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the big prediction I'm known for is I
think we're going to have a revolution
or Civil War within the next 5 years and
I really think within the next year and
I say these things so you guys know that
I'm a charlatan so I'm actually
falsifiable um if if I wanted to con you
over I'd say a bunch of vague things and
say that when the era of Sagittarius
starts then there will be great Strife
in the land no I I predict we're going
to have a civil war Revolution within
the next five to one years um so the
reason that I say that is that it's
inside the incentive structures of the
uh Elites involved um where if you look
at these historic crises I said this in
a dozen other podcasts is it's not the
majority population that leads to them
there's small groups of radicals that
hijack the process so for the French
Revolution the Jacobin were 3% sorry all
leftists were something like 3% of uh
France's population and the Jacobin the
faction that won were so small that you
could pick out factions in the French
Revolution based off what cafes they
hung out in it was the the unit of
French politics at that time was Cafe
based so very small groups of people
Russian Civil War the bullsh Communists
were like again less than 3% of Russia's
population the Bolsheviks were a
minority of the Communists in turn uh
English Civil War it was commonly said
that the English were so weak as a
people because it had been a century and
a half since England had had a real land
War people said the English had grown
too soft to fight what happened instead
was that the two factions the royalists
and the parliamentarians they would just
draft men and so in our society most
people won't want a war most people just
want to continue with their lives and
then small groups of radicals will seize
power and again something I've said
before is that no one riots for normies
No One pushes for Normie interests
people the radicals organize the normies
don't thus the normies voices get
canceled out and so there's a bunch of
levers I see can't get pushed much
further the debts one where I said
before
um we've doubled the amount of debt
we've had in the last 10 years this is
just this is one of those things where
like the news should be screaming about
this every day but they don't that the
amount of the sheer amount of debt we
have is just never going to get paid
back but we spend more paying off the
interest which is 5% of the debt than we
do the military now how are we going to
pay off the rest of the debt uh so debts
one immigration is another where we had
like 40 million immigrant illegal
immigrants before Biden's at added
around another 10 million we can't push
immigration much further uh economic
issues are another one where Americans
have kept getting poorer where Americans
built up a lot of savings over covid and
now uh like something like two-thirds of
Americans they don't have a $1,000
emergency cost and so Americans have
gradually gotten poorer and poorer as a
demographic and so you're hitting
desperation levels and so just on a
financial basis uh most Americans can't
make it another 5 years and so when you
add up all these things debt Financial
issues uh psychological issues um
immigration neither side is going to
both sides have not respected the last
two elections so there's no chance the
right and the left respects this coming
election where both the conservatives
and the left have said that they do they
will not basically honor the results of
this election where I mean that was
Trump's thing from last election he's
cast doubt on it this election and for
the left there was a a senator who said
that uh who said that if the Trump wins
this election that they'll try to use
the 14th Amendment to get the results
thrown out and so you have all these
triggers that can't really get moved
much further and what happens when you
get in a very hard situation where there
aren't easy answers as you just say
screw it we're going to have a war and
so you end up with this place
where their the leaders involved have an
incentive to defect because past a
certain range if you're a conservative
politician and the left asks for another
budget concession it's your active
incentive for you to uh just start a war
because you have a higher chance of
getting reelected doing so than uh than
you do uh if you cooperate and so all
these wars start when one side asks
concession from the other side that
they're not willing to do that was the
French re the French Revolution the
English Civil War caused by budget
crisis um the American Civil War by an
election dispute um the fall of the
Roman Republic was the assassination of
a of a popular political candidate these
are all examples and so
um the of all those uh I think the most
important one is budget issues where
we're getting to the point where the
average American is economically
desperate enough that if you're in debt
and you're not going to get laid and all
that stuff you you don't have you're
going to roll the dice because if you
roll the dice even if there's a 50%
chance of dying you know you're screwed
in this timeline so might as well roll
the
dice okay so uh here's what I just heard
let me know if I miss anything um you've
got everybody uh in a terrible economic
situation um older people are aware
enough of how things have changed that
they are dissatisfied young people just
don't like their in life uh you've got
the levers that are maxed out there's no
way to go any farther and now the
breaking point is going to be either hey
we're about to lose power and so I'm
better off uh in a situation where I
refuse to acknowledge this uh election
for instance and we tell the people hey
the election's been stolen you need to
stand up and fight for your right and
then people actually do that or uh the
flip side that the concession is asked
for were unwilling to give it and now
somebody actually outright calls for
violence uh yes like that I think it
would be a gradualistic process where no
one could take direct responsibility
because humans hate taking
responsibility um where does the first
shot get fired so let me give you a
couple different scenarios uh the most
likely scenario is an election issue and
