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Language: en
you're living through an inflection
point in human evolution between Tech
like AI Quantum Computing and biotech
the next decade will bring about more
dramatic change than the last 100 or
even 200 years combined virtually every
aspect of Our Lives is about to be
disrupted for the unprepared this will
be devastating but for those that take
the time to understand the most likely
path forward there will be huge
opportunities to help you better
navigate what's coming I bring you
futurists Peter
diamandis given the state of AI and
Quantum Computing do you think that
we're on the brink of human immortality
I think we're on the brink of a health
span Revolution I think immortality
comes when we can scan the brain and
upload you into the cloud you think
that's the only way we have to transcend
biology people have to realize we're
constantly replenishing all of the cells
of our body anyway right like the oldest
cells in your body are your fat cells
that are an average of 8 years old given
AI given Quantum technology we're going
to start to uh understand why we age how
to slow it stop it maybe reverse it and
I think those things will get us uh
north of 100 years the boohead whale the
largest mammal can live 200 years uh
Greenland shark can live 500 years and
have pups at 200 years old and the
question is if they can live that long
why can't we and for me it's either a
hardware problem or a software problem
and we're getting the tools to be able
to deal with and edit our software edit
our hardware and for people who are
saying well am I going to be part of
that am I going to live for hundreds of
years am I going to have the chance to
be immortal I'm going to put aside The
Immortal part again I think your mission
should be how do I live long enough
healthfully enough to intercept the
breakthroughs that are
coming right so it's interesting someone
asked me a question question like how
long do you want to live right I
remember when I was in medical school I
I set a like a 700-year lifespan which
is a ridiculous number it's ridiculous
because if I can
live I think another 30 years from now
the breakthroughs we're going to see are
going to buy you the next 30 or 100
years so your goal is to live long
enough to intercept what's called
Longevity escape
velocity yeah that to me is feels very
plausible when I think about
the magic trick that is AI yeah um walk
me through what you think is the rough
timeline and and I fully acknowledge
that looking into the future when you're
talking about something as revolutionary
as AI becomes a little bit comical but I
think that it helps uh to map how you
think about how this is going to work
like what the problems are that we're
going to solve where's the intersection
of AI and Quantum Computing you're the
only one I really hear talking about
that and it's importance in this
revolution what is it about Quantum
Computing you think is going to help
yeah uh are there qualities of AI that
are only going to be possible with
Quantum Computing what what are the next
steps let me Define first of all
lifespan and healthspan so lifespan is
how long you live how long your heart is
beating how long your brain is
processing uh Health span is how long
you've got the vital energy to enjoy
life you know get up in the morning play
with your kids to your grandkids go for
a hike enjoy yourself have the mental
physical uh Vitality right that's Health
span and that's really what we want you
know if someone says I don't want to
live to 120 years old it's because they
have a mental image of being in a
wheelchair
drooling right that's not we're speaking
about here um if I said to you at
120 your mind was as sharp as that ever
was you could you know hit the ground
and and do 40 push-ups and you know
would you want to live to 20 and I think
anybody who is who is loving life would
say yes so that's our goal it's it's
that level of
Vitality um so ai ai is going to play in
this by helping us uh understand such a
complicated situation so why do some
people live to 100 or 115 or
120 and smoke you know and still get
that far out right why some people L
people die at 50 or 60 um and I think
aging is and in human biology is so
complicated that we're still deciphering
it we're still untangling this this
process and there's so much data we can
now get and we've talked about you know
one of my companies uh Fountain life is
sort of like the most advanced
Diagnostics you can do so when I go to
Fountain life and we've got centers
around the US um I will be digitally
uploaded so in the course of a day I
will have a full body MRI uh an MRI of
My Brain Brain vasculature Brain blood
flow coronary CT looking for soft plaque
dexas scan 120 blood biomarkers
metabolome microbiome your
genetics everything all right so it's
150 gigabytes of
data and that data over the course of
thousands of individuals
can only be analyzed by AI but then we
can start to say look the people who um
s were the healthiest and and didn't
have uh disease or we can look at
presymptomatic disease and the people
who developed this over
time had this genetic sequence or had
these blood
biomarkers it's the incorporation of
massive data aggregation ation and AI
that's going to help us
understand uh why some people survive
and thrive and others don't and then
what are the Therapeutics look at
everybody who took rapamycin or metorman
or you know was on you know whatever
drug combinations it's so
complicated but we're running this
massive
experiment um and is going to help us to
untangle that and get some insight and
say yes for your genetics for your age
for your objectives these meds these
supplements are the best for you right
that's one of the things I'm really uh
working to build out for myself and our
members at Fountain life is that kind of
a
correlation like what you want to do in
life your upload your genetics number of
pilles Will intake per day this is the
right combination for you for you yeah I
think n of one is going to be a big part
of this okay I'm going to lay out my
thesis okay tell me where I go wrong
please uh so one I want to say that I
