Kind: captions
Language: en
we have two Futures in our world today
either a Mad Max future or a Star Trek
future do you think that as we
transition over to AI that it will take
us through a valley of Despair or is
this going to be a straight line to
Utopia oh no big valleys of chaotic
despair an AI is going to be a million
times smarter than you this is the
biggest inflection point that we've ever
seen how do they create the next billion
dollar company with three people if
that's the way to play it this is what
needs to happen describe the most likely
sequencing over the next 30 Years uh I
think we for me the AI transition is
typewriter to word processor it's just
an uplifting and enabling of all sorts
of capabilities across multiple multiple
sectors and industries and it transforms
how we do things pretty fundamentally
from creativity to uh uh Rank and file
work to blue color work to ET I think
the robotic stuff is further down the
line than most people think uh Peter's
very excited about it we have all the
human Ed robots but robotics is really
really hard and will take much longer in
my opinion but the AI stuff will
actually allow us to uplift ourselves
very quickly and you know we talk about
scarcity to abundance I think AI gets us
to abundance very very fast and I think
that's for me the most exciting and
optimistic side of things we have two
Futures in our world today either a Mad
Max future which you can see playing out
in Gaza or Ukraine or a Star Trek future
uh where we have abundance and we're
operating on a on a much more highly
conscious basis Etc and so which future
do we pick as a human species is the
choice that's in front of us right now
okay so you believe that there's a
branching path before us uh and we get
to choose which path we go down it's a
little we're actually heading down the
Mad Max path so if you look at our
politics you look at what's happening
you look at the the political rck here
in the US there's a huge transitional
shift happening and you could the my my
favorite sensible way of dealing with or
talking about that is a centralized to
decentralized shift right we run the
world today on very centralized systems
governments and corporations and the
military-industrial complex Etc we're
moving to much more decentralized and
bottom up peer-to-peer
systems um and you could call that a
male archetype versus a female archetype
if you want to go there um but when you
get to abundance you want a female
archetype to be running the world uh
because the female archetype shares
resources around naturally uh so for
example the male archetype when it meets
abundance relates to it as power and
tries to hoard it Middle East oil Wall
Street money Etc female archetype meets
abundance and shares it around so you
really need a sharing decentralized
model as we move the world to abundance
and that's the tension that I think I
see in the world more than anything is
that centralized to decentralize
architecture and we've started to see
the rise of this over the last few
decades the burning men philosophy um
open- Source movements DIY movements the
maker movement Etc democracy itself is
is an is a bottomup movement um as a
reaction to feudal systems and and top
down Empires um and we're moving in that
direction it's just slow and painful and
centralized systems don't like to
relinquish power we know that very
clearly so that's the tension that I see
that's playing out that's underpinning
all the other how it's showing up so for
example when I think about Trump or
brexit it wasn't left versus right it
was actually Urban versus rural brexit
was 100% London versus the rest of the
country why would that be the break
point because there's a tension in
cities and how do we allocate resources
to cities versus the countryside uh
where people because the metabolism of a
city is much faster Innovation happens
very fast in a city and so therefore
that that's the environment in which
we're doing most of our of our
Innovation work and technological
development today and if you're left
behind you get very unhappy with that
and so this is the tension that I think
we're seeing around the world so we have
this fundamental tension between things
could go well things could go poorly um
splitting between the different
archetypes male female how we respond to
abundance power or sharing the resources
uh urban and rural um I'm starting to
get a sense of where you're going do you
think that as we transition over to AI
that it will take us through a value of
Despair or is this going to be a
straight line to Utopia oh no big valys
of chaotic despair um these types of
transitions I think this is the biggest
transformation in the history of
civilization maybe the history of
species on on Earth it's that big and
the transition is going to be very
painful they never are are clean right
like dinos asteroid hits and the
dinosaurs get wiped out and now you have
camon explosion types I think that's the
kind of transition we're seeing here
okay that that is uh arguably the most
devastating thing to ever happen to life
on this Earth yeah uh wait I don't I
don't believe AI gets us there but it's
meaning AI will not have that kind of
cataclysmic that's right knock on effect
that's right actually am I'm hugely
optimistic about the future so just
that's a really important framing Point
um but there's no question in
Civilization at least this is the
biggest inflection point that we've ever
seen and I think that next 30 Years
defines the next 300 years why will the
next 30 Years Define it what what does
that look is that the period of
transition yeah it's the transition
period And this is chaos theory right
the initial conditions are really
critical and how you navigate those
initial conditions with uh as much
experience guidance and a lot of luck
will then guide the rest of the future
uh if you know Chaos Theory the idea is
that if you drop a pebble down the top
of a mountain it doesn't matter how many
times you you drop the pebble is always
going to take a different path because
some micro change in the initial
atmosphere or the pressure when you