I would say budget issue if the
election's not right up and close to us
um and so a scenario I'll give you like
two or three scenarios one scenario is
that there's an election issue and then
um like Philadelphia I'm from
Pennsylvania Philadelphia is an
incredibly corrupt city if the
conservatives said that the Philly
government was stuffing The Ballot Box
they would have complete plausible
deniability whether or not it's true um
and so the conservatives there's an
election issue and I think for both a
budget or election issue the parallel
would come from the American and the
English Civil War where countries tend
to repeat there tend to be genetic
patterns in how genetic or cultural
patterns in how societies have crises uh
where in three different French Court
crises there was a budget issue and then
the Estates General formed an
independent legislature but what I think
would happen in both cases is that um
there would be an issue and then they
would form two different governments and
then you would have the American
people's government based out of
Washington DC or new or Los Angeles then
you would have the American Patriot
government based out of Austin Texas and
so you have two governments that are
claiming to be the one true government
and what that does legally is it removes
any legal rights to hold it removes any
legal right to not do bad things because
if you are the one true government you
have the legal o you have the legal
right hand and what would happen is I
would guess some some minor violence
that spirals out where if a conflict's
like this it's one thing and then it
gets bigger and bigger and bigger it's
like a snowball it's like can we use a
specific example here how does the Texas
border crisis that was a great one uh
and so when I saw that it sunk into my
gut that we would have a war um because
I live in Texas I know lots of people in
the Texas government and uh and so I was
relatively I saw as it happened that was
fascinating and for people in your
audience who don't know and I'm
surprised I've talked to a lot of people
especially Europeans they never knew the
crisis happened it was blocked outside
of America is that um the state of Texas
basically tried to guard to block its
Southern border with Mexico and the
reasoning for because uh on a
constitutional basis the federal
government are the people who
maintain external borders and States
aren't allowed to but the Texans said
because the government's not doing that
we get to step in and so the thing that
really shocked me there is that within a
day 25 States said they milit IL
supported Texas sorry 25 States said
they supported Texas over the federal
government 10 states said they
militarily supported Texas that's a huge
deal within a single day 10 states said
they' use their militaries to fight the
US government and National Guards aren't
a joke the Texas National Guard would be
the fifth it would be in the top five
most powerful militaries in the world it
has air assets it has tanks it has that
stuff and um and so with conflicts like
this what do you think in that would
have happened cuz Biden just backed down
yes so if Biden had pushed the issue is
that the kind of thing you see spiraling
out of control where Texas is like hey
enough is enough because I for people
that don't know Texas was like Hey you
have to stop all these people flooding
in government says no we're not going to
so Texas puts their own barb wire up and
stuff yes the the federal government
comes in and cuts it down I this was not
like a hey uh you know a nice
conversation this was actions were being
taken countermeasures were being taken
to let people into the country I mean
this is like literally crazy to me uh
and so all these states get behind Texas
and Biden's like all right all right
fine but in that moment in this scenario
of how things could go arai had he said
no no no you don't understand that is a
federal border and we will have it run
our way you now have Texas State militia
or uh National Guard facing off against
the US military yes exactly that's
perfect and I can give three historic
examples to show exactly how this kind
of thing would happen uh American Civil
War the southern states uh Lincoln won
the country on an abolish slavery
platform or stop the growth of slavery
platform and then he did he won by not
winning a single Southern State so the
South said because none of our states
voted were going to succeed and then
there was a battle at Fort suer between
federal troops and South Carolina
National Guard that's what started the
US Civil War American Revolution the
British were blockading massachus
for disobeying the British laws and then
the British marched out to uh uh
Massachusetts militia uh a Massachusetts
militia uh to take their gunpowder and
then what happened is that um is that
the the Massachusetts militia fired on
the British conflict starts English
Civil War the uh the English government
tries to force anglicanism as a state
religion on Scotland the Scots are
Presbyterian Scotland's Rebels what
happens is that the English government
tries to get the Monarch tried to get
the uh the Congress or the House of
Commons to uh fund to raise funds to
fight a war against the Scots the
problem is that a majority of the
English Parliament were also like
Presbyterians same as the Scots so they
said we're not going to we're not going
to pay for a war fighting against people
who have the same religion as us that
King of England tried to shut down the
the Parliament and then it went out from
there so this pattern in the
English-speaking world is politically
entrenched issue uh legal dispute and
then from that there's a skirmish the
Skirmish results in like uh the the
match being lit and then the gunpowder
blowing up and for all of these wars the
english- speaking world is never ready
for Wars every single War the English
speaking world had for I don't know
since the Middle Ages the first six
months were dis preparation because no
one was prepared for
and so what would happen is you have
some kind of skirmish let's say between
Pennsylvania New York State National
Guards uh Ohio Texas versus the the
federal military things spiral out from
there then for the first six months
