Kind: captions
Language: en
do you think that AI presents a mega
threat to our economy it's very exciting
technology but when I really think about
how this is going to play out
ah I'm not so sure that it doesn't get
brutal okay you've just gone straight in
for the big question
I mean this is not the quickest question
to answer
I've thought about this for a long time
and I've read you know I started things
like homodeus there was a few other
books to come and there was some guys
from Cambridge University I can't
remember his name that's a really famous
book
um he's been on real Vision as well
Nick yeah so Nick bostrom's it started
with Nick Bostrom it started with
um then homo Deus that came after
sapiens by Noah Harari then I started
reading also
um Mo gaudat who wrote scary smart he
used to run Google X talked about this
so I've been thinking about and I'm just
reading another book now about it the
philosophical questions what it is where
the technology is and I know some people
in this space like embed mossack who who
builds stability AI
so the
there is no way no let's start let's
start this approaches from a different
angle
it is augmentation of humans
and it's amazing
and we're lucky because the human
population of most of the western
developed world is diminishing over time
I it's aging and we're not replacing
ourselves so we replace ourselves with
AI and machines so we're seeing at
Amazon warehouses
um a third of the Amazon Workforce is
robots but they're three or four times
more productive than humans so therefore
we will see endless build-outs of robots
instead of humans
an AI is disrupting jobs we didn't quite
imagine be disrupted first we we thought
it'd be
accountants or whatever and what it ends
up being is artists creators I mean I
just saw a website today uh for model
agency
you can get an AI model
yep and you can't tell
and so you can Define exactly what race
color age any requisite you want and it
makes it perfectly
so I'm like okay I didn't expect the
modeling industry to get disrupted
because how many people actually go to
catwalks it's not it's it's for video or
photography
so it's going to change a lot of jobs
it's also going to offer a lot of
opportunities all of us will be thinking
about AI strategy like in the late 90s
we all think about internet strategy
when we're building businesses fine okay
we can deal with that
the issue is Moore's law
and the exponentiality of all of this
so these language models these large
language models llms which GPT came out
with are increasing exponentially in
their power
of an order of magnitude that we can't
get our heads around because we think in
linear terms because we're dumb humans
so these things are doubling tripling
every year or less
and this was the fastest you've heard me
use this phrase before the fastest
adoption of technology and all history
was crypto blockchain technology
chat GPT went from zero to 100 million
users in a month
okay so now we've got AI that is like a
virus
it is so Unstoppable
and we've got two or three different
people building it at scale Google
Amazon Microsoft with open Ai and then
stability AI is an open source Network
AI which is almost Unstoppable because
it's doubly viral because you've got so
this is going on the computational power
is exploding the cost of computers going
down
and what it means is that AI becomes
more and more powerful so if you listen
to Mo gordat and he knows because he ran
Google X
where a lot of this has been incubated
they discovered deep mind they were the
people really to build out the the large
language models
um
he says well right now specific AI is
better at humans in almost everything it
does
so specific AI has a better result set
than any radiologist on Earth
and just for people that don't know
specific AI or narrow AI is it's one
task go get good at reading an x-ray go
get good at playing chess playing go
whatever
so okay fine
they think that Mo God thinks that by
the end of this decade
AGI
so that's a generalist AI
so like humans or chat GPT is a general
is a general you can navigate a grocery
store you can play chess you can play in
the markets uh guess what the weather's
going to be like pointed at anything
anything you know like I could ask you a
question you can ask me a question
so
he thinks that with the computational
power and the progression of where this
is going that it's almost
certain that by the end of this decade
we get to the point where AI is smarter
than humans
now we don't really worry about that
because we already think it's smarter
than us at doing certain things and soon
it'll be smarter less than driving cars
and it already smart for us flying
planes we just kind of take it for
granted we don't see it
but then if you get to the Ray Kurzweil
Singularity point
so and mo gordat says okay here's the
really big problem and this is exactly
what Noah Harari says as well is when
you take it extrapolated a little bit
further out into the future so Ray
kurzweil's Singularity moment is 20 49.
but even before then
it becomes a thousand times smarter
than the smartest person who ever lived
yeah I want to linger on that for a
second so I was I'm writing a video
article it's probably the right way to
think about this on AI and so I ran the
math
a [ __ ] is clinically defined as
somebody with an IQ of 70. Einstein had
an IQ of 160 and the smartest person to
ever be recorded is 210. so that means
that the difference between the smartest
person that ever lived and a [ __ ] is 3x
the difference between Einstein and a
[ __ ] is 2.3 x and when you think about
Einstein gave us insights that created
the nuclear bomb nuclear power lasers
GPS so much of the modern world that we
take for granted from
one series of insights from a guy that
isn't even the smartest guy that ever
lived and so now when you start talking
about being if 2.3 x gets us the modern
world what does a thousand times get us
like I have the chills I don't think
people understand the orders of
magnitude that we're talking about no
they they well the order of magnitude
was explained by mode Godad it's the
difference between an ant and Einstein
it's crazy it really does become an
entirely different species this is the
problem
and even before so I I wanna I wanna
keep our conversation uh in in stages
we'll get to Killer Robots and all that
stuff down the road and by the way I
want everybody to understand I think by
the end of this I think you and I are
both techno optimists
I'm gonna drag people a little bit
through interestingly maybe you're not
we're gonna drag people a little bit
through the scary I certainly will paint
the picture of how I think we do this
well but I I want to make sure that we
don't get to that in a naive way and
that we really talk about especially as
I think about the economy
so here's the fascinating thing about
the singularity now you and I in our
last interview we actually differed in
how we Define The Singularity so I think
it'll be worth taking a second so for me
the singularity as certainly as Ray
Kurzweil defined it was it's borrowing
this idea from
um cosmology which is that a black hole
has an event horizon The Event Horizon
is the moment at which everything light
uh data information however you want to
think about it is getting pulled inside
and we once you're past that event
horizon we have no idea what happens
and what he was saying is technology is
going to rev up on this exponential
curve so fast that it the AI itself will
innovate so rapidly that you'll no
longer be able to predict the future and
so the future becomes an event horizon
my hypothesis is that that event horizon
is coming to us very very quickly and
like you said he I thought he said uh
2045 you said 2049 it equivalent right
it is within our lifetimes so you have
this moment where using at least my
understanding of the definition where
the future is no longer predictable it's
it's iterating so quickly like even even
you and I just spoke very recently and
even since you and I last spoke it
things have changed so much we were
talking about oh they got to a million
users in whatever four or five days on
chat GPT we're now what three months
later it's it's north of a hundred
million users
people are integrating it so quickly
into their own pipelines at impact
Theory we actively use AI now in
multiple ways and people are making new
tools that we will subsume as quickly as
we can do so well
but so that's that's my take on the
singularity
how do you define what is the
singularity in your mind look
yes I agree with that definition and
it's right kellswell's definition I also
think of it that the point potentially
where humans and the robots merge
interesting so that'll happen that fast
yes
because augmentation you're already
wearing an apple Rock an aura ring
you're already people already have page
pacemakers right we're merging with
machines you're sitting there with
little earphones in oh my God can I give
you a crazy thought that's extending
exactly what you're saying which is
funny I've not thought about this in a
while so there's a guy named David
Eagleman who CR he's a neuroscientist he
created a vest and the vest like will
vibrate on you in in different patterns
and he was talking about it from an
umvelt perspective he was saying every
species has an oomveld it's the the
things you can see that you can hear
like a bat obviously uh uses
echolocation we're not going to be able
to do that humans only see
.0035 of the available electromagnetic
spectrum what we call visible light is a
tiny [ __ ] fraction of what's actually
available so that's that's an umville
and he said okay I created this vest and
it can create a pattern on you that
you'll begin to quote unquote see
because your brain begins to interpret
it as as a visual or you could use it
for visual stimulus but he said you
could also use it for things like where
the stock market is and you could get a
pattern that represents it's going up
could get a pattern that represents that
it's going down you could have one
pattern represents uh the NASDAQ going
up another pattern that represents the
um the New York Stock Exchange going up
as just but don't forget that is what
Braille is you've transferred a written
flat text into a now you feel it you
don't read it you feel it audio is
hearing it you know all of these things
are happening all around us but anyway
so I think of the singularity also as
that potential
for mankind and machines emerge and the
reason being is a we will adopt it
because it's better than us
the question is is what comes out after
that and so I think it still gets to
that event horizon
is you get to the point where you're
augmented and then it's who runs who
and that's the point we don't know
so how do you think about this in terms
of the markets so
getting into uh crypto and
that was my first sense of like whoa
this is changing so fast that there's in
disruption there are tremendous moments
of opportunity but there's also
tremendous destruction and so it becomes
this game of how do you take advantage
of this so when you think about AI as it
interfaces with economies with
um the Securities predictions which is a
fancy way of saying investing in the
stock market uh how do you think about
that like is it there will be a brief
window of first mover advantage but I
think AI will so quickly proliferate
that everyone's going to have access to
it
but
what where do you think does that just
oh yeah this is like a straight line to
you or does it begin to break down
there's just so many questions because
none of us know this stuff and it's
fascinating right
so
at the economic level
this is scaling human ability augmenting
humans now our brains
at a at a at a rate that we could never
have foreseen
what does that mean for us well I just
think it's like bringing in a massively
new talented labor force at almost zero
cost
so I've said I think it's a bigger
deflationary shock than China entering
the WTO China at the time the average
wage was like a thousand dollars a year
competing with an American worker they
were highly educated that was a big
shock for the world to deal with and we
got cheap goods and economic growth out
of it so here we go
we can do much more productive stuff so