released it or the first bounce or the
density of the first thing it hit or the
change in humidity along the way will
have it go down a different route so you
never know what's going to happen but it
just knows we're just in the really big
transition and it's super exciting but
it's very very chaotic I have heard you
that this is going to be very difficult
to predict however one of the most
interesting descriptions of quantum
mechanics I heard is that yes while all
things are simply probabilistic the
world that you see is the most likely
and I thought that was a really great
explanation so assuming that knowing
that no matter how many times we drop
the pebble it be different but there's
there's a most likely sort of cluster of
effects yeah think of it as a a stock
market chart right you never have a
clear straight line it's always a choppy
and then it stabilizes then it has a
breakthrough moment and then it's choppy
again it's kind of like that I think
that's the pattern that we see okay what
causes that like I can actually explain
economically what's going on in terms of
human greed fear and the way that
cultural energy will move through a
medium that can be an economic medium so
you can actually see cultural energy
move through a stock market if anybody
paying attention to bitcoin I will just
tell you right now that is simply a
cultural idea that is spreading through
the medium of cryptocurrency I won't
derail the conversation on that but like
with that in mind that to to me my base
assumption about those jagged lines is
that is human the human brain responding
in a somewhat predictable way and you
can watch that idea Ripple through um
including sort of bounding it so it's
only going to go up so high and it's
only going to go down so low and so you
see this sort of bounding fluctuation
and you can look back through history
and you see that same sort of bounded
fluctuation now those bounded
fluctuations to me are terrifying and if
you read history because like I said
said the long Arc is bending towards
prosperity for all and if you zoom out
long enough on human time scales it's
unbelievable the progress made oh my God
but that that does not help uh the guy
whose family all gets rolled up in rugs
by the Mongols and trampled to death yes
like that's just no consolation and so
I'm saying we're all that guy right we
all live one life yes we are bounded
from a Time perspective so far uh and so
it matters me a lot where I am on these
jagged lines so going back to AI what
are these jegged lines do you buy into
my thesis or do you have a different one
oh I I agree with you but with some
caveats so for example uh the economic
outcomes of AI I think are pretty clear
in terms of what's going to happen I
think we're going to see massive
productivity gains across the board um
The Challenge we have is the underlying
system is flawed in terms of Economic
Development and economic growth right
our entire
system global system is money is the
main mode of discourse in the world
today and it's good because if you think
of money as a form of energy we freed
money energy from religious structures
and feudal systems and then the power of
ideas came along and the power of
Technology came along and now it flows
very nicely very quickly to new ideas
and good ideas VI via Venture Capital
via private Equity Bitcoin new ideas can
pop up and money will flow where the
best ideas are so that's fantastic one
level but um moving from money as a main
mode of discourse in the world to
information as a main mode of discourse
in the world so for example any startup
would much rather gather data about
things rather than gating money early
because they can monetize the data much
more and they're fungible today you can
convert money into information and vice
versa over time information becomes a
high order bit right because take your
health you're much more interested in
the different biomarkers you can track
then how much it'll cost you to fix
things ET because the information is
more valuable so I think as a at a very
metaphysical level we're shifting from
the Quest for money and the Quest for uh
greed Etc and energy that way and
shifting it into information when we
move that transition now Things become
really powerful I think this is the
massive Insight that Ray kwell had when
he started tracking Moors law that as we
digitize we turn things into information
that information can then be manipulated
into back into matter back into money
and vice versa and you have this amazing
cyclical pattern that can take place and
little by little we're moving more and
more into that over time money will
become less important on this scale if
you went back a thousand years ago we
were all working 18 hours a day in the
fields to put three meals on the table
and you some of us still are
asep some of us still are but we but you
didn't have a choice then you pretty
much had to do that only a very small
percent of the population could not do
that right today that number of that
population that can doesn't have to do
that is much much much bigger and little
by little as we uh uh do better vertical
farming and solar energy into all sorts
of remote parts in the world and
satellite internet and water extraction
out of the atmosphere pretty much will
be able to have an amazing life anywhere
on the planet at for every level of
humanity that's why Peter gets so
excited that's why we get so excited
about the technological progress the
problem is our social systems and all
our infrastructure and all our
institutions are not geared for smooth
progress in this thing I think for to
summarize those lines that you were
talking about I would quote eio Wilson
the famous biologist who said um our the
problem with humanity is that our
emotions are Paleolithic our
institutions are medieval and our
technolog is Godlike right pretty much
all the problems in the world come from
the gaps in those layers and I think the
pressure is so intense today that we'll
any leader today will spend the next 20
years of Our Lives
basically dealing with the gaps in those
in those layers yeah let's name that the
human problem the human problem so my
