Kind: captions
Language: en
so Ray doio takes a very economic view
of the world and he's like oh hey by the
way what he calls the big cycle is so
predictable that he broke it down into
six
phases and every Empire has gone through
these six phases they last for roughly
like 100 to 150 years America's
basically at the end of the 100e cycle
um and phase six is total collapse War
basically and the old world order falls
apart there's usually a violent war and
then a new world order is established
and we are like clockwork on the cycle
from a money perspective from a division
perspective like everything just lines
up so you have to have an internal
populace that is divided uh you need to
get yourself over your skis from a debt
perspective which we've done you have to
start printing money like crazy and
there has to be a new superpower on the
rise like it's the the stage is set and
the stage was set in World War II which
is how we became the dominant power to
your point about waking a sleeping
Dragon sleeping Dragon woke up but now
uh we're in trouble so that's my overly
simplistic view of why this worked it
was sort of a fluke uh not a fluke but
it was we we hit the cycle at just the
right moment when the British Empire
collapsed at the end of World War II um
because of our geography we weren't
destroyed by bombs so we come out of the
war pretty much unscathed so we ramp up
all of our production capabilities we
absolutely um crush it we help win we
create the nuclear bomb like just a lot
of things come together and so then
we're established as the world Reserve
currency um because it's not like we
weren't divided before then but we got
to really
enjoy uh a hot minute of prosperity does
that seem like the right breakdown of
why we could over come our differences
previously and now we can't like how do
you yeah I don't think it's wrong I
don't think it's wrong at all I think
that it's interesting to me because it
sounds like Ray doio one of the reasons
you respect him so much is because his
analysis is based in economics and he
he's put his money where his mouth is
economics and economists have long been
viewed as the true predictors of future
Prosperity at CIA we lean heavily into
economic studies economic experts
economic Anis the the law of Economics
because the law of Economics is that of
the law of
scarcity one of the first and most
underrated economists out there was
actually a Soviet Economist a guy named
Krav Krav created what's known as the
krati of wave the K krati of cycle that
cycle essentially puts us uh it explains
the pattern of uh Interstate conflict or
intrastate conflict where where
countries compete actually go to war
with each other and it and it puts it on
about a 25e cycle 25 years to a peak in
Conflict 25 years to A A Drop In
conflict and then as the wave continues
like most waves the actual uh peak of
the Waves expands so it goes from being
25 years to 25 years to then 32 years to
32 years and you start to see this
longer slower wave right but it's still
a wave it's still a wave form the next
peak of conflict according to Krav wave
against the United States's point of
view happens in about 2024 2025 oh great
so we now have multiple economists
basically saying that there's a peak
coming a peak of conflict coming and
that Conflict for the kraia wave is a
peak of popular conflict and unpopular
conflict so we're coming off of an
unpopular conflict right Afghanistan and
and Iraq largely turned into an
unpopular Conflict at the end right and
the wave between when that started and
when the next wave is coming is right in
that 25e Mark right so according to Krav
we are very we are not only coming up on
a period of conflict but it will be
popular inside the United States so
people will rally behind that conflict
that doesn't mean we're going to win
that doesn't necessarily mean it's going
to be in our best interest but it does
mean to your point earlier that we might
see that moment where everybody kind of
comes together
again I think part of the reason that we
were able to be successful was because
of the same rules of Economics that you
laid out from World War II our
country hugely unpopular western
expansion was hugely unpopular at the
time the Civil War nobody wants to see
the Civil War again most people would
say the Civil War was a traumatic and
horrible you know loss of life at the
time there was no other option Abraham
Lincoln had no option except to pursue
Civil War because he knew that the
presidents before him had been working
to create a single solitary nation that
had National Security from coast to
coast we can say it was a fight for
State's rights we can say it was a fight
for slavery we can say it was a fight
for lots of things and those are also
true but they may not be the number one
reason while the CI why the Civil War
was so important the Civil War was so
important because we needed to remain
one unified country from coast to coast
to have American Primacy in the long run
American Primacy is concept that was
created by Alexander Hamilton really
American privacy is not new there's an
entire Society out there called the
Alexander Hamilton Society that's
focused on pres on preserving the ideals
of Alexander Hamilton and the founding
fathers who all believed that a strong
United States meant a strong world
because they saw and lived through the
oppression of living under a monarchy
right if you look at the top five
wealthiest countries in the world right
now the top five wealthiest countries in
the world
two of them are democracies the other
three are monarchies right so the idea
that democracy is the solution to all
wealth and success hasn't really been
proven yet we're still outnumbered by
monarchies right so what does the future
hold the future will be DET will be
conflict is coming multiple economists
have pointed to it you can see the
writing on the wall what my wife and I
call the writing on the wall conflict is
coming what will that conflict look like
is the bigger question you talked
earlier about how you know you and I
might be of the same ilk when it comes
to are we already engaged in World War
