's also important it's sort of like if you can get a 2% mortgage versus a 7% mortgage your choice as to whether you say I'll keep my cash in the market and get the 2% mortgage it's a form of of of Arbitrage that also makes a difference so like where when I zoom out I think the conversation has to be a little more nuanced you know some huge percentage of Americans don't even know the difference between the national debt and the national deficit that's like terrifying and they have opinions as to what should happen they don't know the difference between the debt and the deficit that's terrifying uh and also um I I do think that uh it's not the sky falling problem that some have been arguing for 70 years years where we're always two years from that's it it's over the economy is done and then we have a 100 new stock market highs with low unemployment reasonable inflation and pretty good GDP growth and it's like how many years were we from that and by the way I would say the same thing if we're at some point going to talk about global warming those who 10 years ago said 10 years from now it's going to be over Miami Boston and La will be underwater like I I also am resistant to that kind of hyperbole yeah uh I think that that is very wise this exactly how you end up finding where the truth lies um so here is why I think that debt is a screaming problem um not that collapse is imminent but that collapse does come if you're not very thoughtful so uh what I look at is what are the interest rate payments so uh the interest rates for sure matter a lot which is why this has been on everybody's mind so much right now um totally understand why you're drawing a distinction between the debt and the deficit uh I think that's very wise but if you look at what's happening right now we're adding roughly a trillion dollars to our debt every 100 days and hopefully that will slow down a little bit now that we just had the 50 basis points uh rate cut from the FED I'll be very curious to see if that if in actually remains in check which by the way we have to talk about inflation uh that will be interesting to um bounce our takes off each other so uh the reason that I think ultimately the debt ends up consuming people is the same reason that Empires end up collapsing because what you do is you build this Empire it gets bigger and bigger it ends up becoming this huge economic drag in the beginning it seems like it's just spoils everywhere everything's flowing in you're getting tax revenue you're getting goods from everywhere and then all of a sudden you're having to build military and protect and deal with uprisings and all that stuff and it ends up getting insanely bloated it drags you down and they all fall so they they have just Fallen one after another all throughout human history not a single one has ever lasted so now they last for a long time so while things are going wo we it can be a lot of fun and I'm not saying America is going to collapse in the next two years but will it collapse in the next 50 it might so that's where now will it be a controll demolition will it be one where there there is blood in the streets these are all great questions history says statistically it's more likely that there will be blood in the streets than not but uh as you get in these debt Cycles where the debt is just accumulating and you're spending more and more of your um your GDP your all the tax money that you're bringing in is just going to the interest payments that's where you begin to not be able to fund the things you want to fund whether it's a military social programs whatever so it's like you said something early in the interview that I agree with wildly which is hey I don't necessarily love the way the government is spending money but I also want social programs I want social programs I am not a Libertarian I'm not here saying we don't want government uh but what I am saying is government is wildly wildly inefficient at spending the money uh and because we have the world's Reserve currency and this is why I was saying I agree with you there's not a onetoone between uh balancing a household budget and a government spending deficit because they can print money uh but I believe that the government has has a moral obligation a moral obligation to not print money and so when they solve all these problems by printing money they turn everyone into gamblers and that I think is a huge reason why especially young people feel so much like they can't get ahead because prices have gone crazy uh when you're printing money people pour into assets and anybody that doesn't have assets gets left behind the wider that Gap gets the harder it gets to cross the chasm between being not necessarily outright poor but on the lower end of the spectrum getting into middle class or even upper middle class or Rich and so that uh deficit spending racking up a massive debt having huge outlays into interest and now playing this weird game of chicken with inflation you create the situation that we have now which I think is a very substantive part of the push towards populism so let me um let me play Devil's Advocate a little bit why do you think that the countries with the lowest debt to GDP ratios aren't particularly Dynamic economies or places where we would look at and say oh that seems interesting I mean you know some some of the places that have staved off having a high higher debt to GDP ratio for example you know Afghanistan Turkmenistan Russia's one the Democratic Republic of Congo is one they you would love these debt numbers right I mean you would look at this and say oh my goodness fiscal restraint in conservatism but why do you think that those countries aren't doing well if the the higher debt to GDP ratio is so problematic and it can it can be a rhetorical question or not I don't know if you want to answer it but like I have some ideas I'm happy to answer it yeah I'm sure yours are more well thought out with those specific Nations but knowing what