Kind: captions
Language: en
the following is a conversation with
Elon Musk his third time on this The Lex
Friedman
podcast yeah make yourself
comfortable oh wow okay do you don't do
the headphones thing no okay I mean how
close do I get each to get this thing
the closer you are the sexier you sound
hey baby up Can't Get Enough Le you up
baby I'm going to clip that out anytime
somebody messages me
about body and you think I'm sexy come
right out and tell me
so so good okay serious mode activate
all right serious Mode come on you're
Russian you can be serious everyone see
us all the time in Russia yeah yeah
we'll get we'll get there we'll get
there yeah it's gotten
soft allow me to say that the SpaceX
launch of human beings to orbit on May
30th
2020 was seen by many as the first step
in a new era of human space
exploration these human space flight
missions were a Beacon of Hope to me and
to Millions over the past two years as
our world has been going through one of
the most difficult periods in recent
human history we saw we see the rise of
division fear cynicism and the loss of
common Humanity right when it is needed
most so first Elon let me say thank you
for giving the world hope hope and
reason to be excited about the future oh
it's kind of you to say I do want to do
that Humanity has uh obviously a lot of
issues and and uh you know people at
times do do bad things but you know
despite all that um you know I I love
humanity and I think we should
uh make sure we do everything we can to
have a good future and and an exciting
future and one where that maximizes the
happiness of the people let me ask about
uh crew Dragon demo 2 so that that first
flight with humans on board um how did
you feel leading up to that launch were
you scared were you excited was going
through your mind so much was at
stake yeah no that was extremely
stressful no question um we obviously
could not um let them down in any way um
so extremely stressful I'd say uh to say
the least but we did I was confident
that at the time that we launched that
no one could think of
anything uh at all to do that would
improve the probability of
success um and we we racked our brains
to think of any possible way to improve
the probability of success we canot
think of anything more and and nor could
NASA and
so that that's just the best that we
could do so then we we had we went ahead
and
launched now I'm not a religious person
um but I nonetheless got on my knees and
prayed for that
mission were you able to
sleep
no how did it feel when it was a success
first when the launch was a success and
when they returned back home or back to
Earth it was a great
relief yeah it it's for for high stress
situations I find it's it's not so much
Elation as relief
um and um you know I think once as as we
got more comfortable and proved out the
systems because you know we
really um you know you got to make sure
everything works um I was it was
definitely a lot more uh enjoyable with
the subsequent uh astronaut missions and
I thought the the inspiration mission
was was actually very inspiring um
inspiration for Mission um I I'd
encourage people to watch the
inspiration documentary on Netflix it's
actually really good um
and it really is I was actually inspired
by that um and I I I so that one I felt
I I was kind of able to enjoy the the
actual Mission and not just be super
stressed all the time so for people that
somehow don't know it's the all civilian
first time all civilian out to space out
to orbit yeah and it was the I think the
highest orbit that uh in like I don't
know 30 or 40 years or something the
only one that was higher was the one
shuttle sorry Hubble uh servicing
Mission um and then before that it would
have been um Apollo in
72 it's pretty wild so it's cool it's
you know I think uh as you know as a
species like we want to be you know
continuing to do better and and reach
Higher Ground and and like I think it
would be tragic extremely tragic if um
Apollo was the high watermark for
Humanity you know and that and that's as
far as we ever got um and it's um it's
concerning that here we are um 49 years
after the last mission to the moon and
so almost half a
century uh and we've not been back um
and that's that's worrying it's like is
that does that mean we've peaked as a
civilization or or what
so like I think we we got to get back to
the moon and build a base there you know
a science base I think we could learn a
lot about the nature of the universe if
we have a proper science base on the
moon um you know like we have a science
base in Antarctica and you know many
other parts of the world and um so that
that that's I think the next big thing
we've got to have like a a serious like
moon base um and then get people to Mars
and you know get get out there and be a
space faing civilization I'll ask you
about some of those details but since
you're so busy with the hard engineering
challenges of everything that's involved
are are you still able to Marvel at the
magic of it all of space travel of every
time the rocket goes up especially when
it's a crude Mission or you're just so
overwhelmed with the all the challenges
that you have to
solve and actually sort of to add to
that the reason I I wanted to ask this
question of May 30th it's it's been some
time so you can look back and think
about the impact already it's already at
the time it was an engineering problem
maybe now it's becoming a historic
moment like it's it's a moment that how
many moments will be remembered about
the 21st century to
me that or something like that maybe
inspiration for one of those would be
remembered as the early steps of a new
age of uh space
exploration yeah I mean during the
launches itself so I mean the thing I
think maybe some people know but a lot
of people don't know he like I'm
actually the chief engineer of SpaceX so
um the you know I've signed off on
pretty much all the design decisions um
and
you know so if there's something that
goes wrong with
that vehicle it's it's fundamentally my
fault you know so
um so I'm really just thinking about all
the things that like so so when I see
the rocket I see all the things that
could go wrong and the things that could
be better and the same with the dragon