unless I have a wide variation between
the of the war could either be done in
two weeks or it would be a long and
bloody multi-year war um and
so on the um and so what would happen in
in the larger War scenario is that for
the first 6 months both sides conscript
young men they build up their economies
and militaries and then the war happens
but there's no difference between men
and women why would they only conscript
young men Rudyard tell me more I mean we
all really know the answer I mean we we
can play with we can play with the you
can use women in some military roles the
Soviets did it with snipers and uh this
and keep in mind the act of War Fair has
not changed that much since World War II
it's it's it actually GE the I think the
amount of military gear soldiers Carry
has doubled since World War II so if
anything War Warfare has gotten more
physically enduring uh it's using women
for Frontline soldiers is not effective
you can use women for snipers for uh air
air force uh for like some I think for
and for backend roles but no you You'
the point I was trying to make is you
can script young people so the reason I
bring that up obviously somewhat tongue
and cheek is that um the outcome of a
civil war between the left and the right
feels somewhat um scripted in terms of
how the outcome would be uh how do you
think that plays out so I think there's
an 80% chance the right wins um and I
think it could either be the right wins
over the long time or the short time um
and the right is a series of strategic
advantages over the left that I'm
shocked no one in the left notices um so
the right is a single geographically
coherent territory the right if it
became a country would build its capital
in Texas or the middle States and you
could go from central Pennsylvania out
to like the Sierra Nevadas in California
as a single coherent conservative
territory the left is split up in city
states and even on their core
territories in the northeast or the West
Coast Los Angeles is hundreds of miles
from San Francisco 100 miles from the
Pacific Northwest you could the
territory between Washington DC and
Philadelphia in New England it's there's
red territory in between so the left is
stuck between all these city states lots
of them stuck hundreds of miles inside
conservative territory like uh like
Chicago or Minneapolis or Atlanta um and
so the conservative single coherent
territory the military tilts markedly
conservative and the military is the
most defining B uh the most defining
variable for civil wars historically and
parts of the military that tilt the most
conservative are the guys with the guns
and the low-level officers and those are
the people that determine the tilt of
the military historically the police
tilt more conservative gun owners tilt
more conservative conservative areas of
the country produce the electricity and
the food and the oil and the IT
manufacturing um and conservatives also
of a culture that's more masculine and
warlike and hierarchical and if we can
look at leftist and you can see this
isn't indicative of the left's full
power but if you look at Chaz you look
at uh at the Columbia protests what
happens in each case is within 12 hours
the social structure of those places
broke down because they don't they can't
organize people they can't have strict
rules that stuff so 80% of scenarios the
right wins in the more radical scenarios
there's just a military coup like
Indonesia we in Indonesia in the 60s the
Army backs the anti-communist faction
and over night they wiped out the
Indonesian left same things happened in
a bunch of places in history like
Hungary or Nazi Germany or that stuff um
and and um other scenario long-scale War
red in blue States uh end up with
different power blocks different
internal economies the war continues for
years wars tend to be more bloody Than
People predict as a general rule they
tend to be more difficult than people
predict in the scenario the left wins
is because thankfully the US government
the thankfully the US military is loyal
to the law and the Constitution so if
the right is very unhinged and launches
a Revolt where it's clearly not legal
then the left could use a conservative
leaning military to crush the rightest
rebels and then use that as plausible
deniability to uh crack down on the
right okay so that is a very clear
picture of what happens if something is
sparked that's already militaristic in
nature let's walk through the debt
concession one so I think the most
important issue of our time right now in
America for sure by far is the debt yeah
people to your point you don't know how
people aren't screaming about this day
and night I feel the same this seems
crazy to me I cannot believe people look
at that and don't see any problem people
do not understand money printing they
don't know what it means they don't know
money printing is where everybody is
stolen from and only the rich benefit
now I'm rich rich and so when I start
screaming about this somebody really
should start paying attention uh I am
legitimately freaked out that people are
so nonchalant about debt but how does
debt spill into Civil War in the next
five years debt is the dominant
predictor of all this stuff and so
that's why why that's why the David
hacket Fisher Great Wave book is was so
important to me because you can use in I
talked with the three factors before
like inequality and wages uh debt and
inflation are also really good
predictors because what happens here and
I'm going to use the examples of it
happened in all of these it happened in
the Black Death it happened in the the
English Civil War in the French
Revolution is that what happens over
time is that you end up with it's like a
failed marriage and failed countries are
often like failed marriages where now
we've reached the point where let's say
Ryan long the comedian has a really
funny skit about what if America was a
marriage between the right and the left
the marriage is completely dysfunctional
now and so imagine you have a failed
marriage and then because you can't
agree on shared directions you get into
debt where let's say
um because there's no shared sense of
cultural unity and so the right and the
left are unwilling to make concessions
to each other and also there's this