I know about the physics of Economics it's going to be something along the lines of either things are so regulated that Innovation just doesn't happen and people have no uh desire will or even ability to get things moving it could also be that there's a sweet spot which I think you'd probably agree with where if you're too fiscally conservative then there's no money getting into the system uh there's no way for loans to get out into people's hands and therefore they might even be a brilliant um entrepreneur but if they cannot get any startup Capital they're just sitting literally in a dirt Hut I just had somebody on my show I'm going to punch myself in the mouth for not remembering uh who said this it was just recently but they were saying that you want to um give money to people with literally no thought of getting anything back it is not a micro loan that the best way to do humanitarian Aid is just go into a village and be like here's $9,000 equivalent I think it was in real cash like $900 but you're giving them the spending power of $99,000 to the individual person just being like do whatever you want and that that actually yields these better outcomes now what I take that to mean is there's either so much corruption in the country or their whole thing was even with good intentions the NGO that's trying to distribute that money ends up burning so much of it trying to make regulations and how do we give this money out and checking to see if they do the right things and all of that stuff that it eats 90% of the money literally 90% of the money and so that's like it's just a different type of economic mismanagement that doesn't reveal itself in that number of debt to GDP there are definitely pieces of that that make sense and that agree with I mean I think the The Sweet Spot idea is an interesting one to me I don't know if you and I would like land on exactly the same place necessarily but the truth is that debt is investment in growth and and when you see that there are extremely low debt to GDP ratios often it's because it's the missed opportunities that you're talking about there are ideas here that with access to debt could actually flourish and generate growth and there's no access to debt and therefore they don't um and uh there's like a dynamism and and sort of being responsive to demand that often is seen by there being more debt at the national level uh there's this other thing also that I think is interesting to consider which is that um sometimes you get these external shocks economic shocks to a country that can really damage the economy for pretty significant periods of time and sometimes being able to say well we're going to borrow to kind of weather this shock over a 10 or 20 year period the fact that that shock was weathered has a it's hard to like link it up dollar for dooll especially when like a crisis prevented is always less interesting than oh we had a crisis and and we got out of it but there's also something to be said for the effective the ability of debt to kind of dam in what would otherwise be a pretty significant economic shock and and countries with these super low debt to GDP ratios just don't even have that ability and so when there is an economic shock uh th things don't go well so yeah I mean I think we're kind of getting to a similar explanation for why the super low debt to GDP ratio which might sound appealing to a deficit Hawk usually is associated with countries with pretty poor economies yeah i' I'd make one change to what you said and I'm curious to see if we can agree on this you said debt is investment into growth I would change that to debt can be growth I agree with that yeah because I I think a big problem is that a lot of times the money just is not spent in an intelligent fashion um the the base assumption that I think all of this rests on and the reason that no one can ever escape this debt cycle and that it it always hits this point where you either go to war or some other traumatic thing happens that causes what is known as a debt Jubilee and it sounds wonderful but it's actually horri horrific when people live through it but the reason that I think that that that just keeps happening is it has the base assumption that things will always grow and that that certainly seemed true for about 50 years after World War II and so like you could forgive anybody that was just like oh my God like this works so well like just keep doing deficit spending we're really igniting the economy this is amazing look at us industrializing rapidly this is incredible and it really was somewhere in about the 70s though something started to break in terms of that and this is what I think young people today can feel is that hold on a second wages are not going up so we're getting a lot of cool new stuff I have an iPhone and that's dope and I have the internet and that's amazing however my wages aren't going up and Boomers not even my parents Boomers had more money in their 20s than I have now and so I feel trapped unable to get onto the properly ladder for for other reasons as well there are other things that are going on that have made asset prices way too expensive largely the printing of money but so that's where that indebted growth obligation becomes if it works like for instance right now everybody is like yo bro I hope AI comes in and Robotics and they're basically just infinite humans um because that is effectively how they could work inside of the economy but if they don't man I don't don't see anything on the horizon that's going to allow our GDP to outpace our debt so couple different things there couple different things there over the last several years wage growth has outpaced inflation so I think it's important because you you know you said there's no wage growth there have been periods of stagnant wage growth that's true uh but over over the recent few years actually wage growth has outpaced inflation that doesn't mean things have gotten cheaper because inflation