Kind: captions
Language: en
so Ray doio takes a very economic view
of the world and he's like oh hey by the
way what he calls the big cycle is so
predictable that he broke it down into
six
phases and every Empire has gone through
these six phases they last for roughly
like 100 to 150 years America's
basically at the end of the 100e cycle
um and phase six is total collapse War
basically and the old world order falls
apart there's usually a violent war and
then a new world order is established
and we are like clockwork on the cycle
from a money perspective from a division
perspective like everything just lines
up so you have to have an internal
populace that is divided uh you need to
get yourself over your skis from a debt
perspective which we've done you have to
start printing money like crazy and
there has to be a new superpower on the
rise like it's the the stage is set and
the stage was set in World War II which
is how we became the dominant power to
your point about waking a sleeping
Dragon sleeping Dragon woke up but now
uh we're in trouble so that's my overly
simplistic view of why this worked it
was sort of a fluke uh not a fluke but
it was we we hit the cycle at just the
right moment when the British Empire
collapsed at the end of World War II um
because of our geography we weren't
destroyed by bombs so we come out of the
war pretty much unscathed so we ramp up
all of our production capabilities we
absolutely um crush it we help win we
create the nuclear bomb like just a lot
of things come together and so then
we're established as the world Reserve
currency um because it's not like we
weren't divided before then but we got
to really
enjoy uh a hot minute of prosperity does
that seem like the right breakdown of
why we could over come our differences
previously and now we can't like how do
you yeah I don't think it's wrong I
don't think it's wrong at all I think
that it's interesting to me because it
sounds like Ray doio one of the reasons
you respect him so much is because his
analysis is based in economics and he
he's put his money where his mouth is
economics and economists have long been
viewed as the true predictors of future
Prosperity at CIA we lean heavily into
economic studies economic experts
economic Anis the the law of Economics
because the law of Economics is that of
the law of
scarcity one of the first and most
underrated economists out there was
actually a Soviet Economist a guy named
Krav Krav created what's known as the
krati of wave the K krati of cycle that
cycle essentially puts us uh it explains
the pattern of uh Interstate conflict or
intrastate conflict where where
countries compete actually go to war
with each other and it and it puts it on
about a 25e cycle 25 years to a peak in
Conflict 25 years to A A Drop In
conflict and then as the wave continues
like most waves the actual uh peak of
the Waves expands so it goes from being
25 years to 25 years to then 32 years to
32 years and you start to see this
longer slower wave right but it's still
a wave it's still a wave form the next
peak of conflict according to Krav wave
against the United States's point of
view happens in about 2024 2025 oh great
so we now have multiple economists
basically saying that there's a peak
coming a peak of conflict coming and
that Conflict for the kraia wave is a
peak of popular conflict and unpopular
conflict so we're coming off of an
unpopular conflict right Afghanistan and
and Iraq largely turned into an
unpopular Conflict at the end right and
the wave between when that started and
when the next wave is coming is right in
that 25e Mark right so according to Krav
we are very we are not only coming up on
a period of conflict but it will be
popular inside the United States so
people will rally behind that conflict
that doesn't mean we're going to win
that doesn't necessarily mean it's going
to be in our best interest but it does
mean to your point earlier that we might
see that moment where everybody kind of
comes together
again I think part of the reason that we
were able to be successful was because
of the same rules of Economics that you
laid out from World War II our
country hugely unpopular western
expansion was hugely unpopular at the
time the Civil War nobody wants to see
the Civil War again most people would
say the Civil War was a traumatic and
horrible you know loss of life at the
time there was no other option Abraham
Lincoln had no option except to pursue
Civil War because he knew that the
presidents before him had been working
to create a single solitary nation that
had National Security from coast to
coast we can say it was a fight for
State's rights we can say it was a fight
for slavery we can say it was a fight
for lots of things and those are also
true but they may not be the number one
reason while the CI why the Civil War
was so important the Civil War was so
important because we needed to remain
one unified country from coast to coast
to have American Primacy in the long run
American Primacy is concept that was
created by Alexander Hamilton really
American privacy is not new there's an
entire Society out there called the
Alexander Hamilton Society that's
focused on pres on preserving the ideals
of Alexander Hamilton and the founding
fathers who all believed that a strong
United States meant a strong world
because they saw and lived through the
oppression of living under a monarchy
right if you look at the top five
wealthiest countries in the world right
now the top five wealthiest countries in
the world
two of them are democracies the other
three are monarchies right so the idea
that democracy is the solution to all
wealth and success hasn't really been
proven yet we're still outnumbered by
monarchies right so what does the future
hold the future will be DET will be
conflict is coming multiple economists
have pointed to it you can see the
writing on the wall what my wife and I
call the writing on the wall conflict is
coming what will that conflict look like
is the bigger question you talked
earlier about how you know you and I
might be of the same ilk when it comes
to are we already engaged in World War
III is World War III coming up what will
that world war look like there is
conflict coming there is no reason for
us to think it will look like it looked
in World War II if anything conflict has
proven to us that it evolves and changes
just like technology and just like human
thinking right but it's still
predictable because it takes human
beings to wage war
I don't think I'm answering your
question very well here but these are
all this is where my brain goes stage so
my question is do you see this uh as a a
conflict with China does it become open
Warfare is this going to be over Taiwan
like or the Russia Ukraine thing spills
over into something how do you see this
playing out so my honest my honest
anticipation what I expect will happen
is that China will make a legal move on
Taiwan what China did in Hong Kong was
legal first they changed the laws in
Hong Kong they changed the laws in China
which then changed the laws in Hong Kong
which made it legal for them to go in
and and take Hong Kong by force in 2019
right before Co hit the whole world
watched and it happened and the whole
world complained and threw a fit and
leveraged sanctions and said it was
unfair and unjust and everything else
and then the Chinese did it anyways and
now here it is 2023 and most people
don't even remember what happened in
Hong Kong just 4 years ago now they're
watching what's happening in Ukraine now
in
Ukraine some people say that what
happened in Ukraine is that the world
rallied behind Ukraine by giving them
weapons and giving them training and
giving them resources the most limited
resource in Ukraine is Ukrainian
soldiers it's not tanks or guns or
howitzers the thing that will run out
first is Ukrainian Fighters that's like
it's been it's it's a shame to me to
watch what's happening because the
Ukrainian fighting force is putting up
such a valiant fight they're doing
everything they possibly can to equip
every war fighter to be worth 10 20 30
50 Russian Fighters right but that's
their most limited resource they're not
going to be able to create more Russian
fighters in the next three to five years
you just can't you can't turn a
5-year-old into an 18-year-old so the
that's the resource that's the the clock
that zilinsky knows he's fighting
against he's racing against is not a
clock of fighter jets or or missile
defense systems it's how am I going to
find enough Fighters and NATO and the
West know that they don't want to put
their boots in Ukraine fighting the
Russians because that's all it would
take for the Russians to basically say
hey NATO allies are killing Russians so
now Russia can kill NATO allies and
because Russia is a nuclear power they
essentially have the same P like the
same Trump card that we had in World War
II so nobody in NATO wants to mess with
that trump card because when you have an
animal cornered yeah it does amazing
things right so what I see happening is
China will make a legal move on Taiwan
what legal play do they have with Taiwan
though they they have a number of legal
plays first of all do you know what the
American official American stance is on
Taiwan it's something like um we're
we're not going to do anything but don't
like touch them it's so like bizar vague
yeah it's called The One China two
systems policy essentially in the eyes
of American policy Taiwan already
belongs to China
interesting so then China also has
acknowledged with Taiwan you have your
own system but you're still part of the
mother country this is Hong Kong 2.0
Hong Kong 2.0 and over the stretch of
like what is it 80 miles from coast to
coast between between Southeastern China
and Taiwan so
it's it's sticky man if if China makes a
legislative move that basically forces
the Taiwanese system to then say you are
now communist right they could have the
Legal Foundation to do that and then a
legal attack is very similar to what
they did in Hong Kong that goes to court
systems that doesn't go to bullets right
and then when the legal system starts to
go in their best interest or in their
favor now China has legal grounds to
basically have Chinese police officers
enforce Chinese law inside Taiwan this
whole process what the hell is the
United States going to do there's no
missiles there's no guns you can drive
through the straights all you want it's
a legal issue it's not a military issue
so I anticipate China making a legal
move on Taiwan that will be supported by
key members in the UN why because how
many of the bricks are in the the the
leading countries in the UN all of them
right if you look at the Ukrainian
conflict now the news media
oversimplifies everything so media says
that the UN passes resolutions that
condemn Russia that's true and the U and
the UN passes resolutions with a large
majority 140 countries you know condemn
Russia that is also true what they're
not telling you is that the countries
who are not condemning Russia are the
largest wealthiest countries in the UN
China is not condemning Russia South
Africa is not condemning Russia India is
not condemning Russia right even inside
NATO you have Belgium and Hungary who
are not condemning Russia really so even
NATO is not unified on this whoa right
China's seeing all of this and China
seeing it for what it really is not for
what American Media is telling the
American people it is the American Media
isn't they're not trying to you know
they're not trying to lead us astray
they're just trying to run a business
they're trying to get people to read
their newspaper click their links see
their ads so that they can have they can
pay their employees the next pay cycle
it's all media is trying to do it's not
trying to lead us down the wrong path so
once there's an administrative Takeover
in Taiwan China has all the rules that
it like all the cover it needs to
basically just shipping to start
shipping National Guard troops uh police
officers even military units over to
Taiwan and now Taiwan belongs to China
in a bloodless War very similar to the
bloodless coups that we've seen multiple
times in places like Thailand or all
over southeast Asia right that's how I
see it happening and I see it largely
happening in the lead to the 2024
election because China is going to
benefit from a very confused American
base will be Peak division during Peak
Division and an electoral cycle wow
that's so distressing because that feels
very
plausible uh okay so we have a lot of
business interests there so what will
our reaction be cuz my first thought was
our reaction will be oh maybe that's the
best way for this to happen we can be
like ah we don't have to go and commit
our American lives to it uh they did it
just like Taiwan or sorry just like Hong
Kong where we'll you know rant and Rave
and say this is a problem and how dare
you and sanctions But ultimately be glad
that we're not sending people to die but
do we have enough business interest
there that especially in in you know
sensitive areas like chip manufacturing
where we can't let it go our business
interests with China are significantly
bigger than our business interests with
Taiwan wow Taiwan has the market
cornered on semiconductors but that's
not just for the United States they have
the market they have like 98% of the
market share damn in semiconductor
manufacturing who designs the
semiconductors we do we have all the IP
they just have the plants that's why one
of the big initiatives in Biden's chip
Act is to actually bring uh T tsmc tmsc
I forget the name of the country or I
forget the name of the company the main
manufacturer in thawan to actually bring
them to the United States so they're
trying to build manufacturing plants for
the Taiwanese company here in the
flyover states in the United States so
that we can just bring that tool God
this is going to be a fascinating 10 to
20 year period absolutely you just
nailed it right there it is going to be
a fascinating decade to two decades in
the future so that's what I want to
focus on that's what I encourage my
clients to focus on it's not about what
happens now or in the next two years
it's about what are you going to do so
that your family your business your
financial Legacy your individual Legacy
is
safeguarded for what the world could
look like 10 to 20 years from now the
the world could look like the United
States is still the economic and
Military superpower it could look like
that so you may not have to change much
but according to economists by 2033
China will be the economic superpower
that's not far away if we print money
like crazy then we could not go to zero
but like every other superpower before
us you you really get knocked for six it
is not a minor thing that happens right
and then you lose your ability to print
your way out of things which then you go
into
austerity now you look like England post
World War II which hey England's amazing
but they definitely had some rough years
and they're certainly not the global
super power that we are now but I've
