Kind: captions
Language: en
let me ask the movie Leave the World
Behind which was produced by the Obamas
paints a pretty distressing picture of
how you could turn America against
itself in Three Easy Steps step three
being civil war how easy do you think it
is in reality to destabilize the us or
any other major country I love that you
start with this question and I love that
you didn't give me any hints that you
were going to start with this question
cuz I recently watched Leave the World
Behind and I thought it was just a
brilliant piece of The Human Experience
right first of all to answer your
question directly destabilizing the
United States would be very difficult
because at the end of the day the US is
a we are a strong unifying culture when
we are attacked it supersedes all other
things that's that we saw that with 911
we saw it in the Vietnam War we saw it
time and time again right when we are
act it unifies us that's not like that's
not the same cultural response every
country has so if we were to see a large
scale hack if TVs were to suddenly go
down radios were to suddenly go down if
the whole network and infrastructure
started to fall apart if Tesla started
self-driving themselves and blocking
roads the last thing we would do is
start killing each other if anything we
would all unify because at our core we
are a fighting culture it's one of our
biggest flaws and one of our biggest
strengths we are a Waring culture here
in the United States now that said the
the part of the of the movie that to me
was so preent was that instead of us
having one
enemy we faced a
Unity a Unity force of enemies that were
all collaborating and coordinating the
attack together so that's what the
movie's premise was right what if it
wasn't one bad guy what if it was an
amalgam of people who don't like you
essentially what if 10 bullies attacked
you instead of one bully I think that is
getting to the heart of What conflict
really looks like now and What conflict
will look like for the United States for
the Next Generation tell me more about
that I've heard you talk about this
you've said something that unfortunately
uh Rings a little too true to me which
is that World War II has already begun
uh if that's true it certainly doesn't
feel like it so um what do you mean by
that what does world what do you think
World War II will
or does look like so it's interesting
that you say that because when when I
hear people say it doesn't feel like
World War I has
started World War II when it started
also didn't feel like World War II had
started for America if you recall
America didn't get involved in World War
II until after all of Europe had
basically been ingested by the Nazi
party Only After Japan attacked Pearl
Harbor did World War II start being felt
by Americans World War II is very
similar what we're seeing right now is a
a wh scale attack on American resources
the US dollar uh American influence
American
dominance and any war is really about
bringing your bringing your opponent
down in terms of influence and power and
at the same time increasing your own
influence and power what World War II
where World War III looks different than
World War II is that World War III is
being fought through these proxy wars
Third Country battles often times poor
or impoverished battles that are being
bankrolled by large world leaders if you
look at Libya if you look at Syria if
you look at Afghanistan if you look at
Yemen all these fit the proxy war model
and those are just major conflicts there
are minor conflicts happening all over
Asia Latin America and South America or
Latin America and uh and Africa that
show even more active involvement by the
United States the Russians the Chinese
uh North and South Koreans uh Turks
Germans waging conflict through third
countries all over the planet and what
are they fighting for what makes it
worthwhile for the United States to
engage in a in a conflict against the
houthis and Yemen what makes it worth it
for Iran to invest in the same conflict
the reason it's a good investment is
because they are increasing their own
influence and power without risking
their own Nationals or without risking
their own military successes or failures
it's it's easier to fund a civil war
from outside than it is to uh engage in
what's known as interstate War which is
when your nation state invades another
nation state like we're seeing with
Russia and Ukraine okay Civil War uh
this is a it's the idea that really
stood out to me in the movie Leave the
World Behind uh it's something I've
thought a lot about my audience has
heard me talk at nauseum about Ray
Delio's growing um percentage prediction
of Civil War here in the US it's
interesting that you call us a Waring
culture that we're very good at uniting
because we are also proving that we're
very good at splitting almost exactly
right down the middle which I have a
whole thesis about which maybe we'll get
into um but while I agree with you that
I think the movie Leave the World Behind
is just exceptionally unrealistic in
terms of it's like oh first isolation
and just oh just take out all their
Communications no big deal uh that would
be brutally difficult and of course if
somebody could they would have
already but it it's one of those where
from a movie perspective the suspension
of disbelief to point out a human truth
I think is really precious I don't think
it is accidental that the Obamas are
behind this somebody that's been in the
War Room somebody that really
understands uh what the darker side of
human nature can look like when
um nudged in the right direction and the
it's it's very theatrical I do not want
anybody to think I'm saying hey that's a
documentary on how this will go very
much not but once you grant them that
then you can look at okay when a country
is divided when people turn on
themselves it's the ultimate um
destabilizing factor and when I look at
less so honestly with Russia and Ukraine
which may be my ignorance but I don't
think so very much so with Israel and
Ham or Israel and Palestine depending on
how you want to think about it that one
to me feels like they have an anchoring
ideology which makes it effectively
impossible for them to get along and by
leveraging that you get some really dire
consequences and so we're seeing that
play out in real life and that to me is
what they're playing with in the movie
Leave the World Behind is okay just
grant me that they are divided and now
what does it look like once people begin
turning on each other tapping into the
tribalism tapping into this sense of
wanting to protect you and yours and
that is an algorithm running in the
human animal and so when you for people
that haven't seen you before which would
be shocking at this point uh but with
your background as a CIA agent
um how do you tap into that like when I
think about the velocity of information
created by social media my original
intro for this episode that I wrote was
that the internet really changed
everything because it it allows human
psychology to play out in a different
way and the way that the internet allows
human psychology to play out is is it is
so easy to confuse people it is so easy
to confuse people and if I'm looking at
forget the movie if I'm looking at
what's really happening I'm not even
saying it's coordinated I'm just saying
that the velocity of information that
comes across your social feed where you
have the algorithm from an AI
perspective colliding with the AI that
runs the human any individual human
yours is going to be different than the
next person but there's enough
similarity that we can really get some
flywheels going but the velocity of
information makes it very easy to
confuse people because people are
extraordinarily bad at understanding a
position from a nuanced place and so if
you were going to analyze the situation
that we're in now where you've got
someone like rello who has a lot of
credibility in my opinion saying okay uh
likelihood of civil war is going up
youve got your own take that World War
III is potentially already happening
that this is a proxy battle we've got
things popping off in the Middle East
we've got things popping off in Russia
um how do we pour fuel on a fire that's
already burning by confusing people with
fast information so what's really
interesting is is you're exactly right
that people get confused easily and
you're exactly right that velocity of
information is a fact factor in that
confusion where I would Challenge and I
don't think you were saying this
outright but I I want to make sure that
nobody misunderstands that velocity of
information and confusion existed long
before the internet long before social
media you don't I I will potentially
take exception to that and I will say
that the velocity of information that
you could get before would come from a
narrow band of sources correct and now
the velocity of information not only is
a 100 times a thousand times faster it
is coming from a thousand times more
sources and so it does feel unique this
moment I don't disagree with you yeah I
agree with you in terms of volume I it's
velocity that I'm focusing on right
volume absolutely we have more
information now in more channels and
more Avenues than ever before but think
about you think about our parents our
parents used to wait every day for the
morning newspaper and for the 5:00 news
I remember my dad rushing home for the
5:00 news
why because those two touch points were
essentially the only time they had in an
entire day to find out what was going on
anywhere else so when that 60-page
newspaper landed on the doorstep on
Sunday morning that was that was
everything that was the Holy Grail for
news for the week so if you think about
it in terms of velocity as fast as you
could read through those 60 Pages you
got all your new information everything
challenged what you previously knew and
everything set the stage for what you
were going to assume until the next
Sunday paper or until the next Monday
local paper same thing with the 5:00 or
6:00 news you you waited for that moment
and whatever update came in that 30
minute or 1 hour cycle became your
foundation of Truth for the next 24
hours we live in a world now where the
volume and the velocity combine so now
what you learn this second literally
changes when your feed refreshes half a
second later right so the the volume so
different and the velocity and the
volume combined exacerbate the what what
I think you correctly call the confusion
of information this is another element
when you ask me how I see this as a CIA
officer one of the core things that
people don't understand is that in an in
in a uh covert influence
campaign I mean that's for a CIA officer
covert influence is a tactical rule book
it's a it's a recipe here's how you make
it you crack two eggs you take two cups
of sugar and you have and you melt some
butter that's how you make a Cake cover
influence campaign has three parts one
of those parts is simply creating
information that that contradicts other
information that exists not by creating
something new but by exacerbating
something that's already
believed so you just take two existing
narratives and you pour fuel on one of
those narratives just to make it burn
and then as conflict erupts between
these two narratives then you pour fuel
on the other narrative just to keep the
fire going and that's how you start a
covert influence campaign the goal of
covert influence is not to get people to
believe in something it's to get them to
get confused by everything so that you
can create General chaos because chaos
degrades the ability for unification
that's the real goal behind covert
influence how real is the threat of
covert influence it's not even a it's
not even a threat it's a guarantee it's
happening all the time it's happening
everywhere around us all the time so
organized organized disorganized
intentional unintentional statun
transnational government sponsored us
sponsored cover influence is happening
everywhere all the
time in 2016 I wasn't paying attention
to it I'll be honest I was just building
building building building
and uh I was very sort of caught off
guard in that moment of a sense of oh
wow like even whether or not Russia was
actually engaging in trying to influence
the election I had never considered that
somebody would try to influence the
election and so it made me go wait a
second like that's actually again
whether true or not it's a plausible it
it might even be smart to think about
how government agencies are using PR or
propaganda however you want to look at
it to influence what people think uh and
then on the back of all this I start
reading about history and the more I
read about history the more I get really
concerned about how things can and do go
off the rails in the most violent
horrifying ways possible and all of a
sudden it felt important to pay
attention not necessarily to be overly
paranoid and the last thing I want to do
is beat the drum of like hey everybody
need to panic no one should Panic right
but as you will have heard in my intro
to this episode if you want to win the
game of life you're going to need to pay
attention to the players and the pieces
and the the real essence of the game
that's being played what I would love is
for you to walk out using this moment
that we're in where we're building
towards an election
and there's at a minimum going to be um
just very straightforward simple desire
to influence the voting public to voting
for a given candidate let's even just
assume it's all above board it's no
one's trying to be um it's not a foreign
government it's just people are going to
try to sway your way of thinking how can
people anchor themselves to something so
that they can think through this problem
well you and I talked about this last
time we were together that to me is is
the whole shtick whether you want to a
good parent whether you want to be a
good uh partner in a relationship
whether you want to be a a great
entrepreneur you must be able to Think
Through novel problems well how so one
of the things I I always get excited
about and discouraged by is that your
questions are so good and there's so
many elements inside each question that
we could pick apart so like with what
you just said with with what you just
asked about how do we handle this well
prior to that you started talking about
kind of becoming aware of influence in
2016 um prior to that you mentioned uh
Palestine and Hamas
interchangeably right what I see is in
the question you actually start to
show how difficult it is to splice these
things apart Hamas and Palestine are two
totally different
things the government of Hamas and the
terrorist militant group of the alkim
Brigade within Hamas is completely
different than the Palestinian people
the Palestinian Authority the fat
government right those are all but all
of those are part of Palestine so just
to put in in the context of where I'm
steering us uh so trying to understand
how to think through a problem well
which we are all faced with you you have
two options put your head down you will
be used as a pawn pick your head up pay
attention you can hopefully navigate
this well what I hear you saying is you
have to accurately map out what is
really happening so in this case it's
and I wasn't trying to say that they're
indistinguishable what I was trying to
say is some people will talk about Hamas
other people will talk about Palestine
so however you want to think about that
right um but getting getting an
understanding of what what is actually
happening or an accurate assessment of
the players the pieces is how I
typically refer to it is that where
you're going like you just have to
really map the terrain yeah well that's
where I'm starting from that's where I'm
starting from for sure because even when
you talk about the 2016 elections and
how the whole world woke up to the fact
that influence was happening in
2016 but nobody seems to ask the
question of if we caught it in 2016 how
many previous elections were it happened
that we didn't catch it and why would we
ever think that any of our elections
were ever safe from cover influence just
because we didn't have social media just
because Facebook wasn't a giant in 2008
why do we think it we didn't also
experience something then too so the the
starting point to your to answer your
question question the starting point is
to understand that emotional decision
making is what the human brain wants to
do it wants to make emotional decisions
because emotional decisions require less
cognitive ability less like less
calories less time it's so much easier
to just fall back on what you were
conditioned as a kid to believe what you
have experienced as an adult what your
opinions are what your friends say it's
just the easiest fastest way to make a
decision the brain is inherently very
conservative of its energy we often joke
that the brain is lazy so the brain just
jumps to conclusions and when you give
it a way of jumping to a conclusion it
likes that it's like muscle memory I'm a
Christian therefore I'm pro-life so
anytime you bring up anything Christian
I'm going to say pro-life the brain
loves that because it saves all this
analysis and contextualizing and
synthesis and synthesis and information
vetting it it saves itself all that
trouble by just jumping to a conclusion
so you see information is presented to
you in what form in a way that triggers
an emotional
response even to your point about the
whole like Palestine and Hamas are
presented in a way where it's hard to
distinguish the difference between the
two I completely agree the reason they
are presented that way is to make it
easy for the human brain in the target
audience to LEAP to the conclusion that
Palestine is Hamas Hamas is Palestine
they are the same which makes everything
happening in Israel right now under the
rubric of terrorism it's if that's the
narrative you want to portray it's easy
to get there when you don't
differentiate when you don't use
subtlety and Nuance to explain your
information as soon as you start to dig
into the information as soon as you
start to map the battlefield you start
to see all the changes in the terrain
you start to see the tree line you start
to see the sand pits you start to see
the the areas that are high ground and
highest ground and how they're different
from the low ground and the lowest
ground right so it takes that level of
awareness to be able to really land on a
meaningful decision so the first thing
to understand is that we decide you me
the smartest people the dumbest
people it's it's irrelevant of your your
race age Creed or education level we all
Pink Matter brain matter decide first
and easily through emotions through an
emotional lens it's sometimes called
emotional
reasoning emotion and reasoning are two
different things but when you reason
through a lens of emotion it's a
cognitive distortion that we call
emotional
reasoning understanding that is kind of
the first step yeah no doubt uh so I
have a big bumper sticker that I try to
get people to take in for this very
reason so I agree uh you have to map the
train you have to understand what's
actually going on you have to distrust
yourself that's my bumper that's a great
bumper sticker because um you can't make
decisions without emotions so literally
if you selectively damage the area of
the brain that's in charge of emotions
people can give you all the reasons why
fish is better than beef and then they
still in the end they can't make a
decision because without the ability to
process emotion to push in One Direction
or another you you literally I don't
mean this like as an analogy you
literally can't make a decision without
emotion the bad news is that your
emotions are influenced by your friend
frame of reference so everything that
happened to you from the time you were a
little kid whatever until today like all
of it creates the context that will
trigger an emotion now the problem is
the emotion to your point makes a
decision feel obvious and so you
context plus the whatever happens
creates emotion emotion makes one
decision obvious over the other but that
doesn't mean it's the quote unquote
right decision um okay so you have the
trrain you have understand the way the
Pink Matter uh is working that you're
going to be making these decisions
emotionally what what else goes into
this remember I'm trying to get people
to your 2024 for sure is going to be
brutal uh because this is an election
year here in the US because there are
multiple Wars going on but just in
general if you can anchor yourself and
think well through problems that you
haven't seen before you're going to do
far better in life um so that is the
umbrella under which I asked the
question after you map the battlefield I
mean to use a military parallel after
you map the battlefield the next thing
you need to do is take in all Source
intelligence all Source intelligence
means you're accepting information from
all sources how do you make sure you're
not taking in biased sources since every
source is probably biased so because
every source is biased that's the
Assumption you have to have about every
source so the important thing is we're
all accustomed to taking in certain
trusted sources mom dad wife husband
sisters brothers co-workers whatever it
might be maybe your trusted source of CN
maybe your trusted source is Fox News
maybe your trusted source is BBC maybe
your trusted source is AP we all have
our trusted
sources but those trusted sources are
all biased in some way whether it's a
lean or a
full-blown Wing we don't know but
everything's biased in some way so the
only way to offset the bias is to take
in information from the opposite
bias now if you've ever been a Boy Scout
if you've ever done anything in like
Land Navigation you can always identify
where you are located by doing something
called a reverse aouth casting a reverse
asouth have you ever heard of this hell
is that so when you look on a compass
and you point the compass at where
you're trying to go you're creating an
aouth a
direction in Reverse if you're trying to
find out where you are you can find a
landmark a tall mountain uh a building a
Cathedral a city whatever else it might
be aim your compass at the Landmark and
now casting the reverse Direction you
know where you are in comparison to The
Landmark if you do that with two
landmarks those two landmarks have an
intersection point and now you know your
true
location so a reverse asmith in the
information space means you listen to
left leaning news but then you also
listen to right leaning news where they
say the same thing
you have a high confidence that it's
accurate where they say everything else
