Kind: captions
Language: en
GDP measured in nominal terms is a gross
Distortion and then CPI is a gross
Distortion if I if I have a 100 things
that you want and I pick 10 of them and
I measure the increase in the price of
10 and I ignore the price in the other
90 I can show you CPI is 8% right 88.3%
is the number this morning but the
actual inflation rate is higher but it's
it's inflation on
something like it's inflation on
something you want but I'm not going to
choose to measure for example you know
the 30-year bond is is traded up to
350 basis points and it was 180 right
mortgages have doubled so mortgages have
doubled housing prices are up
35% and that means in you know in theory
the cost for you to actually buy a home
is going to be 50 60% higher
year-over-year but I don't choose to
measure it because we don't actually
calculate CPI that way I take a survey
and I ask you whether or not you think
you could raise your rent by something
and if the owner equivalent rent is up
3% and I say that the inflation is three
or five so we have a set of metrics that
are that are just ma manufactured
metrics and then we focus on them and
then we talk about them but ultimately
um what you have is an economy that's
distorted there is some some things we
produce more
of and there and there are some things
we produce less of and we have
flexibility with what we choose to
measure the uh the monetary intervention
is the government
basically if I put everybody under home
arrest for a
year it's going to be a problem for the
economy right I mean if I shut down they
did it in New Zealand they did it in
Australia they did it in Canada they
kind of did it in certain states in the
US if I do that that cripples the
economy
so while I'm doing
that then if I go ahead and I pump a lot
of money in the
system right then maybe I I create a
wealth effect and I can say well you
know we're recovering But
ultimately you never recover from the
fact that nobody went to school for a
year and no nobody you know went to work
for a year right you can't you you've
lost that forever you're just not
measuring it you you can you can change
your
metrics right there's this there's a
saying right the the winners write the
history
books so the Romans remember the
carthaginians been as being like evil
right if if we win the war then we write
out all of the good that our adversary
did and we
write up all the good that we did and we
suppress all the bad that we did because
we won the war right the history books
and so I think right now what you're
what you see in the economy is lots of
distortion of numbers lots of distortion
of metrics right the fact that we have a
debate over whether we are in recession
or not is is kind of laughable right
because we've been in a recession for 24
months if you were measuring the
production of goods and
services all you got to do is look at
the variety things that were available
to you in January of 2020 versus the
variety of things available to you today
and the
delays if you've got on Tenth the
selection and it takes three times as
long to get it and it costs 20% more how
are you not in a recession yeah this is
what really is um I find unnerving as I
go down the road of trying to figure all
this out trying to figure out where the
opportunities are is I'm looking at what
feels like and again I wanted to give
that it will be it's being done with
good intention but you have uh a
changing definition of what a recession
is to match a thing that seems designed
very explicitly to keep people calm and
uh it seems the same thing with the FED
right the reason that they said we're
not even thinking about thinking about
taking up rates they just want to keep
everybody calm so we're told things not
necessarily because they will be the
most effective long term or at least
that the outcome is that they don't end
up being effective but they're looking
at the short-term impact of I want to
make sure that people stay calm and I'll
admit if they were like oh my God the
world is burning and everything is bad
like then people are going to act like
it's 10 times worse and so that's why I
feel like if I'm if I start putting the
pieces together there's really three
pieces that I think give us the
situation that we're in um as you have
said people just don't understand money
and so you said half of the problems
that we face as a civilization have to
do with the fact that we do not
understand money that was pretty
interesting and then you've got this
top- down control so centralized
decision- making which is destined to
fail historically just looking at it it
does not work and then the third thing
is human emotion and so you put these
things together in a cocktail and you
get the moment that we're living through
so you've got people freaking out you've
got other people know that you're going
to freak out so trying to control
everything trying to say hey I can make
better decisions than you I'm going to
tell you sort of white little lies is to
get you where I need you I mean I I
think back to the mask statement right
in the beginning it's like they don't
work actually you need to wear them all
the time uh they didn't work when they
wanted to save them for hospital
employees and suddenly they started
working when there was enough for all of
us to wear them and so it's like I get