sort of always imagined us falling into
the number two position where we still
maintain some real might uh that we have
massive influence in other parts of the
world that there will almost certainly
be Parts like Europe and look they're an
economic mess but Parts like Europe that
are going to be far more aligned most
likely certainly culturally with America
than they would be with China and so you
get sort of a more like cold warry Vibe
where America's Russia was a huge player
for anybody that's too young to remember
Russia was a beast when I was a kid now
we didn't know that it was a bit of a
paper Tiger but like they
really uh they mattered on the global
stage and I imagine will still matter I
think you're asking yourself the right
questions
right what knowing that humans are
laughably
predictable if China becomes the next
Global superpower what is the laughably
predictable thing that would happen next
M right the most predictable outcome is
that China would take the number one
spot we would fall to the number two
spot who's always everyone's
Target the guy in the lead so right now
the world is Unified that the United
States is Enemy Number One even if
they're our allies we're still Enemy
Number One you think NATO likes the
United States no France and Germany have
both come out to say that they don't
want the United States in NATO anymore
what absolutely the chancellor of
Germany has said he wants Germany to
have the largest army in Europe
specifically so that they can't be
bossed around anymore by the United
States because everybody's
over-dependent on the United States
military right the president of France
early in the invasion with Ukraine shut
Biden down and said you are actually you
are exacerbating this conflict with the
rhetoric that you're spitting in Poland
and the United States when you don't
even have the United States isn't even
within the firing range of Russia right
right so France and Germany have had
something to say Biden has been so
successful with his policy in in Poland
because Poland has long had history uh
against Russia so it's a natural like
it's a natural way in Poland already
hates Russia and Poland will take any
help it can get from anybody in NATO and
so the United States comes in and says
hey we'll help you Poland will back you
up and Poland backs the United States up
but Canada and France and Russia and
Germany and the UK they have a very
different story there w we we have to
talk about France so I was scandalized
in my research to hear you say that when
you think about like the most
hardcore uh intelligence agencies that
France of all places is like brutal the
DSG dgs D yep uh what's their stick why
France so there's a couple reasons why
France um so one of the biggest reasons
why France is because in the late 90s
the United States CIA was caught spying
on the French government just like in
the early 2010s we were caught cat we
were caught spying on the German
government right unlike Germany France
holds a grudge so is France not spying
on us of course they are yeah yeah yeah
of course they are so but it's like we
got caught and so now they get to be mad
no it's more like something changed
prior to the '90s prior to the late 9s
France wasn't so interested in the
United States they were interested in
direct threats to France well now in the
late 9s there's this giant flap inside
France and now France is like [ __ ] the
Americans right so they start to
dedicate resources to building up an
intelligence service and a skill set
that makes sure that they will never be
penetrated by the Americans again right
the dgse becomes one of the and Still
Remains one of the best funded most
technically capable intelligence
services in the
world why does French why does France
have enough money to put all of their
resources into their intelligence
operations because guess what they don't
have to worry about military industrial
complex because they're part of NATO and
the United States wants to keep sending
weapons and troops into the European
countries so the United States has
basically bought its influence in NATO
by forcing Europe to prioritize or
giving Europe the opportunity to
prioritize
economic growth in other avenues besides
military Industrial Development that's
why most of the militaries in Europe are
very weak and very small now there are
some that are modernized which is why
everybody's so excited about Sweden and
Finland coming into NATO but most other
countries are outdated and underfunded
they don't need to be funded because if
something happens in Poland Article Five
of the NATO alliance means that the
United States military is going to come
save the day so they're okay with that
and of course the United States is okay
with that too because it means there's
never going to be a military competitor
in Northern in the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization as a result what does get
to happen is those countries can take
all the money that they would spend on
military defense and and channel it into
intelligence operations now when they
Channel it into intelligence operations
against China North Korea Iran terrorism
they share that information back and
forth with the United States selectively
and they build that Alliance but they
also spend those resources spying
against the United States so funny and
because France specifically is so
well-funded and holds a grudge and is so
Adept specifically at targeting
Americans they have made a huge impact
in the space of Economic and Industrial
Espionage against the United States
there there are if you talk to an
intelligence professional like I'm sure
you have friends in your network and
you're like hey is France really that
big a deal you will hear the same thing
over and over again [ __ ] France wow you
will hear those two words from every
intelligence professional out there
because we have all been bested at some
point in time by the dgse they either
stumbled into one of our cases they
false flagged and pretended to be CIA
and recruited an asset from underneath
us or who knows what right but they know
how to Target Americans whoa and nobody
knows they even exist it's the perfect
kind of clandestine operation nobody
even knows the threat is there we live
in a rapidly changing often chaotic
world and there's so much breaking news
that it's honestly hard to keep track of
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or click the link below the way way that
information Warfare works leveraging the
human animal against itself I am waking
up to a reality that I've been so
focused in my life on my businesses and
my loves and passions and my wife oh my
God that I just I I've totally I'm
totally blind all this and that I have
an outdated Vision like I think of
France from the 80s and 90s when I was a
kid and like them put their hands up
they don't even fight back 100% And so
my vision I'm sure on a lot of these
countries is really skewed in terms of
what they actually think about us cuz I
remember um there was a lot of that
grumbling when the World Trade Center
first not not 911 but in the 90s when
they first bombed it where it was like
uh there are people in the world that
hate Americans I was like say what like
I had completely you know my own sort of
ins slated vision of America and just we
export culture and America's so great
and who wouldn't love democracy yeah
that was the first time where I was like
whoa wait a second like people don't
actually want this and that is so in
recent years I've been reading a lot
about um totalitarian States uh
communism and like what that really
looks like in
practice and it gets real scary real
fast and so looking at Ma China which is
like the anybody that wants to have
their brain absolutely melted there are
three books that I recommend that you
read where you can see just how
terrifying humans can be and that is Mao
the unknown story The Untold Story I can
never remember the exact but that uh the
GG archipelago about the goog system in
Russia and then the red famine which is
about uh the Ukrainian famine uh those
three books will show you that the
depths of human evil like I don't know
how said like it that's really really
unbelievable like what went down and
then when I was thinking about China and
it's
like but ultimately like that is born of
the people like that that is the the
natural outcropping now look it may come
and go and maybe it's just born of the
people right now in this moment and
maybe that you know won't last
buto like it it is the system that they
don't overthrow that would be the right
way to say it because they could at any
moment like if the people really really
don't want it they could overthrow it
and they don't and so that was the eye
opening where I was like oh wow like the
rest of the world does not think of
democracy just to keep it simple the way
that I do yeah and honestly now I'm
beginning to wonder if even kids growing
up now think of democracy the way that I
do and if um demographics are Destiny I
get a little unnerfed
because I'm man I don't I I I am in the
process of formulating my opinion about
this so a lot of what I have is emotions
so going back to your early things that
we are emotional creatures and the way
that we feel determines what we see um a
lot of the emotion that I have that I
have not solidified into an updated
world
view is I'm very unnerved by the amount
of division in the country and I don't
see knowing what I know about humans I
don't see how we get back on to coming
together without massive suffering now
with enough suffering we will but I
don't see how we'll come back together
without just a tremendous amount of
suffering I I wish I could disagree with
you but I I agree with you I Not only
would it take a tremendous amount of
suffering for us to reunite but our
biggest threats right now are also aware
that as long as we don't suffer we're
not really going to unite so they can
just execute as long as they can execute
cleanly on a consistent Vision they will
because you know what we cannot do we
cannot execute cleanly on a consistent
vision and we we I believe in the
American experiment and I believe that
the world is safer with the United
States being the global
superpower but I also think that the
world has
the world hasn't come to that conclusion
on its own so maybe what we need is a
different Global superpower for a while
before the world is like you know what
maybe we don't like this right maybe we
want to return to another system God I
hope it doesn't come to that I hope it
doesn't come to that either because I
won't you and I won't be here for that
my kids will be right my grandkids will
be the ones going through that
transition and that's not going to be a
pretty
transition and who knows it's the the
thing is that again knowing how people
work we are hardwired human beings are
wired to survive we are not wired to
thrive we are wired to survive
ouch
ouch yeah the human brain the whole the
processing that goes between the amydala
and the sensory codex and all the
different parts of your left and right
brain that help you reach conclusions
they were all built and have all evolved
around the idea of IND individual
survival so whatever happens human
beings Will Survive will adapt and Will
Survive we might suffer along the way
but Buddhism says suffering is part of
the experience right so to avoid
suffering is almost contrary to the to
to the faith-based the dominant
faith-based uh religions in the world
right Islam Christianity Buddhism
Hinduism they all agree suffering is
unavoidable but human beings still find
a way to persevere I would love to not
have that
happen but if I was in charge of any
country that didn't want the United
States to be the new Global superpower I
would just let the United States
continue
to pick at its toenails like it does
right now right we're the fat dude in
the corner picking at our hangnail while
the rest of the world
is working out exercis and getting smart
getting ready to go to go to war right
so when you take a look at the
battlefield here not the not the literal
battlefield but the the landscape of
Israel and Palestine what you have is
something that in many ways goes all the
way back to biblical days Abraham who's
the father of all Nations had two sons
Ishmael and Isaac ishma became the
father of Islam Isaac became the father
of Judaism and on to become the father
of Christianity so
the conflict that exists between
Palestine a Muslim country or m a Muslim
uh group and Israel a Jewish largely
predominantly Jewish group essentially
is the the generational ongoing conflict
between Isaac and Ishmael and is there
so forgive me dear listeners but I think
of this as a
story uh and a very powerful story but
one designed to convey things at each
branch so between the brothers I have to
imagine there was a tale that we learn
about each brother each brother
represents something what do the
brothers represent so I I don't I am not
creative enough I think to speak to the
literary uh element Jordan Peterson no
for real like this is his whole shtick
yeah like showing how basically modern
Humanity can be read through the lens of
religious traditions and what those
stories tell you most people haven't
read his book maps of meaning it is
unbelievable
good uh anyway so okay so that part we
don't have that's we have a DOT point
that has a gap maybe we won't be able to
fill it in here but I get your point so
we've got the two brothers they create
two different traditions and they both
lay they both have valid claim all the
way back to the biblical a valid claim
of what a valid claim all the way back
to biblical and or chonic tradition to
being tied to the father of all Nations
okay what does that matter because for
both of them what they're what they're
really trying to say is that they have a
right to survive in in equality that
they are tied to the father of all
Nations but does this come down to hey
we're tied to the father of all Nations
and that manifests as dirt and so this
dirt and rock is rightfully mine uh I
think that's the oversimplified way that
the Western world has is it
oversimplified or is that really what
like at some point this manifests as
something either ideological or t
so the the place where it becomes
tangible and ideological is in the end
of World War II at the end of World War
II the Jewish diaspora that had been
hunted and killed by the Nazi party
needed a a a country of their own and
because other countries in the world
didn't want to take on the refugees they
essentially took them all to the
Palestinian state that is now known as
Israel and was and the West the Western
allies GR granted the boundaries of
Israel and said this is where the Jews
should live this is where Jerusalem
exists this is where the this is this is
their Homeland where they were born
where they came from going back to the
brothers going back to the brothers but
the Palestinian Muslims were already
there they had never been displaced from
their Homeland so by having the West
create a nation state create boundaries
and everything for a group of Rel