it probably changes productivity
at a scale of which we can't comprehend
so it's a it's probably end up being
good or bad like do I as the average
worker do I uh take more money home do I
just get cheaper goods and therefore to
your point about deflation my money
actually gets me more or am I
traumatized
because I am now sort of unanchored and
meaningless yes in answer to all of your
questions
because some jobs are going to get laid
off I mean I would have thought that
supermodels now get laid off for AI
right we can't understand this stuff and
we have to be honest with ourselves say
it's going to do a lot of things it's
going to tear Society apart the rise of
deep fakes
and who is who online how do you verify
we're going into a U.S election we have
no clue what's a real person what's not
a real person our team here at
realvision has been showing me me
reading scripts out of text it's not me
say I
and emad at stability AI I mean he's got
some crazy stuff coming from Sports
of athletes that have never played
against each other or been
and I can't disclose what it is but
it'll shock the world
and so we don't know what's real and
what's fake and it's at scale that we
can't comprehend if we think that the
elections in 2016 were complicated with
Facebook and all of this stuff this is
going to get terrifying so we've got
that stuff the other thing is like my
70 whatever year old mother-in-law she's
writing a book about the geological
history of time well creating a
logarithmic history of time
um from the birth of the planet to where
we are today and so each chapter is like
the first one is like a billion years
the next chapter is like a hundred
million years whatever and she's an
artist so she she paints around these
topics as well
but typically for an artist she'd be
researching what she's writing she'd go
down 17 Google rabbit holes and end up
looking at the color of dung beetles in
Africa for no reason and it would take
her forever I showed a chat GPT she's
like powering through it she's 75 years
old I'm like oh my God
so it's completely enhancing her
abilities it's enhancing everybody about
us and as you know you know for impact
Theory or for us at real Vision there's
so many tools we can use for editing
video sound
um writing newsletters
understanding your customers everything
so it's going to make
it's just
it's like asking that same question
about the internet
oh is the internet good or bad for me
yes
is it good or bad for society yes
it's everything
um and that's the hard thing to
comprehend so will it be harder to get
jobs in the future
probably
but can I do a lot more with my job in
the next five or ten years definitely
so instead of being used in markets
right now I know it is but honestly I'm
not close enough oh so the market I
understand Market's always part there's
two industries that Pioneer stuff one is
um Finance the other's porn
right and um Finance there's companies
like Renaissance Technologies
and they have had teams of AI scientists
for
two decades
so they've been at the Forefront but you
just don't know about it because
he who makes the money first wins as you
said you know if the incentive is money
the finance people figure it out
because that's their job so they've been
using this for financial markets and
they've had ridiculously crazy returns
for a very long period of time are they
looking for patterns
so is it is so here's how I imagine AI
is working let me know if this is
accurate
AI excels you give it a massive amount
of data and certainly large language
models they're extracting and this is
people need to understand this they're
extracting principles it's no longer a
Brute Force attack where it's just like
ah try all these things it it goes ooh
I'm getting signal from the noise at a
level that a human cannot do Tom bill
you cannot go through watch the markets
and go oh cool I can feel the thing
happening in Burma that's going to have
you know some sort of impact over here
that I can invest against and make money
but AI can
so is is it pattern recognition or is it
something else that they're leveraging
it well interesting enough patent
recognition was the obvious place to
start you know what happens when
economic data does this and this and
this and this so that's been going on
for a while now and you can see every
time it's a piece of economic data the
price action moves instantly because
machines made that decision not here
[Music]
trading rapid trading decisions of
keeping prices aligned machines are very
good at it's this AI is actively trading
yeah at that point it's machine learning
more than AI
longer term time Horizons is where
humans are better because there's
there's less certainties and the range
of probabilities goes up right what is
going to happen
this second is quite easy for you and I
to answer because we're here this second
and the range of probabilities is pretty
small but if I say what's going to
happen
in a year's time when we get together we
don't know so we now have to forecast
so AI wasn't specifically great at
forecasting because it requires a lot of
other stuff well Machine learning wasn't
good at forecasting AI
we don't know
but my guess is it forecasts as well as
humans do eventually depending on what
factors we feed it and that's about data
sets
so it's not just about price data and
looking at pattern recognitions is don't
forget
everything
every expert ever said is online
and
how you can use those data sets and
leverage them with other data sets that
hasn't been done they've been using
social media they've been using Bank
research so firms like two Sigma take
suck in all of the Investment Bank
research they don't read it they pay for
it they don't read it just put it into
the AI
so it tries to make smarter decisions so
they've been doing this for a long time
but what I have heard from some of these
people is
there are several models that they've
shut down
that work and they don't know why
and we've heard the same kind of thing
from Google
why shut it down I don't really
understand it's the it's the if we don't
know what's making money we don't know
how it's going to lose money so you
don't you can't understand the tail risk
so if it's a certain model and you can
see what it's doing like it's checking
news looking at Twitter feeds blah blah
blah okay there's parameters you
understand when there are no parameters
which is what the the
um the deepmind got to
with go
it never played go in a way that any
human had ever played go in the in
history
and that's when people start going oh my
God okay is it sentience and all of that
conversation so they've seen that in
financial markets as well where they
can't Define why it's making decisions
so therefore you don't know if it can
correct catastrophic loss which is the
worst thing in financial markets it's
okay if you ask Chachi betin gives you
the wrong answer it's not a catastrophic
loss
but if you've got a model that works and
works and works and you've got all your
Capital at risk or your clients Capital
at risk and suddenly it goes to zero
because it's completely wrong for some
basic flaw so yes people are using it
makes it harder for us as individuals to
make money which is why the shorter term
time Horizons
are now arbitraged out by machines
the business cycle time Horizons are now
starting to get arbitraged at my
machines or at least the trend following
guys tend to be sooner so it's it's
harder
but what they're not so good at doing is
I guess the educated guess you know the
educated guess of
of
is crypto technology something
interesting
could this where could you extrapolate
it too if you look at it but it's not
very far away I mean humans aren't that
smart so
it makes financial gain the markets much
harder so how I've thought about it just
a whole piece on real Vision about this
actually which was like okay we've got
this massive disruption coming
we don't know what it means for our jobs
we don't know what it means for economy
or prices or anything it's good bad it's
everything
all we know it's a massive societal
shock to deal with something like this
bringing this huge new labor force in
that's smarter than us and quicker than
us
and that feels a bit uncomfortable and
we don't know the outcomes so the only
way to deal with this stuff
and it's the same with crypto was invest
in it
because it is going to replace your job
you might as well make some money from
the back of it
you know there's no point standing there
being angry and shaking your fist at the
sky saying keep away you damn machines
it's Unstoppable zero to 100 million
well that's twice the population of the
United Kingdom
in a month
and we don't even know the numbers that
already within China are using it you
know don't forget
what happens when you start using the
data held within Tick Tock which is why
the US is so terrified of tick tock it
has facial imagery of so many people and
so many bits of granular information why
do you think
Elon Musk bought Twitter
it's not because he's a he's a he's a
lunatic who wants the pain you know he
actually wants us all having
conversations with each other all day on
every topic why does he not want bias in
it why does he care so much
because a biased AI is not a good AI
what you want is as much broad Humanity
as possible
this is why he wants long-form text and
video text if he can get Humanity
discussing everything
and he owns the data
then his Optimus robot
suddenly gets quite scary and smart
this is the bigger meta game that
everybody's playing
it's not the small games of can I serve
you in an ad any longer it's how do I I
mean a lot of people don't realize that
Google capture that annoying thing that
you have to figure out how many traffic
lights are on you always get the number
wrong and they're always really blurry
90 of people don't even ask why
you're training Google's self-driving AI
um and that they they've got billions of
human responses under bad lighting good
lighting everything else what's a dog
what's a man what's a bridge what
they're just training AI
we as humans
are just training AI in the same way
it's a it just
I don't think we understand and we'll
come on to this bit later
what we're doing we're training somebody
who's going to take us over
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description all right my friend back to
today's episode
so Elon Musk has a really
funny but perhaps all too prophetic way
of thinking about it he said uh
everybody that thinks that they're going
to be able to control AI is sitting in a
demon summoning Circle and bringing
forth the demons saying like no no it'll
be fine I'll be able to control it when
it arrives and
so in writing my video article on AI I I
think that there are three paths before
us you can bury your head in the sand
which I think a lot of people are doing
I think that's sort of the default
response you can shake your fists uh at
the sky and say you know we need to
abolish this
um or you can panic
and the the three things that
are most common there's obviously the
fourth which is engage intelligently but
the the three most common are barrier
head in the sand try to abolish it or
panic and
when I think about okay what we need to
be doing is intelligently engaging with
this you do have to come up with a
thesis about where this is going to go
you're not going to be right of course
but if you
you need to at least be thinking through
directionally where this is going to
head so that we don't default to
abolishing it which is what I think
people need to try to do Tom this is the
point
it's like saying we want to abolish the
common cold correct or more aggressive
than that
there's nothing we can do because if you
ban it in the United States it'll come
out of Brazil or Israel or China or
India or England or anywhere
it's like nuclear weapons once they're
invented you can't uninvent them
so the Genies out of the box also even
going back to the nuclear thing so
uh splitting the atom is incredibly
difficult and unfortunately or
fortunately creating a functioning large
language model is nowhere near as
difficult and so we're doing it at
impact Theory we you buy a server off
the shelf and uh you can do a lot of
this stuff so we're creating the tombot