thing is the human problem is not going
anywhere so for instance you were just
talking about um right now people are
seeking money that becomes the game but
now the information is going to become
the higher order bit people are going to
start pursuing that but what I will ask
is why and the answer to me seems
self-evidently it's more powerful so you
still have humans playing a game of
power which is why I'm still very
concerned about these valleys of Despair
Because unless something changes in our
biology that makes us pursue different
things we will simply derange AI we will
simply derange the pursuit of
information and while you and I share a
very optimistic vision of the long-term
future because of that long
Arc what way do you see us so going back
to your branching choice between madmax
or Utopia
how do we nudge Humanity to not go down
madmax which you're saying we're doing
currently and instead go to Utopia what
how do you solve the human problem I
think you open up as fast as possible
and decentralize as fast as possible
okay so the uh number two to uh zalinsky
in the Ukraine is one of our community
members so i' we've got our Global open
EXO community that are building for for
the 21st century building companies and
transforming governments Etc um and I
chat I was chatting with him and he was
asking some advice it turns out they've
been using my book a bit in in their
dealing with the what's happening there
and one of the com comments I made is
look this is how is it that you've
become so resilient as in terms of the
in the face of the aggression and he
said we've decentralized the country
we've decentralized the country so
there's no single point of attack for
energy or for infrastructure or for
electricity Etc and we've been doing
that for 10 years because we could see
this could be a likely possibility so I
think what happens is when you
decentralize things become much much
more resilient just take energy for
example if you decentralize we can have
solar energy powering lots of small
communities then there's no need for
security at the central power grid
because there isn't one and anybody can
generate solar energy at a very local
level and the efficiency means we'll get
better and better at in it and better
and better generating it and now you
have amazing resource capability
anywhere and a wonderful level most of
our Wars over the last 100 years have
been over energy oil specifically right
so when we free ourselves from that
hopefully you should get to a peaceful
nature now I was under the impression
for a while that huh when we get to
abundance that we won't be fighting
anymore and I got disillusioned from
that by a couple of the deep thinkers
who said no we'll still have lots of
human conflict because humans are really
geared towards conflict in X prise we
try and push people towards healthy
competition and let's work things out
that way we've got all sorts of really
great ways of dealing with the natural
conflict that we bring up in human
beings for example sports teams the
Olympics uh uh Etc and that allows us to
vent a lot of kind of aggression that
might otherwise come out in other ways
uh but we still have to deal with the
fundamental human nature problem and I'm
I'm hopefully the the abundance inside
gets there faster than some lone uh
small team of people trying to use AI to
design a virus that will attack all
middle-aged Indian bald guys right that
would be the The Hope okay uh so
decentralization I am one of the few
people that is beyond obsessed with
cryptocurrencies web 3 uh and believes
that decentralization is just deeply
problematic so the reason I think that
decentral ation is deeply problematic is
that you cannot Galvanize the energy of
humans well and so while some things
will respond to decentralization very
well so take um the very nature of the
blockchain the fact that it is
distributed that they all run as nodes
is brilliant I'm here for that I love it
the most yeah uh however I am doing
battle with coinbase for instance which
keeps wanting to verify my identity
keeps asking me where I got my money I'm
like bro I'm about as public as you get
I don't know what else you want want me
to show you uh but I want them to be
centralized because I don't want to have
to like do a bunch of crazy stuff to
make sure that I'm getting my um crypto
Exchange in a safe way all that stuff so
I'm I'm making a willing trade uh for
Simplicity for security I know all the
memes but nonetheless and I think that
more people are like me okay so people
want centralization and you have a hard
time aiming everybody's energy in the
same direction when all the decision
making is completely distributed yeah
you also have what our founding fathers
were trying to protect against which is
the tyranny of the majority yes and so
there are reasons I think to be
skeptical that decentralization is a
magical solution um so let's use Ukraine
since you brought them up as an example
there's a guy named John
mimer brilliant political thinker um
military I don't know if he's officially
a strategist but anyway seems to deeply
understand that and he just keeps saying
Ukraine is going to lose it is
inevitable and they're going to end up a
dysfunctional rump State and when I hear
that rhetoric I'm like okay one let me
just be very clear I have not I'm not
close enough to the problem or to just
that thing in general to know if he's
right but there's so much internal logic
to the way that he approaches it so I'm
looking at your argument they've
decentralized a bunch of things so it
becomes harder to attack but that also
makes it feel like each region is going
to be easier to overtake and so if I'm
Russia I'm just going to go Zone by Zone
by Zone being like I don't have to worry
about the whole Collective because you
guys are decentralized so I'm just going
to eat this node and then eat this node
yeah uh however the problem with eating
these nodes is keeping that node is
non-trivial okay so for example they
installed a bunch of Russian Mayors in
some of the initial towns that they and
they just put car bombs under them and