spacecraft it's like other people will
see oh this is a a spacecraft or a
rocket and that's this looks really cool
I'm like i' I've like a readout of like
this is the these These are the risks
these are the pro problems that's what I
see
like so it's not what other people see
when they see the product you know so
let me uh ask you then to analyze
Starship in that same way I know you
have you'll talk about in more detail
about Starship in the near future
perhaps you we talk about it now if you
want um but just in that same way like
you said you see when you see a uh when
you see a rocket you see a sort of a
list of risks and that's same way you
said that Starship is a really hard
problem so there many ways I can ask
this but if you magically could solve
one problem perfectly one engineering
problem perfectly which one would it be
on Starship on on sorry on Starship so
is it maybe related to the efficiency
the uh the engine the weight of the
different components the complexity of
various things maybe the controls of the
the crazy thing has to do to land no
it's actually the by far the the biggest
thing absorbing my time is uh engine
production not not the design of the
engine the i i how I've often said
prototypes are are easy production is
hard
um so we have the most advanced rocket
engine that's ever been designed
um the cuz I say currently the best
rocket engine ever is probably the Rd
180 or Rd
170 um
that that the Russian engine basically
um and um and still I think an engine
should only count if it's gotten
something to orbit um so our engine has
not gotten anything to orbit yet um but
it is it's the first engine that's
actually better than than the the the
Russian R engines which were amazing
design so you're talking about Raptor
engine what makes it amazing what what
are the different aspects of it that
make it like what are you the most
excited about uh if the whole thing
works in terms of efficiency all those
kinds of things well it's bar raptor is
a a full flow uh staged combustion
um engine and it's at operating at a
very high chamber pressure so one of the
key figures mer perhaps the key figure
of Merit is um what is the chamber
pressure at which the engine can operate
that's the combustion chamber pressure
um so a Rapter is uh designed to operate
at 300 bar possibly maybe higher that's
300 atmospheres
so um the record right now for
operational engine is the Rd engine that
I mentioned the Russian Rd which is I
believe around
267 bar um and the the the difficulty of
the chamber pressure is increases on a
nonlinear basis so 10% more chamber
pressure is more like uh 50% more
difficult um but that that chamber
pressure is that that that is what
allows you to get a very high uh Power
density for uh for the engine um so uh
enabling
um a very high thrust to weight ratio um
and um a very high specific impulse so
specific impulse is like a measure of
the efficiency of a rocket engine or um
it's it's really the the the uh exhaust
the effect of exhaust velocity of of the
gas coming out of the engine
um so
uh with with a very high chamber
pressure you can have um a a compact
engine that nonetheless has a high
expansion ratio which is the ratio
between the uh um exit nozle and the uh
throat so you know engine's got like you
see rocket engine's got like sort of
like a like a hourglass shape it's like
a chamber and then it next down and
there's a nozzle and the ratio of the
the exit diameter to
the the throat expansion ratio so why is
it such a hard engine to manufacture at
scale uh it's very complex so a lot of
what do complexity mean here is a lot of
components involved there's a lot of a
lot of components and a lot of
uh unique materials that uh so we had to
invent a um several Alloys that don't
exist in order to make this engine
work um so a materials problem
too it's a materials problem and um in a
in a stage combustion full flow stage
combustion there there are many uh
feedback loops in the system so you uh
basically you've got uh propellent and
and and uh Hot Gas
flowing um simultaneously to so many
different places on the engine um and uh
they they all have a recursive effect on
each other so you change one thing here
it has a recursive effect here changes
something over there and and it's it's
it's it's quite hard to control um like
there's a reason no one's made this
before
um but um and the reason we're doing um
a stage
combustion full flow is is because it it
has the highest the highest uh
theoretical possible uh
efficiency um so in in order to make a
fully reusable rocket um which that's
the really the Holy Grail of orbital
rocketry
um you have to have everything's got to
be the best uh it's got to be the best
engine the vest airframe the vest heat
shield um extremely light uh
avionics um very you know very clever
control mechanisms um you've got to shed
mass in in any possible way that you can
um for example we are instead of putting
Landing legs on the booster and ship we
are going to catch them with a tower to
save the weight of the landing legs legs
so that's like I mean we're talking
about catching the largest flying object
ever
made uh with on a giant Tower with with
Chopstick arms it's like Cy kid with the
fly but much
bigger I mean pulling something like
this probably won't work the first
time uh anyway so this bananas this is
banana stuff so you mentioned that you
doubt well not you doubt but there
there's days or moments when you doubt
that this is even possible it's so
difficult
the possible part
is well at this point we'll I think we
we'll get Starship to work
um um there's a question of timing how
long will it take us to do this uh how
long will it take us to actually achieve
uh full and Rapid
reusability um because it will take
probably many launches before we are
able to have full and Rapid
reusability um but I can say that that
the physics pencils out like the like
we're not
uh like at this point I'd say we're
confident that that s like let's say I'm
very confident s success is in the set
of all possible
outcomes right it's not set of for for
for a while there I was not convinced
that success was in the set of possible
outcomes which is very important
actually but so
um um you're saying there's chance I'm