III is World War III coming up what will
that world war look like there is
conflict coming there is no reason for
us to think it will look like it looked
in World War II if anything conflict has
proven to us that it evolves and changes
just like technology and just like human
thinking right but it's still
predictable because it takes human
beings to wage war
I don't think I'm answering your
question very well here but these are
all this is where my brain goes stage so
my question is do you see this uh as a a
conflict with China does it become open
Warfare is this going to be over Taiwan
like or the Russia Ukraine thing spills
over into something how do you see this
playing out so my honest my honest
anticipation what I expect will happen
is that China will make a legal move on
Taiwan what China did in Hong Kong was
legal first they changed the laws in
Hong Kong they changed the laws in China
which then changed the laws in Hong Kong
which made it legal for them to go in
and and take Hong Kong by force in 2019
right before Co hit the whole world
watched and it happened and the whole
world complained and threw a fit and
leveraged sanctions and said it was
unfair and unjust and everything else
and then the Chinese did it anyways and
now here it is 2023 and most people
don't even remember what happened in
Hong Kong just 4 years ago now they're
watching what's happening in Ukraine now
in
Ukraine some people say that what
happened in Ukraine is that the world
rallied behind Ukraine by giving them
weapons and giving them training and
giving them resources the most limited
resource in Ukraine is Ukrainian
soldiers it's not tanks or guns or
howitzers the thing that will run out
first is Ukrainian Fighters that's like
it's been it's it's a shame to me to
watch what's happening because the
Ukrainian fighting force is putting up
such a valiant fight they're doing
everything they possibly can to equip
every war fighter to be worth 10 20 30
50 Russian Fighters right but that's
their most limited resource they're not
going to be able to create more Russian
fighters in the next three to five years
you just can't you can't turn a
5-year-old into an 18-year-old so the
that's the resource that's the the clock
that zilinsky knows he's fighting
against he's racing against is not a
clock of fighter jets or or missile
defense systems it's how am I going to
find enough Fighters and NATO and the
West know that they don't want to put
their boots in Ukraine fighting the
Russians because that's all it would
take for the Russians to basically say
hey NATO allies are killing Russians so
now Russia can kill NATO allies and
because Russia is a nuclear power they
essentially have the same P like the
same Trump card that we had in World War
II so nobody in NATO wants to mess with
that trump card because when you have an
animal cornered yeah it does amazing
things right so what I see happening is
China will make a legal move on Taiwan
what legal play do they have with Taiwan
though they they have a number of legal
plays first of all do you know what the
American official American stance is on
Taiwan it's something like um we're
we're not going to do anything but don't
like touch them it's so like bizar vague
yeah it's called The One China two
systems policy essentially in the eyes
of American policy Taiwan already
belongs to China
interesting so then China also has
acknowledged with Taiwan you have your
own system but you're still part of the
mother country this is Hong Kong 2.0
Hong Kong 2.0 and over the stretch of
like what is it 80 miles from coast to
coast between between Southeastern China
and Taiwan so
it's it's sticky man if if China makes a
legislative move that basically forces
the Taiwanese system to then say you are
now communist right they could have the
Legal Foundation to do that and then a
legal attack is very similar to what
they did in Hong Kong that goes to court
systems that doesn't go to bullets right
and then when the legal system starts to
go in their best interest or in their
favor now China has legal grounds to
basically have Chinese police officers
enforce Chinese law inside Taiwan this
whole process what the hell is the
United States going to do there's no
missiles there's no guns you can drive
through the straights all you want it's
a legal issue it's not a military issue
so I anticipate China making a legal
move on Taiwan that will be supported by
key members in the UN why because how
many of the bricks are in the the the
leading countries in the UN all of them
right if you look at the Ukrainian
conflict now the news media
oversimplifies everything so media says
that the UN passes resolutions that
condemn Russia that's true and the U and
the UN passes resolutions with a large
majority 140 countries you know condemn
Russia that is also true what they're
not telling you is that the countries
who are not condemning Russia are the
largest wealthiest countries in the UN
China is not condemning Russia South
Africa is not condemning Russia India is
not condemning Russia right even inside
NATO you have Belgium and Hungary who
are not condemning Russia really so even
NATO is not unified on this whoa right
China's seeing all of this and China
seeing it for what it really is not for
what American Media is telling the
American people it is the American Media
isn't they're not trying to you know
they're not trying to lead us astray
they're just trying to run a business
they're trying to get people to read
their newspaper click their links see
their ads so that they can have they can
pay their employees the next pay cycle
it's all media is trying to do it's not
trying to lead us down the wrong path so
once there's an administrative Takeover
in Taiwan China has all the rules that
it like all the cover it needs to
basically just shipping to start
shipping National Guard troops uh police
officers even military units over to
Taiwan and now Taiwan belongs to China
in a bloodless War very similar to the
bloodless coups that we've seen multiple
times in places like Thailand or all
over southeast Asia right that's how I
see it happening and I see it largely
happening in the lead to the 2024