religious people Jews that were
persecuted during World War II now all
of a sudden the West defined the
organizational uh National structure of
Israel and that's where the conflict
really started because now you had
Western allies saying this is the Jewish
State the Jewish State defining itself
as Israel the Palestinian diaspora who
were now being forced from their own
Homeland saying but we were already here
like this is this is Jerusalem is the
city where a where uh Muhammad ascended
into heaven like this is a holy place
for us too and so the West was just like
well then you can both share
it we're going home right we got we got
a party after VE day we're we're done
here and that's where everything started
from there you also then had Western
Powers funding and fueling the economic
success of Israel and by the way I just
want people listening at home
uh you are providing a very fast
painting I know enough to know that
there's you know God only knows how much
history of conflict before 1948 where
these boundaries are laid and all that
stuff so I I just want people to
understand this is an exercise on how to
think through a difficult problem this
is not a um a one forone accurate
representation of everything you will
need a far longer video from experts in
this field we we go into this
conversation fully understanding that um
but I do think to the initial framing of
this episode I think it's very important
to understand what I'm trying to do uh I
think putting your head down is the
wrong move at this particular moment in
history there are probably times that
come and go throughout history where it
is okay to put your head down and for
the first 40 years of my life I had my
head down and it worked out wonderfully
uh but this moment feels different now
that could be a mirage maybe it's just
my age and everybody sort of pokes their
head up at this point in their age and
starts thinking the way that I'm
thinking I don't know but this moment
really does feel different to me and
we'll get into Ai and some other things
later I think there are a lot of threats
on the board right now um certainly AI
technology social media all of that we
talked about velocity and volume of
information earlier all of that's at
play so anyway I just want to set that
stage so the Comas doesn't waste time
with like the boring [ __ ] like because
yes simplistic Viewpoint here from the
setting of the table we'll talk okay but
what do you do now right um and what I
really hope because I I think that the
comments are going to end up being a big
part of what makes this episode um
useful to a larger audience so I hope
that we can eliminate some of the
more I don't want people to get bogged
down in the wrong thing so yes many
details to talk about we just need to
set a quick table so that then we can
talk about things like hey when humans
have a historical conflict over who has
a right to the land without getting lost
in the minutia of that right how do you
move forward and that just again so
we're setting the table sorry no so it's
fair so I'll I'll set the table faster
too no no no I don't need you to set it
faster because I know no matter how much
you do we're we're not going to get
there the more detail you have give it
to me for sure fair enough so so then
what ended up happening was now we have
uh as as the West places uh the Jewish
diaspora into Israel and and and
supports the establishment of of a
Jewish State we then also have the
responsibility of the West in fueling
the economy for the Jewish State because
you can't I mean we did the same thing
in Japan we're going to rebuild there's
economic benefits to the United States
in rebuilding foreign countries there's
economic benefits in having allies that
you help economically rebuild so fast
forward till today and now you have
Israel had this massive boost
economically from Western partners and
Western allies when they were placed in
Israel those the the Palestinian
counterparts did not have access to that
Financial benefit that the Israelis did
so there's like you said Decades of
conflict between Israelis and
Palestinians and there's everything's
documented out there and there's a
thousand ways that you can look at it
interpret it and whatever else but in
the end what what happened was the the
Palestinians through the lenss of most
Muslim countries became oppressed became
ostracized from their own like their own
land their own Nation where they could
Thrive and build an economy and build a
political establishment and build a
legacy for their future because that
land was being supported and developed
by the Jewish State and the Jewish State
and the Muslim State just didn't want to
get along for a number of reasons that
that we don't really have a say in
because we didn't live there at the time
right and that's how that's how I
interpret uh the many years of
historical conflict between Palestinians
and Israelis in that
country the place where we have to fast
forward this to is till
1997 in
Hamas became a political group that was
supporting Palestinians in their fight
to resist what was perceived to be
Israeli oppression Hamas became the more
aggressive group versus the Palestinian
Authority which became what's known as a
secular group or a non-religious group
and those became the two the two
political powers vying for support from
the Palestinian people and at the time
in 1987 the vast majority of that
support went to the Palestinian
Authority not to Hamas hamas's promise
at the time was we will destroy the
Israeli country and we will return the
entire country back to the Muslim people
not a religious War they weren't going
after killing Jews they were trying to
destroy
Israel not that it makes it that much
better but at least to CL ver ify what
their Ambitions were in
1987 nobody determined that Hamas was a
terrorist organization in 1987 despite
their claim despite their promise to
eradicate Israel in
1997 following major terrorist attacks
inside the United States the peak being
the Timothy McVey bombing uh of Oklahoma
in Oklahoma City the United States
became very focused on terrorism and
counterterrorism and in 1987 they
created the terrorist watch list or the
foreign terrorist organization list
and in that list they listed every
Muslim extremist group as a terrorist
organization on that list Hamas was
included so at that moment in time in
1997 based on what was happening in the
United States in their struggle with
extremism they targeted Muslim extremism
as one of the other one of the many
extremisms that they would list as
terrorist organizations that's why even
today the United States lists Hamas as a
terrorist group where most of the rest
of the world does not there's even
country like there's only 12 countries
total that that list Hamas as a
terrorist organization and in many ways
it's because those 12 countries there's
11 countries Take the Lead they follow
the lead of the United States the UN as
an organization does not list Hamas as
terrorist so in 1997 Hamas becomes a
terrorist group but there this terrorist
group that also has a political arm
that's supporting and taking care of the
Palestinian people within Gaza
that's already kind of a mess that
becomes complicated right Palestine
can't create a standing army they can't
create their own standing economy they
can't create foreign trade they can't
create anything significant because they
don't have they're not recognized as a
nation so a few Muslim countries like
Qatar and and Saudi Arabia and Egypt
recognize the Palestinian people but not
the Palestinian State and everybody
recognizes the right of the Palestinians
to a state but nobody wants to say what
that state is going to be so that
becomes a mess that most of the first
world doesn't even follow doesn't really
care about until things start blowing up
in Israel and Palestine October 7th
2023 this group known as Hamas based out
of Gaza conducts this massive incursion
the the most doctrinally correct word is
it was an incursion across a border
within one country country closest to a
civil war much closer to a civil war
than an attack from a foreign Nation
right they carry out this incursion that
uses terrorist tactics terrorist tools
but also targets military targets for a
political goal that has been stated and
consistent since
1987 now we live in this world where
what is this thing that's happening the
United States labels the group as a
terrorist group however all humanitarian
Aid that we send to pales
has to go through Hamas like they
control the politics they control the
governance they control the hospitals
not Terror Al-Qaeda never controlled
hospitals right that's it's it's not as
clear as we think it is but it's hard to
get that Nuance across with the velocity
and volume of information so now we live
in this world where velocity and volume
of information make it so that we all
see the dead bodies and the the crying
children and the dying women on the
Palestinian side but we also read about
the atrocities that were executed
against these Israelis in a surprise
attack on October 7th we're faced with
all the information and there's no
clarity as to what's really the Nuance
what's really the the battlefield what
are we really looking at here so you've
got Israel trying to counter what they
know is a is a threat to their National
sovereignty but they've also got a
problem with a group that was created
because of the oppression they put on
the Palestinian people and that's that
is what the group States is their whole
their whole core purpose the reason they
exist at all is because of that
oppression so you've got this this
absolute mess that the world is watching
play out dayto day but at the same time
the world isn't invested enough to
actually try to resolve the
conflict okay um so one I want to
acknowledge that that is a sketch from a
person
perspective um again speaking to the
comment section right now um of course
there are going to be different
perspectives on that I don't know this
well enough to feel like I have a
perspective but I will lay out a few
things that I am aware of um as a way of
filling in additional color to your
point about um trying to triangulate
based on opposing viewpoints and I think
yours is a from the different voices
that I've heard yours is relatively
sedate there are people that are far
sort of harder on the Palestinian side
though I'd say you lean Pro Palestinian
I don't know if that feels right to you
um but that seems reasonable you're
pretty middle of the road but if you
have a lean it's that way um so some of
the other chips that I've heard by way
of putting dots that that people will
have to connect as they try to build a
narrative that creates the emotion that
allows them to have a way of thinking
how to move forward would be okay you
mentioned mentioned the Jews are coming
out of the Holocaust you've just had 6
million people in the diaspora literally
at an industrial level um killed in
unimaginably horrific ways and I can
only imagine you started this by saying
like they're able to trace all of this
back to the brothers and the split and
and the way that that sort of goes and
you mentioned compasses earlier and if
you get off by three degrees in the
beginning doesn't seem like much but you
know a thousand years later uh there's a
huge Gulf between you which is very much
what this feels like I bring that up to
say that um you really can go back and
back and back on who owns the land you
can go back and back and back on who did
who wrong and so um trying to find like
where it all started is probably not
super fruitful um but there if you're
the Israelis or if you're a Jew post
World War II uh never again we're going
to be strong this time we're going to
build nation state that nation state has
to be somewhere we go back to the region
of Judea which is where they derive
their name from so to your point they
were um removed from their Homeland but
still very much um spiritually that
probably isn't the right word but
there's a thing there where they still
have a massive identity in that region
that they're tied to even all these
years later um also it's my
understanding that there was no official
Palestinian state so it's not like the
Jews went in and took over a state so
the West I'm now guessing I want to be
very clear about sort of where I'm
teleporting myself into the mind of
somebody and when I'm offering what I
think are facts now I am very much
speaking like a writer would speak but
if I'm the west and I'm like me there's
no State here anyway I don't really
fully understand the conflict I can see
bad things coming because I'm smart and
I understand humans well enough there's
probably going to be some drama here
which is why the US actually pulls their
support at one point of this whole idea
um but nonetheless is like well we'll do
it we'll bone out to your point we want
to go celebrate we've just won World War
II um and I don't see a better solution
so let's see what happens um through all
of that there are times where um a
two-state solution has been proposed the
Palestinians reject it there's the whole
notion of from The River To The Sea they
don't believe that there's any amount of
Israel that can exist I'm using the word
Israel very intentionally as opposed to
Jews um this is where I don't know it
well enough to know if that ACC
accurately captures the Spirit it
certainly accurately captures the pr
that is very much how it is presented no
no no this isn't about religious
difference this is not a a racist thing
this is just purely Israel has occupied
our land that is rightfully ours and we
want to get rid of the nation state of
Israel of course functionally the way
that you do that is by killing people
ripping them turning them from their
land because they will of course fight
back if they were all just willing to up
and leave then sure but we know that
that's not going to happen so uh
multiple times that that's offered and
rejected for the reasons that I just
laid out um and you end up in a position
now where um you gave me a piece that I
had not heard before so it's very
interesting because I looked at this and
was like okay uh Israel ends up thriving
economically and Palestine has not now
of course um I'm aware of the
positioning of it's an open air prison
how could they ever hope to you have
these people that um have just
subjugated them and of course the econom
is never going to grow uh what I had
never heard before and it's very
interesting is well the West really
helped them when they were in that nent
fragile place the West helped them get
their feet under them I think it begs a
question what have they been doing with
the aid that they've gotten because it's
billions of dollars and so one would
hope that they would be spending that on
infrastructure so anyway this is where I
now start going okay I don't know how
many more pieces it makes sense to put
on the table because I have a base
assumption that now we're just getting
into who's right and who's wrong I have
a base assumption that this will
continue to be an intractable problem if
