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we do have to make a societal change
what do you guys think about that and if
you agree what is that path I just say
again I just think I just think we're
using the wrong framing we have I mean
the 76 million people in the United
States who are over 70 years old
now right you've got a demographic cliff
in front of your
face it's happening in Europe what South
Korea got to a point
0.7 replacement rate right now right
we've got a population collapse coming
maybe those young kids are deading right
they should not be doing any of this
stuff because it's all
worthless maybe you're wrong maybe they
can see what the future is for them
which is they're going to be replaced
pretty
quick the reason you don't want to hire
these people is you don't need to that's
the dirty truth here and we'll need to
hire less of them
what is happening is a much larger
disruption but it's not in the way of
the past it's always so easy to say the
past is going to repeat sure but in
different ways there is whole
revolutions happening in front of us
that are going to shape Society in ways
we can't yet understand and we're
looking back saying well maybe the
dollar gets trashed it's like oh my God
can't you see what's in front of us now
I'm an optimist I think there's a path
that we figure it out but I don't think
it's going to be without volatility but
it's going to be driven by that and not
that that is known and that is AI
robotics that forward is AI robotics
longevity you know so many structural
changes cracking the entire Human Genome
and figuring out Med so much to deal
with that is well we spent too much
money we're debating the dollar we're
going to have a hyperinflation it's like
yeah tell me something we don't know
tell me something we don't understand we
don't understand that that's scarier now
it could also be great it could be
amazing a world of
opportunity but my God it's not going to
be a straightforward course right it's
just not well first of all you know
unfortunately I think inflation is the
answer I mean it's not the correct
answer it's not the solution and can you
sorry Peter just check something can you
inflation versus debasement are they the
same things to you Pi versus no I'm
not I'm trying to make a point that he
said inflation was the well he didn't
think inflation was the answer I'm
saying it's it is the answer it's the
wrong answer it's not a solution
unfortunately it's the politically
expedient choice because the right
choice is too difficult for politicians
to make because politicians their
primary goal is their own reelection and
so that's how they see every problem is
how do I get reelected and so they're
not trying to make things better for the
country they're trying to perpetuate
their careers which are often at odds
with what's right for the country so
we're going to get stuck with
inflation uh no matter what now can we
get an offset to that by a burst of
productivity which without the inflation
would just be even better right because
the the free market is trying to lower
prices by increasing productivity the
government is raising them by creating
inflation and so it's a it's a a dance
uh but to the extent that we can have a
a huge surge in productivity that's
driven by by AI or robotics or a
combination of the two that's actually a
good thing um you know it that's not
what you'd be afraid about when it comes
to AI I mean if you're going to be
afraid about something the fear is that
AI decides to kill us all and it could
actually do it right that's the supposed
fear not that it takes away our jobs we
we don't want these jobs we want Compu
Compu to take away our jobs that's great
then we don't have to do them we still
get the stuff without having to do the
work I mean every advancement has you
know reduced the need for human labor I
mean if you go back to the beginning of
society everybody had a job it was
looking for food all day long that's
what you did right you had no leisure
you had nothing because you worked every
minute of every day it's other than when
you slept uh but as we in invented
things and tools we didn't have to work
as much and so we had more Leisure
ultimately if we can replace all human
labor with machines we're all going to
have a lot more Leisure and we're all
going to have a lot more stuff are we
going to have a system of money because
money is like expenditure of energy
whether it's human brainpower whatever
and in exchange for money right right
and ultimately in a in an Ideal World
with complete abundance of everything
that we won't even need money if I could
just push a button and have everything I
need need and I wouldn't have to pay for
it because it just gets conjured into
existence by some super intelligence
right I don't need money anymore money
just facilitates trade somebody has
something I need or I want how do I get
it well I got to give them something
that they need or they want but rather
than barter uh we we we we exchange a
mutually but if we're not bartering if
we're not bartering our own Services
intelligence physical labor how do we
earn money well how are we going to earn
money in the future we may not need
that's my point uh but obviously between
here and there people have to find how
did somebody who got put out of business
you know with a shovel you know a guy
that was digging a ditch and now
somebody invents a shovel and so we
don't need as many ditch diggers so what
did that guy do he he did something um
um and so people are going to have their
jobs replaced by computers or robots and
they're going to do something else you
know instead what I don't know what I
don't know all these things like what
they're going to do but the problem
might be if the government says hey you
lost your job so just go on welfare and
here's a check because you know you
that's that's a big problem if that's
what happens and then people end up
getting entrenched you know in that
state of dependency where they don't go
out and find something else to do
because they just you know stick with