whole thing of um as people get
desperate and as there's lots of as
people get desperate they care more
about their own Survival and less at the
common good so there's more stuff with
people pushing for the government to
bail them out and so an easy example of
this is Corporate corruption where
corporations I I I like to say America's
not a capitalist economy we're a fusion
socialist capitalist economy because
half of America's total economy is
driven off the government and so what
happens when people get desperate is
they use the government to push personal
corruption and all of these desperate
interest groups latch on to the
government in order to get it stuff so
the military funding needs to stay high
the welfare funding needs to stay high
the funding for various corporate
interests to support American interests
need to say high so as Society gets more
desperate people won't sacrific to the
whole and to put off this issue they it
goes the debt becomes this way to put
off all these issues where if you're a
president you're like I can't solve this
issues uh I'm going to just get more and
more debt because we're not in a good
place and uh I'm just going to keep
spreading debt so that I don't have to
worry about this 30 years down the road
it Rems you of a Homer Simpson joke man
I really Homer Simpson said man Homer
tomorrow that guy must be I feel so
sorry for him it's glad I'm not him as
he's binge drinking and that's kind of
where it's at with the debt and so uh
debts a really good predictor because
it's a sign of social desperation and it
just keeps growing and growing and
growing and then P I think a lot of
people they they don't understand why
debt is a problem I hear really smart
people not lamenting about debt so let
me make it really uh tangible for people
okay so it's going to go something like
this and you tell me if you think this
is crazy um you guys we have created
this feminine structure where we're
going to take care of everybody we want
to make sure everybody has our insurance
nobody gets left behind everybody has a
good quality of life get as close to
equal outcome as humanly possible to do
that we're going to need to fund this
the way that we're going to fund it uh
we either have to ask money to uh
Congress basically vote for things we
know they won't do it so what we're
going to do is keep raising the debt
ceiling and the way that we're going to
meet our obligations to the interest on
the debt is through money printing yes
now for anybody that has not yet heard
me talk about the way money printing
works it goes something like this uh you
were putting extra dollars into the
system with no corresponding increase of
things to buy which means everybody's
buying power goes down but I look at my
bank account and if I had $100 in my
bank I still have $100 now the fact that
that $100 can now only buy $75 worth of
stuff I don't really notice that I I
feel it emotionally but I can't explain
it uh logically and so I just keep going
with it then because even though it
isn't a one for one for reasons that are
too complicated to address right now
there's not a one for one if you print
25% of the money supply you will not get
exactly 25% inflation but it is the
exact same phenomena so uh when you
print money you get inflation so we
print money people's buying power goes
down that is inflation though that
sounds counterintuitive so we're
printing money the cost of goods go up
I'm not able to buy as much and now I
start to have a real problem I already
couldn't make my payments I couldn't uh
buy all the groceries I wanted and now
this starts to push me into a period of
desperation and now we're back to you
can't be a weak man you can't not be
paying attention because you're going
hungry you can't put gas in your car you
can't feed your kids can't feed yourself
uh if you're single and so all of a
sudden that malaise is is waiting for uh
a demagogue to come along and tell you
why your life sucks yes you explained
that perfectly yeah you nailed that um
and the thing is it makes sense for the
people involved it makes sense for them
to do it because they don't bear the
costs and people seem to think that a
great irony is that there was huge
welfare payments for Co and that
resulted in massive increases in
inequality the one of the sharpest we've
seen in record in American history
because you have Co you give someone a
check uh to keep them keep them alive
they spend it on Amazon that goes to
Amazon's stock it goes to Jeff bezos's
pocket and so if you inflate money into
the economy it will naturally result in
inequality skyrocketing because the
money will naturally coagulate into the
stock market into uh real EST the reason
real estate's so ridiculously expensive
is the government printed all this money
and people invested it in real estate
because a house is always going to be
there as the currency gets worse you're
still going to have your kitchen sink
you're still going to have the house so
real estate prices are artificially
inflated and that they've nearly doubled
in the last five years um but people
aren't buying houses and it's a
remarkable thing where the real estate
costs have stayed very high for years
because there's all this excess money
that ends up in real estate because it's
one of the best Hedges against inflation
but then it destroys the average cost of
living for normal people because lower
class and Young Americans spend 2third
of their income on rent and so that's
ironically the government to get out of
this sort of Crisis made it vastly worse
because if if you increase rent and
that's 2third of young people's income
you're you're WIP it doesn't matter if
Electronics prices have stayed stable or
like I don't know food's not as bad as
real estate it's the elephant in the
room I have a growing hypothesis about
what's actually happen happening in the
real estate market I think people
misread real estate a little bit let me
lay it out see what you think uh I think
that the reason people put money into
real estate is it is a discip a forced
discipline to pay into a savings account
that will allow you to pay for the
privilege of keeping up with inflation
but the reality is you can't just put
money in a house and expect 40 years