election because China is going to
benefit from a very confused American
base will be Peak division during Peak
Division and an electoral cycle wow
that's so distressing because that feels
very
plausible uh okay so we have a lot of
business interests there so what will
our reaction be cuz my first thought was
our reaction will be oh maybe that's the
best way for this to happen we can be
like ah we don't have to go and commit
our American lives to it uh they did it
just like Taiwan or sorry just like Hong
Kong where we'll you know rant and Rave
and say this is a problem and how dare
you and sanctions But ultimately be glad
that we're not sending people to die but
do we have enough business interest
there that especially in in you know
sensitive areas like chip manufacturing
where we can't let it go our business
interests with China are significantly
bigger than our business interests with
Taiwan wow Taiwan has the market
cornered on semiconductors but that's
not just for the United States they have
the market they have like 98% of the
market share damn in semiconductor
manufacturing who designs the
semiconductors we do we have all the IP
they just have the plants that's why one
of the big initiatives in Biden's chip
Act is to actually bring uh T tsmc tmsc
I forget the name of the country or I
forget the name of the company the main
manufacturer in thawan to actually bring
them to the United States so they're
trying to build manufacturing plants for
the Taiwanese company here in the
flyover states in the United States so
that we can just bring that tool God
this is going to be a fascinating 10 to
20 year period absolutely you just
nailed it right there it is going to be
a fascinating decade to two decades in
the future so that's what I want to
focus on that's what I encourage my
clients to focus on it's not about what
happens now or in the next two years
it's about what are you going to do so
that your family your business your
financial Legacy your individual Legacy
is
safeguarded for what the world could
look like 10 to 20 years from now the
the world could look like the United
States is still the economic and
Military superpower it could look like
that so you may not have to change much
but according to economists by 2033
China will be the economic superpower
that's not far away if we print money
like crazy then we could not go to zero
but like every other superpower before
us you you really get knocked for six it
is not a minor thing that happens right
and then you lose your ability to print
your way out of things which then you go
into
austerity now you look like England post
World War II which hey England's amazing
but they definitely had some rough years
and they're certainly not the global
super power that we are now but I've
sort of always imagined us falling into
the number two position where we still
maintain some real might uh that we have
massive influence in other parts of the
world that there will almost certainly
be Parts like Europe and look they're an
economic mess but Parts like Europe that
are going to be far more aligned most
likely certainly culturally with America
than they would be with China and so you
get sort of a more like cold warry Vibe
where America's Russia was a huge player
for anybody that's too young to remember
Russia was a beast when I was a kid now
we didn't know that it was a bit of a
paper Tiger but like they
really uh they mattered on the global
stage and I imagine will still matter I
think you're asking yourself the right
questions
right what knowing that humans are
laughably
predictable if China becomes the next
Global superpower what is the laughably
predictable thing that would happen next
M right the most predictable outcome is
that China would take the number one
spot we would fall to the number two
spot who's always everyone's
Target the guy in the lead so right now
the world is Unified that the United
States is Enemy Number One even if
they're our allies we're still Enemy
Number One you think NATO likes the
United States no France and Germany have
both come out to say that they don't
want the United States in NATO anymore
what absolutely the chancellor of
Germany has said he wants Germany to
have the largest army in Europe
specifically so that they can't be
bossed around anymore by the United
States because everybody's
over-dependent on the United States
military right the president of France
early in the invasion with Ukraine shut
Biden down and said you are actually you
are exacerbating this conflict with the
rhetoric that you're spitting in Poland
and the United States when you don't
even have the United States isn't even
within the firing range of Russia right
right so France and Germany have had
something to say Biden has been so
successful with his policy in in Poland
because Poland has long had history uh
against Russia so it's a natural like
it's a natural way in Poland already
hates Russia and Poland will take any
help it can get from anybody in NATO and
so the United States comes in and says
hey we'll help you Poland will back you
up and Poland backs the United States up
but Canada and France and Russia and
Germany and the UK they have a very
different story there w we we have to
talk about France so I was scandalized
in my research to hear you say that when
you think about like the most
hardcore uh intelligence agencies that
France of all places is like brutal the
DSG dgs D yep uh what's their stick why
France so there's a couple reasons why
France um so one of the biggest reasons
why France is because in the late 90s
the United States CIA was caught spying
on the French government just like in
the early 2010s we were caught cat we
were caught spying on the German
government right unlike Germany France
holds a grudge so is France not spying
on us of course they are yeah yeah yeah
of course they are so but it's like we
got caught and so now they get to be mad
no it's more like something changed
prior to the '90s prior to the late 9s
France wasn't so interested in the
United States they were interested in
direct threats to France well now in the
late 9s there's this giant flap inside