doesn't necessarily mean either side is
wrong it's just starting to show you
their bias but what you have confidence
in is where they
agree if you do that enough times you
start to have a foundation of truth I
know this to be true I have high
confidence that this is true because
left leaning and right leaning news
sources are saying this is happening but
then everything around it what we would
call the fog of War everything around it
is unknown it's wrapped in fog it hasn't
been discovered yet it hasn't been
reported yet it hasn't been stress
tested or vetted yet so it's a foggier
area it's an area of of missing
information Vice your small pond or your
small island of known information and as
it's it's difficult for most people to
actually put it into practice because it
slows the world down why does it slow
the world down because your two biggest
enemies are Velocity and volume velocity
and volume of information lead to
confusion so if you can decrease the
volume and slow down the speed to
identify the true facts guess what
you're fighting against the very same
confusion you're trying to overcome
right a big part of the reason that
Intel failures happen a big part of the
reason why Intel flaps and Intel
mistakes happen is because professional
Intelligence Officers try to slow things
down and reduce the volume volume in
terms of noise but also volume in terms
of mass
to find the true facts that we can make
something meaningful out of well
sometimes in all the volume and all the
speed nuggets of intelligence that are
super relevant find their way in but you
don't see them because they're hidden in
the noise that's how 911 happened in
many ways that's how October 7th
happened in Israel right nuggets were
hidden in the noise and unfortunately we
didn't learn about that until after we
had the time to do a post analysis and
look back on what happened mm
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I think it was sunzu that said um all of
war is deception so I also have to
imagine that within the noise there are
a lot of um nuggets that are placed
erroneously on purpose trying to point
you in a completely different direction
okay one thing is that the recipe for
you or is there more it's a great so I
would say the recipe is to to get a
sense of the battlefield take in all
sorts intelligence and then actually
synthesize size in addition to analyze
the information analyzing me yeah okay I
think you're about to do what I was
going to ask analyzing the information
means you take it in and you start to
cross reference it to see where it
aligns yep that's analyzing the
disagreeing things where they overlap
right and then are you seeing Trends
right that's all part of analysis
synthesis then means that you take open
gaps open question marks and you start
to actively take steps to fill in those
questions to fill in those missing spots
so if you think of it an analysis is
passive analysis is just taking what you
find taking what you get and then
creating a a document or a a grid that
has gaps in it and then you pass it to
somebody and say Here's my analysis we
know these three things we don't know
these three things synthesis is we know
these three things we don't know these
three things but here's how we will find
the answer to these other these other
missing spots when you and I start to
synthesize the information that we have
it starts to give us a active tool that
we can use to collect information we can
go to people that we trust people that
that we like talking to people that we
know are bigger thinkers or look beyond
the noise and we can start asking them
their opinions you get to do this every
day on your show you get to ask big
questions of of people that are Advanced
thinkers and you get to inform your own
opinion every step of the way you are
synthesizing every step of the way every
time you have one of these interviews
people who watch you are doing the same
thing they're synthesizing through you
they have gaps they want those gaps
filled they trust you to help them fill
those gaps but you're not the only
source they have other people that they
also learn from other people that they
also follow the problem with our world
the problem with the United States in
many ways in my opinion is a lack not of
analysis it's a lack of synthesis people
accept the gaps and they assume what's
happening in the Gap instead of actively
trying to solve the question of what's
happening in the
Gap that's really interesting and I
think super important and again
abstracting it for people it does not
matter what problem you were trying to
think through whether it's Israel Hamas
whether it is uh Ukraine Russia correct
being a better parent getting a
promotion starting a business whatever
uh it's all going to run the same thing
the the important part for me so I use
slightly different vernacular to
describe exactly the same thing so for
me it's frame of reference getting
people to understand that you have a
frame of reference you see the world in
a certain way you are a wash in biases
you're a wash in certain emotions that
you have to things so the way I explain
it to an entrepreneur is your job as a
CEO is the world is a bunch of dots to
your point it's data analysis you're
getting a bunch of data in but it
doesn't actually tell a story by itself
you have to connect those dots now much
like when we look up into the night sky
for Millennia people saw animals and
humans and all kinds of things in the
shapes of the Stars it's not really
there right those are just dots but we
cannot help but from our frame of
reference of being a human and the
things that we know overlay things onto
those patterns in the same way that
you'll see a dog in the clouds or the
shape of England which has happened to
me many times because my wife happens to
be from the UK so uh we will begin to
see patterns in the dots and as a
thinker again regardless of what you're
aiming at thinking at that's your job
your job is to connect the dots but you
have to be hyperaware that emotions will
make dots feel like they connect that
don't actually connect
and if you don't distrust yourself
you'll be like oh yeah that's a dog's
face oh yeah that's whatever Aries
pulling back a bow and arrow in the sky
and people just yeah 100% that's what it
is I I see the picture in the dots and
to think through a novel problem well
what you have to do is really step back
and go cool I see a picture in this I
really have a strong take on what this
is but I know better I cannot trust my
emotions they are probably making dots
feel like they connect that don't
connect I need to step back because you
have to have that certainty to move
forward right otherwise you just be
forever analysis paralysis so I need a
narrative that allows me to move forward
but I need to also occasionally check in
and be like I need to welcome disc
confirming evidence because and this is
a part we haven't talked about yet that
I think is insanely important and dear
anybody listening that wants to think
well through a problem you must have a
goal first yeah like for me the the way
I think about when I get invited to be
on a podcast is no one can make me say
something I don't believe is true and so
M go on any podcast like the only thing
they can hope to do is like really like
snip snip snip and like rearrange things
in an order um I am admittedly easy to
make sound crazy out of context but if
somebody watches the whole thing like
it's GNA it's going to be there so
understanding that okay um I can go
listen to things that I think are
outright lunacy that you know whether
it's far right far left whatever I it's
not going to poison my mind to hear it
to your point it's help me triangulate
when I understand where people disagree
what they're fighting over and then that
helps me refine the way that I'm
connecting the dots so that I can
hopefully get closer and closer to the
truth but the truth is my goal now why
the truth how did the truth become my
Northstar when I'm looking at something
like this because to me the truth has
utility which completely reveals who I
am and what I'm about I'm about
something being useful now then it begs
a question useful what way and I think
it is important to Define that and I
think people should have goals that are
honorable to me the best I can do and if
somebody has a better answer I'm super
here for it but the best I can do so far
is to say all humans ought value
judgment entirely all humans ought to
strive to maximize human flourishing and
minimize human suffering as much as
possible I I don't have a better one
than that that's clearly not perfect The
Human Experience does not seem to be
perfect but at least if you're doing
that like your real aim is hey as much
as I can I'm going to try to alleviate
human suffering I'm going to try to
elevate people we can get into
definitions of what that stuff is about
I think it's beyond the scope of what
we're saying now but what I'm trying to
get people to understand is you have to
have a goal there needs to be a thing
that you can state that you are steering
towards so that as you redraw your dots
you're constantly asking what is more
true in that when I look at this problem
with this particular connection of dots
it allows me to more accurately predict
the outcome of my actions once you can
predict the outcome of your actions if I
do this I will get this outcome that to
me tells me that you're closer to ground
truth that's why as we learn more about
physics we're able to do more things so
Newtonian physics first gave us the
ability to land on the moon but it
didn't give us the ability to do GPS for
that we needed einan physics so it's
understanding that o as we get closer to
truth and even Einstein said well we
still don't fully understand it and as
we do we'll be able to do more things
whether that's harnessing the power of
an entire sun or an entire galaxy
whatever like as we understand physics
better we will be able to do those
things so that's that is a very tangible
example of the modern world was born out
of us getting closer to ground truth now
when you were one step removed at
Newtonian physics you still could do
amazing things because you were getting
close enough to something true that you
were able to do certain things but there
will be a wall and so as your ability to
predict the outcome of your actions
breaks down you should immediately go ah
interesting the way I have drawn these
dots is not accurate enough for me to
get to that next stage and so what piece
of this is broken and this is where I
find people don't even realize they have
a frame of reference so they never think
to like recheck like hey what's wrong
with my way of thinking because things
are not I'm not making progress towards
my goal and therefore by definition I'm
doing something quote unquote wrong
which people are going to get hung up on
that word but I'm doing something wrong
and therefore I have to update my set of
beliefs in order to make additional
progress so I love that you again in in
the way that I love sitting with you you
bring up a million like I mean at least
five different ways of looking at this
question so what I'm going to focus in
on is is this idea of truth because what
you call
truth I associate with fact and fact and
Truth seem like they should be the same
thing but they're different things
because truth includes facts and beliefs
whereas facts excludes beliefs and that
I think was what you were getting at
with the end of your question when you
said that everybody looks through a lens
of what they believe so for example I
mean to go back to physics as an example
right cernus was the one who suggested
for the first time that maybe the Earth
revolves around the Sun everything
before that was that everything revolved
around the earth right that was the
facts that were known at the time even
the world's astronomers at the time were
able to map out the night sky and
sunrises and sunsets and Seasons back to
to the Earth and then the Roman Catholic
Church also aligned with the same belief
system everything revolves around the
earth so the truth and the predominant
set of facts at the time pointed to the
to the idea that everything revolved
around the earth cernus proposed
something different that wasn't actually
a provable fact until Newton right
whatever that was 100 years later 50
years later so here you have what you're
getting at facts are constantly being
Unearthed and proven to be true because
prior to it being a fact it's a
hypothesis it's an idea but belief
systems don't change as quickly as facts
and belief systems play into the idea of
what is a truth
right uh some people believe that we
should be making the world a better
place by removing human suffering the
Buddha believe that you it seems like
that's something that's very important
to you other people believe that you can
make the world a better place by
increasing the amount of success in the
world that suffering will always be
there so you can't really like don't try
to stop the suffering Instead try to
account for more success because the
more success in the world the more the
suffering will be raised right there
will be suffering always there will be
poor always that's a very Christian
principle right so you've you've got
these different belief sets that inform
the truth that people then move from for
me the utility is less about trying to
get people to align on a singular truth
and it's more about understanding each
individual each individual's perceived
truth and then using that position as
your temporary frame of reference in
order to have a productive conversation
or productive exchange with that
individual Why argue with a Muslim Why
argue with a Buddhist Why argue with a
Christian Why argue with a rabbi Why
argue at all if you can just adopt
temporarily and understand their frame
of reference and then get them to do the
productive thing that you're there to
get them to do that's the utility part
for me but do you think that's different
than the way I see it I don't know that
it's different but I wanted to call it
out specifically because if it's
different I want to learn from you where
you where you see it similar where you
see it differently but I also like one
of the places where people quickly learn
to agree or disagree with me is that I
take a
very binary approach to relationships I
see all relationships as being
transactional
it doesn't mean that you're transacting
money or transacting time or transacting
favors but there has to be something of
value that you're offering in exchange
for something that you value from the
other person when a relationship is not
transactional there's no reason to
invest in the relationship so for me I
find that the way I maximize the
transactional value of relationships is
not by trying to get other people to see
my point of view it's by me adopting and
adapting to their point of view first
and then if they're the kind of person
that I assess as being open to a
different point of view I'll present it
but there are plenty of people who are
not open to a different point of view
and if you want to have a productive
transactional exchange with that kind of
person you just roll with their frame of
reference yeah I think that's very wise
um that to me it's interesting so all of
these are linguistic traps that I think
eat up so much of the planet and so so
many times when I hear people arguing on
podcasts I'm like oh man I wish I could
be the Arbiter because there there is an
idea that I use a lot which is um I want
to know if I accurately understand this
person's base assumption and what I have
found in my life is when two intelligent
well-meaning people think that the other
person is crazy it is because they
either have different values or
different base assumptions values have
to do with what the world ought to be in
their opinion and base assumptions have
to with a Mis uh a disagreement over
what is true and I'm not a believer in
post truth world or Posta world but I
think anybody who thinks that the truth
is self-evident is a fool and the truth
is brutally difficult to get to and for
evidence of that we still don't
understand physics not all the way so
it's like we understand it well enough
to do some amazing things but we don't
understand it all the way and so if we
can all agree to Max Plank's quote that
science does not Advance one inside at a
time but rather one funeral at a time
it's because people can't to your point
adjust what they think is
true that's crazy and you said I think
beliefs don't update as quickly as facts
it's like yeah okay so people end up
getting trapped by their frame of
reference which has a whole host of
baggage but also people just get lost in
words they don't take the time to define
the words and even if they do oh my God
it is so hard to get somebody to like
really understand what we mean by this
one of the most important things my wife
and I ever did to make our relationship
last was Define a small set of key words
that were like this is what this word
means now and forever for us and so it
became easier to navigate a relationship
so I think people get lost in that
probably more effective than people
getting lost and defining every term
would be to say what's your goal I think
that's incredibly important and when
people can say what their goal is in a
single sentence with no parentheticals
and run-ons just like a really tight
concise 25 to 35W sentence it's like
this is what I'm trying to achieve okay
word so if I know that's what you're
trying to achieve and you're telling me
to do the thing which sounds absolutely
crazy now this is where I come in as a
writer and I say huh if I were writing
this person as a character because they
think they're the hero right no one
thinks they're the villain ever right so
they think they the hero what would they
need to believe is true in order for the
hero to want to do this thing in order
to accomplish that goal and then I'm
doing what you advise which is I'm now
stepping inside their frame of reference
and I'm saying oh my God okay cool and
so I'll just ask people is the following
base assumption how you view the world
and they either say yes and I'm like
okay wow I I in an agree with you but
now I understand you and now I can
actually steal men your argument I can
say this is what you believe and I can
say where we're colliding is this you
have this base assumption and I have
that base assumption or you have this
goal which is hey don't worry about
suffering everyone's going to suffer
suffering is fine and I'm all about
trying to alleviate human suffering and
so now at least we actually know where
we're
colliding and man if I could give that
gift to people again regardless of what
you're trying to accomplish and so one
thing I really want to put a fine point
on that you said because I think it's
really brilliant is not trying to
persuade people and inad trying to
understand them once you understand them
then it's like oh wow okay now I have a
rough approximation of at least a car of
that's the wrong word because that has
too much baggage I have at least a low
Fidelity sense of your world view and so
now you become a lot more predictable to
me which means I'm a lot closer to
ground truth of who you are and at least
I can my predictive engine doesn't break
anymore so there's two things I want to
I want to present in that accompany what
your what your statement is right there
right the first is that you present to
people the idea like here is what I
understand your base assumption to
be there's a concept in Espionage that
we call priming or analytical overlay to
go back to your conversation about
seeing dogs and the Stars very similar
things right analytical overlay is when
someone's
predominant understanding through life
experience and education
overlays how they view all new
information right so they have a a set
of Base assumptions you can in a low
Fidelity way identify what those base
assumptions are because they went to a
private school in London or because they
grew up in Boston or because they grew
up with a military family you can start
to create an assessment of what their
base assumptions might be and then you
can test those base assumptions to
verify and confirm that your assessment
is accurate or inaccurate
ultimately leading to a point where you
understand why they see a German
Shepherd in the Sky versus an English
terrier in the sky right because of
their analytical overlay combine that
with this idea of priming priming is
when you present an idea and by
presenting the idea they have no option
but
to have that idea essentially incept
into their brain it's like when I look
at you and I say Tom whatever you do
right now don't think of the color
orange
I've already thought of the color orange
of course right and you thought of color
and you thought of thoughts right so
you've been primed in multiple areas so
now when I follow up in that question I
say Tom real quick tell me what your
favorite juice
is you have to fight not to say orange
juice right even if it's not true even
if it's not true you've been primed so
what jumps to mind is what you were just
primed to believe what you were just
primed to say so when it comes to this
world of information this world of fast
moving High Velocity high volume
information you can be primed and then
mediately be confirmed because they'll
Prime you with information ask you a
follow-up question how do you feel about
this and now we're going to Jane on
camera 2 and Jane what do the what does
the audience think about this right well
the audience just got primed to think
exactly what you just told them to think
so when you put them on the spot and you
and you force them into a high velocity
situation you're going to have a high
likelihood of the primed thought being
what comes right back so when you ask
somebody I is your my understanding that
your base assumption is this you're
doing two things one you're priming them
of what you believe their base
assumption to be so even if you're 80%
accurate 10 20% inaccurate they've now
been primed with what you told them you
understand their base assumption to be
so they their natural inclination is
going to be to agree with things that
maybe aren't fully accurate but they
feel on the spot to answer and they've
been primed and it's it's within easy
grasp for them to just regurgitate it
and say it out loud that's part of
priming if if you then Prime them about
a base assumption that you've assumed
through an analysis of their own
background you also have this idea of
analytical overlay on top of that so you
you run the risk of getting a
confirmation that isn't fully