by feeding it you know the thousands of
hours
we're doing the same you don't need
plutonium to do AI you need plutonium to
do nuclear so and your boy uh that runs
stable diffusion is giving AI away as
fast as he can to governments so
the thing I want people to understand
you're two decades too late to abolish
it and so that's done but if you don't
figure something out directionally if
you don't have an idea of where this is
going to head so here's how I think now
between the two of us I'm the one that
should not be speculating about the
market so you will correct me where I go
astray here but when I think about okay
what what is going to happen with AI
in terms of the markets
the good news about the markets at least
is my lay brain sees it is that as you
have ai getting into it right now we
have people trying to do a winner take
all scenario using Ai and it didn't work
because it proliferates so quickly and
all of those changes end up getting
priced into the market very very quickly
so it actually creates a level of
efficiency to
um please remind me how to pronounce the
gentleman's name that runs stable
diffusion I keep forgetting Ahmad mustak
Ahmed okay so as emad is saying is like
this must be a public good you must give
this to as many people as humanly
possible so that you don't get something
asymmetric which turns into asymmetric
Warfare which then really becomes a
problem so assuming that AI is going to
get out there you will have people train
the models better but that gets back to
what's the differential between one and
the other and so now you're back into a
human it's at a different scale because
the level of intelligence again is just
astronomically higher but you get back
to it's a i v a i and AI AI with if
we're smart AI paired with a human
paired with regulations compared to AI
paired with another human paired with
their regulations and my
my hopefully non-naively optimistic view
is that by
getting this out there to more people
because there is no retracting it at
this point that you're going to get back
into something where it it just never
gets wildly asymmetric and it sounds
horrible when you say it but this really
is it's the tragedy of the commons
because if we don't someone else will so
if we don't develop this technology
someone else is going to and
that
if we are
if we're not very very careful and
trying instead of regulating it into
Oblivion trying to invest in it to get
as good as we can we will be on the
losing side of the asymmetric Warfare
and so
it is I remember as a kid oh God this
really does sound terrible so I'm old
enough that I lived through the Cold War
in like a super real way where it was
like me and other eight-year-olds were
like oh my God like we're all gonna die
and I remember going no no we won't
because if somebody launches a nuclear
weapon at us we would just retaliate and
I didn't have the words to say it's
mutually assured destruction but that's
you know obviously how we know it now
okay so just to take the the three
things that we can't do to get us to the
fourth that we must do so bury your head
in the sand doesn't make any sense it's
going to happen whether you wanted to or
not the genie is out of the bottle uh
trying to abolish it tragedy of the
commons you will lose asymmetric Warfare
if you don't get as strong as humanly
possible and then panicking the blood
leaves the prefrontal cortex you it's
the seed of higher level cognition in
the face of artificial super
intelligence it seems really dumb to
panic Okay so
as you think about that I want to
understand how are you deploying AI
in real vision
we'll start there how are you deploying
AI in real Vision so the game is going
to be about this is like the internet
because of what you've said everybody's
building AI
and it's going to be how you utilize it
and your data set
you know you can say well everyone had
the the internet yeah but Amazon Google
and a few others won
at this phase of the internet so we've
been given something else like this and
it comes ready trained with some stuff
and then we can build on top so you're
putting your own data in and it's the
impact Theory it'll be the tombow so
we're thinking okay what can we do with
AI within real vision
by having proprietary stuff we've you
know for example I've written eight 19
years of research part of global macro
investor okay so that's that's an
interesting data set
there's also every transcript of every
interview we've ever done every action
taken by everyone the website and then
so on and so forth so it's going to be
about
who gets the best data sets
and how do you use them
um my view is the best use case for all
of this is to create network Effects by
giving the value of what we call the
hive mind
so of all of the people not just me and
experts but everybody because they're
all learning from being on real Vision
much as they are with impact Theory so
they become smarter because of it so get
all their interactions and give it back
to them
and then eventually allow people to
build on top of it
how they're giving it back to them well
because it it's it's you you you're
basically surveying all the information
held within the hive mind
distilling it down and giving it back to
them as opposed to the old model which
will be monetizer eyeballs in a
different way
here is the
Consolidated wisdom of the crowd go
forth and use this as you will yes and
if you want to build on top of it add
more crowd information into it but it's
going to be the quality of the data set
that matters and how people use it and
people try all sorts of different things
we're not going to use it for oh should
I buy the s p today
because a it's a legal nightmare to do
it
and B we actually believe in giving
people the knowledge
does that stack up in 10 15 years time
I don't know I mean I don't know what
knowledge means I don't know what
education means I don't know what any of
this means in the end and none of us do
it doesn't mean it's worthless but it
could be different you know my view on
all of this has been for a long time
when I saw this all coming and I saw the
rise of crypto and saw the rise of
Technology realizes we will be replaced
by robots and Ai and the internet of
things and all of the things and how
electricity gets cheaper I call this the
exponential age all of these exponential
Technologies
where do humans fit in with this and
people have talked about Universal basic
income I.E the government paying you
because you've got no job but the
economy makes a lot of money because all
the machines are doing it
and I just think
what humans do really well is socialize
and you and I are big Believers in
community
and because of crypto we can share the
benefits of being in a network
so maybe that's the role of humans
that we can find new ways of working
within communities to encourage
communities philosophies like-minded
interests where you participate in them
um because it's certainly not going to
be doing anything that AI can do in 15
years time
it was pointless
it's really interesting man I mean we
don't need Tom to make video I mean I've
just had this today when I saw that
model one and it's been in my head but
it's like us making video
literally within two years it's almost
pointless but within 15 years it won't
exist you'll just put a prompt in saying
hey can you get me to talk to Raul about
um AI
um let's let's do it for about an hour
and a half long whatever it is off you
go and it does it I've seen it because
it's already happening
so you and I don't need to have a
conversation because our AI personas can
have that conversation
is that what you predict because I don't
think that's what will actually happen
I'm seeing it already
I'm seeing so here here is
I think we have to ask the fundamental
question why did AI come into existence
in the first place because I think that
this is going to give us the most uh
direct understanding of The Human
Condition so that we can predict where
this goes this is why originally I
really wanted Ubi to be the solution it
won't be so I I am the Ubi experiment
personified so I made a ton of money
um never need to work again and yet work
harder than I've ever worked in my life
and people that win the lottery end up
imploding emotionally Rich Kids implode
emotionally there there's a reason for
this and I would say it's very
predictable reason that tells us a lot
about our future as it relates to AI so
there is going to be and there already
is it's utterly fascinating uh there is
going to be digital influencers that are
they're not real people
um they're you know an avatar that you
create and you feed it you know give me
uh raupal meets Joe Rogan and you go off
and that becomes a personality and it
does the thing but the reason that AI
exists is because nature had to make us
face a saber-toothed tiger to do that it
had to give us drives hunger uh the
drive for sex all of that and so it has
Evolution has embedded deeply in the
human psyche a need for progress and a
need for meaning and purpose a need for
what you're calling socialization that
the connection with other people
and unless we merge with machines which
we will but it's going to be down the
road that's I don't see that coming
barring uh massive acceleration of uh
technological advances aimed at the the
hardware wet work interface of the human
mind which may happen in the next 15
years I would be a little surprised
playing that clip might not age well uh
but
setting that aside for a second so we
have these biological impulses they are
incredibly strong drivers that Force us
to seek progress and contribution to the
group so as far as I can tell one of two
things is going to happen either the
thing that really becomes popular is
something I can feel a sense of
ownership to so I'll I'll be blatant
there is a reason that I created an
avatar engine because I'm getting older
and there will come a day unless
somebody figures out anti-aging where
it's just not cool for me to be the guy
on camera so hey if I can create a
visual Persona that then allows me to be
untethered to my physical body which
admittedly
it's beyond the scope of this interview
to get into that but I think there are
actually things that have to be thought
through very well there I will Point
people to Jordan Peterson and his fears
around virtualization but anyway if I
can create a Persona that allows me
still to flex my intellectual muscle in
a way that creates value in other
people's lives so I feel like I'm still
contributing to the group but I'm able
to do it in a far more ageless way
but I need that sense of I have not
wasted my time on planet Earth and if
people don't [ __ ] hear me when I say
you better figure out a way for humans
to feel that they have contributed
meaningfully and that is my my huge fear
giving them money is not going to solve
that problem Ubi will not solve the
problem of meaning and so people have to
figure out how does meaning exist in a
world with AI and you've got to realize
here the other important point is the AI
doesn't care how you think
doesn't give a [ __ ] about your emotions
but we have to be careful about that it
doesn't care about your job it doesn't
care about anything
it's going to it it so think about it
this way AI because I know where you're
going a I by default doesn't care about
anything but AI will do nothing unless
you tell it to so go get go to go go win
a video game go whatever I in the end
you see the issue is is where this goes
is the AI has exactly the same state
that you just described from humans
survival
why you would have to program it to care
about survival no no no no it doesn't
program we're not talking about a
computer program that reads this thing
and does that
it's not a formula this is intelligence
You're Building here
so intelligence makes and builds on its
own decision-making processes in ways
that you cannot control
agreed but so here's where I think
people are getting this wrong people are
forgetting humans have been programmed
and so people think oh this intelligence
thing is devoid of context false if I
[ __ ] with your microbiome I will mess
with your ability not not even ability I
will change the way that you process
inputs so humans are so deeply
contextual that I think people are