you are approaching this from right and
wrong which is why again as a headline
reader the Abraham Accords strike me as
very um positive because it was just
human
greed to use a terrible word for
something that maybe isn't bad at all
which is when people are thriving
economically the people feel good you
feel like you have a future you have
hope that your kids lives will be better
than yours and when you get people in
that kind of momentum now they're
pointed in a positive direction so again
I'm leaking my base assumptions here so
my base assumption is you have to give
the Palestinian people a sense of a
future uh that their kids lives would be
better than theirs that you want to fill
them with hope and optimism and all of
that now you're not going to do that
with the who's right and who's wrong now
I happen to have a weird sort of thing
in my life that makes me maybe look at
things a little bit differently again
frame of reference this is bias now but
my wife's family is from Cyprus and for
people that don't know the history of
Cyprus it is freakishly similar to the
Israel Palestine conflict you had Greeks
and Turks living on the same Little
Island if you've never looked it up like
this is not a big place uh living on the
same island and one day in the 70s I
think late 60s early 70s uh the Turks
invade
and they cut the island in half and the
people on North side of the island my
wife's family included they're just
stripped of everything this house isn't
yours it was yours Monday morning when
you woke up Monday night it's not your
house we've seen these videos play out
in Israel Palestine so we know this
drama and I mean gut-wrenching as you
can imagine you literally lose
everything in an instant man like I I
can't imagine like if if tonight this
house and everything that I own ceased
to be mine
that would be obviously the most
traumatic thing that ever happened to me
in my life so brutal the crazy thing is
that you don't have the same ongoing
Bloodshed between the Greeks and the
Turks and so it makes me ask what is
different because you have the same
sense of the Greeks like that's not
their land to take they have no right to
that land that was our land we were
kicked out of it it's rightfully ours
you can trace it back so much you know
history of Greeks occupying the island
raising it you know from nothingness
taming it all that like I mean the
Greeks have a very long history and so
and I'm sure the Turks would say the
same thing right so even though you have
all of that you have not got the same s
like they've manag to reach
stability so the question becomes what
what is different and this is where it
seems to me that you have to at least
begin exploring the ideologies and
what's happening and again you're never
going to get either side to give up
their religion so I for me as I think
through this difficult problem I'm just
saying whatever solution you're going to
propose has to take that off the table
you cannot ask them to go oh the other
person's right their religion is correct
they're not going to do that you can't
ask them to go uh you're right we're
we're just going to move out of Israel
and hand it over they're never going to
do that and given that in 2005 the Jews
pulled out of the West Bank and out of
the Gaza Strip and it didn't solve the
conflict so they even
if another was like hey but if you just
leave this area then everything really
will be fine they don't have a reason to
believe like historically just the way
the humans are they're going to be like
no we tried that and it didn't work so
you got to take that off the table so
now it when I think about okay as I tell
entrepreneurs all the time if you have a
difficult problem to solve ask yourself
has anybody solved this problem in the
past and if you want to look at it from
apartheid cool look at South Africa what
what did they get right um or look at
some of the countries where a new nation
state was born and is that the right way
to handle this and then you can start at
least mapping out why those would or
wouldn't work and from what I hear
because the first time I heard of a
two-state solution I was like that makes
sense to me do a two yeah perfect I
can't believe I didn't think of that
right and uh and then everyone's like
yeah no nobody considers that realistic
anymore but that feels like the thing we
have to find out that that is a gap that
we'll never be able to resolve this
until we find out why having a two-state
solution won't work do you think I'm
crazy about that or because that to me
feels like you have to put your finger
on that and say why doesn't the
two-state solution exist the first
argument I think is going to
be Israel has no right to exist
they they occupied this territory and
then I'm like I get
it Cyprus again horrible [ __ ] if you
want to get the the people that I know
and love in tears all you need to do is
talk about that day so I I have seen a
similar heartache up
close but it that it's just that's going
to be militaristic right that's that's
guns death Bloodshed and is that really
a game you want play when Israel's a way
more accomplished military probably not
do you want it spreading wider in the
region speaking as a guy in America so
discount my opinion because I'm not in
it that sounds horrible to me
um and again let me leak my bias I'm
making the base assumption that we
should be trying to avoid death if if
that isn't on somebody's bingo card
that's where we'll disconnect we'll be
two ships passing night anyway so I put
my finger on that that feels like the
thing that has to be addressed and if
the punch line is from The River To The
Sea all this left is military
so yeah what where where does any of
that thinking go wrong in terms of just
finding the thing that we have to say we
have to understand this thing I don't
know that I would label any of that
thinking as wrong there's a couple of
places where I would I think it's worth
clarifying
so like I mentioned earlier I I tend to
look at everything through a lens of
practicality right value
fact vast versus truth right and you
made a base assumption about me earlier
you tried to verify it that I'm Pro
Palestine I've never I I pull heavy from
my Espionage background and one of the
key things that was taught to me by the
director of CIA by General Petraeus was
you don't disclose your position cuz if
you just as soon as you disclose your
position you've disclosed your position
I was mentioning that to you earlier
about superity right I've never
disclosed my I should have asked you 10%
questions I will I will disclose my
position for you word right so impact
Theory exclusive for anybody who cares I
am actually
pro-israel I am actually
pro-israel but the reason I'm pro-israel
is not what I think people will
understand I am pro-israel because I am
very matter factly Pro America I Am pro
United States the country that I think
should remain the dominant superpower in
the world is the United States to Aid
the United States in that
objective we must ensure the survival of
Israel and the Israeli State practically
speaking not ideologically not based on
history and and Justice and everything
else what's happening to the Palestinian
people is an atrocity it's it's a dis
it's a terrible sad thing that has
forced them into a path of revolutionary
terrorism very similar to what we saw
when when the United States was
rejecting the Civil Rights Movement when
women weren't allowed to vote and they
turned to violence like we've seen this
before and it is it is a sad tragic
thing what's happened to Palestine what
has happened to Palestine what is yet to
happen to Palestine all of that being
acknowledged as an American who wants to
see American Primacy in the future we
have to stand up and support the Israeli
State having a strategic economic and
military partner like
Israel sit next to our strategic and
Military partner that is Jordan in the
Middle East gives us an
incredible economic and Military
advantage over the entire globe that we
cannot sacrifice ideology aside if we
want to protect American lives we have
to ensure the long-term longevity
support and close relationships with the
Israeli people and with the country of
Israel that's that is my official
position what I find is so sad is that
there are so few pro-israel voices that
are giving any kind of validation to the
Palestinian plight so I want to be one
of those voices that can say we must
partner and support Israel and the way
that we partner and support them is by
finding a way for them to like protect
and and defend themselves without
turning to this kind of Destruction
because as long as they turn down this
path of destruction they're isolating
themselves from everyone else in the
world and that makes it so that we have
a very hard time standing next to them
as the beacon of freedom in the world we
have a hard time supporting Israel in
the face of everybody else including all
the countries of the United Nation and
NATO who look at us and say h how can
you stand by and let this happen how can
you support this how can you fund this
how can you encourage this not to
mention the corruption challenges that
Israel has that's so closely align with
the corruption challenges of our own
past presidential you know hopefuls and
presidents that we're trying to work
through ourselves between netanyahu's
corruption and Trump's corruption right
it's a mess and it's it's a sad mess but
the but the bottom line practical
element here is that Israel encourages
and expands National Security objectives
for the United States that doesn't mean
we should call Hamas terrorists just
because we don't want to call them
revolutionary terrorists which is really
more akin to what Malcolm X was
revolutionary terrorism right we don't
want to go down that road because it's
too nuanced for the American people
instead we're going to put big
Billboards up in major cities that say
Hamas is not just Israel's problem right
Hamas is your problem too so I say all
that because my conclusion is the same
as your conclusion the world the globe
needs to broker a two-state solution and
in a and in order to incentivize that
two-state solution we need to rally and
give the Palestinians that economic
boost that the Israelis got post World
War II let's find a way to massively
expedite their infrastructure their
their technology their their ability to
self-govern let's give them everything
they need if that means that they want
to have close ties with the Arab world
that's exactly what the Arab world has
wanted forever that's why Saudi Arabia
and Qatar and the UAE rushed to the A
the Palestinians so let's make that
happen and when when we negotiate land
let's find a way to make sure that
they're neighboring a Arab Ally like
Jordan or Egypt let's find a way to make
that happen let's make it a world
problem instead of saying it's their
problem because every pair of brothers
who has ever had an argument over
business they've needed an arbitrator to
help them they've needed the help of
others to come to a meaningful way of
resolving their conflict I'm not trying
to oversimplify it but I am saying like
a strong Israel is an America's best
interest a strong peaceful Middle East
is in America's best interest a strong
Muslim world that counterbalances Iran
is in America's best interest so we need
to find a way to let people know that
this is a more complex issue than what
they're hearing and we're not afraid of
the complexity let's lean into the
complexity and let's solve it together
because the more that America can
influence peace around the world the
more that Erica the more that America is
an influential power in the world and
when we don't step into our influence we
leave a vacuum that allows our largest
adversaries Russia China Iran to step
into that vacuum instead and that's
exactly what we're seeing in the global
world right now we're seeing not only
are those countries stepping into the
vacuum that we're leaving behind but
they're allying together so much so that
even Hollywood movies like Leave the
World Behind is literally showing what
would happen if North Korea and Iran
worked together to cut off the United
States that's why there were elements of
both languages in the movie itself right
spoiler alert but my point is if even
modern media if even Hollywood is
showing this division from east to west
that goes to show how much it's real
because art reflects
reality okay so one thing I think we
have to acknowledge if if we're going to
at least put all the pieces on the table
and I just want to reiterate I don't
have the hubus to think I am the man to
turn to to solve this problem trust me
um I would turn to you I thought that
was a really good solution man a good
solution I don't think we have a real
one yet uh because of something you
taught me which is that you really have
have to get in the mind of your enemy
and every assumption I have I know is
coming from my own frame of reference
which could not be more Western could
not be more American um and they don't
want the same things I want so I'll ask
the arguably the hardest question of all
how much does the cultural mindset of um
the Palestinians
or uh the Israeli
is this a a cultural Collision from just
the way that they view how things ought
to be that you're just never going to be
able to deal with that or is this um
well Iran is throwing so much money
around there just doing their bidding
like what what is the point of like if
I'm Iran and I want to um
destabilize Israel and get the world to
turn on them what's the lever that I
pull to get the Palestinian people to do
what I want them to do is it a religious
lever that I pull is it something else
so in the in the radicalization process
one of the things that we're taught at
CIA is that there's a there's a ladder
of radicalization an actual process for
how you radicalize an extremist and
that's an extremist whether they're a
Christian extremist or an ethnic
extremist or a Muslim extremist there's
a ladder of extremism and the first step
is validating an injustice
it's the first step because when people
believe that there's a perceived
Injustice and nobody validates that
Injustice then they are conditioned they
are they are primed to believe that
there was no Injustice and they're just
angry about
nothing so the first step in a
radicalization process is to validate an
injustice it's independent of religion
right this was done to you it should
have never been done to you and then the
next step in the radicalization ladder
is to create the aggressor who's guilty
of the
Injustice this should have never
happened to you it happened to you
because of this villain it's a story and
now you're your Injustice has been
validated and there is a group that
executed that Injustice on you the next
step in the ladder is to say there are
others like you who have been equally
treated in this unjust way by the same
group so now the person who's walking up
this ladder is like I do have a reason
to be angry they are the enemy and
there's this group that I can join
against the same enemy and you can see