come at this the way that a Sci-Fi
writer would come at it so I understand
enough of it to get the gist and to be
able to prognosticate the specifics will
be filled in by people that really know
the science um but the way I see this
playing out is that okay we need this is
a game of pattern recognition there is
reason there is a reason why we age so
step one is going to be by um I think by
getting into synthetic data very very
quickly so we'll upload whatever the
first 10,000 100,000 people that go
through something like Fountain life and
we begin to um speak the language of DNA
let's say and we probably need to uh
feed into the AI not just human DNA but
across all kinds of species feed it as
much DNA as we can it goes in it learns
the language of DNA it begins to feed
itself data and begin to um try to
predict different outcomes based on okay
uh this environment with this genetic
code this drug interaction whatever
again looking for the massive amount of
data but trying to parse out the
different patterns in it so that it can
isolate what the problem is now with my
very sort of lame and understanding of
all of
this my again just guess at this point
is that what's really going on is the
epigenome is where all this breaks down
you know David Sinclair's study as well
as I do which showed that even if you
breed a mouse to just get massive amount
of breaks in its DNA over time the DNA
still looks the same like we are able to
repair the DNA it isn't what we used to
think it was which is you're getting
these mutations in the DNA over time and
the DNA is effectively getting corrupted
but something is happening and so if
that something is the epigenome where
we're just we're Mist tagging it again
this is my Layman's explanation of how
this works but they're going in and
putting in the wrong bookmarks um for
people that don't know how this works
your DNA is basically really tightly
wound and a little bit of it gets
exposed to say I'm an eye cell I'm a
skin cell I'm a heart cell whatever and
as you age you're dedifferentiating and
so your eye cell maybe now isn't purely
an eye cell because parts of the DNA are
unraveling so it's a little bit of a
skin cell a little bit of a heart cell
little bit of an eye cell and so now
this is where where the function begins
to degrade over time if the AI can
figure out okay cool that really is the
problem this is exactly what's going on
here are the yamanaka factors or
whatever that you need to um put to work
to rewind the cell so that it resets and
so now we're getting the bookmarks in
all the right
places that part once that's figured out
again I my gut instinct is that's going
to be handled through the the AI using
Quantum Computing to be able to Crunch
just an unbelievable amount of synthetic
data so we don't have because if you
have to feed in millions or billions of
people like I just worry that that's
going to take way too long for somebody
of my age but if we can do this via
synthetic data then the odds that it
goes faster go way up yeah where's
where's the flaw in that thinking so
listen I you know when I was in medical
school I don't know 35 years ago I went
arguably to the best medical you know
University and engineering schools on
the planet and none of this was being
talked about right all of this is really
this entire conversation is the last
five six years um and it's moving very
fast it was heresy before I talk about
longevity or uh age reversal and now
it's when of the hottest subjects on the
planet because it's the biggest
Marketplace I mean what would you not
pay for an extra 20 or 30 Health years
of life so yes we are um to Echo what
you said um if you think about it each
of us get 3.2 billion uh nucleotides or
our genome 3.2 billion letters from our
mom and from our dad and you've got that
same genome when you're born when you're
20 when you're 50 when you're 100 maybe
when you're
150 but why don't you look the same if
you've got the exact same instruction
set why don't you have a you know a a
12pack if that's a thing or a sixpack
whatever when you're 80 like you had
when you were 20 M that one I can answer
but the face I think is because the
six-pack has everything to do with your
lifestyle if you're just put on too much
fat it is I mean my my point simply
being is why don't you have the physique
um or the ability to build muscle or
everything of your youth when you're 100
why is there a difference and it isn't
your gen
it isn't your your 3.2 billion letter
instruction set it is what you just said
a minute ago your epig genome Epi for
the Greek word for above and it's the
control system and and you're right
um when
you're when you're just born or when
you're 10 or when you're 20 when you're
80 different genes are on and different
genes are off and the epig genome is the
control of which genes are on which
genes are off at the highest level it is
the control of the genes for skin are on
in your skin cells and the gene for your
hepatocytes are on in your liver and and
so they're different cells they've
differentiated turning certain silencing
certain genes and saying you're not your
genes aren't needed here in the skin
cell you don't need to be uh you know uh
purifying out urine right um and
so as you age would apparent currently
is going on is that the control of which
genes are on and which genes are off are
beginning to
blur and as you're getting older the
genes that should be off are turned on
or the genes that should be on are
turned
off um I'll give you an example skin um
you know the Supple skin of a child of a
newborn right part of what's going on is
we have something like 23 collagen genes
and we express multiple collagen
molecules that make your skin give it
the the texture and so forth but as you
grow older we begin to silence some of
those genes and so your the collagen
molecules of the 23 maybe only eight or
nine are
expressed and so you start to get you
know wrinkles and uh you know your skin
starts to look that of an old person but
can you turn them back on so one of the
companies my Venture fund bold capital
is an investor in is is marel marble
biome and it's using genetic engineering