started blowing them up so now who wants
to go be a Russian mayor of a local
Ukrainian town when your lifespan is
going to be very short so the resistance
is going to be uh strong just because
they don't have a choice right this is
their this is the existential for them
and this is the same thing why it's
difficult to take over Afghanistan or
take over a it may become a rum State
that's possible but if that's the case
it was going to become that anyway way
and you might as well fight it which is
what they're doing right now the
question is can they win and I think
they can't win without obviously a huge
amount of Western aid but I think they
could win in that in that situation what
do you think becomes the galvanizing
Force so you mentioned Afghanistan I
have a feeling without a sense of
cultural identity and possibly religion
it would be easy to disrupt but there's
a galvanizing force that allows the
distributed nature of all of that to
work that they still have this thing
that sits over them that unites them
yeah so this is a great question is what
is that binding Force because it used to
be religion right we started actually it
used to be tribal structures because we
would cooperate on nomadic tribes and
the tribes would then fight and over a
time period of time we the as technology
be became better the tribes that get
bigger and bigger in formed countries
and Empires right the Mongols that you
mentioned earlier my my favorite thing
about the Mongols is an old from an old
BBC documentary that said they destroyed
anything they got angry at and they got
angry at anything they didn't understand
so they came down from the steps down to
Han China found a million Chinese
Farmers doing agriculture didn't
understand it got angry at it and
literally wiped out a million Farmers
just because they because of that
cascading logic right um now if you grow
an Empire to a certain level uh can you
keep it or not keep it as one area the
ones that worked best are the ones that
decentralized the administration and
navigated local preferences in a
powerful way Akbar in in India the
Mongols did it pretty powerfully and
pretty well Alexander the Great managed
it pretty well the Roman Empire did
pretty well there's that whole idea of
the fourth turning and all of the
cyclical aspects I I I look at all these
folks picky
ralo uh Yuval Harari Etc and I think
they're incredibly insightful about the
past I find they're not that useful
about the future why because I think
this inflection point and I know this is
a tired uh kind of meme of this time is
different but I think this time is
really different the combination of
energetic abundance and lifespan that
we're about to break uh life extension
Plus AI makes it a completely different
cocktail than we've ever seen before in
the history of humanity and so I think
this is a complete step change and this
is why it's so exciting to be around
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theory for the audience that doesn't
know you you have a business um
framework that I think is going to be
really useful to help us think through
because um I keep finding you drift to
the well once we're on the other side of
this there's energy abundance and it
solves all these medical problems and
those are the things that I think calms
everybody down in the long run but they
do not help us in the next call it from
now to seven years is sort of the time
window where I think things are going to
get really weird so really fast walk
people through um your thinking around
um how in business we can use some of
these strategies to uh become an
exponential organization sure so you
know if you went back to the 20th
century the most successful
organizations were the biggest top- down
hierarchical command and control
structures pyramid structured with a CEO
at the top
uh designed for two things designed for
efficiency and designed for
predictability right if you're if you're
Pampers you're trying to deliver the
same box of Pampers in a million
locations around the world or McDonald's
or healthc care services or whatever
today you need to be architected for
agility flexibility adaptability and
speed okay and we found uh in the last
episode we did with you that the top 10
of the Fortune 100 that are the most
flexible and agile compared to the
bottom 10 in our opinion that are the
least EXO friendly had delivered 40
times better shareholder returns over a
7-year period than the on so there's a
clear economic thesis here that as the
world becomes more volatile your ability
to adapt will drive market value and
drive have a better organization so how
do you build that and we call these
exponential organizations where you have
a massive purpose like cure cancer Elon
has three take us to space solve
Transportation solve the climate um and
then you build an organization with a a
set of externalities like leveraging
Community like Ted does um leveraging
assets that you don't own like Airbnb uh
not hiring your own staff like uber and
then a set of internal
mechanisms like The Lean Startup
thinking ideas and decentralize orc
structures because you can push
decision- making to the edge we found
that the more of these characteristics
are used the better and we're clear now
over the next decade that every
government Department impact project
nonprofit for profit will tend towards
these structures because we now have
enough evidence to show that that's
better so for example when we talk to
CEOs today they are not AI ready at all
because they're old 20th century
organization structures is absolutely
not set up for what's coming with AI
right they're not AI ready and so
they're all asking is can you please
give us a workshop set us up with some
help on how do we navigate Ai and I see
two problems that are Paramount today
with companies implementing AI the first
is they jump in very quickly and they
can't see the Rocks before they dive in
and they get into trouble either by
accidentally putting all their data into
chat GPT or um um putting the wrong
models into place and the second issue
which is the bigger issue is the immune
system problem so I first came across