saying there's a chance exactly
um uh just not sure how how how long it
will take uh but we have a very very
talented team they're working night and
day to make it happen um and uh and like
like said the the the critical thing to
achieve for the revolution in space
flight and for Humanity to be a space
Frank civilization is to have a fully
and rapidly reusable rocket opal rocket
um there's not even been any op rocket
that's been fully useful ever and this
has always been the the the the Holy
Grail of rocketry um and uh many smart
people very smart people um have tried
to do this before and they've not
succeeded so um because it's such a hard
problem what's your source of belief in
situations like this when the
engineering problem is so difficult
there's a lot of experts many of whom
you admire who have failed in the past
yes
and um a lot of
people you know the a lot of experts
maybe journalists all the kind of you
know the public in general have a lot of
doubt about whether it's
possible and you yourself know that even
if it's a non-n set non-empty set of
success it's still unlikely or very
difficult like where do you go to both
personally um intellectually as an
engineer as a team like for source of
strength needed to sort of persevere
through this and to keep going with the
project take it to
completion a source of strength h i i
justes really not how I think about
things um I mean for me it's simply this
this is something that is important to
get done um and we we should just keep
doing it um or die trying and I I don't
need a source of strength so quitting is
not even like um that's not it's not in
my nature okay and I I don't care about
optimism or
pessimism fuck that we're going to get
it done GNA get it
done can you uh then Zoom back in to
specific problems with Starship or any
engineering problems you work on can you
try to introspect your particular
biological neural network your thinking
process and describe how you think
through problems through different
engineering and design problems is there
like a systematic process you've spoken
about first principles thinking but is
there kind of process to it well
um you like saying like like physics is
a law and everything else is a
recommendation um like I've met a lot of
people who can break the law but I
haven't met anyone who could break
physics so uh so first for you know any
kind of Technology problem you have to
sort of just make sure you're not
violating physics
um
and you know uh first principles
analysis I think is something that can
be applied to really any Walk of Life uh
any anything really it's just it's it's
really just saying um you know let's
let's boil something down to the most
fundamental uh principles the things
that we are most confident are true at a
foundational level and that sets your
your sets your axiomatic base and then
you reason up from there and then you
cross check your conclusion against the
the axiomatic
truths um
so um you know some basics in physics
would be like are you violating
conservation of energy or momentum or
something like that you know then you
it's not going to work um
so uh that's you know so that's just to
establish is is it is it possible and
then another good physics tool is
thinking about things in the limit if
you if you take a particular thing and
you uh scale it to a very large number
or to a very small number how does how
does things change um both like tempor
like in number of things you manufacture
or something like that and then in time
yeah like let's say say take an example
of like um like manufacturing which I
think is just a very underrated problem
um and
and uh like I said it's much harder
to take a an advanced technology product
and bring it into volume manufacturing
than it is to design it in the first
place my ERS magnitude so um so let's
say you're trying to figure out is um
like why is this this uh part or product
expensive is it um because of something
fundamentally foolish that we're doing
or is it because our volume is too low
and so then you say okay well what if
our volume was a million units a year is
it still expensive that's what I mean
like thinking about things in the limit
if it's still expensive at a million
units a year then volume is not the
reason why your thing is expensive
there's something fundamental about
design and then you then can focus on
the reducing complexity or something
like that in the design change the
design to change change the part to be
something that is
uh uh not fundamentally
expensive but but like that's a common
thing in tree cuz the the unit volume is
is relatively low and so a common excuse
would be well it's expensive because our
unit volume is low um and if we were in
like Automotive or something like that
or consumer electronics then our cost
would be lower I'm like I'm like okay so
let's say we SK now you're making a
million units a year is it still
expensive if the answer is yes then uh
economies of scale are not the issue do
you throw into manufacturing do you
throw like supply chain you talked about
resources and materials and stuff like
that throw that into the calculation of
trying to reason from first principles
like how we're going to make the supply
chain work here yeah yeah and then the
cost of materials things like that or is
that too much exactly so um like another
like a good example of thinking about
things uh in the limit is um if you take
any
uh you know any any product any machine
or whatever um like take a rocket or
whatever and
say um if you've got if if you look at
the raw raw materials in the rocket um
so you're going to have like uh I know
aluminum steel titanium
inconel uh special specialty Alloys um
copper and and you say what are the how
what what what's the weight of the
constituent elements of of each of these
elements and what is their raw material
value and that sets the ASM totic limit
for
how uh low the cost of the vehicle can
be unless you change the the materials
so and then when you do that I call it
like maybe the magic wand number or
something like that so that would be
like if you had the you know like just a
a pile of these raw materials here and
you could wave magic wand and rearrange
the atoms into the final shape um that