France and now France is like [ __ ] the
Americans right so they start to
dedicate resources to building up an
intelligence service and a skill set
that makes sure that they will never be
penetrated by the Americans again right
the dgse becomes one of the and Still
Remains one of the best funded most
technically capable intelligence
services in the
world why does French why does France
have enough money to put all of their
resources into their intelligence
operations because guess what they don't
have to worry about military industrial
complex because they're part of NATO and
the United States wants to keep sending
weapons and troops into the European
countries so the United States has
basically bought its influence in NATO
by forcing Europe to prioritize or
giving Europe the opportunity to
prioritize
economic growth in other avenues besides
military Industrial Development that's
why most of the militaries in Europe are
very weak and very small now there are
some that are modernized which is why
everybody's so excited about Sweden and
Finland coming into NATO but most other
countries are outdated and underfunded
they don't need to be funded because if
something happens in Poland Article Five
of the NATO alliance means that the
United States military is going to come
save the day so they're okay with that
and of course the United States is okay
with that too because it means there's
never going to be a military competitor
in Northern in the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization as a result what does get
to happen is those countries can take
all the money that they would spend on
military defense and and channel it into
intelligence operations now when they
Channel it into intelligence operations
against China North Korea Iran terrorism
they share that information back and
forth with the United States selectively
and they build that Alliance but they
also spend those resources spying
against the United States so funny and
because France specifically is so
well-funded and holds a grudge and is so
Adept specifically at targeting
Americans they have made a huge impact
in the space of Economic and Industrial
Espionage against the United States
there there are if you talk to an
intelligence professional like I'm sure
you have friends in your network and
you're like hey is France really that
big a deal you will hear the same thing
over and over again [ __ ] France wow you
will hear those two words from every
intelligence professional out there
because we have all been bested at some
point in time by the dgse they either
stumbled into one of our cases they
false flagged and pretended to be CIA
and recruited an asset from underneath
us or who knows what right but they know
how to Target Americans whoa and nobody
knows they even exist it's the perfect
kind of clandestine operation nobody
even knows the threat is there we live
in a rapidly changing often chaotic
world and there's so much breaking news
that it's honestly hard to keep track of
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or click the link below the way way that
information Warfare works leveraging the
human animal against itself I am waking
up to a reality that I've been so
focused in my life on my businesses and
my loves and passions and my wife oh my
God that I just I I've totally I'm
totally blind all this and that I have
an outdated Vision like I think of
France from the 80s and 90s when I was a
kid and like them put their hands up
they don't even fight back 100% And so
my vision I'm sure on a lot of these
countries is really skewed in terms of
what they actually think about us cuz I
remember um there was a lot of that
grumbling when the World Trade Center
first not not 911 but in the 90s when
they first bombed it where it was like
uh there are people in the world that
hate Americans I was like say what like
I had completely you know my own sort of
ins slated vision of America and just we
export culture and America's so great
and who wouldn't love democracy yeah
that was the first time where I was like
whoa wait a second like people don't
actually want this and that is so in
recent years I've been reading a lot
about um totalitarian States uh
communism and like what that really
looks like in
practice and it gets real scary real
fast and so looking at Ma China which is
like the anybody that wants to have
their brain absolutely melted there are
three books that I recommend that you
read where you can see just how
terrifying humans can be and that is Mao
the unknown story The Untold Story I can
never remember the exact but that uh the
GG archipelago about the goog system in
Russia and then the red famine which is
about uh the Ukrainian famine uh those
three books will show you that the
depths of human evil like I don't know
how said like it that's really really
unbelievable like what went down and
then when I was thinking about China and
it's
like but ultimately like that is born of
the people like that that is the the
natural outcropping now look it may come
and go and maybe it's just born of the
people right now in this moment and
maybe that you know won't last
buto like it it is the system that they
don't overthrow that would be the right
way to say it because they could at any
moment like if the people really really
don't want it they could overthrow it
and they don't and so that was the eye
opening where I was like oh wow like the
rest of the world does not think of
democracy just to keep it simple the way
that I do yeah and honestly now I'm
beginning to wonder if even kids growing
up now think of democracy the way that I
do and if um demographics are Destiny I
get a little unnerfed
because I'm man I don't I I I am in the
process of formulating my opinion about
this so a lot of what I have is emotions
so going back to your early things that
we are emotional creatures and the way
that we feel determines what we see um a
lot of the emotion that I have that I
have not solidified into an updated
world
view is I'm very unnerved by the amount
of division in the country and I don't
see knowing what I know about humans I
don't see how we get back on to coming