is still more than zero and we'll we'll will get to inflation in a little bit your example about the 70s I think is really interesting again I would Point people to the book why Nations fail the you kind of described exactly what's described in this comparison of dividing countries into those with extractive versus inclusive institutions the Soviet Union example of initial growth you said oh it it sort of looked like things were just going to grow in definitely and then the 70s happened that's what's described as happening under extractive government institutions like what the Soviet Union has which is initially you can sort of make the allocation of resources more efficient because the government just says here is what what industry is going to do so initially there's this very positive shock wow look like we're we're either industrializing in the case of the Soviet Union in the early 20th late 19th century or for whatever reason you shock the system in a way and all of a sudden GDP starts going up but because the institutions are extractive eventually it stops because what one example would be oh there's a new technology that would make us even more efficient oh that technology would actually take power away from the institution to keep people working in some of these industries we will lose control of the economy so often these extractive institutions will resist creative destruction when a new technology would increase efficiency even more the growth stops which is what you saw in the 70s exactly as you're describing there was one other thing I wanted to touch on which now escapes me but may maybe we'll come back to it okay so um one thing I want to say to what you just said is as an entrepreneur this is what it felt like I don't have the data to be able to say for sure I know this definitively but Co changed everything for a hot minute and all of a sudden I had employees that were like everyone's going to let me work from home uh I'm getting stimulus checks from the government so I'm going to go do what I want and it caused us a massive bump in what we had to pay now I'm sure everybody thought oh this is amazing but it actually put the company in a far more difficult position it hemmed our growth in substantially because now all of a sudden our Capital outlays just to run the business went up dramatically and so that was just we were forced by market conditions to do that I mean some of the market conditions were a little false but like I don't mind that the the Market's going to do what the Market's going to do I'm not mad at it I don't expect anybody to bail me out um but I don't expect that trend to continue again this is gut instinct and maybe I'm totally wrong but as an entrepreneur we've now started making bigger demands in terms of hey at first it was you could work from home exclusively and then it was like three days uh then four and we will eventually get back to five days a week in the office for sure and it I can feel the tide changing in terms of there are way more people now looking for jobs especially for us because we're in the entertainment space we make video games as a part of what we do and there's just been a bloodbath in that industry so now all of a sudden there's the exact opposite pressure on wages I'm not going to have to pay as much because there is a glut of available people into the market and so while yes there's no doubt that was real uh and obviously beneficial to workers I don't think it came with a corresponding increase in output and productivity and therefore actual GDP in dollars and cents that all of us as a society can reap the benefits of so I would again gut instinct I'm gonna expect that to stagnate I don't necessarily expect it to go back down but I don't think that growth is going to continue and so you're still going to have that same sense of fancy word time on WE that people have that like n things are just not working out for me I don't know how to crack in which means that they're pulling back even more they're not pushing as hard we're not getting the full weight of the talent and intelligence of this next generation and so it's going to leave you in the situation of like how do you shock the economy again to get it running and so far the only thing both Trump and Biden have done so I assume Harris will run the same Playbook which is to print money and you'd say a little bit more about but so first of all you're making a very Progressive argument I mean one one of the one of the reliable left-wing economic arguments is growth will not continue forever how do we know that because the planet only has such a carrying capacity we may be very far from getting to that different people Come Away with different opinions about how far we are with any particular resource or space for people or whatever and either the planet will no longer support more growth at a physical level or the declining birth rates will lead to declining populations and that's also going to put downward pressure on GDP but interestingly you're you're actually very much in line with some of the most Progressive economists on this issue I don't know if that surprises you uh as far as that goes I I care only about what is true so I consider myself left or right my thing uh is you should be pushing towards a known metric I'm trying to do this and to achieve that metric I'm going to run some experiments and then I need to look at and see if they work so if I mean if communism led to the most human flourishing then I would be a communist but looking at it that doesn't seem to be true so now will we all agree on what human flourishing is no but I've literally dedicated my life to my definition of what human flourishing is so uh yeah I that doesn't land weird for me in the slightest but I what I want to look at is what works what doesn't and if something doesn't work even if it sounds good I'm not going to do it and so I love the Thomas Soul quote which will certainly throw uh people's