accurate if um how do you avoid that
like if you really want to know what's
true you're not trying to paint somebody
in a corner however people usually don't
know what's driving their own thinking
correct and so you have to help them by
saying here's what it sounds like you're
saying and that's I think you nailed you
nailed a fact right there and then a
truth which like I said facts and truths
for me aren't the same thing the fact is
people don't know what they're thinking
absolute fact even though you and I as
much time as we spend thinking think we
know what we're thinking we still don't
really know what we're thinking that's
why I'm sure that you spend time just
thinking and you jot down notes and you
review your notes and then you're like
that's not quite right you've done it on
this podcast already where you're like
that that caricature is not the right
word I have to pick that apart even more
here in real time even as I say it you
are able to think about thinking in real
time when most people can't so then you
have to understand that most people
don't know what they're thinking and
don't realize they don't know what
they're thinking so for sure they're
they don't know what they're saying
because they can't even think at the
speed that they can talk you have to
build that into your assessment of
people always going back to the idea
that if you are trying to win in life if
you are trying to win in business and in
entrepreneurialism if you're trying to
succeed it's not about trying to get
other people to learn that's your truth
your truth is I have to help them that's
your truth I have to help them think I
have to help them say what they're
thinking the fact is they don't know
what they're thinking how could you
possibly help somebody to say what
they're thinking if they don't even know
what they're thinking instead you're
helping them to say something so that
they can get off the X because this is
really comfortable to them to think
about
thinking that was a big Whirlpool of
malstrom ideas did it did it make sense
to you it does but I still have the
follow-up question which is um I don't
I'm not trying to plant an idea in their
mind I I will say this there are times
where I am trying to plant an idea in
their mind it's what I call trapping
somebody with their own value system
which is very effective and I should do
like a whole class on that because oh my
God however in this case I'm I'm trying
to refine my own toolkit and help
anybody listening developed their
toolkit around thinking through a novel
problem well and for that I need to be
able to actually really just understand
the situation I'm really imagine I'm not
trying to plant anything in anybody's
mind I'm really just trying to figure
out where are you at but people will
talk in circles they will be in run on
sentences I get into this all the time
where I will finally just have to say to
people hey like that is the world's
longest I asked you for a single
sentence on this you've been talking for
three minutes so um then I'll start
saying what I think I hear you saying is
this is that accurate and so we have a
thing here at impact Theory where I'll
say I want to get to the point where you
say the exact words you understand my
position perfectly and you'll usually
get to like yeah you've got the Essence
no no no so I'm missing something what
part am I missing so anyway how do you
without planting something in somebody's
mind or priming them how do you unearth
what they're
thinking I the utility of information
for me is to never disclose the full
extent of the information I understand
it's something we call in in Espionage
terms as we call it information
superiority even in your marriage so my
marriage is is a different animal
because in my marriage my wife and I we
try to operate a level of transparency
yeah mainly because we can both we we've
both been trained to see
non-transparency all right so give me
both angles so one where first give me
the I'm trying to conceal okay but then
I'll want to go through when you're in
transparency mode with your wife or
anybody else what does that look like so
when I'm trying to conceal I'm in
receive mode and I'm I'm I'm I validate
I authenticate I confirm right this is
what you believe internally you're like
okay I think he believes this how do you
verify it I I ask a follow-up related
question let's say something that's 10%
different to see if I get what I the
answer I expect to get and then I'll
push myself another 10% and another 10%
until I find the boundary and I'm
getting it wrong right so when somebody
says something something like you know
uh I think it's so crazy that Dunkin
Donuts puts you know uh makes doughnut
sandwiches right I also think it's crazy
that Dunkin' Donuts makes donut
sandwiches but are they saying it's
crazy cool or are they saying it's crazy
sick and gross so I've got to ask a
question that's 10% off right like oh do
you do you think that it's just too
sweet or do you think that like do you
think this the sweetness goes well with
the Savory and then eventually you'll
get to the place where they're just like
oh it's just so gross why would you put
meat between two Donuts ah now I know
where you're at rather than coming out
and saying are you saying that you think
it's gross or are you saying that you
think it's cool because as soon as I ask
that direct question they now know that
I don't know what they're thinking up
until that they assume that what they
communicated was crystal clear I don't
want to give them the advantage of
knowing what I do and don't understand
instead I can create a whole
conversation which means I can create a
whole relationship a whole series of
transactions I can build what we call
social capital or social currency by
engaging in a conversation about
something as low stakes as doughnut
sandwiches and that's what's really
valuable when if you think about
somebody who's trying to build
relationship someone who's trying to
build a develop a business relationship
for a client someone who's trying to uh
uh build a a promotional uh argument
with their boss the thing that you need
the most is to just have some sort of
capital transactional exchange with the
person in control of that fate the
client the customer the Romantic partner
the boss the way that you build that is
through a series of transactions where
they feel validated authenticated and
heard if you can make them feel like you
understand
them they just have to feel it it
doesn't have to be true and we know that
the brain accepts emotional decisions
before factual decisions so if you can
make someone feel like you agree with
them even if you don't you're actually
giving them more value than they're
giving you you have control of that
relationship so in in my approach to to
business in my approach to relationships
in my business in my approach to most
Elements of Life I'm trying to
understand where the other person is
coming from without disclosing where I
stand on that topic until I get to a
place where I have enough information
that validates that that where I stand
is close to where they stand and then I
will disclose that and in an effort to
bring that relationship even closer
together right that's how I handle it in
general all right what about when you're
in full transparency mode in full
transparency mode with my wife what I'll
do is I'll overe explain right I will
tell her here's what I'm thinking here's
what I'm feeling here's where I'm coming
from and not only will I tell her what I
understand about my position I will also
tell her about what I don't understand
about my position right so as an example
uh I'm I do a TV show I'm on a TV show
with History Channel it's my second
season I've been traveling for about 5
months now I've got one more month of
travel I travel somewhere between 25 and
35 days at a time oh my God and then I'm
home for 5 days or 10 days right so I'm
missing out on these core months of my
children my 10-year-old son my
six-year-old daughter and at the
beginning of the season they they had a
high tolerance for me being gone they're
accustomed to me traveling they're even
accustomed to be traveling for months at
a time but they're not accustomed to me
traveling for six months months at a
time it's half a year
so when I for Christ I was home with my
wife and I'm walking her through my
feelings about missing these elements of
my children's lives and I'm I'm telling
her like here's what I know I feel I
know I feel guilty I know I feel sad I
know I miss them I know that I'm doing
it to help build the business and to
help build the brand and to help you
know it's we live in a world where the
best currency is eyeballs and awareness
and I know I'm building all that and I
know I'm building that for them but it
still hurts and I don't know what to do
with the hurt and I feel like I'm
letting you down and I don't even know
why I feel like I'm letting you down
because I'm bringing you a good paycheck
and I'm giving you a good life and I
talk to you as often as I can but I know
you're still suffering because you have
anxiety and because you have you know
you you didn't sign up to be a mom
without a dad there to help you and no
matter how many nannies and cooks and
cleaners I hire it's not the same thing
as having a husband and I just kind of
put it in full transparency mode I
frontend load what I know and what I
don't know and then I let her respond
and in that response what I often find
is that some of the things I don't know
become known because a lot of what I
don't know is tied to how she perceives
something but also when you have
somebody that you're so close to that
you can give that level of
transparency their inputs connect dots
that you couldn't connect previously or
they highlight places where you
connected dots incorrectly and you can
push back on that and you can you can
confirm that and you can find great
comfort and relief when you have those
few people that you can open that level
of transparency
too yeah I uh want that for everyone
when you have somebody like that that
you can trust that is your
equal uh that helps you think through
things that can see things in yourself
that you can't see going back to trying
to more accurately connect the dots even
just from a utilitarian standpoint it's
amazingly helpful um but even just from
a oh my god it feels nice to be seen and
to share a life and all that stuff it it
really is incredible but
yeah I find most people struggle there
one they probably don't know their own
edges of what they understand and what
they don't understand um they don't know
how to process out loud and begin to map
out their own thinking yeah it's uh this
goes back to one of the first things I
said which is people are way too easy to
confuse it's just people have a really
hard time with nuanced positions and
then even if they can sort of touch it
for a second it then goes away and they
need a caricature accurately used this
time um uh to hold on to and that's the
fun thing about an impression or an
actual caricature drawing is with you
know very little detail I can convince
you that that is who you think it is
like if I'm doing a caricature of you if
I get the hair right you know yeah
people are G be like oh yeah I got it um
so it's really interesting how you can
with very little information however
it's not super accurate and so yeah if
people can't get to the nuanced part
they're in real trouble so here's here's
where I would love your input for sure
so I was just telling you that everyday
spy cross the million dollar Mark yes
and I'm very excited congratulations
thank you very much amazing man I'm very
excited to run top 9% of all businesses
it's an incredible feeling it's amazing
and it's incredible to know that we're
we're really just starting facts and
it's it's so I'm beyond the moon in
terms of excitement but at the same time
a a part of how we got there is not by
trying to create truths for people it's
not like we were trying to uh push
against the predominant way of thinking
instead what we were doing was
presenting what we believed to be facts
here's factual systems here's factual
processes here's factual information
that we have seen work for us that I've
seen work for me that may work for you
or may work for your business or may
work for your relationship or may work
for your health and your Fitness
right but we always presented it we
always targeted and marketed to people
where they were according to their own
existing current beliefs their own
existing current truths their own
existing current analytical overlay we
Prime them with thoughts in our
marketing campaigns we we essentially
reached out to use a a spy a spy concept
we reached out to them where they were
we didn't try to reach out to them
aspirationally to where they were going
weed to reach out to them where they
were and the reason I say that is
because you know as you seek to share
truth I I admire that I I value that I
honor that I don't intend to build a
business that's trying to share truth as
much as I have found the success of
listening and adapting to where people
are and then entrepreneurially marketing
to them where they are MH and building
connection with them where they are so
that you can essentially get into their
head into their mind into their heart
and gain that transactional exchange
that turns into a relationship that
becomes a long-term Customer because the
customer will do what you ask them to do
to get the outcomes that are predictable
only if they do the work that you've
asked them to do is there a flaw in that
is it is it is there a layer of
evolution that you can add to that I I'm
I am now asking completely
selfishly um well it's interesting so
you I don't know that there is a layer
to that that isn't individual
so uh when I look at companies that are
perfectly happy to sell people what they
want rather than what they need I get
very jealous because I can't do it and
there's something about my wiring where
I'm only interested in selling you what
I know you actually need because
otherwise I feel like a fake and I
[ __ ] hate that and so I I understand
about myself and this is why I tell
people and and this is self-revelatory
maybe more than it is universally
accurate but it is so true of me I
cannot say anything else and that is all
that matters in life is how you feel
about yourself when you're by yourself
again that's a confession so all I care
about is how I feel about myself I do I
won't say I don't care about what other
people think but if I feel like I've
really honored my values and I've showed
up and I fought for the things that I
believe or right if the world were to um
at some point misunderstand me and try
to malign me or whatever that wouldn't
damage me I would be very sad because it
will disrupt my ability to build my
business but I would think of it like
that like oh this is really messing up
my ability to build a business because
people have the wrong idea about who I
am and what I'm trying to accomplish and
I believe in what I'm trying to do and
trying to accomplish or if the world
suddenly was like um helping to
eliminate human softare uing and uh
increasing human flourishing that's ass
bro and like why are you pursuing that
then I'd be like all right you guys are
out of your [ __ ] minds so I've have
such an internal anchor on that is that
just being objectively what all say is
true I know we use that word very
differently um but that to me is the
intersection of ought and is ought being
a value judgment and is being I actually
think that's how the world works that if
you Empower people to navigate novel
problems well they will based on The
evolutionary algorithms that run in all
of our minds they will have a
neurological state that I'll call
fulfillment that is the thing people
should be aiming for it's the only
Pleasant feeling that can survive grief
as an example so if you're in grief like
that's going to suck no matter what but
a bowl of ice cream does not give you
happiness in the middle of grief in the
way that fulfillment still gives you an
anchor of I'm proud of who I am even
though right now the loss of my wife or
my mother or whatever is just it it's
grueling
so that that's is an not to me and
that's what I'm aiming for I'm trying to
help as many people exist in that
neurological State as often as possible
now where that gets complicated is where
because of frame of reference the thing
that makes you feel good about yourself
is something that creates like atrocity
and hey welcome back to the the Israel
Hamas conversation so it it's that is
really fascinating but I don't think
there's a way to escape that because
such is the nature of the algorithms
running in the human mind which is why
these problems have no sort of absolute
solution but I think that there are Ways
to Think through these problems well so
we'll get to that in a second but to to
just officially answer your question you
will Thrive so if you can do that from a
business perspective and sell people
what they want you will do very well
because people will pay for what they
want all day long um what I fear is that
at some point the money won't solve the
problem you will start looking to but
are we actually helping people if you're
at all wired the way that I am that
question is going to occur to you
aggressively but I look at people I'll
let them remain nameless but I look at
some of the big names and this will
often happen with sales guys and they
make a ton of money a ton of money but I
cringe I could not do it no matter how
much money you told me I could make the
way that would make me feel about myself
I couldn't do it and that holds me back
but since I believe the only thing that
really matters is how I feel about
myself that's been my life that all the
money in the world if I don't like who I
am that's a one way path to Suicide so
uh I don't want to be rich and killing
myself that that just doesn't strike me
as interesting in the slightest and yet
people take that life path so anyway
that that for me would be the only thing
and I don't know if you're wired like
I'm wired so maybe that's just like no
I'll be fine I don't know know what's
funny is uh is one of the things and I
find that entrepreneurialism has been
the best
teacher possibly ever because the the
market teaches you lessons oh yes my
friend customers teach you lessons
experimentation teaches you lessons and
one of the big lessons that I feel like
I've learned is the the the truth behind
the 8020 rule right and and how powerful
that 8020 rule really is and when I
think of it specifically what I've seen
it play out in my audience base is that
when I try to when I try really hard to
Market what people
need I have of 100% of of buyers 80%
won't complete it correct 20% will well
80% probably more won't even buy it yeah
that's for sure that's the first level
right 80% won't buy it 20% will of the
20% that does buy it 80% won't finish it
20% will now there I have solutions for
you and then and then but second to that
at the same time when I test that
against an 8020 rule what they want the
same mathematical principle RS out of
the 100% of people that buy it 80% don't
complete it 20% do so I bring it up not
as a as a lesson for me as much as
something that I have found to be
absolutely critical to reaching the
point where I am in my business is
understanding the mathematical
principles the the data driven facts
that exist behind sales and marketing
that whether you Market to what they
want or whether you Market to what they
need there may be different conversions
at first but then when it comes to the
actual adopters human behavior Reigns
out 80% don't complete it 20% will so
you have to have a plan for recapturing
the 80% that don't complete it because
if they don't complete it they don't get
the outcome if they don't get the
outcome you're not changing any lives so
I mean the mission of our company is to
use spy education to break barriers so
just like you I am very much in the
business of breaking barriers if we're
not breaking barriers we're not doing
business sales sales a sales right money
is just a way of counting the number of
lives that we're touching because it's
very hard to get people to raise their
hand and say you changed my life you
changed my life it's much easier to be
like we changed a million dollars worth
in lives this year we're going to try to
change $3 million in lives next year
it's something you can actually measure
but what's fascinating to me is that
the the moral quandry of how you Market
what you Market what you sell is often
times uh less relevant than how you
drive people towards the outcome that
you're trying to get them to achieve
because once they taste outcome they
become lifetime customers but you got to
get them to outcome first yeah you have
to get them to outcome and very quickly
yes yeah getting people to outcome
quickly is the name of the game that
that when I said oh I have a solution
for you there that's exactly the
solution is you have to figure out how
to class something how to get them to
feel feel something as a win very
quickly um You probably have 60 minutes
if you don't get somebody to feel
something directionally obviously you're
not going to get them to the final
outcome but if you can get them
directionally to feel like oh wow I had
a little victory in the right way
pointed in the right direction uh if you
can't get that to them quickly then they
just won't stick with it much to my
dismay but such as human nature now we
could really derail on that but um I
want to come back to Israel and Hamas so
this is um this is going to be a really
good case test for I think we did a
pretty good job of laying out how to
Think Through very difficult problems um
and this is a maybe the intractable
problem of our times and so I seriously
doubt that you and I will come to a a
three-step plan that they can Implement
and look we saw World Peace everybody
and get the the Nobel Peace Prize for
this podcast though that will be the aim
let's try it yes right so U but I do
want to deploy this now as we go through
this so this is not a topic that I'm
deeply familiar with um but I really
believe it's important for people to um
show their
work what I mean by that is on this
podcast what I'm constantly doing is
showing people how I think through
problems and all the success that I've
had is this thing that I do live on the
podcast this is how I encounter a
difficult problem in my marriage this is
how I encounter a difficult problem in
business and I go through this thing um
and so it it is what we laid out earlier
all right so we know that step one is
mapping the terrain so walk me through