would be the lowest possible cost that
you could make this thing for unless you
change the materials so then and that is
always a US almost always a very low
number um so then the the what's
actually causing things to be expensive
is how you put the atoms into the
desired
shape yeah I actually if you don't mind
me taking a tiny tangent had uh I often
talk to Jim Keller who's somebody that
work with you as as a friend Jim was
yeah did great work at Tesla so um I
suppose he carries the flame of the same
kind of thinking that you're you're
talking about
now um and I I guess I see that same
thing at Tesla and and uh SpaceX folks
who work there they kind of learn this
way of thinking and it kind of becomes
obvious almost but anyway I had um
argument not
argument uh he educated me about how
cheap it might be to manufacture Tesla
bot we just we had an argument what is
how can you reduce the cost of scale of
producing a robot because so I gotten a
chance to interact quite a bit um
obviously in in the academic circles
with robots and then my bosson Dynamics
and stuff like that and they're very
expensive to to build and then uh Jim
kind of schooled me on saying like Okay
like this kind of first principal
thinking of how can we get the cost of
manufactur down um I suppose you do that
you have done uh that kind of thinking
for Tesla bot and for all kinds
of all kinds of complex systems that are
traditionally seen as complex and you
say okay how can we simplify everything
down yeah I I mean I think if you if you
are really good at
manufacturing you can basically make at
high volume you can basically make
anything for a
cost that ASM totically approaches the
raw raw material value of the
constituents plus any intellectual
property that you need to license
anything
right but it's hard it's not like that's
a very hard thing to do but but it is
possible for anything anything in volume
can be made of like I said for a
that ASM totically approaches as raw
material constituents plus intellectual
property license rights so what'll often
happen in trying to design a product is
is people start with the tools and and
parts and methods that they are familiar
with um and then and try to create a
product using their existing tools and
methods um the other way to think about
it is uh actually imagine the try to
imagine the platonic ideal of the
perfect product or technology whatever
it might be um and say what is this what
is the perfect arrangement of atoms that
would be the the best possible product
and now let us try to figure out how to
get the atoms in that
shape I mean it's it sounds
um uh it's almost like Rick a Morty
absurd until you start to really think
about it and it you really should think
about it in this way cuz everything else
is kind of uh
uh if if you think uh you you might fall
victim to the momentum of the way things
were done in the past unless you think
in this way well just as a function of
inertia people will uh want to use the
same tools and methods that they are
familiar with um they just that's what
they'll do by default yeah um and then
that that will lead to an outcome of
things that can be made with those tools
and methods but is unlikely to be the um
platonic ideal of the perfect product um
so then so that's why it's good to think
of things in both directions so like
what can we build with the tools that we
have but then but but also what is the
what is the perfect the theoretical
perfect product look like and and that
that theoretical perfect product is
going to be a moving Target because as
you learn more the definition of or for
that perfect product will will change
because you don't actually know what the
perfect product is but you can
successfully approximate uh a a a more
perfect product um so the thing about it
like that and then saying okay now what
tools methods materials whatever do we
need to create in order to get the atoms
in that
shape but people very rarely think about
it that way but it's a powerful tool I
should mention that the brilliant
Siobhan zillis is hanging hanging out
with us uh in case you hear a voice of
uh wisdom from uh from from outside from
up
above okay so let me ask you about Mars
you mentioned it would be great for
science to
put um a base on the moon to do some
research
but the truly big leap again in this
category of seemingly impossible is to
put a human being on Mars when do you
think SpaceX will land a human being on
Mars h
best case is about 5 years worst case 10
years what are the determining factors
would you say from an engineering
perspective or is that that not the
bottlenecks uh you know it's it's
fundamentally um you know engineering
the the the vehicle
um I mean Starship is the
most complex and advanced rocket that's
ever been made
by I don't know order of magnitude or
something like that it's a lot it's
really Next Level
so um and the fundamental optimization
of Starship is minimizing cost per ton
to over it and ultimately cost per ton
the surface of Mars um this may seem
like a mertile objective but it is
actually the thing that needs to be
optimized um like there is a certain
cost per ton to the surfice of Mars
where we can afford to establish a self-
sustaining uh city um and uh and then
above that we cannot afford to do it um
so right right now you couldn't fly to
Mars for a trillion dollars doesn't no
amount of money could get you a ticket
to Mars so we need to get that above uh
you know to get that like something that
is actually possible at all
um um but but then but that's that's we
don't we don't just want to have you
know with Mars flags and Footprints and
then not come back for a half century
like we did with the moon uh in order
to pass a very important great filter I
think we we need to be a multiplet
species
um that's sounds somewhat esoteric to to
a lot of people but uh like eventually
given enough time uh that something
the Earth is likely to experience some
Calamity um that could
be yeah something that humans do to
themselves or an external event like
happened to the dinosaurs um and um but
but you know
eventually and and if if n if none of
that happens and somehow magically we
keep going uh then the sun will the Sun
is gradually expanding um and will
engulf the Earth um and probably Earth