how this ladder just keeps on going
until it ends with you strap a bomb to
yourself and you run into their church
and you run into their synagogue and you
blow yourself up and now you win you can
see how the ladder plays out
right the way that you defeat extremism
is by taking out the first step in the
ladder you have to take away the
Injustice
unfortunately what's happened since
October 7th has created
generational repercussions there will
not be a Palestinian for the next three
generations who does not have a visceral
memory a dead brother a dead sister a
dead child a dead mother a dead
grandmother a dead grandfather Aunts
Uncles there have been so many killed in
this attack in this counter attack since
October 7th that it's it's left a
generational
scar that is going to
be 50 years worth of work for everybody
who gets in on the action to try to
resolve this problem we will have to
face and accept that there was an
injustice that was carried out and that
we can resolve it so that instead of
taking people up a ladder of
radicalization we can take them through
a ladder of healing a ladder of of
resolution
right what happened here what is
continuing to happen every day is
fixable we can't fix what's happened
already but we can fix what we do moving
forward we can give people an option we
can give people Solutions give them
outcomes 60 Minutes can change a life if
you give them an outcome so what
outcomes can we reach that that changes
the whole trajectory of what's happening
in the Middle East we have to be willing
to to ask ourselves that question and
where the rubber really meets the road
where it gets really uncomfortable for
us is that we have to be willing to
accept that mistakes were made policy
mistakes narrative mistakes military
mistakes and that we are going to pay
the reputational and financial penalty
of those mistakes that were made we just
we have to do that if we're going to
really invest in a solution to what's
happening in the Middle East
unfortunately it is just easier when
your neighbors are fighting to just stay
out of the fight but if we really want
to stand as the leader of the Free World
we have to find a way to create freedom
for both peoples in the Middle East we
have to be invested in both peoples in
the Middle East not to mention the fact
that the closer we get to the Muslim
world the more secure we will be against
Islamic extremism because we won't be
isolated we won't stand opposite
Islam and and Muslim Evolution and
Muslim development we will find a way to
partner with it and and and not be a
world divided by boundaries and faith
and religion but a world that's
connected by a common belief and
humanity and connection we can do that
it will be expensive it will be timec
consuming it will be a lot of eating
crow and Humble Pie but if we can do it
for 50
years that doesn't seem like a long time
time consider the fact that Israel
didn't even exist before
1948 in the in the annals of time
they're less than hundred years old
they're still a young country we're
still a young country right if we can
evolve and change and come to our
adolescence then certainly they can
evolve and change before they even reach
their
adolescence again maybe that's too IDE
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impact Theory um I think that it is
probably
too um it's too idealistic maybe it's
too
paana so but it it begs the next
question which is okay um and using
enemy is is not probably ideal language
which again is a step in this whole
process of thinking through something
well understanding how you have to
change your own frame of reference which
I think is going to be a big part of
this but um if I were Consulting on this
project uh I would be really trying to
understand okay what what is the mindset
of the people that I'm dealing with what
are the things that I know I'm not going
to be able to alter so like the
religious angle I'm going to have to
find a way for them to see like a
connection or to ignore it I'm not going
to be able to get them to adopt each
other's way of thinking okay so um I
still come back to we have to have a
goal I think the go the the goal has to
be um that the Palestinians feel they
are in control of their own destiny I
just really look that is a western
notion that that not everybody in the
world agrees with so I'm very open to if
that's my fundamental flaw in my
thinking but my thinking is built upon
that that for them to really have hope
in their future and to believe that
their children's lives will be better
that they have to feel a sense that they
own their own destiny they control their
own lives they can build the nation the
way that they want to and uh so I need
to understand given that the you're not
you have to remove the idea of we're
just going to get rid of the Jewish
people you are inviting them to fight
tooth and nail uh and they're currently
so much better at that than you that
it's just a death nail uh so I would
take that off the table in terms of it's
not going to lead to the outcome I'm
going for anyway uh so if we take that
off the table then I need to understand
why the two-state solution continues to
be rejected because if it's for
religious reasons then we have to we
have to either confront that directly
and create a new narrative one thing
that I think people underestimate is the
need for off-ramps and this was
something I heard people very WI talk
about with Russia and Ukraine people
were very angry with Putin for invading
a Sovereign Nation and rightly so but if
you don't give him an offramp yep where
he can sa face and look good to his
people you are guaranteeing an
escalation correct and so while it's
gross and it's icky and [ __ ] hateful
and nobody wants to do
it it's certainly going to save lives
again what's your goal and if your goal
is I'm perfectly happy for every single
Ukrainian to Die Trying to
um push back Russia okay then uh if
that's your goal then you're making
choices that make sense with that if
that isn't your goal then putting on the
table an offramp for Putin um would be
wise because both zalinsky and Putin
need off-ramps to be able to go to their
people and say see we got a victory
right and so if I were helping advise or
negotiate I'd just be thinking about
that like how do I help them each say
face even if I think one or both of them
are horrendous I'm still going to give
them an off ramp because it's the only
way this going to happen so I'm thinking
okay like what are our off-ramps here
how do both sides get to save face and
feel like okay um we quote unquote won
this thing and that there's an
empowering narrative for both of them so
that that has to be found so whether
that is um I'm reading a book right now
called Silk
Roads really interesting
book a pretty and I don't know how
accurate is so full disclosure but uh a
really interesting take on history about
how um East and West have sort of bumped
into each other over and over throughout
time and that the author was painting
this really fascinating picture where uh
there were a time where there wasn't
seen to be a big gap between Muslims and
uh Jews and I found that very
interesting and they weren't really
bothered by the differences in each
other's Faith so anyway I would look
into that to see is there really
something there where we can paint a a
far more United Vision married to an
economic reality because if we can make
their lives better quickly then suddenly
that becomes very interesting and so
marrying it to your idea of okay how do
we uh get real infrastructure built so
that their lives really are better
whether that's education better
hospitals better roads I I don't know
there I have nothing but ignorance to
offer but there is a thing you can do
that builds a um a stable entity where
you can get food shelter water education
uh and Life starts moving in the right
direction so what are those things how
do you avoid corruption all that of
course would be hyper complicated um and
I don't know enough about the Abraham
Accords again I'm very much a headline
reader there but given how much
enthusiasm was going into that and its
economic in nature can you get that back
on track but you have to do something
where they you really are giving them a
a super tangible win yeah the the thing
that's missing I feel like in a lot of
the conversations is to understand
that what's happening in Israel is a
proxy conflict between Iran and the
United States and what does Iran want
Iran wants ultimately what Iran wants is
a Shia Crescent something they've been
after for a long time is it ideological
in nature is it power in nature it's
it's power and land mass it really is a
caliphate I don't know what a caliphate
is a
Islamic uh Homeland that stretches
Beyond Iran right and and is Shia Islam
in nature not Sunni Islam which is the
predominant Islam throughout the the
Collegian Arabic State speaking States
so that's really what Iran wants and
they they struggle to get that and the
largest counterbalance to Iran isn't the
United States it's Saudi Arabia so when
you actually hone in on the Middle East
the two big powers like counterbalancing
each other are Saudi Arabia and Iran
the United States is just an outside
player saud's a lot bigger than Iran
though by GP a lot bigger by GDP a lot
bigger by land mass however the Bread
Basket of the Middle East is Iran the
Bread Basket of that that's so
significant it means that UAE and Oman
and Jordan and Saudi Arabia all list
Iran as an enemy but they all get their
agriculture from Iran the Cucumbers the
fresh fruit the vegetables it's a carve
out so that we can continue they can
continue to have uh agricultural trade
with Iran another thing that people
don't realize is that there's carve outs
all the time that's that is the power of
Economics That's The Power of Economics
because Iran then could just choke them
all off correct but they want the money
correct Iran wants some some form of
income and revenue yeah and they've been
sanctioned in so many ways so it's just
to your point about needing an economic
and a religious solution
I don't fully disagree but I would
prioritize economics first because if
you can incentivize people economically
economics runs the world oh for sure if
you can incentivize people economically
to cooperate they will find a way for
their religions to also cooperate right
they will find a way to say hey you know
what we all come from the same Papa Bear
we all came from everybody all the
nations they come from us like let's get
along let's do that right that's
something that France can't say that's
something the United States can't say
United States defin definely can't say
that we come from anybody we're the
bastard children of everybody we just
flocked here right so there's there's
absolutely a solution there
ideologically what isn't there is a
solution economically and it's not just
about economically incentivizing the
Palestinians it's also about
economically incentivizing the Israelis
it takes two sets of economic stimulus
two sets of economic benefits and even
better if they can be economic benefits
that are comingled right so the the more
success in Israel the more success in
Palestine the more success in Palestine
the more success in Israel right create
in a sense of Independence among them
unfortunately creating independent
Partners is something the United States
is very bad at we since World War II
have specialized in creating dependent
Partners that's why NATO doesn't really
like us very much anymore that's why
France and Spain and Germany are
actively opponents of the United States
in NATO because they realize that what
we've really done is made all of Europe
dependent on the United States for their
technology for their trade for their
financial uh solvency and now the same
thing is it's difficult for the United
States to adopt a different sort of
policy than essentially economic
bullying uh and that's something we're
going to have to learn how to do right
it's it's something that I
think a pre an old generation of
capitalists believed that you had to be
the biggest in order to be
safe what I think the new era of
capitalists is learning is that we can
be
Innovative successful financially uh
independent financially Soul like
solvent we can be a lot of things and
still be totally safe because it's only
when you're competing for the top space
that you're really at risk nobody really
cares about everybody else who's just
even people who are thriving people
overlook the people who are thriving
they focus on the very poor and they
focus on the very rich so I mean running
a I I hope to one day run a $50 million
business and in the eyes of business
that's still small I think the actual
cut off for small business is $45
million a year think about that you can
run a $35 million business and still be
classified as a small business I'm not
trying to compete with hundred billion
dollar businesses or not trying to comp
up I want to make an impact I want to
build wealth I want to make a difference
in the world I want to leave a legacy
for my children much like many
entrepreneurs we want to make a splash
but we don't need to make the biggest
splash the United States wants I believe
that the United States is still the best
option of all the bad options we're the
best bad option for how the world should
lean through superpower
dominance until a better solution
presents itself I'm G to continue
investing in American Primacy that's why
my company is an American company and I
couldn't be prouder to pay American
taxes right because my business is
helping to fund a stronger America that
makes me very proud it makes me very
happy but there's plenty of Indians and
singaporeans and and ties who are also
very proud that their business is
running is building their
country proxy wars uh how serious is
this there is there are days where I
wake up and I feel like no for real for
real like we are a couple errant
missiles from this escalating and World
War III like kicks off in Earnest and
the way that I see that playing out is
if if Iran comes out of the shadows and
says you've gone too far like we have to
step in and do something and then
America has to step in to protect Israel
to make good on their promises and then
China uh starts watching that and goes
ah the US has drained its pluses in
Ukraine and now in uh Israel now is the
time for us to move on Taiwan they move
on Taiwan and now all hell has broken
loose and you legitimately have a World
War and this is one where man I'm a lay
person that can draw a pretty believable
path to how we get there and I can only
imagine somebody that actually is uh
forget what you call it like read in or
whatever like they're they're getting
like the intelligent briefs be like yeah
yeah that's that's one of the 17 ways
that this could escalate and really pop
off um am I falling into
conspiracy uh or are we really at a
tenuous moment we are really at a
tenuous moment that is that is a yes
hard yes we are at a tenuous moment
however what I would say is that what
you're falling into is not conspiracy