later that that money will be there
matching inflation the reality is to get
the value of your house to go up to
match inflation which only happens
because buying power is going down and
so really it would the right way to look
at the increase in h the cost of housing
or the value of the house you own is
that the purchasing power of the dollar
is going down now you have to constantly
pay into that house to keep up the
maintenance all that stuff property tax
all that so you're actually uh
essentially paying into an insurance
scheme that is your property that says
hey if you keep up all of your payments
of property tax upkeep on the house all
of that that yes it will more or less
match inflation over the long run but
you paid a lot of money for the
privilege and the reason that house
housing prices are staying so high is a
combination of people still believe that
a great place to put your money is into
real estate and black rock is just
buying up all these single family homes
ironically by aggregating the money of
people who are putting their money with
black rock yes and so people feel
there's this Con search for the other
who are all these people that are doing
all of this evil [ __ ] it's you boys and
girls spoiler alert Scooby-Doo peel the
mask off it's you like if you own money
or you have your money with black rock
they're investing that money into
snatching up the houses so it isn't just
black rock that is benefiting from this
it's anybody that has money with black
rock yes so it is a very weird system
and yes there really are a Le and yes
the game really is rigged against you
and all of that but it's rigged in ways
that people don't fully understand and
because of that they lash out at the
wrong people and remind me of the cats
that you were talking about at the
beginning and they start lashing out at
the wrong people it's crazy I'm glad you
said that that's one of my least
favorite things because whenever I talk
about these macro demographic economic
crises people say it's the left it's
women it's the Jews it's the globalists
it's the lizard men and uh you lost me
at the lizard men there are people who
believe that like literally believe they
are lizard men I think like one or two%
of the population actually thinks it's
keep in mind like I'm officially
terrified no yeah I think they they've
done studies on this a couple percentage
of the population actually think lizard
men run Society um keep in mind average
IQ half the population's beneath that um
yeah and so yeah I mean people like to
blame someone uh because that's an easy
answer um
and the thing with um the reason Black
Rock has such a huge amount of money and
black rock pushes its social agenda in a
variety of ways whether ESG scores the
stock market is because of the
government money printing because the
government money printing if you if
because at this point a majority of our
currency is false in a healthy economy
currency should be representative of
actual physical things like this mug uh
but no in a false economy it's
reflective of uh what the government
prints and the problem you run into past
a certain point and this is the issue of
our entire Society
is that when the when the currency
becomes a reflection of the government
stuff goes to political buddies and so
that's what's going on in our society
where Black Rock has the ESG score which
is based around various leftist social
issues and so the reason that there's
all this leftist uh culture today and
the reason why it keep in mind for a
company like Disney uh some minuscule
amount of their Market cares about
leftist issues uh because keep in mind
they make most of their money outside
America and in America they woke people
are 10% of the population in Indonesia
and China it's none and so the reason
they're doing that is because the
economy is mostly artificial and thus
you get good things in an artificial
economy by playing to the people who are
giving you the artificial money and it's
also why there's this this advertising
scheme where it can it's 90% of
advertisers and it's constructed around
not working with conservatives because
um and that's insane when you hear it
because when the money is artificial the
economy becomes a pandering to the
people making the fake money but that's
not sustainable in any way shape or
form yeah I want to go back to something
that you said about the money should be
something physical like the cup I will
try to make this as like deadly simple
as I can to see um to test my own
knowledge and see if it can be useful to
people yeah uh it doesn't need to be
tied to physical Goods agreed however if
you create a physical good and put money
into the system that's how you keep the
imbalance from of printing money from
getting out of hand okay set that
aside I believe that people have a moral
right the kind of moral right that
should be protected in the Constitution
that says you should have a store of
value that you can use that cannot be
inflated yeah Now spoiler alert I am
into crypto I refuse to be labeled a
crypto bro that is not at all my Viber
thinking but I do believe in crypto in
the sense that Bitcoin cannot be
inflated now what I like about Bitcoin
even though I fully recognize that part
of why people love it right now is its
volatility that's what people like once
you understand that people like the
volatility it becomes less confusing but
set that aside for a second it is a
thing that right now has cultural energy
people believe it has value because they
believe it has value and cannot be
inflated you can actually store your
money there now when I see the
government attack that I get very upset
yes because what they are doing is
making it impossible for people to
escape the system where your money can
be taken from you your purchasing power
can be taken from you by printing
without needing to talk to Congress or
get the vote that that is immoral to me
and I believe that we have to have
something where somebody can work their
whole life save 10% of their salary day
after day week after week month after
month year after year and when they
retire the same purchasing power that
was there when they saved is there when
they retire yes yes agreed the great