uh epigeic reprogramming to turn back on
those genes right to give you know to
take back the the look and feel of your
skin 30 years MH so can we do that
across multiple parts of the body can we
rejuvenate you in that regard and that
is one of the definitely one of the
hottest topics out there right now can
we turn back the clock and and in
December 2020 David Sinclair
uh wrote a very uh famous paper in which
he demonstrated turning back the clock
in the retinal uh visual systems of
mice um basically reprogramming the
epigenome to go back to where it was
earlier and giving mice had had lost
their Vision renewed vision and one of
his companies life biosciences is now
doing that in
primates right and once they already
done it they're already they're doing in
primates right now and have they shown
that it has the same retinal impact or I
believe they have um uh and you know
we're then a a fraction of a step away
from
humans right so uh this is the hot
conversation of uh epigenic
reprogramming on one element AI on the
other and I and I really fundamentally
believe that we're within Striking
Distance to making a dent in human aging
um and I mean you know that's why you
and I are here in this moment we just
announced our $101 million Health span X
prise um challenging teams around the
world it's the largest prize ever in
human
history uh challenging teams to restore
function in muscle immune and
cognition um hopefully this is a age
reversal uh therapeutic that teams will
deliver we're we're just looking at
three systems the you know if if the
teams going after this health span
exerprise are doing something that at
the root cause is hitting aging then
they're likely to hit aging throughout
the body we're only going to measure
immune muscle and cognition because
those are easy to measure and for me as
I get older I want to have the immunity
to fight infectious disease and cancer I
want to have you know the muscular
Vitality to you know hike and play with
my great-grandchildren
right and the cognition to be sharp for
decades to
come okay so one of the things that I
care deeply about is the timing of all
of this yeah me too bu so with with the
prize uh they have seven years right
they have we announc this now in uh uh
what month that we in November December
of 201 3 and it's a seven-year time
frame um why seven years do you think
that's I think I I set seven years uh
originally because if an xprize you know
the original X prize uh the first one I
launched back in
1996 was a $10 million prize for space
flight and again these X prizes are not
for a paper study they're not for an
idea a team has to actually demonstrate
the thing and then they get the money
and they keep their IP the world gets
the benefit and the first X prize took
eight years uh it was launched in 1996
it was one in 2004 when Bert retan
backed by Paul Allen built spaceship one
that Richard Branson then bought the
rights to and create Virgin
Galactic and since then our prizes have
typically taken anywhere from you know 2
to 8 years we had one prize uh a $30
million Race to the Moon that Google
funded uh it was at a 10 year Horizon it
did not get one it got shut down uh
though two of the teams actually made it
to the moon shortly thereafter but
crashed on Landing interesting but they
still you know got to lunar orbit and
still made there which is a big big deal
a Japanese team and an Israeli
team um so by setting a deadline on a
prize you force teams to actually do
something versus sit back if it's there
forever take you know the race element
does help them accelerate but a deadline
when you're facing a deadline you're
going to you're going to take even more
aggressive action uh so seven years for
me felt the right length the second
thing is one of you know our our largest
donor in this prize is a group called
Evolution which is based it's a global
nonprofit based out of Riad and out of
the
US and um Saudi Arabia had has a a 2030
vision of uh really they have a lot of
projects culminating in the year 2030 um
and it just so happened that that is the
culmination of this prize as well so
2030 works from that perspective as well
when I think about Ai and the rate of
advancement so I come at things from a
entertainment perspective and when I
look at what's happened in the last 11
months quite frankly hasn't been a full
year that I've been paying attention to
um textt to video the the leaps are pure
Insanity it it is it's insane I was just
looking at emad's uh latest uh stability
AI which is fast as you're typing yeah
you know there's a ape with an orange on
its head hanging from a you know
bouncing on a trampoline and as soon as
you add words the images are changing
it's insane it's crazy it's where
where're a micro step away from uh from
Hollywood vid you know movies being
produced by describing them in in words
yeah given the rate of change on in the
last 11 months I'm going to guess in the
next five years you will
see uh commercials and things done
entirely just text video like it I think
it's next two years five years I mean it
certainly could be in the next three
just given the amount of UI changes
they'll have to do my gut instinct is
that you're you're looking at at least
three years but yeah um so when I think
about the advanc in longevity when I
look at what humans have been able to do
just in the last 10 years it's already
incredible when you slap AI onto that
then it gets nuts what do you think is
going to be the contribution of quantum
computers how real is that right now
yeah so it's we're in the early days of
quantum Computing to be clear right um
uh Quantum
Computing uh is a complicated subject
which I'm not going to do service to to
be very clear right so classical
computing
is uh basically Computing that uses ones
and zeros on integrated circuit and a
typical um uh you know typical binary
language Quantum Computing uh uses
cubits that are basically can be
anything a zero or one or anything
between a zero and a one and what we
find is it it really um represents the
real world we're living in a Quantum
World we're not living in a binary
digital world we we
