Kind: captions
Language: en
Bitcoin is worthless if you do nothing
with it if no one trades a bit another
Bitcoin ever again it falls to zero hold
on that's a very big statement there's
chaos in the universe it's always
increasing everyone's going to go to war
at some point so everyone's beefing up
on defense the incentives you create by
allowing the government to steal is so
wrong that we're going to create an
entirely new system we've accomplished
nothing we have not done what Bitcoin is
there to do and therefore we will be
rewarded with
zero do you think that we are in a truly
once in a-lifetime moment that um people
should stop pay attention figure out
what their crypto strategy is absolutely
we are at the culmination of the post
World War II period we've we've we've
had four generations since then so all
the people who fought in the War pretty
much dead so we've lost that that
knowledge that reticence to ever do
something stupid and terrible like a
total World War ever again now we have
people around the world who are
celebrating these leaders who are
bombing indiscriminate civilians because
it you know solves their particular
issue whatever that is because we don't
have this institutional knowledge so
everyone else is dead who would
participated in World War II so and we
also have a a situation where you know
the United States did very well out of
War War II and created a whole global
system that to preserve their hegemony
and now that's coming undone uh and you
know when top dog is getting challenged
by the dogs at the bottom there's always
conflict and so we're at that point in
time we have no institutional memory of
how bad war is and we have a preeminent
power that's being challenged by others
who was going to resort to violence to
preserve their position I think we are
at this situation that has happened in
the past many times empires have come
and gone but now we have for the first
time in human history a an ability to
save in a currency Bitcoin and the
cryptocurrency situation in general that
is globally owned by
everyone and so the people own a new
type of money it's people around the
world can still sell their Fiat whatever
and buy Bitcoin it's not blocked or
banned in most places yet and so you're
able to move wealth between this analog
system that we've had for thousands of
years into a new way of socially
creating Financial wealth the financial
system
a new type of money this sort of this
sort of situation is never going to
happen again because we have all these
Fiat assets that are being depreciated
and everyone knows it's happening and
now we have this little small door
called Bitcoin and people are starting
to go through the small door and that's
why the Bitcoin price is up I don't know
50% or 60% this year already as now we
have the institutional investors saying
yeah I understand this game is rigged I
helped rig the game now I have a product
where I can can get out of this mess
that I created get me the [ __ ] out of
government bonds I want some of this
Bitcoin too so now everyone's competing
to get in this little door and that's
why the price is going up so this is a
once in a-lifetime Opportunity we have a
system reset and we have a way to
preserve wealth in the old system and
bring it into the new system and that's
what crypto is all right that's powerful
so if we think of crypto as the arc that
we can all get on before the rain comes
uh the catch is that you've got all
kinds of different cryptocurrencies all
kinds of different thesis about which
one we should be getting into um what's
your take how do you break down the
world of crypto so Bitcoin is the
reserve currency if you will of crypto
it's the ultrasound money it's it's
crypto money it's and it's proven that's
that's what it cares about the community
of Bitcoin cares about security and um
the immutability of the Bitcoin
blockchain and it wants to make it the
soundest crypto money so if you're
thinking about okay I don't know
anything else about crypto but I kind of
believe in this whole inflation and
changing Global relations story than
just buy Bitcoin right it's got the
largest market cap um it's very
conservative with the types of things
that are added to the the network
because everyone wants to make sure that
Bitcoin is always the hardest money so
the experimentation is much lower on
bitcoin than other uh other networks um
next you go to well okay can we build a
new Financial system within crypto
that's decentralized Finance defi um and
ethereum in my in my worldview is the
the best decentralized computer that has
been built uh thus far and so if you
think okay I think we need a new
Financial system that's based on these
crypto know crypto assets that's
decentralized that's transparent blah
blah blah then ethereum uh is where it's
at now once you get past those two
things I'd say most other things in than
crypto are either some sort of
application that rides on top of
ethereum or a decentralized like
computer another blockchain trying to
disrupt either being the best money or
the best decentralized computer and then
you sort of have to get into the Weeds
on understanding what it is these
Protocols are are trying to do so for
those who just want to like close their
eyes and buy something that's crypto
safe not saying that's you know there's
no risk here I would say Bitcoin and
ethereum are where you should start your
journey and once you say okay maybe
there's some things I think these
protocols could do better or I've been
hearing some things about these exciting
new very smart people building something
then you start going down the rabbit
hole of of other coins that do other
things and obviously have more risk
because they're experimenting more what
do you advise people around volatility I
think one of the things that draws
people to crypto specifically is is the
volatility I'm actually very curious to
see what happens to um cultural energy
around crypto once it's the the tried
and true thing volatility is your friend
the reason why you're even thinking
about crypto is because the price went
up a lot and you heard about it so you