this problem at Yahoo and I was running
their incubator and the more disruptive
an idea we came up with in the incubator
the less the company could handle it
right I was like wait you hired me to do
disruptive stuff and I bring you
something and you guys can't cope right
you can't integrate it why because of
that that if efficiency and and Agility
problem um that really stuck in my head
and going through seven years of
building Singularity and noticing that
we have 20 Gutenberg moments hitting us
AI is hitting us right now but we have
biotech we have blockchain is in as
Gutenberg moment solar energy is a
Gutenberg moment life extension is a
Gutenberg moment um we will not be able
to manage the future with our current
existing organization structures or our
current government structure or
institution
structures so we architected this model
it we now can see that it will work and
we the two we have to solve two things
one is um uh what's the thoughtful way
in which you apply technology to derive
Great Value from it secondly how do you
navigate that immune system response and
so we're coaching companies and so on
how to do this because if you push AI
into a company all the people go whoa
Nelly and they freak out and uh the
antibodies attack you and nothing moves
this analogy was first given to me by
the CTO of Autodesk I was chatting with
him and I was complaining about he's
like oh you've got an immune system
response and I went ding it's the best
articulated framing you try anything
disruptive in a big company and it's
worse in the public sector because we
have taxis fighting Uber we have Bankers
fighting Bitcoin we're not progressing
Society along enough quickly enough
because when there's new technological
breakthroughs all the antibodies freak
out and we get so we have to solve that
problem problem at a cultural level CU
companies have their immune systems but
and governments have their but
institutions have really bad immune
systems education God help you if you
try and update Academia religion has
probably the worst immune system because
they'll kill you in in literally in
those cases right um so I I remember
having a conversation with Salman Rashi
a few years ago and he was talking about
the fatwa and I asked him how was that
like for you and he said you know I grew
up in the 60s and he had this really
tired tone in his voice he goes I grew
up in the' 60s we thought we nailed
religion we thought it was done and then
in the 80s it comes roaring back and
boom immune system problem did you talk
to him before or after cuz he got
attacked like got he lost an eyed him or
something yeah that was just recently I
haven't talked to for decades they laid
in weight they well not laid in weight
but the problem is that when you have
deep-seated institutional or political
beliefs they don't go away they're wired
into your limic system so all religions
work in the following way okay you take
a young child below the age of 10 you
give them an absolute truth an
assumptive truth like Virgin Mary
Muhammad is the last prophet Jesus is is
the Son of God whatever and then you
bind it into them with the ritual
repetition and a lot of sweets a lot of
sugar okay and all religious functions
operate on this and then when the when
the neocortex forms in the from the 10
to 13y old age the kid's brain is
already deeply wired with these absolute
assumptive truth and you can't if you if
you stress it at that point you evoke a
fight ORF flight response this is why
the Jesuits say give me the boy until
the age of seven I'll give you the Met
right because you can wire a young child
so all religions operate that way we
have to undo uh some of that damage that
we're doing to kids with religion around
this but the problem that you pointed
out that's really important is what's
the binding coagulant that holds Society
together in the absence of that model
and that's the big challenge we have to
figure out storytelling is one aspect of
it we have modern myths like Star Wars
and Star Trek and others that are
popping up but they're not they're not
connective enough as tissue to hold us
together yeah agreed also I think that
even though I've dedicated my life to
that form of Storytelling it it does not
touch the realm of religion which is why
I'm utterly fascinated with what's going
on right now uh what I think of is the
um the tradical isation of society so we
are going to
be radicalized in the direction of the
traditional I think we're the next 3
years is really going to be marked by
that and I think because of AI it's just
going to massively fuel those Flames but
uh before we get lost on that the the
idea of the immune system which I think
is incredibly important as you were
talking this is so hilarious to how my
mind works I was like he's setting his
own trap okay
so keep in mind what I really want
people to understand is I think and I
think you'll agree with this the world
is going to be fundamentally different
three to five years from now yes and to
a point you start stretching that out
far enough and it it becomes absolutely
unrecognizable if you have a kid that's
in kindergarten now by the time they
reach high school the world will look
nothing like it does now this is a very
near-term
concern what you're calling the immune
system which to me is a reflection of
what I'm calling the human problem which
is humans long for power humans have
Pursuit uh dialed to 11 so want to get
better they want to acre more power we
all we also have this massive quest for
control to make sense of the world to
control the world right because you know
if you go back to our our um
evolutionary Roots it was a survive or
die either you manage the world around
you or it manages you and you're at
you're you're done pretty quickly so you
have to gain control of your environment
as fast as possible and as aggressively
as possible in that model we are now
controlling this most of the species on
the planet with whether we like it or
not we're controlling the atmosphere
whether we like it or not accidentally
badly um now we're trying to manage this
future of technology and this is where