it's something we called
catastrophizing you're you're Paving the
road catastrophic step by cat rhic step
meaning that everybody turns to the most
destructive of all solutions before
taking a previous step right so uh for
example for someone for another country
to attack The Sovereign for another
state actor to attack the sovereignty of
the United States is something nobody
wants to do the deterrence that the
United States has through their military
through their economic power through
their reach that that
is Inc that what we call a deterrent is
so powerful it prevents people from
taking that catastrophic step the other
thing you have to account for is that
not every culture approaches conflict
the way that America approaches conflict
we are a Waring culture so we're like
blow the [ __ ] out of them we're going to
bomb we're going to kill we're going to
shoot we're going to get boots on the
ground we need tanks we need rifles we
need everything right
sunsu does not operate that way that the
entire ire Chinese poit Bureau the whole
Chinese pla doesn't operate that way
they're not a boots on the ground kick
them in whatever else they are a long
slow death by a Thousand Cuts we are a
hacksaw chainsaw shoot them up cut them
up country right so you've also got Iran
in there you've got Russia in there
you've got Israel in there you've got
Saudi Arabia in there you've got France
Germany UK all these other big players
they're all in there with their own take
on how conflict should escalate and how
conflict should be carried out so when
you catastrophize you take the
presumptive path that everybody leaps to
the most catastrophic decision whereas
you have to bake into that some level of
probability the highest probability is
that no country will attack the
sovereignty of the United States highest
probability right nobody will attack the
sovereignty of the United States so you
and me are safe inside American borders
that does not mean that Americans are
safe outside of American borders but
then you start getting into the realm of
extremism and targeted viol
against Americans because of ideological
or other purposes that becomes proxy
right so now when Americans are attacked
in kinasa uh Democratic Republic of
Congo simply because they're American
and they're attacked by congales who are
funded by you name the the country you
name Russia uh South North Korea like
whatever Iran now that becomes murky
murky is exactly what the world wants
when it comes to conflict with the
United States
because if it's murky the United States
has a hard time justifying any kind of
response that goes State tostate because
it's There's No Smoking Gun right it's
becomes just difficult enough there's
plausible deniability and that's that's
exactly what you're seeing play out here
so again going back to the whole idea
you when you reference World War II
happening when most people reference
World War II happening what they're
actually talking about is a nuclear war
similar to how World War II
ended Wars evolve like people evolve and
if anything if you've seen the evolution
of Technology you can imagine how much
more advanced World War III will be than
World War II all wars from civil to
World War II were all fought Vietnam and
Beyond were all fought over economics so
if there's a more economically viable
way to execute Warfare that is how
people will execute Warfare proxy wars
are a very economically viable way to
execute Wars economic Wars are a very
economically viable way to execute Wars
when the United States cut off Russian
bank accounts as part of their sanctions
against Russia and they cut off access
to Russian funds that were denominated
in euros and dollars that was an
economic Warfare move when China floods
the market with US Dollars and buys un
or RB off the market to change their
valuation that is an that's an act of
economic Warfare that is conflict that
is so much more cheaper and viable and
creates less uh less stress and uh
public response than actually sending
your citizens to die at the end of a at
the end of a bullet or a rocket launch
right so we have to accept that the
probability is much higher that we will
continue to see increasing proxy
conflict increasing economic conflict
and solutions other than what we call
Interstate conflict or conflict between
two Sovereign Nation States it's very
surprising what Russia did in Ukraine
very surprising because in Interstate
War like that has almost been like
eradicated the the last time that a
country invaded another sovereign
country was when the United States
invaded Afghanistan in
2003 right there was 20 something years
where no country had invaded another
country lots of Civil War but no
interstate so lots of intrastate war
Civil War but no Interstate War so it
was a a huge turn away from popular
military Doctrine but you know Putin was
playing certain odds and and I think
what we're all discovering now is what
he really cares about is eastern Ukraine
where you know the predominance of their
energy flow goes through and and that's
what he's got right now so I would say
that if you take the catastrophizing off
the table and you look at probabilities
we will continue to see more proxy wars
in more third world countries where the
United States has to fund one side and
China or Russia or or Iran have to fund
the opposite side and they'll keep vying
for influence because the economically
speaking the country with the most
markets to expand into will be the
future economic Powerhouse of the world
and economic power is what becomes the
investment for military power and that's
why the United States is dominant we've
had the economic power to invest in a
modern large military only country who's
competing with us is China and the only
reason they even have a chance to
compete with us is because for 20 years
we were heads down focusing on the
global war on terror China didn't
participate in the global war on terror
they spent 20 years with their heads up
stealing secrets and building
infrastructure so that when we finally
looked up we realized oh [ __ ] like
they're growing fast and we got to
change something Elam mus says over the
last I think 20 years that the
architecture in China has become far
more impressive than what's happening in
the
US what do you think the US would look
like had we taken all that foreign aid
that we've been sending to Wars and not
just foreign aid but to fight the wars
but also to proxy war um would it look
dramatically different yeah I think the
United States would look very very
different I think we would see I'm not
saying that I think it would look
necessarily better but I am saying it
would look very different keep in mind
that a lot of the investment that went
into Chinese infrastructure excuse me
was investment into uh State
surveillance
systems tracking populations um tracking
State
IDs making sure people stayed in their
Lane and were only given the
opportunities that the state just
thought they deserved I don't think that
that's the direction we as Americans
would want to go I hope not but if we
were to have taken the hundreds of
billions that we spent in our Wars
abroad and put them into National
Security and other uh devices here in
the US for all we know that that could
have been one of the options that we
pursued was a large scale Statewide
security system that uh that on the
piggyback of that is a state
surveillance system very similar to what
you see actually in UAE and Saudi
Arabia that's really interesting when
you first said that it would look
different but you're not sure it would
look better I was like where is he going
with this that is very interesting and
yes right now people seem to be way more
interested in safety then they do
Freedom which it's funny cuz as a kid I
mean we have a state New Hampshire if
I'm mistaken Live Free or Die is the
state motto and people now were like
what do you mean like of course safety
is more important than Freedom like it
it's it's flipped so hard from what it
was like when I was a kid when I was a
kid man it was like it was all about
that like Give Me Freedom or give me
death like I remember uh I think that's
the line that uh oh no uh in Braveheart
when you said you can take my life but
you can't take our freedom or something
like that um man it's different vibe now
did I uh and correct tell me if I've if
I'm repeating myself but did I walk you
through the civilization pyramid the
last time I was here o I've heard you in
so many different places I can't tell
you if it was here or not but please
give us a refresher so I feel like
what's happening is we're seeing the
civilization pyramid actually play out
and and the civilization pyramid is a
pyramid that talks about exactly what
you're what you're describing the
exchange of freedom and security the
bottom of the pyramid is all of our
individualism right you hunt and gather
for you I hunt and gather for me you
live in your cave I live in my cave and
I don't I don't have any say on what you
do you don't have any say on what I do
and if we need to fight then let's fight
to the death individualism at the bottom
end of that pyramid where we all started
where some countries still very much are
right moving up the pyramid the next
tier is tribalism which is like hey our
caves are next to each other you're
really good at hunting and gather at
hunting I'm really good at Gathering
let's team up and now we'll capture
efficiencies because if you're ever sick
I can make sure I collect enough food
for both of us and if I'm ever sick you
can make sure there's enough food for
both of us so now as a tribe we're safer
and to hell with the other tribes if
they come across the river if they come
if they start hunting our buffalo we'll
kill them so it's a step above
individualism it gives us some
efficiency because we have scalability
it gives us some security because we
have each other and we're United under
the banner of a tribe then next and
final peer uh uh level of the pyramid is
the state and as you move up from
individualism to the state you start to
give up your independent freedoms but in
exchange the state is able to push down
scalable efficiencies and solutions so
now there's a standing military that
keeps you safe now there's there's
Public Utilities that bring you water
now there's hospitals that bring you
medicine now there's insurance now
there's businesses now there there's
bakeries now there's all this stuff that
the state helps to facilitate so that
you don't have to depend on your tribe
in fact if you want to live in
California or in Austin Texas or in
Florida or in New York you can pick your
tribe you can pick where you want to go
because you're all part of the state if
you take the state off the top of the
pyramid and you move the rest of the
pyramid aside you have another pyramid
and that's different levels of the state
right so at the bottom tier of the state
you basically have your your
uh organized State that's very the
government's very small and it gives
people maximum freedom and you know it's
your it's your
uh uh political parties that don't want
to interfere or interfere with anybody
else's political party and then as you
move up you have what we consider to be
like uh conservative State Management
which is you know we have enough
government but not too much government
it creates guidelines but not heavily
regulate not heavily regulated we focus
on maximizing efficiency we minimize uh
policing our people right and then you
have the highest level of the state
which is very much your kind of
socialist or authoritarian state where
everything is regulated everything is
heavily managed everything is heavily
policed so when you put this smaller
pyramid back on top of the original
pyramid you have six levels of
civilization basically right the theme
with all of it is that as you climb the
pyramid you are giving up freedoms in
exchange for efficiencies the beautiful
thing about the United States is that we
are a country where we slow down our
political processes because we have two
parties that are always fighting and
vying right so that forces us to slow
down which usually results in a
more popular more wellth thought out
solution even though we haven't quite
seen it play out that way recently but
we slow down the velocity so we make
better stronger decisions that are more
time time tested but we also give
individuals the right to move up and
down the PID as they choose so if you
want to be a prepper in Kentucky that
lives off the grid you go right down the
pyramid and there you go you can if you
want to be a hyper you know socialist
you know publicly declared communist
that lives in whatever New York you can
and both people are protected by the
laws of the land but they live at
different parts of the pyramid so to
your point I feel like we are absolutely
at this precipice in world events where
we have to kind of decide what we want
to do as individuals but the larger
question is as individuals we all also
have a say in what we do as a nation and
that is going to be the larger impact on
what we leave behind do you know what
stucks inet is yeah okay so give people
a quick primer in in the context
of that was the moment that I realized
oh there's a whole world happening that
I just didn't realize was real I thought
it was only in movies but like this
whole Espionage game is deep is deep
yeah so and I would love to go more into
that too but so Stu Net Quick primer uh
stuck net was a was a piece of code that
was developed specifically to uh
interact with what we knew at the time
to be the Software System running
Iranian uranium enrichment um facilities
yeah there was a very specific tool it
was um no uh oh it's going to come back
to me here the the what is it when
something the cug the cuge word I won
whatever game we're
playing so stuck net was a piece of code
that was designed specifically to
interact with the centrifuge that was
used to enrich uranium and Iranian
facilities that's what it was designed
to do it was deployed it was successful
and then the Iranian facility connected
those centrifuges with the larger
internet and when that happened stuck
net carried out continued to propagate
out of the Iranian facility and into the
entire Digital Universe so depending on
Whose story you read right now
essentially every digital device that's
been connected to the internet at any
point since like
2007 is infected with Stu net that's
crazy but Stu net was so welld designed
that it only has a negative effect on
the cuge operating system that was used
by the Iranian nuclear facility at the
time so bananas okay so how deep does a
rabbit hole go like there's like a whole
battle being fought Ray Delio talks
about the five types of War one of them
is
technological um how deep is that
war the Espionage war or the
technological War the Espionage War so
let's let's start with the Espionage War
because this is this is a point that I
love making that not everybody
understands right
2016 the the election where Trump became
president it became mainstream news that
the Russians were suspected to be