gets too hot for uh life in uh about 500
million years it's a long time but
that's only 10% longer than Earth has
been around and so if you think about
like
the the current situation is really
remarkable um and kind of hard to
believe
but uh Earth been around 4 and a half
billion years and this is the first time
in 4 and a half billion years that it's
been possible to extend life beyond
Earth and that window of opportunity may
be for a long time and I hope it is but
it also may be open for a short time and
we should uh I think it was wise for us
to
uh act quickly while the windows open
just in case it it closes yeah the
existence of nuclear weapons
pandemics all kinds of threats yeah
should uh should kind of um give us some
motivation I mean civilization could get
um
could die with a bang or a whimper you
know if it's a if it dies a demographic
collapse then it's more of a whimper
obviously um but and if it's World War
III it's more of a bang um but but these
are all risks um I mean it's important
to think of these things and just you
know think of things like probabilities
not certainties um there's a certain
probability that something bad will
happen at on Earth I like I think most
likely the future will be good um but
there's like let's say for AR M sake um
a 1% chance per Century of of a
civilization ending event like that was
Stephen Hawkings
estimate um I think he's he might be
right about that uh so
then
uh you know we should basically think of
this like being a multiplan species as
like taking out insurance for life
itself like life insurance for
life um W this turned into infomercial
real quick life insurance for Life yes
um and you know we can bring the the the
creatures from you know plants and
animals from Earth to Mars and breathe
life into the planet um and and have a
second planet with with life um that
would be great um they can't bring
themselves there you know so if we don't
bring them to Mars then they will just
for sure all die when the sun expands
anyway and then that'll be it what do
you think is the most difficult aspect
of building a civilization on Mars
terraforming Mars like from engineering
perspective from a financial perspective
human perspective to
get to get a large number of folks there
who will never return back to Earth uh
no they could certainly return some will
return back to Earth they will choose to
stay there for the rest of their lives
yeah many will
um but uh you know
we we need the space sh back like the
ones that go to Mar meet them back so
you can hop on if you want you know it's
like but we can't just not have the
spaceships come back those things are
expensive we need them back like to come
back and do another trip I mean do you
think about the terraforming aspect like
actually building you're so focused
right now on the spaceships part that's
so critical to get to it's just we
absolutely if you can't get there
nothing else matters yeah so and like
said you we can't get there with at some
extraordinarily high cost I mean the
current cost of um let's say one ton to
the surface of Mars is on the order of a
billion
dollars so because you don't just need
the rocket and the launch and everything
you need like heat shield you need you
know guidance system you need uh deep
space Communications uh you need some
kind of Landing system so like rough
approximation would be uh a billion
dollars per ton to the surface of Mars
right now um this is obviously
um way too expensive to create a
self-sustaining
civilization um so we need to improve
that
by at least a factor of a thousand a
million per ton yes ideally less much
less than a million ton but if it's not
like it's got to be you have to say like
what well how much can Society afford to
spend or want to just want to spend on a
self-sustaining City on Mars the self-
sustaining part is important like it's
just the the key
threshold um the the great filter will
will have been passed when the city and
Mars can survive even if the spaceships
from Earth stop coming for any reason
doesn't matter what the reason is but if
they stop coming for any reason will it
die out or will it not and if there's
even one critical ingredient missing
then it still doesn't count it's like
you know if you're on a long sea voyage
and you've got everything except vitamin
C it's only a matter of time you know
you're going to die so so we got to get
Mars a Mars City to the point where it's
self
sustaining um I'm not sure this will
really happen in my lifetime but I I
hope to see it at least have a lot of
momentum and and then you could say okay
what is the minimum tonnage necessary to
uh have a self-sustaining
city um and there's a lot of uncertainty
about this you could say like I don't
know it's probably at least a million
tons um because you have to set up a lot
of infrastructure on on Ms um like I
said you can't be missing any anything
that in order to be self- sustained you
can't be Miss like you need you know
semiconductor Fabs you need iron or
refineries like you need all lots of
things you know uh
so um and Mars is not super hospitable
it's it's the least inhospitable Planet
but it's definitely a fixer oper of a
planet outside of Earth yes Earth is
pretty good Earth is like easy yeah and
also I should we should clarify in the
solar system yes in the solar system
there might be nice like vacation spots
there might be some great planets out
there but it's h too hard to get there
yeah way way way way way too hard to say
the least let me push back on that not
really a push back but a quick uh
curveball of a question so you did
mention physics as the the first
starting point so
um general relativity allows for warm
holes uh they technically can exist do
you think um those can ever be leveraged
by humans to travel fast in the speed of
light
well are you the thing is is debatable
the we currently do not know of any
means of going faster than the speed of
light
um there there is
like
like there there are some ideas
about having space like so
so you can only move at the speed of
light through through space but
if you can make space itself
move that that that's like that that's
Waring
space um space is is capable of moving
faster than the speed of light right uh