regulatory comes in right we try and put
in guard rails for how we manage
technology going forward and you know
over the centuries we've done a pretty
good job of it the big challenge with
regulator is how do you extract the
promise of Technology without the Peril
right like I can use fire to heat my
house and I can use it to burn down your
house how do we navigate that I tend to
be really optimistic about this because
of the old eBay study that I think we
talked about last
time so when Craigslist and eBay emerged
um for the first time you could study
human nature at scale and because I can
on Craigslist very easily put up a fake
picture of a Macbook you send me $1,000
and I'm off to Fiji right and I can mask
my email address pretty quickly same
thing with Craiglist so sociologist and
anthropologist got pretty interested in
this said oh we can actually study human
nature and I can equally do good or bad
what's the actual ratio right so they
started studying these systems Kajiji in
Canada Craigslist here eBay Etc and it
turns out very consistently across these
systems where a human being can do a
positive or fraudulent transaction the
actual ratio turns out to be something
like 8,000 to1 consistently okay which
is really surreal and Incredibly
exciting actually because that means if
you opened up drones and said anybody do
whatever they want with drones you'll
get 8,000 positive use cases to the one
bad guy okay which make which is
fantastic for society except our current
model is drones come out the regulatory
goes oh my God somebody might load up a
a C4 on a drone and flyed into the White
House just can ban all drones and then
slowly open that tap and over a 20-year
period we get the benefits of that
technology so we have a ton of problems
with imprisons today with drones flying
cell phones and cameras and money over
the Prison Walls and dropping them into
the prisoners and the wardens are going
crazy right so hello uh let's deal with
this in a different way so now there's
Technologies to solve the Drone uh
interference problem we'll get there but
this is a technological uh uh Arbitrage
problem and so the challenge is how do
we make sure we're doing good things
with technology not the bad things with
technology and over the years I think
we're doing a pretty good job of it in
general but I think that with the
democratization of technology and the
easy access to anybody that has access
to AI or can home build a drone this
becomes harder and harder so we have to
lift human nature and get to abundance
and give everybody what they want
materially as fast as we can so they
don't go down the dark path is is One
path that that was an obvious one I
think even if I were to accept the ratio
of good actors to Bad actors the thing
that's missing is the level to which a
bad actor Will exploit yes important the
amplitude of that negative is growing
right so the amount of damage one person
can do is growing exponentially and so
our ability to control one person is
dropping exponentially that's a not a
great equation um we have Mark Goodman
as one of our community members he's a
he was a futurist for the FBI uh so if
you can get him drunk he has awesome
stories about how criminals and
terrorists use bad use technology in a
negative way and it's actually
fascinating to see how creative they are
around some of this um but the the big
challenge is the amplitude is actually
growing back to the Middle East Indian
ball guy virus yeah which hopefully they
never make I would be very sad even
though most people are going to do good
things you're going to have these
moments of uh exploitation people will
take advantage of that the amplitude of
that is growing you also have the immune
system response that is just trying to
stop change from happening uh which can
be good or bad but ultimately I think it
is to your point you have a a creature
that is born of evolution that had to
learn to control its environment that
had to have Pursuit dialed to 11 so it
would try to go out and try to control
its environment and do better things for
the group and all that stuff and acquire
power and all that so I am still at this
moment of before us is a fork in the
road and EV you have really done a great
job of laying out what humans are like
but I still don't see the thing other
than AI finally begins delivering on
some of the promises and then we all go
okay yeah cool like I'm going to embrace
this but I still think we have to go
through Mad Max I don't see any way
around that equation um so if you feel
like there's an argument left that will
convince me if not please detail for us
what are those amazing things that AI is
going to deliver us that will make
having gone through this Valley of
dispair well worth unleashing AI upon
the world okay so important to note that
we don't have a choice about unleashing
AI into the world Kevin Kelly wrote this
book what technology wants and basically
AR showed in very clear thing that
technology is moving at its own pace and
our only hope is to really keep up with
it because it's it's taken on a life of
its own in a sense because if we try and
regulate AI then other people go run a
muck with it and so it ends up being an
arms race and you end up having to do it
anyway so now uh let me give you the
some use cases where AI can radically
change things in a short period of time
for the radically better um I'll Channel
Imad mustak here this the head of St who
is the head of stability and one of the
projects he's working on is can we take
all the healthc Care data in a country
and load it up into an LM and all the
legal legislative the law books and put
that into an llm and all the software
codebase globally and put that in and
you give every child three or four links
a doctor a lawyer a software programmer
and a General AI helper okay now if you
give every kid in Africa a link with a
doctor and there's a medical problem at
home they will just start using it and
transforming their uh Health Care
locally for
free and this will completely change the
world same thing with education as we
load up all the educational content into