it again good intentions but without
sort of a pathological fear of doing
this top down control you get this issue
and then compound the fact even if
people wanted to think through the
process for themselves they don't
understand it
and so I feel like I'm just barely
beginning to understand how money
actually works and I think now we should
get into um Bitcoin as a thing that
exemplifies some very powerful
principles that will begin to help
people understand so the the first thing
that I'm G to say and I say this knowing
that you will correct me if I'm
incorrect but here is my understanding
of what makes Bitcoin so interesting
that money is basically your Financial
energy put into a form that can be
carried across space and time some forms
allow you to carry across space and time
easily some not so much but getting
people just to understand that I go do a
thing that is my physical energy my
physical labor my time my actual like
turning uh oxygen and food into ATP and
I'm actually able to put that into a
medium right it could be gold it could
be uh fiat currency or it could be
Bitcoin but just getting people to
understand holy like there's
actually a way for me to do a thing
receive a thing that allows me to carry
that energy across time and if if you'll
bear with me it's like fat so I can eat
a bunch of food and I can store it on my
body as fat but if I'm really smart I
will eat a bunch sort of my body is fat
and I will give a bunch away because I'm
too full I can't keep eating I will give
a bunch away and essentially store fat
on their bodies so the next time if I
don't get food they do get food so the
idea of being able to transfer useful
things across time and space in unique
ways is really important so Bitcoin
comes along as certainly the newest
entrant and maybe the best entrant of
things that allow you to Sock away your
time and energy into that and carry it
across time and
space Have I understood that correctly I
think that's what said I mean
fundamentally money is an energy system
to to trans transer energy over time and
space right that's the right way to
think of it uh fat is an organic battery
it's it's it's your way to transfer
organic energy if you put 20 or 30
pounds of fat on your body you can live
for 90
days right and if you don't you don't
eat you die so fat was developed over
the course of millions you know 70
million mamillion years and it's a
pretty wonderful invention when you
think about it it's it's it's the reason
that we didn't go extinct or the reason
you're not dead
um I've built my career on staying
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impact the the challenge with money is
uh the Fiat currencies that are used
commonly as money they're all broken
they all have a big hole in them and uh
and the big hole is inflation period end
of story or is there something
else the hole is we could call it
inflation but inflation is such a
Charged term because most people think
inflation is CPI
the defect in Fiat currencies is
monetary inflation it's the expansion in
the money supply not just the increase
in consumer goods because the CPI is a
distorted it's a submetric right if if
you look at the US dollar the dollar is
the supply of dollars has been
increasing 7% a year for 90 years it's
been increasing 15 to 20% a year for the
past two
years right right so the the big think
that's true so it seems worth walk us
through how where do you get that number
well if you go back to
1930 my house in Miami Beach cost
$100,000 and if you roll the clock
forward to
2012 it cost $4 million and today it
would cost your $40
million so so it's 400 times more
expensive
than it was you know 90 92 years ago now
if you back solve that you'll find that
that works out to about a 6% or 7%
annualized inflation rate right and if
you go and look at any kind of scarce
desirable asset something that's
something that is uh you can't make any
more of you'll find typically they
increase in cost about 7% a year
normally you can actually see uh if you
look at the market basket of things
people like want like really good health
care really good
education uh you know a beach house in
the Hamptons uh artwork
picassos right that kind of stuff that
doesn't go up in price one or two
percent a year that goes up in price
normally about 7% a year and uh if you
look at the at the price of a a basket
of stocks like the S&P the S&P has gone
up about 10% a year well the reason it's
gone up 10% a year is because the money
supply expanded at 7% a year and then
the underlying companies probably grew
two or three% you know effectively so uh
you can figure this out for yourself if
you just got start to go and take
samples of what stuff cost in 1971 what
it cost in 1930 what it cost in in the
year 1950 and what you'll see is that
for anything that's really
desirable like uh scarce energy that has
energy content it doesn't go up in price
2% now the stuff that that that uh
doesn't go up in price is expensive is
stuff that's highly
manufactured with low in low energy
content High information content so for
example a streaming video on YouTube or
something that could be Stamped Out in
quantity 100 million at a
time box food right stuff highly
manufactured stuff uh that has machine
generating it or even better you know
something that's got cheaper right it it
cost a lot of money listen to
