Kind: captions
Language: en
let me talk about if we could about AI a
little bit
so if Bridgewater associates manage
about 160 billion dollars in assets and
our artificial intelligence systems
algorithms are pretty good with data
what role in the future DC AI play in
analysis and decision making in this
kind of data rich an impactful area of
investment I'm gonna answer that not
only an investment but I give them more
all encompassing rule for AI as I think
you know for the last 25 years we have
taken our thinking and put them in
algorithms and so we make decisions that
the computer takes those criteria
algorithms and they put them and they're
in there and it takes data and they
operate as an independent decision-maker
power in parallel with our
decision-making so for me it's like
there's a chess game playing and on
person with my chess game and I'm saying
it made that move and I'm making the
move and how do I compare those two
moves so we've done a lot but let me
give you an oral if the future can be
different from the past and you don't
have deep understanding you should not
rely on AI okay those two things deep
understanding of the cause-effect
relationships that are leading you to
place that bet in anything okay anything
important let's say if it was do
surgeries and you would say how do I do
surgeries I think it's totally fine to
watch all the doctors do the surgeries
you can put it on I take a a digital
camera and do that convert that into AI
algorithms that go to robots and have
them do surgeries and I'd be comfortable
with that
because if it'll do that if the keeps
doing the same thing over and over again
and you have enough of that that would
be fine even though you may not
understand the algorithms because you're
if the things happening over and over
again and you're not asking the future
would be the same that appendicitis or
whatever it is will be handled the same
way the surgery that's fine however what
happens with AI is for the most part is
it takes a lot of data and it with a
high enough sample size and then it puts
together its own algorithms okay there
are two ways you can come up with
algorithms you can either take your
thinking and express them in algorithms
or you can say let put the data in and
say what is the algorithm when you
that's machine learning yeah and when
you have machine learning it'll give you
equations which quite often are not
understandable if you would try to say
okay now describe what it's telling you
it's very difficult to describe and so
they can escape understanding and so
it's very good for doing those things
that could be done over and over again
if you're watching and you're not taking
that but if the future is different from
the past and you have that then you're
if the future is different from the past
and you don't have deep understanding
you're gonna get in trouble
and so that's the main thing as far as
AI is concerned AI and I'd say computer
replications of thinking very ways I
think it's particularly good for
processing but but the the notion of
what you want to do is better most of
the time determined by the human mind
that what are the principles like okay
how should I raise my children it's
gonna be a long time before AI you're
going to say it has a good enough
judgment to do that who should I marry
on all of those things maybe you can get
the computer to help you but if you just
took data and you have machine learning
it's not going to find it if you were to
then take one of my criteria for any of
those questions and then say put them
into an algorithm and you
a lot better off than if you took AI to
do it but by and large the mind should
be do used for inventing and those
creative things and then the computer
should be used for processing because it
could process a lot more information a
lot faster a lot more accurately and a
lot less emotionally so any notion of
thinking in the form of processing type
thinking should be done by a computer
and anything that is in the notion of
doing that other type of thinking should
be operating with with the brain in
operating in a way where you know you
can say ah that makes sense you know the
process of reducing your understanding
down to principles is kind of like the
process the the first one you mentioned
a type of AI algorithm where you are
encoding your expertise you're trying to
program write a program the human is
trying to write a program how do you
think that's attainable the process of
reducing principles to a computer
program or when you when you say when
you write about when you think of all
principles is there still a human
element that's not reducible to an
algorithm my experience has been that
almost all things including those things
that I thought were pretty much
impossible to express I've been able to
express in algorithms but that doesn't
constitute all things so you can cut you
can who you can express far more than
you can imagine you'll be able to
express so I use the example of okay
it's not how do you raise your children
okay you will be able to take it one
piece by piece okay how at what age what
school and the way to do that and that
my experience is to take that and when
you're in the moment of making a
decision or just past
making a decision to take the time and
to write down your criteria for making
that decision in words okay that that
way you'll get your price your
principles down on paper I created an
app online call it's right now just on
the iPhone it'll be and try getting an
Android a mile
it'll be an Android it'll be in a few
months it'll be on an awesome but it has
an app in there that helps people write
down their own principles because this
is very powerful so when you're in that
moment where you've just you're thinking
about it and you're thinking your
criteria for you know choosing the
school for your child or whatever that
might be and you write down your
criteria or whatever they are those
principles you write down and you you
that will at that moment make you
articulate your principles in a very
valuable way and if you have the way
that we operate that you have easy
access so then the next time that comes
along you can go to that or you can show
those principles to others to see if
they're the right principles you will
get a clarity of that principle that's
really invaluable in words and that'll
help you a lot then but then you start
to think how do i express that in data
and it'll shock you about how you can do
that you'll you'll form an equation that
will show the relationship between these
particular parts and then the
essentially the variables that are going
to go into that particular equation and
you will be able to do that and you take
that little piece and you put it into
the computer and then take the next
little piece and you put that into the
computer and before you know it you will
have a decision making system that's of
the sort that I'm describing so that
you're almost making an argument against
the last an earlier statement you've
made and you're convinced to me at first
you said there's no way a computer could
raise a child essentially but now you've
described in making me think of it if
you have that kind of idea
meritocracy you have this rigorous
approach at Bridgewater takes an
investment and apply it to raising a
child it feels like through the process
each is described we could as a society
arrive at a set of principles for
raising a child and encoded into
computer that originality will not come
from machine learning the first time you
do so that the original yes that's what
I'm referring to but eventually as we
together develop it and then we can
automate it that's why I'm saying the
processing yes can be done by the
computer so we're saying the same thing
we're not inconsistent and we're saying
the same thing that the processing of
that information in those algorithms can
be done by the computer in a very very
effective way you don't need to sit
there in process and try to weigh all
those things in your equation and all
those things but that notion of ok how
do I get at that principle and you're
saying you'd be surprised yes you how
much you can express that's right you
can do that so this is where I think
you're going to see the future and right
now we you know go to our devices and we
get information to a large extent and
then we get some guidance we have our
GPS and the like in my opinion
principles principles principles
principles I want to emphasize that you
write them down you've got those
principles they will be converted into
algorithms for decision making and
they're going to also have the benefit
of collective decision making because
right now individuals based on what
stuck in their heads are making their
decisions in very ignorant ways they're
not the best decision makers they're not
the best criteria and they're operating
when those principles are written down
and converted into algorithms it's
almost like you'll look at that and
follow the instructions and it'll give
you better results medic medicine will
be much more like this you can go to
your local doctor and you could ask his
point of view and whatever and he's
rushed
and he may not be the best doctor around
and you're gonna go to this thing and
get that same information or just
automatically have it input in that and
it's gonna tell you okay here's what you
should go do and it's gonna be much
better than your local doctor and that
that the converting of information into
intelligence okay intelligence is the
thing we're coming out with again I'm 70
and I want to pass all these things
along so all these tools that I've found
that need to develop all over these
periods of time all those things I want
to make an available and what's going to
happen as you there they're going to see
this they're going to see these tools
operating much more that way the idea of
converting data into intelligence
intelligence for example on what they
are like what are your strengths and
weaknesses intelligence on who do I work
well with under what circumstance
analyze intelligence we're going to go
from what are called systems of record
which are a lot of ok information
organized in the right way to
intelligence and we're going to that
that'll be the next big move in my
opinion and so you will get intelligence
back and that that intelligence comes
from reducing things down to principles
in to that's how what happens
you