perception of me to the right but his idea that we have I think he said the in the last 30 years but this is like 20 years ago the last 30 years been marked by exchanging what works for what sounds good and so my thing is yeah I I don't care what sounds good I want to know what actually works and if what works happens to be Progressive left right up down that I don't care about I just want to make sure that things actually work so here's a question because you talked about shocking you know a shock to the economy to get it going again which metrics do you look at right now and you say here's the data that tells me the economy is having a problem right now uh so debt interest rates inflation GDP those are both nominal GDP and PPP uh I suppose the nominal is just because I'm competitive and I want to see how we stack up in the world um but yeah those that is the basket and then the less easily tracked but something along the lines of what you're talking about with with an HDI like thing that measures whether people feel good or bad like even even if young people have it better today than ever before by every metric they're unhappy they are attempting suicide more frequently they are succeeding in suicide more frequently um death of Despair among men in certain age groups has gone up so much that it's actually lowered the entire uh generation's life expectancy that that is terrifying something is off so all of these things are proxies but they're the closest basket of things um that I can see to say are we okay or not that's interesting I think that the latter ones you mentioned there are kind of in a different basket because there's a more cultural Dynamic to it and we can talk about them too the first ones you know you we debt we already talked about so I think we don't have to like go back to debt but you know you've kind of stated your view I've stated my view when I look at the inflation and the GDP numbers they really seem pretty okay I mean you know you don't want deflation because we know that a deflationary spiral brings with it a number of different issues Japan side other places have seen it we now have inflation at the arguably desirable two to 3% the GDP growth the numbers seem pretty okay to me GDP growth is exceeding inflation so I I just struggle to find like an alarm in those metrics right now okay so uh this is where we're going to get into beliefs and values so I think that we have a major problem with inflation at 2 to 3% and that is because if you think of inflation as rising prices then what I'm about to say won't make any sense but Rising prices is the symptom of what inflation actually is which is putting enough what I'll call fake money into the system such that it overwhelms the natural improvements in output so you can actually put fake money into the system and as long as the output of the country meaning the goods and services that they put out that people are willing to pay for as long as that's more than the fake money that you put into the system you can get away with it and I think the government literally counts on that so I'll give you just fake math this is totally fake but imagine that we have through Innovation new companies coming online all of that we um increase GDP by 5% and you put fake money into the system at 3% now you've still your 2% positive so you're moving in the right direction things would feel uh nominally better so what ends up happening though is that we are putting so much money in the system at times that we exceed the natural um advantages we should have gotten from The Innovation the deflation in costs right that a phone should cost a lot less a TV should cost a lot less all that stuff uh you the government ends up printing enough money to try to gobble up a lot of that stuff and so so the reason they do that I have a a very simple explanation for why I believe the government does this they are able to spend money that they don't have without having to ask anybody for it so they just say hey we want to fund a war we can do that we don't have to ask we can literally just deflate the currency by printing more money we did not have to get the electorates approval to do so uh but and for anybody that doesn't understand why I think inflation is immoral uh I view inflation as theft because what ends up happening is yes the government let's say I have $100 in my bank account the government left all $100 in my bank account but they put so much more money into the system without creating additional outputs that now those $100 that we all have are fighting for the same Goods which means that the cost of the goods is going to go up it's very simple supply and demand so now maybe my $100 buys me $95 worth of stuff and if you're doing that year after year after year even at 3% it's something like in 15 years you've lost some ungodly percentage of your wealth so because of that we have this economic system where you have to become an investor you cannot save your money you have to invest it in something that will beat inflation now going back to my initial thing that these things are very complicated even I run businesses sold a company for a billion dollars like I know my way around money but even I don't like to invest money that like it's a whole another game I just want to be able to save my money I would live my life very differently if I knew that in my bank $100 now will buy me $100 worth of stuff in 10 years 20 years I would never even think about investing money because I wouldn't need to I could just squirrel away enough money for me to live on but you can't because the cost of living changes so radically and I used to think that was a fundamental law of nature it is not that is money manipulation on behalf of the fed and the government and if they didn't do it then it wouldn't change it it would be um $100 would be $100 now you could any one person could get obliterated and that's obviously what they're trying to protect against by manipulating it they're