Transcript
owGn_BS--Hs • Daniel Kahneman: How Hard is Autonomous Driving? | AI Podcast Clips
/home/itcorpmy/itcorp.my.id/harry/yt_channel/out/lexfridman/.shards/text-0001.zst#text/0289_owGn_BS--Hs.txt
Kind: captions Language: en is it seems that almost every robot human collaboration system is a lot harder than people realize so do you think it's possible for robots and humans to collaborate successfully if we talked a little bit about semi autonomous vehicles like in the Tesla autopilot but just in tasks in general if you think we talked about current you'll know where it's being kind of system one do you think those same systems can borrow humans for system to type tasks and collaborate successfully well I think that in any system where humans and the Machine interact that the human would be superfluous within a fairly short time and that is if the machine is advanced enough so that it can really help the human then it may not need the human for a long time now it would be very interesting if if there are problems that for some reason the machine doesn't cannot so but that people could solve then you would have to build into the machine and ability to recognize that it is in that kind of problematic situation and and to call the human that that cannot be easy without understanding that is it's it must be very difficult to to program a recognition that you are in a problematic situation without understanding the problem but that's very true in order to understand the full scope of situations that are problematic you almost need to be smart enough to solve all those problems it's not clear to me how much the machine will need the human I think the example of chess is very instructive I mean there was a time at which Kasparov was saying that human machine combinations will beat everybody even stockfish doesn't need people yeah and alpha zero certainly doesn't need people the question is just like you said how many problems are like chess and how many problems are the ones where are not like chess where well every problem probably in the end is like chess the question is how long is that transition period I mean you know that that's a question I would ask you in terms of main autonomous vehicle just driving is probably a lot more complicated than go to solve that yes and that's surprising because it's open no I mean you know I couldn't that's not surprising to me because the because that there is a hierarchical aspect to this which is recognizing a situation and then within the situation bringing bringing up the relevant knowledge and and for that hierarchical type of system to work you need a more complicated system than we currently have a lot of people think because as human beings this is probably the the cognitive biases they think of driving is pretty simple because they think of their own experience this is actually a big problem for a AI researchers or people thinking about AI because they evaluate how hard a particular problem is based on very limited knowledge basically and how hard it is for them to do the task yeah and then they take for granted I mean maybe you can speak to that because most people tell me driving is trivial and and humans in fact are terrible at driving is what people tell me and I see humans and humans are actually incredible at driving and driving is really terribly difficult yeah so is that just another element of the effects that you've described in your work on the psychology side oh no I mean I haven't really you know I would say that my research has contributed nothing to understanding the ecology into Anas in the structure of situations and the complexity of problems so all all we know is very clear that let go it's endlessly complicated but it's very constrained so and and in the real world there are far fewer constraints and and many more potential surprises so so that's obviously because it's not always obvious to people right so when you think about well I mean you know people thought that reasoning was hard and perceiving was easy but you know they quickly learned that actually modeling vision was tremendously complicated and modeling even proving theorems was relatively straightforward to push back in and out a little bit on the quickly part they haven't took several decades to learn that and most people still haven't learned that I mean our intuition of course AI researchers have but you drift a little bit outside the specific AI feel there the intuition is still perceptible yes all no I mean that's true I mean the intuitions the intuitions of the public haven't changed radically and they are there as you said they're evaluating the complexity of problems by how difficult it is for them to solve the problems and that's got very little to do with the complexities of solving them in AI you