model the world uh using uh very
Advanced binary systems we model um on a
molecular level so for example uh uh
Deep Mind which is part of alphabet now
right um which created a program called
Alpha fold and Alpha fold I remember
when I was in Medical School uh or when
I was maybe was was undergraduate MIT at
the time the big Grand Challenge of the
time is could you predict how a protein
would fold so a protein is the basic
building structure of the body it's a
structural material it's an enzyme it's
muscle tissue it's it is a sequence of
amino acids there are 23 essential amino
acids here these amino acids when
they're um assembled in a ribosome read
from DNA to RNA to uh to a protein the
sequence of amino acids that're like
Lego blocks strung together um begin to
fold into a very
predictable 3D structure and that 3D
structure is everything that 3D
structure determines what that protein
does how it functions how it interacts
uh in a you know uh uh in a antibody
um and it was always considered if you
could go from an amino acid sequence
like I can tell you the sequence of the
amino acids in this in this uh thousand
amino acid sequence and if you could
tell me how it would fold that would be
the most incredibly powerful predictive
engine on the planet and it was a super
Computing problem and it was a couple
years ago now that Alpha fold uh an
algorithm out of Deep Mind cracked that
problem um and uh it was able to go from
an amino acid sequence to predicting a
protein within a single Atomic diameter
accuracy whoa and then it went on to
predict every protein and how it folds
in the human body and then meta created
their own version of that and was able
to predict every protein in the
biological ecosystem like POS it it's
gone insanely fast right so now we can
start to design
proteins versus just find out what
nature We Want A protein that is a
certain shape that interacts with a
certain like you know Key and Lock uh on
the surface of a
cell but that's all being done in binary
that's all being done with AI algorithms
operating on
gpus at a atomic molecular level we are
quantum
systems and the belief is that quantum
computers will be able to enable us to
model what's going on at a much higher
level of fidelity much faster and so
that we can start to understand the
fundamental elements of how life itself
Works in a much deeper way and start to
model things you know um I don't know
what what factor to use trillions of
times faster than a classical computer
because it takes a lot of energy and a
lot of time to model things
um but Quantum is going to be able to um
model chemistry and model biology uh at
lightning
speeds um so I believe we're going to
see uh you know 2023 2024 we're seeing
the inflection point of
AI um uh we're what does that mean it
mean means we're we're seeing
AI growing at at unbelievable speeds
what you said ear a few minutes ago that
it's like it's it's awesome it's it's
it's unbelievable how fast it's moving
and and typically an inflection point is
like it's a slow slow you know like AI
so AI began the first conversations in
AI were in
1956 at Dartmouth University a group of
a dozen people came together to talk
about this idea of can we model
intelligence in like a summer trying to
do it right they they to try and get the
theories and think through it right and
then neural networks were proposed not
very long after that but we didn't have
the computational power until this past
decade to actually start to put these
algorithms into play and so while AI is
what uh 56 you know 60 70 years old it's
only now that we're seeing this massive
inflection um it's the knee of the curve
it's the point where it's speed is so
fast right and now we're going to start
to see AI programming Ai and it becomes
self-referential and accelerates even
faster so Quantum is still slow it
meaning we're getting systems we're
beginning to learn how to utilize it
we're have there's like two or three
public Quantum compute
companies um uh friend I don't know if
you know Jack hit uh Jack is on my Board
of Trustees at x prise uh he spun out of
Google company called um sandbox AQ yes
right uh Eric Schmidt's the
chairman uh and Jack is the
CEO um and a stands for AI and Q stands
for Quantum and it's a company that's
really bringing together Ai and Quantum
computing and uh his belief is it's
going to be most impactful in a few key
areas and biology and chemistry is one
of those key
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that to me is really fascinating the
fact that we're going to be able to
manipulate the building blocks of
biology is pretty crazy where do you
think that our ability to um predict the
folding of proteins goes how do we use
that what comes of it so now the
question becomes what drug do you
want in order to um uh handle certain
situation so we're going you know drug
Discovery up until now has been you go
in the Amazon forest and you forage for
different leaves and and and stuff and
you take it back to the lab and you see
what you got right like uh rapamycin
which is one of the longevity
medications out there um I'm not going
into detail about it but it was
discovered in a soil sample from Easter
Island uh which is known as rapanui and
that rapy got its name from that so this
random process of like just finding
stuff and and trying to purify and see
if it has an effect on anything uh is
going to go uh we're going to flip the
model to saying okay what exactly do we
want to interact with this receptor on
this cell or block this chemical process
inside of the mitochondria and we're
going to design it and then we'll see
does it interact with anything else
we're going to start to create in silico
models right comput computer models of
cells at in high fidelity
to understand what's going on and how
you want to tweak
it do we already have the ability to
manufacture this stuff or absolutely
100% And it's and and there's a company
called in silico medicine uh Alex zankov
who's the CEO there is a friend um uh my
Venture fund is an investor full
disclosure um and uh they have in silico
medicine is as the name says we're going
to create medicines in