want volatility the entire
trafi traditional government apparatus
is trying to do something unnatural
which is remove volatility from the
system entropy is always is increasing
it is unnatural to try to suppress
volatility think about it like your lawn
if you have one at your house right
entropy says the grass keeps growing
because that's what the grass does what
do you try to do you spend energy to cut
the grass because you want it to look a
certain way a certain nonvolatile
Pleasant way but it's unnatural if you
don't have the energy to cut the grass
the Grass Grows and the grass will grow
long after you're gone because you can
only do this so long and that's the same
thing governments and central banks and
banking systems are doing they're trying
to squash volatility we don't want
volatility and they're trying to
convince you that it's safe but there is
no such thing as safe there's chaos in
the universe it's always increasing
they're doing the unnatural Thing by
trying to remove it and then at certain
points they can't do it anymore and then
there's an explosion somewhere whether
it's a war whether it's a financial
crisis so embrace the volatility this is
the nature of the universe and that's
why Bitcoin in crypto is a good thing
because there is none of this
manipulation it goes up it goes down but
it's a true reflection of what the
universe is so I think volatility is a
good thing obviously that means if you
use leverage be very judicious about it
if you're a leverage if leverage trading
is your thing that better be your
full-time job like you better eat
breathe and sleep the thing that you're
trading because that's the only way that
you're going to survive thinking that
you're going to get home from work put
on some highly leveraged crypto trade
and just trade for a few hours and then
go to sleep you will lose all your
money okay volatility as a good thing do
you think that crypto will lose some of
its um its potency its cultural energy
when the volatility begins dying down or
will like in a given cycle the way that
this traditionally goes is uh you've got
Bitcoin which has massive volatility but
is less Vol volatile than some of the
what people lovingly call
shitcoins um so people tend to go down
the curve so they'll start with Bitcoin
they'll ride that up as that begins to
stabilize and chop sideways then they're
going to go to the next volatile if that
crashes or whatever they go to the next
the next the next constantly chasing
volatility um will that forever be
people will just keep introducing new
and highly volatile things or will it
become more like gold where it's it's a
far more stable entity well Bitcoin as
you law of large numbers the larger it
gets the less volatile it becomes
um and as you mentioned right for people
who are saying I want to make big gains
in a short period of time Bitcoin might
not do it for them they say well I need
the next new new new thing and so they
start trading whatever the new shiny
Bobble is that's being sold out there in
in crypto there's nothing wrong with
that just recognize what you're trying
to do if you're saying I want to save in
a ultrasound money then yes so
volatility is not a good or bad thing
for Bitcoin it's it will go down over
time as the asset class gets bigger if
you're saying I need the volatility I'm
a professional Trader this is what I'm
here for then there will always be a new
thing to trade because the great thing
about crypto is it's this the only free
market left where humans are expressing
themselves and whatever is we think is
valuable there's no manipulating force
with you know an unlimited bag of fiat
currency that's telling us what is a
good and or bad investment and so there
will always be volatile things within
the crypto ecosystem so long as there's
human beings Trading and I guess we'll
have the machines too soon these AI
operators uh in the
ecosystem it's really interesting so I
want to get to the essence of um what
crypto is I want to get to the essence
of What markets are why people play them
so I I really want to be the
contribution that I make to um I mean
anything that I do quite frankly is
helping people get to the essence of it
to think from first principles to build
a thesis uh even though ultimately I
think that only the simple spreads I do
want people to be able to understand the
the nature of this do do you see markets
as gambling like are they gambling at
their very nature I'd move it even more
fundamental we are gamblers everyone all
the time constantly because we don't
know what the future holds um so let's
take an example and I wrote this in a
previous essay so imagine you're going
there's a building you walk out the
building
you can either take the stairs or take
an
elevator um so the stair taking the
stairs using your own feet walking up is
safer than the mechanical thing which is
an
elevator but walking up the stairs takes
more energy than riding up the elevator
so what do you do well your brain you
know whether you're conscious of it or
not is constantly evaluating the
probability that if I do one of these
things will there will there be harm
that comes to me and is the probability
of that harm outweighed by the gain
whether it's time or energy by using one
or the other modes of transportation and
so you're gambling you don't know what
do you know if this elevator is going to
break down and fall 30 flights in an
instant no but you believe that there's
been a um credible engineer that's
designed this piece of technology that
there's a government building codes that
govern how it's been installed and how
it's been made
so the risk of me taking this elevator
even though I don't know if it's going
to fail when I get on it is very very
low therefore I will take the elevator
because it's faster and less energy
spent than walking up the stairs to the
top of the building right so we gamble
all day every day because the future is
unknown so for people that say that oh
markets are bad because it's gambling no
your whole life is a gamble you do not
know what's going to happen one moment
to the next you are constantly assigning
