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is AI dangerous next to thermonuclear
war and an asteroid strike I'd say it's
the most radically dangerous threat that
we face as a species but I'm still super
excited and by the end of this video you
will be too let's talk about how I
learned to stop worrying and love the AI
bomb
if you're terrified of AI right now you
are rational if you're not at least
worried it will take a wrong turn into
James Cameron territory you're not
paying attention to paraphrase Elon Musk
the human endeavor to create AI could be
the first step towards the technological
Utopia or a demon summoning Circle it's
not clear which way it will go but one
thing is for sure we will not control it
and he's right but the truth is the
genie is already out of the bottle and
we are going to have to deal with it
here's where we're at God or Evolution
however you want to think of it has
imbued us with certain insatiable
desires things that no matter how many
times you do them you still want more
hunger thirst sleep and sex no one
argues but I'd like to add another one
to the list that has put us in this
situation the desire for Progress no
matter how good things get we want them
to get better that's led to massively
increased lifespan electricity landing
on the moon and raising the vast vast
vast majority of the world out of
poverty not to mention iPhones and
vibrators for the most part our
insatiable drive for progress is awesome
the modern world really is a miracle we
have buses that can fly for the love of
God and if people like Eric Weinstein
are correct our thirst for Progress will
lead us to Building Technology that
doesn't just allow us to fly around the
world it will give us the ability to
manipulate time and space itself
propelling us well beyond our solar
system at faster than light speeds all
of that progress though leaves us with
one very uncomfortable question are we
trying to reach beyond our solar system
out of the sense of adventure or because
we know we'll need to escape the
sentient Killer Robots we've created I
fear it's going to be a bit of both by
the way if you don't know who I am I'm
Tom bilyeu co-founder of Quest Nutrition
and impact Theory one company I sold for
a billion dollars and the other is
generated roughly half a billion views
I've made a lot of money and touched a
lot of lives by seeing opportunities
that others have missed and I'm telling
you right now despite the dangers we're
going to discuss AI is the opportunity
that you've been waiting for but to
avoid AI making the great filter go Burr
or simply passing Us by as we stand on
the sidelines we have to make a move get
involved and make sure that we all
approach this god-tier technology
thoughtfully let me give you an example
for scale a is technically someone
with an an IQ of about 70 the average IQ
in the U.S is 98 Einstein was estimated
to be 160. and according to the Guinness
Book of World Records the highest IQ
ever recorded came in at a whopping 210.
that means that a Super Genius is only
three times smarter than a but
Einstein who is actually only 2.3 times
smarter than a had insights that
gave birth to nuclear power and nuclear
bombs not to mention lasers GPS and a
whole lot more now nuclear warheads are
scary enough but AI isn't going to be a
little smarter than Einstein it's going
to be a lot smarter not five times
smarter or 10 times smarter or even 10
000 times smarter we're talking millions
of times smarter and in case you think
I'm exaggerating futurist Ian Pearson
told the world government Summit that AI
could become billions of times smarter
than humans how because AI isn't limited
by by the messy chemical-laden realities
of being a meat bag like we humans are
we have to wait roughly 20 years for the
Next Generation to be born grow to
sexual maturity and have more kids AI on
the other hand is a non-biological
system that is only limited by the laws
of physics AI will be able to think at
the speed of light and will only be
limited by the ever increasing rate at
which it can learn to configure
electrons in novel ways the evolution of
AI won't play out over Millennia it will
play out first over decades then over
years then over months and finally over
minutes or even seconds until we reach
the technological singularity where AI
will be capable of making twenty
thousand years of human progress
overnight
and if you want a mile marker for where
we're at in the march to the singularity
I'd say we're at the month stage at this
point how much longer it's going to take
to reach the actual Singularity where
the rate of change is so fast we can no
longer predict the future is anybody's
guess but futurist Ray Kurzweil predicts
it will happen by
2045. now why should you believe him
because approximately 87 of the
technological predictions he's made over
the last three decades have come true
and in just one month open ai's chat GPT
has gone from not existing to being used
by 100 million users AI works and it's
getting better every day now don't panic
I've got a six-part plan for how I think
we not only deal with AI but
dramatically increase our odds that it
ends up as a Utopia and not a summoning
Circle but first I want to squarely face
the specific problems that I see coming
stick with me for the happy ending in
the short term you're going to want to
dress like Patrick Bateman or Dexter
because There Will Be Blood jobs are
going to be replaced and skills that
took people decades to acquire will now
be available to anyone that can type Aid