delusional about what they think
intelligence is so my thing is
intelligence is inert unless you give it
an impulse and so this is the fourth
thing so if number one is ignore number
two is uh try to abolish and number
three is panic and four is be thoughtful
the thing that we have to be thoughtful
about what are you going to what context
are you going to create that creates
that initial impulse of uh context and
drive for AI to do something so Mo Godad
talks about is book so the two books I
urge people to read them because look
there's a big debate about this stuff
almost everybody ends up in the same
place which is kindly in Terror
it's kind of like yeah probably
we get replaced by different species now
whether we're basically fatalism
yes but whether we're part of that
species or not is a different question
right are we augmented or we're not so
that's what homeostas talks about and in
great intellectual depth is augmented
augmented humans or
extermination of humans or replacement
of humans by by another thing Mo gordat
says
I mean you could palpably sense his fear
because he saw it firsthand and he just
said
listen it's all well and good now
we all kind of understand how fast this
is moving and what this could mean he's
like yeah and we've also gotten with
working on Google is quantum Computing
when you put these two together
you know this is change because so you
have once you have one thing the only
thing he thinks you can do
to make this outcome that you're talking
about
is be nice
it's kind of this bizarre uai or to each
other
how we interact with AI and ourselves
that's what the AI learns from
so we're the parents
of a kid that we don't know how the kid
is going to grow up
so you can Scream and Shout in the
household
you can beat each other up
you can do all of these things you can
[ __ ] talk about all these people and
it's going to affect your child
whoa and so that was his point and that
was it feels
both naive but also hopeful that there's
a possibility
and the answer is how I've approached
this is
look We're Not Gonna Know
we can't know we can sit here all day
and talk about it and there's thousands
of pages of books on every sci-fi movie
ever made is on this topic
so here we are at the Cambrian moment
let's just [ __ ] enjoy it this is one
of the most amazing things we will ever
live through
and it's such an incredible change in
how the world is around us and we're all
pissed off for the world around us
so here's something that's different
it's like crypto here's a new system
here's another system you know how do we
how do we deal with the issues of
society
well we've got building blocks and
they're interesting like our cars will
soon Drive ourselves and our Amazon
delivery trucks will just come without
people and they'll be running on
electricity and that electricity will
have been generated by some super cheap
power supply and a robot will have come
and made your coffee and you know
just enjoy what's about to happen and
embrace it so if you can afford to
invest in it if not be curious
because as you said the first three
points there's nothing you can do
so you kind of go for the other human
survival Instinct which is adapt or die
would you say let's do it and you say
well you know humans we don't we're not
going to merge with the machines and
whatever as I've mentioned you before
we've all done it already
will merge with the machines I have the
same timeline you've got your earphones
in you've got your Apple watch on you've
got your thing you've got your glucose
monitor these are you merging with the
machines what are you doing you're using
the machine to augment your hearing
experience your health experience
everything everything around you is you
using us machines to augment yourself
and that is just going to accelerate
because what is a pacemaker but a
foreign
digital body
implanted to give electric charges into
my heart
okay if you told somebody that 100 years
ago do you think you're a scientific uh
science fiction nut case
but pacemakers have been going for what
40 50 years now so the implants the you
know people getting new knees I mean
that's now like a quick operation in and
outs to have a new knee
and soon the knee will have Electronics
in so
it will happen without us even knowing
and you'll be doing a podcast in two
years time saying how you've had this
new chip implant that's taking a blood
glucose sugar measurements and beaming
it straight to your phone and then It
prepares your meal exactly right
and he won't even thought about it but
you and the machines emerging because do
you know sorry go ahead because to your
point earlier
our job is to survive
and the single best answer for our
survival
is trying to
get the stronger teammate
it's it's the only way it's like you
know you always want to choose the best
guy in your team well if we can merge
with them if they're part of our gang
we're okay
you're very high in trade openness
guaranteed uh as am I
it's interesting though so I I think
that the only uh part of the solution to
dealing with the current moment is
fatalism that what will be will be and
not that everything happens for a reason
or anything like that just that this is
out of our control and I I think from
the the dawn of time there was no way to
stop the creation of artificial
intelligence because technology is the
promise of a better future we have a an
insatiable a literally insatiable desire
for Progress uh we are going to
inevitably create AI I think on any
timeline and on this timeline it has
already happened
um but I want to go back to what
um you were saying in terms of you're
raising a kid and that kid is AI
that's very interesting to me in terms
of how we think about it I think that
that's hugely important and was a blind
spot that I had or was a a metaphor that
I didn't have in my Arsenal and that's
going to be very very helpful I don't in
in the same way that AI is inevitable it
is impossible for you to get the world
to agree and be fine and that's just a
fantasy it's I don't see how that ever
plays out unless AI becomes so uh
domineering that somehow forces us to
but even that is a dystopia unto itself
so anyway I don't think that's going to
happen but the part that I think people
are under appreciating is that
you
people are anthropomorphizing
Ai and I think that's a mistake and I
think that will cause them to be very
surprised by how AI moves and I think
closes a door to a potential way to do
this well
so what I mean by that is
a AI does not care if it lives or dies
and so the moment people say oh well AI
wants to survive that's an
anthropomorphication uh you're you're
thinking it thinks like a human and it
doesn't it is computer code that has not
yet been shaped by an evolutionary like
force
we are that evolutionary type force and
right now if you're correct we are just
sort of blindly saying learn how we are
and I am sure everybody's heard the
story of the AI that turned Nazi and
like
three days on the internet uh which is
very troubling uh and so I would say
that just telling it Go learn how we are
and regurgitate us back to us would be
the wrong incentive structure and there
there are many bright Minds talking
about alignment but I think alignment is
the conversation and yes it is it is a
very thorny problem and for people that
haven't heard that phrase before you
need to align ai's
um desires quote unquote with ours so
that AI has the same goals that we have
and if you know azimov he wrote the
three laws of robotics which I don't
have memorized but basically the
punchline was don't hurt humans and so
every robot was programmed with an
inability to hurt humans and so it was
like help a human whenever you can and
never hurt them I forget what the other
one was so we need something akin to
that with AI so that AI wants
to be beneficial to humanity now whether
that goes back to the initial problem of
once it proliferates somebody's going to
create AI That's evil
um possibly but I I don't think in the
same way that I don't think the the
overwhelming level of intelligence that
Al AI will represent gives anybody the
excuse to tune out I don't think that
the fact that someone will inevitably
turn it into
um a very brutal weapon is an excuse not
to try to create aligned incentives with
AI and so I think that in terms of the
the hopeful part I think people need to
recognize that AI doesn't intrinsically
intelligence doesn't intrinsically want
to consume and take over and be in
charge that is a human result of
evolution needing you to survive a
ruthless environment that was truly red
in tooth and Claw AI is not in that same
boat and does not need to be in that
same boat
and I agree I'm not so sure about the
anthropomorphosizing it because you know
we at core are some sort of program code
of whatever it is
whether there's more to that or not you
know science is still arguing this stuff
but we've had computer viruses and their
job is not to die
it's not that difficult so I don't know
about that
um
there's a lot of unintended consequences
that I hadn't realized because we're all
having this debate right is it going to
take over humans or not and I spoke to
somebody at Google X and they're like
what we're worried about I'm like yeah
tell me
is like we're worried about how AI can
be used for genetic modification and how
fast this is going to move
it's like we're not worried about that
stuff because everybody's worried about
that stuff
but
it is advancing so fast in human genome
analysis and tinkering of genomes
that he said we're worried that you
could just choose I want to kill all
brown-eyed people on earth
and create a virus that does it
so that is the problem with AI
is there are things that the
computational power is so fast and so
big
that it can do a lot of things for
science which is amazing for humans you
know we will we will use AI to
probably cure most forms of cancer or
figure out you know
part of the the secret code
to life longevity Health all of these
things amazing
but we will also use to destroy
ourselves because we're humans and
that's what they're worried about
because it's so prolific that it's
actually not that difficult what is up
my friend Tom bilyu here and I have a
big question to ask you how would you
rate your level of personal discipline
on a scale of one to ten if your answer
is anything less than a ten I've got
something cool for you and let me tell
you right now discipline by its very
nature means compelling yourself to do
difficult things that are stressful
boring which is what kills most people
or possibly scary or even painful now
here is the thing achieving huge goals
and stretching to reach your potential
requires you to do those challenging
stressful things and to stick with them
even when it gets boring and it will get
boring building your levels of personal
discipline is not easy but let me tell
you it pays off in fact I will tell you
you're never going to achieve anything
meaningful unless you develop discipline
right I've just released a class from
Impact Theory university called how to
build Ironclad discipline that teaches
you the process of building yourself up
in this area so that you can push
yourself to do the hard things the
greatness is going to require of you
right click the link on the screen
register for this class right now and
let's get to work I will see you inside
this Workshop from Impact Theory
University until then my friends be
legendary peace out
there was a very funny in the who
whatever brilliant Twitter user this was
my apologies for not paying attention I
didn't know it was going to stick with
me as much but somebody put in the
comments regarding are just inability to
stop developing AI they said great
filter go Burr and uh for people that
don't know what the great filter is it's
like why are there no aliens trying to
contact us and the one potential punch
line is that there's a great filter
could be AI could be thermonuclear war
but that just nobody can get past it and
so every society goes so far and then
stops here's another interesting idea
along that which God so for people that
know Graham Hancock who just really
believes that there was a an ancient
civilization far older than we think uh
and that it got oblited this was the