Beethoven's Fifth Symphony if the
orchestra plays at
1850 but it costs not that much to
listen to Beethoven's Fifth Symphony if
you're listening on your iPhone three or
airpods right so if I can strip the
materal the matter and the energy out of
the product I can provide that to you
very cheaply so the information content
products got cheap but Stakes right more
expensive although there's a slight
benefit if you can manufacture 100,000
cows and I can use machines right then
there that's a deflationary thing one
thing you can't easily manufacture more
of is three acres of beachfront property
in the
Hamptons that's very difficult right and
if you look at the cost of a Palm Beach
House they're $100 million right now
okay so $100 million for a house on two
acres or three acres in pal beach now
ask yourself the question why isn't that
getting cheaper that thing's going up a
lot
so the problem coming back to money is
is um Fiat currencies aren't anchored in
energy uh when we were on the gold
standard theoretically during the gold
age 1870 to
1914 if a if a dollar uh was convertible
in a 20th ounce of gold right and you
really pegged it to
Gold then you're anchoring the
currency into a hard asset now gold
isn't um isn't um fixed in Supply the
gold Supply increases at 2% a year two
to three% a year so if you're on the
gold standard that means that the supply
of money would be increasing at 2% a
year or in otherwise doubling every 35
years so so money under the gold
standard perfectly executed bleeds
energy every 35 years it's got a
halflife of 35 years but that creates
stable prices Tom because the economy
grows at two to three perc a year so if
the economy grows 3% a year if the money
loses 3% of its value a year then
everything kind of stays stable right
the demand increases the supply
increases right that's a good situation
in that case you can save your money and
30 years from now your money will be
worth as much as it is
today now if um if it turns out that
you're saving your money and the supply
of money is increasing at 7% a year then
the money is cut in half every 10
years right and so that means in 30
years uh the amount of money you have
will be cut in half once twice three
times so you would you would have uh 12
a half% of your wealth in 30 years
saving money under the Fiat standard uh
under under a 7% regime now 7% was the
about the rate that the US was inflating
the dollar supply but in the developing
World in weaker countries uh you would
see them inflate the do the the money
supply about double that 14% so the half
life of their money is five years the
half life of the dollar is 10 years most
people don't even know this 10 years as
halflife except that
anecdotally if you you asked anybody in
the past 20 years are you going to save
your life savings in a checking account
that earns one or two% interest in
dollars they would tell you no I I know
intuitively the cost of a college
education is going to go up the cost of
a house is going to go up I can't just
save in dollars that generate Z perc
interest so the so under the Fiat
standard the money supplies expanding
from 7 to 14% a year depending on where
you are until we got to covid and covid
everything doubled and so you started
seeing a much more rapid collapse in the
value of fiat currency the US dollar
expanded the money supply uh 15 to 20% a
year and so in the US we expanded the
money supply maybe 40% and so us single
family homes went up and priced 40% oh
God I think about the correlation the
price of a house is 40% higher than it
was 24 months ago the amount of money in
dollars is 40% higher than 24 months ago
the number of houses are about the same
the number of people that want them
about the same makes sense now if you go
to other countries if you look at uh
currencies outside the US in the past 12
months right the Chinese currency is
weakened 7% Australians down eight the
Euros down 15% the wands down 15 the
pounds down 17 South African rans down
18 polish zot down 18 and Japanese Yin
down
24% in dollar terms what's happening
they're printing more money right it's
even a bigger issue for them the
Japanese have pegged the 10-year
interest rate at 25 basis points and um
the US 10-year interest rate right is is
uh more than 10x that the Japanese
Central Bank is printing infinite Yin in
order to keep in order to buy every Bond
and keep the price of bonds much much
higher than they would otherwise be so
they're holding up the price of bonds by
pumping yen in the economy and the
reason as they do that the Yen crashes
against the dollar but of course it's
even crashing faster against scarce
desirable assets if you price a barrel
of oil in dollars it just got 24% more
expensive in ja why they do that because
they want to hold up prop up asset
prices they want Pro they have
institutions that are holding Bond
portfolios of Yen and the they have
institutions Holding stock
portfolios and if they stop printing yen
to hold up the asset prices those those
uh portfolios of assets will
crash and if they crash worse than the
inflationary impact well if those
portfolios of assets crash then the
banks or the investors that hold them
will be technically insolvent and go
bankrupt if I'm a bank and I have 10
billion of assets and seven or8 billion
in loans
outstanding then I look solvent but if