a probability to the Future and that's
what the market is the market is for a
particular thing what does the crowd say
the probability of the future of this
company building this product making
this money or this asset being worth
whatever it's worth in the future what
do the crowd think that's what the
market is telling us and the market
gives us great signals as to what the
crowd actually thinks because we're
putting our money on the line and what
is money money is Just Energy and our
time in an abstracted form that's why
money is the most important thing in any
society because if you degrade the value
of money you degrade someone's time and
their effort and their energy and it
it's you know it's a front to human
dignity if you degrade the value of the
money that they earn by doing work to
you know earn a living pay for food blah
blah blah right so markets are gambling
but your entire existence is a gamble as
well so I don't think there's a problem
with that okay this is uh really
interesting and it goes back to what I
was talking about with um the ability to
save from where I'm sitting feels like
it should be a human right uh so okay
let me just go back and recap what you
said money is energy and time in an
abstracted form so uh you go to work and
some you do a thing that the world says
that they value which is why somebody's
willing to pay you for that because
they're able to create a thing that they
sell to somebody so you spend energy and
time creating a thing that people want
to buy now what that allows you to do is
Pro of work so you have this unit of
money that you've exchanged for your
labor now when you are putting that into
a system where they can socialize losses
so H this is it drives me crazy how
complicated this all is but let me just
walk everybody
through what ends up happening in the
current Keynesian economic model that we
have which uh I'll give a brief
summation of Keynesian economic if you
see that I've gone wrong in any way
please jump in uh Keynesian economics is
basically hey uh the market left to its
natural devices is going to swing wildly
there are going to be massive upsides
there are going to be massive downsides
and if you if you get to one of the
moments where the economy is not able
to progress forward part of the reason
it may not be progressing forward and
this is the break from the classical
model is that people are just poor and
and so if you stimulate money into the
system now you can get the economy
moving again and so you flatten the
curves both on the upside and the
downside so you're squeezing the
volatility by um going back to your
mowing the lawn analogy you're injecting
energy into the system the the
government is putting this new money
which they're making up out of thin air
into the system in order to get people
feeling like they have money again it is
very much a a man-made manipulation of
the system but this is essentially what
we've been doing since the Great
Depression so uh canes comes up with
this idea in the Great Depression and he
realizes hey wait a second there are
people willing to work there are
factories here that are not at capacity
there are even people willing to buy and
if they just had money then the economy
would start moving again so hey make up
money okay sounds amazing until you put
it together with what you just said and
the fact that this is socializing losses
so all right something bad happens 1929
we have an economic collapse um people
got into a bubble we just got into a bad
situation for a whole host of reasons I
won't go into it right now but anyway
bad thing happens the government then
says oh I'm going to print more money
which is now taking that loss and
spreading it across everybody that's
what happens when you're printing money
because there's no new Goods put into
the system that anybody wants there's no
new labor that has gone into the system
there's only the artifact what should be
the artifact of somebody's time and
energy but it's not it's just made up
and so that ends up diluting across
everybody so you have individual losses
with that are spread across everybody to
the benefit of only people that hold
assets so now you get this massive
bifurcation so I'm very worried about
the hollowing of the middle class and
going back to what exactly creates this
as far as I can tell is this it is this
moment right here where you are
socializing losses across everybody so
the poor the middle class and the
wealthy are all going to have their
buying power reduced but only people
that have assets are going to get
wealthier and so what's crazy is if you
look at the moment that we're living in
right now you have a growth in the upper
class so if you break lower middle upper
you've growth in the upper and you have
growth in the
lower and only the middle class is going
down now at first I was like well that's
kind of exciting you actually have more
people going into the upper class than
you have going into low lower class
amazing right but as you Hollow that out
you get just literal Division and
warfare within a
country all of that makes sense based on
what you just said which is that money
is your time and energy in an abstract
form and it is an affront to human
dignity when you begin messing with that
system yes now laying all that out this
this is why I am really
unnerved by the moment that we're living
in now and we'll I'll try to tie this
all back to um crypto as the potential
Arc that we're all going to get on as
the the rain continues to fall but just
today uh one of my employees came up to
me and was like I'm finally seeing the
data that backs up what I feel which is
I just cannot get she didn't say
American Dream but that was the
punchline I can't afford to buy a house
I see other people making huge amounts
of money and I'm not I'm not able to get
ahead and on paper it seems like I'm
making enough money but I just don't
feel like I'm getting anywhere and so
she isn't positive about the moment that
she's in nor is she optimistic about the
future because they're there are these
cues that people look to buying nice
things having a nice car having a nice