what is going on so when you take a look
at the battlefield here not the not the
literal battlefield but the the
landscape of Israel and Palestine what
you have is something that in many ways
goes all the way back to biblical days
Abraham who's the father of all Nations
had two sons Ishmael and Isaac ishma
became the father of Islam Isaac became
the father of Judaism and on to become
the father of Christianity so the
conflict that exists between Palestine a
Muslim country or m a Muslim uh group
and Israel a Jewish largely
predominantly Jewish group essentially
is the the generational ongoing conflict
between Isaac and Ishmael and is there
so forgive me dear listeners but I think
of this as a
story uh and a very powerful story but
one designed to convey things at each
Branch so between the brothers I have to
imagine there was a tale that we learn
about each brother each brother
represents something what do the
brothers represent so I I don't I am not
creative enough I think to speak to the
literary uh element Peterson no for real
like this is his whole shtick yeah like
showing how basically modern Humanity
can be read through the lens of
religious traditions and what those
stories tell you most people haven't
read his book maps of meaning it is
unbelievably good uh anyway so okay so
that part we don't have that's we have a
DOT point that has a gap maybe we won't
be able to fill it in here but I get
your point so we've got the two brothers
they create two different traditions and
they both lay they both have valid claim
all the way back to the biblical valid
claim of what a valid claim all the way
back to biblical and or konic tradition
to being tied to the father of all
Nations
okay what does that matter because for
both of them what they're what they're
really trying to say is that they have a
right to survive in in equality that
they are tied to the father of all
Nations but does this come down to hey
we're tied to the father of all Nations
and that manifests as dirt and so this
dirt and rock is rightfully mine uh I
think that's the oversimplified way that
the Western world is it oversimplified
or is that really what like at some
point this manifests as something either
ideological or tangible so the the place
where it becomes tangible and
ideological is in the end of World War
II at the end of World War II the Jewish
diaspora that had been hunted and killed
by the Nazi party needed a a a country
of their own and because other countries
in the world didn't want to take on the
refugees they essentially took them all
to the Palestinian state that is now
known as Israel and was and the West the
Western allies granted the boundaries of
Israel and said this is where the Jews
should live this is where Jerusalem
exists this is where the this is this is
their Homeland where they were born
where they came from going back to the
brothers going back to the brothers but
the Palestinian Muslims were already
there they had never been displaced from
their Homeland so by having the West
create a nation state create boundaries
and everything for a group of religious
people Jews that were persecuted during
World War II now all of a sudden the
West defined the
organizational uh National structure of
Israel and that's where the conflict
really started because now you had
Western allies saying this is the Jewish
State the Jewish State defining itself
as Israel the Palestinian diaspora who
were now being forced from their own
Homeland saying but we were already here
like this is this is Jerusalem is the
city where a where uh Muhammad ascended
into heaven like this is a holy place
for us too and so the West was just like
well then you can both share
it we're going home right we got we got
a party after VE day we're done here and
that's where everything started from
there you also then had Western Powers
funding and fueling the economic success
of Israel and by the way I just want
people listening at home uh
you are providing a very fast painting I
know enough to know that there's you
know God only knows how much history of
conflict before 1948 where these
boundaries are laid and all that stuff
this I I just want people to understand
this is an exercise on how to think
through a difficult problem this is not
a um a one for one accurate
representation of everything you will
need a far longer video from experts in
this field we we go into this
conversation fully understanding that um
but I do think to the initial framing of
this episode I think it's very important
to understand what I'm trying to do uh I
think putting your head down is the
wrong move at this particular moment in
history there are probably times that
come and go throughout history where it
is okay to put your head down and for
the first 40 years of my life I had my
head down and it worked out wonderfully
uh but this moment feels different now
that could be a mirage maybe it's just
my age and everybody sort of pokes their
head up at this point in their age and
starts thinking the way that I'm
thinking I don't know but this moment
really does feel different to me and
we'll get into Ai and some other things
later I think there are a lot of threats
on the board right now um certainly AI
technology social media all of that we
talked about velocity and volume of
information earlier all of that's at
play so anyway I just want to set that
say so the comment doesn't waste time
with like the boring [ __ ] like because
yes simplistic Viewpoint here from the
setting of the table we'll talk okay but
what do you do now right um and what I
really hope because I I think that the
comments are going to end up being a big
part of what makes this episode um
useful to a larger audience so I hope
that we can eliminate some of the
more I don't want people to get bogged
down in the wrong thing so yes many
details to talk about we just need to
set a quick table so that then we can
talk about things like hey when humans
have a historical conflict over who has
a right
do
forward weting it's I'll I'll set the
table faster too no no no I don't need
you to set it faster because I know no
matter how much you do we're we're not
going to get there the more detail you
have give it to me for sure fair enough
so so then what ended up happening was
now we have uh as as the West places uh
the Jewish diaspora into Israel and and
and supports the establishment of of a
Jewish State we then also have the
responsibility of the West in fueling
the economy for the Jewish State because
you can't I mean we did the same thing
in Japan we're going to rebuild there's
economic benefits to the United States
in rebuilding foreign countries there's
economic benefits in having allies that
you help economically rebuild so fast
forward till today and now you have
Israel had this massive boost
economically from Western partners and
Western allies when they were placed in
Israel those the the Palestinian
counterparts did not have access to that
Financial benefit that the Israelis did
so there's like you said Decades of
conflict between Israelis and
Palestinians and there's everything's
documented out there and there's a
thousand ways that you can look at it
and interpret it and whatever else but
in the end what what happened was the
the Palestinians through the lens of
most Muslim countries became oppressed
became ostracized from their
own like their own land their own Nation
where they could Thrive and to build an
economy and build a political
establishment and build a legacy for
their future because that land was being
supported and developed by the Jewish
State and the Jewish State and the
Muslim State just didn't want to get
along for a number of reasons that that
we don't really have a say in because we
didn't live there at the time right and
that's how that's how I interpret uh the
many years of historical conflict
between Palestinians and Israelis in
that
country the place where we have to fast
forward this to is until
1997 in
Hamas became a political group that was
supporting Palestinians in their fight
to resist what was perceived to be
Israeli oppression Hamas became the more
aggressive group versus the Palestinian
Authority which became what's known as a
secular group or a non-religious group
and those became the two the two
political powers vying for support from
the Palestinian people and at the time
in 1987 the vast majority of that
support went to the Palestinian
Authority not to Hamas hamas's promise
at the time was we will destroy the
Israeli country and we will return the
entire country back to the Muslim people
not a religious War they weren't going
after killing Jews they were trying to
destroy
Israel not that it makes it that much
better but at least to clarify what
their Ambitions were in
1987 nobody determined that Hamas was a
terrorist organization in 1987 despite
their claim despite their promise to
eradicate Israel in
1997 following major terrorist attacks
inside the United States the peak being
the Timothy McVey bombing uh of Oklahoma
in Oklahoma City the United States
became very focused on terrorism and
counterterrorism and in 1987 they
created the terrorist watch list or the
foreign terrorist organization list and
in that list they listed every Muslim
extremist group as a terrorist
organization on that list Hamas was
included so at that moment in time in
1997 based on what was happening in the
United States in their struggle with
extremism they targeted Muslim extremism
as one of the other one of the many
extremisms that they would list as
terrorist organizations that's why even
today the United States lists Hamas as
as a terrorist group where most of the
rest of the world does not there's even
country like there's only 12 countries
total that that list Hamas as a
terrorist organization and in many ways
it's because those 12 countries there 11
countries Take the Lead they follow the
lead of the United States the UN as an
organization does not list Hamas as
terrorist so in 1997 Hamas becomes a
terrorist group but they're this
terrorist group that also has a
political arm that's supporting and
taking care of the Palestinian people
within
Gaza that's already kind of a mess that
becomes complicated right Palestine
can't create a standing army they can't
create their own standing economy they
can't create foreign trade they can't
create anything significant because they
don't have they're not recognized as a
nation so a few Muslim countries like
Qatar and and Saudi Arabia and Egypt
recognize the Palestinian people but not
the Palestinian State and everybody
recognizes the right of the Palestinian
to a state but nobody wants to say what
that state is going to be so that
becomes a mess that most of the first
world doesn't even follow doesn't really
care about until things start blowing up
in Israel and Palestine October 7th
2023 this group known as Hamas based out
of Gaza conducts this massive incursion
the the most doctrinally correct word is
it was an incursion across a border
within one country closest to a civil
war much closer to a civil war than an
attack from a foreign Nation right they
carry out this incursion that uses
terrorist tactics terrorist tools but
also targets military targets for a
political goal that has been stated and
consistent since
1987 now we live in this world where
what is this thing that's happening the
United States labels the group as a
terrorist group however all humanitarian
Aid that we send to Palestine has to go
through Hamas like they control the
politics they control the governance
they control the hospitals not terrorist
Al-Qaeda never controlled hospitals
right that's it's it's not as clear as
we think it is but it's hard to get that
Nuance across with the velocity and
volume of information so now we live in
this world where velocity and volume of
information make it so that we all see
the dead bodies and the the crying
children and the D women on the
Palestinian side but we also read about
the atrocities that were executed
against these Israelis in a surprise
attack on October 7th we're faced with
all the information and there's no
clarity as to what's really the Nuance
what's really the the battlefield what
are we really looking at here so you've
got Israel trying to counter what they
know is a is a threat to their National
sovereignty but they've also got a
problem with a group that was created
because of the oppression they put on
the Palestinian people and that's that
is what the group States is their whole
their whole core purpose the reason they
exist at all is because of that
oppression so you've got this this
absolute mess that the world is watching
play out dayto day but at the same time
the world isn't invested enough to
actually try to resolve the
conflict how often are you checking your
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[Music]
code okay um so one I want to
acknowledge that that is a sketch from a
perspective um again speaking to the
comment section right now um of course
there are going to be different
perspectives on that I don't know this
well enough to feel like I have a
perspective but I will lay out a few
things that I am aware of um as a way of
filling in additional color to your
point about um trying to triangulate
based on opposing viewpoints and I think
yours is a from the different voices
that I've heard yours is relatively
sedate there are people that are far
sort of harder on the Palestinian side
though I'd say you lean Pro Palestinian
I don't know if that feels right to you
um but that seems reasonable you're
pretty middle of the road but if you
have a lean it's that way um so some of
the other chips that I've heard by way
of putting dots that that people will
have to connect as they try to build a
narrative that creates the emotion that
allows them to have a way of thinking
how to move forward would be okay you
mentioned the Jews are coming out of the
Holocaust you've just had six million
people in the diaspora literally at an
industrial level um killed in
unimaginably horrific ways and I can
only imagine you started this by saying
like they're able to trace all of this
back to the brothers and the split and
and the way that that sort of goes and
you mentioned compasses earlier and if
you get off by 3 degrees in the
beginning doesn't seem like much but you
know a thousand years later uh there's a
huge Gulf between you which is very much
what this feels like I bring that up to
say that um you really can go back and
back and back on who owns the land you
can go back and back and back on who did
who wrong and so um trying to find like
where it all started is probably not
super fruitful um but there if you're
the Israelis or if you're a Jew post
World War II uh never again we're going
to be strong this time we're going to
build a nation state that nation state
has to be somewhere we go back to the
region of Judea which is where they
derive their name from so to your point
they were um removed from their Homeland
but still very much um spiritually that
probably isn't the right word but
there's a thing there where they still
have a massive identity in that region
that they're tied to even all these
years later um also it's my
understanding that there was no official
Palestinian state so it's not like the
Jews went in and took over a state so
the West I'm now guessing I want to be
very clear about sort of where I'm
teleporting myself into the mind of
somebody and when I'm offering what I
think are facts now I am very much
speaking like a writer would speak but
if I'm the west and I'm like me there's
no State here anyway really fully
understand the conflict I can see bad
things coming because I'm smart and I
understand humans well enough there's
probably going to be some drama here
which is why the US actually pulls their
support at one point of this whole idea
um but nonetheless it's like well we'll
do it we'll bone out to your point we
want to go celebrate we've just won
World War II um and I don't see a better
solution so let's see what happens um
through all of that there are times
where um a two-state solution has been
proposed the Palestinians reject it
there's the whole notion of from The
River To The Sea they don't believe that
there's any amount of Israel that can
exist I'm using the word Israel very
intentionally as opposed to Jews um this
is where I don't know it well enough to
know if that act accurately captures the
spirit it certainly accurately captures
the pr that is very much how it is
presented no no no this isn't about
religious difference this is not a a
racist thing this is just purely Israel
has occupied our land that is rightfully
ours and we want to get rid of the
nation state of Israel of course
functionally the way that you do that is
by killing people ripping them tearing
them from their land because they will
of course fight back if they were all
just willing to up and leave then sure
but we know that that's not going to
happen so uh multiple times that's
offered and rejected for the reasons
that I just laid out um and you end up
in a position now where um you gave me a
piece that I had not heard before so
it's very interesting because I looked
at this and was like okay uh Israel ends
up thriving economically and Palestine
has not now of course um I'm aware of
the positioning of it's an open air
prison how could they ever hope to you
have these people that um have just
subjugated them and of course the
economy is never going to grow uh what I
had never heard before and it's very
interesting is well the West really
helped them when they were in that nent
fragile place the West helped them get
their feet under them I think it begs a
question what have they been doing with
the aid that they've got because it's
billions of dollars and so one would
hope that they would be spending that on
infrastructure so anyway this is where I
now start going okay I don't know how
many more pieces it makes sense to put
on the table because I have a base
assumption that now we're just getting
into who's right and who's wrong I have
a base assumption that this will
continue to be an intractable problem if
you are approaching this from right and
wrong which is why again as a headline
reader
the Abraham Accords strike me as very um
positive because it was just human
greed to use a terrible word for
something that maybe isn't bad at all
which is when people are thriving
economically the people feel good you
feel like you have a future you have
hope that your kids lives will be better
than yours and when you get people in
that kind of momentum now they're
pointed in a positive direction so again
I'm leaking my base assumptions here so
my base assumption is you have to give
the Palestinian people sense of a future
uh that their kids lives would be better
than theirs that you want to fill them
with hope and optimism and all of that
now you're not going to do that with the
who's right and who's wrong now I happen
to have a weird sort of thing in my life
that makes me maybe look at things a
little bit differently again frame of
reference this is bias now but my wife's
family is from Cyprus and for people
that don't know the history of Cyprus it
is freakishly similar to the Israel
Palestine conflict you you had Greeks
and Turks living on the same Little
Island if You' never looked it up like
this is not a big place uh living on the
same island and one day in the 70s I
think late 60s early 70s uh the Turks
invade and they cut the island in half
and the people on North side of the
island my wife's family included they're
just stripped of everything this house
isn't yours it was yours Monday morning
when you woke up M Monday night it's not
your house we've seen these videos play
out in Israel Palestine so we know this
drama and I mean gut-wrenching as you
can imagine you literally lose
everything in an instant man like I I
can't imagine like if if tonight this
house and everything that I own ceased
to be mine that would be obviously the
most traumatic thing that ever happened
to me in my life so brutal the crazy
thing is that you don't have the same
ongoing Bloodshed between the Greeks and
the Turks and so it makes me ask what
what is different because you have the
same sense of the Greeks like that's not
their land to take they have no right to
that land that was our land we were
kicked out of it it's rightfully ours
you can trace it back so much you know
history of Greeks occupying the island
raising it you know from nothingness
taming it all that like I mean the
Greeks have a very long history and so
and I'm sure the Turks would say the
same thing right so even though you have
all of that you have not got the same
like they've managed to reach
stability so the question becomes what
what is different and this is where it
seems to me that you have to at least be
exploring the ideologies and what's
happening and again you're never going
to get either side to give up their
religion so I for me as I think through
this difficult problem I'm just saying
whatever solution you're going to
proposed has to take that off the table
you cannot ask them to go oh the other
person's right their religion is correct
they're not going to do that you can't
ask them to go uh you're right we're
we're just going to move out of Israel
and hand it over they're never going to
do that and given that in 2005 the Jews
pulled out of the West Bank and out of
the Gaza Strip and it didn't solve the
conflict so they even
if another was like hey but if you just
leave this area then everything really
will be fine they don't have a reason to
believe like historically just the way
the humans are they're going to be like
no we tried that and it didn't work so
you got to take that off the table so
now it when I think about okay as I tell
entrepreneurs all the time if you have a
difficult problem to solve ask yourself
has anybody solved this problem in the
past and if you want to look at it from
AP partide cool look at South Africa
what what did they get right um or look
at some of the countries where a new
nation state was born and is that the
right way to handle this
and then you can start at least mapping
out why those would or wouldn't work and
from what I hear because the first time
I heard of a two-state solution I was
like that makes sense to me do a to yeah
perfect I can't believe I didn't think
of that right and uh and then everyone's
like yeah no nobody considers that
realistic anymore but that feels like
the thing we have to find out that that
is a gap that we'll never be able to
resolve this until we find out why
having a two-state solution won't work
do you think I'm crazy about that or
because that to me feels like you have
to put your finger on that and say why