irony is that when you look at the
things the elite says they're doing now
it's remarkable I frequently look at the
things the world economic forum and
that's not a powerful organization in of
itself but it's representative of very
powerful people and it's a Weather Vein
and I'm like why would you say this
stuff if I was a mastermind trying to do
all this stuff I would put up this front
and this facade of just being completely
cuddly and completely undang why would
you say you will own nothing and be
happy why would you say you're going to
live in a pod and eat bugs and I think
it's just that they're that socially
detached from the mainstream um that
they don't realize how it comes across
but I mean they have advertising people
worth millions of dollars who should
know that uh but they don't but I mean
so you look at this is most ounc in
Europe and China where the attempt to
get rid of a physical currency where uh
Europe a lot of North European countries
they they've had negative interest rates
for years and for people who don't know
economics what that means is that the
government basically takes money out of
your pocket while if you hold it in
assets and it's it comes from this
economic philosophy called keynesianism
that you should just spend all the time
to stimulate the economy and I don't
want this to turn into a canes versus
hyek debate but what what they're doing
is the creation of a complete artificial
currency negative interest rates this is
about the establishment of a permanent
surf class um because you're not
supposed if you can't build up your
assets it means you can't own stuff on a
social basis you have to work in a big
company or for one of the government's
cronies you can't own your house you
have to rent the the 20 years ago it was
rare to rent a service now every single
service is rentable I bought Photoshop
before it moved on to a renting system
explicitly so I wouldn't have to rent
Photoshop um and Adobe Adobe Premiere um
and so yeah it's it's the attempt to
gradually turn the population to be
completely survi economically uh and
it's gone furthest and they don't use
physical currency in China in China
every single interaction and I've been
there I've seen this is done with your
phone and the wallet the problem though
is the Chinese government can say you
posted a Winnie the Poo me a Winnie the
Poo meme your social credit score is too
low you can't go to restaurants anymore
that's what happens when you move to a
completely artificial deflationary
currency where I mean the freezing of
bank accounts is something that
terrifies me where uh in Canada and I
I'm a Canadian citizen I've lived there
they froze the bank accounts of the
truckers and that was completely what
the things the truckers did were
completely legal and their Canadian
Canadian rules and so if you can freeze
someone's bank account you completely
control them and the public are just I
can't believe this isn't an issue of
Greater discussion bro yeah it gave me
heart palpitations yeah I can't believe
it's insane let me ask because the the
thing on all of this that I think is
problematic is people don't understand
where this goes and it seems like even
the people that are in the um economic
driver seat don't seem to understand yes
so I know that you know some people the
fed and you ask a question about what
they knew about Spanish uh Financial
history so tell me that story walk the
audience through what we should learn
from that I've lived a bizarre life that
I can't really explain but I I've seen a
lot of things in that life and so I have
a couple different Avenues to look into
what the the elite believes and I have
two friends that used to work at the fed
and I asked them this question
uh do you know about Spain's
hyperinflation in the 17th century
because Spain did something that's
pretty comparable to what we're doing
where Spain had all this silver from uh
Mexico and South America the Spanish
hyperinflated their currency and this
killed the economy of Mediterranean
Europe it's why Italy stopping the
richest place in the world um and and no
one at the f I I asked two of my friends
you worked at the FED does anyone at the
FED know about this economic crisis and
they said no one and that was horrifying
because
these people are paid very significant
amounts of money to know about the
economy this this should be their job
and the 17th century from a historian's
perspective is recent it's called modern
and so if they don't know about the 17th
century at all it means they're just
making stuff up and they have no it
means they can only and this is a
strange story where I I spoke to this I
was speaking to this lady she's um she's
very wealthy she's worth tens of
millions of dollars she's like 27 years
old and so we had a conversation where
uh she said is investing in real estate
a good idea and I said I think the price
of real estate will crash o over the
course of your life by the time you're
60 the price of real estate will be much
lower than today due to population
Decline and she said you're a historian
you should look at history and see that
real estates kept rising over the 20th
century and I said you can't just like
that's just the last lifetime history is
so much longer but it's lots of very
topic stuff like that and from what I've
gathered about uh the elite the
impression I get is that they train
themselves into ignorance they train
themselves into not seeing obvious
things because it's against their
self-interest to see obvious things and
so it's this hyper fixation on whatever
topic they study and they use that to do
evil things where if you're just in
economics if if you just study economics
you can ignore the historical patterns
you can ignore how what you do affect
fects real people you can ignore what
the social consequences of it are how it
affects your Society because you're just
focused on that one
thing okay um there's a lot of economic
corruption going on right now what what
is the end game that they think they
will achieve if the end game is that it
all blows up and it leads to war because
moneyy printing you just can't do it
forever um what what is the endgame they
think they reach
uh I don't know man these people their
conception of the universe is not mine