house feeling like you can afford
children feeling like when you retire
it's going to be travel and fancy
restaurants and it isn't going to be me
working until I'm 85 and you know super
unhappy and so when you take that you
take the anger you take the frustration
you take the GameStop of it
all again people yoloing in
people I don't want to say following
sort of culty ideas but like an idea
will gain momentum and they just get on
board with that momentum versus doing
what you said get your spending under
control figure out your risk appetite
deploy that into um an asset class that
you believe is matches your risk
appetite and is going to go somewhere
okay so there's been a
demoralization of
people they don't understand what it
is but
it's not to be too harsh but it's it's
Keynesian
economics it's the
manipulation of the currency it's the
massive inflation to deal with
debt
okay if all of that is true then it
certainly explains
means this Great Migration from trafi
over into crypto does all of that feel
right or do you feel like I'm being
unfair to the current economic situation
to Keynesian economics maybe I don't
understand it I mean the only wrinkle
that I would say is that if the
government is able to borrow money and
build things of real economic value
like okay in the 19
1950s Eisenhower did the in the United
States President US President Eisenhower
did the highway act right and the US
built however many millions of
kilometers of roads which lowered the
cost of
Transportation you know had all this you
basically had the explosion of mass
Market stuff because you could ship
things from coast to coast blah blah
blah in China you had building of uh
hydroelectric dams okay there was some
environmental cost but it brought Elric
electricity to the countryside and so
these are only projects that governments
can can do because they have the ability
to tax uh and spend on a on a aggregate
level so I say the only caveat is if
you're able as a government to build
these types of things that have a rate
of return greater than the debt the
implicit debt cost that you're wasting
on the economy then those are good
things to do the problem is that there
there's there's a finite of projects
like that uh the society that you're
building these things in can only accept
so much of this infrastructure spending
the problem is that governments don't
know when to stop they don't know they
think everything's going to be like the
highway act in the 1950s in the United
States or building free gorgees Dam in
China versus where it is today which is
the building they're building a lot of
stuff that has no value because it'll
never earn back its its
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what are we building today well I mean
I'm saying we as a global Society I
don't know what politicians in the US
are building or China or anywhere I'm
just making sort of a obled statement of
people I don't know there's Biden doing
what's it the inflation reduction act or
some sort of act that they're building
stuff in all these government subsidies
to build things whether it's
electrification of the Grid or whatever
right there's industrial policies for
governments around the world saying we
need to build whatever it is we think is
valuable as a
government sometimes that's rooted in
Market signals other time it's just hey
I want to give a a backhander to my boy
in my uh in my district that's the
problem there is a good there is good
that can be done doing that but
politicians abuse it and we're at the
abusive stage of you know the initial
gains of building some of these pieces
of public infrastructure now we're just
doing stupid [ __ ] Ray alio talks a lot
about debt cycles and the inevitability
of how this just Loops over and over um
is all of this inevitable and do you
think that the migration to
cryptocurrency will be complete and
will'll never be back in a system like
this again or do you think these systems
will coexist so it's definitely not
inevitable uh the great example is
what's happened down in Argentina so the
policy of Argentina is if you've never
been it's a beautiful country [ __ ]
love it down there I've been skiing
there and you know to the the falls and
all kind of stuff it's got a massive
Coastline it's got aable land great food
great wine space for people to live and
yet it's mired in poverty and inflation
because of political choices of
Keynesian taken to you know another
level the her onist um sort of political
culture down there and the people after
I don't know 50 or 60 years of this [ __ ]
are finally fed up let's try something
different and you have President melee
down there who basically campaigned on a
promise of I'm going to cut down
government services close a bunch of
Ministries we're going to balance a
budget and he's already balanced a
budget I think within the first quarter
or two of him being there so we'll see
how the economy reacts so the people do
have an option they can reject what the
elites are telling them oh there's only
one way to do this which is print money
and do c in economics no there's another
way which is you earn them you propose a
taxes we the people agree to pay these
taxes and you the government do what we
told you to do build roads build schools
healthc care police force blah blah blah
and don't do anything else and this
other [ __ ] that that you got that
the government has tacked on to their
responsibilities um and created all
these deficits so there is another
option but it requires people to
understand you know where's a situation
there is there isn't one way to do
things there's another way to do things
there's a way to run the government like
you run your household you make $100 a
month you're only able to spend $100
that's it no nobody runs our household
like that though there's something about
the the culture that we're in right now
because if you look at um debt the
government operates on a debt businesses
are all in debt uh individuals are all
in debt we were at 0% interest rates for
so long money seem free people just like
just took on debt debt debt Deb debt and