doesn't the two State solution exists
the first argument I think is going to
be Israel has no right to exist they
they occupied this territory and then
I'm like I get
it Cyprus again horrible [ __ ] if you
want to get the the people that I know
and love in tears all you need to do is
talk about that day so I I have seen a
similar heartache up
close but it that it's just that's going
to be militaristic right that's that's
guns death Bloodshed and is that really
a game you want to play when Israel's a
way more accomplished military probably
not do you want it spreading wider in
the region speaking as a guy in America
so discount my opinion because I'm not
in it that sounds horrible to me um
and again let me leak my bias I'm making
the Bas assumption that we should be
trying to avoid death if if that isn't
on somebody's bingo card that's where
we'll disconnect we'll be two ships
passing night anyway so I put my finger
on that that feels like the thing that
has to be addressed and if the punchline
is from The River To The Sea all this
left is military
so yeah what where where does any of
that thinking go wrong in terms of just
finding the thing that we have to say we
have to understand this thing I don't
know that I would label any of that
thinking as wrong there's a couple of
places where I would I think it's worth
clarifying
so like I mentioned earlier I I tend to
look at everything through a lens of
practicality right value
fact vast versus truth right and you
made a base assumption about me earlier
you tried to verify it that I'm Pro
Palestine I've never I I pull heavy from
my Espionage background and one of the
key things that was taught to me by the
director of CIA by General Petraeus was
you don't disclose your position because
if you just as soon as you disclose your
position you've disclosed your position
I was mentioning that to you earlier
about information superiority right I've
never disclose my position I should have
asked you 10% questions I will dis I
will disclose my position for you oh
word right so impact Theory exclusive
for anybody who cares I am actually
pro-israel I am actually
pro-israel but the reason I'm pro-israel
is not what I think people will
understand I am pro-israel because I am
very matter of factly pro- Amer I Am pro
United States the country that I think
should remain the dominant superpower in
the world is the United States to Aid
the United States in that
objective we must ensure the survival of
Israel and the Israeli States
practically speaking not ideologically
not based on history and and Justice and
everything else what's happening to the
Palestinian people is an atrocity it's
it's a dis it's a terrible sad thing
that has forced them into a path of
revolutionary terrorism very similar to
what we saw when when the United States
was rejecting the Civil Rights Movement
when women weren't allowed to vote and
they turned to violence like we've seen
this before and it is it is a sad tragic
thing what's happened to Palestine what
has happened to Palestine what is yet to
happen to Palestine all of that being
acknowledged as an American who wants to
see American Primacy in the future we
have to stand up and support the Israeli
State having a strategic economic and
Military partner like
Israel sit next to our strategic and
Military partner that is Jordan in the
Middle East gives us an
incredible economic and Military
advantage over the entire globe that we
cannot sacrifice IDE ology aside if we
want to protect American lives we have
to ensure the long-term longevity
support and close relationships with the
Israeli people and with the country of
Israel that's that is my official
position what I find is so sad is that
there are so few pro-israel voices that
are giving any kind of validation to the
Palestinian plight so I want to be one
of those voices that can say we must
partner and support Israel and the way
that we partner and support them is by
finding a way for them to like protect
and and defend themselves without
turning to this kind of Destruction
because as long as they turn down this
path of Destruction they're isolating
themselves from everyone else in the
world and that makes it so that we have
a very hard time standing next to them
as the beacon of freedom in the world we
have a hard time supporting Israel in
the face of everybody else including all
the countries of the United Nation and
NATO who look at us and say h how can
you stand by and let this happen how can
you support this how can you fund this
how can you encourage this not to
mention the corruption challenges that
Israel has that's so closely align with
the corruption challenges of our own
past presidential you know hopefuls and
presidents that we're trying to work
through ourselves between netanyahu's
corruption and Trump's corruption right
it's a mess and it's it's a sad mess but
the but the bottom line practical
element here is that Israel encourages
and expands National Security objectives
for the United States that doesn't mean
we should call Hamas terrorists just
because we don't want to call them
revolutionary terrorists which is really
more akin to what Malcolm X was
revolutionary terrorism right we don't
want to go down that road because it's
too nuanced for the American people
instead we're going to put big
Billboards up in major cities that say
Hamas is not just Israel's problem right
Hamas is your problem too so I say all
that because my conclusion is the same
as your conclusion the world the globe
needs to broker a two-state solution and
in a and in order to incens ofizzina
their infrastructure their their
technology their their ability to
self-govern let's give them everything
they need if that means that they want
to have close ties with the Arab world
that's exactly what the Arab world has
wanted forever that's why Saudi Arabia
and Qatar and the UAE rush to the aid of
the Palestinians so let's make that
happen and when when we negotiate land
let's find a way to make sure that
they're neighboring a Arab Ally like
Jordan or Egypt let's find a way to make
that happen let's make it a world
problem instead of saying it's their
problem because every pair of brothers
who has ever had an argument over
business they've needed an arbitrator to
help them they've needed the help of
others to come to a meaningful way of
resolving their conflict I'm not trying
to oversimplify it but I am saying like
a strong Israel is in America's best
interest a strong peaceful Middle East
is in America's best interest a strong
Muslim world
that counterbalances Iran is in
America's best interest so we need to
find a way to let people know that this
is a more complex issue than what
they're hearing and we're not afraid of
the complexity let's lean into the
complexity and let's solve it together
because the more that America can
influence peace around the world the
more that Erica the more that America is
an influential power in the world and
when we don't step into our influence we
leave a vacuum that allows our largest
adversaries Russia China Iran to step
into that vacuum instead and that's
exactly what we're seeing in the global
world right now we're seeing not only
are those countries stepping into the
vacuum that we're leaving behind but
they're allying together so much so that
even Hollywood movies like Leave the
World Behind is literally showing what
would happen if North Korea and Iran
worked together to cut off the United
States that's why there were elements of
both languages in the movie itself right
spoiler alert but my point is if even
modern media if even Hollywood is
showing this division from east to west
that goes to show how much it's real
because art reflects
reality okay so one thing I think we
have to acknowledge if if we're going to
at least put all the pieces on the table
and I just want to reiterate I don't
have the hubus to think I the man to
turn to to solve this problem trust me
um I would turn to you I thought that
was a really good solution man a good
solution I don't think we have a real
one yet uh because of something you
taught me which is that you really have
to get in the mind of your enemy and
every assumption I have I know is coming
from my own frame of reference which
could not be more Western could not be
more American um and they don't want the
same things I want so I'll ask the m
arguably the hardest question of all how
much does the cultural mindset of um the
Palestinians
or uh the
Israelis is this a a cultural Collision
from just the way that they view how
things ought to be that you're just
never going to be able to deal with that
or is this um well Iran is throwing so
much money around they're just doing
their bidding like what what is the
point of like if I'm Iran and I want to
um
destabilize Israel and get the world to
turn on them what's the lever that I
pull to get the Palestinian people to do
what I want them to do is it a religious
lever that I pull is it something else
so in the in the radicalization process
one of the things that were taught at
CIA is that there's a there's a ladder
of radicalization an actual process for
how you radicalize and extremist and
that's an extremist whether they're a
Christian extremist or an ethnic
extremist or a Muslim extremist there's
a ladder of extremism and the first step
is validating an
injustice it's the first step because
when people believe that there's a
perceived Injustice and nobody validates
that Injustice then they are conditioned
they are they are primed to believe that
there was no Injustice and they're angry
about
nothing so the first step in a
radicalization process is to validate an
injustice it's independent of religion
right this was done to you it should
have never been done to you and then the
next step in the radicalization ladder
is to create the aggressor who's guilty
of the
Injustice this should have never
happened to you it happened to you
because of this villain it's a story and
now you're your un your Injustice has
been validated and there is a group that
executed that Injustice on you the next
step in the lad is to say there are
others like you who have been equally
treated in this unjust way by the same
group so now the person who's walking up
this ladder is like I do have a reason
to be angry they are the enemy and
there's this group that I can join
against the same enemy and you can see
how this ladder just keeps on going
until it ends with you strap a bomb to
yourself and you run into their church
and you run into their synagogue and you
blow yourself up and now you win you can
see how the latter plays out
right the way that you defeat extremism
is by taking out the first step in the
ladder you have to take away the
Injustice
unfortunately what's happened since
October 7th has created
generational repercussions there will
not be a Palestinian for the next three
generations who does not have a visceral
memory a dead brother a dead sister a
dead child a dead mother a dead
grandmother a dead grandfather Aunts
Uncles there have been so many killed in
this attack in this counter attack since
October 7th that it's it's left a
generational
scar that is going to
be 50 years worth of work for everybody
who gets in on the action to try to
resolve this problem we will have to
face and accept that there was an
injustice that was carried out and that
we can resolve it so that instead of
taking people up a ladder of
radicalization we can take them through
a ladder of healing a ladder of of
resolution
right what happened here what is
continuing to happen every day is
fixable we can't fix what's happened
already but we can fix what we do moving
forward we can give people an option we
can give people Solutions give them
outcomes 60 Minutes can change a life if
you give them an outcome so what
outcomes can we reach that that changes
the whole trajectory of what's happening
in the Middle East we have to be willing
to ask ourselves that question and where
the rubber really meets the road where
it gets really uncomfortable for us is
that we have to be willing to accept
that mistakes were made policy mistakes
narrative mistakes military mistakes and
that we are going to pay the
reputational and financial penalty of
those mistakes that were made we just we
have to do that if we're going to really
invest in a solution to what's happening
in the Middle East unfortunately it is
just easier when your neighbors are
fighting to just stay out of the fight
but if we really want to stand as the
leader of the Free World we have to find
a way to create freedom for both peoples
in the Middle East e we have to be
invested in both peoples in the Middle
East not to mention the fact that the
closer we get to the Muslim world the
more secure we will be against Islamic
extremism because we won't be isolated
we won't stand opposite Islam and and
Muslim Evolution and Muslim development
we will find a way to partner with it
and and and not be a world divided by
boundaries and faith and religion but a
world that's connected by a common
belief in humanity and connection we can
do that it will be expensive it will be
timec consuming it will be a lot of
eating crow and Humble Pie but if we can
do it for 50
years that doesn't seem like a long time
consider the fact that Israel didn't
even exist before
1948 in the in the annals of time
they're less than 100 years old they're
still a young country we're still a
young country right if we can evolve and
change and come to our adolescence then
certainly they can evolve and change
before they even reach their adolescence
again maybe that's too IDE ideological
but um I think that it is probably too
um it's too idealistic maybe it's too
poana so but it it begs the next
question which is okay um and using
enemy me is is not probably ideal
language which again is a step in this
whole process of thinking through
something well understanding how you
have to change your own frame of
reference which I think is going to be a
big part of this but um if I were
Consulting on this project uh I would be
really trying to understand okay what
what is the mindset of the people that
I'm dealing with what are the things
that I know I'm not going to be able to
alter so like the religious angle I'm
going to have to find a way for them to
see like a connection or to ignore it
I'm not going to be able to get them to
adopt each other's way of thinking okay
so um I still come back to we have to
have a goal I think the go the the goal
has to be um that the Palestinians feel
they are in control of their own destiny
I just really look that is a western
notion that that not everybody in the
world agrees with so I'm very open to if
that's my fundamental flaw in my
thinking but my thinking is bu upon that
that for them to really have hope in
their future and to believe that their
children's lives will be better that
they have to feel a sense that they own
their own destiny they control their own
lives they can build the nation the way
that they want to and uh so I need to
understand given that the you're not you
have to remove the idea of we're just
going to get rid of the Jewish people
you are inviting them to fight tooth and
nail uh and they're currently so much
better at that than you that it's just a
death nail uh so I would take that off
the table in terms of it's not going to
lead to the outcome I'm going for anyway
uh so if we take that off the table then
I need to understand why the two-state
solution continues to be rejected
because if it's for religious reasons
then we have to we have to either
confront that directly and create a new
narrative one thing that I think people
underestimate is the need for off-ramps
and this was something I heard people
very wisely talk about with Russia and
Ukraine people were very angry with
Putin for invading a Sovereign Nation
and rightly so but if you don't give him
an offramp yep where he can save face
and look good to his people you are
guaranteeing an escalation correct and
so while it's gross and it's icky and
[ __ ] hateful and nobody wants to do
it it's certainly going to save lives
again what's your goal and if your goal
is I'm perfectly happy for every single
Ukrainian to Die Trying to um push back
Russia okay then uh if that's your goal
then you're making choices that make
sense with that if that isn't your goal
then putting on the table an offramp for
Putin um would be wise because both
zalinski and Putin need off-ramps to be
able to go to their people and say see
we got a victory and so if I were
helping advise or negotiate I'd just be
thinking about that like how do I help
them each say face even if I think one
or both of them are horrendous I'm still
gonna give them an offramp because it's
the only way this is gonna happen so I'm
thinking okay like what are our
off-ramps here how do both sides get to
save face and feel like okay um we quote
unquote won the thing and that there's
an empowering narrative for both of them
so that that has to be found so whether
that is um I'm reading a book right now
called Silk
Roads really interesting
book a pretty and I don't know how
accurate is so full disclosure but uh a
really interesting take on history about
how um East and West have sort of bumped
into each other over and over throughout
time and that the author was painting
this really fascinating picture where uh
there were a time where there wasn't
seen to be a big gap between Muslims and
uh Jews and I found that very
interesting and they weren't really
bothered by the differences in each
other's Faith so anyway I would look
into that to see is there really
something there where we can paint a a
far more United Vision married to an
economic reality because if we can make
their lives better quickly then suddenly
that becomes very interesting and so
marrying it to your idea of okay how do
we uh get real infrastructure built so
that their lives really are better
whether that's education better
hospitals better roads I I don't know
there I have nothing but ignorance to
offer but there is a thing you can do
that builds a um a stable entity where
you can get food shelter water education
uh and Life starts moving in the right
direction so what are those things how
do you avoid corruption all that of
course would be hyper complicated um and
I don't know enough about the Abraham
Accords again I'm I'm very much a
headline reader there but given how much
enthusiasm was going into that and its
economic in nature can you get that back
on track but you have to do something
where they you really are giving them a
a super tangible win yeah the the thing
that's missing I feel like in a lot of
the conversations is to understand that
what's happening in Israel is a proxy
conflict between Iran and the United
States and what does Iran want Iran
wants ultimately what Iran wants is a
Shia Crescent something they've been
after for a long time is it ideological
in nature is it power in nature it's
it's power and land mass it really is a
caliphate I don't know what a caliphate
is a
Islamic uh Homeland that stretches
Beyond Iran right and and is Shia Islam
in nature not Sunni Islam which is the
predominant Islam throughout the the
Kian Arabic State speaking States so
that's really what Iran wants and they
they struggle to get that and the
largest counterbalance to Iran isn't the
United States it's Saudi Arabia so when
you actually hone in on the Middle East
the two big powers like counterbalancing
each other are Saudi Arabia and Iran the
United States is just an outside play
saudi's a lot bigger than Iran though by
GP a lot bigger by GDP a lot bigger by
land mass however the Bread Basket of
the Middle East is Iran the Bread Basket
of that that's so significant it means
that UAE and Oman and Jordan and Saudi
Arabia all list Iran as an enemy but
they all get their agriculture from Iran
the Cucumbers the fresh fruit the
vegetables it's a carve out so that we
can continue they can continue to have
uh agricultural trade with Iran another
thing that people don't realize is that
there's carve outs all the time that's
that is the power of Economics That's
The Power of Economics because Iran then
could just choke them all off correct
but they want the money correct Iran
wants some some form of income and
revenue yeah and they've been sanctioned
in so many ways so it's just to your
point about needing an economic and a
religious
solution I don't fully disagree but I
would prioritize economics first because
if you can incentivize people
economically economics runs the world oh
for sure if you can incentivize people
economically to cooperate they will find
a way for their religions to also
cooperate right they will find a way to
say hey you know what we all come from
the same Papa Bear we all came from
everybody all the nations they come from
us like let's get along let's do that
right that's something that France can't
say that's something United States can't
say United States definitely can't say
that we come from anybody we're the
bastard chill children of everybody we
just flocked here right so there's
there's absolutely a solution there
ideologically what isn't there is a
solution economically and it's not just
about economically incentivizing the
Palestinians it's also about
economically incentivizing the Israelis
it takes two sets of economic stimulus
two sets of economic benefits and even
better if they can be economic benefits
that are comingled right so the the more
success in Israel the more UC in
Palestine the more success in Palestine
the more success in Israel right create
in a sense of Independence among them
unfortunately creating independent
Partners is something the United States
is very bad at we since World War II
have specialized in creating dependent
Partners that's why NATO doesn't really
like us very much anymore that's why
France and Spain and Germany are
actively opponents of the United States
in NATO because they realize that what
we've really done is made all of Europe
dependent on the United States for their
technology for their trade for their
financial uh solvency and now the same
thing is it's difficult for the United
States to adopt a different sort of
policy than essentially economic
bullying uh and that's something we're
going to have to learn how to do right
it's it's something that I
think a pre an old generation of
capitalists believed that you had to be
the biggest in order to be safe
what I think the new era of capitalists
is learning is that we can
be
Innovative successful financially uh
independent financially Sol like solvent
we can be a lot of things and still be
totally safe because it's only when
you're competing for the top space that
you're really at risk nobody really
cares about everybody else who's just