together without massive suffering now
with enough suffering we will but I
don't see how we'll come back together
without just a tremendous amount of
suffering I I wish I could disagree with
you but I I agree with you I Not only
would it take a tremendous amount of
suffering for us to reunite but our
biggest threats right now are also aware
that as long as we don't suffer we're
not really going to unite so they can
just execute as long as they can execute
cleanly on a consistent Vision they will
because you know what we cannot do we
cannot execute cleanly on a consistent
vision and we we I believe in the
American experiment and I believe that
the world is safer with the United
States being the global
superpower but I also think that the
world has
the world hasn't come to that conclusion
on its own so maybe what we need is a
different Global superpower for a while
before the world is like you know what
maybe we don't like this right maybe we
want to return to another system God I
hope it doesn't come to that I hope it
doesn't come to that either because I
won't you and I won't be here for that
my kids will be right my grandkids will
be the ones going through that
transition and that's not going to be a
pretty
transition and who knows it's the the
thing is that again knowing how people
work we are hardwired human beings are
wired to survive we are not wired to
thrive we are wired to survive
ouch
ouch yeah the human brain the whole the
processing that goes between the amydala
and the sensory codex and all the
different parts of your left and right
brain that help you reach conclusions
they were all built and have all evolved
around the idea of IND individual
survival so whatever happens human
beings Will Survive will adapt and Will
Survive we might suffer along the way
but Buddhism says suffering is part of
the experience right so to avoid
suffering is almost contrary to the to
to the faith-based the dominant
faith-based uh religions in the world
right Islam Christianity Buddhism
Hinduism they all agree suffering is
unavoidable but human beings still find
a way to persevere I would love to not
have that
happen but if I was in charge of any
country that didn't want the United
States to be the new Global superpower I
would just let the United States
continue
to pick at its toenails like it does
right now right we're the fat dude in
the corner picking at our hangnail while
the rest of the world
is working out exercis and getting smart
getting ready to go to go to war right
so when you take a look at the
battlefield here not the not the literal
battlefield but the the landscape of
Israel and Palestine what you have is
something that in many ways goes all the
way back to biblical days Abraham who's
the father of all Nations had two sons
Ishmael and Isaac ishma became the
father of Islam Isaac became the father
of Judaism and on to become the father
of Christianity so
the conflict that exists between
Palestine a Muslim country or m a Muslim
uh group and Israel a Jewish largely
predominantly Jewish group essentially
is the the generational ongoing conflict
between Isaac and Ishmael and is there
so forgive me dear listeners but I think
of this as a
story uh and a very powerful story but
one designed to convey things at each
branch so between the brothers I have to
imagine there was a tale that we learn
about each brother each brother
represents something what do the
brothers represent so I I don't I am not
creative enough I think to speak to the
literary uh element Jordan Peterson no
for real like this is his whole shtick
yeah like showing how basically modern
Humanity can be read through the lens of
religious traditions and what those
stories tell you most people haven't
read his book maps of meaning it is
unbelievable
good uh anyway so okay so that part we
don't have that's we have a DOT point
that has a gap maybe we won't be able to
fill it in here but I get your point so
we've got the two brothers they create
two different traditions and they both
lay they both have valid claim all the
way back to the biblical a valid claim
of what a valid claim all the way back
to biblical and or chonic tradition to
being tied to the father of all Nations
okay what does that matter because for
both of them what they're what they're
really trying to say is that they have a
right to survive in in equality that
they are tied to the father of all
Nations but does this come down to hey
we're tied to the father of all Nations
and that manifests as dirt and so this
dirt and rock is rightfully mine uh I
think that's the oversimplified way that
the Western world has is it
oversimplified or is that really what
like at some point this manifests as
something either ideological or t
so the the place where it becomes
tangible and ideological is in the end
of World War II at the end of World War
II the Jewish diaspora that had been
hunted and killed by the Nazi party
needed a a a country of their own and
because other countries in the world
didn't want to take on the refugees they
essentially took them all to the
Palestinian state that is now known as
Israel and was and the West the Western
allies GR granted the boundaries of
Israel and said this is where the Jews
should live this is where Jerusalem
exists this is where the this is this is
their Homeland where they were born
where they came from going back to the
brothers going back to the brothers but
the Palestinian Muslims were already
there they had never been displaced from
their Homeland so by having the West
create a nation state create boundaries
and everything for a group of Rel
religious people Jews that were
persecuted during World War II now all
of a sudden the West defined the
organizational uh National structure of
Israel and that's where the conflict
really started because now you had
Western allies saying this is the Jewish
State the Jewish State defining itself
as Israel the Palestinian diaspora who
were now being forced from their own
Homeland saying but we were already here
like this is this is Jerusalem is the
city where a where uh Muhammad ascended
into heaven like this is a holy place