so it really requires a cultural shift
more than anything and I worry that what
we're seeing in Argentina is that oh
yeah there is a point at which it is so
brutally painful that people would
rather austerity than continuing to
suffer the way they've been suffering
but are we
anywhere near that point or maybe a
better question can we make the change
without needing that amount of
suffering no because the loss is there
the debt has been taken there's been
unproductive activity and this is the
global thing right Global debt to GDP is
I
think 360% per the World Bank or
something like that and it's been
accelerating over the past two decades
right so there is an implicit dead
weight loss in the system the question
is who Bears the loss now that's
whatever government is tackling what
does everyone government do they push
that loss down onto the people
themselves VI inflation tax but the loss
has to be paid it's not like the
Argentinian situation is without losses
people are going to lose money in
austerity right the question is who
loses the money so if it's I don't like
austerity because deflation destroys the
banking system well in a capitalist
Society what happens when a bank goes
bankrupt the unsecured creditors take
over the bank so put the [ __ ] CEOs of
City Bank and JP Morgan and Goldman
Sachs and Morgan Stanley on the [ __ ]
Street after 2008 and give the bank to
the
depositors that's how Bakery law should
work it didn't work in that situation
they would rather save the managers of
the banks than allow the people who are
unsecured creditors of the bank take it
over and run it how they think it should
be run so I think there is we have we
being a lot of capitalistic systems and
you know even in China they have these
sorts of bankruptcy sort of laws it's
just that nobody wants to use them
because it's going to disenfranchise the
elites we have all the tools available
to us we've thought about these things
we're just unwilling to use them because
of who Bears the pain so that's the
situation but I think when more people
realize the reason why crypto exists
it's crypto is valuable because we're
unwilling to take these losses if all of
a sudden the United States and China and
Europe and Japan said we're going to run
balanced budgets we're going to cut out
75% of all these government
services I would be thinking hard about
whether I want to beong crypto at that
point and maybe I should be something
else because the societal mindset has
changed to something more responsible
and maybe we're not going to see these
massive price gains in crypto because
the Fiat debasement part of the equation
has ceased okay so if that's a scenario
that would cause you to rethink crypto
um if all of those governments were hey
we're going to be like Argentina we're
going to get our stuff together we're
going to run a balanced budget how would
you respond to that in ter terms of your
investment
strategy there's obviously going to be
some short-term a lot of short-term pain
and then you have to see what is bitcoin
or crypto worth really fast will you
explain why why will there be short-term
pain what happens in
austerity when we're not printing like
right now the US government is so in
debt that surely if they were to just
balance the budget immediately without
printing any more money that holders of
government treasuries bonds poof they
would be gone yeah who owns the bonds
rich people at Banks so that's who
suffers if who's making all these you
know the the US Treasury spends about a
trillion dollars on an annualized basis
and interest payments who is getting
these interest payments all the
[ __ ] I saw at the ski resort
who now get five and a half percent on
on their um their cash and I great I own
these treasury bonds getting five and a
half% I've got a good Capital base I'm
going to go enjoy the world right it's
all the rich people who own these
Financial Assets that're Now worth a lot
less in a deflationary environment the
primary one being government
bonds who now the government balance a
budget and guess what all that debt
we're just gonna gone I they can do it
Deb Jubilee it's happened in the past
study the Roman Empire and you know
Greek Solon and certain people like it's
a feature of the society where a leader
comes and says this is not a good idea
for the rich to be renas on the entire
productive capacity of society
let's destroy that asset that they have
and re- equalize system we forget that
this happens but it has happened in the
past and so if we did something akin to
a debt Jubilee who loses rich people and
then at some point if the government
does float another bond with a more
balanced budget then oh that might be a
good investment at a very high rate of
return is that better than owning
something that has made its gains in
Fiat terms I'm not saying that the
Bitcoin network is not valuable I
separate Bitcoin into Tech technology
plus liquidity but if you remove the
liquidity piece what's the technology
worth I don't know it's worth a lot for
sure but removing that liquidity piece
from the equation for crypto probably
means that it corrects quite
substantially and you want to own other
types of Assets Now that you know we
have the society is decided that we're
going to run our public affairs in a
different manner all right really fast
when you say liquidity are you talking
trading volume just the amount of back
and forth credit money credit Fe get
money in so sorry you said uh Bitcoin is
the technology plus liquidity so you
mean if nobody's manipulating Fiat and
printing printing printing then you take
a fundamentally different uh calculation
on the value of Bitcoin correct
interesting liquidity is one of those
words that I've long been like okay I
think I know what people mean by this uh
but clearly not so when you say
liquidity you mean printing yes I mean
how much credit money has been created
by the government in the banking system
and obviously the more Fiat that's
around scarce assets finet assets like
Bitcoin go up in Fiat terms but that's
just a denominator issue it's not
anything the value of Bitcoin itself as