those assets are in sovereign debt and
the sovereign debt crashes by two or
three billion I'm technically insolvent
it creates a banking crisis or a
financial
crisis it gets worse than this right Tom
that that's the good news those are
strong countries great the bad news is
like s Lanka
Argentina turkey now are those the same
thing just played out on a longer
timeline no those are examples where the
government's printing even more money so
for example the cost in Turkish L are up
120% over 12 months so the Turkish L is
crashing more than 50% against the
dollar the Argentine peso is crashing
and Sri
Lanka Sri Lanka crashed the entire
economy and the government how' they do
it well first they uh they made it
illegal to use fertilizer to grow crops
and they kind of crushed the the farming
business then they um they printed too
much money under a modern monetary
theory that they could just print money
so they crashed their currency then they
couldn't afford to buy fuel they
couldn't buy energy or gasoline so then
they actually regulated the use of
gasoline by saying that private citizens
couldn't actually buy
gasoline then the people rioted and they
toppled the government because if you're
going to starve me to death and freeze
me to death and then lock
me and and deprive me of my car right
you you pretty much like ripped me back
to the Stone Age right you're gonna
freeze to death walk everywhere and
there's no food to
eat why because excessive government
intervention right the these G policies
that are totally irrational so you can
have irrational policies if you're rich
let's go let's go into ESG because this
is actually super controversial yeah but
very interesting so for somebody that
doesn't know what an ESG policy is what
is
ESG it's when I decide that um that say
nuclear power is bad but solar power is
good but natural gas is
bad but wind power is good when when you
start to decide and dictate how people
will generate
energy right and and or or when I decide
you can't use fertilizer in order to
grow food was that also a green decision
yeah because fertilizers have phos
phosphates in them and they decide the
phosphates are bad for the water and so
they want people to not use them so as
the as the government starts to
implement policies about how you will or
will not produce food how you will or
will not produce energy or
heat what happens is ultimately they
drive up the price of food right if you
don't use fertilizer then your crop
yields get cut in half if your crop
yields get cut in half food price
doubles if you're not allowed to use
gasoline and you have to use a you know
electric powered car the cost of the car
doubles crop prices the food price
doubles again now it's 4X as much if I
if I double the money supply by printing
a bunch of money to give to someone to
pursue some aim that I agree with now
the price doubles again so I've
increased the price of everything by a
factor of eight how dangerous do you
think this moment is for the
US it's pretty
dangerous we're the richest company
country in the world though so the US
the US um has the world's Reserve
currency so if you think about the way
the economy Works 24 months ago
um the uh the the countries like China
sorry countries like Russia and the like
exported a trillion dollars worth of raw
materials like uh energy and metals and
the like and then countries like China
export a trillion dollars worth of
products and
services and we pay for them by sending
back two trillion dollar worth of
dollars so what we do is we export two
trillion worth of inflation and they
export two trillion worth of products
and services and
energy because we run the banking system
of the world right the banking Network
plus the US Dollars the world Reserve
currency really fast I need to ask
because I don't understand so when we
send them the two trillion we are
creating that money in order to make
those purchases yeah so we're not just
taking money that we've already
saved let's say there's $50 trillion
dollar circulating around the world and
we just print two trillion more now
there's 52 trillion we've inflated uh
We've inflated the currency Supply by 4%
we've devalued everything by 4% and
we've traded $2 trillion dollar worth of
US Dollars for2 trillion doll worth of
coal or oil or products or iPhones or
labor or something
right and and that's the way it works
right and and the reason it works that
what what is the real export the US
provides Financial Economic
Security like for example if you live in
Mexico or you live in Argentina and
you've got a million dollars are you
going to save it in the peso you're G to
save it in the dollar right how are you
going to save your money if you um if
you export uh a hundred billion dollars
of oil from the Middle East and we give
you back a hundred billion dollar in
dollars what are you going to do with1
billion
dollar you buy it bills with it so you
buy sovereign debt that yields 2%
interest and so now if you hold a
hundred billion dollar worth of
sovereign debt now if I double the money
supply it's worth half that much right
so so in
essence if I'm increasing the the supply
of dollars by 7% a year and if you're
holding a hundred billion dollar of my
debt then you're paying s billion dollar
a year to hold the debt so I'm charging
you7
billion for the privilege of giving you