for us too and so the West was just like
well then you can both share
it we're going home right we got we got
a party after VE day we're we're done
here and that's where everything started
from there you also then had Western
Powers funding and fueling the economic
success of Israel and by the way I just
want people listening at home
uh you are providing a very fast
painting I know enough to know that
there's you know God only knows how much
history of conflict before 1948 where
these boundaries are laid and all that
stuff so I I just want people to
understand this is an exercise on how to
think through a difficult problem this
is not a um a one forone accurate
representation of everything you will
need a far longer video from experts in
this field we we go into this
conversation fully understanding that um
but I do think to the initial framing of
this episode I think it's very important
to understand what I'm trying to do uh I
think putting your head down is the
wrong move at this particular moment in
history there are probably times that
come and go throughout history where it
is okay to put your head down and for
the first 40 years of my life I had my
head down and it worked out wonderfully
uh but this moment feels different now
that could be a mirage maybe it's just
my age and everybody sort of pokes their
head up at this point in their age and
starts thinking the way that I'm
thinking I don't know but this moment
really does feel different to me and
we'll get into Ai and some other things
later I think there are a lot of threats
on the board right now um certainly AI
technology social media all of that we
talked about velocity and volume of
information earlier all of that's at
play so anyway I just want to set that
stage so the Comas doesn't waste time
with like the boring [ __ ] like because
yes simplistic Viewpoint here from the
setting of the table we'll talk okay but
what do you do now right um and what I
really hope because I I think that the
comments are going to end up being a big
part of what makes this episode um
useful to a larger audience so I hope
that we can eliminate some of the
more I don't want people to get bogged
down in the wrong thing so yes many
details to talk about we just need to
set a quick table so that then we can
talk about things like hey when humans
have a historical conflict over who has
a right to the land without getting lost
in the minutia of that right how do you
move forward and that just again so
we're setting the table sorry no so it's
fair so I'll I'll set the table faster
too no no no I don't need you to set it
faster because I know no matter how much
you do we're we're not going to get
there the more detail you have give it
to me for sure fair enough so so then
what ended up happening was now we have
uh as as the West places uh the Jewish
diaspora into Israel and and and
supports the establishment of of a
Jewish State we then also have the
responsibility of the West in fueling
the economy for the Jewish State because
you can't I mean we did the same thing
in Japan we're going to rebuild there's
economic benefits to the United States
in rebuilding foreign countries there's
economic benefits in having allies that
you help economically rebuild so fast
forward till today and now you have
Israel had this massive boost
economically from Western partners and
Western allies when they were placed in
Israel those the the Palestinian
counterparts did not have access to that
Financial benefit that the Israelis did
so there's like you said Decades of
conflict between Israelis and
Palestinians and there's everything's
documented out there and there's a
thousand ways that you can look at it
interpret it and whatever else but in
the end what what happened was the the
Palestinians through the lenss of most
Muslim countries became oppressed became
ostracized from their own like their own
land their own Nation where they could
Thrive and build an economy and build a
political establishment and build a
legacy for their future because that
land was being supported and developed
by the Jewish State and the Jewish State
and the Muslim State just didn't want to
get along for a number of reasons that
that we don't really have a say in
because we didn't live there at the time
right and that's how that's how I
interpret uh the many years of
historical conflict between Palestinians
and Israelis in that
country the place where we have to fast
forward this to is till
1997 in
Hamas became a political group that was
supporting Palestinians in their fight
to resist what was perceived to be
Israeli oppression Hamas became the more
aggressive group versus the Palestinian
Authority which became what's known as a
secular group or a non-religious group
and those became the two the two
political powers vying for support from
the Palestinian people and at the time
in 1987 the vast majority of that
support went to the Palestinian
Authority not to Hamas hamas's promise
at the time was we will destroy the
Israeli country and we will return the
entire country back to the Muslim people
not a religious War they weren't going
after killing Jews they were trying to
destroy
Israel not that it makes it that much
better but at least to CL ver ify what
their Ambitions were in
1987 nobody determined that Hamas was a
terrorist organization in 1987 despite
their claim despite their promise to
eradicate Israel in
1997 following major terrorist attacks
inside the United States the peak being
the Timothy McVey bombing uh of Oklahoma
in Oklahoma City the United States
became very focused on terrorism and
counterterrorism and in 1987 they
created the terrorist watch list or the
foreign terrorist organization list
and in that list they listed every
Muslim extremist group as a terrorist
organization on that list Hamas was
included so at that moment in time in
1997 based on what was happening in the
United States in their struggle with
extremism they targeted Muslim extremism
as one of the other one of the many
extremisms that they would list as
terrorist organizations that's why even
today the United States lists Hamas as a
terrorist group where most of the rest