a network of peer-to-peer decentralized
electronic money again that has a value
what is that value I think it's very
valuable is it I don't know what's the
Bitcoin bark down like two trillion or
whatever it is is it that so if we
removed all the money printing we said
you know US dollar the Yen the Yuan you
the euro is now sort of very stable
currencies not going to go up or down
much in terms of their supply do I want
to own crypto anymore maybe not at this
price maybe there's something else I'd
rather own maybe I want to own a power
plant in a new productive country where
the people feel happy and engaged and
want to do productive things maybe I
want to own something different so
that's that's just the
mental you know construct that I'm W
under because the system will change we
as you said there is this anger we have
global conflict spreading up around the
world we are not going to be in this
Keynesian system in the next 40 or 50
years there will be a different system I
don't know what it is it could be that
the people all wake up and they say this
is not for me we're going to create a
more Equitable system or they create
something even more [ __ ] up than the
one we're in today I don't know but
we're just going to change okay uh a
couple questions one did Argentina
default on their debts they have
defaulted multiple times on on their
peso dollar like you could probably
write a whole university thesis on the
history of Argentinian mon monetary
policy I mean specifically since melee
took office is that part of his strategy
like hey debt Jubilee I'm not sure okay
I'd be very curious to know that um so
okay one possible way for this to end is
you have an Argentinian solution uh the
country wakes up they realize hey I'm
not willing to suffer like this anymore
it's a bunch of Rich [ __ ] that are
controlling the place we have all these
um programs to take care of people but
we don't actually have the money and so
we've inflated our currency into
meaninglessness um this is dumb so let's
elect somebody let's take our lumps
austerity measures the system's not
really working anyway so I imagine to
some extent that probably even the
wealthy feel like they're on such
unstable ground they've probably long
ago fled to dollars or something like
that anyway if they have the wherewithal
to do it uh we this guy he comes in
literally with a chainsaw for people
that haven't seen the footage it is
hilarious uh and he just cuts Cuts Cuts
removing entire um portions of the
government entire
departments uh okay so that's one way to
do it um the other way to do it is war
why does this why does the
debt inflation through money
printing why does that lead to this
changing dynamic between countries what
I I can't mentally track I get it I've
seen it I know the data but I don't
understand why that happens so when
you're printing money you're inducing
economic activity that's unnatural so
you're producing stuff that you don't
you can't sell so what is you know what
I'm most wars about it's I have all this
excess production I have people that
need to work because that's how I stay
in power because they have a job and
money and whatever they have they're
producing all this stuff I need someone
to sell it to so if you want to think
back to sort of World War I World War II
you had the major Colonial Powers each
had their own home Market us has you
know Central and South America Britain
had the Commonwealth um French had the
West Indies and sort of parts of Africa
and Germany was like Hey I'm a I'm a
white Imperial power I deserve I deserve
some colonies too rather than going into
Africa my Colony should Russia we read
what Hitler wrote he's writing about
taking the Russian land and creating
space for the Russian people for the for
the German people that's why he did the
dumb thing of attacking Russia during
the winter didn't learn his lesson from
Napoleon um the Japanese wanted their
colon they thought they were a powerful
colonizer as well and China specifically
Manchuria would be their sphere of
colonial projection and their Market
would be southeast Asia and as you know
the Western Allied Powers challenged
that assertion that Germany and Japan
could have these Colonial spheres of
trading influence because they also had
overproduction as well remember coming
out of the Great Depression what was the
problem too much production nowhere to
put it deflation of assets everybody
produced too much [ __ ] they needed to
sell it somewhere so that was a Genesis
of all these of the world wars now what
do we have today CH has exhausted its
ability to build roads pump a property
bubble now they're saying we need to we
need to manufacture more stuff well so
does America they need to manufacture
more stuff so does Europe they need to
manufactur more stuff why is Europe all
pissed off at China right now because
China's the largest Auto exporter in the
world surpassing Germany and Japan and
they like oh [ __ ] there goes one the one
industry where we were kicking ass which
was high-end luxury cars and your German
and French Vehicles China's beating us
at this like hand over hand over foot so
everybody producing stuff because
they're they're just printing money say
go to work make stuff and then it's like
okay where do we sell it oh we need to
sell our Goods in China Chinese to sell
their goods in America well nobody wants
to open up their Turf to others because
they need to sell stuff not to buy
others and so that's why when you print
this money and you have all this
uneconomic activity happening the drive
to sell your goods in other markets is
what go is what prepares the road to war
oh you're not going to let me sell this
particular type of product in you know
this country well [ __ ] you we're going
to war and I'm going to make sure that
you can't sell your stuff into into my
turf and that is what we're gearing up
towards as all the major economic blocks
like okay we need to keep people in
their jobs so we're going to print the
money they're going to make stuff and
now where do we sell
it that is very fascinating it certainly
is not the only reason that we go to war