hoping that they can sort of balance things out nobody Peaks too high nobody Falls too low all right I'm I'm gonna be totally honest and I say this with peace and love there was a lot of word salad in there and it may just be that I don't I I may not have the cognitive capacity to understand all of it let me see if we can break down a couple things because a few things you said just are not making any sense to me okay so let me if if you can answer this one with just a number and then I can just to frame my answer that would be good what level of inflation would you like to see Zero Zero not negative but not positive correct okay I think there's a couple problems with what you're talking about so first of all in a sense if there's growth there's going to be inflation and what I mean by that is in an economy that's not a Communist economy which you and I are on the same page like we've gotten this big obstacle through we've gotten past a big obstacle which is neither one of us thinks a Communist economy is is the ideal way to set things up unless you're in a Communist economy or Institute price controls or whatever the case may be if your population grows and there's more demand for goods and services because of a growing population um you that is going to put some upward pressure on pricing due to Market forces the odds that that leaves you at zero in this perfectly calibrated system seems essentially impossible historically in capitalist countries like when there is growth and when there is a growing population and when there is demand for stuff that puts upward pressure again is that do we age that we don't so what we're disagreeing about and this is why I started with if you believe that inflation is the rising of prices everything I'm going to say won't make any sense inflation is not Rising prices inflation literally ask what's inflating what's inflating is the money supply so as you put more money into the system that's what I want at zero I'm not saying prices won't go up and prices won't go down in fact over time typically prices tend to go down what I'm saying is don't inflate the money supply so if you have uh $20 trillion whatever the M2 money supply is lock it that's it that's all you've got spend it wisely because you can't make more of it but under that would would you not expect that if what you are arguing has happened as a result of the money supply increase if if it has happened wouldn't we expect PPP to decline in the United States in other words you said that in an ideal system the $100 now buys you the same amount as 100 in the future your concern if I understood it correctly is that when you increase the money supply the hundred now will only buy you $95 in the future but PPP has gone up over time despite the increase to the money supply despite inflation because of all of the other things that have gone on in the economy that are do make sense PPP has gone up consistently in the United States it's the opposite of what your view would predict if I understand you correctly so not quite so what what's happening certainly right now is that everybody is printing money and if you think of it as a game of musical chairs it works until the Music Stops and so this is why these debt Cycles end up bursting so Ray Delio's mapped this out really well there's six stages of debt so the rough thing is in the beginning nobody has any debt because a very bad thing just happened so if you think of the end of World War II as the beginning of this most recent uh large debt Cycle World War II just wiped the board it changed everything it made the US dollar the reserve currency the British pound lost its status so it was just an absolute blood bath for all of Europe for England in particular their empire literally collapsed so now you get a new start though and so there aren't all these uh the US anyway as the new Empire does not have all these debts in fact they've got a lot of people that owe them money so you get like a really awesome period where everything is going well but to fuel growth you begin to start taking on debt you let that debt then begin to ratch it up ratch it up ratch it up all the while you're a lot of it to your earlier Point you're actually fueling the economy so you're taking on debt but the economy is continuing to grow when you're spending it in a stimulative fashion and it's working out everything's great and then like we said you hit the 70s and something starts to get wonky that's when we break the association with gold so the dollar is no longer backed by the gold so now we have a literal Fe currency and so gold is tricky because it does technically inflate by 2% per year but if you think of that as a um non-inflationary U monetary system where you can't spend a dollar that doesn't exist in Gold then it's like you you have a break but once you get to a Fiat system where you can just make more of it more of it more of it now all of a sudden you're at risk so how long will things go up and PPP keeps going up it could be for a long time man and this is the high risk of somebody with my worldview is that you call two of the last uh 24 or you call 24 of the last two recessions right it just you're always like the sky is falling like it's going to be bad tomorrow it may not it may go on for a very long time but once you look backwards at history you realize at about the 150 to 200 year mark Empires collapse and so depending on where you start that clock the US is either I think 75 years or 100 plus years into this uh and so will we lose the dollar Reserve status and suddenly all of these things that we're working and PPP is going up and everybody's happy and fat and loving it and it just comes crashing down um that's the question so can we get out of the debt cycle if we don't get out of a Fiat system that that is the question yeah I think um I think we just disagree on the facts you know I think we may not be able to get that much further with this because I think if I