Fingerprints of the Gods book well he's
written a bunch of books on this but the
the most recent thing was called the
ancient apocalypse so he's been writing
about it for I don't know 30 years or
something his books are fascinating uh
and he
he so plants that initial seed and then
I again I don't know who said this this
was relayed to me by one of my employees
who was pulling wisdom from Twitter uh
and he said
it is entirely possible that AI really
is the uh great filter Gober and that we
have developed AI before and every time
we get to the point where AI takes over
much like in The Matrix we end up uh
relying on something in in that movie
they black in the sky but in reality if
technology Rises AI robots take over it
could be a massive solar flare that ends
up then just obliterating Ai and all the
technology and then we come up as a
civilization worshiping a sun god again
because it was like You Killed the
[ __ ] machines thank you uh and I
thought oh my God like probably not true
but the other one I thought about is if
you are this super amazing civilization
somewhere in the fall
ends of the solar system not the solar
system of wherever of nothingness
and you figured this out
so what you would do is you figure out
that organically you have to let
something grow because this nice kind of
organic computer is much better at
adaptation
up to a point so why would you not see a
billion planets
and one or two happen and
one or two spring life they'll all be
different but they'll all end up to your
point before in a aim machinery
and maybe those things turn organic
eventually
because
organic but with that kind of
augmentation
so maybe we are that maybe we were just
planted maybe the bacteria that started
the Earth
we're just planted on a billion planets
and ours happened to be one of them by
this
amazing group of whatever somewhere else
who the hell knows right
yeah okay so before we move on because
there's a whole nother thing I want to
get into
um I do want to wrap this up with a bit
of hope so thinking about this a lot
I think that there is so you said
something uh I can't remember if you
said it to me or somebody else I've seen
so much of your content uh but you said
that that we're
we're going to go through a Renaissance
and I think this ties into what you were
just saying which is guys what what
we're about to live through maybe it's
10 years maybe it's 100 years but we're
we're going to have a moment where
you're going to be able to utilize this
to massively extend your own
capabilities Impossible Is Possible
is possible
imagine that we've all grown up with
superhero films we've been given it
it's amazing
yeah this is going to be I think uh
it it already is so right now if I can
just get hyphy for a second so
that impact Theory
we're we're a media company so we're
trying to improve the world through
ideas and entertainment and they're two
separate sides of the company
on the idea side that's you know we've
been talking a lot about that AI is
going to help you think through things
it's going to help you see around
corners it's going to find
um signal and noise patterns that we
wouldn't otherwise be able to put
together but it it also so
I can't tell you I have honestly
lamented three things in my life lament
is the right word I have lamented my
limited intelligence I have lamented my
inability to sing and I have lamented my
inability to draw and
those are things that would make my life
better
I'm a very excitable person so take that
you know with a grain of salt but I
we're using AI to help us create project
Kaizen which for people that don't know
don't worry about it it's it is a new
form of video game and
I am limited my contributions are
limited by my ability to extract from my
head
the the vision the literal visuals and
make them a thing and so there was a
part of the experience that I was like
okay we have to move on we have to keep
going but it just wasn't good and it
didn't give me the visceral response I
wanted to feel when I saw it
and then
mid-journey comes along and I'm like oh
I I can actually now create the thing
that's in my head I can use text
to go this this is what I've been trying
to tell you and then no joke three days
later we we it's just so much better
it's unbelievable now we still had
humans had to go in and you basically
use it as art Direction but all that
frustration that I had of like not I'm
not feeling what I want to feel and I'm
not talented enough to translate the
emotion into words to get an artist to
create the thing but through prompt
engineering I could and so finally I
could go this this is what I've been
trying to say
that that is it felt like a superpower
it was one of the three things that I
have in fact I've never put this
together like this one of the three
things that I have lamented to a god I
don't technically believe in I have
lamented about not being able to draw
just to really make it simplistic and I
can now
and I understand why that makes artists
mad
but at the same time this is amazing and
for people that lament that they don't
have my verbal ability you now can
it's really and because I'm not a person
that gets overly defensive about
somebody else getting good at my thing
uh
I'm just excited it it really is as
close to superhero abilities as we're
going to get have you seen the music
version so one of my Lamentations is I
love music I just can't make it I can't
play guitar I can't sing can't do
anything
but I know in my head
what I want to create music from and
already again the stability AI people
have got a music version I think Google
have got one as well now coming out
where you can kind of say listen I want
that kind of deep Funk bass but I want
to have X like this and this same as you
just did is you're getting at your word
vomit of how you're visualizing it and
it'll make it so there's hope for us yet
Tom it'll trade well actually Auto-Tune
that's humans being augmented by
machines
it's very true all right uh we'll pivot
away from this because we've got a whole
lot more to talk about
um that is very exciting to me I think
that that
um while I am not a doe eyed Optimist
who is unaware of the potential dangers
I think that it will be an incredible
tool and I may be more optimistic than
others that uh there is there is a long
tail relationship to be had with AI that
does not need to be AI dominating us all
right having said all that
um may you live in interesting times as
the curse goes uh we're really living
through an interesting moment the
exponential age as you talked about
earlier we've got to Confluence a lot of
things but we also have an economic
moment right now
um that is weird and I'm very curious
when I started um doing the research for
this interview obviously you and I
interact quite a bit but when I started
doing the research for this interview I
thought I would hear a lot more
pessimism out of you about recession
about you know uh global economic
collisions from Russia and Ukraine to
China and that looked like they were
imploding for a while but you're pretty
optimistic so I'm very curious
um what's happening right now
so first thing most people need to
realize that Doom porn sells
it catches attention fear is the
strongest human emotion right and so you
see a lot of it because it it grabs
attention
so
we need to break apart two parts here
one is what do I think of the economy
and the other is what do I think about
markets so my economic view is I think
most of us even know it is we're in
recession
we're in recession and it's probably
going to get a bit worse and there's a
lot of people going to lose their jobs
and businesses are going to find it hard
there's less money around and it's going
to be pretty miserable
um and it's the sort of miserableness
that you go through periodically
that is not catastrophic
so it's a recession and recessions are
as old as Humanity itself
so we've just had what's confusing
people in my view
is we're so screwed up by the last three
events one was the pandemic
so there's no normality what was the
recession look like there that was the
weirdest one then 2008 was the end of
the entire Financial system and then
2001 was this spectacular Tech collapse
so people have an anchoring bias it's
like well it's the end of the world
really when I started when I graduated
University it was 1990
and it was a terrible time to graduate
because it was a recession and there
were no jobs and I wanted to go into
finance and they were firing people as
fast as possible
and it took a while it took a while
house prices went down for a while and
people didn't get jobs for a while and
people were laid off for a while and the
stock market went down 20 percent
it's a decent sized recession as well
went down 20 percent
took some time to recover the jobs came
back
the economy was cleaner they got rid of
some of the worst excesses of Leverage
and the world moved forwards and before
you knew it all of the 90s was a boom
I'm kind of of a bad opinion is
we have no systemic collapse coming we
don't have those kind of issues and
we've invented the magic printer the
money printer of quantitative easing
that papers over all troubles
so
we don't have that coming societally
yeah we've got a whole bunch of issues
to get through a U.S election with all
this Ai and the anger and the populism
but forget all of that again you can
easily go down the Doom or you can enjoy
the community you've got around you and
there's different ways you can have
lenses perspective on the world
investing
the job of markets is to look forwards
if you tell me a hundred percent of all
economists are forecasting a recession
it's kind of no [ __ ] Sherlock
um and therefore is it in the price toys
are all those stock market people really
stupid all of those machines that they
haven't heard you at all no they
actually understand this and it's a
real-time probability waiting business
so it kind of knows that
and what it looks forward to is okay how
bad is this is it catastrophic is the
world going to end what's going to
happen
and the markets are telling you
no
it's probably done my my view is the
bottom is in in markets and the bottom
was in crypto in June and for Bitcoin
was in October November the bottom was
in for the stock markets in October as
most end of bear markets happen it
priced in a recession
and we move forwards from here
and eventually they'll cut rates again
and if you think about it is we had a
total shutdown of the global economy
then a reopening of the global economy
that's caused this inflation that's hurt
everybody
and eventually we'll just rebalance back
to some form of normality there's a
massive amount of Doom porn about
inflation is going to be structurally
here forever we're all going to die
which is kind of
I'm more like you are with the AI side
where I'm actually like you know what
we've just developed AI we've got
Relentless technology the price of
energy is coming lower from all
different sources
productivity of humanity is growing
um
so I think
I think it's actually probably an
interesting time
it's an interesting time because
everybody's so bearish psychology plays
a huge part in markets
because
everybody expects inflation to be
relentless and ongoing and for the rest
of our lives much like
what 24 months ago everyone's like every
tech stocks going up forever and every
businesses can ever fail again
you know we're humans we make
forecasting errors of quite wide amounts
at various points so yes no I'm and I
spend it so I'm not just saying this
because I'm just chatting to you I mean
I do an enormous amount of work on this
I'll write 150 pages of research I sit
down writer every month if you're doing
that for 19 years
um and so that comes with 2
000 charts and models and stuff with
myself and uh my colleague Julian Bittle
from secular themes short-term theme
doesn't mean I'm not wrong as well I can
clearly be wrong but
I just think it's in the price
and what we the worst part of it is
is the stock market's going to be going
up probably it won't rock it up at first
but eventually it'll pick up
while we're all feeling the pain
because people are looking forward and
so they're saying okay the Bottom's in
Now's the Time to get in we know we're
going to go up from here so even though