an AI it's going to do a way better job
at teaching kids and kids can self-learn
in a much more effective way than our
current systems can do it so you do
those two things uh and Healthcare and
education suddenly become free and
adapted and personalized to every child
in the world that's an unbelievable
future so the whole ecosystem and the
methodology we've been building is how
do you enable those people to build as
fast as possible and build that
optimistic future as fast as possible
and that's what exponential
organizations so EXO as we use it as a
metaphor is the is the thing at the edge
exoskeleton exoplanet exothermic
reaction so we want to find EXO Builders
and EXO Heroes that's the collection
we're launching on finding people that
are building things at the edge because
we need to build that edge very fast and
let that become the new Gravity Center
very fast because the current system is
imploding think like a Sci-Fi writer for
me for a second yes so a Sci-Fi riter's
job is not to imagine the automobile
it's to predict the traffic jam so what
are the if we're giving people access to
all this information around Healthcare
they have a private doctor a private
lawyer uh they're educated it's hyper
tailored to them we're going to unlock
as much of their intelligence and their
creativity as is going to be possible um
what are the things that are born of
that well I think there will be some
negatives you'll may have accidents
people misinterpret the data people do
Source the wrong information from their
bodies and put it into the AI and you'll
get the wrong diagnosis lots of issues
can come along but the general outcome
was the benefits will so outweigh the
negatives that I think it's it's
absolutely worth doing okay there's no
question in my mind that giving kids the
ability to learn at their own pace on
their own and then socializing as they
need to in different ways is going to
transform the education system in a much
more powerful way from a push system to
a pull system right can I just delve
into education just for a second please
Okay so we've been doing education for a
couple hundred years on what I call John
Hegel used to call the push system you
get a bunch of kids into a classroom and
you try and cram algebra into them right
mostly they're thinking about lunch
little by little we move to a pool basis
where I pull I take a new job or new
role or new gig and I pull down the
knowledge I need to do that job right
that's great now we're and the whole
education system for the last few
hundred years has been supply side go
become an accountant an engineer a
doctor a lawyer um um a plumber and sell
that in the job Marketplace acquire set
of skills which is what universities do
they give you that job schooling which
is all that universities do today and
then you go to the job market the demand
side and you try and sell those skills
in the demand side I think what we're
going to see happen is we're going to go
from push-based education to pull-based
learning but demand driven so for
example if you take Elon he's like I'm
going to build an electric car and let
me go find the Technologies the skills
the capabilities I need no experience or
capability of doing it at the time but
he'll pull them towards him and solve
that problem so what we see kids doing
this is what's encapsulated in the
massive transformative purpose in the in
the EXO model pick a huge purpose cure
cancer okay and then go find the
Technologies and skills and capabilities
and pull those to you as you need to to
solve those problems that I think is
going to be the future of Education
getting there from the existing system
is
impossible so you need technology to
help you bridge that gap between a and b
and you need it to be permissionless so
one of the most exciting vectors of
human development that I'm seeing today
is something I call PDI per lless
disruptive innovation okay if you wanted
to do disruptive innovation throughout
history you had to get a sponsor an
investor a government to bless you
somebody had to give you permission to
go do that or give you the resources to
go do that look at um ethereum vitalic
bter middle class kid out of Toronto
gets together with eight friends boom
they go create ethereum for no money
with no cash no resources and boom it's
now a $400 billion ecosystem right um
take my favorite example is this is the
is a car that's called the Vega it's um
it looks like a Lamborghini it's the
third fastest car in the world 900
horsepower this thing it's being
designed and engineered and built in Sri
Lanka which is an island of fishermen
and Farmers with no investors ecosystem
experience education or track record I'm
going to suggest that if you can do
ethereum or if you can build the third
fastest car in the world on an island I
love showing it German car Executives
their brains literally melt when they
see this right um I'm going to suggest
you can do anything anywhere so now we
can give people the tools to build
radical new Solutions in vertical
farming and a new battery technology all
over the world and just let them go and
they'll figure it out and that's why
we're trying to De that's why the
decentralized world is so important we
need to decentralize Innovation as fast
as possible and that Vector might pull
us out as faster than the Mad Max vector
so that's my
hope okay it might pull us faster than
the Mad Max Vector okay so that's the
well it might get us to a a secure place
faster than madmax will destroy
us got it so we're we are going into
madmax territory but hopefully before
that can completely destroy everybody we
yeah for example we're mostly in the
middle east fighting for the last 100
years because of oil if we have solar
energy delivering an energy abundance
which will happen in the next four
doublings about 8 to 10 10 years then
you don't need oil and therefore what
are you fighting over right so that's
the hope now will we find other things
to fight about absolutely because we're
human beings but but it'll be less
existential I hope if you look at the
number of people dying in Wars today is
actually incredibly small compared to