like the universe in the Big Bang the
universe expanded at much much more than
the speed of light by a lot yeah um
so um but
the if this is possible the the amount
of energy required to Wolf space is
so gigantic it's boggles of mind so all
the work you've done with propulsion how
much Innovation is possible with rocket
propulsion is this um I mean you've seen
it all and you're constantly innovating
in every
aspect how much is possible like how
much can you get 10x somehow is there
something in there in physics that you
can get significant Improvement in terms
of efficiency of engines and all those
kinds of things well as I was saying
like the really the Grail is a a fully
and rapidly reusable orbital system um
so uh right now uh the falcon9 is the
only reusable rocket out there but it
but the the booster comes back and lands
you've seen the videos uh and we get the
nose coal fairing back but we do not get
the upper stage back
so uh that means that we have a minimum
cost of of building an upper stage um
you can think of like a two-stage rocket
of of sort of like two airplanes like a
big airplane and a smaller airplane um
and we get the big airplane back but not
the small airplane and so it still costs
a lot you know so that upper stage is
you know at least $10
million um and then the degree of the
booster is not as reuse is not as
rapidly and completely reusable as we'd
like in order of the fairings so you
know our kind of minimum marginal cost
our counting overhead for per flight is
on the order of 15 to $20 million maybe
um
so uh that's that's extremely good for
it's by far better than any rocket ever
in history um but uh with full and Rapid
reusability we can reduce the cost per T
to orbit by uh a factor of
100 just think of it like um like
imagine if you had an aircraft or
something or
a
car um and if you had to buy a new car
every time you went for a drive there
would be very expensive every silly
frankly but um but you in fact you just
refuel the car or recharge the car and
that's uh makes your
trip like I don't know a thousand times
cheaper so it's the same for Rockets uh
if
you very difficult to make this complex
machine that can go to all it and so if
you cannot reuse it and have have to
throw even any part of any significant
part of it away that massively increases
the cost
so you know Starship in theory could do
a cost per launch of like a million
maybe $2 million or something like that
um and uh and put over 100 tons in
orbit which is crazy yeah so that's
incredible so you're saying like it's uh
by by far the biggest bang for the buck
is to make it fully reusable versus like
some kind of brilliant breakthrough in
theoretical physics no no there's no
there's no bring break no there's no it
just got to make the rocket reusable
this is an extremely difficult
engineering problem got it uh but no no
new physics is
required just brilliant engineering let
me ask a slightly philosophical fun
question got to ask I know you're
focused on getting to Mars but once
we're there on Mars what do you what
form of government economic
system political system do you think
would work best for an early
civilization of humans is I mean the the
interesting reason to talk about this
stuff it also make helps people dream
about the future I know you're really
focused about the short-term engineering
dream but it's like I don't know there's
something about imagining an actual
civilization on Mars that gives people
really gives people hope well it would
be a new frontier and opportunity to
rethink the whole nature of government
uh just as was done in the creation of
the United States
so
uh I mean I would suggest
um having uh direct democracy like
people vote directly on things as
opposed to representative democracy so
uh representative democracy I think is
too uh subject to special interests
and you know a coercion of the
politicians and that kind of thing um so
I I'd recommend
uh that that there's
just um direct democracy people vote on
laws the population votes on laws
themselves and then the laws must be
short enough that people can understand
them yeah and then like keeping a
well-informed populace like really being
transparent about all the information
about what they're voting for absolute
transparency yeah and not make it as
annoying as those cies where you have to
accept accept cookies like always like
you know there's like always like a
slight amount of trepidation when you
click accept cookies like I I feel as
though there's like perhaps like a like
a very tiny chance that it'll open a
portal to hell or something like that
it's exactly how I feel why why do they
why do they keep wanting me to accept
what do they want with this
cookie like somebody got upset with
accepting cookies or something somewhere
who cares like so annoying to get keep
accepting all these cookies to me this
is just great trying accept yes you can
have my damn cookie I don't care
whatever you heard it from meon first he
accepts all of your damn cookies
yeah and stop asking me it's annoying
yeah it's uh it's one example of um
implementation of a good idea
done really horribly yeah it's it's
somebody who was like there's some good
intentions of like privacy or whatever
but now everyone just has to accept
cooking and it's not you know you have
billions of people who have to keep
clicking except cookie it's super
annoying then we just accept the damn
cookie it's fine there is like um I
think a fundamental problem that we're
because we've not really had a a
major uh like a world war or something
like that in a while and obviously we
would like to not have C Wars um there
there's not been a cleansing function
for rules and regulations um so wars did
have uh you know some sort of lining in
that there would be a a reset on rules
and regulations uh after a war um so
World Wars 1 and 2 there were huge
resets on rules and regulations um now
as if the society Society does not have
a war and there's no cleansing function
or garbage collection for rules and
regulations then rules and regulations
will accumulate every year because
they're Immortal there's no actual
humans die but the laws don't uh so the
we need a garbage collection function
for rules and regulations they should