a bank to put your hundred billion doll
in it's a negative interest rate right
negative real yield if you if you do it
10 years in a row I take $70 billion
from you whoa but the question is what
else are you going to do you going to
put in
Gold if you have a billion dollar what
are you going to put it in well the
Russians put it in Gold we just seize
the gold you're going to buy yacht with
it we might take the yacht you're gonna
buy land with it who's land land in
another country I already own all the
land in my own country right so so
um the US primary export is
inflation that's what we do and it's a
good it's a good situation right where
we're running the banking system and
we're printing more money that our
primary export is
monetary call it monetary technology in
the form of the US dollar it's the most
desired instrument and what we trade for
it is uh is we get energy or we get
products or services in return for
exporting the
dollar right right now we're on this
cusp
because we're exporting too many
dollars and uh and that c causes the
collapse of other countries currencies
and when their currencies collapse their
governments collapse so the US the US
won't collapse the the first countries
to collapse will be
Zimbabwe
Lebanon Syria right Iraq Iran right not
any country not Iran but but Afghanistan
Iraq South America all throughout
you know they they're they're all being
destabilized Sri Lanka so what you have
is you have this Rippling wave of
destabilizations in the developing world
you have a
weakening in the developed world as
their currencies weaken they're going to
suffer from inflation if we have
inflation that's 8% in the US dollar and
if the
Japanese Yen weakens 24% against the US
dollar in one one year and if the
Japanese have to buy oil priced in
dollars what's their inflation rate
going to be now right now the government
the official figures will tell you it's
low but and uh you can do that as long
as you as long as you define the metric
but there's only so long you can do it
at the point where nobody can actually
afford to buy gasoline or buy energy and
their cars don't
run and they can't Heat their home right
then you C you can no longer uh persuade
the public that there is no inflation
problem then you have a problem and now
the question is how you going to deal
with
it and of course there's how does the
government deal with it uh first they'll
persuade you that they won't count this
in an they won't include have you ever
heard the phrase a core inflation
doesn't include the highly volatile food
and
energy I haven't know but that sound
there's actually an inflation measure
core inflation that does not include
food and energy so first I'll try to
persuade you not to actually pay
attention to the cost of food and
energy but uh at some point I'll accept
it but I will I'll pick a different
measure of food and energy I'm not going
to measure the cost of a steak I'm going
to measure the cost of a soybean
burger right I'm I'm going to measure
the cost of of manufactured you know
know agricultural grain products that
are cheaper I'm not going to measure the
cost of of some organic vegetable that's
more expensive so you'll see a
distortion of that and then at some
point you see a normalization of
behavior like there's the old world
economic Forum meme you know you'll own
nothing and you'll be happy it's like
well I've decided that eating meat is
bad for me like so first you can't
afford it now you now it's bad for you
to eat it
so I'm not really upset that I can't
afford it because it was bad anyway or
um you know if you're a patriot you're
not going to actually cool your home
below 80 degrees in the summer and
you're not going to heat your house you
remember during the energy crisis you
don't remember this in the 70s right it
was your patriotic duty to turn the
thermostat down in the winter and turn
the thermostat up in the summer so this
happens in Wars too right in a war it
becomes your patriotic Duty to do
without right to R in a war in a war I I
get it you know obviously assuming that
it's a Justified War but I would like to
go back to this idea of um the
government basically not getting you to
look at the um well one I want to tie
this back to we started this because we
were talking about the the green
mandates having a knock on effect that
people aren't paying attention to so you
put these Draconian rules in for energy
production the one that's always
confused me again is like a total
Outsider but uh not doing nuclear energy
just seems crazy so that we can get
energy self-sufficient that seems to tie
into this idea of a globalized economy
which I think we're seeing the risks of
that play out now certainly with Russia
and the Ukraine I think that it could
potentially play out uh just as
disruptively with China but so you've
got this belief in globalization so now
I uh I believe ah I can get my energy
from Russia or from wherever and so
we're going to be fine we don't need to
do these you know Ultra high-risk
nuclear things but you start so you
start putting in these is ESG what
what's the
initials environmental social and
governance okay so you've got the ESG
rules uh forcing people to do things a
certain way which don't necessarily have
all the economic consequences that we
would like very negative okay now as
inflation starts to happen we've got the