the government check and that check is
you know is is offsetting the benefits
of productivity because the government
prints money to pay somebody to do
nothing um so it's it's the government
that would make the mistakes it wouldn't
be the free market innovating it would
be the government uh inflating and and
getting in the way looking
forward we're in a big year
2024 election year obviously the having
cycle the debt re um structuring all
happens in the same year what do you
guys think the world looks like with a
Biden Victory what does it look like
with a trump Victory no different in in
in Market terms no different you don't
think the market will have a response at
all to one or the other won't give a
it's really driven by liquidity and
flows you know it's going to be they're
all doing the same game so no I don't
think it makes a a single bit of
difference I've not seen an election
that has turned markets because shock
somebody's come in Donald Trump huge
shock what did the market do sell off
for exactly one
evening brexit huge shock what did the
market do sell off yeah it just doesn't
matter politics don't matter in the
short run but obviously they can change
the structure of economies in the long
run but the market doesn't seem to
concern itself with that when liquidity
seems to be the dominant factor that
drives markets and that's driven by
central banks do you think they're still
going to um be printing their way out of
problems there is no choice either one
there is no choice what are you going to
do you're going to bankrupt all the Baby
Boomers blow up all the banking system
because for what
Justice I the right answer is to blow it
all up nobody's going to do that it's
Insanity they will never do that so they
will do absolutely everything within
their power to try and not let that
happen and that it goes back to what
we've all been talking about is however
you define inflation I don't think it's
CPI inflation it's asset price inflation
via debasement is the game Financial
repression let's call it that that is
the game and they will do that now Pizza
may be right maybe it ends up in
hyperinflation I put a very probity
that's the worst case scenario I don't
know that that's where we're going I me
no and again I would say that's the
worst case scenario and possible I don't
know what probability but yeah but yeah
that's what they're doing they'll keep
doing repression why not but in answer
you know it's it's not going to change
the game I mean Trump's been president
before I mean he didn't change the game
then he he he ran up the debt when he
was president I think on the margin you
know it's it's it's worse to reelect
Biden than to put Trump back in office
but I don't think that Trump is going to
you know change what's going to happen
we're going to have a currency crisis
we're going to have a sovereign debt
crisis you know whether Trump or Biden
is in office whether it happens during
that four-year term again I don't know I
mean maybe they kicked a can down the
road and it happens you know on the
watch of whoever replaces them because
whoever wins we know one thing they
can't run again right you only get to
run twice so if whoever wins is not
going to be president in
2026 um so maybe they get out of Dodge
and maybe they don't um but I I I would
think that assuming we had the collapse
during the term of whoever wins right we
have a a crisis I would just assume have
Trump there than Biden you know Trump
has a greater probability of doing the
right thing than Biden Biden maybe has
no chance of doing the right right thing
and Trump maybe has a slim chance so
slim is better than none and doing the
right thing in this case would be
spending less at the government level
well dramatic cut right they have to do
the opposite of every political Instinct
because what they want to do when
there's a the economy is weak they want
to try to stimulate it with more
government they want to run bigger
deficits they want to cut taxes they
want to print money they have to do the
opposite they have to shrink government
cut spending they may even have to raise
taxes I'd rather them just do it all
from from the spending side but they got
to cut spending they got to let interest
rates go up they got to let Banks fail
they got to let companies go bankrupt
they got to let people lose money they
got to allow a lot of painful things to
happen to have a real recovery that that
that is on the other side so do you
think is that is that what they should
do do you think yeah of course they have
to do the right thing it's like if you
have a drug habit stop taking drugs you
know yeah it's not going to be good
you're going to be and withdrawal for a
while but you got to get the stuff out
of your system you got to be healthy we
can't keep drugging ourselves up and
then we die of an overdose that that's
where you know that's that's what
hyperinflation is it's the equivalent of
a monetary overdose you destroy the
currency and then you destroy the
economy uh and so I want to avoid that I
want to all I we need to restructure the
economy on a in a sustainable path it's
not on that now it's it's it's it's a
house of cars
I don't want to I don't want to keep the
house of cards going knowing eventually
it's going to collapse even worse I want
to let it collapse now so we can start
replacing it with with a structural that
sound a real house you know not not a
phony one so we've heard clearly what
you want to
happen what will happen what do you
think they're they're going to keep on
printing until the dollar uh collapses
now the question is when the dooll stop
there a sec so they're going to keep on
printing so given that
information what would you do investing
I'm doing exactly what I'm doing now
it's like I'm I you know but I'm hoping
that they stop de presses at some point
when it gets bad enough uh that they you
know because once it's so bad then all
of your assets go down right see once
it's let me finish this point once it's
so bad that everybody in power knows