not just be immortal um
because some of the rules and
regulations that are put in place will
be counterproductive done with good
intentions but counterproductive and
sometimes not done with good intentions
so um if you just if rules and
regulations just accumulate every year
um and you get more and more of them
then eventually you won't be able to do
anything you're just like guliver with
you know tied down by thousands of
little strings and we we see that in um
you
know us and like like basically
economies that uh have been around for
for a while uh and and regulators and
legislators create new rules and
regulations every year but they don't
put effort into removing them and I
think that's very important that we put
effort into removing rules and
regulations um but it gets tough because
you get special interests that then are
dependent on like they they have a you
know a uh vested interest in that
whatever Rule and Regulation and they
then they fight to not get it
removed um
yeah so it I mean I guess the problem
with the Constitution is it's it's kind
of like C versus Java cuz it doesn't
have any garbage collection built in I
think there should be I I when you first
said the the the metaphor of garbage
collection I love from coding standpoint
from the coding St yeah yeah I it would
be interesting if the laws themselves
kind of had a built-in thing where they
kind of die after a while unless
somebody explicitly publicly defends
them so that that's sort of it's not
like somebody has to kill them they kind
of die them themselves they disappear
yeah
um not to defend Java or anything but
you know the C++ you know you could also
have great garbage collection in Python
and so on yeah so yeah something's
something needs to happen or or just the
the civilization arteries arteries just
Harden over time and and uh you can just
get less and less done because there's
just a rule against everything um so so
I think like I don't know for Mars or
whatever I'd say or even for you know
obviously for Earth as well like I think
there should be an active process for
removing rules and regulations and
questioning their existence just um like
if we've got a function for creating
rules and regulations because rules and
regulations you can also think of it's
like they're like software or lines of
code for operating uh civilization
that's the rules and regulations um so
it's not we shouldn't have rules and
regulations but the you you have code
accumulation but no code removal um and
so it just gets to be become basically
archaic bloatware after a while um and
and it's just it makes it hard for
things to progress so I don't know maybe
Mars you'd have like an you know any
given law must have a sunset you know
and and and uh and require active voting
to keep restore to keep it up there you
know um and actually also say like and
these are just I don't know
recommendations or thoughts
um ultimately will be up to the people
on Mars to decide but I I think um it
should be easier to remove a law than to
add one because of the just to overcome
the inertia of laws so maybe it's like
uh for argument sake you need like say
60% vote to have a law take effect but
only a 40% vote to remove
it so let me be the guy you you posted a
meme on Twitter recently where there's
there there's like a a row of urals a
guy just walks all the way across sure
yeah and he tells you about
crypto list I mean that's happened to be
so many times I think maybe even
literally uh yeah do you think
technologically speaking there's any
room for ideas of smart contracts or so
on because you mentioned laws um that's
an interesting Implement use of things
like smart contracts to implement the
laws by which governments function
like something built on ethereum or
maybe a dogcoin that enables smart
contract somehow I don't I don't quite
understand this whole smart contract
thing um you
know I
mean so I'm too downtown down smart
contracts um that's a good
line I mean my general approach to any
kind of like deal or whatever is just
make sure there's Clarity of
understanding that's the most important
thing right um and and just keep any
kind of deal very very short and simple
plain language um and just make sure
everyone understands this is the deal
does everyone is it clear um and uh and
and what are the consequences if various
things don't happen um but usually deal
deals are um you know business deals or
whatever are way too long and complex
and overly lawyered and
pointlessly you mentioned that uh doge
is the people's coin
um and you said that you were literally
going SpaceX may consider literally
putting uh a do coin on the moon is is
this something you're still considering
uh Mars perhaps uh do you think there's
some chance we've talked about political
systems on Mars that uh Dogecoin is the
the official currency of Mars at some
point in the
future well I I think Mars itself will
need to have a different y because you
can't synchronize due to speed of light
or not easily um so it must be
completely Standalone from
Earth well yeah cuz the the Mars is at
closest approach it's four light minutes
away roughly and then at furthest
approach uh it's roughly 20 light
minutes away uh maybe a little more um
so you can't really have uh something
synchronizing you know if you got if if
you got a 20- minute speed of light
issue if it's got a 1 minute blockchain
uh it's not going to synchronize
properly um so Ms need would I don't
know if Ms would have a cryptocurrency
as a thing but probably seems likely um
but it would be some kind of localized
thing on Mars
um and you let the people
decide yeah
absolutely the future of Mars should be
up to the Martians um yeah so
um I mean I think the cryptocurrency
thing is an inter
approach
to reducing the
um error in the the database that is
called
money
um you know I think I have a pretty deep
understanding of the of what money
actually is on a practical day-to-day
basis because of PayPal
um you know I really really got in deep
there
um and right now the system actually for
practical purposes is is is really a
bunch of heterogeneous uh main frames
running old
cobal okay you mean literally that'sit
that literally what's happening in batch
mode okay in patch mode yeah pretty the