and it's funny that like we grew up in
the same time period we probably read
the we supposedly went to the same
education system through a certain point
where um I think they've removed anyone
who can see the big picture and so
they're looking at like you know that
the meme that goes line go up World's
gooder I don't but that uh I follow yeah
it's a parody of it's and one of my
friends has got a term called Pinker ISM
and Pinker ISM and I don't dislike I
think Stephen Pinker is a wonderful
thinker I think he's done a lot of um I
think I agree with every single book
He's written uh he's not my vibe though
but I do respect him um but what Stephen
Pinker does is he says because there are
more toilets in Africa the world's a
better place and then you ignore the
collapsing quality of life in America or
the deaths of Despair because worldline
progress go up I was speaking to a
friend uh where I was was telling her
about my worldview was informed by
de-industrialization because I'm from
the Rust Belt and my entire area got
screwed over and the thing that really
got to me was uh was like it was just
abandoned streets and philli got a
smaller population today than it did in
1950 and what the elite said the whole
time was uh we are going to teach people
coding jobs we'll find some way to not
to uh fix this don't worry about it and
those were all complete lies uh and then
I I was speaking to a friend and what
she told me is the way the elite sees
this is that you you supporting your
area self-interest against progress is
selfish you have to sacrifice your own
well-being for Progress so your idea
that you deserve to have a real currency
your idea that you deserve to have a
house this is selfish because line go up
equal progress and so they see the line
go up and they think if we can just push
further we'll get progress and what is
the line though what line total it's
total GDP there's a fascinating book
called the growth delusion by David
pilling and it's a look at how GDP stats
uh mess with how people re deal with the
world so for example the reason the
healthcare industry in America is a huge
tapeworm it just consumes this massive
part of our economy for very little
benefit if you look at like in if you
look at a bunch of other countries um
it's a more efficient economics we spend
like four times as much on Healthcare
per person as France does does for
significantly worse service in a variety
of ways um and so the reason that's not
a political issue is because the more
money you spend in healthcare the bigger
the total GDP stat is Kenya has an
economy so Kenya has an economy six
times its size in fact compared to its
GDP stats because the way GDP stats are
measured Kenya is measured at one six
its real size and so what they're
looking at and so I could tell even as a
teenager I could tell when I was 16 or
15 that quality of life had gotten worse
since the 70s because I talked to my
parents and I would watch older movies
and it was obvious from older movies and
my parents that average life had gotten
worse but if you brought that up people
would immediately jump down your throat
and it wasn't even a discussion uh and
it's because total GDP number went up
and if total GDP goes up even if that's
mostly inflation uh then you're winning
it's this very warped tunnel vision
under understanding of the
world okay so um how much do you think
of what is happening right now is just
in inescapable biological cycles and how
much of this is bad ideology that if we
could replace the ideology we could move
in a better Direction Whoa man
everything is itself and yet nothing all
things are connected man um am I going
to need to hit on the bong for the this
answer yeah so it's hard to disentangle
things I think uh because okay I'm not
going to give you the philosopher answer
um a lot of its natural cycle a lot of
it's our own stupidity and they're
they're they're mixing together so let's
say imagine you had an infinitely
wealthy Society in an infinitely wealthy
Society people could allow to become
infinitely stupid and so it is this
Duality um and I think
it's it's a combination of them uh but
something that I'm going to find very
fascinating when I'm older is comparing
how different societies have faced this
demographic issue and people like to do
stuff like let's say blame the left or
blame Jews and I'm like you can trace a
lot of this stuff in China and so if a
lot of these same Trends are happening
in China it's not the jews' fault um and
that's really interesting I've not heard
anybody say that before I invented the
idea yeah um
where because China you have feminism
birth rate in China is worse than
America's which is strange because
poorer countries tend to have higher
birth rates uh China has uh the Chinese
government deals with this in the
funniest way possible I sorry if you are
Chinese I am terribly sorry you have to
live through an orwellian dystopia for
me 6,000 miles away I can chuckle at it
um but in China and this is again
something we need to talk about as a
society but we don't uh the government
is going full authoritarian and so I can
see this as the parallel between the
Western world and the Eastern world
where in the west the government enables
it well in China they go against it
where uh for example they've planned
they've banned playing video games for
too long in China they've banned women
wearing bikinis or like porn or like
even cleavage in movies because they
they don't want men to uh they don't
want men they want to force men to like
get married and like go out with women
in order to to see boobs and so a really
funny thing
uh is
that so because women can't wear bikinis
in China they have men wear bikinis to
model the underwear what I'm sorry yes
exactly so the Chinese government
doesn't let women wear bikinis publicly
so they have men wear them instead uh
and the Chinese government also has
banned
homosexuality so what you're looking at
China versus America the Western World
the government enables the mouse Utopia
in China the government actively pushes
against it us
authoritarianism and um and so you can
see the cultural manifestations of the
same underlying Trend where everything I
talk about the psychological Black Death