understand correctly you're you're sort of saying you know David you you are actually right about the data you're presenting what I'm saying is external to the data based on what I expect to happen which is totally fine it's just harder to make a counterfactual a couple things I will say is I really I like a lot of Ray Doo's writing but his long-term debt cycle idea is contradicted and very much undercut in a number number of different ways one he doesn't really account for the fact that technological disruption and Innovation on a on a semi-permanent basis can completely disaggregate the booms and busts in the kind of next 50 or 75 or 100 years as you're talking about from just like looking at debt and the other thing I think that's important to consider is that we have seen booms and busts that do not in any way correlate with significant increases in debt like for example if you look at the '90s . boom it was driven by technology there was a bust neither the boom nor the bust was connected to debt and like that's a really good example of where like the debt was really secondary tertiary or not even particularly relevant to that cycle and there's a lot of other really good economic theory that I think more accurately maps onto the booms and busts that we've seen like I get that you're saying well what you're saying is in the future and it may or may not happen fine but we actually do have data about prior booms and busts and they were totally decoupled from from the debt so I'm skeptical of the argument uh I'm skeptical of that argument but with appropriate amounts of humility as I haven't gone back and studied the specific um uh do bust in that sense but I will tell you how businesses go out of business you don't go out of business if you're not in debt and then suddenly finding yourself unable to pay that debt so I'm gonna guess just knowing how this stuff works that these guys got way out over their skis in terms of they went public people gobbled up a ton of their shares um they were raising against their shares they were carrying a ton of debt on the books and when the um the equity in their shares plummeted then the banks called their loans and they weren't able to pay them back they were riding on the debt and so this is why uh my advice to people if you're going to invest never do it on margin you do not want to be in a situation where the um value of your collateral ends up dropping it gets called and pulled and that's how you end up with nothing that's why so many companies went bust they weren't actually making money they just raised a ton of debt and they were wildly unprofitable and so that's where this all gets cleaned out this is why a company like Amazon can go through that and yes their stock price fell to virtually nothing but they had so much revenue coming in that they survived and you get on the other side of this and this is you know you actually um talked about creative destruction earlier this is why you don't want the FED coming in and doing all of this manipulation yes you protect people from a stock market crash like that but everything remains fake which is why there are very um I think very educated people right now calling this the everything bubble that we're in in this moment because we're not letting anything fail everything is too big to fail and so whether it's your Regional Bank they'll let one or two go down and then they scramble in to make sure that nobody loses their money uh obviously what happened in 2008 they had to come in and pick up all the pieces and start putting things in place to make sure that the whole world just didn't fall fall off a cliff and I understand why they want to do it but part of the reason that people were able to get into that situation in the first place is because they were able to take on absolutely irresponsible levels of debt and so when and if you look at Rayo just um I mean a fun statement I guess nobody has one bigger betting on their beliefs about global movements than Ray alio so he's somebody who very much puts his money where his mouth is in terms of the outcomes being able to predict not just thatt that's certainly not the only thing that he looks at um but taking that historical view is according to him what allows him to be so precient in the moves that he makes yeah I think uh a lot of what this comes down to is really about demand side and that's kind of where I fall and that's I think something that reinforces my view about whether a debt is sorry what do you mean by demand side oh I'm I'm explain in a moment um when we talk about debt in proportion to something when it comes to a company ultimately its survival longterm is going to depend on demand for the product or service that they are offering and so like for example during the pandemic my business experienced a significant expansion because people were home and there was more demand for stuff to fill time that I used to be doing something different and now I'm at home I'm going to listen to stuff I'm going to watch David or something like that I could weather a certain amount of debt if the demand for my product or service is such that it proportionally makes the debt something that I can tolerate if I get out over my skis and something impacts the demand side then all of a sudden some nominal amount of debt that would be tolerable in one business scenario is no longer tolerable I guess the point I'm making is when it comes to your critique or your analysis of some of the dotom busts it came exactly to there was no Revenue there wasn't actually demand built there and the amount of debt that can be tolerated is dramatically different based on what sort of a demand environment we're we're talking and so my economic perspective and I think that of social democracy is that by ensuring that people don't end up going into a medical bankruptcy for example I'm giving them the dollars with which to demand stuff products and services from me as an entrepreneur or from you or