even people who are thriving people
Overlook all the people who are thriving
they focus on the very poor and they
focus on the very rich so I mean running
a I I hope to one day run a $50 million
business and in the eyes of business
that's still small I think the actual
cut off for small business is $45
million a year think about that you can
run a $35 million business and still be
classified as a small business I'm not
trying to compete with hundred billion
dollar businesses or not trying to
compete up I want to make an impact I
want to build wealth I want to make a
difference in the world I want to leave
a legacy for my children much like many
entrepreneurs we want to make a splash
but we don't need to make the biggest
splash the United States wants I believe
that the United States is still the best
option of all the bad options were the
best bad option for how the world should
lean through superpower
dominance until a better solution
presents itself I'm going to continue
investing in American privacy it's why
my company is an American company and I
couldn't be prouder to pay American
taxes right because my business is
helping to fund a stronger America that
makes me very proud it makes me very
happy but there's plenty of Indians and
singaporeans and and ties who are also
very proud that their business is
running is building their
country proxy wars uh how serious is
this there is there are days where I
wake up and I feel like no for real for
real like we are a couple errant
missiles from this escalating and World
War III like kicks off in Earnest and
the way that I see that playing out is
if if Iran comes out of the shadows and
says you've gone to far like we have to
step in and do something and then
America has to step in to protect Israel
to make good on their promises and then
China uh starts watching that and goes
ah the US has drained its surpluses in
Ukraine and now now in uh Israel now is
the time for us to move on Taiwan they
move on Taiwan and now all hell has
broken loose and you legitimately have a
World War and this is one where man I'm
a lay person that can draw a pretty
believable path to how we get there and
I can only imagine somebody that
actually is uh forget what you call it
like red in or whatever like they're
they're getting like the intelligent
briefs be like yeah yeah that's that's
one of the 17 ways that this could
escalate and really pop off um am I
falling into
conspiracy uh or are we really at a
tenuous moment we are really at a
tenuous moment that is that is a yes
hard yes we are a tenuous moment however
what I would say is that what you're
falling into is not conspiracy it's
something we called
catastrophizing you're you're Paving the
road catastrophic step by catastrophic
step meaning that everybody turns to the
most destructive of all solutions before
taking a previous step right so uh for
example for someone for another country
to attack The Sovereign for another
state actor to attack the sovereignty of
the United States is something nobody
wants to do the deterrence that the
United States has through their military
through their economic power through
their reach that that is in that what we
call a deterrent is so powerful it
prevents people from taking that
catastrophic step the other thing you
have to account for is that not every
culture approaches conflict the way that
America approaches conflict we are a
Waring culture so we're like blow the
[ __ ] out of them we're going to bomb
we're going to kill we're going to shoot
we're going to get boots on the ground
we need tanks we need rifles we need
everything right
sunsu does not operate that way that the
entire Chinese poit Bureau the whole
Chinese pla doesn't operate that way
they're not a boots on the ground kick
them in whatever else they are a long
slow death by a Thousand Cuts we are a
hacksaw chainsaw shoot them up cut them
up country right so you've also got Iran
in there you got Russia in there you've
got Israel in there you've got Saudi
Arabia in there you've got France
Germany UK all these other big players
they're all in there with their own take
on how conflict should escalate and how
conflict should be carried out so when
you catastrophize you take the
presumptive path that everybody leaps to
the most catastrophic decision whereas
you have to bake into that some level of
probability the highest probability is
that no country will attack the
sovereignty of the United States highest
probability right nobody will attack the
sovereignty of the United States so you
and me are safe inside American borders
that does not mean that Americans are
safe outside of American borders but
then you start getting into the realm of
extremism and targeted violence against
Americans because of IDE olical or other
purposes that becomes proxy right so now
when Americans are attacked in kinasa uh
Democratic Republic of Congo simply
because they're American and they're
attacked by congales who are funded by
you name the the country you Russia uh
South North Korea like whatever Iran now
that becomes murky murky is exactly what
the world wants when it comes to
conflict with the United States because
if it's murky theit unit States has a
hard time justifying any kind of
response that goes state to state
because it's There's No Smoking Gun
right it's becomes just difficult enough
there's plausible deniability and that's
that's exactly what you're seeing play
out here
so again going back to the whole idea
you when you reference World War III
happening when most people reference
World War II happening what they're
actually talking about is a nuclear war
similar to how World War II
ended Wars evolve like people evolve and
if anything if you've seen the evolution
of Technology you can imagine how much
more advanced World War III will be than
World War II all wars from civil to
World War I were all fought Vietnam and
Beyond were all fought over economics so
if there's a more economically viable
way to execute Warfare that is how
people will execute Warfare proxy wars
are a very economically viable way to
execute Wars economic Wars are a very
economically viable way to execute Wars
when the United States cut off Russian
bank accounts as part of their sanctions
against Russia and they cut off access
to Russian funds that were denominated
in euros and dollars that was an
economic Warfare move when China floods
the market with US Dollars and buys un
or runman B off the market to change
their valuation that is an that's an act
of economic Warfare that is conflict
that is so much more cheaper and viable
and creates less
uh less stress and uh public response
than actually sending your citizens to
die at the end of a at the end of a
bullet or a rocket launch right so we
have to accept that the probability is
much higher that we will continue to see
increasing proxy conflict increasing
economic conflict and solutions other
than what we call Interstate conflict or
conflict between two Sovereign Nation
States it's very surprising what Russia
did in Ukraine very surprising because
intra Interstate War like that has
almost been like eradicated the the last
time that a country invaded another
sovereign country was when the United
States invaded Afghanistan in
2003 right there's 20 something years
where no country had invaded another
country lots of Civil War but no
interstate so lots of intrastate war
Civil War but no Interstate War so it
was a a huge turn away from popular
military Doctrine but you know Putin was
playing certain odds and and I think
what we're all discovering now is what
he really cares about is eastern Ukraine
where you know the predominance of their
energy flow goes through and and that's
what he's got right now so I would say
that if you take the catastrophizing off
the table and you look at probabilities
we will continue to see more proxy wars
in more third world countries where the
United States has to fund one side and
China or Russia or or Iran have to fund
the opposite side and they'll keep vying
for influence because the economically
speaking the country with the most
markets to expand into will be the
future economic Powerhouse of the world
and economic power is what becomes the
investment for military power and that's
why the United States is dominant we've
had the economic power to invest in a
modern large military only country who's
competing with us is China and the only
reason they even have a chance to
compete with us is because for 20 years
we were heads down focusing on the
global war on terror China didn't
participate in the global war on terror
they spent 20 years with their heads up
stealing secrets and building
infrastructure so that when we finally
looked up we realized oh [ __ ] like
they're growing fast and we got to
change something Elon mus says over the
last I think 20 years that the
architecture in China has become far
more impressive than what's happening in
the
US what do you think the US would look
like had we taken all that foreign aid
that we've been sending to war War s and
not just foreign aid but to fight the
wars but also to proxy war um would it
look dramatically different yeah I think
the United States would look very very
different I think we would see I'm not
saying that I think it would look
necessarily better but I am saying it
would look very different keep in mind
that a lot of the investment that went
into Chinese infrastructure excuse me
was investment into uh State
surveillance
systems tracking populations um tracking
State IDs
making sure people stayed in their Lane
and were only given the opportunities
that the state just thought they
deserved I don't think that that's the
direction we as Americans would want to
go I hope not but if we were to have
taken the hundreds of billions that we
spent in our Wars abroad and put them
into National Security and other uh
devices here in the US for all we know
that that could have been one of the
options that we pursued was a large
scale Statewide security system
that uh that on the piggyback of that is
a state surveillance system very similar
to what you see actually in UAE and
Saudi
Arabia that's really interesting when
you first said that it would look
different but you're not sure it would
look better I was like where is he going
with this that is very interesting and
yes right now people seem to be way more
interested in safety than they do
Freedom Y which it's funny because as a
kid I mean we have a state New Hampshire
if I'm not mistaken Live Free or Die
is the state mot and people now are like
what do you mean like of safety is more
important than Freedom like it's it's
flipped so hard from what it was like
when I was a kid when I was a kid man it
was like it was all about that like Give
Me Freedom or give me death like I
remember uh I think that's the line that
uh oh no uh in Braveheart when you said
you can take my life but you can't take
our freedom or something like that um
man it's different vibe now did I uh and
correct tell me if I've if I'm repeating
myself but did I walk you through the
civilization pyramid the last time I was
here ooh I've heard you in so many
different places I can't tell you if it
was here or not but please give us a
refresher so I feel like what's
happening is we're seeing the
civilization pyramid actually play out
and and the civilization pyramid is a
pyramid that talks about exactly what
you're what you're describing the
exchange of freedom and security the
bottom of the pyramid is all of our
individualism right you hunt and gather
for you I hunt and gather for me you
live in your cave I live in my cave and
I don't I don't have any say in what you
do you don't have any say on what I do
and if we need to fight then let's fight
to the death individualism at the bottom
end of that pyramid where we all started
where some countries still very much are
right moving up the pyramid the next
tier is tribalism which is like hey our
caves are next to each other you're
really good at hunting and gather
hunting I'm really good at Gathering
let's team up and now we'll capture IES
because if you're ever sick I can make
sure I collect enough food for both of
us and if I'm ever sick you can make
sure there's enough food for both of us
so now as a tribe we're safer and to
hell with the other tribes if they come
across the river if they come if they
start hunting our buffalo we'll kill
them so it's a step above individualism
it gives us some efficiency because we
have scalability it gives us some
security because we have each other and
we're United under the banner of a tribe
the next and final peer uh
uh level of the pyramid is the state and
as you move up from individualism to the
state you start to give up your
independent freedoms but in exchange the
state is able to push down scalable
efficiencies and solutions so now
there's a standing military that keeps
you safe now there's there's Public
Utilities that bring you water now
there's hospitals that bring you
medicine now there's insurance now
there's businesses now there's bakeries
now there's all this stuff that the
state helps to facilitate so that you
don't have to depend on your tribe in
fact if you want to live in California
or in Austin Texas or in Florida or in
New York you can pick your tribe you can
pick where you want to go because you're
all part of the state if you take the
state off the top of the pyramid and you
move the rest of the pyramid aside you
have another pyramid and that's
different levels of the state right so
at the bottom tier of the state you
basically have your your uh organized
State that's very the government's very
small and it gives people maximum
freedom and you know it's your it's your
uh uh political parties that don't want
to interfere or interfere with anybody
else's political party and then as you
move up you have what we consider to be
like uh conservative State Management
which is you know we have enough
government but not too much government
it creates guidelines but not heavily
regulate not heavily regulated we focus
on maximizing efficiency we minimize uh
policing our people right and then you
have the highest level of the state
which is very much your kind of
socialist authoritarian state where
everything is regulated everything is
heavily managed everything is heavily
policed so when you put this smaller
pyramid back on top of the original
pyramid you have six levels of
civilization basically right the theme
with all of it is that as you climb the
pyramid you are giving up freedoms in
exchange for efficiencies the beautiful
thing about the United States is that we
are a country where we slow down our
political processes because we have two
parties that are always fighting and
vying right so that forces us to slow
down which usually results in a more
popular more wellth thought out solution
even though we haven't quite seen it
play out that way recently but we slow
down the velocity so we make better
stronger decisions that are more time
time tested but we also give individuals
the right to move up and down the
pyramid as they choose so if you want to
be a prep in Kentucky that lives off the
grid you go right down the pyramid and
there you go you can if you want to be a
hyper you know socialists you know
publicly declared communist that lives
in whatever New York you can and both
people are protected by the laws of the
land but they live at different parts of
the pyramid so to your point I feel like
we are absolutely at this precipice in
world events where we have to kind of
decide what we want to do as individuals
but the larger question is as
individuals we all also have a say in
what we do as a nation and that is going
to be the larger impact on what we leave
behind yeah and I'm
super I'm interested to be sure I am a
little worried about what's going to
happen in 2024 I won't lie um if it ends
up being a trump Biden runoff what do
you think happens especially if Trump
wins I think that if you're not
preparing for that eventuality it would
be wise to prepare for that eventuality
highest the highest two
probabilities are that either Trump wins
the presidency or Biden wins the
presidency so just speaking practically
again mentally as a business owner as a
father as a husband I'm preparing
for one of these two things there's a
90% chance that one of these two things
is going to happen so let me be ready
for that and then the last 10% I'll let
surprise me right but I mean who knows
it's it's difficult it's also important
to understand that we all focus on the
president the
president what powers the president has
are granted to them by the Legislative
Branch we've gone through about a
30-year period where our legislative
branch has been giving more power to the
executive branch specifically because
the legislative branch is trying to
cover their own ass they want to be
lifetime legislators they don't want to
be responsible for the people and they
don't want to be accountable to the
people so instead they want to be able
to say you voted me into office and the
president doesn't let me do my job
because I gave him all of my authority
so part of what we need to do is see the
legislative branch take back the power
from the president which they can do
with a vote the president doesn't need
to give them power back they can take
power back but they do need to give the
president power he can't take power from
the legislative branch so in both cases
whether it's Biden or whether it's Trump
the real impact there is just how the
world sees the United States and then
the fact that both presidents presidents
have the right to build their cabinet
however they choose to build their
cabinets so they both are going to bring
in their cronies they're both going to
bring in their yes people they're both
going to bring in people who are who are
uh biased towards their own political
Futures they're not nobody really at the
top is thinking about what's in the best
interest of the American people because
we've created
this self-licking ice cream cone where
where
politics uh is about rewarding the
politician with politics instead of
there's there's no incentive to serve
the American people especially not when
the American people are split like we're
split right now so it's it's tough man
it's tough and I I will say that what my
wife and I keep an eye on is less it's
less about whether or not Donald Trump
becomes president and it's more about
how will
individuals exercise their legal Powers
how will individuals exercise their
civic
responsibilities when the outcome is
announced will that's a fancy way of
saying something yeah will they will
they Revolt there we go or will they go
to the [ __ ] table and vote every two
years on the lowest levels of government
so that you can actually affect the
change in the government I it's it's I
don't I it breaks my heart when I see
Americans [ __ ] complain and pick it let
alone when I see them shoot and raid and
invade right all of that stuff is
something that we should be passed what
what we should be doing now is
exercising our Civic rights our Civic
duties our Civic Powers because we have
the power to affect everything up the
chain if we just exercise it if we're
willing to
let things slow down and if we're
willing to cut out some of the volume
and actually do things the way that has
always made America great we've always
been stronger because we have a
bureaucratic process that allows us to
slow things down allows us all the time
in the space to learn and ingest and
accept and internalize what we believe
to be true when we move at lightning
speed we can be duped we can be confused
we can be tricked let ourselves slow
down embrace the fact that we slow down
if we didn't slow down we'd be [ __ ]
China an authoritarian rule we're
literally things change at the drop of
one person's Public Announcement we
don't want that we don't want that we
want something different yeah I mean I'm
100% on board with that so as you look
at this with your analyst eyes um what
do you think will be the reaction to
let's say a trump getting elected
because my concern is uh when watching
the Sam Harris thing happen on the
internet I don't know how closely paid
attention to that but basically the
entire internet turned on what I think
is one of the smartest most thoughtful
people I think he's wrong but to your
point about you want to triangulate
anyway you're not just going to listen
to one person Sam is right about so many
things um but he I I believe I
understand Sam maybe better than a lot
of people in that the thing that Sam
believes is that Donald Trump is an
existential threat and when someone
becomes an existential threat it could
wipe out Humanity I want to be very
clear about what an existential threat
is uh that it's a whole new set of rules
baby and you do whatever you have to do
and that if Sam who is incredibly smart
and extremely thoughtful and I think a
hyperm moral person um but I also think
he's wrong about this so my thing is
okay I think the real problem we have is
we don't agree on what constitutes an
existential threat I actually don't know
that we disagree about what to do in the
face of a true existential threat but
like when I look at Trump getting
elected I'm like please Jesus no but at
the same time I don't see it as an
existential threat so and I look at like
we we had four years with them it what
the world didn't end everybody like but
at the same time other people look at it
and like bro we we dodged a nuclear
weapon like what
like it could be the end of humanity if
he gets elected again that freaks me out
the fact that people think hey him
getting elected could end the world now
if this were like Fringe
crazies I'd be like whatever yeah this
is coming from some of the smartest
people I know that are they're very good
at thinking through problems so of
course Part of Me Goes is he an
existential threat like I don't think
I'm the Arbiter right so I'm captain
distrust yourself but as so the only
thing I'm saying is when I analyze the
situation there are enough people that
believe that he is an actual existential
threat that if he gets elected I think
you have a problem I don't think uh look
I'm a big believer that America's
rakishly resilient I don't think it
collapses but do I think that at a
minimum we take another step towards the
Civil War yes I really do that that one
really freaks me out like I I can buy
into the proxy wars that World War III
is going to be fought very
surreptitiously there won't be as much
hot to the war okay don't love it still
very high stakes still makes me very
tense but that's a lot better than say a
World War II um but dude in the summer
of 2020 I sat on my balcony and watched
La