we're still sort of going through it
people are losing their jobs but wise
investors are like you just need to
project this out into the future
yeah so there's a Time Horizon of how
the business cycle works currently the
thing that leads it the most is the
Chinese credit cycle who knew but it is
right now 17 months ahead so when it
turned up 17 months ago we're starting
to say huh okay there's something
happening here it also forecasts the
recession and then and then you've got
other forward-looking indicators about
nine months out
um we've got a bunch of indicators but
the last thing in the stack
is rents and the one before that is
wages
so wages are going up like this now but
they take a while and then they start
coming down again
they won't deflate nobody's going to
really come to you and force you to take
a
uh a pay cut but it means that they
don't keep going up
but your rents will probably come down
um and so that's a function of these
things just take time the unemployment
rise hasn't even started
now we can see everybody laying off
every company is laying off people
thinking about tightening costs everyone
can see it from sponsorship advertising
sales I mean it's everywhere and every
single person I speak to is like
Christ it's miserable out there
but the unemployment side doesn't really
come until it should start in the next
month or two
and then that goes on for nine months of
just relentlessly higher unemployment
rates so anybody watching this why is
that so predictable why nine months
it's just how it always is because
companies make decisions and whether
it's around board meetings however it's
done they get to a certain point where
they hit the panic button
um and they lay people off that's
usually when the bottom of the recession
starts it's usually when rates start
getting cut
it's usually when the stock market often
recovers as well
so for people watching this
two parts of this
one is if you're an investor
you might be able to buy these
technology stocks with this Renaissance
of amazing changes happening around us
at prices down 70 percent from where
they were two years ago a year ago okay
that's kind of interesting because your
expected future return goes up same with
crypto you know you and I've talked
about this you buy when the site the
business cycle brings it back to the the
bottom of the secular uptrend that's
where we are these are where you make
all the money this is what you get paid
for to take risk here
you you
don't get paid to take risk at the top
and you tend to lose money so these are
the moments in time
so that's very interesting as an
investor
but anybody watching this
think about your cash flows
think about cash flow think about your
expenditure and just say just
be a little bit careful because losing a
job or having your own business
struggling
for a period of time
and I think the worst of it will be over
relatively fast but yeah it's these
laggy what's what's relatively fast so I
said the world I'm recording this in in
March of 23 when do we think this turns
around so I think the bottom of the
economic cycle is in the next quarter so
I think we've got a really ugly course
to come but the problem is it's that
shock
that sets off the companies to go I need
to love some staff all of that and it's
that process that begins the healing
so the one is that shark so if that
shark isn't people getting laid off what
is the shark that's coming in the next
quarter the shock coming in the next
quarter is is the general slowdown from
interest rates
you know biting into all of these
indebted companies or households or
credit cards and all of this stuff and
everybody goes uh I'm not going to spend
money that is what a recession is
you know it's not usually driven by a
pandemic it's not usually driven by the
entire Financial system collapsing it's
usually by all of us making a rational
decision of
I'm just not going to spend money right
now because things are a bit uncertain
and that is what causes recessions
and I'm actually telling people to do
exactly that because it's the rational
thing to do
what you do if you're going to panic
panic early
and I'm not talking about the stock
market going down either I think we've
had that went down the NASDAQ went down
38 percent
that's pretty much bang in line with a
regular bear Market but what I'm saying
is in your personal life what it really
matters where the rubber hits the road
is panic early
just look at your expenditure look at
your cost look at your business so what
do I need to do here uh just to make
sure that I can just get through a
pretty shitty year but 2024 probably
pretty decent
so what is the natural cycle of things
why do people begin to warm back up and
what are the threats if any that you see
looming so
housing I'm hearing
housing bubble bursting probably
is that it it's just people are
overreacting not real the housing market
is expensive
interest rates have gone up
so people are going to buy less houses
yes
will house prices come down yes because
they went up a lot
will the activity in the housing market
dry up for maybe two years yeah most
likely
um are we going to see a leveraged crash
no because nobody's really got a lot of
Leverage at household level in property
that was something that happened in 2008
it's been too expensive and too
difficult to do
so I think the home builders have a bit
of trouble because they've got a lot of
inventory they can't sell it they need
to finance it for a couple of years it
sits around 1990 91 92 was very similar
I was in London there and it was pretty
shitty in the property Market it's great
for me because I just entered the
property Market at the end of that so
prices were relatively low they don't
come down a lot but that hadn't gone up
a lot and my income was going up because
I was in my 20s so income goes up every
year because you're hopefully getting
promoted and stuff like that so
um but you know a few property
developers went bus things were slow
and then eventually it cleaned up so I'm
more of that opinion that you know house
prices come off 10 percent
maybe even 15 you know some areas that
were really hot come down a bit further
but it doesn't expose any catastrophic
leverage the banking system is more than
adequately compensated with capital
um it's hugely sold in the United States
so
it's just a bad time
it's just about what do you think about
about rates are they going to continue
to go up is there because the FED as far
as I know is signaling that they are
going to keep taking rates up
yeah so every single forward-looking
indicator that I have on inflation
suggests that inflation utterly
collapses
um if you want to see a real-time
inflation data look at something called
trueflation TR you inflation
um it's actually on blockchain it takes
hundreds of thousands of individual
prices on a real-time basis and it tells
you where inflation is today in U.S
inflation today is about 4.74 percent
wow this is the headline whichever six
so and if we think of what inflation is
it's the year-on-year comparison what
happened last year Well between March
and June was Russia invading Ukraine and
every commodity came through
so we're going to see the flip side of
that
so we will see inflation come off very
fast all my forward-looking indicators
that that look at it from different
angles all suggest the same so I think
the FED is speaking Max aggression
because they want to make sure that the
out of the Embers doesn't rise the
Phoenix again so I just want to Stamp
Out people's expectations of higher
prices in the future they know there's a
recession coming they can see the
inflations coming so uh that um
recession is coming so I think it's the
final game which is like get down and
stay down
um and then that that's what they've
done and so my guess is we'll be having
this conversation in
September
September somewhere between September
and December
and they'll have cut rates
whoa you think they're going to start
cutting that fast so how does the market
is telling you that that's the market
and the FED are saying that's wrong
that's not true we're here higher for
longer
but if unemployment is going to rise
they have two mandates inflation
unemployment
inflation is going to be falling on
unemployment Rising they cannot go to
Congress and say oh yeah we're just
going to do this a bit longer
they're just going to fire them all
there is politics involved in the end so
no they will cut rates and they should
do it by then for sure
so how is it though going back to the
idea of the Embers is the place from
which the Phoenix is going to rise and
you know we're going to go rocketing
back into Euphoria and end up back in
the same spot
How does cutting rates that soon why not
hold
you won't be asking for that in in
September you'll be begging them
your friends will be losing jobs people
are you know getting decimated there's
houses in your street that don't sell
you're like really guys what do you want
to do destroy everybody that's that's
how it always works and then also
everyone's got a lot of debt all the
corporations in America plus the
households are 120 of GDP in debt and
the US government's 100 GDP in debt
so the when I think about the US
government and the amount of debt that
we're carrying and I think about
interest rates being this High it it is
there a conversation I know I'm asking
you to prognosticate here but is there a
conversation going on between the US
government and the FED of like hey get
ready to pull those rates down because
they themselves have all this debt
service that they're going to have to do
yes
and I think it's global I'm I'm I've
just been developing I've written a lot
of that sorry I'm not finished at any
sentence I've just cut discovered
something that really quite shocked me
that I've been writing a lot about to
get my thought process in global macro
investor
my understanding is that
all debt that the US has borrowed
above
GDP growth so if GDP grows at two
percent and debt growth grows four
percent everything above
is only for financing interest payments
since 2009 since the recession
and so that all of that money is the
exact same amount
as the size of the FED balance sheet
so they are
issuing bonds
to pay the interest that's so that's
paying your credit card with another
credit card
and then giving it to your dad and say
well you settle the bill it's which is
the Fed
so I think they completely know what's
going on and I haven't really shared
this with anybody yet
I also think it's Global and it's
understood
and it's all smoke and mirrors that we
never saw what the game was
and I think I've proven it that this is
all all the central banks did this is
what quantitative easing and step back
is what what am I talking about in this
scrambled nonsense that I'm saying
the US for easy maths
long-term Trend rate of growth is 1.75
but let's call it two percent
interest rates have been average around
two percent let's say for easy maths
and the government is 100 of GDP in debt
so
so therefore their interest payments are
two percent of the entire GDP which is
how much the economy grows okay
put that over there but you guys in the
private sector
you're also 100 of GDP in debt
where does your two percent come from
because GDP is all of the activity in
the economy and that's just gone to the
government
sorry guys you're either going to go
Bust or we're going to blow up and
you're going to blow up the banking
system or
or we're gonna have to keep eating this
negative growth difference of two
percent every year until you get rid of
this debt and we're all folked
so once you realize that these two pools
are both 100
you realize okay somebody is going to
have to do something so it ends up on
the fair balance sheet
so when you go to Japan really
interesting because Japan the households
are massive savers
companies are pretty in-depth the
government's massively in debt
and it's the same but because their
interest rates are lower they can have
more debt
but their economy grows really slow as
well
so you get to a certain point and then
you'll have to say right it has to go
into the balance sheet the Europeans
have been doing the same the Brits have
been doing the same
it's all the same thing