but that is a very good explan for how
when the
war's basic cause is economic or when
when the debt begins to get out of hand
why this ends up marching us towards war
that makes a lot of sense do you see a
way to unwind this so
once it's is it austerity or War are
those really the two options or do you
see us being able to really in In This
Moment use Bitcoin as the um Arc that
allows us to avoid either of those
catastrophic floods crypto is a way for
you to
sidestep some of the negative impacts of
austerity and austerity is not uniformly
distributed in terms of its pain right
the people who have the most pain are
those who have the most assets because
the cash flows are depreciated under
austerity there's no more government
printing press that's making these
things go up in value so if you you know
did the thing that what you told to do
get on the hamster whe work your ass off
and you were able to through hard work
build up a Fiat Nest dig and you
recognize that this situation is
untenable in terms of you know a very
small size of the population getting
very very wealthy while everyone else is
suffering then it behooves you to get
out of those Fiat Assets Now previously
there wasn't really an easy way to do
that but now we have crypto so now if
you have Fiat assets that are you know
you're saving vehicles or even just the
little bit of Fiat money that you're
able to
save you can now sidestep you can all
you can vote for austerity to rebuild
your your Society into a more equ
Equitable situation but at the same time
preserve the little bit of wealth that
you've able been able to accumulate in
the Fiat system by porting it over to
crypto and then you know once things
have reset then re-evaluating okay well
maybe I am okay with owning a Government
Bond that yields 10% if the economy is
growing at 5% that's a great return for
me I don't need to have this crypto
thing maybe it's too volatile for me you
maybe I lost a little bit of money
trading some particular coin I just want
to own some sort of bond in a government
that I believe in and respect cool now
you know you're getting paid to take
that risk versus now you're not getting
paid appropriately to take that
risk this is a really interesting moment
that we live in uh there so history
doesn't repeat at
Rhymes when you look back I think Ray
alio has done such a good job of
breaking this down how the the debt
cycle loops and how going back 500 years
you see the rise and fall of Empires
that they roughly last 150ish years um
that the sequence of events is such that
you have a debt Jubilee I mean I guess
it doesn't start with a debt Jubilee but
every cycle will will um repeat with
that and because you said you um use
that as a way to reset to get a more
equit
situation but the reality is it's only
going to be Equitable for a while
because once you're dealing in a world
where people clip coins which is the OG
way of inflating money or the current
way which is you literally just you have
the FED uh buy assets from the
government um you're inflating the money
supply you're reducing what you reduce
its purchasing
power that it is inevitable if you allow
that that people will get themselves out
of trouble
because if people are in pain they're
going to freak out they're going to lash
out at the government they're going to
say I want you to protect me which
um it's predictable so you know that
people are going to do that so you print
money so that you can get reelected so
as long as people have to get reelected
and one of the ways to get reelected is
to print money people are going to do
that and so you end up back in this um
cycle the fascinating thing is that
it it only comes down to any one
person's individual lifetime that's all
they know and that's all they really
care about and so if you can push this
off 150 years it you really don't care
and it begins to Loop however we are
living through a technological
Revolution right now that I think is
causing a rapid Divergence between the
generations which caused them to have
very different World Views and so you
have
this I'll call it a bifurcation but I
really think it's it's more of a
shattering but just for Simplicity sake
I'll say a bifurcation between people
who believe in the traditional system
because they know it they're used to it
it's the devil you know and then people
that believe in and the way I think
about it is will tomorrow be more
digital than today if yes why would I
ever think that money wouldn't become
digitized and so it just
for me as somebody who breaks on the
digital side when I looked at crypto I
was like oh yeah that it makes sense to
me that isn't a a fake asset or whatever
people call it magic internet money it's
all of money is simply a narrative we
all simply decide to agree that oh gold
has value because it's scarce the paper
money has value because the government
says that it does um crypto has money
because there's you Bitcoin there's only
21 million of it and that's it and so we
all agree that that that's the thing and
so so I will be very interested to see
as as we March
towards adopting cryptocurrency if we
really can take that as this off-ramp
that will avoid Us ending up in a hot
War I just I don't know that governments
will allow it to
happen what do you think about that
how Stern SL violent do you think the
government's response is going to be
will they control it through ETFs and so
same as it ever was or will they say uh
we're not going to allow this and and
find a way to put Capital controls on
it the smart governments will do the ETF
route which is allow the traditional
trafi people to give you a crypto
derivative like a Bitcoin ETF that's the
smart way to do it because it's the
nonviolent way to do and people think
that they've escaped this financial
apocalypse but not really they've only
just given their money to Black Rock and
the time in which they actually want to
use Bitcoin for what it's there for
which is to centralize money moving it
around 247 between whoever they feel
like they'll be told no if you want to
get out of the ETF you must sell it back
for Fiat and then do with your money