fakes that imitate people will be so
commonplace and so indistinguishable
from reality that you'll no longer be
able to trust your eyes or ears all
videos images and audio recordings will
need to be verified in some way videos
of political leaders saying outlandish
and inflammatory will go viral as
hackers try to sow dissent same with
CEOs and other members of public
companies whose stock price will get
hammered before people realize a given
announcement was fake most if not all
music Writing Movies TV paintings books
Etc will be created using Ai and
terrifyingly one thousand one money
scams will pop up including things like
fake phone calls from children to
unsavvy parents asking for money and the
parents will fall for it because they
won't realize that AI can make videos
that are so Pixel Perfect to a call from
their actual child it will look like
their kid talk like their kid sound like
their kid it will even be able to
predict much of what their kid knows and
would say and don't even get me started
on germline Gene editing that topic is
so big it would require a whole another
video now most of these worries are
still years away but honestly all of
that is just the tip of the iceberg
despite the reality of all the bad stuff
that's coming here are three traps we
must avoid if we want to get through
this well one burying our heads in the
sand two panicking three trying to
abolish AI we can't bury our heads in
the sand because of what's known as the
paperclip problem as AI soothsayer Nick
Bostrom famously noted and I'm
paraphrasing here AI must be goal
directed to function and we have to be
super careful to align ai's goals with
our own because if we don't for example
an AI was set to be a paperclip
maximizer and wasn't aligned to our
goals it may determine but no malice
whatsoever that the atoms in your body
would be better utilized to make more
paper clips and just like that it
disassembles you and makes more paper
clips and did I mention that robots will
be able to move so fast you'd need a
strobe light to see them there are also
though optimistic reasons why we need to
keep our heads out of the sand namely if
we get AI right it will make life better
for all 8 billion plus people on Earth
more on this in a minute but first let's
talk about panicking pay panicking is
the same as actively taking your own
intelligence offline when you panic
blood leaves your prefrontal cortex
which is the seed of high level
cognition therefore it actually makes
you dumber and in the face of artificial
super intelligence that strikes me as a
very bad idea so that leaves trying to
abolish Ai and you might be asking if in
the face of sufficiently advanced AI we
are nothing more than an ant hill
standing in the way of progress why on
Earth wouldn't we abolish it well to say
it succinctly we can't it's not in our
DNA hang tight because this is going to
be the bleakest thing that I say today
but if we're going to walk a wise path
forward we've got to face all of this
and as I say it's darkest right before
the dawn which I promise is actually
coming but first here's the reality you
will instantly know to be true when
humans find powerful things we use them
and we use them to get an advantage for
our tribe it's a phenomenon known as the
tragedy of the commons it's why we
overfish the oceans everyone says well
if I don't do what someone else is going
to and there's truth to that game theory
actually says that each Nation will ask
a simple question if I don't develop AI
will someone else and then use it to
defeat me and the answer is yes no doubt
because AI as a weapon is a zero-sum
game if only one nation develops it it
will be a winner take all scenario and
no one can risk an adversary getting
artificial super intelligence while the
other team sits around entering funny
prompts into chat GPT we've played this
game out already with nukes and the
reality is that to stop someone from
using a nuke on you you need nukes
yourself it is the terrifying notion of
mutually assured destruction or at least
people act as if that's the only way and
the same is going to be true for AI to
stop someone from using AI against them
virtually every nation on Earth will
develop AI or align themselves with
somebody that does and that becomes the
new arms race and if you're hoping we
can learn from nuclear proliferation and
just stop all of this madness before it
starts I'm afraid you're a couple of
decades too late AI is feverishly being
developed by China the U.S Japan Germany
and the UK just to name the leaders and
you don't have to go back far to
remember a time when all of those
countries were trying to kill each other
okay now the moment you've all been
waiting for it the path forward in the
short term you need to do three things
one reframe your thinking around AI do
not see it as the enemy see it as a tool
you're not going to be replaced by AI at
least not yet you're going to be
replaced by a human using AI so be the
human that replaces others get control
of the AI learn to use it two figure out
how AI is going to disrupt you face it
head on don't shy away from this don't
run don't hide identify your
vulnerabilities and aggressively Shore
them up with additional skill set three
identify all the AI tools that are
relevant to you and master them learn
absolutely everything you can remember
this is the very beginning of a very
aggressive Revolution that's going to
change everything moving quickly gives
you advantages for the long term as a