simulation on computers and then
manufacture it and then show that it
works and they have drugs in Phase 2 or
phase three right now that we're
designing a computer for a particular
medical condition and it's working
out how does drug Discovery work exactly
using
AI um you're going
to understand uh a molecular
process uh inside a cell that is causing
a
disease um and you're going to say this
particular molecule is is a waste
product that's
accumulating that is causing this
disease and can we create a uh A protein
that might go bind that
molecule in a highly uh accurate fashion
that when it's bound uh blocks the
disease from occurring and allows your
immune system to clear it right so we're
going to start to um to Tinker with uh
and the question then becomes is does
that molecule you've designed to block a
particular reaction or um or waste
product does it have a secondary
negative effect that you don't want
right so you're still going to go
through clinical trials
um to determine that there's no downside
of that will that be more of a um we
have to do it but in reality we've
already run the simulation six ways a
Sunday inside there will be a point in
the future so for example when SpaceX
launched the Dragon capsule to the space
station for the first
time it worked it worked
perfectly they're great Engineers but
the reason it worked fantastic because
they had a high accurate computer model
of the entire system and so they modeled
it in High Fidelity and it performed
like the model
said and so for example more recently we
see Starship U making
serial uh advances as it's going towards
orbit of course you know the crisis News
Network and all the uh all the media say
oh Starship fails like it was
an amazing incremental success you know
the the first ship got to a certain
point the second ship got further the
third one will probably work perfectly
because those ships are are highly
instrumented and all the data is coming
back and the data is being used to
advance the models and saying aha this
is actually was going on and so let's
change this engine or this structural
enery and we're going to start to do the
same thing in biology which we're going
to start to gather enough data and
instrument and understand what's going
on where we can eventually get to a
point where we have a a highly accurate
model of the human
cell um and not just a cell but maybe
it's an organ maybe it's a thousand
cells or a billion cells and we're going
to know that this particular designed
protein or medicine whatever might be
works
perfectly um and we'll get to a point
where you don't need to uh go through a
massive clinical trial how far is that
away it's probably not the next five or
10 years but it is probably 20 to 30
years out uh but the cost of these right
and then by the way this drug works for
me not for
you by the way do you know I I don't
know the exact number but it's pathetic
um when a drug is approved by the
FDA and you take your you're prescribed
that
drug what percentage of time the drug
actually works for
you I've heard this before it's either
40% of the time it works or 60% of the
time it works it's like it's like under
20% no way yeah it's it's and I I'll I
want to check that number so I have it
but it's um the when a drug goes through
the drug Discovery
process you know
uh the
first goal is Do no harm
yes and by the way uh most of the drug
Discovery process for the last century
has been done in or safety trials have
been done in men only yep there's a good
reason for that though well the reason
was that drug companies didn't want to
deal with menes and menopause and so
forth right it was inconvenient there's
just so much so many more complications
but what happened was when drugs were
taken off the market because they failed
it was because they hadn't tested them
in
women because you I mean why assume that
this drug that we developed for a
particular condition that was safe in
men is also safe in
women anyway so first is Do no harm and
then does it work and when the FDA
approves a drug it worked in enough
people that it was worth approving but
it doesn't work in 100% in the current
circumstances and it's a it's a minor
minity uh number and I'll have to check
on
that that yeah the I'm shocked if the
punchline is the the number is that low
that would certainly speak to the
placebo effect because I've never taken
an over-the-counter drug it's not true
it's not that I've never taken one that
I didn't notice anything but the ones
that I take with frequency I'm like whoa
these really work my allergy tablets my
and by the way it may well be for uh a
narrow course of of drugs but it does
doesn't have to work for everybody
yeah so all right let's um look at all
of this through the lens of where this
goes and why it's going to work so when
I think about the problems that AI has
to solve in terms of understanding human
biology what's happening um that really
becomes the the goal of AI is to
ascertain what are the the set of rules
of physics effectively how do I then map
that on to a cell how do I map that on
to all the cells and make up an organ
how do I map that onto all the cells and
make up a human body so that's that's
eventually right now I mean so for
example when when when you go through
Fountain life and I hope you will I
would love to take you and Lisa through
it um we're opening up in LA in Q3 of
this year super excited about that it's
amazing um uh you know we're going to
we're going to download 150 gigabytes of
data about you and uh we have like when
we do your coronary CCTA for people
listening listen if you've heard about a
calcium
score um it really is kind of irrelevant
people have a heart attack with a zero
calcium score people with a thousand
don't get a heart attack it's unless if
your arter is blocked or you have
blockage in an artery that you see from
calcified plaque that's an issue you
make sure that the your coronary
arteries that feed oxygen and blood to
the heart muscle are patent and open and
and feeding it but if your if the plaque
on the side of your arteries isn't
blocking the artery and it's
calcified meaning it's like you have