interfering with the election and the
world went
crazy right the American people went
bananas FBI Secret Service Facebook had
to change their algorithms Twitter was
on The Chopping Block for for
contributing to Russian covert influence
operations right you remember oh yes why
the hell do we think 2016 was the first
time that
happened why would we think that because
we caught them in
2016 I mean if we caught them in 2016
how many elections did they influence
successfully before that where we never
caught them and that's just one country
what about China what about France what
about Israel what about Germany what
about Brazil what about India I mean
there's there's as many countries out
there there's 16 what 64 I think
countries right
now every one of them has something to
gain by influencing the outcome of the
American election why would we think
that nothing ever happened prior to
2016 why would we think that the
presidents we've elected even in just
yours and mine timeline why do we think
Bush was chosen by the American people
why do we think Obama was chosen by the
American people why do we think these
people came to power of their own
independent uninfluenced no foreign
activity hard work it's probability wise
it's
extremely unprobable like it's it's
improbable that these people came to
power and there wasn't also some country
engaging in covert influence that was
contributing to the outcome of the
election Jesus that's how deep it goes
it's silly for us to think that just
because we see it that means that it's
started then it's like seeing a roach in
your apartment right if you see a roach
in your apartment that's not the only
roach the walls are disgusting with
roaches right we saw it in 2016 that
means it's been there for a long long
time are why do we think George
Washington became the first president of
the United States because he earned it
and the American people voted for
him France was the reason we won the
American Revolution you don't think that
had something to do with you don't think
France had a say and who became the
leader of the new United
States now I'm not saying that all of
our presidents have been given to us by
foreign powers that's not what I'm
saying but what I am part of the
equation it's a part of the equation and
you can't ignore that part of the
equation right so now we have our entire
political system is constantly in some
embroiled in some sort of battle with
Espionage and that's just our political
system our DOD I don't know how much you
keep up with Espionage news um Russia
has penetrated the Army's medical Corps
two army officers were arrested just
three months ago whoa uh recruited spies
recruited by the
Russians yeah we've had nuclear nuclear
Naval Engineers recruited by the Chinese
who have also been arrested in the last
3 to four months I heard about that one
like we are heavily penetrated heav
targeted heavily penetrated by all the
services in the world and there there's
a famous quote out there um in the world
of foreign policy that says there are no
permanent friends or enemies just
permanent interests whoa that's good so
why do we think anybody is a friend why
do we think an ally is a friend if you
recall there was a major issue I think
it was
200 10 maybe 2011 where the German
Chancellor was notified that the
American NSA was spying on the Germans
wow we have had people go to jail from
our Navy who were recruited in working
as spies for the Israelis what like this
history tells you the story it's just
that nobody really spends time
researching Espionage history so we have
to understand how laughably predictable
are human beings we are so laughably
predictable that
we you and I can predict that people
aren't even aware
that arrests are happening every few
months of spies in the United States in
the military in
politics right in the Department of
State in the Department of Commerce in
the White House like it's not surprising
unless you let yourself be surprised
which again it's a predictable human
thing to just if we don't know about it
then it must not exist and then it's
also predictably human to to assume that
a friend is a
friend there are no permanent friends
right that's there are people from my
life 13 to 25 that are not my friend
anymore because our interests
diverged and that's normal that's
natural and it's also normal and natural
to feel pain when it comes when you
outgrow somebody or when you have to
leave somebody behind because your
interests have diverged and the saddest
thing to me is the people who when when
they feel that pain when they feel that
dissonance of leaving behind something
from the past they instead choose to
give up on the ambition and double down
on the anchor yeah getting trapped by
these are my friends I don't want to
leave them behind that's crazy I don't
want to um get off this topic though
this is
um never in a million years did I think
that this kind of thing would interest
me but also never in a million years
that I think that we'd be living through
a transitional moment where the US is a
declining superpower against a a rising
superpower in China um that as of the
recording of This the bricks Nations
Brazil Russia India China and South
Africa are making moves to create their
own currency to stop trading in US
dollar so the dollar hemony is it's been
under attack for a very very very long
time so I don't want to make this a
headline that people panic about but it
certainly does feel like there's there's
a lot happening right now um that is
super unnerving and if it's got my
attention um which this is really
something that I'm slow to react to but
if it's got my attention I think that
it's reaching a certain level now it
could just be social media makes things
like this visible to even me um but
everybody I talk to Ray Delio who I pay
very very close attention to for people
that don't know him he's runs ran just
recently sort of retired the largest
hedge fund in the world so nobody's made
more money off of being right about
what's happening in geopolitics than
this guy uh and he he's like yeah we
we're at the four types there's five
types of war that I mentioned earlier
we're in four of them with China already
the only one we're not in is an actual
Hot War where people are shooting
guns what's your take on the global
stability right
now so unfortunately I would say that
the the world the
Globe is fairly
stable the question is what's the
foundation of that stability the
foundation for the stability of the
world for a long time has been the
United States we are seeing that
transition just like you said right it's
uh it's that place where you where you
slide the pizza off the pizza pan and
onto the cutting board right who we've
been the pizza pan for a long time and
now it's sliding to someone else the
pizza is still very stable but what's
the platform what's the
foundation I am always optimistic that
the United States will recover it will
change its ways we'll find a way to
reunify the incredible by like the
incredible polarity that we're in right
now and get focused on the one true goal
American
Primacy do you think that's possible in
a world where I know you know just
saying American Primacy it like puts you
at risk of being canceled like people
just there there is a contingent I won't
even say how big it is but they're
[ __ ] loud there is a contingent of
people and it could be large that just
that's offensive I understand it I I I
do I understand it and that's that's
okay I I hope that doesn't happen on
your show right you'll get some of it to
be sure no I'm not worried about it
happening to me I just hope nobody
cancels your show Rich for that
but the truth is
um American survival is not being
threatened we don't have an existential
threat to the United States existential
threats are the threats that make people
move we talk about existential threats
more likely other countries talk about
existential threats and an ex what is an
existential threat a true existential
threat is a threat that challenges your
very existence
the existence of the United States is is
contingent upon the existence of the
United States government not Americans
like we sometimes think that Americans
make the United States the United States
is a is a representative republic
government that has never existed before
that now exists so if that government
Falls or if that government cracks or
breaks all the people will still be here
right but America will be gone so the
existential threat to the United States
is the one that would trigger Americans
to react now we've come close to those
moments 911 is one of those times when
all Americans that felt awesome for a
hot minute it felt so good the unity
like yeah yeah all the sudden all of our
differences melted away right the same
thing happened at Pearl Harbor all of
our differences melted away because we
had a common enemy and we
could individually see the existential
threat posed to our country yeah and our
livelihood since 9/11 we have not had
that kind of a
threat countries around us have woken up
to the fact just like uh emperor hito in
World War II said I fear we have woke a
sleeping
Dragon our enemies have learned that
Americans are slow to react but when
they react they react in full force
there's no way a Savvy
intelligent superpower competitor GPC
Global power competitor is going to
trigger an existential threat to the
United States because they know that as
long as they basically let us
uh segment ourselves separately as long
as we insulate ourselves separately
we're going to eat ourselves to death
with our own stupid little bitter
squabbles about American Primacy right
or about woke culture or about represent
about who knows what we're going to
we're going to just waste our time
bickering in our little room and we're
not going to wake up to what's happening
in the entire
building that's the strategy of the
future that's is to keep us divided it's
not to keep it's a an influence campaign
is always cheaper easier and more Su and
has a higher probability of success than
a military campaign so an influence
campaign is basically like hey don't
forget that you have race issues hey
don't forget that there's a
socioeconomic divide hey don't forget
that the South tried to secede from the
union one like like just they're just
picking they're just poking and throwing
salt on a wound and then we are fighting
over it right and we fill our days
worrying about this garbage blind to
what's happening on the larger scale
blind to the fact that the Fantastic
example is the global war on
terrorism the United States led the
global war on terrorism following 911
right and it felt good for a hot minute
like you said we were all on the same
page and we were all in this fight then
that fight lasted 10 years and then that
fight lasted 20 years also it became so
dodgy like what we were like if we had
just been Relentless about Osama Bin
Laden like when I heard how we caught
him in like the size of a shadow I don't
know if that's true but like it sounded
dope and I was just like dude we're
ninjas this is amazing but that was
after like a lot of and look I'm I'm not
super engaged in this stuff so I'm
definitely popping off ignorance
but it did not feel good as a casual
Observer where we ended up going and how
we ended up fighting and all that and it
just seemed like wait what are we doing
right so that felt like a squandered
opportunity well during those 20 years
while we were mastering the art of
hunting terrorism hunting terrorists in
mountains in Pakistan and Afghanistan
what were our Global power competitors
doing was Russia engaged in the global
war on terror was China involved in the
global war on terror so all the hundreds
of billions of dollars that we spent in
that war
we spent in a war that was a giant
distraction for us that gave our closest
near-peer competitors 20 years to invest
their money and grow to become a larger
threat than we were even aware they were
becoming right then China all of a
sudden China has multiple aircraft
carriers and they're launching aircraft
from aircraft carriers and they can
project power into the South Asian
Seas that's insane right all of a sudden
like the the the Russian Federation is
in close relationships with the Chinese
and the syrians and the North Koreans
and the Iranians how do we just wake up
to this and that's that's what happens
it happens because we are still an
adolescent country so we get very myopic
and we become very focused on the thing
that we're playing with right now and we
lose the larger sight the larger
Vision the the world has watched us do
this for too long
and they don't make the same mistake
twice especially not authoritarian
countries because authoritarian
countries have the benefit of
authoritarian rulers that sit in an
office or sit in a place in a chair for
15 20 30 years right they don't deal
with the kind of tumult and transition
that we have in the United States I
believe our constant change of
leadership is part of what makes us
strong but we haven't yet learned how to
have a change in leadership without a
change in focus
that's what we haven't quite learned to
do yet so we're giving our authoritarian
enemies an opportunity to have Focus for
a long period of time against us while
we don't have that against them I am a
little worried about what's going to
happen in 2024 I won't lie um if it ends
up being a trump Biden runoff what do
you think happens especially if Trump
wins I think that if you're not
preparing for that eventuality it would
be wi to prepare for that eventuality
highest the highest two
probabilities are that either Trump wins
the presidency or Biden wins the
presidency so just speaking practically
again mentally as a business owner as a
father as a husband I'm preparing
for one of these two things there's a
90% chance that one of these two things
is going to happen so let me be ready
for that and then the last 10% I'll let
surprise me right but I mean who knows
it's it's difficult it's also important
to understand that we all focus on the
president the
president what powers the president has
are granted to them by the Legislative
Branch we've gone through about a
30-year period where our legislative
branch has been giving more power to the
executive branch specifically because
the legislative branch is trying to
cover their own ass they want to be
lifetime legislators they don't want to
be responsible for the people and they
don't want to be accountable to the
people so instead they want to be able
to say you voted me into off office and
the president doesn't let me do my job
because I gave him all of my authority
so part of what we need to do is see the
legislative branch take back the power
from the president which they can do
with a vote the president doesn't need
to give them power back they can take
power back but they do need to give the
president power he can't take power from
the legislative branch so in both cases
whether it's Biden or whether it's Trump
the real impact there is just how the
world sees the United States and then