burn and that wasn't even around
existential threats right so
yeah I don't know and I don't know
what's worse and again I'll ask you with
your your CIA analyst haton what's worse
Trump getting elected or Trump not
getting
elected so I'll start by saying that I
disagree with all the smart people that
you're referencing right now and I would
gladly who think he's an existential yes
I would gladly sit in front of anybody
who believes that Trump is an
existential threat and have a healthy
debate on any topic they want to talk
about because I have actually seen
existential threats and Trump is not
that can you paint an existential threat
picture an existential
threat is is imminent it means that it
is the last step before the holistic
destruction the existence destroying
from
existence the the Target that it is
threatening right
so let's consider a battleship right a
Hypersonic cruise missile will destroy a
battleship right it is not an
existential threat to the battleship
even though it will destroy the
battleship it is not an existential
threat to the battleship because if even
one soldier
survives the memory of that battleship
in current memory still exists not to
mention all of the documentation about
the battleship existing and then they
reild a new one they give it the same
moniker and it's right back in service
again right it is a perilous threat it
is not an existential threat truly
existential threats are things that will
wipe you off the face of the Earth right
Iran wants to wipe Israel off the face
of the earth that is an existential
threat and when they say that when they
announced that they were talking about
Israel the state and Jews they want to
destroy them Nazi Germany posed an
existential threat to the Jewish faith
literally a systematic commitment to
destroying an entire generation like the
entire existence of it forever taking it
off the world the world stage forever
that is an existential threat what
happens is that we have become spoiled
in our
terminology catastrophizing has become
so common that now to get people
emotional to get people to move on their
on their beliefs you have to ramp
everything up to get past the volume and
the velocity of data you have to say the
next most extreme thing when you say the
most extreme thing long enough if you
call yourself stupid enough times guess
what you start to believe you start to
believe you're stupid so when you tell
people enough times it's an existential
threat it's an existential threat it's
an existential threat you start to
actually believe wow maybe it really is
an existential threat without stopping
to
think in one presidency no president
Trump or anybody no president can
disband
two of the three branches the only thing
the president can really do is write an
executive order about the Executive
Branch if our Congress exists We Exist
if our judicial branch exists we exist
right and the other two branches are
there to keep the executive branch in
power so one four-year presidency one
eight-year presidency two eight-year
presidencies with President Trump is not
with a future president Trump is not
going to be the end of America could it
do significant damage absolutely but
it's not an existential threat it's just
isn't it doesn't threaten to end the
United States it threatens to make life
difficult but lots of things threaten to
make life difficult we can't guarantee
that Trump comes into office and
somehow everything changes for the
better who knows we don't we don't
actually know there's there's a term
that we use in in uh intelligence
operations called The Cone of
uncertainty and if you imagine like a
funnel or a cone or you know a pennant
whatever it's a it's a certain shape the
timeline of no reality goes right up to
the beginning of the cone and then where
you see the actual cone that becomes an
area of predictable confidence that you
can guess within but where that cone
ends everything past the cone is totally
unpredictable you have no confidence
about what will happen one way or the
other so unless there is an existential
threat the threatening the existance and
future existence of something within
that cone then you can't really take it
as a as a level of confidence one way or
the other so my recommendation to those
people catastrophizing and everybody
who's feeling that pressure that anxiety
have a plan for When Donald Trump is
announced as the winner of the
presidency have a plan for it hope and
vote against it all you want but don't
let it happen without a plan for what to
do next we have a plan for what to do
next our plan takes us out of the United
States if Donald Trump becomes the
president and our country takes a turn
for the worst we're leaving the United
States we already have the plan if if
Joseph Biden wins the presidency and the
United States takes a turn for the worse
we're leaving the United States that's
our plan doesn't mean that we're not
proud to be Americans it just means that
where we are in our lives with our
children with our business with what
we're trying to do in our personal
mission it is not to fix the United
States right now we'll let other people
who are passionate about that fix the
United States right now we're going to
go grow our family and take care of our
family grow our business business grow
our impact pay our taxes and make sure
the United States has the resources it
needs to get through its
adolescence but other people are very
dedicated to being part of the solution
right now and I applaud those people and
I want to give them the resources they
need to be that level of impact it's
interesting when you said earlier that
um you were you really believed in the
supremacy of the US I knew that you plan
to leave I thought it was a longer
timeline than that
um that's very interesting so that tells
me that you think that uh well let me
not put words in your mouth are you
saying that if one of those two gets
elected that there is a distressingly
high probability of a bad turn yes I
would agree with that statement
completely okay wa regardless of which
two we're picking between two bad
options and that's just where we are
right now unfortunately I think there
are good options on the table who one of
the options that I would actually
personally love to see take the
presidency is Nikki Haley I don't even
know who that is I hear her and that's
why she's not gon to win so I hear her
name all the time I I'm going to have to
watch something I don't know what she
looks like never heard her voice I think
of all the things that the country could
really benefit from right now it's a
female level-headed Centrist and even
though she runs on the Republican ticket
she is very much a her her narrative is
a very Centrist narrative and really
like the idea of our country kind of
coming out of this 8-year
Disaster by showing that one of the
things that makes us so powerful is our
diversity and I think we are at a time
now where a strong female leader would
be welcomed here unfortunately I think
that that Hillary Clinton in many of the
years that she was running wasn't the
right fit at the right time I think
Nikki Haley might be different than that
but that doesn't mean she's got any
traction that doesn't mean it's going to
happen but it is one of those 10%
outcomes where all of a sudden I see
like sunlight instead of more rain and
and snow did she run last cycle no it's
the first time she's run and
unfortunately she's showing a lot of the
a lot of the uh um
neopit Mak classic mistakes yeah arguing
over petty stuff and debates and blah
blah blah blah blah and not really
showing that she's above all that and to
be president you got to be above all
that frivolity either you've got to do
the Obama approach and just not address
it or you got to do the Trump approach
and address it jovially and make light
of it jovially I love that yeah I got
the best words I've got the best words
I'm the best no one's ever had words
this good I cannot do an impression to
save my life but uh yeah the way he
talks is hilarious yeah yeah uh okay
what do you think of vivec ramaswami I
wanted to like vivec a lot but you don't
I wanted to like him a lot I still think
that he's got he's he's made so many
positive Impressions on me but at the
same time he just he's not been
consistent in terms of the positive
Impressions right picking fights with
Nikki Haley over silly things like Tik
Tok and personal attacks on her family
come on man you've got to act
presidential I love when he came out of
the gates he's prepared he's a minority
he's young so many things there that
that you could that anybody could rally
behind in love but then there's these
behavioral challenges where you're like
dude the last thing I want to do is have
you be negotiating with the prince of
Saudi Arabia and you're gonna jab him on
one of his wives like no that's not a
good idea for us no thank you right
again neoy beginner kind of error that
he's going to try to fix up but that's
just that's where we are right now and
again going back to the original
question there's a there is a very solid
chance that a trump or a Biden
presidency is going to change its course
even 15 or 30° change its course focus
on American needs focus on American
economy maybe even apologize for bad
calls in the past who knows good luck
with that one but they can they can
change the course and make significant
benefits but if they stay their
course then it's just more pain for all
of us and we can't we we can't stand by
idly and let that happen this this the
pyramid the civilization pyramid is not
worth
just sitting by and being silent we have
a chance to impact our state we should
yeah no doubt I think a lot of people
are going to try to have impact during
this election cycle I want to know we
talked about this a little bit earlier
but how much do you think manipulative
tactics will be used on social media to
sway I'm not even worried about
necessarily foreign influence just like
the Twitter files in fact I have a a
quote that I want to read um about the
time we're living in now this from Eric
Weinstein um shout out to Eric who I
love dearly I think he's an incredible
human uh his quote is we now know post
Elon musk's $44 billion Adventure at
Twitter that there are these
coordinating groups coordinating social
media with the intelligence Community or
with the Department of Homeland Security
or the state department we now know that
we're living in an orchestrated curated
choreographed World we've always known
that we just haven't admitted it
and let's keep this in mind too as much
as people want to say that that's a bad
thing that social media and which again
social media is not media social media
what I mean by that is social media is
not journalism social media is
entertainment that's socially generated
it's essentially just like a jukebox
right it's it's a
business we of course want the
intelligence Community the National
Security infrastructure structure of the
United States hip and hip with American
businesses because that's how we will
most like that's our vulnerable our most
vulnerable place to foreign threats is
through our economics so when you take
away the fact that Facebook and Twitter
are massive social voices because
everybody uses them and you just
consider the fact that they're a
business it makes perfect sense that you
would want a business hip and hip with
the National Security sector so that
they can counter any foreign efforts to
impact American economics we don't think
of it that way we think of it like no
free speech and and freedom of choice
and they shouldn't have a say in what
gets published and what doesn't get
published at the same time when Russia
uses Facebook to create influence
campaigns who do we blame we blame
Facebook and we blame the intelligence
infrastructure for not protecting us
again we we want to Americans are a
Waring culture and we want to believe
that we are entitled to everyone else's
[ __ ] secrets but nobody's entitled to
our secrets and it's a it's a dichotomy
that we can't seem to fuse together
right either there are no secrets or
there are secrets you don't get you
don't get to choose which secrets you
get and which secrets you don't uh
that's if anybody gets to make that
choice it really should be a
organization of
institutionalized legislative judicial
and executive powers because we voted
those powers to be in control of our
secrets if you don't like that change
your vote right so uh for sure we will
be influenced by these these sectors
into our social life absolutely we
already are we will continue to be and
it will continue forever we it's not
different from what we've seen in the
past what were hate ads on TV what are
Flyers that come in the mail what is
people knocking on your door and getting
you to sign petitions all those are all
forms of influence and an effort to sway
public opinion and an effort to get top
of mind for some politician it's always
been there it just changed media format
it just makes us pissy that it happens
by Foreign actors and domestic actors on
social media because we forget the fact
that social media is not [ __ ] news
it's not journalism it's not vetted it's
not reviewed there's no professional
criteria it is entertainment that's what
it was always meant to be it was always
meant to be dancing babies and kitten
videos and stunts on motorcycles that's
what it was meant to be it's just turned
into the fact that people don't do
enough interesting [ __ ] that now what
they do instead is they forward articles
that they only read the headline and it
makes them emotional so they forward
more and more of them and people like it
and thumbs up it and comment on it
without actually reading the article
they just read the headline you took
time out of this interview to speak to
the people before they made comments
because you care about making sure that
people understand what we're talking
about not just read a headline knee-jerk
reaction create
virality that's not what we're going for
but that is what ends up happening on
social media that going back to our
conversation about cover influence
that's exactly what covert influence
wants it wants to find two existing
causes that all they need is a little
bit of extra gasoline and they light up
social media is the perfect place light
up the left light up the right light up
the left light up the right and all of a
sudden people don't know what's true and
what's false and they're fighting
against each other I don't believe that
we'll turn into Civil War fighting I
think it takes a lot more before we
start pulling guns on each other but it
does cause enough chaos and delay and it
hampers our progress enough that we will
lose influence on the global
stage not ideal uh what do you think is
going to happen with AI because all of
that feels like uh it it gets
supercharged to a level that that is
unimaginable when you have ai you talk
about volume you can now put out you
could put out 150,000 Trump Clips a day
that aren't him but look and sound like
him and even if they're meant as parody
people will start believing them I can't
tell you the number of times I made the
mistake of Actually I don't even think I
follow it but um I probably liked
something at one point the Elon Musk
parody account and I will routinely
forget to check whether it's him or the
parody account and even though it's
right there I'm just like oh [ __ ] like I
can't believe he just said that oh wait
it's the parody account yeah and so I
think how often did I not notice that
that was the parody account and so when
you've got you know take someone like my
mom God bless her cotton socks she won't
notice that something because I can tell
when something is AI generated it's off
just enough my mom want I'm optimistic
about AI I'll be one of the few people
that say it because I think that our
greatest breakthroughs are still ahead
of us because of AI I think that all of
the fatalistic thinking all the
catastrophizing about AI is from our
analytical overlay and what we've been
conditioned to believe from videos and
books and sci-fi right sentient AI that
determines that that human beings are
the worst thing for human beings so they
eradicate us do I believe that AI will
be used for influence for politics for
local government do I think it'll be
abused absolutely it'll be abused just
like TV was abused just like radio was
abused just like newspaper articles were
abused I mean just like the internet's
abused for sure it'll go in that way and
then it'll be regulated back or the
market will prove that it's not
profitable to create that much junk that
among amidst all the junk that you're
creating your real value can't shine
through so people will stop creating
junk and they'll start creating more
meaningful stuff so if AI just imagine
if AI could be used to expand the reach
of nonprofits trying to solve cancer so
that instead of their minimal media team
creating five posts a week they could
create 150 posts a week and that 150
posts turn into a 200% increase in
funding for cancer research yeah I'm
super pro AI like I am U stamped on on
the accelerator I love it the most yep
uh but I am also aware of just based on
the things we've been able to create in
house not not in the vein that I'm
talking about but you see how real it is
and how quickly you can confuse people
um that it's just going back to the
volume velocity problem it will be used
to have a clip of Biden falling down
stumbling and sounding ridiculous it
will be used to have Trump spout crazy
lies and outrageous [ __ ] and then what I
think will happen is people are going to
have to end up using the blockchain as a
way to Watermark these so that you can
prove which ones are legit not legit and
so the old thing um you know I'm Tom
Bilu and I approve this message kind of
thing at the end will be replaced with
that's really just their um mark on the
um on the blockchain and so people in
embedded in Twitter now X whatever it
will just automatically say yes this is
an official message no it's not whatever
um I think it will end up having to be
something like that but I think this is
the year where it becomes a big enough
problem that then those Solutions have
to be put in place bad timing for that
to happen because now you can really
sway public perception and so this gets
one of the reasons I want to have you
back on not only do I just absolutely I
haven't even looked at the clock and I
know we're [ __ ] deep in uh just
beyond fun um but when I think about
having a perspective on some of these
just like grueling difficult things
you've got such a an interesting take on
the different ways that these could go
and probabilities and all that um but
yeah I think 2024 has a probability of
um being squirly and that people need to
um not allow themselves this this is me
talking to my past self for anybody
wondering why I changed the show I
started changing my show about four
years ago now uh and it was because
realized I had been so heads down on an
entrepreneurial Journey that I didn't
even understand the World At Large I
only UND understood it in as much as I
needed to to build a business and then
when covid hit just like whoa this is
not the world I thought I was living in
and so all of a sudden I was like okay
my prediction engine is completely
broken and that means I've connected
dots in an erroneous way I now need to
completely remap the territory um and
that sent me down a journey of like oh I
need to understand how the world Works
what is the essence of the game who are
the players what are the pieces that are
on the chessboard so that I can really
understand this and so as I look at 2024
make predictions they will mostly be
wrong but they'll be directionally
useful at a minimum and so this is one
of those things that I really think
people need to um load up into their
working memory about what do they need
to be aware of how can AI be used as a
tool in your business as a tool in your
life how can it be used to manipulate
you um how do you encounter a problem
you've never seen before and think well
through it so that you're not just
primed by the person you're sitting
across and now they've trapped you in an
answer and you're stuck like wait how
did I end I don't even believe that what
what just happened right but you've said
this a lot and I really agree with this
that um if you understand the tools and
tactics you're way less likely to be
used by them yep and so you can begin to
escape that stuff so speaking of there's
one thing that um by way of stories I
think has really captured people's
imagination and becomes a bit of a
litmus test of what the hell is going on
and that's Epstein so this is somebody
I'm very curious to get your take as a a
former
spy Eric Weinstein he never comes out
and says the exact words but he's
basically saying that the the literal
words he uses are this guy is a
construct of someone else someone else
created this guy that we call Jeffrey
Epstein and so my question becomes then
the internet runs with that I don't know
what Eric thinks beyond that exact
statement but the internet certainly
runs with all right this guy's a CIA CIA
operative designed to get Intelligence
on people like Bill Clinton which is why
you have a painting of Bill Clinton
wearing a dress in the man's foyer which
is weird and I'll admit I try not to
jump to conclusions but that's a bad
look man uh and so is he a real guy is
he a CIA plant like what what what do
you see what does the data say uh my I
don't have enough data to say what the
data says what I do have is enough
information to pull
on assessments that I think have a
reasonable
probability CIA does not operate the way
most people think that CIA operates and
CIA would never have the legal jur
jurisdiction or the incentive to spy on
an American president but do they have
the legal jurisdiction to sell drugs
which they do we know that you know I
mean do you know who the ultimate power
is over CIA which branch of government
the executive branch so so if he says
it's cool to sell drugs than it's cool
sell drugs yo dude we do things that are
classified for a reason wow and we do it
all in the best interest of protecting
Americans and I mean I am the kind of
person that's practical to a fault right
so if you tell me that I can either sell
cocaine to impoverished Latin American
countries or watch 100 Americans
die I'm a cocaine dealer wow I'm just
just the way I work dude like just like
you you are honest I appreciate that the
the lives here are more valuable to me
than the lives here that's just I know
that makes me sound however that makes
me sound but that's just the way I was
that's that's the way I'm wired that's
my analytical overlay yeah so I have