from whoever else it's that demand side approach that to me Rings far more true than the kind of austerity measure supply side let's cut government spending side which I don't think history shows is a way that you can get to Prosperity so interesting so here's why I have beef with that okay um uh if you were doing it in a balanced budget way and you were saying hey uh we're going to marginally increase taxes on the wealthy this is how we're going to pay for everything and I had a transparent budget that I could look at and I understood that you expect to take in this much in uh revenue from Taxation and you're going to spend this much and there's either a surplus or we're very close to breaking even but we're certainly not overspending then I'd be like word man like we've got this much coming in in tax like what are we going to do with it let's make sure it's awesome let's make sure that we're not falling prey to the we're spending so much on all the government departments that you know 40 cents of every dollar collected in taxes is all that makes it to the actual people but like hey if we can distribute this well and everybody agrees these are the programs that we want to fund I think it's awesome where we get into trouble and this is going back to your you're uh you're exactly correct in the analysis of how it works but you and I differ in terms of what we think could happen so if you don't have debt and you do have Revenue then you're you're in a way better position you can even lose a fair amount of Revenue before you potentially go negative but when you have Revenue a massive amount of debt and your Revenue drops you can still get in trouble even though you have millions of dollars in revenue and that's what I'm saying is a very fragile place to be in and that mimics what we're doing here and by the way to cover any losses that we have to operate at a deficit what we do I'm going to use language you're not going to be comfortable with but it will help you understand my frame of reference the government literally just steals the buying power from the people they do not ask they just take that money in form of inflation and then they pay for whatever they want and that creates this wildly undisciplined thing that to your point it works for a while but then it will in My View From looking back at history it does 100% of the time eventually fail Well it can't be 100% of the time because it hasn't failed yet here I mean in other words you're assuming it will we you can't that's a predictive statement we just don't know that's fair up up to America has 100% of the time every economy that has tried this has ended up every Empire that has tried this has ended up failing so when you failure bias you have to admit because there there are lots of countries that are doing okay right now with a high debt to GDP ratio and so what you're kind of saying is they will all eventually fail maybe they will but a bunch of them seem to be doing okay I mean Australia has a high debt to to GDP ratio but I don't you know I don't follow Australian politics closely there's probably people there predicting the the impending demise of the Australian economy but I I think that there are a bunch of economies right now that are doing okay with relatively high debt to GDP ratios similar to that of the United States and none of they haven't failed yet so I think that the it's it's hard to say that so unilaterally well so let me be very clear about what I am saying so um I agree that you can operate at a uh you can have a debt compared to your GDP and as long as at some interval you end up catching up with that before meaning you then have a surplus so that you can actually pay the debt uh the reason it became so scary in this exact moment is because interest rates were rising and getting to the point where the government was going to have to spend all of its money uh just paying off the interest rate um so obviously that's why that gets troubling but the um operating at a debt to GDP level that's sustainable obviously works works all over the world but it does require that you eventually have these moments of catch up or that you're at a point where you can constantly be making the payments on your debt and as long as nothing goes wrong with the interest rates you're good but again we all just live through whether it's over or not it's another question but we just live through a higher it's not high by historical standards but a higher interest rate environment and woo it made those interest rate payments pretty nasty and that was money just outgoing that could have otherwise been going to projects and I think the programs excuse me and I think the right way to think about it is when you are um running with those kind of Interest levels you are robbing from your children's future because that money will have to be paid back well you're not robbing from your children's future if the debt is being used to improve the country in which your children will live and I think that that gets to one of the fundamental points and that it has an economic return but that's very let me say your position so you know I understand and still am banging my drum uh that if you're using the debt as a stimulative um format to to get the economy turning and the economy because of that debt investment actually outputs more than it required to get it going you actually made more GDP you made everybody's lives better by investing that debt yeah yeah so I'm saying even understanding all of that yeah there's still other gotas coming yeah that that may be I think one of the things I would be curious to hear from you is okay listen hey you're even though we've not been able to see examples of cutting our way to prosperity in any Western developed Nation before we're going to give you the keys and you're allowed to start cut I mean I I assume the way you would balance would be by cutting government spending is that right or I don't want to assume if that's not