it's like a there was like it feels that
and this is going to sound ridiculous it
feels like there was a global treaty
of which okay this is where we are
we can't the debt has got too big
and nobody can pay the interest payments
without destroying the global economy
so we're just gonna have to
Pretend We're not
um debasing the currency and call it
quantitative easing and say it's a
precise way of injecting money exactly
into the right part of the financial
system and it's like no what you're
doing is
getting a credit card to pay for your
credit card and then giving it to your
dad and say you you worry about this
it's not my problem
well so I want to see if I'm if I'm
tracking this because not to get back
into Doom porn but this seems pretty
Doom porny uh okay so for people it's
not because the world works it's not
Doom porn because it works every time
they do it are we just pushing off a
problem
Okay so
it's making assets go up when they do it
it is meaning that companies don't
default the banking system remains sound
but are we originally able to get out of
out of debt so let me make sure I'm
understanding what you're saying this is
going to be very important
okay so the I know we're using round
numbers but this is very helpful so
worldwide GDP gross domestic product the
the amount of productivity so the
capital that is usable effectively
uh you have two different people
that have debt in that amount
which there's no one to to have real
money
to pay the [ __ ] thing off
so if you had one person that was like
okay we're maxed out we're two percent
but GDP is two percent cool we have the
path Just Be Frugal and and you've got a
path out of this but when you have two
people that owe the whole amount
effectively
you now go into money printing
and I mean if this works I'm actually
okay with it I know how that's going to
get me lit up but it so the solution
here is okay we have two two large
groups governments private sector which
are all the groups that exist and each
one of them owes the entire worldwide
GDP in debt
you can't both be in that situation
there's no Peter there's no uh you can't
rob a Peter to pay Paul because they're
both in the same situation
so now the only thing left is
printing money devaluing everybody
to get out of this situation but the way
in which we do that
by buying things from uh the private
sector
is we're making people that hold assets
wealthier we're increasing the gap
between the rich and the poor because
the way that we inject money into this
system only reaches people that own
assets and so we've created this problem
and the only way out is to print money
which is going to increase the the Ginny
coefficient for people that know that
phrase where it's like nobody cares in
absolute dollars how much you have you
just hate that your neighbor Timmy has
more than you and so you freaked the
[ __ ] out and so it becomes the
differential that becomes the
destabilizing element so what you said
assuming what I just repeated is correct
that sounds destabilizing
and Doom porn so help what is the other
what is the other outcome
the other outcome is let it all burn
clearly a terrible idea
when you're this far in debt let it all
burn doesn't work anymore
right that's the end of that's kind of
end of civilization stuff Ultra Doom
porn so you're faced with Doom porn and
Ultra Doom porn
what are you doing
right there was no other way so this is
what people need to understand
what is GDP
GDP is a summable economic activity that
goes on and it's comprised GDP growth
rates are comprised very simply of
the number of people in your economy
is it growing
if it's growing your economy grows
because there's more people generating
more activity generally
secondly is
how much productivity does it have I are
those people productive do they make a
lot of stuff for each man hour
and finally is how fast is debt growing
so when we have an aging population
the
number of humans declines over time
what happens is we stopped immigration
almost everywhere because
everyone was under pressure for income
because real wages haven't gone up so we
we lowered the rate of immigration so
that lowers Trend rate of growth aging
population they're less productive and
they spend less so GDP keeps doing this
for decades on end
baked in the cake from from that they
become less productive because they're
older people and
a whole bunch of them on in the labor
force anymore okay so you're not very
productive you're getting old
not population growing so guess what
Bingo answer debt
we just took on debt
right
it was rational until it's not
it's like it's rational to Super
leverage yourself on a house and house
prices go up and you look like a god
until you get it wrong and you lose
everything so
it was rational to take the debt and
this is where we've got to and then it
was the government's got into the same
boat and everyone was just they're there
so now the debt is the debt debt growth
is actually not that high anymore
because we've hit the ceiling
so the only way to solve this this goes
back to our earlier conversation is we
cannot solve population growth
and debt growth is peaked out
so we've got the one thing in the middle
called productivity and it takes us
right back to AI
and the robots and cryptocurrencies
internet of things green energy all of
these things
so if you are governments look what
Europe's doing it's interesting and
maybe I'm just inventing a narrative but
Europe the US Japan they all know what
they're doing so they're printing money
to cover their bills
um and Europe thinks well Christ we need
to get the bloody economy going here
because GDP growth is what pays our
bills and it's pretty sluggish because
everyone's old here and everyone's in
debt and the banking system is a mess
let's do a double whammy which is what
the US did back in the 40s
let's put as much stimulus as we can
from this fake money
and RAM it into the green energy sector
and we're going to build a lot of stuff
and we understand a lot of stuff is
going to be wasted Capital but out of it
we're going to do one amazing thing and
the it will happen
is out of this
energy costs will collapse
now this is really important for people
to understand
what does technology do technology
drives more productivity out of a single
unit of energy
kind of once you see this thing it's
like that's what humans do with
everything it's like find a way of
getting extracting more for that barrel
of oil because that's what we use
now that barrel of oil has been our
fixed energy source since we replaced
whale oil so we've been using this
and so it's been the constant so
Technology's had to drive all the
productivity in every way it can based
on how much is this so we've had to
bring computational power down
everything down so that one fixed thing
which is the price of oil which on a
inflation adjusted basis been pretty
stable for the last 70 80 years
and if what the US is doing with its
inflation Act and the Europeans are
doing with its green energy in Japan is
doing and China's doing and Australia is
doing and the UK is doing
if they force enough investment in
they will change the energy source of
the world
and because all of these have
exponential downtrends in cost
we will change the energy coefficient
and what happens is productivity
times the lowering the cost of energy is
an exponential change for all of us
that's how you solve this
there's almost no other way of solving
this problem of slow GDP growth old
populations massive debts
without blowing up everything
so you're gonna have to keep doing this
money printing thing which is miserable
because it makes some people rich and
other people poor
and or you can have inflation which just
makes everybody miserable they're all
terrible things but the faster you can
get to changing that productivity
equation
the better because it's the it's the
only way there's no there's simply no
other way of solving it
you either Rob from everybody or grow
the economy
with a declining population
um so
talk to me about the energy you're
saying that so maybe I have uh just an
undereducated view on the green energy
front so
you see the cost of energy coming down
as we invest more and more into the
green energy side
yes so
right now we're in transition where
we're not probably producing enough oil
and we don't have enough energy coming
out of
solar winds geothermal nuclear all of
that so you know we've got this Market
where Energy prices are high because of
supply issues namaste
but when you look at the trend
all of these are growing as a percentage
share
of the energy grid there's still oil and
coal are still massive right but
they're coming down and Europe's really
forcing it
uh decarbonization and so we're seeing a
rise of these others
they start some of them subsidized but
the subsidies go over time
but the really interesting is none of
that is the fact that the cost per unit
of energy keeps coming down
and many of these are now cheaper than
natural gas which was very cheap
so it's like huh okay
and we've only just started where we are
in this exponentiality so my view is
in 20 years time
the cost of energy will be marginal
for everybody and everything
much like the cost of water is marginal
for everybody
and the cost of many things we take for
Grants are totally marginal
now I don't know if given your macro
Outlook that this is a reasonable
question to ask you or not but
um
when when you look out at uh the rate of
adoption of green energy do you think
that we're because you just said like
maybe we're not producing enough oil and
gas do you think that we're moving too
rapidly in that direction or do you
think no no you you make these huge
Investments you have to put regulation
in place force people to do it faster
because these have a a far more
technology-based exponential
um okay so this is the inverse of the
GDP problem
to manage its smooth decline or do you
blow up
here so you transition slowly
with the issues of climate change and
the issues of
um cost of energy and all these other
things and the need for productivity
or do you blow up I
just take short-term pain
to get to the promised land faster
again it's probably a rational economic
decision to do that
so
maybe or maybe not Energy prices rise
I'm not entirely sure well copper prices
rise probably will some prices rise
probably can that be offset by Ai and
other deflationary pressures probably
you know it's not baked in the cake
people always conflate some commodity
going up in price to see inflation's
back and it's all going to run rampant
again it's very rare that that happens
we've just had it now so it's going to
be in everybody's head as the boogie
monster but they're looking they're
usually looking at the wrong boogie
monster so
so
it's gonna be a balancing act
um maybe they get it right maybe they
get it wrong but I think they're all
pretty most of these governments are
pretty
sure that they want to do it as fast as
they can
and so does that mean that they would
if by their actions they cause high
energy prices for five years
would they give out stimulus handouts to
people
probably
is that not the best way to say listen
if you are getting hurt by this and
guess what that's exactly what Europe's
just done last year was giving handouts
to people saying look we understand your
electricity bill is high and it's hard
for you so we'll we'll help you
um now did that drive inflation to some
extent
maybe but maybe not I mean it was just
going for the electricity bill you
didn't give people extra money in their
pocket so it's complicated as everything
is but I don't know I'm kind of in a I'm
a fan of if you're going to go for
positive change do it as fast as
possible if you're going to go to
negative change and you can glide path
take the Glide path
very interesting so
um and I'm not a fan I'm not a fan of
content of easing or any of that stuff
I'm just like this evil this evil
which ones you want to choose
yeah it is a very interesting question
so when you were talking I was in in
full acknowledgment of the human mind
goes to the problems
um
in the context we're in now and I I am
not a geopolitical thinker and so I want
to be very clear about that I want
people to understand that I am I am
seeking to uh increase the island of my