society we need to do three more things
number one this is an idea that raupal
introduced to me be excellent to one
another now that's super dough wide and
naive but for reasons I'll explain in a
minute I think it's actually important
to spread this message far and wide even
if it's cheesy here's why it matters AI
is being trained on human behavior let
that one sink in AI the thing that's
going to be a million or even a billion
times smarter than us is still at first
going to be trained on us human
interactions and human Creations think
of it as a child if the parents are
fighting and arguing and being horrible
to each other that's going to affect how
the child grows up so my my friends I
beg of you be excellent to each other
number two from a regulatory and
development perspective we need to focus
on an unending amount of attention on
aligning ai's incentives with our own so
many people anthropomorphize AI that
they assume it will have by Nature our
same desire for survival the reality is
AI will only do what it's incentivized
to do notice I didn't say what is
programmed to do because yes it won't be
in our control forever and it will start
programming itself but it will always
follow its own incentives the reasons
that humans will kill to stay alive is
because that's what nature hardwired us
to do in order for us to survive we came
up hard man as a species everything was
trying to eat US History was indeed red
in tooth and Claw whether it was other
animals whether it was disease whether
it was humans we really had to have a
strong motivation to fight for our
survival to get where we were going but
as evolutionary biologist Richard
Hawkins notes evolution is a blind
watchmaker
we are not AI is our creation and it
isn't a biological system it doesn't
need to develop an emotional incentive
to live so as we think about how we help
machines evolve we need to take that
into consideration machines don't need a
primitive limbic brain to drive them
forward like humans which were developed
over the long unguided Arc of evolution
what AI needs are directives which we
can program with intelligence and
forethought and unless a survival
Instinct is actually baked into the
nature of Consciousness itself which I
doubt and AI actually becomes conscious
it need not ever be driven to reproduce
lead or eradicate humans in pursuit of
its goals that's us assuming AI is going
to act like us but you can even see this
playing out when AI competes in games
like go the people that play against it
the Masters they all say the same thing
it's like playing an alien AI is not
going to perceive the world in the same
way that we do but we get this ability
in the beginning to nudge it in the
right direction to make sure that its
incentive structure is set up well so
that we have a much better hope of
things working out well in the end the
third thing we need to co-evolve with AI
remember AI is a tool instead of
stepping back and just saying well
whatever happens happens let's use AI to
keep up with AI it's obvious to me that
the pathboard is completely
unpredictable in the specifics but
directionally I think it's safe to say
that we're not going to outperform AI by
ourselves we're going to need the help
of AI itself to paraphrase Sam Altman
the founder of openai I have no idea how
open AI is going to become a big
business I'm going to build a super
intelligence and then ask it how to do
it now we said a tongue-in-cheek but
it's actually pretty true now putting my
doe eyed optimistic hat on for a second
there's another critical thing to focus
on in the near future AI is going to
make your life much much better it's
going to extend your capabilities in
ways that will make you feel like a
superhero it's already happening AI is
being used to help doctors researchers
drivers Pilots writers artists
therapists musicians soldiers
entrepreneurs investors and many many
more I don't think people fully
understand how integrated narrow AI
already is doctors are going to be able
to detect and treat cancer earlier and
less invasively drugs will be tested
virtually massively speeding up
Effectiveness and time to market energy
costs are going to plummet and that will
create a Cambrian explosion in
life-saving and life improving
Technologies not the least of which will
be the proliferation of access to clean
water I assume you already know about
self-driving cars flying cars reduced
deaths from dangerous jobs and better
emergency response options it really
will be an endless cavalcade of Miracles
and that's why this fight is worth
fighting it's worth facing things head
on and doing this well it is going to be
amazing and terrifying but whether it
turns into a Utopia or a demon summoning
circle is going to be up to us even
though we will lose control of our child
far too soon as every parent knows if we
give AI a good foundation if we're
thoughtful about it and don't give in to
fatalism I think we can have just enough
influence to make this turning point in
history the moment when the rate of
progress tilts even stronger towards the
good just as a long Arc of History bends
towards Justice I believe the long Arc
of progress bends towards the good
especially if the bending is intentional
if you like this episode and you want to
learn more about how to get ahead with
AI be sure to watch this video AI is
going to obliterate your job and that's
fantastic news it's finally going to
free you up to make real money and push
your abilities farther than you've ever
taken them before if you don't panic
that is