cement on the walls but the blood's
getting through that's fine what causes
the heart attack is soft plaque that
isn't
calcified that can in the middle of the
night
break off and evulse and all of a sudden
you got a A Widowmaker right it is it is
blocked your because it goes Downstream
blocks it Blocks Your artery and your
heart muscle doesn't get blood flow and
it dies and then you have enough of a
heart tissue dies you have a heart
attack you die and so it's just now
using AI to go back to this that you can
take a a coronary uh CT of your heart
and put it through a set of AI um
algorithms that can find soft
plaque not the hard not the calcified
plaque and so we do that we have an AI
overlay on that to determine meaning
it's just getting better at reading the
images it's getting it's looking at the
data differently than before before all
we looked at was calcified and we've
discovered that isn't the issue it is
the issue if it's if it's blocking like
a 50% occlusion of your your left uh you
know descending AR
um so we
get data coming in 150 gigabytes of data
about you and this data all needs to be
looked
at by humans but that's so much data
there's no way that uh any human
physician can understand all of that
data it's way too much to to to Gro to
understand and hold in mind but AIS can
so the first use of use of AIS are going
to be to look at the data coming off of
your coronary CT look at the data coming
off of your full body MRI to look at the
data coming out of your 120 uh blood
biomarkers and then looking at those
individually and then aggregating them
all right looking at the population
level that's where we are today with
AI down the line being able to look at
on a physics level subcellular cellular
level all of that stuff sure that's
coming but we don't need that to be make
a huge difference right now it's
interesting okay so uh I'm certainly
compelled by where the science is today
but the thing that I am obsessed with is
it going where where it goes and do you
think we live in a determined
Universe oh I sure hope not that make it
kind of boring though really how do you
doesn't seem avoidable to me it wouldn't
it wouldn't change anything I do if
we're a determined universe so question
becomes um if if we were you know the
question for me is does quantum
mechanics uh make it deterministic or
not because of probability yes okay so
I'll give you my again coming at it like
a Sci-Fi writer and not like a scientist
but the way that I think about Quantum
is okay um even if the universe that we
live in is simply the most probable
universe it is still predictably
probable and this is exactly why we can
um create GPS which is a great example
so with Newtonian physics you can't do
GPS with einsteinian physics you can do
GPS because it takes into account
relativity and it it becomes specific
enough that you can really nail
something down um I'm perfectly willing
to accept that it's possible that all
the dice get rolled it exactly the right
way and I fall through the chair because
just every Gap in the chair lines up you
know exactly so could that happen sure
but that's probably not likely and so
given that we're in the most probable of
all outcomes um this stuff gets
predictable now I don't understand
quantum physics well enough but you know
Bell's theorem I don't know Bell's
theorem least not by that Bell's theorem
is every time a decision is made a or b
the universe splits okay so that I
certainly have heard that and so we're
living in a a branch of the universe
that was determined because I said the
letter b instead the letter a
right yeah what do you take away from
that though well it's
deterministic in an infinite number of
ways yes but that wouldn't change your
experience it wouldn't change my
experience of it no yeah so just without
it sort of devolving into the many
fractal branches which from a the
theoretical standpoint or a
philosophical standpoint it's fun to
think about but from an experiential
standpoint the reason I asked this
question by the way for those listening
I promise you this is going somewhere is
that when I look at Ai and what AI has
to do the reason I think AI becomes the
most transformational thing we will ever
experience is because it will finally be
able to map out a deterministic universe
and once you know the setup then you can
predict the outcome which which is why I
was asking about how um understanding
the folding of a protein like what
powers is that going to give us so as a
game developer one of the things that I
think a lot about is how you can create
a very simple set of rules that has
tremendous complexity yes and so I have
a feeling that Einstein was right that
there ultimately will be a very simple
equation that will be self-evident in
its Elegance that oh this is what the
universe is born out of because ultim
timately it is going to boil down to a
set of rules and it is the set of rules
that give rise to the complexity but
this is why and this is one thing that
always fascinated me that people without
going to space could predict what space
was going to be like and therefore say
you have to build a spaceship this way
you have to account for the way the
gravity is going to change and Einstein
called his his most beautiful thought I
think is how he referred to it that a oh
God I forget how it's actually explained
but what weightlessness is like
fundamentally that some somebody that
was falling but had no reference point
would simply experience it as being
weightless oh that's a horrible
explanation but anyway get you close
enough so the fact that he could just
think about the rules of the universe
and be like this must be true for this
to be true this is is the necessary
consequence and that he struggled with
his own theories and the predictions
that they made in terms of quantum
mechanics so did you see recently uh uh
both Deep Mind and open AI released
weather prediction model
M that were accurate 11 days out whoa so
this is fascinating and I saw this
morning a a prediction model on
bitcoin so tell me more Peter yeah well
it was trending up through the end of
the year not a huge amount but it was
trending up I'm a Bitcoin believer but