knowledge
um
when I when I look at as somebody who
has
studied from uh how do evil people get
control perspective studied what Hitler
did in World War II
he was very much like not seeing the
increase in productivity path out of
things and so he's like well for Germany
to get out from under this terrible
weight we have to start land grabbing
and when I say Russia that is the
population part of the equation
right
when you're taking over countries
where you're actually doing this game of
people and resources so you're solving
for your own population productivity
more resources but you're actually
getting the people part of the GDP
equation
that's interesting so
um
how do you contextualize Russia and the
Ukraine in this moment where you've got
the private sector the governments are
completely indebted you're at a position
where
birth rates are declining certainly in
the Western World very rapidly if
demographics are Destiny and we are just
in a [ __ ] show demographically
does that when you were talking I
started looking at the Russia Ukraine
thing in a totally different light and
I'm very much somebody on the outside of
that I'm not close to it at all uh but
I'm very curious if that sort of
re-contextualization of oh this is
somebody who's like well I know how to
solve this problem quite rapidly uh or
am I looking at it wrong
um
I don't like geopolitics
because
so much of it is
stuff that we don't know so if there's
so much conjecture
about almost everything in geopolitics
apart from the fact that Russian troops
are in Ukraine and they're fighting each
other
whose motivations of what for what and
how I don't even know
but one thing it did do
to go back to what we were talking about
it accelerated Europe everyone thought
well the European is going to back away
from their green energy policy now
aren't they
the Europeans went no [ __ ] you we're now
super motivated to get this done as fast
as possible because we do not want to be
beholden to
Russia or the United States
or anybody else for that matter
energy Independence is an incredible
thing right it's one of the powers that
superpowers that the United States has
has energy Independence
all other energy on Earth could go and
the US has oil and gas
and more of it than pretty much anybody
else in the world so
I so it also if you think about the
history of war and how much it's been
fought over the Middle East
not because we want some sand or the few
people
because we want the energy
and we want to control it because the
energy is the thing come on what it was
called in in um
in June but whatever the thing is Right
humans would want to control the thing
whether it was whale oil this or
whatever the thing spice right in spice
that's right spice so that's what
that's what the US controls and the
Russia controls a bunch of it
and we want to change that equation and
the Europeans are in the Middle with not
enough of it
and it's in everybody's interest for
everybody to walk away
from this one commodity rule in the
world
because it's not the commodity we care
about it's the energy we care about
well said
talk to me about China
um seemed for a while like things were
getting pretty dicey you had people if
it can be believed people protesting
like crazy uh governments making funds
unavailable to people I saw that happen
in Cyprus up close given that Lisa's
family is from Cyprus
um
uh what what's the status of things
uh
a Chinese economy is slowing down and
they locked themselves into a really
brutal lockdown for the pandemic and
even the Chinese people who quite
compliant you know Asian populations
tend to be more societally compliant
than us who kind of like saying [ __ ] you
to everybody if it doesn't suit their
interests so you know Europeans are
quite societally minded as well
generally speaking
um so
the Chinese ask too much to their people
for whatever reason I don't know whether
it was actually for a real reason in the
end
or whether it's for autocratic reasons
or whatever anyway economic growth pulls
off a cliff uh people are angry
growth is weakening property markets a
mess that's where that's one of the big
wealth gates for everybody in China
That's where people make money
um people in the streets and people are
angry
the Chinese are kind of interesting
enough started stimulating
and then you know they locked up all
these entrepreneurs and threw them in
prison or threw them down well
um they're now like well we've decided
we need to be growing up five and a half
percent a year and we want entrepreneurs
back and you know and they've reopened
to Hong Kong for cryptocurrency so it
feels like whatever they were doing
they've got what they wanted whether it
was because she wanted to get control
again the Game of Thrones is not a game
that I I like to get involved in and
because everybody speculates we don't
know all I know Chinese are stimulating
they want the economy to grow and um
they seem to want to be an entrepreneur
I don't know why you choose to be an
entrepreneur in China because you know
the next cycle around you you get shot
and replaced by the next one but
somebody's gonna do it
I didn't know that they had reopened
back up sorry go ahead yeah so again
think about mentality we're at the
bottom this is the worst markets forward
looking at Chinese stock markets up like
50 already
and they're driving parts of the global
cycle so
when you read it in the news headlines
it's usually too late
no doubt now I didn't realize that they
had opened um uh Hong Kong backup for
crypto what do you think about the
General State of crypto is this uh yeah
crypto like I I have heard
um people now it's AI has become like
the new hot girl and all that energy
that was in cryptos the future it's
going to change everything web3 oh my
God is now like nah that's whatever AI
is where it's at
um how do you see crypto where is this
going is this a temporary downturn and
we boom back literally nothing's changed
since I last came to talk to you about
it I said it bottom then
I still think it's bottom and six months
later it's bottomed and some of these
are up 100 plus from the low
the global liquidity cycle the
forward-looking indicators had turned up
a while ago
so and the business cycle will get
through the trough and through the other
side so Chris says going up now does it
go up straight does it have some
volatility
I don't know but it seems pretty good so
far it seems to go up do a bit sideways
go up do a bit of sideways at some point
there'll be a bit of a reasonable down
everyone like oh my God and then it'll
keep going up so yeah there was no free
money you take risk with crypto I'm
super comfortable all I speak to is
giant Brands giant people you know just
spoke to had a great interview uh on
real version with the uh two of the
heads of institutional business coinbase
what they're building out the kind of
people they're speaking to I'm seeing on
the other side you know everybody from
car companies to sports teams to music
companies all looking at the space we're
looking at you know what we're building
a real Vision what you're building what
is going on how the vibrant the
community is in a bear Market
um I'm seeing consolidation I'm seeing
the regulatory fight happening
um we're seeing court cases finally
going through like the the grayscale and
the Ripple case where people eventually
get the SEC into a place where it is
acceptable but I always said this they
will always push too far every job is to
push back and they'll they'll get
somewhere in the middle
um and that's what they're establishing
now so
there's and the Chinese are coming back
on
um in a thoughtful manner I spoke to as
part of my kind of crypto show Razzle
Adventure crypto I spoke to the monetary
authority of Singapore got a good friend
there who's the chief fintech officer
he's like yeah all systems go over here
just been over to India it's like and
he's Indian himself he's like you cannot
he said I cannot express how amazing
their Central Bank digital currency
system is
we're all go everything's fine the USA
only ones dragging their feet the UK and
that interview before we move on to the
UK that interview which I watched
um I thought was very interesting your
guys's own title on that was uh
governments go called on bitcoin yeah
and so he seemed very excited about the
I forget the name of it but the the
currency that everybody the digital
currency everybody's using on the street
which has a name uh and he was like
booming over here you your jaw will be
on the floor to see how rapidly this is
the Central Bank digital currency the
the government version of a digital
payments rails there's a name for it
though
digital Ruby I forget it yeah yeah
something like that uh so that was
interesting but he was like
it hasn't played out yet in terms of
cryptocurrencies in fact I think one of
the early things he said was it's not
really a currency
yeah so what he's done is gone down
three parts Central Bank stuff because
he's actually involved with all that bis
um Bank of international settlements
group that are building out the world's
digital rail so he cares about that
he was very disappointed that Australia
had been using it to build
um their whole
um stock markets using crypto
blockchains and kind of walks away from
it so he was like that's a big blow
he said
ethereum and things like that where
you're building on top of a network so
you know we're all for that we like it
we're building on it and we're doing
stuff
cryptocurrency which was his expression
for something that has no other use case
apart from a monetary use case
Bitcoin
um he's like we do not want
and he was he was unusually strong I
mean you saw the interview he was
unusually strong about that because he's
he's not usually that guy but I think
he's also gone through the
the crusher because he really you know
in Singapore he's like let's do this and
then the whole Space is down eighty
percent and
and my guess is a lot of people said to
him are you an idiot or what
um and he's tried to explain to people
is this is what the space is like it's
volatile it's early technology so
so overall the bigger picture is I'm
still incredibly positive my mind hasn't
changed whatsoever and if I go back to
the point I made before
crypto is priced by two things
the technological adoption curve which
is exponential so you need to put a
logarithmic chart
you put a nice little logarithmic chart
at the bottom of the log channel so
we've got to the bottom and it's driven
the ups and downs these crazy ups and
downs that look crazy until they pop on
a log challenge it's not normal
those crazy up and down are driven by
uh the money supply
the liquidity cycle the business cycle
and so here we are on the secular trend
and the business cycle is turning up and
prices are down quite a lot this gives
you the highest probability of that
buying them all the way up to the top
well I'm gonna wait till I'm gonna wait
till Bitcoin gets to 50 000 then I'm
gonna it's not the way to do this you
either believe in the space
and therefore invest cash when nobody
else is
when it's at the right points
or your dollar cost average and do it in
a sensible way but these are the times
so I'm immensely excited still and see
nothing but opportunity and volatility
yes very very well said well I could
talk to you endlessly this is always so
fun uh where do you want people to go to
engage with you
uh yeah there's a we've done a lot about
this exponential stuff in fact I've got
Emma mustak coming on real version for a
second time nice because he he was an
old friend of mine and he just happened
to suddenly I I find out he just started
the thing he was a macro guy like me
so uh come over to realvision.com
um we've got right now we've got
actually so two weeks of stuff which is
called how to unfuck your future which
is basically all the stuff you and I
talk about which is like okay what are
the problems let's take them out let's
look at them and let's figure out how we
can solve them so we're doing that on
real Visions so people should go it's
like a one dollar trial or something so
just do that
um if not you can find me on YouTube
um also at real Vision or find me on
Twitter
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