uh the um psychological Black Death
demographic crisis inequality it's
happening at the same time in both China
and America but it's taking wildly it's
taking you see the same underlying
economic Trend manifest wildly
differently in a different civilization
because the context is so different um
and so in America it's right versus left
I think China's going to have a civil
war too I think for them it'll be uh
basically communist Countryside versus
uh capitalist cities where the right
versus the left is weird in China where
uh their hard Marxist left are the
social conservatives and the capitalists
are the socially liberal people so it is
to answer your question it is an
economic thing but it's also it
manifests differently based off the
ruling class and culture why would it be
happening at the same time in the west
and in China these Cycles sink up so um
the last time the last Verge time this
cycle hit was uh mid 19th century and so
Central Europe had the Revolutions of
1848 and then France had the typing
Rebellion
1853 both of which are the typing
Rebellion is the third bloodiest war in
history in the 1600s in the year
1645 every major country on Earth was
fighting both an internal Civil War and
an external War at the same time you
have a couple that had it before or
after in the year
1348 uh the entire world was having a
Civil War and the black death um and
then you can go back even further where
the Chinese Empire the Han Dynasty fell
at the same time as the Roman Empire
around 200 ad um around 900 ad the abis
and cfit in the Middle East the Frankish
Empire and uh the tong dynasty in China
all fell at the same times these Cycles
are linked historically and the more
interconnected the world is the more the
Cycles are linked and so um and so what
we would what we're seeing now is
roughly approximate social issues around
the world and I I've seen this living
I've lived I lived as a digital Nomad
for a few years so in France there were
the the the the yellow vest riots were
happening so I'd see explosions in the
streets in Peru the Communist Party had
just been elected there um in uh in
Canada they have their issues America
has issues China right after I went
there it became authoritarian um and
they shut down people from the West
India is having its nationalism Russia
is having a war with Ukraine uh the
European Union having is having its
crisis Brazil Brazil's getting really
ugly and so this is a normal historic
thing where different of the world uh
often experience their own crises at the
same time as other crises as we look
back on this moment between the US and
China what response to what's happening
now are we going to look back and say
that was the right way to play that man
I don't know if I had a good answer
uh I don't think anyone's got a good
answer so for the US and China uh I
you're talking if China attacks Taiwan
right I I'm just saying more they're
both confronted with the
youatt
and the left and the right the left is
compassion the right is personal
responsibility I think those are um
given to us by Evolution I think for a
society you need the dynamic tension
between the two uh but we've got this
wild uh imbalance due to the left taking
over all the institutions and pumping
out kids that just tend to lean left uh
but they're now bumping up against
reality so that's what I feel going on
inica
and uh theoretically we're what we're
trying is do we reduce freedoms but
within our system you see a cultural
giving up on things like freedom of
speech uh so that's how things are going
here campus protest things like that
over in China you've got uh massive
authoritarian Crackdown you've got the
weager and concentration camps but the
play there being hey we need value
homogeny so we need everybody to see the
world the same way um you've also got
the credit score so we're going to
gamify which you you'll hear me talk
about all the time gamification is
amazing and as I build out my virtual
world I think a lot about how do I avoid
a Chinese dystopia yeah but you've got
them using credit score visibility into
everything you do the zero covid
lockdowns like I mean just really
stamping down on it but even though you
have to give up your individual rights
will that end up being the right place
so let me um go one step further so
there's one more thing just for the
audience I want them to hear
uh China is passing all of these um
educational reforms is probably the
right way to think about it trying to
make sure that men are more masculine
which is why I was so like they're
having the men wear bikinis that's
Chinese media yeah I culture so you've
got uh we only want kids being taught by
uh we want kids focusing on physical
education we want physical education
only being taught by former athletes we
want people looking up to masculine men
like we don't want them to become a
feminized Okay so those are the the two
different things happening right now yes
and will either of those be a winning
solution or is going to be something
else entirely they're both going to fail
I mean you can't force people to do
stuff where uh often times your
intentions when you do something or how
you do it is more important than the
thing itself and so I think the Chinese
the Chinese are realizing a lot of the
mouse Utopia stuff but when you force
someone to do something it's going to
backfire like if you have telling people
they can only play video games for they
can't play video games for longer than
an hour a day is just going to make them
resent you and it's going to completely
backfire if the Chinese Force this on
the CH if the Chinese government forces
this upon their youth their youth will
just learn to hate those values and this
is one of the things we've seen with the
the left today where the left pushes
things that are by all accounts pretty
good like uh racial tolerance sexual
tolerance whatever but they push it in
such a hamfisted way that it creates the
opposite reaction of a resentful right
um and so that's what I would see
happening in the lefts and I think no
government today has the mental
capability to understand what's
happening because if they did we
wouldn't have the crisis and I find that
for these historic crises the worst
thing that happens to