they're gone hey there's no way I'm
getting reelected with the econ me this
bad that maybe they'll do the right
thing because they they've run out of
options right they they'll they'll do
the right thing only after they've
exhausted all the other possibilities so
they we may be able to do the right
thing and and and stop the presses you
know before before you know the dollar
goes to nothing there there is there is
no graceful way out at this point we
we've long past that right there's there
is no you know
painfree uh solution here you know you
can hope that AI eases the pain and and
maybe it does hopefully it will you know
that would be good and I take this
differently I'm like if we have an
observable Behavior which is most likely
to
repeat however ugly the situation is
around us we can actually help ourselves
get out of this trap as individual level
by investing correctly around this this
is what I strongly believe in I think
the world is truly screwed but as you
pointed out there is only one way they
will deal with this armed with that
information
that is like the Magic Bullet this is
the everything behind this idea of the
everything code is if you know this to
be what is going to happen you can look
into the future and you know what the
hell to own except every time they've
done it before the dollar hasn't
collapsed because people have maintained
confidence if the dollar Colles if the
dollar collapses it's very different
it's going to look very different than
what you've seen in the last 20 years I
know last time I checked the Venezuelan
stock market it went up like a rocket
ship all I'm saying is Tom you and I
spoke about this when we first started
speaking back in
2020 it's this is the life
raft right the life raft is what saves
people it could be gold I have no issue
with that it could be Bitcoin it could
be tech stocks it could be whatever you
shouldn't be concerning yourself with
any of this stuff this apocalypse
because we know the outcome is financial
repression and print more
money right so we just get to hop on the
life rth and we avoid all of that that's
what I don't get about all of the the
Doom arguments is I get it it's totally
screwed but it's so predictable because
we all agree what they'll do right but
the thing is they've been a they they've
been able to do it and not precipitate a
a a real crisis that only matters if we
do a different thing in the face of what
we've all said too much debt inflation's
the only answer no no not a different
thing if we keep doing the same thing
eventually it's not going to turn out
the way it has the world is not going to
accept it the world is not going to
believe our ability to stimulate with QE
with inflation is predicated on the
false belief that the FED could shrink
the balance sheet uh uh withdraw the
liquidity normalize interest rates we
can pay off the debt I mean when the
markets come to the unfortunate
realization that that's not
true then the bottom drops out and and
we can't kick the can down the road
anymore because there's no more Road and
then we have to deal with the
consequences in a way that we haven't
had to deal with them in the past right
we can't send out stimulus checks
because they bounce right or they don't
buy anything forget about the big
picture what they must do what what
happens to humans in that level you and
I in Investments and Tom right the
individual what is it what happens right
if so let's play this out and I've gone
through this in great
depth is when you play it out if you go
to hyperinflation he who owns assets
wins
fact if you go to any of these you
certainly lose a lot less I me the only
way you do not win is if they do what
you want the most which is Titan policy
so bad
that you let the air out of everything
then we completely get nuked and we are
all poor what I want them to do what I
advocate that they do is contrary to my
strategy because I don't invest based on
what I want but based on what I expect I
expect them to do the wrong thing and so
that's how I'm invested but even if they
do the right thing I think I'll lose a
lot less than everybody else which means
I might win because it's all relative so
if if if portfolio goes down but the
things I want to buy go down even more
I'm I'm
wealthier uh but yes the the best thing
for my strategy is that they do the
opposite of what I'm advising but that's
what I expect them to do you know you
you you you you hope for the best but
you plan for the worst I hope they don't
do these mistakes but I'm pretty sure
they're going to make them you know
that's just the the the the most likely
scenario rather they didn't do what you
want them to do because everybody is
going to lose their entire they're going
to lose more if do what I expect
inflation is going to wipe out more
people than honest default and
restructuring slower uh it'll happen
slower you could take your pains fast or
take it it's all pain right it's all
pain will be slower yeah it'll be a
slower death but it will be a more
painful death it's all pain I get that I
have one last question for you and it'll
be quick over the next six months where
do you guys think the price of Bitcoin
is going to be well I would guess lower
actually it's gone up so much at this
point 6 months from now my my guess
would be lower it's it's about 60,000
now right 61,000 so i' take the under
for 6 months I'll take the over just on
the historical pattern of election years
uh stuff like that tends to go up in a
straight line so you know my time
Horizon is not really six months but
generally speaking in these election
years this kind of Bitcoin harving cycle
it tends to be higher so significantly
higher significantly higher so not just
higher how much higher I think
I don't know but you know I it wouldn't
be surprised me if it's trading at
75,000 uh by
July look I'm might that would I
wouldn't be surprised by that either but
I also wouldn't be surprised if it's you
know 20,000 or less if you like that
clip check out the full powerful episode
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