government saying well don't look at
food and electricity which seem like the
two things you're going to interface
with
constantly
uh how do we like what is the path out
of that like that
seems really high risk in terms
of negative impact on uh the the
individual person really beginning to to
struggle they're going to start asking
why am I being asked to give up all this
and then if you don't have a really good
justification then they're going to
Rebel which gives the government an
incentive to come up with a really good
justification which makes me
nervous well the problem is too much
government and uh and the and the most
dysfunctional societies are the ones
that have have the strongest most
pervasive governments because they're
the ones that can actually take the
economic decisions to the
economy completely and not no checks and
balances so the I mean the impact and
the damage of the lockdowns was much
worse in Canada in Australia and New
Zealand because they had strong
centralized governments and it was
weaker than in the us because we had
state governments if it wasn't for
Florida and Texas we might not have ever
reopened our economy right but the fact
that uh that Florida and Texas reopened
and and uh people functioned
became the uh the incentive or Andor the
air cover for New York and California to
reopen so if you're an
individual the solution is you run to
the place with the least government
figure out where that is and you run
away from the place with the most
government because the most
authoritarian government is probably
going to choke you to death uh if you're
if you're politically engaged the answer
is is vote for and Lobby your
politicians for Less
government right uh as long as
politicians think government is the
solution you'll get more of it when they
start thinking that government is the
problem you'll get less of it you know
all of the you know the problem we have
here is we don't have one war we have 12
Wars we have the war on terror we have
the war on misinformation we have the
war on carbon we have the war on culture
we have the war in Ukraine we have the
war fill in the blank on radical Islam
we have the war for democracy there's so
many different Wars and you know a
single terrorist event look at what
happened in 911 two things one we
decided we're going to go to Iraq and we
fought a war in Iraq a country had
nothing to do with
911 and it cost us what a trillion
dollars and how many lives and then we
also uh imped TSA restrictions and
security restrictions and so even to
this day we're now 22 years later you
can't get on an airplane you know
without going through a horrific amount
of security issues and ostensibly all
that Security is to keep you safe in the
airplane but if I wanted to blow up a
bomb I could just walk into the security
line of the airport and blow up the bomb
without going through that and if I if I
really was a terrorist I could just walk
into a church or walk into any
restaurant or any other public gathering
space where there just as many
people and so we didn't really get more
security what we got is is uh more uh
Authority more of a police state and uh
so you each of these
incidences a terrifying thing right uh
becomes an excuse for the government to
to encroach more on
freedom I don't know that it's easy to
actually fix that problem in any given
country right not so easy but on a minor
level right you can campaign for freedom
in your municipality or your county or
your state maybe you can you can um it
does have an impact you can relocate
yourself to a place that's more free
from a place that's less free right I I
I personally wouldn't live in a place
where an official could by edict confine
me to my home as long as they want for
any reason they want without my approval
without a court order you know without a
law right you know if you look at
American history most of the of the
Constitutional fights were presidents
wanted to declare war without an act of
Congress and Congress is supposed to
actually vote on it so if you live in a
society where people can declare war on
anything and everything without even a
debate in the legisl legislative branch
what good is it to elect people that are
actually against that given policy if
they don't even get a say in
it toown control doesn't
work why does top down control not
work because it's the decision of one
individual versus the wisdom of the
marketplace the you know the marketplace
is trying to find it's like the market
New York City as a as a set of 10
million people fig figes out how to run
itself every day and if one person got
up in the morning and decided they were
going to issue orders to all 10 million
people and tell every one of them when
to go to the
bathroom you know like it probably
wouldn't work so well right it's just
it's impossible for uh a centralized
entity to actually make decisions that
are as rational as a decentralized
Marketplace humans though seem to from a
historical perspective continually
gravitate back towards the centralized
top down if you like that clip check out
the full powerful episode here and I'll
see you there the impact and the damage
of the lockdowns was much worse in
Canada and Australia and New Zealand
because they had strong centralized
governments and it was
weaker in the us because we had state
governments