zero reason to believe and zero evidence
to believe zero experience to believe
that Epstein is not a real person or was
some kind of CIA manufactured plant or
was a CIA asset or a CIA resource zero
reason to believe any of those things
about foreign however we go however I
have lots of reasons and lots of
experience to make me believe that he
was a intelligence resource for someone
else he may have been a resource for FBI
because that's a whole different
Authority that's granted on
investigating criminal activity inside
the United States and they work with
Shady people they work with criminals
they work with sources of all kinds so
he may have had a relationship with FBI
I can't speak to that but definitely not
CIA however if I was an intelligence
officer in any of the leading
intelligence Services the French the
Israelis the Russians the Chinese the uh
Iranians if I was an intelligence Source
in for Germany if I was an intelligence
officer in any country that was
interested in what's happening in the
United States I would 100% have devoted
time and energy into tracking and trying
to recruit Epstein into my asset of
reporting sources because he had
access such privileged access and he was
so malleable in terms of what he needed
and what he wanted so that he could be
controlled those two things are exactly
what you're looking for in the dream
boat asset you want someone who can be
controlled by simple lovers and someone
who has incredible access those two
things together make a dream booat case
and and I mean even for an
unsophisticated service right like your
unsophisticated services being Ecuador
or Panama or you know uh Romania those
are basic Services basic intelligence
Services you're really refined really
talented services like Cuba like uh MSS
and China like like the svr and Russia
those Services could absolutely make
someone like that sing and keep him well
fed and well versed in the things that
they that he needed
and and get incredible access back from
him and then when the natural course of
American judicial process takes place
they can distance themselves from him as
much as they need to right because he's
definitely not going to come out and be
like actually guys don't convict me
because I'm a really I'm reporting to
the Russians no he's never going to say
it so it's it's all the Hallmarks of a
very good intelligence case carried out
by a foreign country doesn't mean it is
it just has all those Hallmarks but a
misinformed American public who is UN un
uh un irrationally focused on CIA
conspiracies they see something that
does look and feel like an intelligence
operation but they attribute it to CIA
because their anal analytical overlay
from movies and TV instead of
attributing it to a truly adversarial
service that could execute an operation
like that what are the Hallmarks that
you see that really make go uh can't
guarantee it but damn the the
access the fact that he was
so close to so many people on both sides
of the political debate right
conservatives and liberals and he
participated in extremely compromising
behaviors with both
sides that doesn't happen unless either
you
are so
uh disconnected from the American
experience that you really do see
everybody as just a tool or you've been
directed to build those relationships
and incentivized to build those
relationships and rewarded for building
those relationships because it takes a
lot of effort it takes effort to find
Common Ground between very far- leaning
people and then it takes effort to build
your life around being available to them
when they're available and then
orchestrating these compromising
activities that that takes so much time
and effort it's just not something that
normal people participate in even the
very wealthy come to a point where
they're like I could spend an hour with
this guy or I could spend an hour doing
this other thing that's even more
productive and they will rationalize
their way away against socializing and
into business or something other more
productive Venture right so the access
is the biggest thing and then the second
biggest thing is the incredible amount
of compromising behavior that he
participated in like even your your
kinkiest
craziest people who who don't follow any
kind of moral or ethical Compass right
even those folks have a hard time
functioning at that level and also
participating in that much compromising
activity that's documented right like
often times to get to a place where
you're that Mor and ethically flexible
you're not functional in other ways he
was somehow both so he could have just
been a very unique human being I'm not
going to say he wasn't but probability
wise he was
probably helped or directed in that way
not necessarily magically gifted but
there's still a chance now it's
interesting that's one of the things
Eric speaks to is that when he so Eric
was heavily involved in finance and
trading and he met him and he was like
there's no way that guy knew the first
thing about trading he was like there's
no way like you talk to him for 30
seconds and you're like what is
happening how this guy doesn't know
anything about what he's talking about
he's like he basically word salads his
way through stuff he uh Likens him to uh
if you've ever seen that Meme with Steve
Bushi who walks in hello fellow kids and
he's you know whatever 46 years old with
a skateboard over his back uh he said it
was like that with um trading which I
found hilarious that's so that what
you're explaining to me now makes a
third Hallmark because a third Hallmark
of an intelligence asset that's that's
aided in their intelligence uh success
is that they don't know what they're
talking about they end up in positions
where they Thrive and survive just off
of their con game their confidence So
eventually people just rationalize that
this person doesn't know what the hell
they're talking about but I don't really
care because they're a good time so
let's have a good time and let's not
have any meing
conversation perfect opportunity because
guess what that intelligence asset has
to do all they have to do is listen to
the intelligent conversations between
two people and provide that intelligence
to someone else or get them to
participate in compromising behavior
that they can use for either blackmail
or some sort of documentation for the
potential future or you know grab a
phone or grab a laptop or you know let
somebody into the party who's a trained
intelligence operative to meet the other
cases like there's so many ways an
intelligence officer can use an access
agent and or a foreign reporting agent
who has the kind of access and control
levers that Epstein had how often is sex
used to get people in compromising
positions in the United States often we
are a sexually repressed culture you you
have to consider that have I mean you've
traveled the world yeah but I mean damn
I don't it's not like I see people dry
humping on the couch in Europe is like
but you do see nude ads in Europe I
guess a little bit yeah I mean bro I got
some sites if you want to see porn in
the US like you can find porn everywhere
you you can't find it everywhere that's
what's so interesting you can find it
but you can't find it everywhere right
just think about social media you can't
post Nudes on social media at least not
easily and at least not for very long I
don't know if x you can X is a whole
different world right now right but that
just goes to show like we believe in
monogamy We Believe in in traditional
marriage we struggle to accept gay
marriage we struggle to accept
non-traditional relationships like we
have a long fat history of of
conservative sexual values maybe that's
changing but it's still very much
something that we struggle with right
now whereas in Latin America in Europe
in
Asia prostitution is
legal uh sexual escorts is legal
three-way relationships are common like
old and young relationships like sugar
daddies and sugar mamas all very common
if not if not culturally preferable
where here we don't have any of that so
that the end result of that is that we
have such a uh such a confined sexual
culture that when people have strong
Sexual Energy that they can't
exercise when they're given an
opportunity to exercise that Vice
they take it and they jump at it which
is part of the reason that we have the
the issues that we have with porn
addiction here and the issues that we
have with adultery here and the issues
that we have with human trafficking in
the United States right because people
are looking for a way to exercise this
Vice that everywhere else in the world
is
acceptable that's interesting yeah I
have not thought of us as sexually
repressed but I hear what you're saying
compared to the Middle East though oh
yeah but you're talking about Sharia law
in most of the Middle East still that
it's pretty hardcore uh you have said
speaking of sex that spies have the best
sex tell me
more uh a big part of a big part of
being a spy is learning to accept your
vices right and there are predominantly
in our in our lexicon there are really
three vices there's drugs and alcohol
that's Vice number one which is
essentially a dampening of of anxiety
and a dampening of stress and whatever
else that's that's the first vice the
second Vice is greed or fame right
wanting something material to enhance
yourself and then the third vice is sex
and really sex is a vice that's
connected to intimacy and individual
connection right we just we categorize
them as as
sex so these are three human vices that
are international that we all learn
about all people so that when we come to
break down what people how people tick
you also want to break down what their
what Vice they lean towards and
sometimes your viice changes as you as
you age but usually your viice is pretty
consistent for your entire life and
everybody listening right now is
immediately saying that's my viice
that's my vice that's my viice that's my
viice at
CIA Fame and greed can't be one of your
vices so they kind of rule that out
early on in the in the because you'd be
too easy to like flip because you that's
not a job that lends itself to fame or
greed there are people who are flipped
on Greed later on but it's because they
they believe that they're worth more
than what they're making right and
that's your aldri Ames is of the world
and your Richard Hansen's of the world
your you're people who compromise
themselves to a foreign power in
exchange for a paycheck right but in
every case in every case of a converted
American asset there was also an element
of sex because what happens is the
people that are attracted to the kind of
dangerous work that happens at CIA are
people who are attracted to high stress
and they don't have a lot of personal
connections that's why they like
operating solo right if you had to flip
a female asset would you rather have
sex or money in your back pocket money
money yeah money and and you're also
talking about a female asset would only
be a non-american asset because CIA
doesn't recruit Americans right right so
when I think of a foreign asset the vast
majority of what foreigners are looking
for is solutions that can be reached
with money more so than solutions that
can be reached with sex even then let me
just give you a real world example even
when an American intelligence officer is
developing or engaging in an operation
against a foreign Target of the opposite
sex when that Target shows a sexual or
romantic interest in the
officer it is critical that we don't
reciprocate that romance or sexuality
that instead we find a way to confront
them in a caring loving like in a caring
meaningful transactional way and paint
the way for how their their their needs
for connection will be solved with money
with financial stability you can find a
reliable partner with financial
stability you can afford to buy a wife
or buy a husband with financial like
tools you'll be able to gain enough
notoriety or fame that everybody will
want to be with you right rather than
engaging in any kind of of romantic
relationship that compromises the
officer to the
case why does why is it considered that
sex compromises the officer and two
reasons one because American culture is
a culture of sexual repression so when
we engage in sexual desires it is
usually because we feel guilty about
exercising those same Desires in our
normal life so we have to understand and
part of our part of our training helps
us understand our own vices so when you
understand your own vices and you see
your own vices at play you're like oh if
I if I go down this road it's what we
call a slippery slope if I go down this
road I'm just going to slip further down
the slope and slip further towards
compromise and then only bad things
happen so that's one part of the reason
why we do it the second part of the
reason why we don't engage in sex or why
we see sex as something that's
compromising is because it doesn't allow
us to institutionalize the case itself
it makes the case dependent on the
person because it's a romantic
transaction rather than creating a
Reliance between the Target and the
institution that is Cia or that is
American uh National Security as long as
you can institutionalize the case it
means that case has longevity because
one day I will leave this country and
you will come into this country and I
need to make it so that the loyalty is
to the institution so that when you take
my place the asset keeps working with
you that's really interesting
um if somebody were trying to an
external agent were trying to flip an
American
woman money sex or love that's that's
connection we replace love with
connection the reason that's the to go
back to your original question the
reason that spies have the best sex is
because spies actually understand the
value of connection true connection
connecting sexually is just the most
basic physical represent a of
connection transparent conversation
being able to demonstrate vulnerability
true vulnerability being able to invest
fully in the hopes and dreams of each
other right these are all ways that
we're taught to understand human beings
and then we just bring that into sexual
relationships um one of the things
that's the saddest thing to see is when
CIA officers have a hard time ending up
in a loving and meaningful relationship
because the partners that they pick
become intimidated or scared Away by the
level to which that CIA officer is able
to engage in a
relationship because they're able to get
so deep so quickly if they choose to or
they're able to to make it feel like
they're so approachable and so
accessible and so whatever else that the
other person becomes inherently
distrustful so it's very very difficult
and it's very sad to see you know some
of my closest friends have have
been just so talented in everything
about their career and they've struggled
in love and it just creates a very
lonely existence for them um but yeah so
when it comes to a foreign asset
converting an American female I don't
know that it's fair to create a a swath
a generalization of American females um
but what I would say is that American
females are far less susceptible to
sexual um honey traps or what we call
sexpionage than American Target American
male targets
American male targets are far more
susceptible than American female targets
there's always going to be exceptions
but probability wise if you're going to
use a Honeypot it's very easy to test a
Honeypot against an American Target
that's a male versus test it against an
American female
Target uh have you heard of the book um
rise and kill first no but I will write
that down brother like I'm shocked that
you weren't consulted on it or so it's
the mad and um it comes from a proverb
in the Bible that if a man is coming to
kill you you should rise early and kill
him
first and uh it it just tracks her whole
thing and anyway in the book they talk
about the three p's which I'm now
forgetting but one of the P's in terms
of how you get an agent to flip and give
you information uh one of the peas is
another name for a cat or how you call a
cat a kitten uh which I think everybody
will immediately understand what I'm
talking about uh so yeah I was not
surprised by that like mad are one of
the best in the world at honey traps
really against American targets
specifically interesting why would they
be working against American targets so
we go after allies yeah and and allies
all go after the United States that's
the problem with being the biggest right
we had a major we had major Flaps in
France and Germany I mean just in our in
our adult lives right remember when
angilla Merkel discovered that Obama's
uh NSA was spying on Germany and it
caused a huge riff yeah right like it it
happens all one of the biggest most
public cases of of American Espionage
was a naval officer that was recruited
by Israel and giving away nuclear
secrets about submarines it was it sex
bage nope that in that case really in
that case it was he was Jewish and they
targeted him because he was Jewish ah
interesting so that's not to say again
it's not to say anybody's wrong it's
just to say that there is a leverage
there that can be exploited in some
cases it's ideology about your faith or
about your community or about your uh
your value system in other cases it's
ideology about who what you believe is
right or wrong or who you believe is
more powerful or less powerful right we
have a saying at CIA that you are either
in
control or under control there's no
third option so you are either in
control of a situation in control of
your behavior in control of your
thoughts in control of your outcomes or
you are under control of someone else's
thoughts someone else's Behavior someone
else's plans someone else's
outcomes it's up to you to ask yourself
the question which am I at any given
time and what steps am I taking to test
that I am accurate in my assessment of
my current status I like that a lot are
there people that are
unflippable
uh yes I'm going to say yes and when I
say yes what I mean is that Pro the
probability of them being converted is
so small that it's not worth the
investment of time and energy to try to
convert them but the truth is that we
all go through points of Our Lives where
we are more susceptible to being flipped
than we would care to realize and that's
often times what we're trained to do is
Target those individuals who are going
through that phase of life where they
have the right access and the right life
conditions where compromising behavior
is something that you can rapidly
develop in them what are the right
conditions
for that switch to be rapid
so there's um there's major points in
the typical life where you can
anticipate financial needs relationship
needs and uh uh Health
needs those are the major points that
you want to look at so think about your
senior Diplomat your senior executive
your senior military officer who's a few
years away from retirement a few years
away from no longer being relevant and
no longer being paid by the state even
better if they are working for like a
third country or a a competitor First
Nation country where they aren't going
to be taken care of financially very
well in their retirement Sunset years
right but they're still two or three
years out it's a fantastic Target
because they have tons of monetary need
same thing is true at the opposite end
of the spectrum where people are just
starting out but they don't have any
Financial but they they want to rush to
their financial success but they're not
there yet so they'll engage in
compromising Behavior trading their
information to their access in exchange
for extra money right so there's you've
got to always be looking for that those
points in a life where Financial need
becomes relevant sick children uh aging
parents changes in career
uh hitting ceilings of careers like
these are all points that exist
worldwide for all people right then you
have relationship issues people who are
uh old enough that they should be
married but they're not married or they
believe that they should be married but
they're not married or they've been
divorced or they've been Outcast or
they've been whatever else they picked
their career over their relationship
right these are all people who are very
suceptible to approaches that solve the
relationship problem similarly you've
got the same thing that exists in the
business world people who are struggling
in business people who are trying to
make a business people who are trying to
make a business that's super lucrative
they're missing certain elements in
relationships they don't know the right
people they're not connected to the
right buyers whatever else it might be
so it's a perfect place to step in and
connect two points and this person
becomes wealthy because of an official
business deal but their loyalty is to
you because you become their lead Source
essentially right and then you've got
health issues and health issues are they
apply to the individual but they also
apply to the individual's family and
friends and everything else so if you
are an Iranian you have no access to
Western medicine so if you're an Iranian
nuclear scientist and there's a rare eye
condition in your mother it's the
perfect time for a western power to come
in and say you know we have a hospital
that can take care of your mother if you
have a nuclear secret that you're
willing to trade and that's really how
it all works that same nuclear scientist
10 years earlier would have never talked
to you but today right now they will
there's so much marketing
parallel between Espionage recruitment
operations and just standard business
marketing you've just got to give them
the right message at the right time to
get them to take the right action and
then deliver the
outcome no doubt no doubt Andrew Buon
where where can people follow you uh you
can find me on my homepage everydays
spy.com you can find me on social media
at everyday spy and then if you want to
find my podcast I'm on all the major
platforms and on YouTube thanks to Mr
Tom Bilu for recommending that last time
I was here and that's the everyday spy
podcast love it thank you for coming on
everybody remember if you're not in
control you're under control and
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friends be legendary take care peace
check out my conversation with
Constantin kissen he is one of my
favorite people to talk to and you guys
will really enjoy this episode if you
want to be successful in life it really
will come down to the rules that you
play by for most people Society hands us
a set of rules and we just accept them
that works fine in periods of stability
and prosperity but it becomes disastrous
and moments