of the world does not there's even
country like there's only 12 countries
total that that list Hamas as a
terrorist organization and in many ways
it's because those 12 countries there's
11 countries Take the Lead they follow
the lead of the United States the UN as
an organization does not list Hamas as
terrorist so in 1997 Hamas becomes a
terrorist group but there this terrorist
group that also has a political arm
that's supporting and taking care of the
Palestinian people within Gaza
that's already kind of a mess that
becomes complicated right Palestine
can't create a standing army they can't
create their own standing economy they
can't create foreign trade they can't
create anything significant because they
don't have they're not recognized as a
nation so a few Muslim countries like
Qatar and and Saudi Arabia and Egypt
recognize the Palestinian people but not
the Palestinian State and everybody
recognizes the right of the Palestinians
to a state but nobody wants to say what
that state is going to be so that
becomes a mess that most of the first
world doesn't even follow doesn't really
care about until things start blowing up
in Israel and Palestine October 7th
2023 this group known as Hamas based out
of Gaza conducts this massive incursion
the the most doctrinally correct word is
it was an incursion across a border
within one country country closest to a
civil war much closer to a civil war
than an attack from a foreign Nation
right they carry out this incursion that
uses terrorist tactics terrorist tools
but also targets military targets for a
political goal that has been stated and
consistent since
1987 now we live in this world where
what is this thing that's happening the
United States labels the group as a
terrorist group however all humanitarian
Aid that we send to pales
has to go through Hamas like they
control the politics they control the
governance they control the hospitals
not Terror Al-Qaeda never controlled
hospitals right that's it's it's not as
clear as we think it is but it's hard to
get that Nuance across with the velocity
and volume of information so now we live
in this world where velocity and volume
of information make it so that we all
see the dead bodies and the the crying
children and the dying women on the
Palestinian side but we also read about
the atrocities that were executed
against these Israelis in a surprise
attack on October 7th we're faced with
all the information and there's no
clarity as to what's really the Nuance
what's really the the battlefield what
are we really looking at here so you've
got Israel trying to counter what they
know is a is a threat to their National
sovereignty but they've also got a
problem with a group that was created
because of the oppression they put on
the Palestinian people and that's that
is what the group States is their whole
their whole core purpose the reason they
exist at all is because of that
oppression so you've got this this
absolute mess that the world is watching
play out dayto day but at the same time
the world isn't invested enough to
actually try to resolve the
conflict okay um so one I want to
acknowledge that that is a sketch from a
person
perspective um again speaking to the
comment section right now um of course
there are going to be different
perspectives on that I don't know this
well enough to feel like I have a
perspective but I will lay out a few
things that I am aware of um as a way of
filling in additional color to your
point about um trying to triangulate
based on opposing viewpoints and I think
yours is a from the different voices
that I've heard yours is relatively
sedate there are people that are far
sort of harder on the Palestinian side
though I'd say you lean Pro Palestinian
I don't know if that feels right to you
um but that seems reasonable you're
pretty middle of the road but if you
have a lean it's that way um so some of
the other chips that I've heard by way
of putting dots that that people will
have to connect as they try to build a
narrative that creates the emotion that
allows them to have a way of thinking
how to move forward would be okay you
mentioned mentioned the Jews are coming
out of the Holocaust you've just had 6
million people in the diaspora literally
at an industrial level um killed in
unimaginably horrific ways and I can
only imagine you started this by saying
like they're able to trace all of this
back to the brothers and the split and
and the way that that sort of goes and
you mentioned compasses earlier and if
you get off by three degrees in the
beginning doesn't seem like much but you
know a thousand years later uh there's a
huge Gulf between you which is very much
what this feels like I bring that up to
say that um you really can go back and
back and back on who owns the land you
can go back and back and back on who did
who wrong and so um trying to find like
where it all started is probably not
super fruitful um but there if you're
the Israelis or if you're a Jew post
World War II uh never again we're going
to be strong this time we're going to
build nation state that nation state has
to be somewhere we go back to the region
of Judea which is where they derive
their name from so to your point they
were um removed from their Homeland but
still very much um spiritually that
probably isn't the right word but
there's a thing there where they still
have a massive identity in that region
that they're tied to even all these
years later um also it's my
understanding that there was no official
Palestinian state so it's not like the
Jews went in and took over a state so
the West I'm now guessing I want to be
very clear about sort of where I'm
teleporting myself into the mind of
somebody and when I'm offering what I
think are facts now I am very much
speaking like a writer would speak but
if I'm the west and I'm like me there's
no State here anyway I don't really
fully understand the conflict I can see
bad things coming because I'm smart and
I understand humans well enough there's
probably going to be some drama here
which is why the US actually pulls their
support at one point of this whole idea
um but nonetheless is like well we'll do