how you would do it you only have two levers you cut and you hope that you make more so I'd be doing everything I could to stimulate the economy to get the best and the brightest to come here to America to make incredible things that the whole world wants and yes I would cut I guess my question is when you start cutting when you reduce government spending there's going to be less money for Education infrastructure projects Public Services Health Care uh transit systems hiring a private company to build the new subway cars which employ so many people so when you cut that money um there's fewer jobs because right this is demand side some of those companies now they lay people off because that next project isn't coming the fact that fewer people are working is going to reduce GDP because GDP has been reduced entrepreneurs will say I don't know that I'm doing this startup because there's fewer people who can even afford the product or service that I'm selling in other words you're cutting not to Prosperity you're cutting to the opposite so I'm curious about that how do you how would you do that how do you cut to Prosperity so I think the right way to look at it is to understand that you don't want to keep everything alive so some things really do need to die some things need to really have pressure on them to get more efficient and so looking at the the frame that you put on it is hey you're going to be taking money out of all these programs and that's just less money that you have to spend that's already true right so we're not capturing 100% of the economy and putting it into programs so we're already accepting that there are limitations what I'm saying is you want to do a very difficult game this is going to be hard as hell and it will require people to say okay what is the outcome that we want we're testing cutting this or U bringing on sectors here deregulating this to upregulate the economy and then we're going to take in the money that we got from those wins and apply them to these programs and either you get that outcome that you desire or you don't but the it may be the core difference that I'm saying let the market decide in terms of what is valuable what's not what programs are worth keeping what programs aren't but if you operate from the base assumption that if I inflate the money supply it deranges the whole system in the simplest one is it forces everybody to become a gambler they have to invest in order to outpace inflation now if inflation were a law of nature fine but it's not it's literally the government and the FED putting extra money into the system so yes you have to tighten the belt yes you want to be extremely careful about what you cut how you regulate versus deregulate to make sure that the economy is growing and there's no way around having to try to figure out that dance but my base assumption is the way that you're presenting it is guaranteed looking backwards of history is guaranteed to cause the collapse of the reserve currency because ultimately you inflate it so much that other governments stop using it and it's we're already seeing it happen now uh and once people lose faith in that you lose the ability to print that money anyway because you're effectively borrowing from the people so uh it it has historically broken every time it's been tried by a reserve currency you acknowledge though other than all of the times that it seems to be going okay enough right now other than the snapshot that we're living in that this is the thing that scares me about the death cycle is that uh everything seems fine until it shatters and there's a world war or uh there's a revolution but the number of times it's more than 50% of the time it ends in open Bloodshed in the streets is the only way to re-regulate the debt uh I'm I'm it sounds like we're kind of getting to the Natural end on this topic but one just one other question on this is do you have any examples of a country that cut its way to economic prosperity in other words things were bad they cut government spending and all of a sudden standard of living increases by however however you want to measure standard of living so I think it's a wrong question so I'll just say no let's say that that's never existed ever in human history and it's never going to happen the reason I still think it's the wrong question is that what what I'm saying may be just as simple as uh The Jig Is up and you're not going to be able to deficit fund any more growth because we're already in shaky territory and so now it is how do we manage the um the decline of the US dollar as the reserve currency that that may be the punchline of what I'm saying again whatever is true is true I'm I'm not worried about that what I'm focused on is okay if I know that I can't deficit spend forever which I understand you don't agree with but from my worldview you can't deficit spend forever for reasons of just looking at history and seeing this happen over and over and over uh and I know I'll just take your um assumption that I cannot cut my way to Prosperity but what I know I can do is I can cut my way to a balanced book and so now I may not be growing as fast as I was and for sure people are going to be very pissed off because nobody likes to live under austerity and it may be in fact here's here's what I think is actually going to happen it is so politically unpalatable to live under austerity this is going to end in war that that's what I think is actually going to happen I just engage with people in the hopes that somebody sees a way out of this um but boy oh boy I don't have the answer be all right well I guess let's give it a 100 years and see if you like this conversation check out this episode to learn more not just the $35 trillion in debt or the fact that um that interest on the debt is now overtaking the budget but when you really start to get into like the derivatives and how much actual debt there is how the dollar being the world Reserve currency has kind of been