anyway um so anyway the point being
interesting right can AI make accurate
predictions in
seemingly uh massively complex
systems uh like weather I mean I can't
think of anything more complex than
weather or um the financial markets I
mean now it becomes fascinating if
you're actually able to predict and then
the question becomes well if you can
predict that and I know is that change
my behavior when that CH in weather no
in financial markets yes yeah um I mean
this goes back to uh you know I I'll ask
you the question uh my thesis is we're
living in a simulation and it's an nth
generation simulation um we're living
within a simulation within a simulation
within a simulation because I think
we're going to have the technology to be
able to do that and we will because we
can um and if that's in fact the case I
would do nothing different than I'm
doing right now um we're in a game how
do you feel about that it's interesting
so the I'm actually wearing the shirt
right now so I'm wearing a shirt for the
video game that I'm building called
project Kaizen which takes that as its
hypothesis which is everything you've
ever known is a simulation you have no
body anywhere there is no biological U
uh this is a simulation and then once
you know it's a simulation then you can
begin to manipulate it effectively and
that is me again as a Sci-Fi writer
trying to explore what it will mean to
understand the Rules by which all of
this apparent complexity is born out of
yeah um so I for a long time and look
honestly it's only been in the last like
month or two that I've started thinking
maybe this really is a simulation uh
just because the more I do thought
exercises probing at the edges of what
would it mean for this to be built on a
set of rules and why would it be built
on a set of rules and what built it on a
set of rules you just start asking
things back recursively and look I I map
to what I understand course and since I
understand simulations and video games I
map it to that and so there could just
be a fundamental flaw in my thinking and
I'm perfectly happy with that but um it
it does get harder and harder for me to
exempt myself from the likelihood that
this actually is a simulation so I
believe it inherently and I can't prove
it and again even though I believe it it
doesn't change anything I remember I had
a I was at years ago uh I was at a
birthday party that Elon had Larry Page
and Sergey Brin and Elon and I are
having a conversation before the falling
out um having a conversation about
whether we're living in a simulation and
I I think I don't know if it was Larry
or Elon said yeah the only way we're
going to find out is if you try and
tamper with it and the system
resets
yeah uh I mean it's fascinating I I
wonder if this has been a a subject
conversation um in ancient philosophical
times as well have you ever seen any
references to that Plato's Cave yeah
yeah very much the same idea again
mapping to what he knew he knew
campfires and shadows two dimensions and
three yes exactly so that becomes the
way that you think about it but I I
think as people really begin to
investigate the human mind it is
inevitable that you start going hold on
a second you're seeing the world
differently than me and so then you go
wait a second are either of us seeing
the world the way that it actually is
and then once you understand that we're
not uh that we necessarily couldn't be
that my umelt is different than a bat's
umelt and therefore we are going to
perceive everything very differently and
then you start going wait a second we're
perceiving the world instead of just
encountering it as it actually is so the
technology that's going to come to make
a dent in that is going to be BCI brain
computer
interface right so if I'm able to
connect my mind to your
mind I think there going to be an
interesting uh set of corrance you know
can I so there are dozens of companies
right now working on so you got 100
billion neurons in your brain 100
trillion synaptic connections and the
neocortex the top layer is your
sensorium and your
uh your homunculus of action and all
your visual cortex auditory cortex and
such and one can connect the digital
signals in your brain or the electral
signals in your brain to electrodes and
connect them to a computer and those
things are happening right now you know
elon's got his neuralink there's a
company actually here called
paradromics um which is doing that as
well um there's a lot of amazing
companies um and so we're going to start
to be able
to understand visually one of my
favorite uh recent
AI blow your mind examples was a group
took subjects and put them inside of a
functional MRI machine which is looking
at blood flow going through different
parts of the tissue in your brain and
the more the blood flow the more the
neurons are active because they're using
more glucose and oxygen and so forth and
they took the out put of the
MRI and they fed it into stable
diffusion and they gave the subjects in
the functional MRI machine an image to
look at look at an image of an airplane
look at it and think about that and then
they took the signals out of the fmri
and were able to see the person was
looking at an airplane that's crazy
right and they did could interpret the
brain signals say this is what you're
looking at yes yo awesome that's mind
reading mind reading yes it is mind
reading and so we're heading in that
direction and so one of the things I
think about is um you and I both are not
a
single living organism all right have to
you have to think about that we're a
collection of 40 trillion human cells 30
trillion if you're smaller 50 trillion
if you're
bigger um and those human cells are each
individual living
organisms working together uh
collaborativ
for competing but the competing or yes
and supporting each other in that in the
you know distribution of resources you
also have more than those 40 trillion uh
life forms in the form of bacteria and
virus and fungi as an ecosystem in your
body but you're not you know we think of
ourselves as Tom or Peter but we're far
more um I think we're towards a point
where if I can connect my brain to the