it we'll bone out to your point we want
to go celebrate we've just won World War
II um and I don't see a better solution
so let's see what happens um through all
of that there are times where um a
two-state solution has been proposed the
Palestinians reject it there's the whole
notion of from The River To The Sea they
don't believe that there's any amount of
Israel that can exist I'm using the word
Israel very intentionally as opposed to
Jews um this is where I don't know it
well enough to know if that ACC
accurately captures the Spirit it
certainly accurately captures the pr
that is very much how it is presented no
no no this isn't about religious
difference this is not a a racist thing
this is just purely Israel has occupied
our land that is rightfully ours and we
want to get rid of the nation state of
Israel of course functionally the way
that you do that is by killing people
ripping them turning them from their
land because they will of course fight
back if they were all just willing to up
and leave then sure but we know that
that's not going to happen so uh
multiple times that that's offered and
rejected for the reasons that I just
laid out um and you end up in a position
now where um you gave me a piece that I
had not heard before so it's very
interesting because I looked at this and
was like okay uh Israel ends up thriving
economically and Palestine has not now
of course um I'm aware of the
positioning of it's an open air prison
how could they ever hope to you have
these people that um have just
subjugated them and of course the econom
is never going to grow uh what I had
never heard before and it's very
interesting is well the West really
helped them when they were in that nent
fragile place the West helped them get
their feet under them I think it begs a
question what have they been doing with
the aid that they've gotten because it's
billions of dollars and so one would
hope that they would be spending that on
infrastructure so anyway this is where I
now start going okay I don't know how
many more pieces it makes sense to put
on the table because I have a base
assumption that now we're just getting
into who's right and who's wrong I have
a base assumption that this will
continue to be an intractable problem if
you are approaching this from right and
wrong which is why again as a headline
reader the Abraham Accords strike me as
very um positive because it was just
human
greed to use a terrible word for
something that maybe isn't bad at all
which is when people are thriving
economically the people feel good you
feel like you have a future you have
hope that your kids lives will be better
than yours and when you get people in
that kind of momentum now they're
pointed in a positive direction so again
I'm leaking my base assumptions here so
my base assumption is you have to give
the Palestinian people a sense of a
future uh that their kids lives would be
better than theirs that you want to fill
them with hope and optimism and all of
that now you're not going to do that
with the who's right and who's wrong now
I happen to have a weird sort of thing
in my life that makes me maybe look at
things a little bit differently again
frame of reference this is bias now but
my wife's family is from Cyprus and for
people that don't know the history of
Cyprus it is freakishly similar to the
Israel Palestine conflict you had Greeks
and Turks living on the same Little
Island if you've never looked it up like
this is not a big place uh living on the
same island and one day in the 70s I
think late 60s early 70s uh the Turks
invade
and they cut the island in half and the
people on North side of the island my
wife's family included they're just
stripped of everything this house isn't
yours it was yours Monday morning when
you woke up Monday night it's not your
house we've seen these videos play out
in Israel Palestine so we know this
drama and I mean gut-wrenching as you
can imagine you literally lose
everything in an instant man like I I
can't imagine like if if tonight this
house and everything that I own ceased
to be mine
that would be obviously the most
traumatic thing that ever happened to me
in my life so brutal the crazy thing is
that you don't have the same ongoing
Bloodshed between the Greeks and the
Turks and so it makes me ask what is
different because you have the same
sense of the Greeks like that's not
their land to take they have no right to
that land that was our land we were
kicked out of it it's rightfully ours
you can trace it back so much you know
history of Greeks occupying the island
raising it you know from nothingness
taming it all that like I mean the
Greeks have a very long history and so
and I'm sure the Turks would say the
same thing right so even though you have
all of that you have not got the same s
like they've manag to reach
stability so the question becomes what
what is different and this is where it
seems to me that you have to at least
begin exploring the ideologies and
what's happening and again you're never
going to get either side to give up
their religion so I for me as I think
through this difficult problem I'm just
saying whatever solution you're going to
propose has to take that off the table
you cannot ask them to go oh the other
person's right their religion is correct
they're not going to do that you can't
ask them to go uh you're right we're
we're just going to move out of Israel
and hand it over they're never going to
do that and given that in 2005 the Jews
pulled out of the West Bank and out of
the Gaza Strip and it didn't solve the
conflict so they even
if another was like hey but if you just
leave this area then everything really
will be fine they don't have a reason to
believe like historically just the way
the humans are they're going to be like
no we tried that and it didn't work so
you got to take that off the table so
now it when I think about okay as I tell
entrepreneurs all the time if you have a
difficult problem to solve ask yourself
has anybody solved this problem in the
past and if you want to look at it from
apartheid cool look at South Africa what
what did they get right um or look at
som