100 years ago 200 years ago 500 so the
data is very clear the trend is very
good uh but we need to get out of our
current structures because our current
structures will take us back my my
biggest observation I've ever had about
human beings is that human beings would
much rather be comfortable than happy H
can you give me more detail on that
please yeah uh I may not Embrace uh
healthc care Technologies they may
deliver longevity because I'm so stuck
in a judeo-christian religious framework
of the world that heaven is a good thing
and I want to get to heaven as fast as
possible that feels like uh either
familiarity and fitting in with a tribe
comfortable comfortable I think of
comfortable as I'm warm I'm safe I'm
relaxed and both may be equally true and
emotionally emotionally secure let's use
that as an easy moniker for comfortable
right so uh you could put something
amazing in front of somebody can can I
tell you a story about the the Trump
election one so I'm Canadian uh and my
Canadian passport I'm like Golem with
the precious like hold on to that thing
as the US goes into all sorts of Chaos
about 3 months after Trump is elected in
2016 I was in a in an Uber going to a
conference and the health the driver is
looking very unhealthy and I said are
you okay uh how much do you drive he
goes oh I drive 18 hours a day I said 18
hours a day um uh hopefully you're not
at the end of your shift because that's
not great for me as a passenger then he
tells you this amazing story he was the
CEO of a 300 person construction firm
and uh they voted as a company should
they get rid of corporate Healthcare or
not and they vote as a he lobbies for it
because less admin for the company bit
more expensive for the people but more
choice so he votes lobbies and they get
rid of they vote and they get rid of
corporate Healthcare three weeks later
he's not feeling well goes to the doctor
and finds out he's got multiple stage
three cancers riddling his body and now
he's got a major problem because they
got rid of the healthcare he can't get
covered because of the pre-existing
conditions problem so one of those Pops
at stage four and he's a dead man so he
literally starts planning his funeral
ener G gives away the company plans his
end times like like really right there
I'm like that's incredible but you said
that happened a few years ago you're
here now what happened he goes Obamacare
passed I'm like okay he goes then I
could get the insurance I got the
treatment I saved my life I'm like wow
what a journey to go through you think
you're going to die and then this thing
happens and it saves your life we pull
into the hotel I'm getting out of the
car and kind of as joke I said I guess
in this last election you must have
voted for Hillary Clinton and he goes no
I voted for Trump and I I was Gob
smacked and I said but but you just said
Obamacare saved your life he goes yeah
it did completely 100% Obamacare they my
left I said but then you voted for the
guy that said he was going to get rid of
it on his first day he goes yeah and
he's getting rid of it and now I'm back
to planning my funeral I've never been
able to square that Circle you didn't
ask him the followup question I was so
if you could go back and do it again
what would you do what was what would be
the followup question you would ask I I
would have asked um did you know that
was going to be the outcome and if so
did you there's it that leads me to
believe you have a base assumption that
something trumps your own personal
safety I I I I've never I've never I've
I've I've sat with that like anecdote
for years now I've never been able to
figure that out where people will
literally vote against their
self-interest I don't think anyone votes
against their self-interest I think
there are things that they care about
that they may not be aware of yet so he
may have a philosophical underpinning
that he's not even aware of a value
system that drives him forward cuz he
the very thing and look I don't know
this guy who knows but just hearing what
I've heard that what I would say drives
him is freedom over everything so hey we
have a healthcare plan but I can make it
better by giving people choice oh
that bit me in the ass but my value
system is still there Trump in his mind
stands for more freedoms and so I'm
going to vote for more freedoms even
though it brings me now obviously I'd
want to p push him and like really
understand if that's what he's saying
but I find most people are driven by a
value system that they don't understand
but they are driven by it every choice
they make yeah is an echo of a value
system they don't understand can I say
something out of a little bit of anger
at all times I've lived in eight
countries around the world for more than
a year each so I've seen a lot of
different systems Healthcare governance
Etc Canada Europe India you name it um
this whole Vector of Freedom drives me
crazy because it's a complete
it's complete horseshit I feel less free
in the US than most other countries in
the world why are you here oh great
place to do
business fascinating it's a great place
to but I feel I'll give you I'll give
you because here in the US the reason
the US is successful is there's a latent
entrepreneurship that is unbelievably
powerful and it optimizes in Silicon
Valley where if you build a business and
you fail we call it experience anywhere
else in the bu in the world you build a
business and a fails you're a bad guy
right and this is true around the world
um so we have one Freedom the freedom to
fail freedom to fail is a huge one and
it's institutionalized in bankruptcy
laws it's it's you can fairly elegantly
shut down a company here compared to
other places I built a subsidiary for
one of my businesses to do software
development in India and the mothership
failed and it orphaned the subsidiary
right um it took me seven years to shut
down that subsidiary in India Jesus
because all the political the the
regulatory blah blah blah crap just the
thing am I likely to ever do another
business in India again never because
who wants to go through that hell right
whereas in the US if some