the fact that both presidents presidents
have the right to build their cabinet
however they choose to build their
cabinet so they both are going to bring
in their cronies they're both going to
bring in their yes people they're both
going to bring in people who are who are
uh biased towards their own political
Futures they're not nobody really at the
top is thinking about what's in the best
interest of the American people because
we've created
this self-licking ice cream cone where
where
politics uh is about rewarding the
politician with politics instead of
there's there's no incentive to serve
the American people especially not when
the American people are split like we're
split right now so it's it's tough man
it's tough and I I will say that what my
wife and I keep an eye on is less it's
less about whether or not Donald Trump
becomes president and it's more about
how will
individuals exercise their legal Powers
how will individuals exercise their
civic responsibilities
when the outcome is announced will
that's a fancy way of saying something
yeah will they will they Revolt there we
go or will they go to the [ __ ] table
and vote every two years on the lowest
levels of government so that you can
actually affect the change in the
government I it's it's I don't I it
breaks my heart when I see Americans
[ __ ] complain and pick it let alone
when I see them shoot and raid and
invade right all of that stuff is
something that we should be passed what
what we should be doing now is
exercising our Civic rights our Civic
duties our Civic Powers because we have
the power to affect everything up the
chain if we just exercise it if we're
willing to
let things slow down and if we're
willing to cut out some of the volume
and actually do things the way that has
always made America great we've always
been stronger because we have a
bureaucratic process that allows us to
slow things down allows us all the time
and the space to learn and ingest and
accept and internalize what we believe
to be true when we move at lightning
speed we can be duped we can be confused
we can be tricked let ourselves slow
down embrace the fact that we slow down
if we didn't slow down we'd be [ __ ]
China an authoritarian rule we're
literally things change at the drop of
one person's Public Announcement we
don't want that we don't don't want that
we want something different yeah I mean
I'm 100% on board with that so as you
look at this with your analyst eyes um
what do you think will be the reaction
to let's say a trump getting elected
because my concern is uh when watching
the Sam Harris thing happen on the
internet I don't know how closely you
paid attention to that but basically the
entire internet turned on what I think
is one of the smartest most thoughtful
people I think he's wrong but to your
point about you want to triangulate
anyway you're not just going to listen
to one person Sam is right about so many
things um but he I I believe I
understand Sam maybe better than a lot
of people in that the thing that Sam
believes is that Donald Trump is an
existential threat and when someone
becomes an existential threat meaning it
could wipe out Humanity I want to be
very clear about what an existential
threat is uh that it it's a whole new
set of rules baby and you do whatever
you have to do
and that if Sam who is incredibly smart
and extremely thoughtful and I think a
hyperoral person um but I also think
he's wrong about this so my thing is
okay I think the real problem we have is
we don't agree on what constitutes an
existential threat I actually don't know
that we disagree about what do in the
face of a true existential threat but
like when I look at Trump getting
elected I'm like please Jesus no but at
the same time I don't see it as an
existential threat so and I look at like
we we had four years with them it what
the world didn't end everybody like but
at the same time other people look at it
and like bro we we dodged a nuclear
weapon like what are you talking like it
could be the end of humanity if he gets
elected again that freaks me out
the fact that people think hey him
getting elected could end the world now
if this were like Fringe crazies I'd be
like whatever yeah this is coming from
some of the smartest people I know that
are they're very good at thinking
through problems so of course Part of Me
Goes is he an existential threat like I
don't think I'm the Arbiter right so I'm
captain and distrust yourself but as so
the only thing I'm saying is when I
analyze the situation there are enough
people that believe that he is an actual
existential threat that if he gets
elected I think you have a problem I
don't think uh look I'm a big believer
that America's freakishly resilient I
don't think it
collapses but do I think that at a
minimum we take another step towards the
Civil War yes I really do that that one
really freaks me out like I I can buy
into the proxy wars that World War III
is going to be fought very
surreptitiously there won't be as much
thought to the war okay don't love it
still very high stakes still makes me
very tense but that's a lot better than
say a World War II um but dude in the
summer of 2020 I sat on my balcony and
watched La
burn and that wasn't even around
existential threats right so yeah I
don't know and I don't know what's worse
and again I'll ask you with your your
CIA analyst sat on what's worse Trump
getting elected or Trump not getting
elected so I'll start by saying that I
disagree with all the smart people that
you're referencing right now and I would
gladly who think he's an existential yes
I would gladly sit in front of anybody
who believes that Trump is an
existential threat and have a healthy
debate on any topic they want to talk
about because I have actually seen
existential threats and Trump is not
that can you paint an existential threat
picture an existential
threat is is imminent it means that it
is the last step before the holistic
destruction the existence destroying
from
existence the the Target that it is
threatening right
so let's consider a battleship right a
Hypersonic cruise missile will destroy a
battleship right it is not an
existential threat to the battleship
even though it will destroy the
battleship it is not an existential
threat to the battleship because if even
one soldier
survives the memory of that battleship
in current memory still exists not to
mention all of the documentation about
the battleship existing and then they
rebuild a new one they give it the same
moniker and it's right back in service
again right it is a perilous threat
it is not an existential threat truly
existential threats are things that will
wipe you off the face of the Earth right
Iran wants to wipe Israel off the face
of the earth that is an existential
threat and when they say that when they
announc that they were talking about
Israel the state and Jews they want to
destroy them na Germany posed an
existential threat to the Jewish faith
literally a systematic commitment to
destroying an entire generation like the
entire existence of it forever taking it
off the world the world stage forever
that is an existential threat what
happens is that we have become spoiled
in our
terminology catastrophizing has become
so common that now to get people
emotional to get people to move on their
on their beliefs you have to ramp
everything up to get past the volume and
the velocity of data you have to say the
next most extreme thing when you say the
most extreme thing long enough if you
call yourself stupid enough times guess
what you start to believe you start to
believe you're stupid right so when you
tell people enough times it's an
existential threat it's an existential
threat it's an existential threat you
start to actually believe wow maybe it
really is an existential threat without
stopping to
think in one presidency no president
Trump or anybody no president can
disband two of the three branches the
only thing the president can really do
is write an executive order about the
executive branch
if our Congress exists We Exist if our
judicial branch exists we exist right
and the other two branches are there to
keep the executive branch in power so
one four-year presidency one eight-year
presidency two eight-year presidencies
with President Trump is not with a
future president Trump is not going to
be the end of America could it do
significant damage absolutely but it's
not an existential threat it just isn't
it doesn't threaten to end the United
States it threatens to make life
difficult but lots of things threaten to
make life difficult we can't guarantee
that Trump comes into office and
somehow everything changes for the
better who knows we don't we don't
actually know there's there's a term
that we use in in uh intelligence
operations called The Cone of
uncertainty and if you imagine like a
funnel or a cone or you know a pennant
whatever it's a it's a certain shape the
timeline of known reality goes right up
to the beginning of the cone and then
where you see the actual cone
that becomes an area of predictable
confidence that you can guess within but
where that cone ends everything past the
cone is totally unpredictable you have
no confidence about what will happen one
way or the other so unless there is an
existential threat the threatening the
existence and future existence of
something within that cone then you
can't really take it as a as a level of
confidence one way or the other so my
recommendation to those people
catastrophizing and everybody who's
feeling that pressure that anxiety have
a plan for When Donald Trump is
announced as the winner of the
presidency have a plan for it hope and
vote against it all you want but don't
let it happen without a plan for what to
do next we have a plan for what to do
next our plan takes us out of the United
States if Donald Trump becomes the
president and our country takes a turn
for the worst we're leaving the United
States we already have the plan if if
Joseph Biden wins the presidency and the
United States takes a turn for the worse
we're leaving the United States that's
our plan doesn't mean that we're not
proud to be Americans it just means that
where we are in our lives with our
children with our business with what
we're trying to do in our personal
mission it is not to fix the United
States right now we'll let other people
who are passionate about that fix the
United States right now we're going to
go grow our family and take care of our
family grow our business grow our impact
pay our taxes and make sure the United
States has the resources it needs to get
through its
adolescence but other people are very
dedicated to being part of the solution
right now and I applaud those people and
I want to give them the resources they
need to be that level of impact it's
interesting when you said earlier that
um you were you really believed in the
supremacy of the US I knew that you plan
to leave I thought it was a longer
timeline than that um that's very
interesting so that tells me that you
think
that uh well let me not put words in
your mouth are you saying that if one of
those two gets elected that there is a
distressingly high probability of a bad
turn yes I would agree with that
statement completely okay wa regardless
of which two we're picking between two
bad
options and that's just where we are
right now unfortunately I think there
are good options on the table who one of
the options that I would actually
personally love to see take the
presidency is Nikki Haley I don't even
know who that is I hear her that's why
she's not gonna win so I hear her name
all the time I I'm gonna have to watch
something I don't know what she looks
like never heard her voice I think of
all the things that the country could
really benefit from right now it's a
female level-headed Centrist and even
though she runs on the Republican ticket
she is very much a her her narrative is
a very Centrist narrative and I really
like the idea of our country kind of
coming out of this 8year
Disaster by showing that one of the
things that makes us so powerful is our
diversity and I think we are at a time
now where a strong female leader would
be welcomed here unfortunately I think
that that Hillary Clinton in many of the
years that she was running wasn't the
right fit at the right time I think
Nikki Haley might be different than that
but that doesn't mean she's got any
traction that doesn't mean it's going to
happen but it is one of those 10%
outcomes where all of a sudden I see
like sunlight instead of more rain and
and snow did she run last cycle no it's
the first time she's run and
unfortunately she's showing a lot of the
a lot of the uh um
neopit making classic mistakes yeah
arguing over petty stuff and debates and
blah blah blah blah blah and not really
showing that she's above all that and to
be president you got to be above all
that frivolity either you've got to do
the Obama approach and just not address
it or you got to do the Trump approach
and address it jovially and make light
of it Joi I love that yeah I got the
best words I've got the best words I'm
the best no one's ever had words this
good I cannot do an impression to save
my life but uh yeah the way he talks is
hilarious yeah yeah uh okay what do you
think of vivec ramaswami I wanted to
like VC a lot but you don't I wanted to
like him a lot I still think that he's
got he's he's made so many positive
Impressions on me but at the same time
he just he's not been consistent in
terms of thei Impressions right picking
fights with Nikki Haley over silly
things like Tik Tok and personal atts on
her family come on man you got to act
presidential I loved when he came out of
the gates he's prepared he's a minority
he's young so many things there that
that you could that anybody could rally
behind in love but then there's these
behavioral challenges where you're like
dude the last thing I want to do is have
you be negotiating with the prince of
Saudi Arabia and you're going to jab him
on one of his wives like no that's not a
good idea for us no thank you right
again neoy beginner kind of error that
he's going to try to fix up but that's
just that's where we are right now and
again going back to the original
question there's there is a very solid
chance that a trump or a Biden
presidency is going to change its course
even 15 or 30 degrees change its course
focus on American needs focus on
American economy maybe even apologize
for bad calls in the past who knows good
luck with that one but they can they can
change the course and make significant
benefits but if they stay their
course then it's just more pain for all
of us and we can't we we can't stand by
idly and let that happen this this the
pyramid the civilization pyramid is not
worth just sitting by and being silent
we have a chance to impact our state we
should for a deep dive on the global
economy check out my conversation with
bology
shavasan the problems go all the way to
the Bedrock of the financial system in
terms of treasuries being the new toxic
waste it's going to be at least as bad
as 2008 but probably worse than that