what you please right you don't own
Bitcoin people think they do that's the
best way to do it the worst way to do it
is to go out and ban it because when you
ban something as a government especially
in a digital age where people have
information at their at their
fingertips then they go oh well maybe
there's something here why is the
government telling me I can't do it
maybe I should read a little bit more
about this and then they just then they
decide oh the government is telling me I
shouldn't do it because it's not in
their interest then I'm going to do it
anyways because you've banned it you've
given it air time you've proven the
point that all everyone is that everyone
on the crypto ecosystem has been saying
for years which is the government
doesn't have your best interest at heart
that's why you're there Banning your
economic freedom and then you create the
demand for the thing and people will get
it
anyways right um so if you think about
you know the common Narrative of like
very you know authoritarian governments
in the west like oh China just does
whatever they feel like no bitcoin's not
even banned in China China bans a lot of
things have not banned Bitcoin there are
not it's hard to trade it um on sure in
China but is not ban did ban it because
no Bitcoin is not banned you can own
Bitcoin as a Chinese person um they've
shut down the it uh you can't mine it
and as a exchange the large exchanges no
longer offer a Bitcoin REM andb trading
pair but you can still trade at OTC and
you can can still own it because you
know Chinese government's smart they
know if I ban something then Chinese
people will find it valuable because the
government told me I can't do it now
that is why if you know the government
and the elites want to stay in sort of
this financial position the ETF is the
best thing that they can do because
people believe that they've achieved
Financial Freedom when they actually
have just handed over fees to the same
people who have been [ __ ] them for
the past 80 years anyways so that is the
smart thing to do but ultimately I think
that that attitude is very defeatist if
you do believe that a government is a
representative body of the will of the
people and you just default to saying
that it can never change because the
Elites in charge want it to stay that
way well then nothing will ever change
and that's you know that's a lot that's
a big detriment you know deriding
argument that a lot of people give
whether they're a boomer or somebody
who's much younger oh Bitcoin is really
good I understand like decentralize
money sound money you know inflation
resistant blah blah blah great but oh
but the elites want to let let it happen
so I'm not going to own Bitcoin because
the people in power are threatened
they're not going to let it survive well
[ __ ] that buy some Bitcoin tell your
friend to buy some Bitcoin shut up from
the rooftops create a movement be part
of it try to change things so I I think
that's a very defeatist attitude and if
that's the attitude that everyone wants
to have then you deserve to be a [ __ ]
death surf what do you really think come
on Arthur say something strong come on
man stop with this wishy-washy [ __ ]
uh yeah that's uh that's very on point I
think um I maybe have a little more
empathy for
uh here here's what I really think I
think nuanced ideas are extremely
difficult I think the government is
extremely powerful staring down the
barrel of the government um and deciding
that you're going to stand up to them I
just do not fault the average person for
not being willing to do that so I have
deep empathy for people who either a
don't understand it don't want to spend
their time wrapping their head around it
or if they do believe as as I quite
frankly do that at some point and
honestly the ETFs maybe give me a little
bit of comfort because I'm like okay
that that gives them a way that and
other centralized exchanges like
coinbase give them a way to to grab it
to to do a thing with it right to feel
like they have control and then people
that are sort of hey I would at least
like to hedge my bets um you know when
you think about uh the Second Amendment
not to get into this debate but when you
think about the idea behind that was hey
the government may go tyrannical at some
point and you may need to be able to
defend
yourself that I think people lose sight
of that and they think that oh a gun is
you know for a home invasion or whatever
sure that too yes but like the original
intention was the government may turn on
you and you need to be able to protect
yourself and that America anyway was set
up with with that in mind like we're
putting all these uh balances of power
because governments tend towards tyranny
and so you need a way to protect so
anyway that having Bitcoin is a bit like
the the financial equivalent of the
Second Amendment I have the right to
maintain my own money I have the right
to control it I don't have to I can keep
it in a centralized system because good
Lord it is so easy to lose your crypto
if you are not very careful clicking on
an errant link for getting your uh seed
phrase I mean just woof uh it does make
me tense on that side as well but at at
least I know that I have the right it's
interesting and I thank you for letting
me think through this stuff in real time
um but that is why I find myself so
drawn to this is okay we have a broken
system that is an affront to human
dignity using your words uh because of
the way that it can be
inflated I think that people I think the
memes law says that you should just be
able to tell somebody save your money
and you're going to be fine I know that
we don't necessarily agree on that but
that feels really true to me that that
should just be a right that that no one
should be able to take your money and
spread it across everybody else I have a
feeling that's going to be one of the
more controversial things that I say
today um just trying to predict the
comments but so you start putting that
together and you give me the Second
Amendment of of financials and now I can
take custody of my own money uh I don't
th