poor bastards who have to maintain that
code okay that's a as a pain that's pain
not even Fortran it's Cobalt yep that's
Cobalt like and they still the B banks
are still buying mainframes in 2021 and
running ancient Cobalt code uh and uh
you know the the Federal Reserve is like
probably even older than the what the
banks have and they have an old Cobalt
main
frame and so now and so the the
government effectively has editing
privileges on the on the money
database um and they use those editing
privileges to um make more money when if
they want and this increases the error
in the database that is money so if I
think money should really be viewed
through the lens of information Theory
and uh and so it's U you kind of like uh
like an internet connection like what's
the bandwidth uh you know to Total bit
rate uh what is the latency jutter uh
packet drop uh you know errors errors in
the network uh
communication just money like that
basically um I think that's probably
right way think of it and and then say
what what system uh from an information
Theory standpoint allows an economy to
function the best uh
and you know um Krypto is an attempt to
reduce the the error uh
in uh in money that is contributed by uh
government's uh diluting the money
supply as basically a pernicious
pernicious form of
taxation so both policy in terms of with
inflation and actual like technological
Cobalt like cryptocurrency takes us into
the 21st century in terms of the actual
systems that allow you to do the
transaction to store wealth all those
kinds of
things like I said just think of money
as information people um often will
think of money as having power in and of
itself um it does not money is uh is
infation
and it it does not have power in and of
itself uh like you applying the the
physics tools of thinking about things
in the limit is helpful if you are
stranded on a tropical island um and
uh you have a trillion dollars it's
useless because there's no there's no
resource allocation money is a database
for resource allocation but there's no
resource to allocate except for yourself
so money is useless
um uh if you're tring on desert island
with no food you uh all the Bitcoin in
the world
will not stop you from starving yeah so
um so like I just just think of money as
as
a database for resource allocation um
across time and
space and um and then what what what
system uh is what what in what form
should that that database or data
system what what what would be most
effective now there's a there is a
fundamental issue with um say Bitcoin in
its current
form uh in that it's the transaction
volume is very
limited um and uh the latency it's the
the latency for for a properly confirmed
transaction is to is too long much
longer than you'd like so it's not it's
actually not great from um transaction
volume standpoint or latency standpoint
um uh so it is perhaps useful as as to
to solve an aspect of the money database
problem uh which is a sort of store of
wealth or an an accounting of relative
obligations I suppose um but it is not
useful as a currency as a day-to-day
currency but people have proposed
different technological
solutions yeah lightning Network and the
layer two technologies on top of that I
mean it's it's all it seems to be all
kind of a trade-off but the point is
it's kind of brilliant to say that just
think about it information think about
what kind of database what kind of
infrastructure enables that exchange
like you're operating an economy um and
you need to have some thing that it uh
allows for the efficient to to to have
efficient uh value ratios between
products and services so you got this
massive number of products and services
and you need to you can't just bar
barter just like that would be extremely
unwieldy uh so you need something that
gives you the
the a a ra ratio of exchange between
goods and services um and and then
something that allows you to uh shift
obligations across time like de debt and
Equity shift obligations across time
then what does what what does the best
job of that um part of reason why I
think there some um Merit Dogecoin even
though it was obviously created as a
joke um is that it it actually does have
a much higher uh transaction volume
capability than Bitcoin um and the you
know the the cost of doing a transaction
the the the Dogecoin fee is is very low
like right now if you want to do a
Bitcoin transaction the price of doing
that transaction is very high so you
could not use it effectively for most
things um and nor could it even scale to
a high volume
um
uh and when Bitcoin was you know started
I guess around 2008 or something like
that um the internet connections were
much worse than the rday like order of
magnitude I mean there's the way way
worse you know to in 2008 so so like
having us you know a small uh block size
or whatever is you know and a long
synchronization time is made sense in
2008 but to you know 2021 or fast
forward 10 years it's like it's it's
like economically low you know it's uh
so
um and I think there's some value to
having a linear increase in the amount
of currency that uh is generated um so
because some amount of the currency like
like if if if a if a currency is too
deflationary or or like uh or should say
if if if a if a currency is expected to
increase in value over time there's
reluctance to spend it because you're
like oh I if I I'll just hold it not
spend it because it's scarcity is
increasing with time so if I spend it
now then I will regret spending it so I
will just you know hle it MH um but if
there's some dilution of the currency
occurring over time that's that's more
of an incentive to use it as a currency
so um those coin somewhat randomly has
uh a um just a fixed a number of of sort
of coins or hash strings that uh are
generated every year so this there some
inflation but it's not a percentage base
it's it's so that the it's a fixed
number so the percentage of inflation
will necessarily decline over time
um so just I I'm not saying that it's
like the ideal system for a currency but
I think it actually is uh just
fundamentally better than anything else
I've seen just by
accident um so I like how you said um
around 2008 so you're not uh you know
some people suggested you might be
Sat