cloud and you can connect your brain to
the cloud and all of a sudden I've got
Godlike Powers with a small G I'm
omniscient omnipotent I'm not presentes
I can know anything I can think and
Google I can look through your eyes you
know or Through The Eyes of someone
watching a sunrise in
Tokyo um it is we're now a meta
intelligence we're at a new level of of
of empathy and connection between humans
you know I love Star Trek as you as you
all know are you treky or or Star Wars
Star Wars I'm so sorry for that you're
wrong you picked the wrong picked the
wrong part but it's okay um you know the
only thing and I you know the only thing
that roddenbery got wrong was the Borg
um you know the Borg or the you know the
evil um uh uh you
know networked minds but I think I think
we're going to head towards a level of
Consciousness on the planet as we start
to connect Millions tens of millions
hundreds of millions of
individuals um I think we become
conscious at yet another level I call
that a meta intelligence and I think
that's coming as well uh enabled by AI
enabled by this brain computer interface
you can imagine if I gave you the
ability to connect your brain to the
cloud and you plugged in for that moment
and all of a sudden you could understand
what you want you knew anything you
wanted you were connected to this new
envol of you know of infinite knowledge
and then I unplugged you how would you
feel I think you'd feel so lonely and
disconnected so I think once you plug in
you know this is more The Matrix than
than not so we can get to one of your
favorite uh genres but I think I think
that's
coming uh enabled by uh by AI you know
um let me go one other slight subject
and then we can uh you can take it back
where you want uh we just had
visioneering at x prise x prise um we
hold an annual event called visioneering
where we
brainstorm
ideas and um that would become great x
prises uh and this past visioneering we
had a couple of good AI prises one is AI
for
truth um when someone makes a statement
can you have an AI algorithm that's able
very rapidly to say factual truth here's
the roots of that this is opinion or
this is disinformation all right I think
that'd be very useful in our in our
coming world the other one which which
was um AI mediated communication between
any two
species well
right can I talk to Welles or dolphins
in a in a consistent accurate two-way
fashion that would be nuts that would be
amazing yeah I'd love that for my dog
that would be a trip I know be a trip
what it would be take me out food P
me but you know on a consistent basis uh
I mean you can imagine like uh if you
could talk to Welles and dolphins they
would help you explore the oceans or
talk to birds there's a kid that's
missing the the forest here help me find
them dude so that's very interesting and
I know the way your brain works and you
take a very beautiful optimistic look at
that um it would be utterly fascinating
so killer whales are vicious vicious and
they will go eat a great whites liver
just because they can and they will toy
with dolphins there are dolphins that
will kill other dolphins and they'll
mess with them uh dolphins that try to
have sex with humans I mean just and on
it's crazy and I have a feeling that
were we to actually be able to
communicate with animals it may be a
little more distressing than we want to
believe I read a story a long time ago
and I did find this very interesting
this speaks to your interpretation of
the Borg is being a misread and it was
these creatures that had these tails
that had like these almost fiber optic
tendrils and when they would connect
them sounds like Avatar yes I would be
shocked if he hadn't read this story
because it is very similar to that but
this was years ago I read this probably
30 years ago 35 years ago and uh they
would connect their tales and they would
instantly know the entire history
emotional Mila of the person they were
con
amazing and what was interesting was how
once you could no longer lie or hide
anything from anybody there was there
was a relaxed sort of acceptance of
yourself
like it or not this is who I am you got
your own I've got mine I mean
honestly and when I think about it uh on
on a relationship side and this is
something that you know talked to Lisa
more about the ability to
be
absolutely brutally honest about your
feelings about your desires about
everything you've ever done I mean how
many people actually have people in
their lives that know everything about
you where there's zero to hide I mean
it's like like in a relationship and you
look at a woman go wow she's gorgeous
and you're willing to say that and and
or you know something that you were
ashamed of having done but everything is
fully disclosed I think that level of
intimacy would be
amazing amazing it would be you you oh
man the the Symmetry that would have to
be there though because if there's even
slight imbalance of sure and and
therefore a lot of relationships would
not
work but when they do
click um and there's full disclosure and
your deepest likes deepest fears are
fully known to both sides it is a a
level of complete honesty and I mean
someone who knows you as well as you
know yourself I mean that I mean we're
going in a very different conversational
subject but um I I think that is a that
was something I would desperately love
and I have a few friends in my life
where it's like they know almost
everything possible and it's not that I
wouldn't disclose things to them it's
just we've never had those
conversations and those are the people
closest to me right for whatever
dysfunction I have only my wife knows me
like that m i I don't know why I uh I
don't well just share them with share it
with me now right now yeah there you go
live live on camera um and then you have
a billion people know about it the funny
thing is I don't actively hold things
back like I'm a pretty open book but it
is like there's something about sharing
your life with somebody where they see
all the like what do you like when
you're sick what do you like when
something goes really well when
something goes really poorly and there's
there's just too